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I think everyone thinks the referendum is going to be a Remain win, thus no excitement.
Whereas the Presidential markets have been unpredictable and lots of liquidity.
All I will say is thank Allah for Iowans and the betting market overreaction to the Iowa Caucus.
Over Osbornes leadership ambitions.
Would be a shame from my point of view
foxinsoxuk said:
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"The companies income belongs to the shareholders, it is a spurious distinction.
Though political parties funding is ripe for reform, I would restrict donations to individuals who are on the electoral register. Companies and Unions cannot vote as entities, so should not be able to donate in cash or in kind either."
Political donations by companies could be approved by individual and institutional shareholders if they could only be made in the form of deductions from dividend payments: shareholders would have the option of approving (or not) the deduction.
(Says the person who used Hors de combat in a thread header last weekend)
As I posted last night, I put £20 on Michael Gove as Next Chancellor at 6/1 with Ladbrokes.
I found the D'Ancona article in the ES last night (who is personally and socially very close to the Cameroons) convincing: there is an emerging alliance between Gove and Osborne IMHO.
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/matthew-dancona-the-budget-reveals-the-kind-of-britain-that-george-osborne-wants-a3204991.html
I'm not saying Osborne *will* be leader but, if he is, it will be with Gove as his No.2 and that'll be either as Chancellor, or Foreign Secretary.
It will all become clear after the referendum but, by then, these odds will be gone.
People placing their faith in the 'guarantees' the PM has negotiated for the UK should take serious note of this. The EU will do whatever it pleases, if it feels so inclined - it has developed for itself a new version of the doctrine of Papal Infallibility.
https://t.co/kkgsGTQJuM
I know PBers will laugh at it, but I reckon it might have value.
Oh you're talking about the people that laid Cruz at 70/1?
An Osborne - Gove top two for the Tory party would be electorally unappealing to a lot of the country. Sadly the current Tory party behaviour shows they seem to have forgot a lot of the lessons of the 90's / 00's.
The Tories are approaching (desperately needed) TU funding reform from the wrong (partisan) end.
They should be breaking the control exercised by the Union leaderships, who are likely to be extemists, in favour of the political parties supported by members. For the largest Unions, barely half of the members vote Labour.
The Union claim is to represent their members; in political funding they do not.
Let the members decide which legal political party they support, and make that the measure of where party political funds should go.
There is still the question around Union leaderships supporting "non-party" political campaigns (eg various websites), but it would be a start, and could be applied similarly to corportate donations.
Apart from that, good points.
You're such a class act, Roger.
The EU is about to meet its Waterloogate.
Trump Hate is so OTT.
Today even the most ardent Leaver is saying Cameron must stay even if he loses the referendum.
Ouchtastic
This morning we hear that Conservative opponents of George Osborne are plotting his demise by rebelling against a budget.
This is a party that believes that it can afford a civil war. It is mistaken in that belief.
"Admittedly, though, if the world economy misbehaves and/or Osborne is proved wrong about the Brexit vote, but right about its consequences, then the borrowing and debt numbers will turn out to be higher. But in that event, not only will Osborne have to kiss goodbye to his hopes of becoming Prime Minister, but he probably won’t still be Chancellor. There is a real possibility that this Budget will turn out to have been his last."
When Cameron came to the House to recommend Remain, it should have been a difficult moment for Dave and the Tory party.
What happened ? It was civil and the Tory party couldn't stop laughing at Corbyn
http://youtu.be/TCbWLeJ35cA
FWIW I find a lot of the 2015 intake v.impressive and I like Jesse Norman as an interesting longshot.
Neither result is going to lead to a Conservative party at ease with itself.
#BREAKING Germany's Spiegel magazine says forced to withdraw Turkey correspondent
Germany decides to close its embassy in Ankara & its consulate in Istanbul as a result of threatening its security. https://t.co/w1sLjvgW6r
Whatever the outcome I am 100% sure that is wrong.
Not only that, but the Germans are trying to butter up Turkey over the migrant crisis, and this sort of thing seems unlikely to help.
Youth unemployment, the scourge of much of Europe, has plummeted in Britain https://t.co/t2xeDXOk5F https://t.co/Lm6Bdtp5tB
There is the assumption that if Corbyn is replaced by another left-winger they would be equally unpopular. Ie, a failure to see that Corbyn's low approval is - possibly - more to do with his being an ineffectual duffer than a raging pinko.
Then, people seem to forget how precarious the Conservatives' position in the Commons is and how few seats they could afford to lose and stay in government.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/german-embassy-ankara-closed-turkey-imminent-attack-a6936051.html
If Leave win, I agree that it's more uncertain in that the issue will become the nature of the Brexit deal we are seeking, but that's not going to be as divisive with the party as you think (it will remain divisive compared with UKIP). The key point here is that those voting Remain are almost all not doing so with any enthusiasm (there aren't many Ken Clarkes or Damian Greens in the party). So they will happily go along with the decision and support a Leaver as leader.
