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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: UKIP supporters make up the biggest group

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited March 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: UKIP supporters make up the biggest group of those wanting OUT, LAB ones of those wanting to stay

I don’t think this form of analysis has been done so far in the campaign – where are the supporters of either side coming from. What surprised me was that the Tory general election support is almost totally split between the two sides and is not the dominant segment in either.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Fascinating
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Grrr ..... missed out!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    FPT

    ''If you want zero risk you'd just stick your money in a bank account. Carefully judged risks are the way forward.''

    Unless of course its your ECB account.....ahem.....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    And which of those two groups is more likely to turn up on the day?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Afternoon all.

    Interesting stats. - Is that 25% of Lib Dems wishing to Leave? Strikes me as a high figure.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2016
    "HOLD THE DATE. The next PB London gathering will be on Friday April 2nd at the Shooting Star pub near Liverpool Street station. Details to follow"

    April 2nd is a Saturday...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Mike.

    The 2nd of April is a Saturday
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The bottom line is that we do not make things people want to buy. Our services are lapped up, as is the output from our creative industries. We are brilliant at both and we reap the rewards. But in too many other areas we either offer second best or nothing at all.

    Rubbish. VW is just the tip of the iceberg with European companies. They cheated to meet US emissions standards, do you not think JLR lost business because of that, BMW and Mercedes are running massive damage control operations trying to assure everyone that, yes please believe it was just VW, please don't look at us. Our problem is that we don't play dirty. Look at the dodgy fighter jet sales to India by Dassault and our dodgy fighter jet sales to Saudi Arabia, which country opened an investigation into possible corruption and bribery, not France that's for sure. Which nations completely ignore state aid rules about their energy markets and rail companies? Not Britain.

    We play by the rules and have been continually f***** by the countries who don't.
    I'm not sure an 'our companies aren't corrupt enough' argument is entirely satisfactory, but if I did I might point to BAe, GSK, Rolls Royce, Standard Chartered, HSBC, BP, Royal Mail, and many others, as evidence on the other side.
    And we investigate them. European nations are too happy to turn a blind eye.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike.

    The 2nd of April is a Saturday

    It's the new independent UK calendar
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

    18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
    65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
    75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Our Ken, living down to expectations.
    https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/708219554187616256
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    AndyJS said:

    These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

    18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
    65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
    75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

    Ban the young!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    taffys said:

    FPT

    ''If you want zero risk you'd just stick your money in a bank account. Carefully judged risks are the way forward.''

    Unless of course its your ECB account.....ahem.....

    nah, the ECB is pretty close to zero risk. But they will charge you for the service they provide.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike.

    The 2nd of April is a Saturday

    It's the new independent UK calendar
    Perhaps it is an elaborate April Fools' Day prank by Mike
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike.

    The 2nd of April is a Saturday

    It's the new independent UK calendar
    Have you looked at that several hundred page review of the risks of Brexit that I sent you?

    Or you can just carry on saying that no one on the Leave side is analysing things.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Carson lauding the unknown cerebral Trump...
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike.

    The 2nd of April is a Saturday

    It's the new independent UK calendar
    Speaking of that, I was wondering whether we might name an aircraft carrier "23rd of June".
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Charles said:

    Have you looked at that several hundred page review of the risks of Brexit that I sent you?

    Or you can just carry on saying that no one on the Leave side is analysing things.

    I didn't say no-one on the Leave side is analysing things. I said, perfectly accurately, that the Leave case is made less credible because many on the Leave side deny the risks, or belittle them, or - most counter-productive of all - impugn the integrity of those who point them out.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump: Ben is going to have a big, big part in the campaign... Maybe he doesn't even know how big!
  • eekeek Posts: 27,939
    Friday April 1st I take it....
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump: Ben rang me last night. He didn't want anything. He just wanted to be part of it...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    MaxPB said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The bottom line is that we do not make things people want to buy. Our services are lapped up, as is the output from our creative industries. We are brilliant at both and we reap the rewards. But in too many other areas we either offer second best or nothing at all.

    Rubbish. VW is just the tip of the iceberg with European companies. They cheated to meet US emissions standards, do you not think JLR lost business because of that, BMW and Mercedes are running massive damage control operations trying to assure everyone that, yes please believe it was just VW, please don't look at us. Our problem is that we don't play dirty. Look at the dodgy fighter jet sales to India by Dassault and our dodgy fighter jet sales to Saudi Arabia, which country opened an investigation into possible corruption and bribery, not France that's for sure. Which nations completely ignore state aid rules about their energy markets and rail companies? Not Britain.

    We play by the rules and have been continually f***** by the countries who don't.
    I'm not sure an 'our companies aren't corrupt enough' argument is entirely satisfactory, but if I did I might point to BAe, GSK, Rolls Royce, Standard Chartered, HSBC, BP, Royal Mail, and many others, as evidence on the other side.
    And we investigate them. European nations are too happy to turn a blind eye.
    I think it would be fairer to say that France and Italy turn blind eyes. The Germans have been a lot more aggressive than us at actually jailing company managements who engaged in corrupt practices.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Charles said:

    taffys said:

    FPT

    ''If you want zero risk you'd just stick your money in a bank account. Carefully judged risks are the way forward.''

