politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A budget for the referendum
Comments
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I think you're forgetting the BIG announcement that there's going to be regional mayors for 'West of England', 'Greater Lincolnshire' and 'The Eastern Powerhouse'.Alanbrooke said:While George announces his sugar tax gimmick the Germans announce an additional €264 billion on infrastructure improvements.
Puts it all in perpective.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/infrastrukturpaket-der-bundesregierung-bis-2030-14128647.html
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Trump, the man who spends him time insulting every other candidate and believes in imaginary New Jersey Muslims cheering 9/11, is presidential??Gaius said:
No, I don't think that will happen because you don't understand the psychology.Sandpit said:
It's going to be a nasty, nasty campaign on both sides. There will be plenty more ads like that one.Gaius said:This is pretty savage.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BDBS8bYGhWr/
Trump is going to destroy Clinton.
Trump will go very hard on Hillary and portray her as utterly corrupt. Hillary will play on the fears of Trump the man as being unfit and dangerous.
I'd have thought that by November most Americans would wish they had a choice of someone else.
From a purely betting perspective there has to be some value in Trump to win - unless he gets stitched up at the Convention.
The numerous scandals around the Clintons have been around for years with no result.
As such Trump will merely allude to Clinton as being ill, and shrill anti-male. Trump appears presidental.
Clinton can do one of two things, go easy on Trump in which case he wins by default, or
go hard on Trump in which case he wins as she appears (mentally) ill, shrill and anti-male.
As Clinton has never shown any ability at politics guess which one she will choose.
Trump is going to win by a landslide.0 -
I must say, I find her rather smoking.Casino_Royale said:
Its just embarrassing isn't it? They should rely more on Laura Kuenssberg who has been an excellent addition to the BBC team.DavidL said:
The Chancellor is extremely unlikely to survive a second recession in his job, considering there hasn't even been a first recession in his job yet.Philip_Thompson said:Ignorant BBC/Guardian (from the BBC Budget 2016 Live webpage)
In The Guardian, Gaby Hinsliff asks readers to forget the announcements on sugary drinks, or small business, and says the bit of the budget that mattered most was "the doom-laden stuff at the beginning about how the world economy may be about to go horribly wrong". She says the Chancellor is "unlikely to survive" a second recession in his job and he "sounded like a man outlining his legacy".
Yep.0 -
Well, my day has been made.
I tweeted my firm's budget briefing (as it affects pensions) under the tagline: "Did you see LISA? Yes I saw LISA".
I have just received a notification that I've been followed by Dean Friedman.0 -
ICM 43/41 Remain0
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I added up the delegate numbers for the GOP race, by April 19th Trump will be 57 under target, assuming he gets none in Utah, N.Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming, Samoa and if he loses Wisconsin.
If he overperforms with delegates in N.Y., Pennsylvania and California the same way he did in Illinois, he should be 17 delegates above 1237.
I think chances favour Trump having a majority now, but it will be debilitating for everyone to wait until California in June.0 -
If the disability payments in total are at the highest ever levels but PIP payments in specific are being cut then that means something else must be getting increased by a higher amount than the cut.Danny565 said:
Again, this is another example of the media being mindless enough to just swallow his spin at face value. Just like a year ago when (for a couple of days) he got the media to focus on an increase in the minimum wage, and ignore the fact that tax credits would be cut by much more than the increased wage.Sandpit said:
The Chancellor said that there was an extra billion for the disabled, and that spending on the disabled had never been higher. I'm genuinely interested as to what these cuts are?Danny565 said:The BBC really do disgrace themselves on Budget days. They literally just swallow the government spin: there is barely a mention of the £4.2 BILLION in disability benefits cuts in their main story, just as last June they didn't mention the tax credit cuts and instead focussed on the minimum wage increase.
Personal Independence Payments are being cut by £4.2bn in total.
Sounds like you are the one spinning based on one part of the package rather than looking at the big picture.0 -
TBF the aids cuts only apply to Toilet aids and dressing/undressing aids. So for jobs where you can attend naked smeared in shit people should be fine. But hey cutting Corporation tax is much more importantDanny565 said:
And the irony (since the Tories are supposedly the party against unemployment) is that this will make it harder for certain people to work. One of the main points of PIP is to help people pay for things which their conditions might require for them to get anywhere (for example, adaptations to cars, etc.)Freggles said:
Personal Independence Payments, they have revised the guidelines effectively limiting the expenditure on equipment and aids, so I understand.Sandpit said:
The Chancellor said that there was an extra billion for the disabled, and that spending on the disabled had never been higher. I'm genuinely interested as to what these cuts are?Danny565 said:The BBC really do disgrace themselves on Budget days. They literally just swallow the government spin: there is barely a mention of the £4.2 BILLION in disability benefits cuts in their main story, just as last June they didn't mention the tax credit cuts and instead focussed on the minimum wage increase.
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Green on Trump Cruz Ryan and Romeny. Red on everyone else. Is there anyone else feasible as a brokered convention candidate?Speedy said:I added up the delegate numbers for the GOP race, by April 19th Trump will be 57 under target, assuming he gets none in Utah, N.Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming, Samoa and if he loses Wisconsin.
If he overperforms with delegates in N.Y., Pennsylvania and California the same way he did in Illinois, he should be 17 delegates above 1237.
I think chances favour Trump having a majority now, but it will be debilitating for everyone to wait until California in June.0 -
I still think Trump will lock this up and ith an outright majority incidentally, just looking for insurance.Alistair said:
Green on Trump Cruz Ryan and Romeny. Red on everyone else. Is there anyone else feasible as a brokered convention candidate?Speedy said:I added up the delegate numbers for the GOP race, by April 19th Trump will be 57 under target, assuming he gets none in Utah, N.Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming, Samoa and if he loses Wisconsin.
If he overperforms with delegates in N.Y., Pennsylvania and California the same way he did in Illinois, he should be 17 delegates above 1237.
I think chances favour Trump having a majority now, but it will be debilitating for everyone to wait until California in June.0 -
Online rather than Phone again?Sean_F said:ICM 43/41 Remain
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I don't think he has a deep interest in reform. He is focussed on the now and the immediate future. In fairness he was dealt the worst hand ever for an incoming Chancellor and it is understandable that he has found keeping the show on the road a full time job. He has taken significant steps in rebalancing the economy with government spending falling consistently as a share of gdp and downward pressure on the horrific deficit as a result. Doing that and keeping the economy growing has been no mean trick.Casino_Royale said:
He's frontloaded extra borrowing in the penultimate year prior to the election in 2018/19 (up from c.4 billion to c.20 billion) so he can go into the 2020 election declaring a surplus.DavidL said:
I agree. He has taken some remedial steps to address the drift but mostly he has let the damage lie.AlastairMeeks said:ut.
People accuse Osborne of being a very political Chancellor and in many ways he is but what I find surprising is that in both the last Parliament and the present one he is very relaxed about putting so much of the pain to the end of a Parliament and near the election. Most Chancellors try to get the unpleasant stuff out of the way early and cram some goodies towards the end but in the Coalition we even had the absurd position of him coming to the country with a tough budget that he then moderated quite considerably after he won. This is a second relatively pain free budget but the targets for later in the Parliament look heroic.
My view, for what it is worth, is that whilst he clearly has a weakness for the political gesture he also genuinely tries to do his best. The reason the tougher years of cuts were postponed the last time was that he thought the economy was not strong enough to bear it. I think we have seen the same pattern in both the last 2 budgets. I think he is genuinely worried about the storm clouds he has described and he is taking his foot off the break again in response.
So far, in macroeconomic terms at least, he has called this right.
I think he has a tendency now to air what he thinks might be the controversial proposals early, to test the water, following his controversial omnishambles budget in 2012. He did it with the big cuts for this parliament prior to GE2015, the tax credit cuts and the pensions reforms.
But he also can't resist the occasional gesture and rabbit.
Much better than Labour but, personally, I'm not a fan as he's a tax complicator (as Robert says) tactically Brownian and he's a weathercock - far too concerned about both politics and his image.
His reforming instincts only go as far as what he smells on the political winds.0 -
LOLRobD said:
What's the UK's infrastructure budget for the next 15 years. Has to be pretty big, what with HS2.Alanbrooke said:While George announces his sugar tax gimmick the Germans announce an additional €264 billion on infrastructure improvements.
