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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With sentiment edging away from REMAIN it’s been the biggest betting day yet on the EURef
Whether this has been driven by Brussels or not is unclrear but there’s been a huge, in political betting terms, of betting on the EU Referendum. With nearly £0.25m of bets matched on Betfair alone in 24 hours the this has almost certainly been the biggest day yet for referendum gambling.
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Comments
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Interesting0
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FWIW I started out thinking that REMAIN will win but as time goes on, despite the advantages REMAIN has with: the Govt machinery, the backing of the establishment (except the Queen) and no single LEAVE campaign, I am moving towards a belief in LEAVE.
Here are my assumptions on voting
Leave Remain
Con voters 55% 45%
Lab voters 35% 65%
UKIP voters 95% 5%
SNP voters 10% 90%
LD voters 30% 70%
NI voters 36% 64%
Others 40% 60%
Turnout assumptions are the other factor0 -
Lets face it, days like today don't do the EU any good. You can say that cross border policing helped France track the Death Cult to Belgium, but then you can just as easily say that free, open borders makes it easy for the Death Cult to swan around the EU at will. It's not as simple as that, I know, but that'll be the perception for a large swathe of the EU population.0
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Up until the last few days, with the advantages REMAIN had, IMHO they should be 10+ points ahead in polls that still have dubious weighting favouring REMAIN.0
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LOL at Mike Ashley:
"I would love to get him in a boxing ring with a pair of gloves on and box his ears, that's what I would like to do," said Mr Ashley when asked about Mr Miliband's comments.
http://news.sky.com/story/1664968/ashley-threatened-with-contempt-of-parliament0 -
We are not in Shengen.TwistedFireStopper said:Lets face it, days like today don't do the EU any good. You can say that cross border policing helped France track the Death Cult to Belgium, but then you can just as easily say that free, open borders makes it easy for the Death Cult to swan around the EU at will. It's not as simple as that, I know, but that'll be the perception for a large swathe of the EU population.
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I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.0 -
And your point is?DaemonBarber said:
We are not in Shengen.TwistedFireStopper said:Lets face it, days like today don't do the EU any good. You can say that cross border policing helped France track the Death Cult to Belgium, but then you can just as easily say that free, open borders makes it easy for the Death Cult to swan around the EU at will. It's not as simple as that, I know, but that'll be the perception for a large swathe of the EU population.
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You have to eat a bacon sandwich before you can see your GP?AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.0 -
It does seem to me that remain are in trouble; there's a lack of passion, having to argue for EU membership makes it much harder to point out some obvious flaws, and robust economic analysis of how much economic damage would be done by leaving is either ignored or seen as worth it.
If it's high turnout, remain should be fine, if not leave could easily do it.
I thought Mike's piece earlier was spot on - if there's a political angle to today though, it's that the biggest challenges we face - immigration, terrorism, climate change, tax avoidance, air pollution - don't respect national borders. The days when we could just sort ourselves out and leave other countries to do likewise without impacting us are long gone. Glad to see those being too partisan get called out for it today.0 -
Remain or leave we will still not be part of Shengen.TwistedFireStopper said:
And your point is?DaemonBarber said:
We are not in Shengen.TwistedFireStopper said:Lets face it, days like today don't do the EU any good. You can say that cross border policing helped France track the Death Cult to Belgium, but then you can just as easily say that free, open borders makes it easy for the Death Cult to swan around the EU at will. It's not as simple as that, I know, but that'll be the perception for a large swathe of the EU population.
You may well be right that it doesn't help the pro EU arguments, but it should have little weight to the referendum.0 -
What time do we start getting primary results tonight? Hopefully not too late...0
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Sadly we have to end all faith schools. Only because our laws would not allow discrimination against Islam. This is the price we have to pay for allowing 2million+ muslims to live in the country. We should also consider a 10+ year ban on new religous buildings.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.
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FPT:
We'll repay debt if Osborne's plans are followed to completion. However you keep repeating the fallacious claim that Osborne is the same as Brown. Brown increased real terms spending every year. Osborne has reduced real terms spending again and again.Alanbrooke said:Yeah, you're just not old enough to remember when we used to repay debt. I am.
Under Brown real terms spending more than doubled.
Under Osborne real terms spending has been falling.
While Brown's annual answer to everything was "more spending" I challenge you to name a single Chancellor in our history who has cut spending more than Osborne has.0 -
I would be up for all of that as well.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.0 -
Slaughter of animals should be non negotiable. You either do it in the way prescribed or not at all.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.
Import of meat from animals killed to religious specification should also be banned.
You can not have welfare for some and not others. All animals are equal.0 -
I know that, you know that, but the vast majority of the population don't really have a grasp of the intricacies of Shengen. I'm just commenting on my belief that days like today don't do the EU any favours.DaemonBarber said:
Remain or leave we will still not be part of Shengen.TwistedFireStopper said:
And your point is?DaemonBarber said:
We are not in Shengen.TwistedFireStopper said:Lets face it, days like today don't do the EU any good. You can say that cross border policing helped France track the Death Cult to Belgium, but then you can just as easily say that free, open borders makes it easy for the Death Cult to swan around the EU at will. It's not as simple as that, I know, but that'll be the perception for a large swathe of the EU population.
