Fascinating

Plato_Says said:

The chappy who ran off from the airport left the biggest bomb undetonated, after shoving it away.

Bottled it at the last moment by the looks of it - thankfully.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/belgium/12202137/Brussels-attacks-why-Isil-is-losing-its-war-on-terror-in-the-West.html

Crickey this guy is holding himself to hostage to fortune....

I heard a so called expert saying that ISIL are losing territory and being seriously squeezed which makes them much more dangerous and likely to do many more terror attacks

It is definitely true they are losing ground. For example, just today, Syrian forces reached outskirts of Palmyra.

How that will affect potential terrorism in Europe I have no idea, but I certainly wouldn't write stuff like well Brussels shows that lone wolf attacks overstated and this is basically the only cell in Europe able to carry out serious attacks and by ISIS standards its crap...I think the fact is we just don't know. I one thing we do know, the Beligum authorities haven't got a f##king scubby doo if there any other nutters in their midst armed with weapons and bomb making equipment.

What is the world coming to...you just can't get the Jahadi's these days...no wonder ISIS are importing so many via Eastern Europe....

TheScreamingEagles said:

if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU.

Feels to me like the polling companies as a whole have about as much idea of the true state of affairs as the Belgium security services. Its somewhere between 14 point lead and possibly a deficit....depending on phone, internet, etc etc etc...

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU.

Feels to me like the polling companies have about as much idea of the true state of affairs as the Belgium security services. Its somewhere between 14 point lead and possibly a deficit....

The thing that is most frightening pollsters about this referendum is turnout.

They could be even more wrong on the final result than the GE, and this is a binary choice election

FPT

JackW said:

Why will it be different?

Will the Trumpster suddenly find humility, grace and a countenance befitting the POTUS

To a large extent, yes.

JackW said:

More importantly where will Trump find the extra voters outside of his base? There are not enough angry white working class males to fill the gap.

He will attack her from the left while undermining the legitimacy of her identity politics driven demographic advantages.

The polling shows that Clinton is beatable by a generic Republican candidate. Trump only has to detoxify himself sufficiently to make the election a referendum on Clinton which she will lose.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU.

Feels to me like the polling companies have about as much idea of the true state of affairs as the Belgium security services. Its somewhere between 14 point lead and possibly a deficit....

The thing that is most frightening pollsters about this referendum is turnout.

They could be even more wrong on the final result than the GE, and this is a binary choice election

Again sounds like the Beligum security services problem...we know we have f##king loads of terrorist sympthaziers, we just have no idea about turn out...

I can't see Indyref levels of turnout.

I think it'll be closer to a GE turnout than the AV referendum turnout

Agreed. The amount of unknowns being recorded at this moment in time also extremely high, and who knows how they will really break.

National - Monmouth

Trump 41 .. Cruz 29 .. Kasich 18 - Sample 353
Clinton 55 .. Sanders 37 - Sample 391

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/d0335f8b-d571-463c-88ec-729620d17068.pdf

With those numbers and GE type turnout (which is skewed to old people) Leave will come close to victory.

The wind is blowing on the sails of Leave, they are moving up.

chestnut said:

It all depends on who you believe.

Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.

ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.

Old people support Leave, young people support Remain, any deviation from his fact is a methodology problem.

@MrHarryCole: Labour List reckon Corbyn had a good outing at PMQs. >> Verdict: Corbyn drags Cameron towards contrition https://t.co/NqiCgURxAe

Hmm, the turnout weighting seems off, not just compared to other polls, but also to my own instincts of the Leave side being much more motivated.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fascinating

"It's life polling, Jim, but not as we know it."

chestnut said:

It all depends on who you believe.

Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.

ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.

Great stuff, as usual.

That Comres 45+ weighting is a complete and utter shocker.

whistling innocently...

Believe in BRITAIN!

Be LEAVE!

williamglenn said:

FPT

JackW said:

Why will it be different?

Will the Trumpster suddenly find humility, grace and a countenance befitting the POTUS

To a large extent, yes.

JackW said:

More importantly where will Trump find the extra voters outside of his base? There are not enough angry white working class males to fill the gap.

He will attack her from the left while undermining the legitimacy of her identity politics driven demographic advantages.

The polling shows that Clinton is beatable by a generic Republican candidate. Trump only has to detoxify himself sufficiently to make the election a referendum on Clinton which she will lose.