    Unless of course its your ECB account.....ahem.....

    nah, the ECB is pretty close to zero risk. But they will charge you for the service they provide.
    Well i suppose there is no risk.

    It is certain you will lose money.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The bottom line is that we do not make things people want to buy. Our services are lapped up, as is the output from our creative industries. We are brilliant at both and we reap the rewards. But in too many other areas we either offer second best or nothing at all.

    Rubbish. VW is just the tip of the iceberg with European companies. They cheated to meet US emissions standards, do you not think JLR lost business because of that, BMW and Mercedes are running massive damage control operations trying to assure everyone that, yes please believe it was just VW, please don't look at us. Our problem is that we don't play dirty. Look at the dodgy fighter jet sales to India by Dassault and our dodgy fighter jet sales to Saudi Arabia, which country opened an investigation into possible corruption and bribery, not France that's for sure. Which nations completely ignore state aid rules about their energy markets and rail companies? Not Britain.

    We play by the rules and have been continually f***** by the countries who don't.
    I'm not sure an 'our companies aren't corrupt enough' argument is entirely satisfactory, but if I did I might point to BAe, GSK, Rolls Royce, Standard Chartered, HSBC, BP, Royal Mail, and many others, as evidence on the other side.
    And we investigate them. European nations are too happy to turn a blind eye.
    I think it would be fairer to say that France and Italy turn blind eyes. The Germans have been a lot more aggressive than us at actually jailing company managements who engaged in corrupt practices.
    I'm reserving judgement until we see what attitude they take towards VW, so far it seems to be a state of denial that they even did anything wrong. They started well with Siemens but it seems to have petered out.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump 9% over Cruz in Maryland.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/md/maryland_republican_presidential_primary-4313.html

    That was one of the ones I had a bit of doubt over...
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Guido

    http://order-order.com/2016/03/11/labour-mp-pulls-out-of-segregated-extremism-rally/
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

    18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
    65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
    75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

    If those splits are even close to being right (and I am sceptical of any splits of this sort), Remain are in serious trouble,
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    RodCrosby said:

    Trump: Ben is going to have a big, big part in the campaign... Maybe he doesn't even know how big!

    That's a very Trump-like statement.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    The bottom line is that we do not make things people want to buy. Our services are lapped up, as is the output from our creative industries. We are brilliant at both and we reap the rewards. But in too many other areas we either offer second best or nothing at all.

    Rubbish. VW is just the tip of the iceberg with European companies. They cheated to meet US emissions standards, do you not think JLR lost business because of that, BMW and Mercedes are running massive damage control operations trying to assure everyone that, yes please believe it was just VW, please don't look at us. Our problem is that we don't play dirty. Look at the dodgy fighter jet sales to India by Dassault and our dodgy fighter jet sales to Saudi Arabia, which country opened an investigation into possible corruption and bribery, not France that's for sure. Which nations completely ignore state aid rules about their energy markets and rail companies? Not Britain.

    We play by the rules and have been continually f***** by the countries who don't.
    I'm not sure an 'our companies aren't corrupt enough' argument is entirely satisfactory, but if I did I might point to BAe, GSK, Rolls Royce, Standard Chartered, HSBC, BP, Royal Mail, and many others, as evidence on the other side.
    And we investigate them. European nations are too happy to turn a blind eye.
    I think it would be fairer to say that France and Italy turn blind eyes. The Germans have been a lot more aggressive than us at actually jailing company managements who engaged in corrupt practices.
    I'm reserving judgement until we see what attitude they take towards VW, so far it seems to be a state of denial that they even did anything wrong. They started well with Siemens but it seems to have petered out.
    Yes, I was thinking of bribery, but you're right re VW.
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    Chuka Umunna, who I previously liked, claims Canada deal does not cover services. The EU's own page on the thing states outright that it will "open-up services market"

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/index_en.htm

    I've seen other folk claim it doesn't cover financial services. Chapter 13 is titled "financial services".

    Do leading Remain lights not bother to learn basic facts before speaking to media or are they just lying through their teeth??
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I expect the Tory vote to swing to Dave but will Labour get out the vote? That is the crucial question.

    Corbyn and his general crappiness plus his general nonchalant attitude to the referendum could win this for Leave. Would if that would get the knives out for him if it did?

    Plus the referendum is likely to happen after Labour is expected to lose hundreds more Councillors. Will there be Labour infighting during the campaign then? Will the loss of Councillors and activists play a role in getting out the vote?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    At what point do the GOP decide they're better-off going with the flow?

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Charles said:

    Have you looked at that several hundred page review of the risks of Brexit that I sent you?

    Or you can just carry on saying that no one on the Leave side is analysing things.

    I didn't say no-one on the Leave side is analysing things. I said, perfectly accurately, that the Leave case is made less credible because many on the Leave side deny the risks, or belittle them, or - most counter-productive of all - impugn the integrity of those who point them out.
    While the Remain side, yourself included, deny the risks [of remaining] or belittle them etc
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I expect the Tory vote to swing to Dave but will Labour get out the vote? That is the crucial question.