Puts it all in perpective.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/infrastrukturpaket-der-bundesregierung-bis-2030-14128647.html0 -
Yes, ICM have emailed the data tables to a select few of us, for immediate releaseAlastairMeeks said:Is this new?
@NCPoliticsEU · 6m6 minutes ago
ICM (#EURef):
REMAIN 43 (+3)
LEAVE 41 (=)
Fieldwork was 11th of March through to the 13th of March0 -
I'm Green on everyone other than Rubio and Kasich. But I can't see how the candidate can be anyone other than Trump or Cruz now, and even Cruz only stands an outside chance.Alistair said:
Green on Trump Cruz Ryan and Romeny. Red on everyone else. Is there anyone else feasible as a brokered convention candidate?Speedy said:I added up the delegate numbers for the GOP race, by April 19th Trump will be 57 under target, assuming he gets none in Utah, N.Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming, Samoa and if he loses Wisconsin.
If he overperforms with delegates in N.Y., Pennsylvania and California the same way he did in Illinois, he should be 17 delegates above 1237.
I think chances favour Trump having a majority now, but it will be debilitating for everyone to wait until California in June.0 -
Try thisCasino_Royale said:
Ah, thank you. Do you have a linky?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
AndyJS of this parish had a load of them on his You Tube channel.Casino_Royale said:
Great stuff. I am enough of a nerd to really enjoy these programmes so will put this one on record.marke09 said:BBC PARLIAMENT
BBC PARLIAMENT
1966 General Election
To mark the 50th anniversary, BBC Parliament gives viewers a chance to experience the 1966 General Election through this archive broadcast of the BBC’s original live election results coverage from Thursday 31 March 1966.
Cliff Michelmore hosts the BBC’s 1966 General Election programme, with analysis of the results by election experts David Butler and Robert McKenzie, political commentary from the BBC’s parliamentary correspondent Ian Trethowan, and interviews by Robin Day.
The election battle is between Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s Labour Party, which was attempting to improve on the parliamentary majority of just one seat it held at the time the election was called, and the Conservatives under the eight-month-old leadership of Edward Heath, with hopes of overturning Labour’s narrow majority.
Live coverage of declarations and reaction to the results comes from across the country, including reports from Frank Bough in Wolverhampton, Magnus Magnusson in Glasgow, Raymond Baxter in Billericay, Michael Parkinson in Birmingham and Alan Wicker with the crowds watching the BBC’s coverage on a big screen in Trafalgar Square.
In addition, Michael Aspel presents regular news summaries, Robert Robinson provides a review of the newspapers, and among the studio guests giving their response to the election campaign and results are the editor of the Spectator magazine Nigel Lawson and the US political commentator Theodore H White.
Pictured: Harold Wilson
Monday 28 March
8.20-12 midnight
BBC PARLIAMENT
Thanks.
https://www.youtube.com/user/ajs41/videos0 -
Osborne's borrowing prediction:
2015/16 £72.2bn
2016/17 £55.5bn -£16.7bn
2017/18 £38.8bn -£16.7bn
2018/19 £21.4bn -£17.4bn
2019/20 £10.4bn surplus -£31.8bn
Does anyone really believe there's going to be such a huge improvement in the public finances during an election year ???
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Owen Smith, Labour’s shadow work and pensions secretary, said: “Before I came to the Chamber this afternoon, I asked disabled people what question they would like to put to the Secretary of State. One answer stood out. It was quite simply, ‘How does he sleep at night?’”0
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Do you have a source for this other than Osborne's word?Philip_Thompson said:
If the disability payments in total are at the highest ever levelsDanny565 said:
Again, this is another example of the media being mindless enough to just swallow his spin at face value. Just like a year ago when (for a couple of days) he got the media to focus on an increase in the minimum wage, and ignore the fact that tax credits would be cut by much more than the increased wage.Sandpit said:
The Chancellor said that there was an extra billion for the disabled, and that spending on the disabled had never been higher. I'm genuinely interested as to what these cuts are?Danny565 said:The BBC really do disgrace themselves on Budget days. They literally just swallow the government spin: there is barely a mention of the £4.2 BILLION in disability benefits cuts in their main story, just as last June they didn't mention the tax credit cuts and instead focussed on the minimum wage increase.
Personal Independence Payments are being cut by £4.2bn in total.0 -
Jeb!!!!!Alistair said:
Green on Trump Cruz Ryan and Romeny. Red on everyone else. Is there anyone else feasible as a brokered convention candidate?Speedy said:I added up the delegate numbers for the GOP race, by April 19th Trump will be 57 under target, assuming he gets none in Utah, N.Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming, Samoa and if he loses Wisconsin.
If he overperforms with delegates in N.Y., Pennsylvania and California the same way he did in Illinois, he should be 17 delegates above 1237.
I think chances favour Trump having a majority now, but it will be debilitating for everyone to wait until California in June.0 -
And the Outers will use the Tampon Tax to highlight how we cannot make our own laws, is there the remotest possibility of this budget being voted down?Danny565 said:Apparently some Tory MPs are angry about the big cuts to disability benefits.
Hopefully the 2015 intake (Heidi Allen et al) will put the kibosh on it again.0 -
Shame on you for needing more than his word!Danny565 said:
Do you have a source for this other than Osborne's word?Philip_Thompson said:
If the disability payments in total are at the highest ever levelsDanny565 said:
Again, this is another example of the media being mindless enough to just swallow his spin at face value. Just like a year ago when (for a couple of days) he got the media to focus on an increase in the minimum wage, and ignore the fact that tax credits would be cut by much more than the increased wage.Sandpit said:
The Chancellor said that there was an extra billion for the disabled, and that spending on the disabled had never been higher. I'm genuinely interested as to what these cuts are?Danny565 said:The BBC really do disgrace themselves on Budget days. They literally just swallow the government spin: there is barely a mention of the £4.2 BILLION in disability benefits cuts in their main story, just as last June they didn't mention the tax credit cuts and instead focussed on the minimum wage increase.
Personal Independence Payments are being cut by £4.2bn in total.0 -
No I don't but I don't think Osborne would dare tell an outright lie at the dispatch box. Not highlighting/mentioning the negative is not the same as lying outright.Danny565 said:
Do you have a source for this other than Osborne's word?Philip_Thompson said:
If the disability payments in total are at the highest ever levelsDanny565 said:
Again, this is another example of the media being mindless enough to just swallow his spin at face value. Just like a year ago when (for a couple of days) he got the media to focus on an increase in the minimum wage, and ignore the fact that tax credits would be cut by much more than the increased wage.Sandpit said:
The Chancellor said that there was an extra billion for the disabled, and that spending on the disabled had never been higher. I'm genuinely interested as to what these cuts are?Danny565 said:The BBC really do disgrace themselves on Budget days. They literally just swallow the government spin: there is barely a mention of the £4.2 BILLION in disability benefits cuts in their main story, just as last June they didn't mention the tax credit cuts and instead focussed on the minimum wage increase.
Personal Independence Payments are being cut by £4.2bn in total.0 -
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A related question: is there any other place the Unrealistic Punters for Not Trump bus will stop after Kasichtown? Could we see Ryan backed into a silly price?Alistair said:
I still think Trump will lock this up and ith an outright majority incidentally, just looking for insurance.Alistair said:
Green on Trump Cruz Ryan and Romeny. Red on everyone else. Is there anyone else feasible as a brokered convention candidate?Speedy said:I added up the delegate numbers for the GOP race, by April 19th Trump will be 57 under target, assuming he gets none in Utah, N.Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming, Samoa and if he loses Wisconsin.
If he overperforms with delegates in N.Y., Pennsylvania and California the same way he did in Illinois, he should be 17 delegates above 1237.
I think chances favour Trump having a majority now, but it will be debilitating for everyone to wait until California in June.0 -
IDS said it too but said in cash terms.Danny565 said:
Do you have a source for this other than Osborne's word?Philip_Thompson said:
If the disability payments in total are at the highest ever levelsDanny565 said:
Again, this is another example of the media being mindless enough to just swallow his spin at face value. Just like a year ago when (for a couple of days) he got the media to focus on an increase in the minimum wage, and ignore the fact that tax credits would be cut by much more than the increased wage.Sandpit said:
The Chancellor said that there was an extra billion for the disabled, and that spending on the disabled had never been higher. I'm genuinely interested as to what these cuts are?Danny565 said:The BBC really do disgrace themselves on Budget days. They literally just swallow the government spin: there is barely a mention of the £4.2 BILLION in disability benefits cuts in their main story, just as last June they didn't mention the tax credit cuts and instead focussed on the minimum wage increase.