You may well be right that it doesn't help the pro EU arguments, but it should have little weight to the referendum.0 -
Sadly I say yes to those.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.
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The other dimension is how party allegiance interacts with turnout. The nature of the debate may lead left wing voters to see it as quintessentially right wing in nature and not much to do with them.0
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Apparently most polls close in Arizona 10PM ET, which is I think 6AM GMT. However that does sound very late compared to other states.0
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Whether it should or not is a bit like saying project fear's end of days nonsense should have no effect. But they will.DaemonBarber said:
Remain or leave we will still not be part of Shengen.TwistedFireStopper said:
And your point is?DaemonBarber said:
We are not in Shengen.TwistedFireStopper said:Lets face it, days like today don't do the EU any good. You can say that cross border policing helped France track the Death Cult to Belgium, but then you can just as easily say that free, open borders makes it easy for the Death Cult to swan around the EU at will. It's not as simple as that, I know, but that'll be the perception for a large swathe of the EU population.
You may well be right that it doesn't help the pro EU arguments, but it should have little weight to the referendum.
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My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting
So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.
I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.0 -
Rubbish. The issue is that Islam has proven time and again it cannot be trusted not to light a fire if we give them matches. I went to a CoE school and had a very traditional education, lumping schools like mine in with the Islamic madrassas in the Midlands and North is wrong. We don't punish all children because one of them misbehaves.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Sadly we have to end all faith schools. Only because our laws would not allow discrimination against Islam. This is the price we have to pay for allowing 2million+ muslims to live in the country. We should also consider a 10+ year ban on new religous buildings.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.
On religious buildings, stop all overseas funding of Mosques and close all the existing ones and slowly reopen them once they have have been sufficiently checked for links to extremists.0 -
Those aren't assumptions. They're conclusions.TCPoliticalBetting said:FWIW I started out thinking that REMAIN will win but as time goes on, despite the advantages REMAIN has with: the Govt machinery, the backing of the establishment (except the Queen) and no single LEAVE campaign, I am moving towards a belief in LEAVE.
Here are my assumptions on voting
Leave Remain
Con voters 55% 45%
Lab voters 35% 65%
UKIP voters 95% 5%
SNP voters 10% 90%
LD voters 30% 70%
NI voters 36% 64%
Others 40% 60%
Turnout assumptions are the other factor
Your assumption is that dividing people into voters for the different parties is of much significance when we are predicting what will happen in the referendum. In my opinion, it isn't. Why? Because these identities won't feature big in how most people see themselves when they go and vote. In the electoral reform referendum, they did. In the EU one, they won't.
I also think your figures for both Con and Others are way out. I'd suggest more like 70% Leave for both groups. Many will feel a sense of "release" when they go and vote Leave.
Are there any leading figures in the SNP, by the way, who take the wholly logical position that an independent Scotland should be independent of both Britain and the EU and therefore that Scotland shouldn't be part of either union? Or is that party hell-bent on helping the Tories like they did in 1979?
Leave will win. The whole set-up is much "stickier" in the Remain direction. There won't be a sudden big rush to Remain. Surprises and shocks will almost all benefit Leave. The Remain campaign have got an extremely hard job on their hands to persuade a) intending Leave voters, b) intending non-voters, and c) people who might either stay at home or vote Remain, to make sure they get off their butts and vote Remain.
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WE have no chance of repaying debt if Osborne's plans are followed since the economic cycle will kick back in by then and all the projections will just be garbage in a downturn. Unless of course your claiming he has abolished boom and bust.Philip_Thompson said:FPT:
We'll repay debt if Osborne's plans are followed to completion. However you keep repeating the fallacious claim that Osborne is the same as Brown. Brown increased real terms spending every year. Osborne has reduced real terms spending again and again.Alanbrooke said:Yeah, you're just not old enough to remember when we used to repay debt. I am.
Under Brown real terms spending more than doubled.
Under Osborne real terms spending has been falling.
While Brown's annual answer to everything was "more spending" I challenge you to name a single Chancellor in our history who has cut spending more than Osborne has.0 -
It is interesting that with Project Fear firing its initial, opening "softening up" artillery salvo pretty continuously for the first two weeks of the campaign (although admittedly much quieter over the last week, which may have had an effect) the polls have not moved massively.TCPoliticalBetting said:Up until the last few days, with the advantages REMAIN had, IMHO they should be 10+ points ahead in polls that still have dubious weighting favouring REMAIN.