    Corbyn and his general crappiness plus his general nonchalant attitude to the referendum could win this for Leave. Would if that would get the knives out for him if it did?

    Plus the referendum is likely to happen after Labour is expected to lose hundreds more Councillors. Will there be Labour infighting during the campaign then? Will the loss of Councillors and activists play a role in getting out the vote?

    Who knows?

    I suspect that this referendum will be won or lost depending on whether we see one or more of the following events:

    1. Eurogeddon Part II
    2. A big increase in migrant flows
    3. A terrorist incident

    If nothing happens, then in all likelihood Remain wins.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    Chuka Umunna, who I previously liked, claims Canada deal does not cover services. The EU's own page on the thing states outright that it will "open-up services market"

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/index_en.htm

    I've seen other folk claim it doesn't cover financial services. Chapter 13 is titled "financial services".

    Do leading Remain lights not bother to learn basic facts before speaking to media or are they just lying through their teeth??

    Not sure what he said, but it would be accurate to say that under the deal with the EU - if it is ever actually implemented - Canada will have less access to the single market than we have currently.

  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Whilst the Con vote for Remain exceeds the Con vote for Leave,Leave's chances of success are remote.On Pareto's principle,it's 80-20 for Remain.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    edited March 2016
    AndyJS said:

    These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

    18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
    65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
    75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

    Interesting that while 65-74's are quite strongly for Leave, my age group, who remember WWII, are less negative about the EU.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Wanderer said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mike.

    The 2nd of April is a Saturday

    It's the new independent UK calendar
    Speaking of that, I was wondering whether we might name an aircraft carrier "23rd of June".
    Good morning. In less than an hour, activists from here will join others from around the Continent. And you will be launching the largest Referendum Campaign in the history of mankind. "Mankind." That word should have new meaning for all of us today. We can't be consumed by our petty differences anymore. We will be united in our common interests. Perhaps it's fate that today is the 23rd of June, and you will once again be fighting for our freedom... Not from tyranny, oppression, or persecution... but from annihilation. We are fighting for our right to live. To exist. And should we win the day, the 23rd of June will no longer be known as British holiday, but as the day Europe declared in one voice: "We will not go quietly into the night!" We will not vanish without a fight! We're going to live on! We're going to survive! Today we celebrate our Independence Day!

    [crowd cheers!!!!!]
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Fascinating

    It's polling, Jim, but not as we know it!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    "HOLD THE DATE. The next PB London gathering will be on Friday April 2nd at the Shooting Star pub near Liverpool Street station. Details to follow"

    April 2nd is a Saturday...

    Friday? Cool, will be a bit easier for me to attend than a Thursday
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Carson sticks Trump over the line, he had a VERY loyal ~ 6% or so right till the end.

    YUUUUUUUUUGE
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    Chuka Umunna, who I previously liked, claims Canada deal does not cover services. The EU's own page on the thing states outright that it will "open-up services market"

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/index_en.htm

    I've seen other folk claim it doesn't cover financial services. Chapter 13 is titled "financial services".

    Do leading Remain lights not bother to learn basic facts before speaking to media or are they just lying through their teeth??

    As I understand it, the CETA deal doesn't liberalise things much compared with the existing GATS agreements on financial services.

    See this paper:

    https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/cigi_paper_no.91_web.pdf

    But of course, it is an article of faith that anyone who points this out must be lying.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2016
    runnymede said:

    These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

    18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
    65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
    75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

    If those splits are even close to being right (and I am sceptical of any splits of this sort), Remain are in serious trouble,

    As you imply, for Remain to rely on the dodgy turnout record of the under 35s isn't a great position to be in.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    It is pretty pointless looking at these figures from one isolated online poll . Look and compare the equivalent figures with a telephone poll from Comres or Ipsos Mori and they paint a very different picture both by party and age splits .
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Charles said:

    Have you looked at that several hundred page review of the risks of Brexit that I sent you?

    Or you can just carry on saying that no one on the Leave side is analysing things.

    I didn't say no-one on the Leave side is analysing things. I said, perfectly accurately, that the Leave case is made less credible because many on the Leave side deny the risks, or belittle them, or - most counter-productive of all - impugn the integrity of those who point them out.
    The simple facts are as follows:

    Leave case is made less credible because many on the Leave side deny the risks
    or
    Remain case is made less credible because many on the Remain side deny the risks

    is an equally true statement, unless you know what shape the EU has in 10 years time.

    I would suggest that it is by no means obvious that the risks of leaving are greater than the risks of staying.

    Equally the opportunities gained from leaving are likely to be equal to or greater than those of staying.

    I am still of the opinion that regardless of intentions, treaties, agreements or any other kind of deal struck with the EU or Heads of Stae that in the medium term any action that is needed to secure and strengthen the Euro Zone will be done. That will (quite rightly) happen regardless of the impact on the few semi detached non Euro members. Our interests will be secondary and of no import to the majority who are Euro members. Continuation and consolidation of the Euro project will trump our interests at every turn. That is a risk to us, a very big risk, with no obvious upside to UK.