If Trump is anything he is not a generic Republican candidate. It's the reason why he's winning the nomination. Your assumption that Trump "only has to detoxify" is similar to Ed only has to eat a bacon sandwich with aplomb.

Demographics are also not abstract concepts. It's the reason why important swing states are trending blue and why the "identity politics" see Trump losing massively with hispanics, AA and at a significant disadvantage with women. Your theories were used by McCain and Romney cheerleaders - Hoping for third time lucky?

PA
#Breaking Student Suhaib Majeed is convicted at the Old Bailey of plotting to kill soldiers, police officers and civilians in shootings

Court News
Suhaib Majeed and Tarik 'the sugeon' Hassane, who went to the same west London Mosque as Jihadi John, face life for IS terror plot

A list categorising Labour MPs as supportive or hostile of Jeremy Corbyn did not "originate" from his office, the Labour leader's spokesman has said.

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. A lot of good for Leave mood music is playing. But I remain unconvinced (for now).

Fear of the unknown is greater than fear of the known. The status quo, the power of inertia, is significant. Remain has all the major parties on its side (unless you count UKIP, which is purging the non-believers and led by a man whose talent is eclipsed by his ego). Big business is also pro-EU.

Leave has print media (in the main) but I can't think of any other comparable area where it has dominance.

But how will we cope with the Belgium refuse to share their intelligence on terrorists....

Mr. Urquhart, I'm highly likely to vote Leave, so you need not convince me. But I think a lot of floating voters and the politically disinterested, who are displeased with and grumpy about the EU, will drift back to Remain as the day comes nearer and concerns about the chaos [as Remain would describe it] of leaving become very real.

JackW said:

Your theories were used by McCain and Romney cheerleaders - Hoping for third time lucky?

There's absolutely no comparison between McCain or Romney and Trump.

Trump's name has been synonymous with success and wealth in black hip-hop culture for years. He has experience and contacts across the entertainment business and will be able to turn out unexpected celebrity endorsements. Clinton will be forced to spend far too much time fighting on turf that will not help her with the voters she needs to turn out for her to win.

Turnout helps Remain according to Comres? Interesting, that's different to what keeps getting suggested in the comments here ...

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Your theories were used by McCain and Romney cheerleaders - Hoping for third time lucky?

There's absolutely no comparison between McCain or Romney and Trump.

Trump's name has been synonymous with success and wealth in black hip-hop culture for years. He has experience and contacts across the entertainment business and will be able to turn out unexpected celebrity endorsements. Clinton will be forced to spend far too much time fighting on turf that will not help her with the voters she needs to turn out for her to win.

Jon Oliver told a funny story the other day about his silly "Make Donald Drumpf Again" hats...apparently Jay-Z rang up and said I want a hat...and they said well they are going quickly, but some are still available to buy on the website...and he said no I want one...as Jon Oliver said if they had given him one and he wears it in public, better still Beyonce, he would stop being the host of a tv show rather the demand would be so high, he would be the boss of a hat company...

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

Hmm, the turnout weighting seems off, not just compared to other polls, but also to my own instincts of the Leave side being much more motivated.

I had a chat with someone about this, he posited a theory, which I hadn't thought about.

There's some pretty motivated Pro EU people out there too.

Think the Lib Dems, the Labour right, possibly the Greens and various Nat parties.

They just aren't voluble as the Leavers.

A dear friend of mine (not Mrs J) is 100% solid remain. She's almost an anti-UKIPper, to the extent that I fear if she was ever to meet a Kipper there would be a massive explosion in which both parti(cl)es are annihilated.

She trots out all the usual arguments, e.g. 'the EU has prevented war', 'millions of jobs at stake', etc, etc. And like hardcore leavers, *nothing* will convince her otherwise.

I reckon there are lots like her. They're just too busy to argue on t'Internet ...

LewisDuckworth said:

Molenbeek, by a former resident:

How did Molenbeek become Europe’s jihadi base? Essentially, it has to do with Belgium’s messy governance and the culture of denial that pervades the debate about Islam in the country. Molenbeek is a vibrant community, with narrow streets and a busy street life. There is a teahouse on every corner, a quiet mosque on every block, where people can congregate undisturbed. There are cheap apartments galore, no questions asked. Just like the guerrilla can hide in the jungle, jihadis feel safe in the disorganized Kashba of Molenbeek. The highway and the city’s busiest international railroad station are a stone’s throw away. It’s the perfect logistical base.

... The lack of a strong, central authority may be one of the many quirks of this sometimes charmingly dysfunctional country, .... also creates the perfect breeding ground for potential terrorists.