Personal Independence Payments are being cut by £4.2bn in total.
I find it hard to believe but like you would like to see the figures0 -
If Trump goes >1237, it won't be until the last possible day, 7th June...Speedy said:I added up the delegate numbers for the GOP race, by April 19th Trump will be 57 under target, assuming he gets none in Utah, N.Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming, Samoa and if he loses Wisconsin.
If he overperforms with delegates in N.Y., Pennsylvania and California the same way he did in Illinois, he should be 17 delegates above 1237.
I think chances favour Trump having a majority now, but it will be debilitating for everyone to wait until California in June.0 -
Not even slightly. It seems for all his planning, all the admittedly difficult choices he's had to make, ultimately if he succeeds in his primary goal or succeeds Cameron will come down entirely to being very very lucky, if it happens.another_richard said:Osborne's borrowing prediction:
2015/16 £72.2bn
2016/17 £55.5bn -£16.7bn
2017/18 £38.8bn -£16.7bn
2018/19 £21.4bn -£17.4bn
2019/20 £10.4bn surplus -£31.8bn
Does anyone really believe there's going to be such a huge improvement in the public finances during an election year ???0 -
He said at the despatch box last year that his Budget was increasing workers' wages, before the IFS came out with a report 24 hours later which was basically summarised as "he lies".Philip_Thompson said:
No I don't but I don't think Osborne would dare tell an outright lie at the dispatch box.Danny565 said:
Do you have a source for this other than Osborne's word?Philip_Thompson said:
If the disability payments in total are at the highest ever levelsDanny565 said:
Again, this is another example of the media being mindless enough to just swallow his spin at face value. Just like a year ago when (for a couple of days) he got the media to focus on an increase in the minimum wage, and ignore the fact that tax credits would be cut by much more than the increased wage.Sandpit said:
The Chancellor said that there was an extra billion for the disabled, and that spending on the disabled had never been higher. I'm genuinely interested as to what these cuts are?Danny565 said:The BBC really do disgrace themselves on Budget days. They literally just swallow the government spin: there is barely a mention of the £4.2 BILLION in disability benefits cuts in their main story, just as last June they didn't mention the tax credit cuts and instead focussed on the minimum wage increase.
Personal Independence Payments are being cut by £4.2bn in total.0 -
You do realise there are other drinks available, right?bigjohnowls said:
Agree but for it to work the price of Coke has to be higher than Coke Zero. Cant see a levy will have that affectFrancisUrquhart said:
Soft Drink prices are always on offers of some sort, so they will do it that way as well. But simple answer is no, and lets not forget that the price of a bottle of say 500ml coke has risen significantly over the past couple of years from ~£1 to £1.35+ and I doubt it has any impact on their sales.bigjohnowls said:Re sugar levy. Does anyone think there will be a differential price for Diet Coke and full sugar Coke. Cant see it myself. I reckon both will increase in price therefore having no impact.
Like water....0 -
Maybe they've relabelled corporation tax giveaways as "disability benefits"?bigjohnowls said:
IDS said it too but said in cash terms.Danny565 said:
Do you have a source for this other than Osborne's word?Philip_Thompson said:
If the disability payments in total are at the highest ever levelsDanny565 said:
Again, this is another example of the media being mindless enough to just swallow his spin at face value. Just like a year ago when (for a couple of days) he got the media to focus on an increase in the minimum wage, and ignore the fact that tax credits would be cut by much more than the increased wage.Sandpit said:
The Chancellor said that there was an extra billion for the disabled, and that spending on the disabled had never been higher. I'm genuinely interested as to what these cuts are?Danny565 said:The BBC really do disgrace themselves on Budget days. They literally just swallow the government spin: there is barely a mention of the £4.2 BILLION in disability benefits cuts in their main story, just as last June they didn't mention the tax credit cuts and instead focussed on the minimum wage increase.
Personal Independence Payments are being cut by £4.2bn in total.
I find it hard to believe but like you would like to see the figures0 -
Yes if necessary (barring recession), to go into the election still in deficit would be a humiliation, to go so with a surplus saying "we fixed this, don't let Labour mess it up again" would be a success. The election year makes it less likely, not more, that the surplus will be missed.another_richard said:Osborne's borrowing prediction:
2015/16 £72.2bn
2016/17 £55.5bn -£16.7bn
2017/18 £38.8bn -£16.7bn
2018/19 £21.4bn -£17.4bn
2019/20 £10.4bn surplus -£31.8bn
Does anyone really believe there's going to be such a huge improvement in the public finances during an election year ???0 -
The electorate does not consist of a panel of Harvard wonks.NorfolkTilIDie said:
Trump, the man who spends him time insulting every other candidate and believes in imaginary New Jersey Muslims cheering 9/11, is presidential??Gaius said:
No, I don't think that will happen because you don't understand the psychology.Sandpit said:
It's going to be a nasty, nasty campaign on both sides. There will be plenty more ads like that one.Gaius said:This is pretty savage.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BDBS8bYGhWr/
Trump is going to destroy Clinton.
Trump will go very hard on Hillary and portray her as utterly corrupt. Hillary will play on the fears of Trump the man as being unfit and dangerous.
I'd have thought that by November most Americans would wish they had a choice of someone else.
From a purely betting perspective there has to be some value in Trump to win - unless he gets stitched up at the Convention.
The numerous scandals around the Clintons have been around for years with no result.
As such Trump will merely allude to Clinton as being ill, and shrill anti-male. Trump appears presidental.
Clinton can do one of two things, go easy on Trump in which case he wins by default, or
go hard on Trump in which case he wins as she appears (mentally) ill, shrill and anti-male.
As Clinton has never shown any ability at politics guess which one she will choose.
Trump is going to win by a landslide.0 -
Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes0 -
Immaterial, for the same reason people didn't seemingly react that much when official figures showed us going into, out of and then back into recession (before it later updates changed that too) - to most people it felt pretty much the same even if the percentage decimals went one way or another, what mattered was how they felt. Same now - if we continue to feel like crap, he will likely suffer, even if it is his first 'official' fall back into recession.Philip_Thompson said:
The Chancellor is extremely unlikely to survive a second recession in his job, considering there hasn't even been a first recession in his job yet.0 -
Since 2010 growth in the G20 has consistently disappointed. The downside of being one of the fastest growing economies is that none of our markets are growing much making faster growth here and rebalancing really difficult. To make these targets growth here needs to be comfortably better than the new OBR figures. That will only happen if growth elsewhere exceeds expectations. That looks unlikely at the moment. The risks are on the downside.kle4 said:
Not even slightly. It seems for all his planning, all the admittedly difficult choices he's had to make, ultimately if he succeeds in his primary goal or succeeds Cameron will come down entirely to being very very lucky, if it happens.another_richard said:Osborne's borrowing prediction:
2015/16 £72.2bn
2016/17 £55.5bn -£16.7bn
2017/18 £38.8bn -£16.7bn
2018/19 £21.4bn -£17.4bn
2019/20 £10.4bn surplus -£31.8bn
Does anyone really believe there's going to be such a huge improvement in the public finances during an election year ???0 -
Quite. I would expect the Chancellor to present the figures positively, but an outright lie would have been front page news by now.Philip_Thompson said:
No I don't but I don't think Osborne would dare tell an outright lie at the dispatch box. Not highlighting/mentioning the negative is not the same as lying outright.Danny565 said:
Do you have a source for this other than Osborne's word?Philip_Thompson said:
If the disability payments in total are at the highest ever levelsDanny565 said:
Again, this is another example of the media being mindless enough to just swallow his spin at face value. Just like a year ago when (for a couple of days) he got the media to focus on an increase in the minimum wage, and ignore the fact that tax credits would be cut by much more than the increased wage.Sandpit said:
The Chancellor said that there was an extra billion for the disabled, and that spending on the disabled had never been higher. I'm genuinely interested as to what these cuts are?Danny565 said:The BBC really do disgrace themselves on Budget days. They literally just swallow the government spin: there is barely a mention of the £4.2 BILLION in disability benefits cuts in their main story, just as last June they didn't mention the tax credit cuts and instead focussed on the minimum wage increase.
Personal Independence Payments are being cut by £4.2bn in total.