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Can't abolish boom and bust when we not out of bust yetAlanbrooke said:
WE have no chance of repaying debt if Osborne's plans are followed since the economic cycle will kick back in by then and all the projections will just be garbage in a downturn. Unless of course your claiming he has abolished boom and bust.Philip_Thompson said:FPT:
We'll repay debt if Osborne's plans are followed to completion. However you keep repeating the fallacious claim that Osborne is the same as Brown. Brown increased real terms spending every year. Osborne has reduced real terms spending again and again.Alanbrooke said:Yeah, you're just not old enough to remember when we used to repay debt. I am.
Under Brown real terms spending more than doubled.
Under Osborne real terms spending has been falling.
While Brown's annual answer to everything was "more spending" I challenge you to name a single Chancellor in our history who has cut spending more than Osborne has.0 -
Andrew Neil made an interesting point earlier this month that in a referendum in another country about the EU, it started off with the project fear stuff and after weeks of it people started to mock it and the people turned on the establishment and they voted against.tpfkar said:It does seem to me that remain are in trouble; there's a lack of passion, having to argue for EU membership makes it much harder to point out some obvious flaws, and robust economic analysis of how much economic damage would be done by leaving is either ignored or seen as worth it.
As yet no one has managed to write an article on this website that is purely positive about REMAIN (as Plato pointed out). Maybe that is becuase it is very very hard to do?
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If only Leave could organise themselves.Casino_Royale said:
My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting
So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.
I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.0 -
Don't get me started.TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Leave could organise themselves.Casino_Royale said:
My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting
So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.
I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.0 -
I have a feeling I am going to enjoy reading this book:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Making-India-Untold-British-Enterprise/dp/1472924827/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1458684925&sr=8-1&keywords=kartar+lalvani0 -
SeanT - Yes but we probably have to end all religious schools, the price of our freedom and liberty may be a secular society.SeanT said:
Entirely right. Let's face the fucking truth. The problem is ISLAM. So we close Muslim schools. There. Done. Everything else is specious cant.MaxPB said:
Rubbish. The issue is that Islam has proven time and again it cannot be trusted not to light a fire if we give them matches. I went to a CoE school and had a very traditional education, lumping schools like mine in with the Islamic madrassas in the Midlands and North is wrong. We don't punish all children because one of them misbehaves.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Sadly we have to end all faith schools. Only because our laws would not allow discrimination against Islam. This is the price we have to pay for allowing 2million+ muslims to live in the country. We should also consider a 10+ year ban on new religous buildings.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.
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sorry this IS the boom. The bust has yet to come and already the central banks are getting twitchy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can't abolish boom and bust when we not out of bust yetAlanbrooke said:
WE have no chance of repaying debt if Osborne's plans are followed since the economic cycle will kick back in by then and all the projections will just be garbage in a downturn. Unless of course your claiming he has abolished boom and bust.Philip_Thompson said:FPT:
We'll repay debt if Osborne's plans are followed to completion. However you keep repeating the fallacious claim that Osborne is the same as Brown. Brown increased real terms spending every year. Osborne has reduced real terms spending again and again.Alanbrooke said:Yeah, you're just not old enough to remember when we used to repay debt. I am.
Under Brown real terms spending more than doubled.
Under Osborne real terms spending has been falling.
While Brown's annual answer to everything was "more spending" I challenge you to name a single Chancellor in our history who has cut spending more than Osborne has.0 -
Fair enough. And for what it's worth i think you're right.TwistedFireStopper said:
I know that, you know that, but the vast majority of the population don't really have a grasp of the intricacies of Shengen. I'm just commenting on my belief that days like today don't do the EU any favours.DaemonBarber said:
Remain or leave we will still not be part of Shengen.TwistedFireStopper said:
And your point is?DaemonBarber said:
We are not in Shengen.TwistedFireStopper said:Lets face it, days like today don't do the EU any good. You can say that cross border policing helped France track the Death Cult to Belgium, but then you can just as easily say that free, open borders makes it easy for the Death Cult to swan around the EU at will. It's not as simple as that, I know, but that'll be the perception for a large swathe of the EU population.
You may well be right that it doesn't help the pro EU arguments, but it should have little weight to the referendum.0 -
Leave has all the passion and commitment. It's hard to see how Dave gets enough Remainers to the polling booths on 23rd June.0
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It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.SeanT said:
Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.0 -
The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.
Most remainers are soft, it won't take much to convince them to vote Leave.0 -
We shouldn't penalise all religions, because of problems caused by some members of one religion.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Sadly we have to end all faith schools. Only because our laws would not allow discrimination against Islam. This is the price we have to pay for allowing 2million+ muslims to live in the country. We should also consider a 10+ year ban on new religous buildings.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.0 -
When they do it could be all over for REMAIN.TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Leave could organise themselves.Casino_Royale said:
My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting
So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.
I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.
