I was told last night, Project Fear hasn't even started, all we're seeing is the phoney war 1939 stuff.
Project Fear will start in earnest on May the 9th.
What people forget is that it will be self-reinforcing. If the polls indicate a close result, sterling will keep falling and there will be lots of talking heads on the TV saying that this is because business is very worried about Brexit. This won't be a debate undertaken purely in the abstract.
From now on I suspect we are going to start hearing a fair bit more from Labour -and the commentariat as a whole - about 'Osborne's Mess'. The electorate are also like to be increasingly receptive to such a message.
So when do you predict the first poll showing John McDonnell is more preferred as Chancellor than Osborne?
That;s gone from being lala bonkers what are you smoking, to worth pricing up.
Even you praised Ozzy yesterday. Made want to stick a grand on Ozzy as next Tory leader/PM.
(and check the Book of Revelation, that AlanBrooke praising Ozzy wasn't foretold in The Book of Revelation somewhere between The Seven Headed Dragon and The Whore of Babylon)
LOL
TSE, if I am happy enough to give credit where it is dus and employment is an Osborne success, then perhaps you might be gracious enough to admit where he has failed :
the deficit, growth, AAA. BOP, infrastructure, rebalancing the economy, tax reform, banks that are too big to fail.
You're like Wnger wanting to talk about your goal while ignoring the 5 from Barca as somehow not relevant.
I admit he has failed by the targets he set himself.
I'm just more forgiving of the legacy he was given and take that in to account.
Whereas I take the view if he spent more time on the day job and less time dicking about in other people's business he might be a better Chancellor.
What summed it up for me was the germans announce €264 bn of infrastucture yesterday which will create jobs and improve the underlying productivity of their economy while George bussies himself with banning Happy Meals.
He's just not credible.
I respect that (and remember I've defended you from attacks on here) but I think Ozzy would be an awesome Chancellor had he inherited a deficit he currently rather than the £150bn odd he inherited.
From now on I suspect we are going to start hearing a fair bit more from Labour -and the commentariat as a whole - about 'Osborne's Mess'. The electorate are also like to be increasingly receptive to such a message.
So when do you predict the first poll showing John McDonnell is more preferred as Chancellor than Osborne?
That;s gone from being lala bonkers what are you smoking, to worth pricing up.
Even you praised Ozzy yesterday. Made want to stick a grand on Ozzy as next Tory leader/PM.
(and check the Book of Revelation, that AlanBrooke praising Ozzy wasn't foretold in The Book of Revelation somewhere between The Seven Headed Dragon and The Whore of Babylon)
LOL
TSE, if I am happy enough to give credit where it is dus and employment is an Osborne success, then perhaps you might be gracious enough to admit where he has failed :
the deficit, growth, AAA. BOP, infrastructure, rebalancing the economy, tax reform, banks that are too big to fail.
You're like Wnger wanting to talk about your goal while ignoring the 5 from Barca as somehow not relevant.
I admit he has failed by the targets he set himself.
I'm just more forgiving of the legacy he was given and take that in to account.
Whereas I take the view if he spent more time on the day job and less time dicking about in other people's business he might be a better Chancellor.
What summed it up for me was the germans announce €264 bn of infrastucture yesterday which will create jobs and improve the underlying productivity of their economy while George bussies himself with banning Happy Meals.
He's just not credible.
I respect that (and remember I've defended you from attacks on here) but I think Ozzy would be an awesome Chancellor had he inherited a deficit he currently rather than the £150bn odd he inherited.
From now on I suspect we are going to start hearing a fair bit more from Labour -and the commentariat as a whole - about 'Osborne's Mess'. The electorate are also like to be increasingly receptive to such a message.
So when do you predict the first poll showing John McDonnell is more preferred as Chancellor than Osborne?
I have absolutely no idea , but I do not believe that such a development is a prerequisite of my prediction. How often in the past has a Shadow Chancellor been more favoured than the incumbent?
Plus, I'd point out your metric isn't a good one.
From November 2014
Brown 'was a better chancellor than Osborne'
Six months later the Tories and their economic message won a majority
Yes , but I am not attaching particular significance to the standing of one Chancellor in relation to another. People could have been asked their opinions on Osborne in relation to Nigel Lawson or Roy Jenkins, but I would not have expected any negative response to have impacted on the 2015 election. My gut feeling is that we are now reaching the point when voters will judge the Government on its own record and reliance on'Labour's mess' to justify its problems will no longer reverberate when Osborne is increasingly being accused of having created a mess of his own.
From now on I suspect we are going to start hearing a fair bit more from Labour -and the commentariat as a whole - about 'Osborne's Mess'. The electorate are also like to be increasingly receptive to such a message.
So when do you predict the first poll showing John McDonnell is more preferred as Chancellor than Osborne?
That;s gone from being lala bonkers what are you smoking, to worth pricing up.
Even you praised Ozzy yesterday. Made want to stick a grand on Ozzy as next Tory leader/PM.
(and check the Book of Revelation, that AlanBrooke praising Ozzy wasn't foretold in The Book of Revelation somewhere between The Seven Headed Dragon and The Whore of Babylon)
LOL
TSE, if I am happy enough to give credit where it is dus and employment is an Osborne success, then perhaps you might be gracious enough to admit where he has failed :
the deficit, growth, AAA. BOP, infrastructure, rebalancing the economy, tax reform, banks that are too big to fail.
You're like Wnger wanting to talk about your goal while ignoring the 5 from Barca as somehow not relevant.
I admit he has failed by thwhile George bussies himself with banning Happy Meals.
He's just not credible.
I respect that (and remember I've defended you from attacks on here) but I think Ozzy would be an awesome Chancellor had he inherited a deficit he currently rather than the £150bn odd he inherited.
Sorry Mr Eagles it's not about the legacy, though clearly that has to be taken in to account. It;s about having a Chancellor who recognises we need some fundamental reforms to lift the undelying productivity and therefore wealth creating abilities of our economy.
To do that we need some of our vested interests given a good once over, We need a simplified tax code. We need ecouragement for productive investment. We need a serious overhaul of our decaying infrastucture. We need a rebalanced economy where all our eggs aren't in fact one giant egg marked Financial Services.
From now on I suspect we are going to start hearing a fair bit more from Labour -and the commentariat as a whole - about 'Osborne's Mess'. The electorate are also like to be increasingly receptive to such a message.
So when do you predict the first poll showing John McDonnell is more preferred as Chancellor than Osborne?
That;s gone from being lala bonkers what are you smoking, to worth pricing up.
Even you praised Ozzy yesterday. Made want to stick a grand on Ozzy as next Tory leader/PM.
(and check the Book of Revelation, that AlanBrooke praising Ozzy wasn't foretold in The Book of Revelation somewhere between The Seven Headed Dragon and The Whore of Babylon)
LOL
TSE, if I am happy enough to give credit where it is dus and employment is an Osborne success, then perhaps you might be gracious enough to admit where he has failed :
the deficit, growth, AAA. BOP, infrastructure, rebalancing the economy, tax reform, banks that are too big to fail.
You're like Wnger wanting to talk about your goal while ignoring the 5 from Barca as somehow not relevant.
I admit he has failed by the targets he set himself.
I'm just more forgiving of the legacy he was given and take that in to account.
Whereas I take the view if he spent more time on the day job and less time dicking about in other people's business he might be a better Chancellor.
What summed it up for me was the germans announce €264 bn of infrastucture yesterday which will create jobs and improve the underlying productivity of their economy while George bussies himself with banning Happy Meals.
He's just not credible.
I respect that (and remember I've defended you from attacks on here) but I think Ozzy would be an awesome Chancellor had he inherited a deficit he currently rather than the £150bn odd he inherited.
Eh ??
He inherited a budget deficit of £150 bn odd in 2010, that limited his room to do stuff.
In 1979 when Geoffrey Howe became Chancellor, he was fortunate the Callaghan and Healey via the IMF had turned off the taps and cut spending. Whereas Brown and Darling had turned on the taps, to cause Ozzy maximum damage
(1) Things stay as they are. Differential turnout and events help a little bit but, ultimately, voting don't knows break for Remain, and people bottle it in the polling both, as they are so scared. This is my base assumption 58/42 to Remain. (2) Vote Leave get official status in mid-April, and sort their shit out. A thorough, professional well-planned, well-resourced media-grid based campaign is launched with sensible moderate cross party figures making set piece speeches and winning debates. Reassurance is offered on Brexit outcomes and a future vision for the UK outwith, plus a reverse Project Fear is launched on the real risks of Remain. This is my optimistic assumption for Leave - 52/48 to Remain. A narrow miss.
I assess a 65% probability of the first and 35% of the second.
All other options are out IMHO.
A weighted average of your two possible outcomes produces 56% REMAIN and 44% LEAVE. As such, you are very close to the current betting market where Sporting has mid-market spreads of 53.7% REMAIN and 46.3% LEAVE.
