I don’t think this form of analysis has been done so far in the campaign – where are the supporters of either side coming from. What surprised me was that the Tory general election support is almost totally split between the two sides and is not the dominant segment in either.
Comments
''If you want zero risk you'd just stick your money in a bank account. Carefully judged risks are the way forward.''
Unless of course its your ECB account.....ahem.....
Interesting stats. - Is that 25% of Lib Dems wishing to Leave? Strikes me as a high figure.
April 2nd is a Saturday...
The 2nd of April is a Saturday
18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%
http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/708219554187616256
Or you can just carry on saying that no one on the Leave side is analysing things.
It is certain you will lose money.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/md/maryland_republican_presidential_primary-4313.html
That was one of the ones I had a bit of doubt over...
http://order-order.com/2016/03/11/labour-mp-pulls-out-of-segregated-extremism-rally/
18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%
If those splits are even close to being right (and I am sceptical of any splits of this sort), Remain are in serious trouble,
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/index_en.htm
I've seen other folk claim it doesn't cover financial services. Chapter 13 is titled "financial services".
Do leading Remain lights not bother to learn basic facts before speaking to media or are they just lying through their teeth??
Corbyn and his general crappiness plus his general nonchalant attitude to the referendum could win this for Leave. Would if that would get the knives out for him if it did?
Plus the referendum is likely to happen after Labour is expected to lose hundreds more Councillors. Will there be Labour infighting during the campaign then? Will the loss of Councillors and activists play a role in getting out the vote?
I suspect that this referendum will be won or lost depending on whether we see one or more of the following events:
1. Eurogeddon Part II
2. A big increase in migrant flows
3. A terrorist incident
If nothing happens, then in all likelihood Remain wins.
[crowd cheers!!!!!]
YUUUUUUUUUGE
See this paper:
https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/cigi_paper_no.91_web.pdf
But of course, it is an article of faith that anyone who points this out must be lying.
Leave case is made less credible because many on the Leave side deny the risks
or
Remain case is made less credible because many on the Remain side deny the risks
is an equally true statement, unless you know what shape the EU has in 10 years time.
I would suggest that it is by no means obvious that the risks of leaving are greater than the risks of staying.
Equally the opportunities gained from leaving are likely to be equal to or greater than those of staying.
I am still of the opinion that regardless of intentions, treaties, agreements or any other kind of deal struck with the EU or Heads of Stae that in the medium term any action that is needed to secure and strengthen the Euro Zone will be done. That will (quite rightly) happen regardless of the impact on the few semi detached non Euro members. Our interests will be secondary and of no import to the majority who are Euro members. Continuation and consolidation of the Euro project will trump our interests at every turn. That is a risk to us, a very big risk, with no obvious upside to UK.
I consider that to be a greater risk to the UK than any risk that has been realistically (not all the scare stories) identified by Remain should we have the temerity to vote Out.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2585553/
Note. The PB gathering is on Friday April 8th. Sorry for earlier typo.
So its actually the opposite of the Remain campaign's claim it doesn't cover financial services. It was actually a main component.
Maybe they're not lying. They could just not know what they're talking about on the basic issues.
if Britain left the EU, “we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by Brussels”.
"no downsides from leaving the EU"
It's these accusations of lying which I find completely counter-productive. It's really demeaning of the Leave side (to be fair, not often you), and personally I find it a massive turn-off, making it hard to take the Leave side seriously even when they might have a point. Similarly, the claims that, for example, the G20 finance ministers have all been nobbled by Osborne just look utterly bonkers. Such personal attacks play well with the hardcore base of Leavers, but won't impress anyone else.
Con Stay 52% Leave 36%
Lab Stay 72% Leave 17%
LDem Stay 60% Leave 29%
UKIP Stay 2% Leave 97%
and by age group
18-34 Stay 64% Leave 23%
35-54 Stay 49% Leave 39%
55plus Stay 41% Leave 45%
18-24 Stay 56% Leave 25%
25-34 Stay 70% Leave 22%
35-44 Stay 61% Leave 28%
45-54 Stay 38% Leave 50%
55-64 Stay 36% Leave 48%
65 plus Stay 44% Leave 42%
75 plus Stay 45% Leave 41%
http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/country.php?id=105
A few factoids:
- 79% of arrivals are men
- February was the first month that arrivals were down year-over-year
Here's the entire Med link: http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35787356
Carson sees a winner here. He must have been in touch with Ladbrokes/Shadsy
Wonder if the Maryland poll affects my chances there...
Whci, in my experience many of them do. Although, of course how many people does one individual know?
These figures are why Cameron leading for Remain is crucial (exacerbated by the fact he's a cut above every other leader in the UK now, excepting Sturgeon [but the SNP are solidly for Remain]).
Not to mention the white 'swimming teacher' next door to the hotel where a bunch of young local boys were always hanging about, and the european middle aged guy which always had a different young local woman to dinner every night.
Another Maryland poll:
Trump 34
Cruz 25
Kasich 18
Rubio 14
(Baltimore Sun, LV, March 4-8)
The Trump Effect. Massive Republican Turnout. Landslide in the making. https://t.co/XdF1SVKeQa
They have been asked to make some sympathetic noises to help a fellow world leader with his little domestic difficulty and are obliging him.
He went on the suggest that If Britain left the `EU it would be in N. Irelands interests to join the Republic.
Every Proddy votes for Remain!