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What's not to like about a secular society?TCPoliticalBetting said:
SeanT - Yes but we probably have to end all religious schools, the price of our freedom and liberty may be a secular society.SeanT said:
Entirely right. Let's face the fucking truth. The problem is ISLAM. So we close Muslim schools. There. Done. Everything else is specious cant.MaxPB said:
Rubbish. The issue is that Islam has proven time and again it cannot be trusted not to light a fire if we give them matches. I went to a CoE school and had a very traditional education, lumping schools like mine in with the Islamic madrassas in the Midlands and North is wrong. We don't punish all children because one of them misbehaves.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Sadly we have to end all faith schools. Only because our laws would not allow discrimination against Islam. This is the price we have to pay for allowing 2million+ muslims to live in the country. We should also consider a 10+ year ban on new religous buildings.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.0 -
Only 8pm MT though which is plausible. 10pm ET is 2am GMT this weekTheWhiteRabbit said:Apparently most polls close in Arizona 10PM ET, which is I think 6AM GMT. However that does sound very late compared to other states.
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Massively off topic.
First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review0 -
Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?Speedy said:The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.
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Even if you don't want to be seen to obviously discriminate you can do a lot. If we find one extremist teacher or one piece of extremist material, close down the school and ban all the directors from setting up any others. You'd get rid of most Islamic schools in a decade.SeanT said:
Entirely right. Let's face the fucking truth. The problem is ISLAM. So we close Muslim schools. There. Done. Everything else is specious cant.MaxPB said:
Rubbish. The issue is that Islam has proven time and again it cannot be trusted not to light a fire if we give them matches. I went to a CoE school and had a very traditional education, lumping schools like mine in with the Islamic madrassas in the Midlands and North is wrong. We don't punish all children because one of them misbehaves.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Sadly we have to end all faith schools. Only because our laws would not allow discrimination against Islam. This is the price we have to pay for allowing 2million+ muslims to live in the country. We should also consider a 10+ year ban on new religous buildings.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.0 -
I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Leave could organise themselves.Casino_Royale said:
My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting
So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.
I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.0 -
Say there's a truce and the west gets the hell out of Muslim countries. Just say that happens. Then why would the death cult stay as strong as it is now in Europe?TwistedFireStopper said:
It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.SeanT said:
Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.0 -
Why? I went to a CoE school, it is one of the best in the country, why should that school be closed or the link to the church ended? It nurtures some of the best talent in London and kids get a thorough education and a good moral grounding from the church, though I didn't really bother listening to the bible readings so much.TCPoliticalBetting said:
SeanT - Yes but we probably have to end all religous schools, the price of our freedom and liberty may be a secular society.SeanT said:
Entirely right. Let's face the fucking truth. The problem is ISLAM. So we close Muslim schools. There. Done. Everything else is specious cant.MaxPB said:
Rubbish. The issue is that Islam has proven time and again it cannot be trusted not to light a fire if we give them matches. I went to a CoE school and had a very traditional education, lumping schools like mine in with the Islamic madrassas in the Midlands and North is wrong. We don't punish all children because one of them misbehaves.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Sadly we have to end all faith schools. Only because our laws would not allow discrimination against Islam. This is the price we have to pay for allowing 2million+ muslims to live in the country. We should also consider a 10+ year ban on new religous buildings.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.0 -
The small consolation is that we know we can win if they get organised for the next referendum.Casino_Royale said:
Don't get me started.TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Leave could organise themselves.Casino_Royale said:
My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting
So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.
I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.0 -
I favour pro-am celebrity badger baiting.philiph said:
Slaughter of animals should be non negotiable. You either do it in the way prescribed or not at all.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.
Import of meat from animals killed to religious specification should also be banned.
You can not have welfare for some and not others. All animals are equal.0 -
See it in less than 48 hours time.DaemonBarber said:Massively off topic.
First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review0 -
The televised debatesTCPoliticalBetting said:
Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?Speedy said:The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.0 -
Yes.John_N said:
Say there's a truce and the west gets the hell out of Muslim countries. Just say that happens. Then why would the death cult stay as strong as it is now in Europe?TwistedFireStopper said:
It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.SeanT said:
Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.0 -
It is the Labour voting wwc that I believe are the key. The Mrs Duffy types that is in my pic. Why would they follow the Labour line and vote for more immigration? I believe they are going to either abstain or vote LEAVE in their droves. Labour have almost no figureheads filling the media trying to Get Out the Vote. Alan Johnson is a part time bystander.SouthamObserver said:Leave has all the passion and commitment. It's hard to see how Dave gets enough Remainers to the polling booths on 23rd June.
0 -
Because they will find a reason to be outraged over anything: cartoons of Mohammed, criticism of Islam, the failure of Muslim youths to get jobs. We can not appease these people.John_N said:
Say there's a truce and the west gets the hell out of Muslim countries. Just say that happens. Then why would the death cult stay as strong as it is now in Europe?TwistedFireStopper said:
It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.SeanT said:
Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.0 -
I had an email from Vote Leave today complaining about the BSE leaflets that have been issued, and we've all received, and containing rebuttals to each one.RoyalBlue said:
I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Leave could organise themselves.Casino_Royale said:
My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting
So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.
I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.