I wonder if I'm alone in having decided to vote LEAVE, principally as a protest against the way in which the Government in general and Cameron in particular are rushing the referendum through, whilst trying to pretend that the so-called renegotiated terms actually amount to something meaningful, whereas in truth they assuredly do not. Secretly my head is nevertheless hoping for a REMAIN outcome, fearful of the consequences of the alternative.
Thanks. But, blimey: Project Fear is working on you too!
I suspect you are not alone. Personally, both my head and heart are for Leave, but I doubt they'll be enough of us.
I was told last night, Project Fear hasn't even started, all we're seeing is the phoney war 1939 stuff.
Project Fear will start in earnest on May the 9th.
And take it to a new level of absurdity after foreign holidays, Gibraltar and children's books? Brexit to put AV threads in jeopardy etc.
I was told last night, Project Fear hasn't even started, all we're seeing is the phoney war 1939 stuff.
Project Fear will start in earnest on May the 9th.
What people forget is that it will be self-reinforcing. If the polls indicate a close result, sterling will keep falling and there will be lots of talking heads on the TV saying that this is because business is very worried about Brexit. This won't be a debate undertaken purely in the abstract.
Yes , but I am not attaching particular significance to the standing of one Chancellor in relation to another. People could have been asked their opinions on Osborne in relation to Nigel Lawson or Roy Jenkins, but I would not have expected any negative response to have impacted on the 2015 election. My gut feeling is that we are now reaching the point when voters will judge the Government on its own record and reliance on'Labour's mess' to justify its problems will no longer reverberate when Osborne is increasingly being accused of having created a mess of his own.
This 'mess' you are talking about - I take it you mean the best, or one of the best, performing economies in the developed world?
From now on I suspect we are going to start hearing a fair bit more from Labour -and the commentariat as a whole - about 'Osborne's Mess'. The electorate are also like to be increasingly receptive to such a message.
So when do you predict the first poll showing John McDonnell is more preferred as Chancellor than Osborne?
That;s gone from being lala bonkers what are you smoking, to worth pricing up.
Even you praised Ozzy yesterday. Made want to stick a grand on Ozzy as next Tory leader/PM.
(and check the Book of Revelation, that AlanBrooke praising Ozzy wasn't foretold in The Book of Revelation somewhere between The Seven Headed Dragon and The Whore of Babylon)
LOL
TSE, if I am happy enough to give credit where it is dus and employment is an Osborne success, then perhaps you might be gracious enough to admit where he has failed :
the deficit, growth, AAA. BOP, infrastructure, rebalancing the economy, tax reform, banks that are too big to fail.
You're like Wnger wanting to talk about your goal while ignoring the 5 from Barca as somehow not relevant.
I admit he has failed by thwhile George bussies himself with banning Happy Meals.
He's just not credible.
I respect that (and remember I've defended you from attacks on here) but I think Ozzy would be an awesome Chancellor had he inherited a deficit he currently rather than the £150bn odd he inherited.
Sorry Mr Eagles it's not about the legacy, though clearly that has to be taken in to account. It;s about having a Chancellor who recognises we need some fundamental reforms to lift the undelying productivity and therefore wealth creating abilities of our economy.
To do that we need some of our vested interests given a good once over, We need a simplified tax code. We need ecouragement for productive investment. We need a serious overhaul of our decaying infrastucture. We need a rebalanced economy where all our eggs aren't in fact one giant egg marked Financial Services.
Osborne's failure to simplify the Tax Code is one of the most disappointing failures of his time in office. Yesterday's shenanigans merely confirming that he has no interest whosoever in reforming it. Brown to the core.
From now on I suspect we are going to start hearing a fair bit more from Labour -and the commentariat as a whole - about 'Osborne's Mess'. The electorate are also like to be increasingly receptive to such a message.
So when do you predict the first poll showing John McDonnell is more preferred as Chancellor than Osborne?
Let's start with the Shadow Chancellor being more popular among Labour supporters.
Good news, I'm not going to Old Trafford tonight, bloody sciatica.
Well hope you're feeling better soon, and remember that if we get one goal they need four!
(1) Things stay as they are. Differential turnout and events help a little bit but, ultimately, voting don't knows break for Remain, and people bottle it in the polling both, as they are so scared. This is my base assumption 58/42 to Remain. (2) Vote Leave get official status in mid-April, and sort their shit out. A thorough, professional well-planned, well-resourced media-grid based campaign is launched with sensible moderate cross party figures making set piece speeches and winning debates. Reassurance is offered on Brexit outcomes and a future vision for the UK outwith, plus a reverse Project Fear is launched on the real risks of Remain. This is my optimistic assumption for Leave - 52/48 to Remain. A narrow miss.
I assess a 65% probability of the first and 35% of the second.
All other options are out IMHO.
A weighted average of your two possible outcomes produces 56% REMAIN and 44% LEAVE. As such, you are very close to the current betting market where Sporting has mid-market spreads of 53.7% REMAIN and 46.3% LEAVE.
I wonder if I'm alone in having decided to vote LEAVE, principally as a protest against the way in which the Government in general and Cameron in particular are rushing the referendum through, whilst trying to pretend that the so-called renegotiated terms actually amount to something meaningful, whereas in truth they assuredly do not. Secretly my head is nevertheless hoping for a REMAIN outcome, fearful of the consequences of the alternative.
Thanks. But, blimey: Project Fear is working on you too!
I suspect you are not alone. Personally, both my head and heart are for Leave, but I doubt they'll be enough of us.
I was told last night, Project Fear hasn't even started, all we're seeing is the phoney war 1939 stuff.
Project Fear will start in earnest on May the 9th.
And take it to a new level of absurdity after foreign holidays, Gibraltar and children's books? Brexit to put AV threads in jeopardy etc.
In the background of Sterling falling, Brexit to be a risk to your pensions, jobs, wages, house prices, mortgages, interest rates to rise, will cause massive government spending cuts to the NHS, education as government borrowing costs rise.
It's the economy, stupid, plus it is Cameron delivering that message, people will believe him as he has the credibility on this, from last year's election.
Leave just doesn't have anyone like that, Boris is popular, but has no economic credibility.
Put it this way, were Cameron to recommend Leave, Leave would win a landslide. He's a nexus for floating voters.
Yes , but I am not attaching particular significance to the standing of one Chancellor in relation to another. People could have been asked their opinions on Osborne in relation to Nigel Lawson or Roy Jenkins, but I would not have expected any negative response to have impacted on the 2015 election. My gut feeling is that we are now reaching the point when voters will judge the Government on its own record and reliance on'Labour's mess' to justify its problems will no longer reverberate when Osborne is increasingly being accused of having created a mess of his own.
This 'mess' you are talking about - I take it you mean the best, or one of the best, performing economies in the developed world?
Nonsense you just pickthe departure point that best suits your view. The UK has had one of the slowest recoveries on record from a recession.
Casino: "I might believe him, were it not for the eye contact between those two and the cheeky girly look that Theresa is giving him as he 'appreciates' her."
Frankly, I thought Mrs May looked awful ..... the words mutton, dressed and lamb sprang to mind.
(1) Things stay as they are. Differential turnout and events help a little bit but, ultimately, voting don't knows break for Remain, and people bottle it in the polling both, as they are so scared. This is my base assumption 58/42 to Remain. (2) Vote Leave get official status in mid-April, and sort their shit out. A thorough, professional well-planned, well-resourced media-grid based campaign is launched with sensible moderate cross party figures making set piece speeches and winning debates. Reassurance is offered on Brexit outcomes and a future vision for the UK outwith, plus a reverse Project Fear is launched on the real risks of Remain. This is my optimistic assumption for Leave - 52/48 to Remain. A narrow miss.
I assess a 65% probability of the first and 35% of the second.
All other options are out IMHO.
A weighted average of your two possible outcomes produces 56% REMAIN and 44% LEAVE. As such, you are very close to the current betting market where Sporting has mid-market spreads of 53.7% REMAIN and 46.3% LEAVE.
I wonder if I'm alone in having decided to vote LEAVE, principally as a protest against the way in which the Government in general and Cameron in particular are rushing the referendum through, whilst trying to pretend that the so-called renegotiated terms actually amount to something meaningful, whereas in truth they assuredly do not. Secretly my head is nevertheless hoping for a REMAIN outcome, fearful of the consequences of the alternative.
Thanks. But, blimey: Project Fear is working on you too!
I suspect you are not alone. Personally, both my head and heart are for Leave, but I doubt they'll be enough of us.
I was told last night, Project Fear hasn't even started, all we're seeing is the phoney war 1939 stuff.
Project Fear will start in earnest on May the 9th.
And take it to a new level of absurdity after foreign holidays, Gibraltar and children's books? Brexit to put AV threads in jeopardy etc.
All TV will revert to Black and White. No foreign films. A ban on pasta and olive oil imports.
Reading the VAT on 20% for home insulation make me realise its even worse than that. VAT will also go up from 5% to 20% on biomass boilers, solar panels, wind turbines, hot water system regulators and plenty else. I.e. everything that helps save energy.