The chancellor said that state aid to the disabled was being focussed on those with the most severe disabilities, does this mean that genuinely disabled people are losing out or that those who are capable of working are being encouraged to do so? It may also be that the PIP payments used to for example modify homes for assisted living are no longer needed as someone's home doesn't need modifying more than once.
There's clearly a lot of detail missing from the discussion, are we expecting the changes to be in the Finance Bill or is there more information in today's accompanying documentation to the Budget..?0 -
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes0 -
Take a look at Osborne's borrowing predictions of 2010.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes if necessary (barring recession), to go into the election still in deficit would be a humiliation, to go so with a surplus saying "we fixed this, don't let Labour mess it up again" would be a success. The election year makes it less likely, not more, that the surplus will be missed.another_richard said:Osborne's borrowing prediction:
2015/16 £72.2bn
2016/17 £55.5bn -£16.7bn
2017/18 £38.8bn -£16.7bn
2018/19 £21.4bn -£17.4bn
2019/20 £10.4bn surplus -£31.8bn
Does anyone really believe there's going to be such a huge improvement in the public finances during an election year ???
Back then people were also saying how humiliating it would be if he went into the next election having missed them.
If its a choice between missing his borrowing predictions (yet again) and throwing bribes at the electorate Osborne will chose the latter. As he has done time and time before.
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You don't need to be a Harvard wonk to find Trump a bellicose clown. He'll lose badly among minorities (a third of the electorate), and struggle among white graduates (another third) and there won't be enough uneducated whites to see him through.RodCrosby said:
The electorate does not consist of a panel of Harvard wonks.NorfolkTilIDie said:
Trump, the man who spends him time insulting every other candidate and believes in imaginary New Jersey Muslims cheering 9/11, is presidential??Gaius said:
No, I don't think that will happen because you don't understand the psychology.Sandpit said:
It's going to be a nasty, nasty campaign on both sides. There will be plenty more ads like that one.Gaius said:This is pretty savage.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BDBS8bYGhWr/
Trump is going to destroy Clinton.
Trump will go very hard on Hillary and portray her as utterly corrupt. Hillary will play on the fears of Trump the man as being unfit and dangerous.
I'd have thought that by November most Americans would wish they had a choice of someone else.
From a purely betting perspective there has to be some value in Trump to win - unless he gets stitched up at the Convention.
The numerous scandals around the Clintons have been around for years with no result.
As such Trump will merely allude to Clinton as being ill, and shrill anti-male. Trump appears presidental.
Clinton can do one of two things, go easy on Trump in which case he wins by default, or
go hard on Trump in which case he wins as she appears (mentally) ill, shrill and anti-male.
As Clinton has never shown any ability at politics guess which one she will choose.
Trump is going to win by a landslide.0 -
The age gap is oft-mentioned but worth noting that Remain have a massive lead with ABC1s.TheScreamingEagles said:Here's the data tables
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/710172811285889024
I wonder which of those differences will matter most in the end.0 -
The mention of the Tampon Tax was to me the unforced error of the Budget speech. He reminded his Eurosceptic backbenchers of the fact that the Government cannot legislate on this issue, while also committing the govt to donate money to a number of large 'Charities', something the govt was trying to get away from in the aftermath of the Kids Company fiasco.nigel4england said:
And the Outers will use the Tampon Tax to highlight how we cannot make our own laws, is there the remotest possibility of this budget being voted down?Danny565 said:Apparently some Tory MPs are angry about the big cuts to disability benefits.
Hopefully the 2015 intake (Heidi Allen et al) will put the kibosh on it again.
Edit: Guido has noted that a few Eurosceptic MPs have picked up on this too.
http://order-order.com/2016/03/16/tory-tampon-rebellion/
Is it possible that Tory rebels would actually vote down the Finance Bill?0 -
What is this nonsense about corporation tax cuts? By my reckoning the restrictions on the offsetting of debt interest against tax was the biggest single movement in the budget and massively overrides the 1p cut in the rate. Roughly £9bn more to pay for all those lovely benefits.0
-
Right - so despite all his supposed skill at the job, he comes down to the exact same excuses as any other chancellor he no doubt opposed; blame the world economy when you do poorly, while trying to claim the credit when the world economy, and you, do better.DavidL said:
To make these targets growth here needs to be comfortably better than the new OBR figures. That will only happen if growth elsewhere exceeds expectations. That looks unlikely at the moment.kle4 said:
Not even slightly. It seems for all his planning, all the admittedly difficult choices he's had to make, ultimately if he succeeds in his primary goal or succeeds Cameron will come down entirely to being very very lucky, if it happens.another_richard said:Osborne's borrowing prediction:
2015/16 £72.2bn
2016/17 £55.5bn -£16.7bn
2017/18 £38.8bn -£16.7bn
2018/19 £21.4bn -£17.4bn
2019/20 £10.4bn surplus -£31.8bn
Does anyone really believe there's going to be such a huge improvement in the public finances during an election year ???
0 -
Bloody yoof. Lock 'em up*.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
*except me, of course.0 -
What would he give for a chance to claim the credit for above expectations growth elsewhere? Chancellor for 6 years and it's not happened yet.kle4 said:
Right - so despite all his supposed skill at the job, he comes down to the exact same excuses as any other chancellor he no doubt opposed; blame the world economy when you do poorly, while trying to claim the credit when the world economy, and you, do better.DavidL said:
To make these targets growth here needs to be comfortably better than the new OBR figures. That will only happen if growth elsewhere exceeds expectations. That looks unlikely at the moment.kle4 said:
Not even slightly. It seems for all his planning, all the admittedly difficult choices he's had to make, ultimately if he succeeds in his primary goal or succeeds Cameron will come down entirely to being very very lucky, if it happens.another_richard said:Osborne's borrowing prediction:
2015/16 £72.2bn
2016/17 £55.5bn -£16.7bn
2017/18 £38.8bn -£16.7bn
2018/19 £21.4bn -£17.4bn
2019/20 £10.4bn surplus -£31.8bn
Does anyone really believe there's going to be such a huge improvement in the public finances during an election year ???0 -
It's not immaterial to expect economic journalists who are reporting on the budget to know such basic facts like when the last recession was.kle4 said:
Immaterial, for the same reason people didn't seemingly react that much when official figures showed us going into, out of and then back into recession (before it later updates changed that too) - to most people it felt pretty much the same even if the percentage decimals went one way or another, what mattered was how they felt. Same now - if we continue to feel like crap, he will likely suffer, even if it is his first 'official' fall back into recession.Philip_Thompson said:
The Chancellor is extremely unlikely to survive a second recession in his job, considering there hasn't even been a first recession in his job yet.0 -
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.0 -
Apparently not, but that's not a reason for me to think he's any good, is it? If he blames his continual failure to meet his own targets on external factors, why shouldn't I ascribe any successes he has had or may have on external factors as well?DavidL said:
What would he give for a chance to claim the credit for above expectations growth elsewhere? Chancellor for 6 years and it's not happened yet.kle4 said:
Right - so despite all his supposed skill at the job, he comes down to the exact same excuses as any other chancellor he no doubt opposed; blame the world economy when you do poorly, while trying to claim the credit when the world economy, and you, do better.DavidL said:
To make these targets growth here needs to be comfortably better than the new OBR figures. That will only happen if growth elsewhere exceeds expectations. That looks unlikely at the moment.kle4 said:
Not even slightly. It seems for all his planning, all the admittedly difficult choices he's had to make, ultimately if he succeeds in his primary goal or succeeds Cameron will come down entirely to being very very lucky, if it happens.another_richard said:Osborne's borrowing prediction:
2015/16 £72.2bn
2016/17 £55.5bn -£16.7bn
2017/18 £38.8bn -£16.7bn
2018/19 £21.4bn -£17.4bn
2019/20 £10.4bn surplus -£31.8bn
Does anyone really believe there's going to be such a huge improvement in the public finances during an election year ???0 -
Ta.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Try thisCasino_Royale said:
Ah, thank you. Do you have a linky?Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
AndyJS of this parish had a load of them on his You Tube channel.Casino_Royale said:
Great stuff. I am enough of a nerd to really enjoy these programmes so will put this one on record.marke09 said:BBC PARLIAMENT
BBC PARLIAMENT
1966 General Election
To mark the 50th anniversary, BBC Parliament gives viewers a chance to experience the 1966 General Election through this archive broadcast of the BBC’s original live election results coverage from Thursday 31 March 1966.