Was there any mention of any forthcoming leaflet from them, with their arguments on it?
No siree. No. Nothing at all. Nada.0 -
SqueeeeeeeTheScreamingEagles said:
See it in less than 48 hours time.DaemonBarber said:Massively off topic.
First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review0 -
Because they're on a roll. They hate us, want to destroy us, and all dream of Dabiq. Maybe?John_N said:
Say there's a truce and the west gets the hell out of Muslim countries. Just say that happens. Then why would the death cult stay as strong as it is now in Europe?TwistedFireStopper said:
It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.SeanT said:
Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.0 -
No it wouldn't actually. The measures are specifically aimed at conservative or radical followers. Moderates wouldn't get caught up in English only services with no translators, or needing to pass an English test to get benefits, or not being able to send their children to Madrassas. They are already integrated, there are enough measures that the government could take which would discourage extremism without making life difficult for Muslims who have already integrated.TwistedFireStopper said:
It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.SeanT said:
Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.0 -
Clegg was thoroughly beaten by Farage in 2014 over the EU.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The televised debatesTCPoliticalBetting said:
Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?Speedy said:The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.
Qn: How do you see the EU Mr Clegg in 10 years time?
Ans: Much the same.
Audience reaction = wtf and LDs driven down to 1 MEP.
0 -
I think that probably is the future tbh.SeanT said:
But it will happen in the end. In the most grotesque way.TwistedFireStopper said:
It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.
Because we are democracies. Already with Muslim populations at 5-10% we see the hard right close to taking over major European countries, e.g. France. If Muslim populations hit 15-20% then the remaining native majority will elect EXTREME rightwing governments, way beyond the FN, who will expel the Muslims.
It's Darwinian. The host expels the virus, the tumour, the invader.
This is precisely why we have to tackle Islam now. If we don't, we face a far right Europe.0 -
You crack me up.Sean_F said:
I favour pro-am celebrity badger baiting.philiph said:
Slaughter of animals should be non negotiable. You either do it in the way prescribed or not at all.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.
Import of meat from animals killed to religious specification should also be banned.
You can not have welfare for some and not others. All animals are equal.0 -
Well a depression in the economy would terminate the Tories from government in the next GE, so if you are a Tory Remainer pick your poison.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?Speedy said:The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.
As I mentioned yesterday, it's nuts to sacrifice victory in the GE in order to win the EU referendum.0 -
More quoting of the pure poetry that is the script of The Untouchables.DaemonBarber said:Massively off topic.
First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review
IT IS SPREADING.0 -
I'm starting to think the lack of a single unified Leave campaign is a masterstroke.Casino_Royale said:
Don't get me started.TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Leave could organise themselves.Casino_Royale said:
My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting
So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.
I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.
I am incredibly put off by Farage/UKIP/Leave.EU/GrassrootsOut/immigration talk etc and was expecting to vote Remain in response to that.
I have been won over by Michael Gove, Dan Hannan and Vote Leave.
However other people will think otherwise and be put off by the likes of Gove and Hannan but like what Leave.EU are selling. The reality is that there are two different potential futures for us Leaving and they are mutually incompatible. Leave.EU represents the "leave and control our migration" wing of Leave, Vote Leave represents the "leave but we're open to the EEA and thus keeping free movement" wing of Leave.
If we leave, democracy will sort out which route we end up taking, but it will be up to us to decide.
My biggest reason I'm not 100% committed to Leave yet is my fear that Leave.EU becomes the official campaign, Vote Leave withers away and this becomes (like I'd feared for years) a proxy referendum on immigration. So far that hasn't happened, which to me is a good thing. Those bothered by immigration can vote accordingly but its not restricted to just them.0 -
Doubt we will have 2 consecutive qtrs of negative growth between now and June, which is a recession. A shortage of time.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?Speedy said:The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.
A depression between now and 23rd June? I wouldn't bet the house on that either.0 -
Because only they follow the true Word of God and they have a sacred duty to win the world for Him.John_N said:
Say there's a truce and the west gets the hell out of Muslim countries. Just say that happens. Then why would the death cult stay as strong as it is now in Europe?TwistedFireStopper said:
It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.SeanT said:
Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.
I'm sick and tired of atheists not taking religion seriously because they don't find it personally convincing. It's almost as bad as the lazy and totally
false assumption that most religions are more exotic varieties of the CofE.
0 -
It wont be Clegg v Farage - The most important one for remain will be David Cameron's question time style event.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Clegg was thoroughly beaten by Farage in 2014 over the EU.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The televised debatesTCPoliticalBetting said:
Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?Speedy said:The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.
Qn: How do you see the EU Mr Clegg in 10 years time?
Ans: Much the same.
Audience reaction = wtf and LDs driven down to 1 MEP.0 -
My friend has already seen it.DaemonBarber said:
SqueeeeeeeTheScreamingEagles said:
See it in less than 48 hours time.DaemonBarber said:Massively off topic.
First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review
He thought it was ok without brilliant.