    I consider that to be a greater risk to the UK than any risk that has been realistically (not all the scare stories) identified by Remain should we have the temerity to vote Out.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    OldKingCole said:

    AndyJS said:

    These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

    18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
    65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
    75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

    Interesting that while 65-74's are quite strongly for Leave, my age group, who remember WWII, are less negative about the EU.
    I think senility tends to be more prevalent in the over 75 group...
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    CNN 'poll of polls' says Trump has slight lead in Ohio

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2585553/
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Note. The PB gathering is on Friday April 8th. Sorry for earlier typo.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    RodCrosby said:

    Trump 9% over Cruz in Maryland.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/md/maryland_republican_presidential_primary-4313.html

    That was one of the ones I had a bit of doubt over...

    Puts my £8 on Rubio in DC in trouble maybe :p
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    Chuka Umunna, who I previously liked, claims Canada deal does not cover services. The EU's own page on the thing states outright that it will "open-up services market"

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/index_en.htm

    I've seen other folk claim it doesn't cover financial services. Chapter 13 is titled "financial services".

    Do leading Remain lights not bother to learn basic facts before speaking to media or are they just lying through their teeth??

    As I understand it, the CETA deal doesn't liberalise things much compared with the existing GATS agreements on financial services.

    See this paper:

    https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/cigi_paper_no.91_web.pdf

    But of course, it is an article of faith that anyone who points this out must be lying.
    But he didn't say that, did he? If he had made that argument we could have an honest discussion about it. He said it "did not cover services". Which is just completely and obviously untrue.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    #UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    rcs1000 said:

    OldKingCole said:

    AndyJS said:

    These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

    18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
    65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
    75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

    Interesting that while 65-74's are quite strongly for Leave, my age group, who remember WWII, are less negative about the EU.
    I think senility tends to be more prevalent in the over 75 group...
    Why would it be senile to prefer Remain?
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Plato_Says said:

    #UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

    Are they fleeing from war torn Syria? Or just following up on Merkel's invite to a free party paid for by everyone in the EU?
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    And by the way, Richard, the paper you just linked to says "one of its main components is a chapter that seeks to liberalize trade and investment in financial services between Canada and the European Union".

    So its actually the opposite of the Remain campaign's claim it doesn't cover financial services. It was actually a main component.

    Maybe they're not lying. They could just not know what they're talking about on the basic issues.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,895
    Boris, how does he get away with it?
    if Britain left the EU, “we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by Brussels”.
    "no downsides from leaving the EU"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Plato_Says said:

    #UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

    Shocked Gambia is number two - it's only got 1.8m people in total.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Plato_Says said:

    #UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

    Syria isn't even in the top ten.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Trump 9% over Cruz in Maryland.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/md/maryland_republican_presidential_primary-4313.html

    That was one of the ones I had a bit of doubt over...

    Puts my £8 on Rubio in DC in trouble maybe :p
    Look in the mirror Pulps. You're one of those people prepared to back Rubio on the back of repeatedly losing.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    rcs1000 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    #UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

    Shocked Gambia is number two - it's only got 1.8m people in total.
    It hasn't that many any more!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    rcs1000 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    #UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

    Shocked Gambia is number two - it's only got 1.8m people in total.
    It is, however, a very young population.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    But he didn't say that, did he? If he had made that argument we could have an honest discussion about it. He said it "did not cover services". Which is just completely and obviously untrue.

    So he made a mistake, or was simplifying.

    It's these accusations of lying which I find completely counter-productive. It's really demeaning of the Leave side (to be fair, not often you), and personally I find it a massive turn-off, making it hard to take the Leave side seriously even when they might have a point. Similarly, the claims that, for example, the G20 finance ministers have all been nobbled by Osborne just look utterly bonkers. Such personal attacks play well with the hardcore base of Leavers, but won't impress anyone else.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Philip_Thompson said:

    I expect the Tory vote to swing to Dave but will Labour get out the vote? That is the crucial question.

    Corbyn and his general crappiness plus his general nonchalant attitude to the referendum could win this for Leave. Would if that would get the knives out for him if it did?

    Plus the referendum is likely to happen after Labour is expected to lose hundreds more Councillors. Will there be Labour infighting during the campaign then? Will the loss of Councillors and activists play a role in getting out the vote?

    Labour activists that I know seem pretty committed. A Leave campaign led by Farage, IDS and George Galloway is a pretty strong motivator for Labour Remain.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    And by the way, Richard, the paper you just linked to says "one of its main components is a chapter that seeks to liberalize trade and investment in financial services between Canada and the European Union".

    So its actually the opposite of the Remain campaign's claim it doesn't cover financial services. It was actually a main component.

    Maybe they're not lying. They could just not know what they're talking about on the basic issues.

    The basic issue is that under the terms of the Canadian agreement the UK would be in a far less advantageous trading position with the EU than it is now. How is this good for the UK?