As I've said before, we have to be careful not to get misled by the salience of the EU issue now. It won't be so salient in a year's time, at least if it's a Remain result.
Either way your bet looks a good one - unfortunately Laddies are the only bookie offering this market and their price this morning is a somewhat skinny 5/1.
They are now having to use stuff like brown coal.
https://youtu.be/1d09MsMkBuI
As I've said passim, Turkey's frightened. It's a shame that the Solution Process broke down last year. A great missed opportunity.
Even though some have tried to damage him with Queengate.
No idea at this point !
Also was a tax on sugary drinks REALLY the biggest item from the budget yesterday ?! Seems small beer to me but yet it was getting all the morning news. Unless you spend a horrendous amount on sugary drinks surely the other changes are alot more relevant.
Prestbury park yesterday was going badly, right till Sprinter Sacre bounded up the hill for a tremendously emotional (And very profitable) win. Sometimes, just occasionally it is OK to bet with your heart and dreams.
Did George make any tough decisions or hard choices
Did you manage to trade out of Missouri btw ? I was a bit shocked to see Hillary take it.
Brokered is at 38pc vs 62pc non brokered. I've assumed Trump accounts for 60/62 of the non-brokered probability and Cruz the other 2/62.
There is a bookies overhead on the combined nomination prices of all the candidates, which add up to around about 110%, and I'm not sure how best to calculate the residual probability it implies for a brokered convention.
So, if round nomination price odds to 100 first, implies Trump = (72/1.1)-60 = 5.4/38 = 14% chance in a brokered convention.
If round odds afterwards, Trump = 72-60 = 12/48 (25% chance)
Think I prefer the latter and quote further below, but the proper gamblers can perhaps advise on the right calculation to use and where any value might be in these implications:
Cruz @ 15-2 =13/48 (27%)
Kasich = 9/48 (19%)
Ryan = 6/48 (13%)
Romney = 4/48 (8%)
Others = approx (less than) 4/48 (8%)
That high a chance....
So no gain rather than a loss.
Trinity Mirror has rapidly reversed its decision to freeze the price of its new national newspaper the New Day, doubling the cover price to 50p despite sales falling to less than 90,000.
The New Day has seen its sales fall from a high of about 150,000 copies set in the days after the title launched on 29 February.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/mar/17/the-new-day-price-sales-slide-trinity-mirror
Did they hire an Apple "Genius", thinking they were a real genius? How long before they put it out of its misery?
Edit: that's at the Convention, of course.
Prior to then, I think Cruz has some probability, but I have sold out a bit on him.
Also, the EU is going to be in a situation where Syrians, Afghans, Iraqis (ie genuine refugees fleeing war and persecution) are going to be deported en masse but in the next few weeks when the weather improves in the Mediterranean, thousands of Sub Saharan Africans are going to set sail from Libya for Italy. They are not refugees but economic migrants. But they wont be deported back to Libya as the Country is in chaos so they will presumably be free to roam Europe??
Mind you I was the idiot who, when Trump's odds to be POTUS were 150/1, Trump will never be POTUS.
They know the huge turnout he's generating will slap them in the face if they're caught trying to fix this.
It's damage limitation now to bring him into the fold.
13:30 Three Musketeers
14:10: Un Ace
14:50: Taquin Du Seuil
15:30: Aux Ptits Soins
16:10: Salubrious
16:50: Girly Girl
17:30: Perfect Candidate
It's at times like this when I realise what a short-sighted, petty minded island people we really are.
What I can see happening, possibly, is Cruz winning over enough of the Trump delegates to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, if he's already reasonably close and Trump doesn't have the 1,237 he needs to win on the first round of voting. One thing we have learned is that the Cruz campaign is very well organised, and they will no doubt be studying the Byzantine state-specific rules governing how delegates can behave in order to stuff the convention with as many Cruz-friendly people as possible. No-one else is likely to be making much progress in doing the same.
It's a long-shot for Cruz, of course, but perhaps just possible. Much more likely, though, is that Trump will take on, and lose to, Hillary.
36% Remain
36% Leave
28% Don't Know
If you assume, as I do, that even if there is a brokered convention then no majority at the convention can be constructed without one of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, it seems highly implausible to me that the nominee will not be one of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.
What motivation does Donald Trump have for standing aside? I can't think of any.
What motivation does Ted Cruz have for backing any candidate other than himself or Donald Trump? He's a young man, obviously highly ambitious, who will have his eye on future opportunities. Being part of an establishment stitch-up against Donald Trump that does not directly benefit him would do him no favours at all. And it's hardly as if the establishment are fond of him in the first place. They hate him almost as much as Donald Trump - more in some cases, I think - so he's not going to believe that they're going to smooth his path at any point in the future, even if they can (which personally I doubt, given this election round).
I appreciate that not all delegates are bound after the first vote but the idea of huge numbers of faithless delegates switching to entirely new candidates in later rounds seems strictly Hollywood fantasy to me.
So it will be one or other of these two.
Off to the big top hat in the sky. RIP.
In fairness this has been stopped by George.