Said Wonder Woman/Gal Godot is the best thing in it.
Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.0 -
That's a strong area for Leave, I have not forgotten what happened the last time in the Euro elections.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The televised debatesTCPoliticalBetting said:
Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?Speedy said:The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.0 -
Sure, some Muslim men have got minds like Hell's Angels: "we'll kick your head in if you insult our colours". If they knew how to respect women properly, their mothers and wives could nurture some sense in them.AndrewD said:
Because they will find a reason to be outraged over anything: cartoons of Mohammed, criticism of Islam, the failure of Muslim youths to get jobs. We can not appease these people.John_N said:
Say there's a truce and the west gets the hell out of Muslim countries. Just say that happens. Then why would the death cult stay as strong as it is now in Europe?TwistedFireStopper said:
It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.SeanT said:
Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.
But I still think the bombing shit out of Syria and Iraq helps with the death cult's recruitment.
I agree there is a problem. How about cantonisation?0 -
The PB establishment have written numerous articles for REMAIN and against LEAVE. Does that count?RoyalBlue said:
I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Leave could organise themselves.Casino_Royale said:
My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting
So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.
I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.
Innocent face thing.
0 -
What? Sajid Javid?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.DaemonBarber said:
SqueeeeeeeTheScreamingEagles said:
See it in less than 48 hours time.DaemonBarber said:Massively off topic.
First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review0 -
Isn't Peter Hargreaves sending something aroynd?Casino_Royale said:
I had an email from Vote Leave today complaining about the BSE leaflets that have been issued, and we've all received, and containing rebuttals to each one.RoyalBlue said:
I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Leave could organise themselves.Casino_Royale said:
My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting
So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.
I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.
Was there any mention of any forthcoming leaflet from them, with their arguments on it?
No siree. No. Nothing at all. Nada.
By until the decision on which is the official campaign is made there's not much money and no free post. So it's prohibitive. I wonder who designed the rules in such a way that it favoured remain so much?0 -
Depends who they have - Farage and Galloway would be a disasterSpeedy said:
That's a strong area for Leave, I have not forgotten what happened the last time in the Euro elections.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The televised debatesTCPoliticalBetting said:
Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?Speedy said:The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.0 -
I started it on PB last year. Same quotes.Casino_Royale said:
More quoting of the pure poetry that is the script of The Untouchables.DaemonBarber said:Massively off topic.
First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review
IT IS SPREADING.0 -
(deleted)0
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I see the abolitionists are out in force, how about we all live by the same rules, laws, call it what you like.
Gay marriage? Yep, for anyone who wants it.
Arranged marriage? Not for anybody who doesn't want it.
FGM? Any prosecutions lately?
Honour killings? Its called murder.
Let's stop appeasing people with silly views about sex, marriage and homosexuality and live our lives. Have a look at the news if you fancy the alternative.
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Since they have given up to any pretense of imagination in the movie business, why don't they make a Star Wars vs Star Trek movie ?TheScreamingEagles said:
My friend has already seen it.DaemonBarber said:
SqueeeeeeeTheScreamingEagles said:
See it in less than 48 hours time.DaemonBarber said:Massively off topic.
First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review
He thought it was ok without brilliant.
Said Wonder Woman/Gal Godot is the best thing in it.
Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.0 -
I have had nothing from Remain so far, and it's not like I live in Clacton.Casino_Royale said:
I had an email from Vote Leave today complaining about the BSE leaflets that have been issued, and we've all received, and containing rebuttals to each one.RoyalBlue said:
I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Leave could organise themselves.Casino_Royale said:
My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting
So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.
I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.
Was there any mention of any forthcoming leaflet from them, with their arguments on it?
No siree. No. Nothing at all. Nada.
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Or the host absorbs that which it has taken in, which is also Darwinian.SeanT said:
But it will happen in the end. In the most grotesque way.TwistedFireStopper said:
It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.SeanT said:
Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.
Because we are democracies. Already with Muslim populations at 5-10% we see the hard right close to taking over major European countries, e.g. France. If Muslim populations hit 15-20% then the remaining native majority will elect EXTREME rightwing governments, way beyond the FN, who will expel the Muslims.
It's Darwinian. The host expels the virus, the tumour, the invader.