Cliff Michelmore hosts the BBC’s 1966 General Election programme, with analysis of the results by election experts David Butler and Robert McKenzie, political commentary from the BBC’s parliamentary correspondent Ian Trethowan, and interviews by Robin Day.
The election battle is between Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s Labour Party, which was attempting to improve on the parliamentary majority of just one seat it held at the time the election was called, and the Conservatives under the eight-month-old leadership of Edward Heath, with hopes of overturning Labour’s narrow majority.
Live coverage of declarations and reaction to the results comes from across the country, including reports from Frank Bough in Wolverhampton, Magnus Magnusson in Glasgow, Raymond Baxter in Billericay, Michael Parkinson in Birmingham and Alan Wicker with the crowds watching the BBC’s coverage on a big screen in Trafalgar Square.
In addition, Michael Aspel presents regular news summaries, Robert Robinson provides a review of the newspapers, and among the studio guests giving their response to the election campaign and results are the editor of the Spectator magazine Nigel Lawson and the US political commentator Theodore H White.
Pictured: Harold Wilson
Monday 28 March
8.20-12 midnight
BBC PARLIAMENT
Thanks.
https://www.youtube.com/user/ajs41/videos0 -
I suppose not, but whether the decimal points mean we had an official recession or not is immaterial to the public, so the mistake of economic journalists is surely not significant even if it infuriates you.Philip_Thompson said:
It's not immaterial to expect economic journalists who are reporting on the budget to know such basic facts like when the last recession was.kle4 said:
Immaterial, for the same reason people didn't seemingly react that much when official figures showed us going into, out of and then back into recession (before it later updates changed that too) - to most people it felt pretty much the same even if the percentage decimals went one way or another, what mattered was how they felt. Same now - if we continue to feel like crap, he will likely suffer, even if it is his first 'official' fall back into recession.Philip_Thompson said:
The Chancellor is extremely unlikely to survive a second recession in his job, considering there hasn't even been a first recession in his job yet.0 -
So looking forward to GOT coming back.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.0 -
On that, I agree with you - untested waters for book fans and TV fans as well!DavidL said:
So looking forward to GOT coming back.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.0 -
That's actually a great idea for remain campaign - get the young'uns to lobby their grandparents.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.
"Please don't risk our future"0 -
You place to much faith in the Wesminster bubble types. The Economist claimed the other week that CETA didn't cover financial services, when its one of the main chapters!!Philip_Thompson said:
It's not immaterial to expect economic journalists who are reporting on the budget to know such basic facts like when the last recession was.kle4 said:
Immaterial, for the same reason people didn't seemingly react that much when official figures showed us going into, out of and then back into recession (before it later updates changed that too) - to most people it felt pretty much the same even if the percentage decimals went one way or another, what mattered was how they felt. Same now - if we continue to feel like crap, he will likely suffer, even if it is his first 'official' fall back into recession.Philip_Thompson said:
The Chancellor is extremely unlikely to survive a second recession in his job, considering there hasn't even been a first recession in his job yet.0 -
Except we're doing better than the world, so deserve credit where credit's due.kle4 said:
Right - so despite all his supposed skill at the job, he comes down to the exact same excuses as any other chancellor he no doubt opposed; blame the world economy when you do poorly, while trying to claim the credit when the world economy, and you, do better.DavidL said:
To make these targets growth here needs to be comfortably better than the new OBR figures. That will only happen if growth elsewhere exceeds expectations. That looks unlikely at the moment.kle4 said:
Not even slightly. It seems for all his planning, all the admittedly difficult choices he's had to make, ultimately if he succeeds in his primary goal or succeeds Cameron will come down entirely to being very very lucky, if it happens.another_richard said:Osborne's borrowing prediction:
2015/16 £72.2bn
2016/17 £55.5bn -£16.7bn
2017/18 £38.8bn -£16.7bn
2018/19 £21.4bn -£17.4bn
2019/20 £10.4bn surplus -£31.8bn
Does anyone really believe there's going to be such a huge improvement in the public finances during an election year ???0 -
Yes. The relief that I cannot accidentally give away a spoiler from having read the books will be palpable.kle4 said:
On that, I agree with you - untested waters for book fans and TV fans as well!DavidL said:
So looking forward to GOT coming back.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.0 -
Me too. Enough of this faux gasping at a mediocre budget. Bring on Game of Thrones and let the Winds of Winter rage.DavidL said:
So looking forward to GOT coming back.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.
Oh, and good evening to all.0 -
If you say so. I gave Osborne a lot of leeway for years and years and years, I recall how it was so obvious it would end up being 2020 by the time we achieved, presumably, a surplus, but the pretense was kept up. No, it'll be 2017. No, 2018. And so on and so forth. He made that the benchmark on which to judge him - not managing it in five years, given the troubles, seems not unreasonable at least, but not managing it in 10, as seems likely? Even with all our and the world's problems? I no longer have faith in his plans.Philip_Thompson said:
Except we're doing better than the world, so deserve credit where credit's due.kle4 said:
Right - so despite all his supposed skill at the job, he comes down to the exact same excuses as any other chancellor he no doubt opposed; blame the world economy when you do poorly, while trying to claim the credit when the world economy, and you, do better.DavidL said:
To make these targets growth here needs to be comfortably better than the new OBR figures. That will only happen if growth elsewhere exceeds expectations. That looks unlikely at the moment.kle4 said:
Not even slightly. It seems for all his planning, all the admittedly difficult choices he's had to make, ultimately if he succeeds in his primary goal or succeeds Cameron will come down entirely to being very very lucky, if it happens.another_richard said:Osborne's borrowing prediction:
2015/16 £72.2bn
2016/17 £55.5bn -£16.7bn
2017/18 £38.8bn -£16.7bn
2018/19 £21.4bn -£17.4bn
2019/20 £10.4bn surplus -£31.8bn
Does anyone really believe there's going to be such a huge improvement in the public finances during an election year ???
Obviously Corbyn and McDonnell are not options, so I guess I'll probably vote LD again for lack of options.0 -
https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/cigi_paper_no.91_web.pdfNorfolkTilIDie said:
You place to much faith in the Wesminster bubble types. The Economist claimed the other week that CETA didn't cover financial services, when its one of the main chapters!!Philip_Thompson said:
It's not immaterial to expect economic journalists who are reporting on the budget to know such basic facts like when the last recession was.kle4 said:
Immaterial, for the same reason people didn't seemingly react that much when official figures showed us going into, out of and then back into recession (before it later updates changed that too) - to most people it felt pretty much the same even if the percentage decimals went one way or another, what mattered was how they felt. Same now - if we continue to feel like crap, he will likely suffer, even if it is his first 'official' fall back into recession.Philip_Thompson said:
The Chancellor is extremely unlikely to survive a second recession in his job, considering there hasn't even been a first recession in his job yet.
"In sum, CETA provisions found in chapter 15 are likely to have a marginal impact on the Canadian and European financial services sectors, for two reasons. First, these provisions closely follow those of GATS and its annex on financial services,16 of which Canada and the European Union are signatories. Second, although CETA provides the possibility for the free movement of financial services and the individuals who supply them, many regulatory and licensing requirements are likely to remain in place on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean once the agreement comes into force."0 -
He has not done a bad job to be fair, he's managed to reduce quite a lot of govt spending without causing a recession, in the face of poor economic performance of most of our near neighbours and key trading partners.Philip_Thompson said:
Except we're doing better than the world, so deserve credit where credit's due.kle4 said:
Right - so despite all his supposed skill at the job, he comes down to the exact same excuses as any other chancellor he no doubt opposed; blame the world economy when you do poorly, while trying to claim the credit when the world economy, and you, do better.DavidL said:
To make these targets growth here needs to be comfortably better than the new OBR figures. That will only happen if growth elsewhere exceeds expectations. That looks unlikely at the moment.kle4 said:
Not even slightly. It seems for all his planning, all the admittedly difficult choices he's had to make, ultimately if he succeeds in his primary goal or succeeds Cameron will come down entirely to being very very lucky, if it happens.another_richard said:Osborne's borrowing prediction:
2015/16 £72.2bn
2016/17 £55.5bn -£16.7bn
2017/18 £38.8bn -£16.7bn
2018/19 £21.4bn -£17.4bn
2019/20 £10.4bn surplus -£31.8bn
Does anyone really believe there's going to be such a huge improvement in the public finances during an election year ???