The EU, the climate's enemy.
A percentage of VAT receipts goes to the EU - so it is in their interests to put the rate up as much as possible. Of course if you don't want this you can always vote LEAVE.
(1) Things stay as they are. Differential turnout and events help a little bit but, ultimately, voting don't knows break for Remain, and people bottle it in the polling both, as they are so scared. This is my base assumption 58/42 to Remain. (2) Vote Leave get official status in mid-April, and sort their shit out. A thorough, professional well-planned, well-resourced media-grid based campaign is launched with sensible moderate cross party figures making set piece speeches and winning debates. Reassurance is offered on Brexit outcomes and a future vision for the UK outwith, plus a reverse Project Fear is launched on the real risks of Remain. This is my optimistic assumption for Leave - 52/48 to Remain. A narrow miss.
I assess a 65% probability of the first and 35% of the second.
All other options are out IMHO.
A weighted average of your two possible outcomes produces 56% REMAIN and 44% LEAVE. As such, you are very close to the current betting market where Sporting has mid-market spreads of 53.7% REMAIN and 46.3% LEAVE.
I wonder if I'm alone in having decided to vote LEAVE, principally as a protest against the way in which the Government in general and Cameron in particular are rushing the referendum through, whilst trying to pretend that the so-called renegotiated terms actually amount to something meaningful, whereas in truth they assuredly do not. Secretly my head is nevertheless hoping for a REMAIN outcome, fearful of the consequences of the alternative.
I suspect you are not alone. Personally, both my head and heart are for Leave, but I doubt they'll be enough of us.
I was told last night, Project Fear hasn't even started, all we're seeing is the phoney war 1939 stuff.
Project Fear will start in earnest on May the 9th.
And take it to a new level of absurdity after foreign holidays, Gibraltar and children's books? Brexit to put AV threads in jeopardy etc.
In the background of Sterling falling, Brexit to be a risk to your pensions, jobs, wages, house prices, mortgages, interest rates to rise, will cause massive government spending cuts to the NHS, education as government borrowing costs rise.
It's the economy, stupid, plus it is Cameron delivering that message, people will believe him as he has the credibility on this, from last year's election.
Leave just doesn't have anyone like that, Boris is popular, but has no economic credibility.
Put it this way, were Cameron to recommend Leave, Leave would win a landslide. He's a nexus for floating voters.
(1) Things stay as they are. Differential turnout and events help a little bit but, ultimately, voting don't knows break for Remain, and people bottle it in the polling both, as they are so scared. This is my base assumption 58/42 to Remain. (2) Vote Leave get official status in mid-April, and sort their shit out. A thorough, professional well-planned, well-resourced media-grid based campaign is launched with sensible moderate cross party figures making set piece speeches and winning debates. Reassurance is offered on Brexit outcomes and a future vision for the UK outwith, plus a reverse Project Fear is launched on the real risks of Remain. This is my optimistic assumption for Leave - 52/48 to Remain. A narrow miss.
I assess a 65% probability of the first and 35% of the second.
All other options are out IMHO.
A weighted average of e.
Thanks. But, blimey: Project Fear is working on you too!
I suspect you are not alone. Personally, both my head and heart are for Leave, but I doubt they'll be enough of us.
I was told last night, Project Fear hasn't even started, all we're seeing is the phoney war 1939 stuff.
Project Fear will start in earnest on May the 9th.
And take it to a new level of absurdity after foreign holidays, Gibraltar and children's books? Brexit to put AV threads in jeopardy etc.
In the background of Sterling falling, Brexit to be a risk to your pensions, jobs, wages, house prices, mortgages, interest rates to rise, will cause massive government spending cuts to the NHS, education as government borrowing costs rise.
It's the economy, stupid, plus it is Cameron delivering that message, people will believe him as he has the credibility on this, from last year's election.
Leave just doesn't have anyone like that, Boris is popular, but has no economic credibility.
Put it this way, were Cameron to recommend Leave, Leave would win a landslide. He's a nexus for floating voters.
I don;t think that's Camerons problem his problem is crusty old bastards who can think for themselves vote heavily and don't really listen to spin.
He needs to get the young and gullible out to make his vote cast iron.
Stephen Crabb is interesting. He has a beard which fits nicely with the new anti-politics and his background should have Tories eating out of his hand. I don't really buy what some said about lacking charisma. Compared to whom? Osborne? May? Javid?
Let's face it though he hasn't really been tested yet and if Cameron is forced out quickly it may be too soon for him. 2018-19 perhaps?
I grew up in Pembrokeshire and can assure you that compared with earlier MPs for the area -such as Desmond Donnelly and Nicholas Edwards - Stephen Crabb is seen as a political pigmy. He also came very close to being ruined during the Expenses Scandal. Moreover, since Devolution the post of Secretary of State for Wales is pretty much a non-job which many would favour being abolished. Crabb wasn't even Cameron's first choice, being appointed only after David Jones was found lacking. He is not disliked as such , but is certainly not on the radar of even his own constituents in the way that his predecessors were.
people will believe him as he has the credibility on this, from last year's election.
His credibility is surely no greater than Blair's in 1999-2003 is it? All the same scare stories were used then re. euro membership. Why didn't it work?
Add in the top people who worked for CCHQ at the last election are now working for Remain who are united, whilst Leave are still farting around trying to get lead campaign status.
(1) Things stay as they are. Differential turnout and events help a little bit but, ultimately, voting don't knows break for Remain, and people bottle it in the polling both, as they are so scared. This is my base assumption 58/42 to Remain. (2) Vote Leave get official status in mid-April, and sort their shit out. A thorough, professional well-planned, well-resourced media-grid based campaign is launched with sensible moderate cross party figures making set piece speeches and winning debates. Reassurance is offered on Brexit outcomes and a future vision for the UK outwith, plus a reverse Project Fear is launched on the real risks of Remain. This is my optimistic assumption for Leave - 52/48 to Remain. A narrow miss.
I assess a 65% probability of the first and 35% of the second.
All other options are out IMHO.
A weighted average of your two possible outcomes produces 56% REMAIN and 44% LEAVE. As such, you are very close to the current betting market where Sporting has mid-market spreads of 53.7% REMAIN and 46.3% LEAVE.
I wonder if I'm alone in having decided to vote LEAVE, principally as a protest against the way in which the Government in general and Cameron in particular are rushing the referendum through, whilst trying to pretend that the so-called renegotiated terms actually amount to something meaningful, whereas in truth they assuredly do not. Secretly my head is nevertheless hoping for a REMAIN outcome, fearful of the consequences of the alternative.
Thanks. But, blimey: Project Fear is working on you too!
I suspect you are not alone. Personally, both my head and heart are for Leave, but I doubt they'll be enough of us.
I was told last night, Project Fear hasn't even started, all we're seeing is the phoney war 1939 stuff.
Project Fear will start in earnest on May the 9th.
And take it to a new level of absurdity after foreign holidays, Gibraltar and children's books? Brexit to put AV threads in jeopardy etc.
All TV will revert to Black and White. No foreign films. A ban on pasta and olive oil imports.
I was told last night, Project Fear hasn't even started, all we're seeing is the phoney war 1939 stuff.
Project Fear will start in earnest on May the 9th.
What people forget is that it will be self-reinforcing. If the polls indicate a close result, sterling will keep falling and there will be lots of talking heads on the TV saying that this is because business is very worried about Brexit. This won't be a debate undertaken purely in the abstract.
I'm sure Remain wouldn't deliberately talk down the economy and the country would they?
We have TNS level-pegging. ICM level-pegging, 1% Lead for Leave, 2% lead for Remain Yougov, about 3% lead for remain. BMG 2% lead for Remain ORB 4% lead for Leave (online) and 2% lead for Leave (phone) Survation (phone) 15% lead for Remain.
I'm about 80% certain that Remain will win.
No one likes the EU but I don't think the voters will have the courage to do what their Government will not.
I am also hearing 'better the devil you know' and a few of Project Fear's straplines repeated a lot socially.
It is not enough for Leave to rely on turnout and events.
Project Fear versus Project Be LEAVE!
It's more Project Shit Your Pants now, to be honest.
people will believe him as he has the credibility on this, from last year's election.
His credibility is surely no greater than Blair's in 1999-2003 is it? All the same scare stories were used then re. euro membership. Why didn't it work?
Because the Tory party by in large were opposed to joining the Euro.
This referendum is going to see the Tories and Lab singing from the same hymn sheet.
Casino: "I might believe him, were it not for the eye contact between those two and the cheeky girly look that Theresa is giving him as he 'appreciates' her."
Frankly, I thought Mrs May looked awful ..... the words mutton, dressed and lamb sprang to mind.
I have a lot of sympathy for a chancellor who changes the tax code and puts money into roads and railways - the government can't encourage by direct investment without breaching EU rules - direct action is not possible.