This is precisely why we have to tackle Islam now. If we don't, we face a far right Europe.0 -
How the hell are you going to stop people from sending kids to a madrassa without you also banning Sunday School? English only services with no translators? Good luck running a police or court service. Depending on the English test for benefits you could end up trapping native peoples of lower intelegence too!MaxPB said:
No it wouldn't actually. The measures are specifically aimed at conservative or radical followers. Moderates wouldn't get caught up in English only services with no translators, or needing to pass an English test to get benefits, or not being able to send their children to Madrassas. They are already integrated, there are enough measures that the government could take which would discourage extremism without making life difficult for Muslims who have already integrated.TwistedFireStopper said:
It's not going to happen, Sean. The saner political parties in this country wouldn't dare implement anything like the laws needed to make the UK unappealing to followers of conservative Islam. It's a sad fact that no matter how many drones and planes bomb the shit out of Syria and Iraq, the Death Cult are here, now, throughout Europe. We need to focus on the problems we have here. As I commented at the end of the last thread, driving out radical Islam will impinge upon the rights and civil liberties of the vast majority of peaceful, decent Muslims throughout Europe. It just ain't gonna happen.SeanT said:
Agree with all, We need EU Muslim populations to DECREASE over time. And we need the hardcore 20-30% to LEAVE very very soon.AndrewD said:
I don't see how those make conservative Islam impossible. What you need to do is to instantly close down any school teaching conservative Islam. Ban the burkha for under 18s. Get rid of hijabs as part of school uniforms. Get rid of the religious exemption for cruel animal slaughter. Require both parents to be in work or looking for work once youngest child is over 5 before you get benefits. Scrap marriage visas for arranged marriages.MaxPB said:
Make that impossible. No translators, English only in schools and official literature, no benefits without passing an English test, maximum child benefits/tax credits of two children. All of these are relatively simple moves which will make life hard for those who don't want to integrate.runnymede said:'Make it impossible to be a radical or conservative Muslim in Europe'
Practically, I can't see how you can do that now - as I said, short of very extreme coercion. It's now possible to live here and have minimal, if any, contact with the host society.
These are not easy problems otherwise we would already see some solutions.
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Indeed, I have had two leaflets now from Remain nothing From Leave, Remain needs a better ground game to get its voters out and so far it has itCasino_Royale said:
I had an email from Vote Leave today complaining about the BSE leaflets that have been issued, and we've all received, and containing rebuttals to each one.RoyalBlue said:
I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Leave could organise themselves.Casino_Royale said:
My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting
So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.
I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.
Was there any mention of any forthcoming leaflet from them, with their arguments on it?
No siree. No. Nothing at all. Nada.0 -
I guess one possibility is domestic political chaos. You would assume that Cameron being ousted prior to the referendum would be bad for Remain but it's possible the electorate wouldn't vote to Leave the EU at a moment when the country was effectively leaderless. (I don't suppose Cameron would favour this strategy for Remain.)TCPoliticalBetting said:
Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?Speedy said:The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.0 -
Batman v Superman: The Dawn of JusticeCasino_Royale said:
What? Sajid Javid?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.DaemonBarber said:
SqueeeeeeeTheScreamingEagles said:
See it in less than 48 hours time.DaemonBarber said:Massively off topic.
First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review0 -
But Farage won the 2014 Euro debates.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Depends who they have - Farage and Galloway would be a disasterSpeedy said:
That's a strong area for Leave, I have not forgotten what happened the last time in the Euro elections.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The televised debatesTCPoliticalBetting said:
Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?Speedy said:The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.0 -
They don't respect continental borders either.tpfkar said:It does seem to me that remain are in trouble; there's a lack of passion, having to argue for EU membership makes it much harder to point out some obvious flaws, and robust economic analysis of how much economic damage would be done by leaving is either ignored or seen as worth it.
If it's high turnout, remain should be fine, if not leave could easily do it.
I thought Mike's piece earlier was spot on - if there's a political angle to today though, it's that the biggest challenges we face - immigration, terrorism, climate change, tax avoidance, air pollution - don't respect national borders. The days when we could just sort ourselves out and leave other countries to do likewise without impacting us are long gone. Glad to see those being too partisan get called out for it today.0 -
I believe Peter Hargreaves will be sending a letter to 15 million homes (2/3 of all homes in UK). Although he is backing Grassroots Out/Leave.EU.Charles said:
Isn't Peter Hargreaves sending something aroynd?Casino_Royale said:
I had an email from Vote Leave today complaining about the BSE leaflets that have been issued, and we've all received, and containing rebuttals to each one.RoyalBlue said:
I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Leave could organise themselves.Casino_Royale said:
My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting
So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.
I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.
Was there any mention of any forthcoming leaflet from them, with their arguments on it?
No siree. No. Nothing at all. Nada.
By until the decision on which is the official campaign is made there's not much money and no free post. So it's prohibitive. I wonder who designed the rules in such a way that it favoured remain so much?0 -
No one was listeningSpeedy said:
But Farage won the 2014 Euro debates.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Depends who they have - Farage and Galloway would be a disasterSpeedy said:
That's a strong area for Leave, I have not forgotten what happened the last time in the Euro elections.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The televised debatesTCPoliticalBetting said:
Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?Speedy said:The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.0 -
Abolitionists?blackburn63 said:I see the abolitionists are out in force, how about we all live by the same rules, laws, call it what you like.
Gay marriage? Yep, for anyone who wants it.
Arranged marriage? Not for anybody who doesn't want it.
FGM? Any prosecutions lately?
Honour killings? Its called murder.
