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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: UKIP supporters make up the biggest group of those wanting OUT, LAB ones of those wanting to stay

I don’t think this form of analysis has been done so far in the campaign – where are the supporters of either side coming from. What surprised me was that the Tory general election support is almost totally split between the two sides and is not the dominant segment in either.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Fascinating

peter_from_putney

Grrr ..... missed out!

taffys

FPT

''If you want zero risk you'd just stick your money in a bank account. Carefully judged risks are the way forward.''

Unless of course its your ECB account.....ahem.....

MaxPB

And which of those two groups is more likely to turn up on the day?

SimonStClare

Afternoon all.

Interesting stats. - Is that 25% of Lib Dems wishing to Leave? Strikes me as a high figure.

Richard_Nabavi

"HOLD THE DATE. The next PB London gathering will be on Friday April 2nd at the Shooting Star pub near Liverpool Street station. Details to follow"

April 2nd is a Saturday...

TheScreamingEagles

Mike.

The 2nd of April is a Saturday

MaxPB

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

The bottom line is that we do not make things people want to buy. Our services are lapped up, as is the output from our creative industries. We are brilliant at both and we reap the rewards. But in too many other areas we either offer second best or nothing at all.

Rubbish. VW is just the tip of the iceberg with European companies. They cheated to meet US emissions standards, do you not think JLR lost business because of that, BMW and Mercedes are running massive damage control operations trying to assure everyone that, yes please believe it was just VW, please don't look at us. Our problem is that we don't play dirty. Look at the dodgy fighter jet sales to India by Dassault and our dodgy fighter jet sales to Saudi Arabia, which country opened an investigation into possible corruption and bribery, not France that's for sure. Which nations completely ignore state aid rules about their energy markets and rail companies? Not Britain.

We play by the rules and have been continually f***** by the countries who don't.

I'm not sure an 'our companies aren't corrupt enough' argument is entirely satisfactory, but if I did I might point to BAe, GSK, Rolls Royce, Standard Chartered, HSBC, BP, Royal Mail, and many others, as evidence on the other side.

And we investigate them. European nations are too happy to turn a blind eye.

Richard_Nabavi

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike.

The 2nd of April is a Saturday

It's the new independent UK calendar

AndyJS

These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

MikeK

Our Ken, living down to expectations.
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/708219554187616256

Casino_Royale

AndyJS said:

These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

Ban the young!

Charles

taffys said:

FPT

''If you want zero risk you'd just stick your money in a bank account. Carefully judged risks are the way forward.''

Unless of course its your ECB account.....ahem.....

nah, the ECB is pretty close to zero risk. But they will charge you for the service they provide.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike.

The 2nd of April is a Saturday

It's the new independent UK calendar

Perhaps it is an elaborate April Fools' Day prank by Mike

Charles

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike.

The 2nd of April is a Saturday

It's the new independent UK calendar

Have you looked at that several hundred page review of the risks of Brexit that I sent you?

Or you can just carry on saying that no one on the Leave side is analysing things.

RodCrosby

Carson lauding the unknown cerebral Trump...

Wanderer

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike.

The 2nd of April is a Saturday

It's the new independent UK calendar

Speaking of that, I was wondering whether we might name an aircraft carrier "23rd of June".

Richard_Nabavi

Charles said:

Have you looked at that several hundred page review of the risks of Brexit that I sent you?

Or you can just carry on saying that no one on the Leave side is analysing things.

I didn't say no-one on the Leave side is analysing things. I said, perfectly accurately, that the Leave case is made less credible because many on the Leave side deny the risks, or belittle them, or - most counter-productive of all - impugn the integrity of those who point them out.

RodCrosby

Trump: Ben is going to have a big, big part in the campaign... Maybe he doesn't even know how big!

eek

Friday April 1st I take it....