He can reasonably be criticised from the right, but to suggest that the alternatives of Brown/Darling/Miliband/Corbyn would have done anything like as good a job is preposterous. If Brown had won the 2010 election we would most likely had a rerun of 1976 with the IMF dictating the Budget a couple of years later rather than the Chancellor.0 -
Or the grandparents to lobby the young'uns.Pong said:
That's actually a great idea for remain campaign - get the young'uns to lobby their grandparents.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.
"Please don't risk our future"
Look to a better future,the world is our oyster.
0 -
Evening. Is your icon John Snow really going to be alive and a player? I vaguely recall muttering I would not read the next book if he wasn't. Too few Starks left.MikeK said:
Me too. Enough of this faux gasping at a mediocre budget. Bring on Game of Thrones and let the Winds of Winter rage.DavidL said:
So looking forward to GOT coming back.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.
Oh, and good evening to all.
Winter is coming has entered the language in a way that is truly remarkable. Mind you half of the Godfather script did the same.0 -
Or Brown and Balls would not have flatlined the economy for a couple of years before Osborne abandoned Plan A, and we'd be further ahead.Sandpit said:
He has not done a bad job to be fair, he's managed to reduce quite a lot of govt spending without causing a recession, in the face of poor economic performance of most of our near neighbours and key trading partners.Philip_Thompson said:
Except we're doing better than the world, so deserve credit where credit's due.kle4 said:
Right - so despite all his supposed skill at the job, he comes down to the exact same excuses as any other chancellor he no doubt opposed; blame the world economy when you do poorly, while trying to claim the credit when the world economy, and you, do better.DavidL said:
To make these targets growth here needs to be comfortably better than the new OBR figures. That will only happen if growth elsewhere exceeds expectations. That looks unlikely at the moment.kle4 said:
Not even slightly. It seems for all his planning, all the admittedly difficult choices he's had to make, ultimately if he succeeds in his primary goal or succeeds Cameron will come down entirely to being very very lucky, if it happens.another_richard said:Osborne's borrowing prediction:
2015/16 £72.2bn
2016/17 £55.5bn -£16.7bn
2017/18 £38.8bn -£16.7bn
2018/19 £21.4bn -£17.4bn
2019/20 £10.4bn surplus -£31.8bn
Does anyone really believe there's going to be such a huge improvement in the public finances during an election year ???
He can reasonably be criticised from the right, but to suggest that the alternatives of Brown/Darling/Miliband/Corbyn would have done anything like as good a job is preposterous. If Brown had won the 2010 election we would most likely had a rerun of 1976 with the IMF dictating the Budget a couple of years later rather than the Chancellor.0 -
Saga holidays probably are under threat in the event of Leave. Not that I've been on one!Pong said:
That's actually a great idea for remain campaign - get the young'uns to lobby their grandparents.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.
"Please don't risk our future"0 -
Trump will get some delegates from those states, all he needs to do. Utah has a 15% threshold, just needs to organise a bit and put some effort in, likely comfortable win Arizona being the only distraction. Even his worst state Utah should throw up a couple.Speedy said:I added up the delegate numbers for the GOP race, by April 19th Trump will be 57 under target, assuming he gets none in Utah, N.Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming, Samoa and if he loses Wisconsin.
If he overperforms with delegates in N.Y., Pennsylvania and California the same way he did in Illinois, he should be 17 delegates above 1237.
I think chances favour Trump having a majority now, but it will be debilitating for everyone to wait until California in June.
Wisconsin looks good for Trump, similar to Michigan and Illinois so he should be up into the 40s. Rick Santorum got mid 30s and I see that as Cruz's ceiling. Trump's vote share is rising remorselessly and Wisconsin is still a couple of weeks away.0 -
I believe Melisandre will revive Jon by means of necrophilia.DavidL said:
Evening. Is your icon John Snow really going to be alive and a player? I vaguely recall muttering I would not read the next book if he wasn't. Too few Starks left.MikeK said:
Me too. Enough of this faux gasping at a mediocre budget. Bring on Game of Thrones and let the Winds of Winter rage.DavidL said:
So looking forward to GOT coming back.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.
Oh, and good evening to all.
Winter is coming has entered the language in a way that is truly remarkable. Mind you half of the Godfather script did the same.0 -
It was the werthers threat that was making me hesitate.OldKingCole said:
Saga holidays probably are under threat in the event of Leave. Not that I've been on one!Pong said:
That's actually a great idea for remain campaign - get the young'uns to lobby their grandparents.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.
"Please don't risk our future"0 -
One reason I actually had hope reading the fifth book was the sense, that ending aside, that after several books of horrors of which the book itself had plenty, and the world seemingly telling those alive Starks to hide or forget their very identities in order to survive, that light was stirring, that on some small level, people were remembering people like the Starks and times of hope (I recall the show moved a great Theon speechand moment of revelation from book 5 into S3). The North Remembers!DavidL said:
Too few Starks left.MikeK said:
Me too. Enough of this faux gasping at a mediocre budget. Bring on Game of Thrones and let the Winds of Winter rage.DavidL said:
So looking forward to GOT coming back.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is comie made of strong stuff.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I sup at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Oh, and good evening to all.
.
Yes, probably. It's why I gave him so much leeway for years. But there's limits to that, even when the alternatives are uncertain at best.Sandpit said:
He can reasonably be criticised from the right, but to suggest that the alternatives of Brown/Darling/Miliband/Corbyn would have done anything like as good a job is preposterous.
0 -
Except we're not having an election in 17 or 18, we're having one in 20. If there is a surplus in 19/20 then that will have been confirmed (not just projected) before the next election. Seems a reasonable standard to judge the party on at election time.kle4 said:
If you say so. I gave Osborne a lot of leeway for years and years and years, I recall how it was so obvious it would end up being 2020 by the time we achieved, presumably, a surplus, but the pretense was kept up. No, it'll be 2017. No, 2018. And so on and so forth. He made that the benchmark on which to judge him - not managing it in five years, given the troubles, seems not unreasonable at least, but not managing it in 10, as seems likely? Even with all our and the world's problems? I no longer have faith in his plans.Philip_Thompson said:
Except we're doing better than the world, so deserve credit where credit's due.kle4 said:
Right - so despite all his supposed skill at the job, he comes down to the exact same excuses as any other chancellor he no doubt opposed; blame the world economy when you do poorly, while trying to claim the credit when the world economy, and you, do better.DavidL said:
To make these targets growth here needs to be comfortably better than the new OBR figures. That will only happen if growth elsewhere exceeds expectations. That looks unlikely at the moment.kle4 said:
Not even slightly. It seems for all his planning, all the admittedly difficult choices he's had to make, ultimately if he succeeds in his primary goal or succeeds Cameron will come down entirely to being very very lucky, if it happens.another_richard said:Osborne's borrowing prediction:
2015/16 £72.2bn
2016/17 £55.5bn -£16.7bn
2017/18 £38.8bn -£16.7bn
2018/19 £21.4bn -£17.4bn
2019/20 £10.4bn surplus -£31.8bn
Does anyone really believe there's going to be such a huge improvement in the public finances during an election year ???
Obviously Corbyn and McDonnell are not options, so I guess I'll probably vote LD again for lack of options.
Though the odds of Osborne being Chancellor at the election seem slim to nil anyway. If he's the new party leader he won't be Chancellor by definition; if he's not then he's almost certainly going to be reshuffled away when the new leader freshens his/her team up. Come 2020 he'll have been Chancellor/Shadow Chancellor for 15 years which is quite a long run.0 -
I was amused by the pb'er the other day who commented on a certain lead Channel 4 newspresenter going out to the migrant camp at Calais, trotting out the usual left-liberal shibboleths about it, and summed it up with.. you know nothing, Jon Snow.DavidL said:
Evening. Is your icon John Snow really going to be alive and a player? I vaguely recall muttering I would not read the next book if he wasn't. Too few Starks left.MikeK said:
Me too. Enough of this faux gasping at a mediocre budget. Bring on Game of Thrones and let the Winds of Winter rage.DavidL said:
So looking forward to GOT coming back.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.
Oh, and good evening to all.