Yes , but I am not attaching particular significance to the standing of one Chancellor in relation to another. People could have been asked their opinions on Osborne in relation to Nigel Lawson or Roy Jenkins, but I would not have expected any negative response to have impacted on the 2015 election. My gut feeling is that we are now reaching the point when voters will judge the Government on its own record and reliance on'Labour's mess' to justify its problems will no longer reverberate when Osborne is increasingly being accused of having created a mess of his own.
This 'mess' you are talking about - I take it you mean the best, or one of the best, performing economies in the developed world?
Growth of 2 to 2.5% growth from a very severe recession is far from impressive particularly when compared with earlier recoveries despite exchange rate flexibility and ultra loose monetary policy. He has consistently failed in terms of the targets he has set himself and the Balance of Payments is in a hell of a mess. You may disagree but I do sense that the narrative is changing.
(1) Things stay as they are. Differential turnout and events help a little bit but, ultimately, voting don't knows break for Remain, and people bottle it in the polling both, as they are so scared. This is my base assumption 58/42 to Remain. (2) Vote Leave get official status in mid-April, and sort their shit out. A thorough, professional well-planned, well-resourced media-grid based campaign is launched with sensible moderate cross party figures making set piece speeches and winning debates. Reassurance is offered on Brexit outcomes and a future vision for the UK outwith, plus a reverse Project Fear is launched on the real risks of Remain. This is my optimistic assumption for Leave - 52/48 to Remain. A narrow miss.
I assess a 65% probability of the first and 35% of the second.
All other options are out IMHO.
A weighted average of your two possible outcomes produces 56% REMAIN and 44% LEAVE. As such, you are very close to the current betting market where Sporting has mid-market spreads of 53.7% REMAIN and 46.3% LEAVE.
I wonder if I'm alone in having decided to vote LEAVE, principally as a protest against the way in which the Government in general and Cameron in particular are rushing the referendum through, whilst trying to pretend that the so-called renegotiated terms actually amount to something meaningful, whereas in truth they assuredly do not. Secretly my head is nevertheless hoping for a REMAIN outcome, fearful of the consequences of the alternative.
Thanks. But, blimey: Project Fear is working on you too!
I suspect you are not alone. Personally, both my head and heart are for Leave, but I doubt they'll be enough of us.
I was told last night, Project Fear hasn't even started, all we're seeing is the phoney war 1939 stuff.
Project Fear will start in earnest on May the 9th.
And take it to a new level of absurdity after foreign holidays, Gibraltar and children's books? Brexit to put AV threads in jeopardy etc.
All TV will revert to Black and White. No foreign films. A ban on pasta and olive oil imports.
Bradley Wiggins will become Belgian for the purpose of his 2012 TdF win.
failing to notice that the trump is not particularly extreme compared to cruz or rubio
That's a very good point, Trump is the clear moderate choice in the race. Kasich sounds reasonable until you get to his foreign policy which sounds like an attempt to start World War III more than anything else.
people will believe him as he has the credibility on this, from last year's election.
His credibility is surely no greater than Blair's in 1999-2003 is it? All the same scare stories were used then re. euro membership. Why didn't it work?
Because the Tory party by in large were opposed to joining the Euro.
This referendum is going to see the Tories and Lab singing from the same hymn sheet.
(1) Things stay as they are. Differential turnout and events help a little bit but, ultimately, voting don't knows break for Remain, and people bottle it in the polling both, as they are so scared. This is my base assumption 58/42 to Remain. (2) Vote Leave get official status in mid-April, and sort their shit out. A thorough, professional well-planned, well-resourced media-grid based campaign is launched with sensible moderate cross party figures making set piece speeches and winning debates. Reassurance is offered on Brexit outcomes and a future vision for the UK outwith, plus a reverse Project Fear is launched on the real risks of Remain. This is my optimistic assumption for Leave - 52/48 to Remain. A narrow miss.
I assess a 65% probability of the first and 35% of the second.
All other options are out IMHO.
A weighted average of your two possible outcomes produces 56% REMAIN and 44% LEAVE. As such, you are very close to the current betting market where Sporting has mid-market spreads of 53.7% REMAIN and 46.3% LEAVE.
I wonder if I'm alone in having decided to vote LEAVE, principally as a protest against the way in which the Government in general and Cameron in particular are rushing the referendum through, whilst trying to pretend that the so-called renegotiated terms actually amount to something meaningful, whereas in truth they assuredly do not. Secretly my head is nevertheless hoping for a REMAIN outcome, fearful of the consequences of the alternative.
Thanks. But, blimey: Project Fear is working on you too!
I suspect you are not alone. Personally, both my head and heart are for Leave, but I doubt they'll be enough of us.
I was told last night, Project Fear hasn't even started, all we're seeing is the phoney war 1939 stuff.
Project Fear will start in earnest on May the 9th.
And take it to a new level of absurdity after foreign holidays, Gibraltar and children's books? Brexit to put AV threads in jeopardy etc.
All TV will revert to Black and White.
The Treaty of Rome, wot initiated the whole European Community, dates from the black and white era: 1958.
(1) Things stay as they are. Differential turnout and events help a little bit but, ultimately, voting don't knows break for Remain, and people bottle it in the polling both, as they are so scared. This is my base assumption 58/42 to Remain. (2) Vote Leave get official status in mid-April, and sort their shit out. A thorough, professional well-planned, well-resourced media-grid based campaign is launched with sensible moderate cross party figures making set piece speeches and winning debates. Reassurance is offered on Brexit outcomes and a future vision for the UK outwith, plus a reverse Project Fear is launched on the real risks of Remain. This is my optimistic assumption for Leave - 52/48 to Remain. A narrow miss.
I assess a 65% probability of the first and 35% of the second.
All other options are out IMHO.
A weighted average of your two possible outcomes produces 56% REMAIN and 44% LEAVE. As such, you are very close to the current betting market where Sporting has mid-market spreads of 53.7% REMAIN and 46.3% LEAVE.
I wonder if I'm alone in having decided to vote LEAVE, principally as a protest against the way in which the Government in general and Cameron in particular are rushing the referendum through, whilst trying to pretend that the so-called renegotiated terms actually amount to something meaningful, whereas in truth they assuredly do not. Secretly my head is nevertheless hoping for a REMAIN outcome, fearful of the consequences of the alternative.
Thanks. But, blimey: Project Fear is working on you too!
I suspect you are not alone. Personally, both my head and heart are for Leave, but I doubt they'll be enough of us.
I was told last night, Project Fear hasn't even started, all we're seeing is the phoney war 1939 stuff.
Project Fear will start in earnest on May the 9th.
And take it to a new level of absurdity after foreign holidays, Gibraltar and children's books? Brexit to put AV threads in jeopardy etc.
All TV will revert to Black and White. No foreign films. A ban on pasta and olive oil imports.
Bradley Wiggins will become Belgian for the purpose of his 2012 TdF win.
this seems quite unlikely on many levels, but then so did the mafia fixing pantani's haematocrit in 1999 to avoid going bankrupt.... cyclings an odd sport. maybe. or all sports are the same and we've not caught up yet?
(1) Things stay as they are. Differential turnout and events help a little bit but, ultimately, voting don't knows break for Remain, and people bottle it in the polling both, as they are so scared. This is my base assumption 58/42 to Remain. (2) Vote Leave get official status in mid-April, and sort their shit out. A thorough, professional well-planned, well-resourced media-grid based campaign is launched with sensible moderate cross party figures making set piece speeches and winning debates. Reassurance is offered on Brexit outcomes and a future vision for the UK outwith, plus a reverse Project Fear is launched on the real risks of Remain. This is my optimistic assumption for Leave - 52/48 to Remain. A narrow miss.
I assess a 65% probability of the first and 35% of the second.
All other options are out IMHO.
A weighted average of your two possible outcomes produces 56% REMAIN and 44% LEAVE. As such, you are very close to the current betting market where Sporting has mid-market spreads of 53.7% REMAIN and 46.3% LEAVE.
I wonder if I'm alone in having decided to vote LEAVE, principally as a protest against the way in which the Government in general and Cameron in particular are rushing the referendum through, whilst trying to pretend that the so-called renegotiated terms actually amount to something meaningful, whereas in truth they assuredly do not. Secretly my head is nevertheless hoping for a REMAIN outcome, fearful of the consequences of the alternative.
Thanks. But, blimey: Project Fear is working on you too!
I suspect you are not alone. Personally, both my head and heart are for Leave, but I doubt they'll be enough of us.
I was told last night, Project Fear hasn't even started, all we're seeing is the phoney war 1939 stuff.
Project Fear will start in earnest on May the 9th.
And take it to a new level of absurdity after foreign holidays, Gibraltar and children's books? Brexit to put AV threads in jeopardy etc.
All TV will revert to Black and White. No foreign films. A ban on pasta and olive oil imports.
Bradley Wiggins will become Belgian for the purpose of his 2012 TdF win.
this seems quite unlikely on many levels, but then so did the mafia fixing pantani's haematocrit in 1999 to avoid going bankrupt.... cyclings an odd sport. maybe. or all sports are the same and we've not caught up yet?