RodCrosby

Trump: Ben rang me last night. He didn't want anything. He just wanted to be part of it...

rcs1000

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

The bottom line is that we do not make things people want to buy. Our services are lapped up, as is the output from our creative industries. We are brilliant at both and we reap the rewards. But in too many other areas we either offer second best or nothing at all.

Rubbish. VW is just the tip of the iceberg with European companies. They cheated to meet US emissions standards, do you not think JLR lost business because of that, BMW and Mercedes are running massive damage control operations trying to assure everyone that, yes please believe it was just VW, please don't look at us. Our problem is that we don't play dirty. Look at the dodgy fighter jet sales to India by Dassault and our dodgy fighter jet sales to Saudi Arabia, which country opened an investigation into possible corruption and bribery, not France that's for sure. Which nations completely ignore state aid rules about their energy markets and rail companies? Not Britain.

We play by the rules and have been continually f***** by the countries who don't.

I'm not sure an 'our companies aren't corrupt enough' argument is entirely satisfactory, but if I did I might point to BAe, GSK, Rolls Royce, Standard Chartered, HSBC, BP, Royal Mail, and many others, as evidence on the other side.

And we investigate them. European nations are too happy to turn a blind eye.

I think it would be fairer to say that France and Italy turn blind eyes. The Germans have been a lot more aggressive than us at actually jailing company managements who engaged in corrupt practices.

taffys

Charles said:

taffys said:

FPT

''If you want zero risk you'd just stick your money in a bank account. Carefully judged risks are the way forward.''

Unless of course its your ECB account.....ahem.....

nah, the ECB is pretty close to zero risk. But they will charge you for the service they provide.

Well i suppose there is no risk.

It is certain you will lose money.

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

The bottom line is that we do not make things people want to buy. Our services are lapped up, as is the output from our creative industries. We are brilliant at both and we reap the rewards. But in too many other areas we either offer second best or nothing at all.

Rubbish. VW is just the tip of the iceberg with European companies. They cheated to meet US emissions standards, do you not think JLR lost business because of that, BMW and Mercedes are running massive damage control operations trying to assure everyone that, yes please believe it was just VW, please don't look at us. Our problem is that we don't play dirty. Look at the dodgy fighter jet sales to India by Dassault and our dodgy fighter jet sales to Saudi Arabia, which country opened an investigation into possible corruption and bribery, not France that's for sure. Which nations completely ignore state aid rules about their energy markets and rail companies? Not Britain.

We play by the rules and have been continually f***** by the countries who don't.

I'm not sure an 'our companies aren't corrupt enough' argument is entirely satisfactory, but if I did I might point to BAe, GSK, Rolls Royce, Standard Chartered, HSBC, BP, Royal Mail, and many others, as evidence on the other side.

And we investigate them. European nations are too happy to turn a blind eye.

I think it would be fairer to say that France and Italy turn blind eyes. The Germans have been a lot more aggressive than us at actually jailing company managements who engaged in corrupt practices.

I'm reserving judgement until we see what attitude they take towards VW, so far it seems to be a state of denial that they even did anything wrong. They started well with Siemens but it seems to have petered out.

RodCrosby

Trump 9% over Cruz in Maryland.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/md/maryland_republican_presidential_primary-4313.html

That was one of the ones I had a bit of doubt over...

Plato_Says

Guido

http://order-order.com/2016/03/11/labour-mp-pulls-out-of-segregated-extremism-rally/

runnymede

These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

If those splits are even close to being right (and I am sceptical of any splits of this sort), Remain are in serious trouble,

Wanderer

RodCrosby said:

Trump: Ben is going to have a big, big part in the campaign... Maybe he doesn't even know how big!

That's a very Trump-like statement.

rcs1000

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

The bottom line is that we do not make things people want to buy. Our services are lapped up, as is the output from our creative industries. We are brilliant at both and we reap the rewards. But in too many other areas we either offer second best or nothing at all.