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited March 2016
    MarkSenior said:

    It is pretty pointless looking at these figures from one isolated online poll . Look and compare the equivalent figures with a telephone poll from Comres or Ipsos Mori and they paint a very different picture both by party and age splits .

    Last Ipsos Mori poll had by party

    Con Stay 52% Leave 36%
    Lab Stay 72% Leave 17%
    LDem Stay 60% Leave 29%
    UKIP Stay 2% Leave 97%

    and by age group

    18-34 Stay 64% Leave 23%
    35-54 Stay 49% Leave 39%
    55plus Stay 41% Leave 45%
    18-24 Stay 56% Leave 25%
    25-34 Stay 70% Leave 22%
    35-44 Stay 61% Leave 28%
    45-54 Stay 38% Leave 50%
    55-64 Stay 36% Leave 48%
    65 plus Stay 44% Leave 42%
    75 plus Stay 45% Leave 41%

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Plato_Says said:

    #UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

    The underlying data is here:

    http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/country.php?id=105

    A few factoids:
    - 79% of arrivals are men
    - February was the first month that arrivals were down year-over-year
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    Richard's link is a great resource. It also makes clear that Canada sucessfully negotiated to make sure there can be no discrimination for EU financial companies over Canadian ones. So the principle of non-discrimination in Cameron's deal, the bit that made Richard support Remain, is also available to Canada outside the EU.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    "HOLD THE DATE. The next PB London gathering will be on Friday April 2nd at the Shooting Star pub near Liverpool Street station. Details to follow"

    April 2nd is a Saturday...

    Note that the year was not specified ;)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    RobD said:

    Plato_Says said:

    #UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

    Syria isn't even in the top ten.
    To be fair, that's because that's the Italian route into Europe, which accounts for only about 5-10% of the total.

    Here's the entire Med link: http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited March 2016
    SouthamObserver said:

    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    And by the way, Richard, the paper you just linked to says "one of its main components is a chapter that seeks to liberalize trade and investment in financial services between Canada and the European Union".

    So its actually the opposite of the Remain campaign's claim it doesn't cover financial services. It was actually a main component.

    Maybe they're not lying. They could just not know what they're talking about on the basic issues.

    The basic issue is that under the terms of the Canadian agreement the UK would be in a far less advantageous trading position with the EU than it is now. How is this good for the UK?

    Does Norfolk's post down thread suggest that this isn't the case?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Trump 9% over Cruz in Maryland.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/md/maryland_republican_presidential_primary-4313.html

    That was one of the ones I had a bit of doubt over...

    Puts my £8 on Rubio in DC in trouble maybe :p
    Look in the mirror Pulps. You're one of those people prepared to back Rubio on the back of repeatedly losing.
    I've only backed him in DC !
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    Richard's link is a great resource. It also makes clear that Canada sucessfully negotiated to make sure there can be no discrimination for EU financial companies over Canadian ones. So the principle of non-discrimination in Cameron's deal, the bit that made Richard support Remain, is also available to Canada outside the EU.

    No. The non-discrimination rule in Cameron's deal referred to the operation and regulations of the Single Market. You are cherry-picking phrases out of context and applying them to unrelated areas.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited March 2016
    Ben Carson confirms backing for Donald Trump for US presidency

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35787356

    Carson sees a winner here. He must have been in touch with Ladbrokes/Shadsy ;)
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    OldKingCole said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OldKingCole said:

    AndyJS said:

    These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

    18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
    65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
    75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

    Interesting that while 65-74's are quite strongly for Leave, my age group, who remember WWII, are less negative about the EU.
    I think senility tends to be more prevalent in the over 75 group...
    Why would it be senile to prefer Remain?
    QTWTAIY
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    Richard's link is a great resource. It also makes clear that Canada sucessfully negotiated to make sure there can be no discrimination for EU financial companies over Canadian ones. So the principle of non-discrimination in Cameron's deal, the bit that made Richard support Remain, is also available to Canada outside the EU.

    No. The non-discrimination rule in Cameron's deal referred to the operation and regulations of the Single Market. You are cherry-picking phrases out of context and applying them to unrelated areas.
    No, you're wrong. The specific worry mentioned was regulation to require Euro denominated trades to have to be done by companies based in the Eurozone. Non-discrimination in CETA makes clear this could not be done under CETA without giving same rights to Canadian based firms.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    I thought backing Rubio in DC was like backing Corbyn in Islington !

    Wonder if the Maryland poll affects my chances there...
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    SouthamObserver said:

    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    And by the way, Richard, the paper you just linked to says "one of its main components is a chapter that seeks to liberalize trade and investment in financial services between Canada and the European Union".

    So its actually the opposite of the Remain campaign's claim it doesn't cover financial services. It was actually a main component.

    Maybe they're not lying. They could just not know what they're talking about on the basic issues.

    The basic issue is that under the terms of the Canadian agreement the UK would be in a far less advantageous trading position with the EU than it is now. How is this good for the UK?