Sorry, misread your post. I did read that yesterday, also the questions of was he really murdered.
Add in the top people who worked for CCHQ at the last election are now working for Remain who are united, whilst Leave are still farting around trying to get lead campaign status.
Mr Eagles I'm 55 this year. Here's a selection of the scare stories I've grown up with.
1970s. Oil will run out by 2000 - it didn't and we're awash with the stuff 1970s - an Ice age is on its way early in the C21- I'm still mowing my lawn 1980s - we'll all die in a nuclear war - well Jezzas still saying it 1980s - we'll all die of AIDS - doesn't look that way 1990s - Global warming France will turn to desert - hugely disappointed by that one 1990s - the millenium bug will stop civilisation - nope TV still worked ar 00.01 on 1 Jan 2000 2000 - Saddam has WMDs - best let that one go 2000s - Foot and Mouth - probably one of our mors shameful episodes 2010s - we'll all die of Bird Flu - mostly chickens did, people not so much
The problem with establishment scare mongering for us oldies is we've seen it all before. And the more shrilly you do it the more convinced we become you're just trying it on.
failing to notice that the trump is not particularly extreme compared to cruz or rubio
That's a very good point, Trump is the clear moderate choice in the race. Kasich sounds reasonable until you get to his foreign policy which sounds like an attempt to start World War III more than anything else.
IIRC they all want war with Russia, except Trump? ( though he might fancy a barney with China)
David Cameron is not a fascist. Corbynistas are not being shot and killed or locked away in prison. You just can't win an election. Big difference.
But they genuinely believe this nonsense. And the petty bitching and in-fighting and, more seriously, bullying is far worse now than it ever was under the new Labour years. And yet somehow that is now acceptable because it's apparently left-wing bullying and harassment. Everyone else in the country sees no difference and it's time Labour came round to their way of thinking.
Mr. Brooke, a good list. Worth noting similar doom merchants have existed through all history (the sky will fall down, God will destroy the world any day now, Rome will fall in its thousandth year, etc).
'This referendum is going to see the Tories and Lab singing from the same hymn sheet.'
That isn't even true. About 140 Tory MPs are going to be supporting LEAVE plus two former Tory Chancellors and a recent former Tory leader. And even several of the MEPs.
What we will be seeing is the Tory leadership lining up with the mass of the Labour Party.
Add in the top people who worked for CCHQ at the last election are now working for Remain who are united, whilst Leave are still farting around trying to get lead campaign status.
Mr Eagles I'm 55 this year. Here's a selection of the scare stories I've grown up with.
1970s. Oil will run out by 2000 - it didn't and we're awash with the stuff 1970s - an Ice age is on its way early in the C21- I'm still mowing my lawn 1980s - we'll all die in a nuclear war - well Jezzas still saying it 1980s - we'll all die of AIDS - doesn't look that way 1990s - Global warming France will turn to desert - hugely disappointed by that one 1990s - the millenium bug will stop civilisation - nope TV still worked ar 00.01 on 1 Jan 2000 2000 - Saddam has WMDs - best let that one go 2000s - Foot and Mouth - probably one of our mors shameful episodes 2010s - we'll all die of Bird Flu - mostly chickens did, people not so much
The problem with establishment scare mongering for us oldies is we've seen it all before. And the more shrilly you do it the more convinced we become you're just trying it on.
BSE was due to be killing hundreds if thousands by now too.
Add in the top people who worked for CCHQ at the last election are now working for Remain who are united, whilst Leave are still farting around trying to get lead campaign status.
Mr Eagles I'm 55 this year. Here's a selection of the scare stories I've grown up with.
1970s. Oil will run out by 2000 - it didn't and we're awash with the stuff 1970s - an Ice age is on its way early in the C21- I'm still mowing my lawn 1980s - we'll all die in a nuclear war - well Jezzas still saying it 1980s - we'll all die of AIDS - doesn't look that way 1990s - Global warming France will turn to desert - hugely disappointed by that one 1990s - the millenium bug will stop civilisation - nope TV still worked ar 00.01 on 1 Jan 2000 2000 - Saddam has WMDs - best let that one go 2000s - Foot and Mouth - probably one of our mors shameful episodes 2010s - we'll all die of Bird Flu - mostly chickens did, people not so much
The problem with establishment scare mongering for us oldies is we've seen it all before. And the more shrilly you do it the more convinced we become you're just trying it on.
Yes but this time a wolf really is about to attack your flock(*)
Mr. Brooke, a good list. Worth noting similar doom merchants have existed through all history (the sky will fall down, God will destroy the world any day now, Rome will fall in its thousandth year, etc).
Add in the top people who worked for CCHQ at the last election are now working for Remain who are united, whilst Leave are still farting around trying to get lead campaign status.
Is this a beauty contest with a rigged election? Yes. If that is also how you assess this. Shame.
Growth of 2 to 2.5% growth from a very severe recession is far from impressive particularly when compared with earlier recoveries despite exchange rate flexibility and ultra loose monetary policy. He has consistently failed in terms of the targets he has set himself and the Balance of Payments is in a hell of a mess. You may disagree but I do sense that the narrative is changing.
Which other finance minister or country around the world would you cite as doing better?
The problem with establishment scare mongering for us oldies is we've seen it all before. And the more shrilly you do it the more convinced we become you're just trying it on.
Project Truth: leaving or remaining will be the equivalent of about one good or bad year of economic growth over a period of about 5-10 years. You are not going to frighten many people with stuff like that. So both sides are spouting crap instead.
Economically we will face much bigger issues in the years ahead than whether or not we remain in the EU.
Mr. Dugarbandier, that has about three different answers.
In terms of Western Empire [previously Republic/Kingdom] about 1,200 years. In terms of Empire (including Eastern), about 2,200 years. In technical terms, it's still there (2,769 or so and counting).
Add in the top people who worked for CCHQ at the last election are now working for Remain who are united, whilst Leave are still farting around trying to get lead campaign status.
Mr Eagles I'm 55 this year. Here's a selection of the scare stories I've grown up with.
1970s. Oil will run out by 2000 - it didn't and we're awash with the stuff 1970s - an Ice age is on its way early in the C21- I'm still mowing my lawn 1980s - we'll all die in a nuclear war - well Jezzas still saying it 1980s - we'll all die of AIDS - doesn't look that way 1990s - Global warming France will turn to desert - hugely disappointed by that one 1990s - the millenium bug will stop civilisation - nope TV still worked ar 00.01 on 1 Jan 2000 2000 - Saddam has WMDs - best let that one go 2000s - Foot and Mouth - probably one of our mors shameful episodes 2010s - we'll all die of Bird Flu - mostly chickens did, people not so much
The problem with establishment scare mongering for us oldies is we've seen it all before. And the more shrilly you do it the more convinced we become you're just trying it on.
so whenever we identify a risk, take action and avert it, you believe there is a conspiracy.
for example, flu is very real. probably a number of your relatives dies of it in 1918, and we are not much further on in preventing similar
Add in the top people who worked for CCHQ at the last election are now working for Remain who are united, whilst Leave are still farting around trying to get lead campaign status.
Mr Eagles I'm 55 this year. Here's a selection of the scare stories I've grown up with.
1970s. Oil will run out by 2000 - it didn't and we're awash with the stuff 1970s - an Ice age is on its way early in the C21- I'm still mowing my lawn 1980s - we'll all die in a nuclear war - well Jezzas still saying it 1980s - we'll all die of AIDS - doesn't look that way 1990s - Global warming France will turn to desert - hugely disappointed by that one 1990s - the millenium bug will stop civilisation - nope TV still worked ar 00.01 on 1 Jan 2000 2000 - Saddam has WMDs - best let that one go 2000s - Foot and Mouth - probably one of our mors shameful episodes 2010s - we'll all die of Bird Flu - mostly chickens did, people not so much
The problem with establishment scare mongering for us oldies is we've seen it all before. And the more shrilly you do it the more convinced we become you're just trying it on.
But look at it in elections.
Project Fear won the Indyref,
Project fear of Ed in Nicola's pocket won GE 2015 (coupled with Ozzy's awesome stewardship of the economy)
Add in the top people who worked for CCHQ at the last election are now working for Remain who are united, whilst Leave are still farting around trying to get lead campaign status.
Is this a beauty contest with a rigged election? Yes. If that is also how you assess this. Shame.
What on earth are you talking about?
Rigged? It's a fair referendum.
Remain has got on board the brightest and best campaigners, Leave are still arguing among themselves.
I'm going out on a limb, and say that gives Remain an advantage.
Mr Royale and I explained our frustrations/examples with Vote Leave/Leave.EU etc and compared it to the professionalism of BSE to date.
Mr. Dugarbandier, that has about three different answers.
In terms of Western Empire [previously Republic/Kingdom] about 1,200 years. In terms of Empire (including Eastern), about 2,200 years. In technical terms, it's still there (2,769 or so and counting).