Rubbish. VW is just the tip of the iceberg with European companies. They cheated to meet US emissions standards, do you not think JLR lost business because of that, BMW and Mercedes are running massive damage control operations trying to assure everyone that, yes please believe it was just VW, please don't look at us. Our problem is that we don't play dirty. Look at the dodgy fighter jet sales to India by Dassault and our dodgy fighter jet sales to Saudi Arabia, which country opened an investigation into possible corruption and bribery, not France that's for sure. Which nations completely ignore state aid rules about their energy markets and rail companies? Not Britain.

We play by the rules and have been continually f***** by the countries who don't.

I'm not sure an 'our companies aren't corrupt enough' argument is entirely satisfactory, but if I did I might point to BAe, GSK, Rolls Royce, Standard Chartered, HSBC, BP, Royal Mail, and many others, as evidence on the other side.

And we investigate them. European nations are too happy to turn a blind eye.

I think it would be fairer to say that France and Italy turn blind eyes. The Germans have been a lot more aggressive than us at actually jailing company managements who engaged in corrupt practices.

I'm reserving judgement until we see what attitude they take towards VW, so far it seems to be a state of denial that they even did anything wrong. They started well with Siemens but it seems to have petered out.

Yes, I was thinking of bribery, but you're right re VW.

NorfolkTilIDie

Chuka Umunna, who I previously liked, claims Canada deal does not cover services. The EU's own page on the thing states outright that it will "open-up services market"

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/index_en.htm

I've seen other folk claim it doesn't cover financial services. Chapter 13 is titled "financial services".

Do leading Remain lights not bother to learn basic facts before speaking to media or are they just lying through their teeth??

Philip_Thompson

I expect the Tory vote to swing to Dave but will Labour get out the vote? That is the crucial question.

Corbyn and his general crappiness plus his general nonchalant attitude to the referendum could win this for Leave. Would if that would get the knives out for him if it did?

Plus the referendum is likely to happen after Labour is expected to lose hundreds more Councillors. Will there be Labour infighting during the campaign then? Will the loss of Councillors and activists play a role in getting out the vote?

RodCrosby

At what point do the GOP decide they're better-off going with the flow?

Philip_Thompson

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

Have you looked at that several hundred page review of the risks of Brexit that I sent you?

Or you can just carry on saying that no one on the Leave side is analysing things.

I didn't say no-one on the Leave side is analysing things. I said, perfectly accurately, that the Leave case is made less credible because many on the Leave side deny the risks, or belittle them, or - most counter-productive of all - impugn the integrity of those who point them out.

While the Remain side, yourself included, deny the risks [of remaining] or belittle them etc

rcs1000

Philip_Thompson said:

I expect the Tory vote to swing to Dave but will Labour get out the vote? That is the crucial question.

Corbyn and his general crappiness plus his general nonchalant attitude to the referendum could win this for Leave. Would if that would get the knives out for him if it did?

Plus the referendum is likely to happen after Labour is expected to lose hundreds more Councillors. Will there be Labour infighting during the campaign then? Will the loss of Councillors and activists play a role in getting out the vote?

Who knows?

I suspect that this referendum will be won or lost depending on whether we see one or more of the following events:

1. Eurogeddon Part II
2. A big increase in migrant flows
3. A terrorist incident

If nothing happens, then in all likelihood Remain wins.

SouthamObserver

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Chuka Umunna, who I previously liked, claims Canada deal does not cover services. The EU's own page on the thing states outright that it will "open-up services market"

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/index_en.htm

I've seen other folk claim it doesn't cover financial services. Chapter 13 is titled "financial services".

Do leading Remain lights not bother to learn basic facts before speaking to media or are they just lying through their teeth??

Not sure what he said, but it would be accurate to say that under the deal with the EU - if it is ever actually implemented - Canada will have less access to the single market than we have currently.

volcanopete

Whilst the Con vote for Remain exceeds the Con vote for Leave,Leave's chances of success are remote.On Pareto's principle,it's 80-20 for Remain.