    Your assessment of the basic issue is just wrong. Canada's position with respect to the EU is 95% as good as the UK's with only a handful of differences. And that's more than made up for by the fact it can sign trade deals elsewhere and not have the Eurozone make up new rules on Canada's economy at will.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    OldKingCole said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OldKingCole said:

    AndyJS said:

    These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

    18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
    35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
    65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
    75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

    Interesting that while 65-74's are quite strongly for Leave, my age group, who remember WWII, are less negative about the EU.
    I think senility tends to be more prevalent in the over 75 group...
    Why would it be senile to prefer Remain?
    QTWTAIY
    :-)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Plato_Says said:

    #UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

    Syria isn't even in the top ten.
    To be fair, that's because that's the Italian route into Europe, which accounts for only about 5-10% of the total.

    Here's the entire Med link: http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php
    Right, I was confused by the "top ten nationalities represent X% of sea arrivals". Thought that meant all sea arrivals.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MarkSenior said:


    MarkSenior said:

    It is pretty pointless looking at these figures from one isolated online poll . Look and compare the equivalent figures with a telephone poll from Comres or Ipsos Mori and they paint a very different picture both by party and age splits .

    Last Ipsos Mori poll had by party

    Con Stay 52% Leave 36%
    Lab Stay 72% Leave 17%
    LDem Stay 60% Leave 29%
    UKIP Stay 2% Leave 97%

    and by age group

    18-34 Stay 64% Leave 23%
    35-54 Stay 49% Leave 39%
    55plus Stay 41% Leave 45%
    18-24 Stay 56% Leave 25%
    25-34 Stay 70% Leave 22%
    35-44 Stay 61% Leave 28%
    45-54 Stay 38% Leave 50%
    55-64 Stay 36% Leave 48%
    65 plus Stay 44% Leave 42%
    75 plus Stay 45% Leave 41%

    The lib dem stat's of 29% for leave,not far from Tories numbers,it seems we still have a liberal and especially democratic voice in the lib Dems.
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    But he didn't say that, did he? If he had made that argument we could have an honest discussion about it. He said it "did not cover services". Which is just completely and obviously untrue.

    So he made a mistake, or was simplifying.

    It's these accusations of lying which I find completely counter-productive. It's really demeaning of the Leave side (to be fair, not often you), and personally I find it a massive turn-off, making it hard to take the Leave side seriously even when they might have a point. Similarly, the claims that, for example, the G20 finance ministers have all been nobbled by Osborne just look utterly bonkers. Such personal attacks play well with the hardcore base of Leavers, but won't impress anyone else.
    It wasn't a mistake. Its not like he knew and accidentally said the wrong thing. He either just didn't know the facts (most likely in my opinion) on a basic topic or he was lying (less likely). Nor was it simplifying, given reality was direct opposite of his claim: services are a main component of CETA.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Plato_Says said:

    #UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

    Syria isn't even in the top ten.
    To be fair, that's because that's the Italian route into Europe, which accounts for only about 5-10% of the total.

    Here's the entire Med link: http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php
    Also on that link, the onward movements page suggest that they all end up in Germany?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    And by the way, Richard, the paper you just linked to says "one of its main components is a chapter that seeks to liberalize trade and investment in financial services between Canada and the European Union".

    So its actually the opposite of the Remain campaign's claim it doesn't cover financial services. It was actually a main component.

    Maybe they're not lying. They could just not know what they're talking about on the basic issues.

    The basic issue is that under the terms of the Canadian agreement the UK would be in a far less advantageous trading position with the EU than it is now. How is this good for the UK?

    Your assessment of the basic issue is just wrong. Canada's position with respect to the EU is 95% as good as the UK's with only a handful of differences. And that's more than made up for by the fact it can sign trade deals elsewhere and not have the Eurozone make up new rules on Canada's economy at will.
    TBH, to a convinced Remainer, that’s a good economic argument. Doesn’t, of course, cover the desirability of encouraging close co-operation with our neighbours, and encouraging young people to think of themselves as Europeans.
    Whci, in my experience many of them do. Although, of course how many people does one individual know?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    These figures are why Cameron leading for Remain is crucial (exacerbated by the fact he's a cut above every other leader in the UK now, excepting Sturgeon [but the SNP are solidly for Remain]).
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2016
    MarkSenior said:


    MarkSenior said:

    It is pretty pointless looking at these figures from one isolated online poll . Look and compare the equivalent figures with a telephone poll from Comres or Ipsos Mori and they paint a very different picture both by party and age splits .

    Last Ipsos Mori poll had by party

    Con Stay 52% Leave 36%
    Lab Stay 72% Leave 17%
    LDem Stay 60% Leave 29%
    UKIP Stay 2% Leave 97%

    and by age group

    18-34 Stay 64% Leave 23%
    35-54 Stay 49% Leave 39%
    55plus Stay 41% Leave 45%
    18-24 Stay 56% Leave 25%
    25-34 Stay 70% Leave 22%
    35-44 Stay 61% Leave 28%
    45-54 Stay 38% Leave 50%
    55-64 Stay 36% Leave 48%
    65 plus Stay 44% Leave 42%
    75 plus Stay 45% Leave 41%

    Not significantly different to ICM except for the 35-44 category and Con support.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    But he didn't say that, did he? If he had made that argument we could have an honest discussion about it. He said it "did not cover services". Which is just completely and obviously untrue.