I wonder if the 1000 year claim came with confidence intervals and p-values
After plastic bag tax, ministers now consider taxing coffee cups to stop waste mountain
The UK’s coffee guzzlers get through around seven million paper coffee cups every day, amounting to around 2.5billion a year. Fewer than one in 400 are recycled because of the difficulty of ripping out plastic used to laminate the paper.
The problem with establishment scare mongering for us oldies is we've seen it all before. And the more shrilly you do it the more convinced we become you're just trying it on.
Project Truth: leaving or remaining will be the equivalent of about one good or bad year of economic growth over a period of about 5-10 years. You are not going to frighten many people with stuff like that. So both sides are spouting crap instead.
Economically we will face much bigger issues in the years ahead than whether or not we remain in the EU.
Add in the top people who worked for CCHQ at the last election are now working for Remain who are united, whilst Leave are still farting around trying to get lead campaign status.
Mr Eagles I'm 55 this year. Here's a selection of the scare stories I've grown up with.
1970s. Oil will run out by 2000 - it didn't and we're awash with the stuff 1970s - an Ice age is on its way early in the C21- I'm still mowing my lawn 1980s - we'll all die in a nuclear war - well Jezzas still saying it 1980s - we'll all die of AIDS - doesn't look that way 1990s - Global warming France will turn to desert - hugely disappointed by that one 1990s - the millenium bug will stop civilisation - nope TV still worked ar 00.01 on 1 Jan 2000 2000 - Saddam has WMDs - best let that one go 2000s - Foot and Mouth - probably one of our mors shameful episodes 2010s - we'll all die of Bird Flu - mostly chickens did, people not so much
The problem with establishment scare mongering for us oldies is we've seen it all before. And the more shrilly you do it the more convinced we become you're just trying it on.
But look at it in elections.
Project Fear won the Indyref,
Project fear of Ed in Nicola's pocket won GE 2015 (coupled with Ozzy's awesome stewardship of the economy)
Fear has to be credible though to work. The Ed in the pocket meme worked as he was seen as weak and it was quite credible that the Scots would demand more goodies to be paid for by the English. On the other hand, in 1997 the Tories tried their "demon eyes" campaign against Blair and it was a miserable failure. Other examples of failure include "Save the Pound" from the Cons and "Save the NHS" from Lab
The problem with establishment scare mongering for us oldies is we've seen it all before. And the more shrilly you do it the more convinced we become you're just trying it on.
Project Truth: leaving or remaining will be the equivalent of about one good or bad year of economic growth over a period of about 5-10 years. You are not going to frighten many people with stuff like that. So both sides are spouting crap instead.
Economically we will face much bigger issues in the years ahead than whether or not we remain in the EU.
Well said. The language used so far must be putting people off, rather than encouraging votes one way or the other.
Add in the top people who worked for CCHQ at the last election are now working for Remain who are united, whilst Leave are still farting around trying to get lead campaign status.
Mr Eagles I'm 55 this year. Here's a selection of the scare stories I've grown up with.
1970s. Oil will run out by 2000 - it didn't and we're awash with the stuff 1970s - an Ice age is on its way early in the C21- I'm still mowing my lawn 1980s - we'll all die in a nuclear war - well Jezzas still saying it 1980s - we'll all die of AIDS - doesn't look that way 1990s - Global warming France will turn to desert - hugely disappointed by that one 1990s - the millenium bug will stop civilisation - nope TV still worked ar 00.01 on 1 Jan 2000 2000 - Saddam has WMDs - best let that one go 2000s - Foot and Mouth - probably one of our mors shameful episodes 2010s - we'll all die of Bird Flu - mostly chickens did, people not so much
The problem with establishment scare mongering for us oldies is we've seen it all before. And the more shrilly you do it the more convinced we become you're just trying it on.
But look at it in elections.
Project Fear won the Indyref,
Project fear of Ed in Nicola's pocket won GE 2015 (coupled with Ozzy's awesome stewardship of the economy)
Fear has to be credible though to work. The Ed in the pocket meme worked as he was seen as weak and it was quite credible that the Scots would demand more goodies to be paid for by the English. On the other hand, in 1997 the Tories tried their "demon eyes" campaign against Blair and it was a miserable failure. Other examples of failure include "Save the Pound" from the Cons and "Save the NHS" from Lab
Indeed but I would also argue that fear needs a credible messenger. Remain has that in Cameron.
Add in the top people who worked for CCHQ at the last election are now working for Remain who are united, whilst Leave are still farting around trying to get lead campaign status.
Mr Eagles I'm 55 this year. Here's a selection of the scare stories I've grown up with.
1970s. Oil will run out by 2000 - it didn't and we're awash with the stuff 1970s - an Ice age is on its way early in the C21- I'm still mowing my lawn 1980s - we'll all die in a nuclear war - well Jezzas still saying it 1980s - we'll all die of AIDS - doesn't look that way 1990s - Global warming France will turn to desert - hugely disappointed by that one 1990s - the millenium bug will stop civilisation - nope TV still worked ar 00.01 on 1 Jan 2000 2000 - Saddam has WMDs - best let that one go 2000s - Foot and Mouth - probably one of our mors shameful episodes 2010s - we'll all die of Bird Flu - mostly chickens did, people not so much
The problem with establishment scare mongering for us oldies is we've seen it all before. And the more shrilly you do it the more convinced we become you're just trying it on.
BSE was due to be killing hundreds if thousands by now too.
yes BSE was poorly presented in terms of risk. but don't you think nuclear war (or some kind of major nuclear terrorist activity) is now more likely than it was in the 80s when we used to worry about it?
@TSE Put it this way, were Cameron to recommend Leave, Leave would win a landslide. He's a nexus for floating voters. ------- Well, well, TSE sweating that Leave may win in June after all; and in actuality Cameron is fast losing credibility with the fear monger he has become.
Trump a 'top 10 global risk'... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35828747 'The EIU ranking uses a scale of one to 25, with Mr Trump garnering a rating of 12, the same level of risk as "the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilising the global economy".'
Add in the top people who worked for CCHQ at the last election are now working for Remain who are united, whilst Leave are still farting around trying to get lead campaign status.
Mr Eagles I'm 55 this year. Here's a selection of the scare stories I've grown up with.
1970s. Oil will run out by 2000 - it didn't and we're awash with the stuff 1970s - an Ice age is on its way early in the C21- I'm still mowing my lawn 1980s - we'll all die in a nuclear war - well Jezzas still saying it 1980s - we'll all die of AIDS - doesn't look that way 1990s - Global warming France will turn to desert - hugely disappointed by that one 1990s - the millenium bug will stop civilisation - nope TV still worked ar 00.01 on 1 Jan 2000 2000 - Saddam has WMDs - best let that one go 2000s - Foot and Mouth - probably one of our mors shameful episodes 2010s - we'll all die of Bird Flu - mostly chickens did, people not so much
The problem with establishment scare mongering for us oldies is we've seen it all before. And the more shrilly you do it the more convinced we become you're just trying it on.
BSE was due to be killing hundreds if thousands by now too.
yes BSE was poorly presented in terms of risk. but don't you think nuclear war (or some kind of major nuclear terrorist activity) is now more likely than it was in the 80s when we used to worry about it?
We are talking about Britain Stronger in Europe, right?
Add in the top people who worked for CCHQ at the last election are now working for Remain who are united, whilst Leave are still farting around trying to get lead campaign status.
Mr Eagles I'm 55 this year. Here's a selection of the scare stories I've grown up with.
1970s. Oil will run out by 2000 - it didn't and we're awash with the stuff 1970s - an Ice age is on its way early in the C21- I'm still mowing my lawn 1980s - we'll all die in a nuclear war - well Jezzas still saying it 1980s - we'll all die of AIDS - doesn't look that way 1990s - Global warming France will turn to desert - hugely disappointed by that one 1990s - the millenium bug will stop civilisation - nope TV still worked ar 00.01 on 1 Jan 2000 2000 - Saddam has WMDs - best let that one go 2000s - Foot and Mouth - probably one of our mors shameful episodes 2010s - we'll all die of Bird Flu - mostly chickens did, people not so much
The problem with establishment scare mongering for us oldies is we've seen it all before. And the more shrilly you do it the more convinced we become you're just trying it on.
BSE was due to be killing hundreds if thousands by now too.
yes BSE was poorly presented in terms of risk. but don't you think nuclear war (or some kind of major nuclear terrorist activity) is now more likely than it was in the 80s when we used to worry about it?
We are talking about Britain Stronger in Europe, right?
The big advantage that the pro-Union side had in Scotland was that a large minority of Scots were actually strongly committed to the UK, at an emotional level. Fear of the unknown surely worked with the relatively small number of floating voters, but most pro-Union voters weren't floating voters.
Trump a 'top 10 global risk'... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35828747 'The EIU ranking uses a scale of one to 25, with Mr Trump garnering a rating of 12, the same level of risk as "the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilising the global economy".'
well, he does seem to be talking of a major rethink to free trade, which might cause some ructions (presumably he wouldn't actually do that stuff in office ...?