OldKingCole

AndyJS said:

These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

Interesting that while 65-74's are quite strongly for Leave, my age group, who remember WWII, are less negative about the EU.

Sunil_Prasannan

Wanderer said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mike.

The 2nd of April is a Saturday

It's the new independent UK calendar

Speaking of that, I was wondering whether we might name an aircraft carrier "23rd of June".

Good morning. In less than an hour, activists from here will join others from around the Continent. And you will be launching the largest Referendum Campaign in the history of mankind. "Mankind." That word should have new meaning for all of us today. We can't be consumed by our petty differences anymore. We will be united in our common interests. Perhaps it's fate that today is the 23rd of June, and you will once again be fighting for our freedom... Not from tyranny, oppression, or persecution... but from annihilation. We are fighting for our right to live. To exist. And should we win the day, the 23rd of June will no longer be known as British holiday, but as the day Europe declared in one voice: "We will not go quietly into the night!" We will not vanish without a fight! We're going to live on! We're going to survive! Today we celebrate our Independence Day!

[crowd cheers!!!!!]

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fascinating

It's polling, Jim, but not as we know it!

Sunil_Prasannan

Richard_Nabavi said:

"HOLD THE DATE. The next PB London gathering will be on Friday April 2nd at the Shooting Star pub near Liverpool Street station. Details to follow"

April 2nd is a Saturday...

Friday? Cool, will be a bit easier for me to attend than a Thursday

Pulpstar

Carson sticks Trump over the line, he had a VERY loyal ~ 6% or so right till the end.

YUUUUUUUUUGE

Richard_Nabavi

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Chuka Umunna, who I previously liked, claims Canada deal does not cover services. The EU's own page on the thing states outright that it will "open-up services market"

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/index_en.htm

I've seen other folk claim it doesn't cover financial services. Chapter 13 is titled "financial services".

Do leading Remain lights not bother to learn basic facts before speaking to media or are they just lying through their teeth??

As I understand it, the CETA deal doesn't liberalise things much compared with the existing GATS agreements on financial services.

See this paper:

https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/cigi_paper_no.91_web.pdf

But of course, it is an article of faith that anyone who points this out must be lying.

AndyJS

runnymede said:

These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

If those splits are even close to being right (and I am sceptical of any splits of this sort), Remain are in serious trouble,

As you imply, for Remain to rely on the dodgy turnout record of the under 35s isn't a great position to be in.

MarkSenior

It is pretty pointless looking at these figures from one isolated online poll . Look and compare the equivalent figures with a telephone poll from Comres or Ipsos Mori and they paint a very different picture both by party and age splits .

philiph

Richard_Nabavi said:

Charles said:

Have you looked at that several hundred page review of the risks of Brexit that I sent you?

Or you can just carry on saying that no one on the Leave side is analysing things.

I didn't say no-one on the Leave side is analysing things. I said, perfectly accurately, that the Leave case is made less credible because many on the Leave side deny the risks, or belittle them, or - most counter-productive of all - impugn the integrity of those who point them out.

The simple facts are as follows:

Leave case is made less credible because many on the Leave side deny the risks
or
Remain case is made less credible because many on the Remain side deny the risks

is an equally true statement, unless you know what shape the EU has in 10 years time.

I would suggest that it is by no means obvious that the risks of leaving are greater than the risks of staying.

Equally the opportunities gained from leaving are likely to be equal to or greater than those of staying.

I am still of the opinion that regardless of intentions, treaties, agreements or any other kind of deal struck with the EU or Heads of Stae that in the medium term any action that is needed to secure and strengthen the Euro Zone will be done. That will (quite rightly) happen regardless of the impact on the few semi detached non Euro members. Our interests will be secondary and of no import to the majority who are Euro members. Continuation and consolidation of the Euro project will trump our interests at every turn. That is a risk to us, a very big risk, with no obvious upside to UK.