But the most important factor is Belgium’s culture of denial. The country’s political debate has been dominated by a complacent progressive elite that firmly believes society can be designed and planned. Observers who point to unpleasant truths such as the high incidence of crime among Moroccan youth and violent tendencies in radical Islam are accused of being propagandists of the extreme-right, and are subsequently ignored and ostracized.

http://www.politico.eu/article/molenbeek-broke-my-heart-radicalization-suburb-brussels-gentrification/

On CH4 last night, a journalist also said there was a feeling in the authorities that they had some sort of "understanding" with the Jahadi elements. If they didn't bother them too much, the Jahadi's wouldn't bring terrorism to Belgium.

SouthamObserver said:

Can't help thinking the junior doctors have made a very foolish mistake. The government cannot now be seen to give in. And it will take just one incident to turn public opinion. This is beginning to remind me of the miners strike in certain ways.

Or the Firemen strike under Blair....

SouthamObserver said:

Can't help thinking the junior doctors have made a very foolish mistake. The government cannot now be seen to give in. And it will take just one incident to turn public opinion. This is beginning to remind me of the miners strike in certain ways.

Will there be a remake of Billy Ellliot?

The future of the EU isn't an unknown - it is very clear where it is headed, and we don't want to go there.

That is really all there is to this referendum. It's time to shake hands, dissolve a partnership that has run its course, and go our separate ways.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. A lot of good for Leave mood music is playing. But I remain unconvinced (for now).

Fear of the unknown is greater than fear of the known. The status quo, the power of inertia, is significant. Remain has all the major parties on its side (unless you count UKIP, which is purging the non-believers and led by a man whose talent is eclipsed by his ego). Big business is also pro-EU.

Leave has print media (in the main) but I can't think of any other comparable area where it has dominance.

Mr Dancer,

Fear of the unknown could easily apply to us remaining in the EU. What kind of EU will there be in 10 years? 20 years?

Your post indicates why that isn't quite true: the fears of reaming in the EU are in the medium- and long-term. The fears about Brexit are much more immediate.

Isn't the ring leader just found guilty of terrorist offences yet another former student at a London university?

Morris_Dancer said:

Dr. Prasannan, I agree, but that's not an intuitive position to hold. People think Remain means the status quo and Leave means change.

The problem is that Remain can engage our primeval brain stem very easily through Project Fear. It's almost a reflexive fight or flight response. It's emotional, visceral and automatic. This will occur subliminally without us even noticing, which is why so many Leavers are starting to get flaky.

That can be overcome but requires us to engage our much more rational neo-cortex part of our brain, which is much harder work as a conscious decision needs to be made to use it.

Blimey

Patrick OFlynn
If you disagree with the suspension of Suzanne Evans please sign this petition calling for it to be rescinded https://t.co/8vPeaA4W8Q

Who are these "others" that 95,000 people have voted for in Arizona?

Bad news for the "they took err jerrbs" brigade

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Who are these "others" that 95,000 people have voted for in Arizona?

Rubio came 3rd there.

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Who are these "others" that 95,000 people have voted for in Arizona?

Rubio came 3rd there.

By people who know he's withdrawn?

Mr. Freggles, can't speak for other likely Leave voters, but that's not an argument I've made. The key is sovereignty and accountability, as well as the EU heading in a way that is not in the UK's interest.

MarkSenior said:

SouthamObserver said:

Can't help thinking the junior doctors have made a very foolish mistake. The government cannot now be seen to give in. And it will take just one incident to turn public opinion. This is beginning to remind me of the miners strike in certain ways.

I think you are wrong , public opinion will remain backing the doctors . An incident as you envisage would see public opinion view the government and Hunt in particular as to be at fault for its intransigence . Playing politics with peoples lives and those of their relatives is a no brain loser .

But Hunt isn't playing politics with anyone's lives, he's changing payment rates for Saturdays. Big deal.

Sean_F said:

chestnut said:

It all depends on who you believe.

Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.

ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.

All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.

Not this one:
"In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU."

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Who are these "others" that 95,000 people have voted for in Arizona?

Rubio came 3rd there.

By people who know he's withdrawn?

He did very well in the early voting, Kasich couldn't overtake him on election day.

OK, so, question then, is that that the only state that will have had significant early voters before Rubio dropped out?