Trump a 'top 10 global risk'... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35828747 'The EIU ranking uses a scale of one to 25, with Mr Trump garnering a rating of 12, the same level of risk as "the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilising the global economy".'
The EIU has been a miserable failure at forecasting forward movements in economics for years. They are really a load of bollocks.
The big advantage that the pro-Union side had in Scotland was that a large minority of Scots were actually strongly committed to the UK, at an emotional level. Fear of the unknown surely worked with the relatively small number of floating voters, but most pro-Union voters weren't floating voters.
I think another difference is that Scotland leaving the UK would have been a much bigger change than the UK leaving the EU (for example the currency question isn't an issue with this referendum)
The big advantage that the pro-Union side had in Scotland was that a large minority of Scots were actually strongly committed to the UK, at an emotional level. Fear of the unknown surely worked with the relatively small number of floating voters, but most pro-Union voters weren't floating voters.
Indeed, the best analogy I've heard about the UK and the EU was that was of married couple that want a divorce, but have decided to stick it out for the benefit of the kids/economy.
@TSE Put it this way, were Cameron to recommend Leave, Leave would win a landslide. He's a nexus for floating voters. ------- Well, well, TSE sweating that Leave may win in June after all; and in actuality Cameron is fast losing credibility with the fear monger he has become.
The result is irrelevant, I'm not looking forward to the EU ref, as I will be editing PB from the 1st of June through to the 20th of June.
So for most of the last stage of the referendum campaign (and probable run up to a Tooting by election), as you all know, nothing major happens when Mike goes on holiday.
Trump a 'top 10 global risk'... http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35828747 'The EIU ranking uses a scale of one to 25, with Mr Trump garnering a rating of 12, the same level of risk as "the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilising the global economy".'
The EIU has been a miserable failure at forecasting forward movements in economics for years. They are really a load of bollocks.
Did they predict 102 UKIP MPs at the last General Election?
Add in the top people who worked for CCHQ at the last election are now working for Remain who are united, whilst Leave are still farting around trying to get lead campaign status.
Mr Eagles I'm 55 this year. Here's a selection of the scare stories I've grown up with.
1970s. Oil will run out by 2000 - it didn't and we're awash with the stuff 1970s - an Ice age is on its way early in the C21- I'm still mowing my lawn 1980s - we'll all die in a nuclear war - well Jezzas still saying it 1980s - we'll all die of AIDS - doesn't look that way 1990s - Global warming France will turn to desert - hugely disappointed by that one 1990s - the millenium bug will stop civilisation - nope TV still worked ar 00.01 on 1 Jan 2000 2000 - Saddam has WMDs - best let that one go 2000s - Foot and Mouth - probably one of our mors shameful episodes 2010s - we'll all die of Bird Flu - mostly chickens did, people not so much
The problem with establishment scare mongering for us oldies is we've seen it all before. And the more shrilly you do it the more convinced we become you're just trying it on.
But look at it in elections.
Project Fear won the Indyref,
Project fear of Ed in Nicola's pocket won GE 2015 (coupled with Ozzy's awesome stewardship of the economy)
Fear has to be credible though to work. The Ed in the pocket meme worked as he was seen as weak and it was quite credible that the Scots would demand more goodies to be paid for by the English. On the other hand, in 1997 the Tories tried their "demon eyes" campaign against Blair and it was a miserable failure. Other examples of failure include "Save the Pound" from the Cons and "Save the NHS" from Lab
Indeed but I would also argue that fear needs a credible messenger. Remain has that in Cameron.
Coupled with Remain being the status quo, helps.
A credible messenger is a fair point. The question with Cameron is whether the 64% of the electorate who didn't vote for him last year find him credible on this (bearing in mind that a fair chunk of the 36% who did vote Con are plumping for leave)
[Sunil and TSE confront each other, after the former has learnt that the latter has turned to the Daft Side]
Sunil: You have allowed this Europhile Chancellor to twist your mind, until now, until now you've become the very thing you swore to destroy.
TSE: Don't lecture me, Sunil! I see through the lies of the LEAVE campaign. I do not fear the EUropean Union as you do. I have brought peace, freedom, justice, and security to my new Empire!
Sunil: Your new Empire?
TSE: Don't make me MODERATE you.
Sunil: TSE, my allegiance is to the Republic Monarchy, to democracy!
TSE: If you're not with me, then you're my enemy.
Sunil:[realizing that TSE is consumed by evil and there's no reasoning with him anymore] Only a Europhile deals in absolutes. [draws his lightsaber] I will do what I must!
TSE: You will try! [draws his own lightsaber and confronts Sunil!]
[later during a pause in the battle]
Sunil: I have failed you, TSE. I have failed you.
TSE: I should have known the LEAVERS were plotting to take over. Chancellor Osborne has showed me the true ways of the Force.
Sunil: TSE, Chancellor Osborne is evil! The EU are evil. The Daft Side of the Force is an evil presence.
TSE: From my point of view, it is the LEAVERS who are evil.
Sunil: Well, then you really are lost!
TSE: [raises his lightsaber] This is the end for you... my former master.
[the battle resumes, but even later on, Sunil manages to reach a vantage point overlooking TSE]
Sunil: It's over TSE, I have the high ground!
TSE: You MISUNDERESTIMATE my power!
Sunil: Don't try it!
[TSE leaps at Sunil, but the latter anticipates his move and promptly lightsabers TSE's limbs off, leaving him writhing in pain on the ground!]
Sunil: You were the chosen one! It was said that you would destroy the EU, not join them! You were to bring balance to PoliticalBetting.com, not leave it in Daftness!
TSE:[shouts] I HATE you!
Sunil: You were my brother, TSE. I loved you.
[Sunil, unable to bring himself to finish off poor TSE, walks away from the scene, disconsolate...
The big advantage that the pro-Union side had in Scotland was that a large minority of Scots were actually strongly committed to the UK, at an emotional level. Fear of the unknown surely worked with the relatively small number of floating voters, but most pro-Union voters weren't floating voters.
Indeed, the best analogy I've heard about the UK and the EU was that was of married couple that want a divorce, but have decided to stick it out for the benefit of the kids/economy.
Indeed whereas in the UK as a whole there is genuine love involved, especially amongst the generation that grew up in WWII. Although English not Scottish my grandfather was a child during WWII and served in the RAF in Malaysia after it. While I hoped the Scots went independent, he found the whole referendum quite upsetting.
a) 63% of the voting population ignored Dave's 'credibility' and voted for someone else; b) Half of the 37% that did vote for him intend to vote against him this time.
These numbers imply that Dave does not have the clout that is imagined.
TrustDaveTories are about 18%-19% of last year's electorate.
@BethRigby: And so it begins: #Guardian to cut 250 jobs from UK HQ in bid to stem operating losses. 100 journalists' jobs to go
So they're cutting jobs of 150 people that aren't journalists? What on earth do all those people do, and how many non-journalists do they still have on staff?
Dr. Prasannan, that was probably the most stupid part in all seven films (to date). Massive duel (overblown, to be honest), and it ends because one is a few feet higher than the other.
Disregarding that such a thing didn't stop Obi-Wan Kenobi against Darth Maul.
@BethRigby: And so it begins: #Guardian to cut 250 jobs from UK HQ in bid to stem operating losses. 100 journalists' jobs to go
So they're cutting jobs of 150 people that aren't journalists? What on earth do all those people do, and how many non-journalists do they still have on staff?
@BethRigby: And so it begins: #Guardian to cut 250 jobs from UK HQ in bid to stem operating losses. 100 journalists' jobs to go
So they're cutting jobs of 150 people that aren't journalists? What on earth do all those people do, and how many non-journalists do they still have on staff?
Most people in the news media nowadays seem to work on advertising etc rather than journalism. Especially for the local media.
a) 63% of the voting population ignored Dave's 'credibility' and voted for someone else; b) Half of the 37% that did vote for him intend to vote against him this time.
These numbers imply that Dave does not have the clout that is imagined.
TrustDaveTories are about 18%-19% of last year's electorate.
18-19% is a massive portion of the electorate if the referendum is close. Lets say it ends 42-58 (quite plausible) then it will the TrustDaveTories that win it for Remain.
Had Dave recommended Leave then I'd think 80% at least of Tories would have backed Leave. That 30% differences is an extra 11% for Leave and would have meant that instead of 42 Leave/58 Remain it would instead be 53 Leave/47 Remain and Leave would win. That's assuming that none of the other 63% are influenced.
[Sunil and TSE confront each other, after the former has learnt that the latter has turned to the Daft Side]
Sunil: You have allowed this Europhile Chancellor to twist your mind, until now, until now you've become the very thing you swore to destroy.
TSE: Don't lecture me, Sunil! I see through the lies of the LEAVE campaign. I do not fear the EUropean Union as you do. I have brought peace, freedom, justice, and security to my new Empire!
