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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It now feels when in 2016 not if Osborne departs as Chancellor
Ladbrokes: 25/1 for George Osborne to be replaced as Chancellor before end of March.https://t.co/hODGfvMiVk pic.twitter.com/BHJ3MDqLon
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Hysteria doesn't alter the political reality, which is that there's not a snowflake's chance in hell of Osborne being moved before the referendum.
Afterwards, if it's Leave, then, yes of course, but that would be a decision for the new leader and it's unclear how quickly a new leader would be chosen.
If it's Remain, Cameron will stay in place for a while and there will be a reshuffle to unify the party and bring forward some of the younger ministers. Osborne might be moved as part of that, but I doubt it; he is, after all, by any standard an exceptionally successful Chancellor, and a change of Chancellor would make better sense for Cameron's successor to do.
I do, however, agree that Osborne's chances of being next leader have receded substantially, even before IDS's contribution to the debate. I suspect Osborne won't stand.
Are we 'all in this together'? Our charts show the impact of tax and benefit reforms
https://t.co/F21ZV5oN4x https://t.co/rFxUUkF8Ag
Of course it is in contradiction; the OBR have taken into account all the things you list in your first paragraph in arriving at their forecast. They forecast a hole, you are pretending it away.
Faisal Islam
Confirmed: David Gauke will answer UQ
Can the Tories please stop playing silly b*ggers? ta.
Who started it is the question. Dropping a cabinet colleague in it is par for the course from Osborne.
As I’ve said all along, Osborne will never be PM – perhaps some will start listening now.
Whether this will make one jot of difference to voting or polling is another matter.
"I don't need a compass to tell me which way the wind shines!" - Mr Furious (Mystery Men, 2003)
You clearly don't... or the uses and limitations of models more generally.
The appearance of civil war is obviously bad for the Tories, but what matters there is how they patch things up after the referendum.
"I don't think there is any hope of him becoming leader"- the Sun's Trevor Kavanagh on Osborne. Big paper for the chancellor to lose..#bbcdp
Lots of examples of "full confidence" followed by resignation.
But what examples are there of full confidence followed by everything carrying on as before?
Honestly, has domestic politics ever seen so much across the board dysfunction?
On this day in 1540: Asked if Thomas Cromwell still retained the full confidence of the King, the Royal spokesman said 'Absolutely'.
David Cameron's official spokesman has reiterated that Chris Huhne MP retains the full confidence of the Prime Minister
Breaking: Scotland Yard to announce closure of VIP abuse probe Op Midland later today after telling Harvey Proctor he will face no charges
If he was going to resign over the EU, wouldn't it be better to say something "the PM is a scaremongering, lying little ****" and take the fight to that battle?
There is an explanation, which refuses to die in the face of all evidence, that his departure is over Europe. I can only believe this to be because (1) he has resigned, and (2) he disagrees with the PM over Europe. But that's ignoring everything else, presumably because those who'd like to explain it in those terms have reason for doing so rather than starting from a blank sheet of paper.
As soon as a Leave PM enters Downing St the usual suspects are going to be wanting a rerun of the referendum ASAP while I suspect the PM himself won't be too keen and the country as a whole likely won't be too keen to go through all this all over again.
How do you seen that being resolved?
I assume that he realised he was going to be shuffled out of Cabinet in the event of a Remain win and his actions are therefore about damaging Osborne and the Remain grouping within the Tory party and limiting their scope for action post Referendum.
Certainly if you look at the actual PIP reform measurements that he has allegedly died in a ditch over, they were the result of an independent review and are relatively uncontroversial compared to changes that he has already implemented.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35861447
"My name is George Nathaniel Curzon,
I am a most superior person.
My cheeks are pink, my hair is sleek,
I dine at Blenheim once a week."
Sound at all familiar?
* A senior Cabinet Minister and former party leader says the Budget is unfair and the alleged fundamental theme of the Government is not being followed
* The Budget now has a large hole and there are no plans to address it before the autumn
* Rival factions are putting contradictory statements to the press
adds up to a serious meltdown. The immediate task for DC and GOP is to steady the ship.
https://twitter.com/labourwhips/status/711907939125235712/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
So why was Osborne looking at reversing them and blaming IDS for them?
Does it have Poldark in it??
Poldark?
As Faisal Islam shrewdly noted on Twitter this morning, he's fallen into the traps he himself set for Ed Balls (the surplus target and the welfare cap).
If ever there was a policy to kick into your second term, it was that.
IIRC, at the time it was some budget trade-off where George got something that he didn't actually want because the LD's didn't want him to have it.
The most striking thing is the chart showing how the forecast cost of PIP has risen dramatically - an overspend of several billion a year compared with the original expectation. That overspend obviously has a significant impact on the Treasury's deficit-reduction plans.
Given that IDS was responsible for the department which has dumped that overspend on to Osborne, I wonder how much of this is IDS jumping before he was pushed?
Clearly now the top priority at DWP must be the implementation of Universal Credit and the other welfare reforms which IDS (to his great credit) initiated. I'm a little concerned that Stephen Crabb doesn't have the experience and clout to oversee such a huge departmental organisation and budget.
"I am, of course, looking forward to your next 'anything could happen in politics at the moment' thread arguing that GE2020 will be
IDSJohn Major vs EdM vs Ming Campbell vs Kilroy-Silk and suggesting the best odds for this quadruple chance."I'm trying to place the piccie: is it somewhere around St Just / Bottalack or St Agnes?
A spectacular stretch of coast.
Electoral Commission
You’ve voted for #BoatyMcBoatface, but are you
registered to #VoteyMcVoteface in the May elections? Do it online- https://t.co/d4IvMklXaT
People sneering at Gauke doing budget UQ instead of Osborne seem to have forgotten he was Tax Personality of the Year 2011 (ht @GrantTucker)
The longer this goes on though, the less Cameron appears able (or even willing) to act as that conciliator.
Tax Personality of the Year 2016
Margaret Hodge MP
I agree that the individual measures were not especially controversial (indeed, IDS said as much in his resignation letter), but his departure was as much about Osborne overstepping his remit as anything.
The statements on Friday indicated the changes were going to be kicked into the long grass probably because with the EU ref coming up, government wanted to be as uncontroversial as possible.
The Nats held a referendum where their national [Scottish] government was backing Yes/Leave but the nation backed No/Remain anyway against the government's wishes. Since then the economic model the government based its case on (especially oil) has gone sour. There is little reason to suspect another referendum will have any different a result.
If Leave lose it will be after a referendum where the full force of British government has been backing Remain/No but the new Prime Minister wants Leave/Yes. A new referendum therefore would be held under new circumstances as the British government/state would either have to be backing Leave rather than Remain under the PM's instructions or at best neutral. Project Fear would be 180 degrees reversed if the government is backing Leave and so there's every reason to think a new referendum would have a different result.
http://nypost.com/2016/03/20/will-hillary-get-charged-or-what/
(And top marks to the picture editor for finding a photo which makes her look like a mafiosa matriarch).
That's how badly Cameron and Osborne have played the past couple of months. Their departure is a prize within reach of the coalition of the Leavers and the Haters. And the polls were already on a knife-edge....
The IDS resignation has acted as a lightning rod to conduct all the frustrations between the Cameroons and the Tory Right that have built up over the last 10 years, particularly the last six, and it ain't pretty.
I feel like we've gone back to the Summer of 2005.