LondonBob said:

Opinion polls so far out have some, but limited, value. The Norpoth model has Trump beating Sanders 58 to 42, HRC by 52.5 to 47.5. Kasich has only won one primary and struggles to get in the 20s in most places.

L.A.Times poll 3/25/80 Favorables: Anderson 68%; Kennedy 60%; Carter 51%; Ronald Reagan 30%.
In March 1980, Reagan was trailing Carter by 15 pts.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/03/337295/

As an outsider Trump's path is similar to Reagan's, HRC's problem is she is already struggling in the polls, especially in the key swing states. All down hill from here.

Rubbish Reagan was likeable and optimistic and polite and spoke well, Trump is dislikeable, rude and angry. Hillary is also more Nixon 1968 than Carter 1976

runnymede said:

'the fears of reaming in the EU are in the medium- and long-term'

It won't be anything like 10-20 years before the EU becomes intolerable for the UK. More like 3-5.

I think you're very wrong. It may become intolerable for individuals in the UK (in fact, for many it already is), but that does not mean it will be for the country as a whole.

As an aside, I reckon if we don't vote to leave, then another country will go through exactly the same process as we are. It might even be one of the larger countries such as France. How the EU reacts to that will be interesting.

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

Hmm, the turnout weighting seems off, not just compared to other polls, but also to my own instincts of the Leave side being much more motivated.

I've been pointing out for ages that the Leave camp is winning C2DEs who don't vote while the Remain camp is winning ABC1s who do vote.

It's not as simple as looking at old versus young as even a quarter of the elderly don't vote. Elderly ABC1s will turnout, a lot of elderly C2DEs don't - and they're polling leave.

Elderly ABC1's will still vote Leave. albeit by a lower margin than elderly C2DE's.

The voters with the highest turnout are white, 55+, who own their own homes outright. Currently, they favour Leave.

Indeed elderly ABC1s will vote Leave by a lower margin than elderly C2DEs
While simultaneously young ABC1s will vote Remain by a higher margin than young C2DEs.

Both of which will assist Remain compared to just looking at age alone. White 55+ homeowners do have the highest turnout but won't form 51% of the vote on their own.

LondonBob said:

Of course in 08 and 12 Obama was the antiwar candidate. This time Trump will be.

In 12 Romney repulsed the blue collar white workers in the Rust Belt in particular, but really across the nation, leading to a catastrophically low non college educated whites turnout of just 57%. Trump's strength is with these voters.

In 08 and 12 Obama drove a historically high turnout amongst blacks, won't happen this time.

Romney won suburban whites by the biggest margin since 1988, Trump will not. Hispanic turnout will be up on 2012 to vote against Trump

MarkSenior said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MarkSenior said:

SouthamObserver said:

Can't help thinking the junior doctors have made a very foolish mistake. The government cannot now be seen to give in. And it will take just one incident to turn public opinion. This is beginning to remind me of the miners strike in certain ways.

I think you are wrong , public opinion will remain backing the doctors . An incident as you envisage would see public opinion view the government and Hunt in particular as to be at fault for its intransigence . Playing politics with peoples lives and those of their relatives is a no brain loser .

But Hunt isn't playing politics with anyone's lives, he's changing payment rates for Saturdays. Big deal.

As a pro government lackey , you may think that but since the dispute began the numbers agreeing with that view point has fallen in every poll and support got the junior doctors has risen .

Indeed it has when the doctors were saying "we're compassionate medics who won't risk lives so we are providing emergency cover even though we're striking".

Saying "our pay rate for Saturdays is more important than even emergencies" is a complete reversal of messaging.

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

chestnut said:

It all depends on who you believe.

Comres 45+ had an 8 point lead for Leave, which they turnout weighted into a 4 point lead for Remain.

ICM and Opinium had 17 and 18 point leads for Leave with this group.

All polls that survey certainty to vote show certainty to vote is higher with Leave.

But self-reported certainty to vote is notoriously flawed though isn't it? More people typically report themselves as certain to vote than actually do vote.

Indeed so. But, that doesn't alter the fact that there's a gap in enthusiasm between the two sides. Probably Leave supporters overstate their readiness to vote, but then so do Remain supporters.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Who are these "others" that 95,000 people have voted for in Arizona?

Rubio came 3rd there.

By people who know he's withdrawn?

He did very well in the early voting, Kasich couldn't overtake him on election day.

OK, so, question then, is that that the only state that will have had significant early voters before Rubio dropped out?

I think so - Wisconsin early voting started Monday, no early voting in New York and the rest are a way into the future.