Let's stop appeasing people with silly views about sex, marriage and homosexuality and live our lives. Have a look at the news if you fancy the alternative.0 -
Against the most hated leader in British politics.Speedy said:
But Farage won the 2014 Euro debates.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Depends who they have - Farage and Galloway would be a disasterSpeedy said:
That's a strong area for Leave, I have not forgotten what happened the last time in the Euro elections.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The televised debatesTCPoliticalBetting said:
Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?Speedy said:The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.0 -
I used it in my email to Matthew Elliot.TheScreamingEagles said:
I started it on PB last year. Same quotes.Casino_Royale said:
More quoting of the pure poetry that is the script of The Untouchables.DaemonBarber said:Massively off topic.
First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review
IT IS SPREADING.
He hasn't replied.
Perhaps he didn't like it.0 -
After today's unity performance by the conservatives David Cameron is going nowhereWanderer said:
I guess one possibility is domestic political chaos. You would assume that Cameron being ousted prior to the referendum would be bad for Remain but it's possible the electorate wouldn't vote to Leave the EU at a moment when the country was effectively leaderless. (I don't suppose Cameron would favour this strategy for Remain.)TCPoliticalBetting said:
Are there events that could hurt LEAVE? May be a depression in the economy?Speedy said:The propensity of events to hit Remain is very clear, that is why it's so fragile.
A single event or two is enough to push Remain off the cliff.0 -
My thoughts exactly. I have colleagues, grown men, who openly talk about all this DC/Marvel shite. I actually watched some crappy thing, with a talking badger and Vin Diesel as a tree. I still have no idea whether is was a psychotic episode bought on by too much whisky, or if it was actually a genuine film.Speedy said:
Since they have given up to any pretense of imagination in the movie business, why don't they make a Star Wars vs Star Trek movie ?TheScreamingEagles said:
My friend has already seen it.DaemonBarber said:
SqueeeeeeeTheScreamingEagles said:
See it in less than 48 hours time.DaemonBarber said:Massively off topic.
First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review
He thought it was ok without brilliant.
Said Wonder Woman/Gal Godot is the best thing in it.
Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.0 -
Walked through Leicester Square tonight which was packed for the premiere but seems a bit of a cashcow movie to me and Ben Affleck will find it hard to fill Christian Bale's shoesDaemonBarber said:Massively off topic.
First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review0 -
Yup, know that. Very weak attempt at a pun by me: http://www.cityam.com/234298/steel-crisis-business-secretary-sajid-javid-rules-out-higher-tariffs-for-chinese-steelTheScreamingEagles said:
Batman v Superman: The Dawn of JusticeCasino_Royale said:
What? Sajid Javid?TheScreamingEagles said:
Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.DaemonBarber said:
SqueeeeeeeTheScreamingEagles said:
See it in less than 48 hours time.DaemonBarber said:Massively off topic.
First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review0 -
Batman and Superman are in the same universe to be fair.Speedy said:
Since they have given up to any pretense of imagination in the movie business, why don't they make a Star Wars vs Star Trek movie ?TheScreamingEagles said:
My friend has already seen it.DaemonBarber said:
SqueeeeeeeTheScreamingEagles said:
See it in less than 48 hours time.DaemonBarber said:Massively off topic.
First review of Batman v Superman.
http://www.denofgeek.com/movies/batman-v-superman/39387/batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-review
He thought it was ok without brilliant.
Said Wonder Woman/Gal Godot is the best thing in it.
Is going to be as divisive as Man of Steel.0 -
McDonnell skewered Osborne far more effectively than Corbyn in the House today, could he be Michael Howard to Corbyn's IDS? Howard of course was also Shadow Chancellor0
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Regarding leaflets, people put those things straight in the bin, along with free papers and other crap.0
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In that case they need to tell us, and organise us accordingly using their network. There are plenty of volunteers.Charles said:
Isn't Peter Hargreaves sending something aroynd?Casino_Royale said:
I had an email from Vote Leave today complaining about the BSE leaflets that have been issued, and we've all received, and containing rebuttals to each one.RoyalBlue said:
I know we've had Leavers bemoaning the lack of organisation, but how many people on here have actually got out and done something practical to support Remain?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Leave could organise themselves.Casino_Royale said:
My view: online polls flatter Leave, politically engaged panels, but phone polls are finding far too few don't knows and flattering Remain.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting
So they are both wrong, and the truth is somewhere inbetween.
I need to see online leads for Leave of 6%-7% before I believe Leave/Remain are at true parity, and higher than that for a narrow lead.
Was there any mention of any forthcoming leaflet from them, with their arguments on it?
No siree. No. Nothing at all. Nada.
By until the decision on which is the official campaign is made there's not much money and no free post. So it's prohibitive. I wonder who designed the rules in such a way that it favoured remain so much?
I've also volunteered to my "local area" organiser, but also haven't heard a pip.
I currently planning to order a big box of leaflets and unilaterally carpet bomb my (rather large) village on my own.
My wife thinks I need help.0
This discussion has been closed.