Winter is coming has entered the language in a way that is truly remarkable. Mind you half of the Godfather script did the same.0 -
Yes, I've read that. It definitely confirms it covers financial services, doesn't it? It says the main reason there won't be more impact is because GATS has already done so much for international trade in financial services between countries. It also says the main barrier to further integration was on Canadian side, who still have failed to align finance regulations between various provinces. That won't apply to UK obviously.AlastairMeeks said:
https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/cigi_paper_no.91_web.pdfNorfolkTilIDie said:
You place to much faith in the Wesminster bubble types. The Economist claimed the other week that CETA didn't cover financial services, when its one of the main chapters!!Philip_Thompson said:
It's not immaterial to expect economic journalists who are reporting on the budget to know such basic facts like when the last recession was.kle4 said:
Immaterial, for the same reason people didn't seemingly react that much when official figures showed us going into, out of and then back into recession (before it later updates changed that too) - to most people it felt pretty much the same even if the percentage decimals went one way or another, what mattered was how they felt. Same now - if we continue to feel like crap, he will likely suffer, even if it is his first 'official' fall back into recession.Philip_Thompson said:
The Chancellor is extremely unlikely to survive a second recession in his job, considering there hasn't even been a first recession in his job yet.
"In sum, CETA provisions found in chapter 15 are likely to have a marginal impact on the Canadian and European financial services sectors, for two reasons. First, these provisions closely follow those of GATS and its annex on financial services,16 of which Canada and the European Union are signatories. Second, although CETA provides the possibility for the free movement of financial services and the individuals who supply them, many regulatory and licensing requirements are likely to remain in place on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean once the agreement comes into force."0 -
My point was it was as close to a direct lie as politicians come (I don't think they lie very often). It was obvious they would choose to push it back even further, but pretended they were aiming for 17 and then 18 and then, further down the road, 19/20. Maybe that makes sense politically, maybe it make sense economically, I'm still irritated at the gamesmanship. I'd have preferred to have been told earlier.Philip_Thompson said:
Except we're not having an election in 17 or 18, we're having one in 20. If there is a surplus in 19/20 then that will have been confirmed (not just projected) before the next election. Seems a reasonable standard to judge the party on at election time.kle4 said:
If you say so. I gave Osborne a lot of leeway for years and years and years, I recall how it was so obvious it would end up being 2020 by the time we achieved, presumably, a surplus, but the pretense was kept up. No, it'll be 2017. No, 2018. And so on and so forth. He made that the benchmark on which to judge him - not managing it in five years, given the troubles, seems not unreasonable at least, but not managing it in 10, as seems likely? Even with all our and the world's problems? I no longer have faith in his plans.Philip_Thompson said:
Except we're doing better than the world, so deserve credit where credit's due.kle4 said:
Right - so despite all his supposed skill at the job, he comes down to the exact same excuses as any other chancellor he no doubt opposed; blame the world economy when you do poorly, while trying to claim the credit when the world economy, and you, do better.DavidL said:
To make these targets growth here needs to be comfortably better than the new OBR figures. That will only happen if growth elsewhere exceeds expectations. That looks unlikely at the moment.kle4 said:
Not even slightly. It seems for all his planning, all the admittedly difficult choices he's had to make, ultimately if he succeeds in his primary goal or succeeds Cameron will come down entirely to being very very lucky, if it happens.another_richard said:Osborne's borrowing prediction:
2015/16 £72.2bn
2016/17 £55.5bn -£16.7bn
2017/18 £38.8bn -£16.7bn
2018/19 £21.4bn -£17.4bn
2019/20 £10.4bn surplus -£31.8bn
Does anyone really believe there's going to be such a huge improvement in the public finances during an election year ???
Obviously Corbyn and McDonnell are not options, so I guess I'll probably vote LD again for lack of options.
0 -
I really hope that one of these days someone on Channel 4 News picks up on a mistake by the interviewer with "You know nothing Jon Snow"Sean_F said:
I believe Melisandre will revive Jon by means of necrophilia.DavidL said:
Evening. Is your icon John Snow really going to be alive and a player? I vaguely recall muttering I would not read the next book if he wasn't. Too few Starks left.MikeK said:
Me too. Enough of this faux gasping at a mediocre budget. Bring on Game of Thrones and let the Winds of Winter rage.DavidL said:
So looking forward to GOT coming back.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.
Oh, and good evening to all.
Winter is coming has entered the language in a way that is truly remarkable. Mind you half of the Godfather script did the same.0 -
You should apply for a job with BSE.OldKingCole said:
Saga holidays probably are under threat in the event of Leave. Not that I've been on one!Pong said:
That's actually a great idea for remain campaign - get the young'uns to lobby their grandparents.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.
"Please don't risk our future"0 -
That's why I'm determined to Remain. My children and grandchildren (those old enough to have an opinion) are solidly for Remain.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
So even if I wasn't for Remain anyway I owe it to them to vote Remain. It's their future.0 -
Most of the older people I know are strong Remainers so I'm always slightly taken aback by the polls showing them heavily the other way.OldKingCole said:
That's why I'm determined to Remain. My children and grandchildren (those old enough to have an opinion) are solidly for Remain.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
So even if I wasn't for Remain anyway I owe it to them to vote Remain. It's their future.0 -
Yup, that as well! Aren't they Amrican, though?DavidL said:
It was the werthers threat that was making me hesitate.OldKingCole said:
Saga holidays probably are under threat in the event of Leave. Not that I've been on one!Pong said:
That's actually a great idea for remain campaign - get the young'uns to lobby their grandparents.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.
"Please don't risk our future"0 -
No, it names two reasons why it will have a marginal impact. Don't just pick the one that suits you.NorfolkTilIDie said:
Yes, I've read that. It definitely confirms it covers financial services, doesn't it? It says the main reason there won't be more impact is because GATS has already done so much for international trade in financial services between countries. It also says the main barrier to further integration was on Canadian side, who still have failed to align finance regulations between various provinces. That won't apply to UK obviously.AlastairMeeks said:
https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/cigi_paper_no.91_web.pdfNorfolkTilIDie said:
You place to much faith in the Wesminster bubble types. The Economist claimed the other week that CETA didn't cover financial services, when its one of the main chapters!!Philip_Thompson said:
It's not immaterial to expect economic journalists who are reporting on the budget to know such basic facts like when the last recession was.kle4 said:
Immaterial, for the same reason people didn't seemingly react that much when official figures showed us going into, out of and then back into recession (before it later updates changed that too) - to most people it felt pretty much the same even if the percentage decimals went one way or another, what mattered was how they felt. Same now - if we continue to feel like crap, he will likely suffer, even if it is his first 'official' fall back into recession.Philip_Thompson said:
The Chancellor is extremely unlikely to survive a second recession in his job, considering there hasn't even been a first recession in his job yet.
"In sum, CETA provisions found in chapter 15 are likely to have a marginal impact on the Canadian and European financial services sectors, for two reasons. First, these provisions closely follow those of GATS and its annex on financial services,16 of which Canada and the European Union are signatories. Second, although CETA provides the possibility for the free movement of financial services and the individuals who supply them, many regulatory and licensing requirements are likely to remain in place on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean once the agreement comes into force."
And if you'd already read it and accept that it's going to have marginal impact, don't go promulgating bullshit about it being one of the main chapters.0 -
Trump supporters more reluctant to vote for Trump delegates with brown-sounding names
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-voters-aversion-to-foreign-sounding-names-cost-him-delegates/
0 -
Haven't you heard GoT is just tits and dragons...
“You say the slightest thing and the internet goes ape,” he says. “I was accused of giving the plot away, but I just think get a f---ing life. It’s only tits and dragons.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/2016/03/11/ian-mcshane-game-of-thrones-is-just-tits-and-dragons/0 -
And Clinton, of course, is the epitome of 'presidential'NorfolkTilIDie said:
Trump, the man who spends him time insulting every other candidate and believes in imaginary New Jersey Muslims cheering 9/11, is presidential??Gaius said:
No, I don't think that will happen because you don't understand the psychology.Sandpit said:
It's going to be a nasty, nasty campaign on both sides. There will be plenty more ads like that one.Gaius said:This is pretty savage.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BDBS8bYGhWr/
Trump is going to destroy Clinton.
Trump will go very hard on Hillary and portray her as utterly corrupt. Hillary will play on the fears of Trump the man as being unfit and dangerous.
I'd have thought that by November most Americans would wish they had a choice of someone else.
From a purely betting perspective there has to be some value in Trump to win - unless he gets stitched up at the Convention.
The numerous scandals around the Clintons have been around for years with no result.
As such Trump will merely allude to Clinton as being ill, and shrill anti-male. Trump appears presidental.