Sunil: Your new Empire?
TSE: Don't make me MODERATE you.
Sunil: TSE, my allegiance is to the Republic Monarchy, to democracy!
TSE: If you're not with me, then you're my enemy.
Sunil:[realizing that TSE is consumed by evil and there's no reasoning with him anymore] Only a Europhile deals in absolutes. [draws his lightsaber] I will do what I must!
TSE: You will try! [draws his own lightsaber and confronts Sunil!]
[later during a pause in the battle]
Sunil: I have failed you, TSE. I have failed you.
TSE: I should have known the LEAVERS were plotting to take over. Chancellor Osborne has showed me the true ways of the Force.
Sunil: TSE, Chancellor Osborne is evil! The EU are evil. The Daft Side of the Force is an evil presence.
TSE: From my point of view, it is the LEAVERS who are evil.
Sunil: Well, then you really are lost!
TSE: [raises his lightsaber] This is the end for you... my former master.
[the battle resumes, but even later on, Sunil manages to reach a vantage point overlooking TSE]
Sunil: It's over TSE, I have the high ground!
TSE: You MISUNDERESTIMATE my power!
Sunil: Don't try it!
[TSE leaps at Sunil, but the latter anticipates his move and promptly lightsabers TSE's limbs off, leaving him writhing in pain on the ground!]
Sunil: You were the chosen one! It was said that you would destroy the EU, not join them! You were to bring balance to PoliticalBetting.com, not leave it in Daftness!
TSE:[shouts] I HATE you!
Sunil: You were my brother, TSE. I loved you.
[Sunil, unable to bring himself to finish off poor TSE, walks away from the scene, disconsolate...
@BethRigby: And so it begins: #Guardian to cut 250 jobs from UK HQ in bid to stem operating losses. 100 journalists' jobs to go
So they're cutting jobs of 150 people that aren't journalists? What on earth do all those people do, and how many non-journalists do they still have on staff?
We're a publishing company and most of our employees are not journalists. They do sales, marketing, IT, general admin, finance and accounts, and so on.
Comments
In 1979 when Geoffrey Howe became Chancellor, he was fortunate the Callaghan and Healey via the IMF had turned off the taps and cut spending. Whereas Brown and Darling had turned on the taps, to cause Ozzy maximum damage
Brexit to put AV threads in jeopardy etc.
Well that should be a laugh given it has plumbed the depths of absurdity already. Will we be told Brexit will see a return of the Black Death next?
There seems to be a ball of fire that has burnt away the clouds...
It's the economy, stupid, plus it is Cameron delivering that message, people will believe him as he has the credibility on this, from last year's election.
Leave just doesn't have anyone like that, Boris is popular, but has no economic credibility.
Put it this way, were Cameron to recommend Leave, Leave would win a landslide. He's a nexus for floating voters.
http://order-order.com/2016/03/16/budget-flash-back/
Maybe a nuclear accident, the release of a plague from an NHS hospital, or the self-immolation of Ken Clarke in Parliament Square?
He needs to get the young and gullible out to make his vote cast iron.
His credibility is surely no greater than Blair's in 1999-2003 is it? All the same scare stories were used then re. euro membership. Why didn't it work?
This referendum is going to see the Tories and Lab singing from the same hymn sheet.
Glad it's on 5Live rather than 5Live Sports Extra, or whatever it's called. Need to check my ancient walkman still works, though.
Oh come off it. The Tories had very low credibility at the time. So much so that Business for Sterling was keen to keep them away from its campaign.
1970s. Oil will run out by 2000 - it didn't and we're awash with the stuff
1970s - an Ice age is on its way early in the C21- I'm still mowing my lawn
1980s - we'll all die in a nuclear war - well Jezzas still saying it
1980s - we'll all die of AIDS - doesn't look that way
1990s - Global warming France will turn to desert - hugely disappointed by that one
1990s - the millenium bug will stop civilisation - nope TV still worked ar 00.01 on 1 Jan 2000
2000 - Saddam has WMDs - best let that one go
2000s - Foot and Mouth - probably one of our mors shameful episodes
2010s - we'll all die of Bird Flu - mostly chickens did, people not so much
The problem with establishment scare mongering for us oldies is we've seen it all before. And the more shrilly you do it the more convinced we become you're just trying it on.
Labour has become filled with hatred, writes @jonwillchambers, and that's why I'm leaving https://t.co/TifzyEztZo
That isn't even true. About 140 Tory MPs are going to be supporting LEAVE plus two former Tory Chancellors and a recent former Tory leader. And even several of the MEPs.
What we will be seeing is the Tory leadership lining up with the mass of the Labour Party.
In any case, @justin124 seems to think that we are in a mess now.
And still your claim on growth is just plain wrong.
Economically we will face much bigger issues in the years ahead than whether or not we remain in the EU.
In terms of Western Empire [previously Republic/Kingdom] about 1,200 years. In terms of Empire (including Eastern), about 2,200 years. In technical terms, it's still there (2,769 or so and counting).
for example, flu is very real. probably a number of your relatives dies of it in 1918, and we are not much further on in preventing similar
Project Fear won the Indyref,
Project fear of Ed in Nicola's pocket won GE 2015 (coupled with Ozzy's awesome stewardship of the economy)
Rigged? It's a fair referendum.
Remain has got on board the brightest and best campaigners, Leave are still arguing among themselves.
I'm going out on a limb, and say that gives Remain an advantage.
Mr Royale and I explained our frustrations/examples with Vote Leave/Leave.EU etc and compared it to the professionalism of BSE to date.
It is worth noting that Spain, despite being very close to Africa, has received almost no migrants.
Coupled with Remain being the status quo, helps.
The Indie Survey 2016 results are out today! View data here https://t.co/kscXlEJoN3 #indiesummit https://t.co/9YL98WB1k2
Put it this way, were Cameron to recommend Leave, Leave would win a landslide. He's a nexus for floating voters.
-------
Well, well, TSE sweating that Leave may win in June after all; and in actuality Cameron is fast losing credibility with the fear monger he has become.
They keep missing "detected" from these statements.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35828747
'The EIU ranking uses a scale of one to 25, with Mr Trump garnering a rating of 12, the same level of risk as "the rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilising the global economy".'
So for most of the last stage of the referendum campaign (and probable run up to a Tooting by election), as you all know, nothing major happens when Mike goes on holiday.
Sunil: You have allowed this Europhile Chancellor to twist your mind, until now, until now you've become the very thing you swore to destroy.
TSE: Don't lecture me, Sunil! I see through the lies of the LEAVE campaign. I do not fear the EUropean Union as you do. I have brought peace, freedom, justice, and security to my new Empire!
Sunil: Your new Empire?
TSE: Don't make me MODERATE you.
Sunil: TSE, my allegiance is to the
RepublicMonarchy, to democracy!TSE: If you're not with me, then you're my enemy.
Sunil: [realizing that TSE is consumed by evil and there's no reasoning with him anymore] Only a Europhile deals in absolutes.
[draws his lightsaber] I will do what I must!
TSE: You will try!
[draws his own lightsaber and confronts Sunil!]
[later during a pause in the battle]
Sunil: I have failed you, TSE. I have failed you.
TSE: I should have known the LEAVERS were plotting to take over. Chancellor Osborne has showed me the true ways of the Force.
Sunil: TSE, Chancellor Osborne is evil! The EU are evil. The Daft Side of the Force is an evil presence.
TSE: From my point of view, it is the LEAVERS who are evil.
Sunil: Well, then you really are lost!
TSE: [raises his lightsaber] This is the end for you... my former master.
[the battle resumes, but even later on, Sunil manages to reach a vantage point overlooking TSE]
Sunil: It's over TSE, I have the high ground!
TSE: You MISUNDERESTIMATE my power!
Sunil: Don't try it!
[TSE leaps at Sunil, but the latter anticipates his move and promptly lightsabers TSE's limbs off, leaving him writhing in pain on the ground!]
Sunil: You were the chosen one! It was said that you would destroy the EU, not join them! You were to bring balance to PoliticalBetting.com, not leave it in Daftness!
TSE: [shouts] I HATE you!
Sunil: You were my brother, TSE. I loved you.
[Sunil, unable to bring himself to finish off poor TSE, walks away from the scene, disconsolate...
To Be Continued....]
b) Half of the 37% that did vote for him intend to vote against him this time.
These numbers imply that Dave does not have the clout that is imagined.
TrustDaveTories are about 18%-19% of last year's electorate.
Disregarding that such a thing didn't stop Obi-Wan Kenobi against Darth Maul.
74-year-old Bernie Sanders's remarkable dominance among young voters, in 1 chart https://t.co/RB38eb2C84 https://t.co/1rMqyDSh63
Had Dave recommended Leave then I'd think 80% at least of Tories would have backed Leave. That 30% differences is an extra 11% for Leave and would have meant that instead of 42 Leave/58 Remain it would instead be 53 Leave/47 Remain and Leave would win. That's assuming that none of the other 63% are influenced.