    So he made a mistake, or was simplifying.

    It's these accusations of lying which I find completely counter-productive. It's really demeaning of the Leave side (to be fair, not often you), and personally I find it a massive turn-off, making it hard to take the Leave side seriously even when they might have a point. Similarly, the claims that, for example, the G20 finance ministers have all been nobbled by Osborne just look utterly bonkers. Such personal attacks play well with the hardcore base of Leavers, but won't impress anyone else.
    It wasn't a mistake. Its not like he knew and accidentally said the wrong thing. He either just didn't know the facts (most likely in my opinion) on a basic topic or he was lying (less likely). Nor was it simplifying, given reality was direct opposite of his claim: services are a main component of CETA.
    Accusing people of lying if they do not share a viewpoint does the referendum no favours. The accusation can equally apply to many on the each side and just wearies voters. Independent facts are needed from experts who do not have an agenda
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    Tykejohnno said:

    MarkSenior said:


    MarkSenior said:

    It is pretty pointless looking at these figures from one isolated online poll . Look and compare the equivalent figures with a telephone poll from Comres or Ipsos Mori and they paint a very different picture both by party and age splits .

    Last Ipsos Mori poll had by party

    Con Stay 52% Leave 36%
    Lab Stay 72% Leave 17%
    LDem Stay 60% Leave 29%
    UKIP Stay 2% Leave 97%

    and by age group

    18-34 Stay 64% Leave 23%
    35-54 Stay 49% Leave 39%
    55plus Stay 41% Leave 45%
    18-24 Stay 56% Leave 25%
    25-34 Stay 70% Leave 22%
    35-44 Stay 61% Leave 28%
    45-54 Stay 38% Leave 50%
    55-64 Stay 36% Leave 48%
    65 plus Stay 44% Leave 42%
    75 plus Stay 45% Leave 41%

    The lib dem stat's of 29% for leave,not far from Tories numbers,it seems we still have a liberal and especially democratic voice in the lib Dems.
    The residual Liberal party is for Leave, AIUI. Corn Laws stuff!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    8 April is looking good for me at present. I'll come wearing armour plating.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Trump 9% over Cruz in Maryland.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/md/maryland_republican_presidential_primary-4313.html

    That was one of the ones I had a bit of doubt over...

    Puts my £8 on Rubio in DC in trouble maybe :p
    Look in the mirror Pulps. You're one of those people prepared to back Rubio on the back of repeatedly losing.
    I've only backed him in DC !
    That's how it starts...
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    rcs1000 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I expect the Tory vote to swing to Dave but will Labour get out the vote? That is the crucial question.

    Corbyn and his general crappiness plus his general nonchalant attitude to the referendum could win this for Leave. Would if that would get the knives out for him if it did?

    Plus the referendum is likely to happen after Labour is expected to lose hundreds more Councillors. Will there be Labour infighting during the campaign then? Will the loss of Councillors and activists play a role in getting out the vote?

    Who knows?

    I suspect that this referendum will be won or lost depending on whether we see one or more of the following events:

    1. Eurogeddon Part II
    2. A big increase in migrant flows
    3. A terrorist incident

    If nothing happens, then in all likelihood Remain wins.
    What would you like - a state of emergency declared in an EU country over the migrant problem?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767
    rcs1000 said:

    Plato_Says said:

    #UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

    Shocked Gambia is number two - it's only got 1.8m people in total.
    I've been on holiday in the Gambia, didn't seem too bad for Africa, but I didn't feel too comfortable lounging about in luxury in such a poor country.

    Not to mention the white 'swimming teacher' next door to the hotel where a bunch of young local boys were always hanging about, and the european middle aged guy which always had a different young local woman to dinner every night.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited March 2016
    AndyJS said:

    MarkSenior said:


    MarkSenior said:

    It is pretty pointless looking at these figures from one isolated online poll . Look and compare the equivalent figures with a telephone poll from Comres or Ipsos Mori and they paint a very different picture both by party and age splits .

    Last Ipsos Mori poll had by party

    Con Stay 52% Leave 36%
    Lab Stay 72% Leave 17%
    LDem Stay 60% Leave 29%
    UKIP Stay 2% Leave 97%

    and by age group

    18-34 Stay 64% Leave 23%
    35-54 Stay 49% Leave 39%
    55plus Stay 41% Leave 45%
    18-24 Stay 56% Leave 25%
    25-34 Stay 70% Leave 22%
    35-44 Stay 61% Leave 28%
    45-54 Stay 38% Leave 50%
    55-64 Stay 36% Leave 48%
    65 plus Stay 44% Leave 42%
    75 plus Stay 45% Leave 41%

    Not significantly different to ICM except for the 35-44 category and Con support.
    Really ??? 65 plus ICM large Remain margin , Ipsos narrow leave margin . The differences are significant and major . Don't know which is right if either are .
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    America Elects
    Another Maryland poll:

    Trump 34
    Cruz 25
    Kasich 18
    Rubio 14

    (Baltimore Sun, LV, March 4-8)
  • NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    But he didn't say that, did he? If he had made that argument we could have an honest discussion about it. He said it "did not cover services". Which is just completely and obviously untrue.