Clinton can do one of two things, go easy on Trump in which case he wins by default, or
go hard on Trump in which case he wins as she appears (mentally) ill, shrill and anti-male.
As Clinton has never shown any ability at politics guess which one she will choose.
Trump is going to win by a landslide.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17EOM3RTD1Y&feature=youtu.be
WTF was she thinking?
I mean...really...
0 -
And in their future the chances are they will change their views and then wish that Leave had won.OldKingCole said:
That's why I'm determined to Remain. My children and grandchildren (those old enough to have an opinion) are solidly for Remain.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
So even if I wasn't for Remain anyway I owe it to them to vote Remain. It's their future.
As we get older clearly we get more sensible.0 -
I think it's safer to just lock up all youth. Preventative. I'm sure you understand. Nothing personal, and all that.Casino_Royale said:
Bloody yoof. Lock 'em up*.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
*except me, of course.0 -
Nonsense - there aren't enough dragons for that, though I suppose they throw in extra tits to compensate I guess.FrancisUrquhart said:Haven't you heard GoT is just tits and dragons...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/2016/03/11/ian-mcshane-game-of-thrones-is-just-tits-and-dragons/0 -
They must all get a bit of shock when they turn up to one of his rallies and they get that excitable pastor chap doing the warm up....NorfolkTilIDie said:Trump supporters more reluctant to vote for Trump delegates with brown-sounding names
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-voters-aversion-to-foreign-sounding-names-cost-him-delegates/0 -
Why have you decided to vote to ruin their future?OldKingCole said:
That's why I'm determined to Remain. My children and grandchildren (those old enough to have an opinion) are solidly for Remain.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
So even if I wasn't for Remain anyway I owe it to them to vote Remain. It's their future.0 -
To be fair, his children and grandchildren can vote for UKIP if they want to exit down the road.Casino_Royale said:
Why have you decided to vote to ruin their future?OldKingCole said:
That's why I'm determined to Remain. My children and grandchildren (those old enough to have an opinion) are solidly for Remain.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
So even if I wasn't for Remain anyway I owe it to them to vote Remain. It's their future.0 -
Ouch.
Sajid Javid just got mauled on C4 news over his EU U-turn and what he knew about tax avoidance at Deutsche Bank.0 -
D'Ancona very heavily hattipping the political overlap in this budget between Osborne and Gove in his ES article tonight. Also mentioning things like making all schools academies, by compulsion if needed. Interestingly, he comes close to saying Cameron is yesterday's man and, even though Cameron and Boris now hate each other, almost sees this as an irrelevance.
On top of the jovial meeting at Dorneywood recently the evidence of an emerging Gove/Osborne alliance is growing.
I just put £20 on Gove as Next Chancellor. DYOR.0 -
I remember when I used to dream of a United States of Europe... Thank God I grew up.OldKingCole said:
That's why I'm determined to Remain. My children and grandchildren (those old enough to have an opinion) are solidly for Remain.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
So even if I wasn't for Remain anyway I owe it to them to vote Remain. It's their future.0 -
Interesting.Sean_F said:
I believe Melisandre will revive Jon by means of necrophilia.DavidL said:
Evening. Is your icon John Snow really going to be alive and a player? I vaguely recall muttering I would not read the next book if he wasn't. Too few Starks left.MikeK said:
Me too. Enough of this faux gasping at a mediocre budget. Bring on Game of Thrones and let the Winds of Winter rage.DavidL said:
So looking forward to GOT coming back.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.
Oh, and good evening to all.
Winter is coming has entered the language in a way that is truly remarkable. Mind you half of the Godfather script did the same.
My son is studying Mary Queen of Scots and the murder of Lord Darnley at the moment. Certainly sets the mood with absurd quantities of sex, conspiracy and brutality. Bothwell ended up chained to a post in a dungeon until he went mad and died. Rizzio , possibly the queens lover and possibly father of James, was stabbed 50 odd times in front of the queen when she was 7 months pregnant with a view to inducing a miscarriage. Darnley was strangled in the garden whilst trying to escape his house which was in the process of being blown up. The list of suspects included the Queen who was already bonking Bothwell and married him 3 months later. Elizabeth had more spies and nobles in her pocket than you could shake a stick at.
Makes GOT seem a bit tame in places. And most the actors were young enough to think the EU is a good idea. Bothwell was only 21 when he died. Mary came south to seek refuge from Elizabeth (proving her stupidity beyond doubt)!when she was 24.
Our history is more exciting than most of its teachers want to let on.0 -
No, like, apparently, some here, they'll look back to the equivalent of a "sunny" time of their youth. In my case I was young and strong, the world was my hamster and 33% of the world map was coloured red.Richard_Tyndall said:
And in their future the chances are they will change their views and then wish that Leave had won.OldKingCole said:
That's why I'm determined to Remain. My children and grandchildren (those old enough to have an opinion) are solidly for Remain.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
So even if I wasn't for Remain anyway I owe it to them to vote Remain. It's their future.
As we get older clearly we get more sensible.
Except that it wasn't that good in many respects.0 -
Kate Andrews, of the Institute of Economic Affairs, says experience in other countries has shown "a sugar tax is incredibly regressive".
She tells the BBC: "It's disproportionately going to affect the people at the bottom, people who are poor on low incomes."0 -
I am afraid you are in denial. All the polling evidence is that as people get older they get less and less enamored of the EU. Well, the sensible ones anyway.OldKingCole said:
No, like, apparently, some here, they'll look back to the equivalent of a "sunny" time of their youth. In my case I was young and strong, the world was my hamster and 33% of the world map was coloured red.Richard_Tyndall said:
And in their future the chances are they will change their views and then wish that Leave had won.OldKingCole said:
That's why I'm determined to Remain. My children and grandchildren (those old enough to have an opinion) are solidly for Remain.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
So even if I wasn't for Remain anyway I owe it to them to vote Remain. It's their future.
As we get older clearly we get more sensible.
Except that it wasn't that good in many respects.0 -
It's what Horrible Histories based its success on.DavidL said:
Our history is more exciting than most of its teachers want to let on.Sean_F said:
I believe Melisandre will revive Jon by means of necrophilia.DavidL said:
Evening. Is your icon John Snow really going to be alive and a player? I vaguely recall muttering I would not read the next book if he wasn't. Too few Starks left.MikeK said:
Me too. Enough of this faux gasping at a mediocre budget. Bring on Game of Thrones and let the Winds of Winter rage.DavidL said:
So looking forward to GOT coming back.Casino_Royale said:
Winter is coming for the pensioners though, from Project Fear.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
Look out for pensions, saga holidays, werthers originals, bus passes and phone calls from your grandchildren all being under existential threat if we Leave.
One can only hope the older generation are made of strong stuff.
Oh, and good evening to all.
Winter is coming has entered the language in a way that is truly remarkable. Mind you half of the Godfather script did the same.
0 -
To be fair, it looks like Deutsche Bank never made anywhere near as much money as they said they did. Which suggests their tax avoidance was surprisingly prescient.Richard_Tyndall said:Ouch.
Sajid Javid just got mauled on C4 news over his EU U-turn and what he knew about tax avoidance at Deutsche Bank.0 -
Well yes - and good!FrancisUrquhart said:Kate Andrews, of the Institute of Economic Affairs, says experience in other countries has shown "a sugar tax is incredibly regressive".
She tells the BBC: "It's disproportionately going to affect the people at the bottom, people who are poor on low incomes."
An anti-malarial drug is regressive - it'll impact people that live near swamps most.
Stupid person. And for once it's not me.0 -
I still do. What god?MP_SE said:
I remember when I used to dream of a United States of Europe... Thank God I grew up.OldKingCole said:
That's why I'm determined to Remain. My children and grandchildren (those old enough to have an opinion) are solidly for Remain.AndyJS said:
Exactly what I said a few days ago. Leave must be very happy to be ahead with the people who can be relied upon to turn up at the polling stations.TheScreamingEagles said:Basically that ICM has
75 year old plus voting to Leave by 55% to 33%
65-74 year olds voting to Leave by 54% to 36%
Has 18-24 year olds voting to Remain by 58% to 25%
and 25-34 year olds voting to Remain by 60% to 25%
Very risky for Remain to be relying on the All Young Dudes and Dudettes
So even if I wasn't for Remain anyway I owe it to them to vote Remain. It's their future.0
