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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » REMAIN lead drops to lowest level yet in ComRes phone poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » REMAIN lead drops to lowest level yet in ComRes phone poll for ITV
Remain” leads “Leave” by seven points according to the latest ComRes poll for ITV News (fieldwork conducted over the weekend, before the events in Brussels).
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Remain - still in lead.
Leave - trending towards them.
What's not to like?
They could be even more wrong on the final result than the GE, and this is a binary choice election
L.A.Times poll 3/25/80 Favorables: Anderson 68%; Kennedy 60%; Carter 51%; Ronald Reagan 30%.
In March 1980, Reagan was trailing Carter by 15 pts.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/03/337295/
As an outsider Trump's path is similar to Reagan's, HRC's problem is she is already struggling in the polls, especially in the key swing states. All down hill from here.
The polling shows that Clinton is beatable by a generic Republican candidate. Trump only has to detoxify himself sufficiently to make the election a referendum on Clinton which she will lose.
I think it'll be closer to a GE turnout than the AV referendum turnout
When, in fact, crossover had happened long before.
If the same holds true, it could be good for leave.
If. It could equally work the other way.
Since Basil is obviously England, we need a Euro-equivalent. How about Freddie Frog?
Trump 41 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 18 - Sample 353
Clinton 55 .. Sanders 37 - Sample 391
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/d0335f8b-d571-463c-88ec-729620d17068.pdf
Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.
ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.
The wind is blowing on the sails of Leave, they are moving up.
Yes my token black friend, who also conveniently doubles up as my token labour supporting friend, is a firm leave. As a young Londoner like myself, he sees Brexit as an opportunity to raise wages, job opportunities, living standards and lower housing costs.
Leave will win.
lifepolling, Jim, but not as we know it."Mike Gapes, live from hospital, reckons an induced coma saved him from the hostile list. https://t.co/jz7w5cH4Po https://t.co/kewxVu6jci
That Comres 45+ weighting is a complete and utter shocker.
Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
Demographics are also not abstract concepts. It's the reason why important swing states are trending blue and why the "identity politics" see Trump losing massively with hispanics, AA and at a significant disadvantage with women. Your theories were used by McCain and Romney cheerleaders - Hoping for third time lucky?
#Breaking Student Suhaib Majeed is convicted at the Old Bailey of plotting to kill soldiers, police officers and civilians in shootings
Court News
Suhaib Majeed and Tarik 'the sugeon' Hassane, who went to the same west London Mosque as Jihadi John, face life for IS terror plot
The slow process of winning people over and negating any fears in action. Plenty of time for Trump to win people over, as Reagan demonstrated.
There's some pretty motivated Pro EU people out there too.
Think the Lib Dems, the Labour right, possibly the Greens and various Nat parties.
They just aren't voluble as the Leavers.
Fear of the unknown is greater than fear of the known. The status quo, the power of inertia, is significant. Remain has all the major parties on its side (unless you count UKIP, which is purging the non-believers and led by a man whose talent is eclipsed by his ego). Big business is also pro-EU.
Leave has print media (in the main) but I can't think of any other comparable area where it has dominance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eVu6Wihbp4Q
Trump's name has been synonymous with success and wealth in black hip-hop culture for years. He has experience and contacts across the entertainment business and will be able to turn out unexpected celebrity endorsements. Clinton will be forced to spend far too much time fighting on turf that will not help her with the voters she needs to turn out for her to win.
How did Molenbeek become Europe’s jihadi base? Essentially, it has to do with Belgium’s messy governance and the culture of denial that pervades the debate about Islam in the country. Molenbeek is a vibrant community, with narrow streets and a busy street life. There is a teahouse on every corner, a quiet mosque on every block, where people can congregate undisturbed. There are cheap apartments galore, no questions asked. Just like the guerrilla can hide in the jungle, jihadis feel safe in the disorganized Kashba of Molenbeek. The highway and the city’s busiest international railroad station are a stone’s throw away. It’s the perfect logistical base.
... The lack of a strong, central authority may be one of the many quirks of this sometimes charmingly dysfunctional country, .... also creates the perfect breeding ground for potential terrorists.
But the most important factor is Belgium’s culture of denial. The country’s political debate has been dominated by a complacent progressive elite that firmly believes society can be designed and planned. Observers who point to unpleasant truths such as the high incidence of crime among Moroccan youth and violent tendencies in radical Islam are accused of being propagandists of the extreme-right, and are subsequently ignored and ostracized.
http://www.politico.eu/article/molenbeek-broke-my-heart-radicalization-suburb-brussels-gentrification/
She trots out all the usual arguments, e.g. 'the EU has prevented war', 'millions of jobs at stake', etc, etc. And like hardcore leavers, *nothing* will convince her otherwise.
I reckon there are lots like her. They're just too busy to argue on t'Internet ...
Fear of the unknown could easily apply to us remaining in the EU. What kind of EU will there be in 10 years? 20 years?
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/anti-corbyn-labour-mps?utm_term=.osZyr4xRE
It's not as simple as looking at old versus young as even a quarter of the elderly don't vote. Elderly ABC1s will turnout, a lot of elderly C2DEs don't - and they're polling leave.
In 12 Romney repulsed the blue collar white workers in the Rust Belt in particular, but really across the nation, leading to a catastrophically low non college educated whites turnout of just 57%. Trump's strength is with these voters.
In 08 and 12 Obama drove a historically high turnout amongst blacks, won't happen this time.
It certainly took an effort for the GOP to come up with a candidate held in a worse light than Clinton. But one thing over the past decade you may rely on the Republican Party is that they have developed an innate ability to cock-up POTUS elections.
That is really all there is to this referendum. It's time to shake hands, dissolve a partnership that has run its course, and go our separate ways.
That can be overcome but requires us to engage our much more rational neo-cortex part of our brain, which is much harder work as a conscious decision needs to be made to use it.
Patrick OFlynn
If you disagree with the suspension of Suzanne Evans please sign this petition calling for it to be rescinded https://t.co/8vPeaA4W8Q
Florida @ Evens (Democrats) (On at 11-10)
North Carolina 6-4 (Democrats) (On at 8-5)
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winning-party
Overall GOP @ 9-4 (Sort of on this for loads already)
Look to be incorrectly correlated to me.
It won't be anything like 10-20 years before the EU becomes intolerable for the UK. More like 3-5.
"In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU."
The voters with the highest turnout are white, 55+, who own their own homes outright. Currently, they favour Leave.
As an aside, I reckon if we don't vote to leave, then another country will go through exactly the same process as we are. It might even be one of the larger countries such as France. How the EU reacts to that will be interesting.
While simultaneously young ABC1s will vote Remain by a higher margin than young C2DEs.
Both of which will assist Remain compared to just looking at age alone. White 55+ homeowners do have the highest turnout but won't form 51% of the vote on their own.
Saying "our pay rate for Saturdays is more important than even emergencies" is a complete reversal of messaging.
btw I think your scenario re. France or another large country moving close to EU exit is pretty fanciful. There is nothing like the animus against the EU that there is in the UK in any of the other major member states.
The only other EU member I could see conceivably leaving, or threatening to do so, in the next few years is Hungary.
Yes, pixiepants. All you have to do is wave a magic wand, squeeze your eyes tight shut and wish very hard and you'll be safe. Promise.
"The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account:"