    So he made a mistake, or was simplifying.

    It's these accusations of lying which I find completely counter-productive. It's really demeaning of the Leave side (to be fair, not often you), and personally I find it a massive turn-off, making it hard to take the Leave side seriously even when they might have a point. Similarly, the claims that, for example, the G20 finance ministers have all been nobbled by Osborne just look utterly bonkers. Such personal attacks play well with the hardcore base of Leavers, but won't impress anyone else.
    It wasn't a mistake. Its not like he knew and accidentally said the wrong thing. He either just didn't know the facts (most likely in my opinion) on a basic topic or he was lying (less likely). Nor was it simplifying, given reality was direct opposite of his claim: services are a main component of CETA.
    Accusing people of lying if they do not share a viewpoint does the referendum no favours. The accusation can equally apply to many on the each side and just wearies voters. Independent facts are needed from experts who do not have an agenda
    I agree but we're not talking about viewpoints here. Whether CETA covers services or not is a matter of fact. Its like arguing that a water molecule doesn't contain hydrogen. You're either ignorant or not telling the truth. But as I said, I think Umunna just doesn't know the facts. Like a lot in the metropolitan bubble, he probably adopts the views of people around him without much thought or reading.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    House Cracka
    The Trump Effect. Massive Republican Turnout. Landslide in the making. https://t.co/XdF1SVKeQa
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I expect the Tory vote to swing to Dave but will Labour get out the vote? That is the crucial question.

    Corbyn and his general crappiness plus his general nonchalant attitude to the referendum could win this for Leave. Would if that would get the knives out for him if it did?

    Plus the referendum is likely to happen after Labour is expected to lose hundreds more Councillors. Will there be Labour infighting during the campaign then? Will the loss of Councillors and activists play a role in getting out the vote?

    Who knows?

    I suspect that this referendum will be won or lost depending on whether we see one or more of the following events:

    1. Eurogeddon Part II
    2. A big increase in migrant flows
    3. A terrorist incident

    If nothing happens, then in all likelihood Remain wins.
    What would you like - a state of emergency declared in an EU country over the migrant problem?
    I don't want any human misery. I am merely pointing out that Leave will benefit from disruptions.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    NorfolkTilIDie said:

    But he didn't say that, did he? If he had made that argument we could have an honest discussion about it. He said it "did not cover services". Which is just completely and obviously untrue.

    the claims that, for example, the G20 finance ministers have all been nobbled by Osborne just look utterly bonkers.
    To say that the G20 finance ministers have been nobbled by GO or are acting as his stooges etc is a straw man argument.

    They have been asked to make some sympathetic noises to help a fellow world leader with his little domestic difficulty and are obliging him.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Plato_Says said:

    House Cracka
    The Trump Effect. Massive Republican Turnout. Landslide in the making. https://t.co/XdF1SVKeQa

    Voter turnout is meaningless at this stage. Turnout rose by 250% for Corbyn's election over Miliband's, does that mean he's going to have a landslide victory in the next General Election?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    Listening to David Cameron at the Welsh Conservative Conference he is repeating the same theme as all his previous speeches that we are safer economically and in security and that leaving is a huge risk to jobs and prosperity and that leave have no coherent narrative of what the UK would be like outside the EU. Andrew T Davies, the leader of the Welsh Conservatives, who is for leave seemed somewhat embarrassed as DC received a good response from the delegates on concluding his speech. Very strange times but I believe that DC will continue with the same speech throughout the campaign as it does seem very credible
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    From the Guardian (I know) "A vote on Irish reunification should be held if Britain votes to leave the EU, Martin McGuinness has said.”
    He went on the suggest that If Britain left the `EU it would be in N. Irelands interests to join the Republic.

    Every Proddy votes for Remain!
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    rcs1000 said:

    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    I expect the Tory vote to swing to Dave but will Labour get out the vote? That is the crucial question.

    Corbyn and his general crappiness plus his general nonchalant attitude to the referendum could win this for Leave. Would if that would get the knives out for him if it did?

    Plus the referendum is likely to happen after Labour is expected to lose hundreds more Councillors. Will there be Labour infighting during the campaign then? Will the loss of Councillors and activists play a role in getting out the vote?

    Who knows?

    I suspect that this referendum will be won or lost depending on whether we see one or more of the following events:

    1. Eurogeddon Part II
    2. A big increase in migrant flows
    3. A terrorist incident

    If nothing happens, then in all likelihood Remain wins.
    What would you like - a state of emergency declared in an EU country over the migrant problem?
    I don't want any human misery. I am merely pointing out that Leave will benefit from disruptions.
    Do you think it would have benefited from Paris? That seems obvious but there was a wave of sympathy for the French afterwards. Is it so simple as terrorism = +Leave?
This discussion has been closed.