I consider that to be a greater risk to the UK than any risk that has been realistically (not all the scare stories) identified by Remain should we have the temerity to vote Out.

rcs1000

OldKingCole said:

AndyJS said:

These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

Interesting that while 65-74's are quite strongly for Leave, my age group, who remember WWII, are less negative about the EU.

I think senility tends to be more prevalent in the over 75 group...

Plato_Says

CNN 'poll of polls' says Trump has slight lead in Ohio

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2585553/

MikeSmithson

Note. The PB gathering is on Friday April 8th. Sorry for earlier typo.

Pulpstar

RodCrosby said:

Trump 9% over Cruz in Maryland.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/md/maryland_republican_presidential_primary-4313.html

That was one of the ones I had a bit of doubt over...

Puts my £8 on Rubio in DC in trouble maybe

NorfolkTilIDie

Richard_Nabavi said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Chuka Umunna, who I previously liked, claims Canada deal does not cover services. The EU's own page on the thing states outright that it will "open-up services market"

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/index_en.htm

I've seen other folk claim it doesn't cover financial services. Chapter 13 is titled "financial services".

Do leading Remain lights not bother to learn basic facts before speaking to media or are they just lying through their teeth??

As I understand it, the CETA deal doesn't liberalise things much compared with the existing GATS agreements on financial services.

See this paper:

https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/cigi_paper_no.91_web.pdf

But of course, it is an article of faith that anyone who points this out must be lying.

But he didn't say that, did he? If he had made that argument we could have an honest discussion about it. He said it "did not cover services". Which is just completely and obviously untrue.

Plato_Says

#UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

OldKingCole

rcs1000 said:

OldKingCole said:

AndyJS said:

These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

Interesting that while 65-74's are quite strongly for Leave, my age group, who remember WWII, are less negative about the EU.

I think senility tends to be more prevalent in the over 75 group...

Why would it be senile to prefer Remain?

watford30

Plato_Says said:

#UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

Are they fleeing from war torn Syria? Or just following up on Merkel's invite to a free party paid for by everyone in the EU?

NorfolkTilIDie

And by the way, Richard, the paper you just linked to says "one of its main components is a chapter that seeks to liberalize trade and investment in financial services between Canada and the European Union".

So its actually the opposite of the Remain campaign's claim it doesn't cover financial services. It was actually a main component.

Maybe they're not lying. They could just not know what they're talking about on the basic issues.

logical_song

Boris, how does he get away with it?
if Britain left the EU, “we would have to recognise that most of our problems are not caused by Brussels”.
"no downsides from leaving the EU"

rcs1000

Plato_Says said:

#UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

Shocked Gambia is number two - it's only got 1.8m people in total.

RobD

Plato_Says said:

#UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

Syria isn't even in the top ten.

TheWhiteRabbit

Pulpstar said:

RodCrosby said:

Trump 9% over Cruz in Maryland.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/md/maryland_republican_presidential_primary-4313.html

That was one of the ones I had a bit of doubt over...

Puts my £8 on Rubio in DC in trouble maybe

Look in the mirror Pulps. You're one of those people prepared to back Rubio on the back of repeatedly losing.

philiph

rcs1000 said:

Plato_Says said:

#UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

Shocked Gambia is number two - it's only got 1.8m people in total.

It hasn't that many any more!

TheWhiteRabbit

rcs1000 said:

Plato_Says said:

#UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

Shocked Gambia is number two - it's only got 1.8m people in total.

It is, however, a very young population.

Richard_Nabavi

NorfolkTilIDie said:

But he didn't say that, did he? If he had made that argument we could have an honest discussion about it. He said it "did not cover services". Which is just completely and obviously untrue.

So he made a mistake, or was simplifying.

It's these accusations of lying which I find completely counter-productive. It's really demeaning of the Leave side (to be fair, not often you), and personally I find it a massive turn-off, making it hard to take the Leave side seriously even when they might have a point. Similarly, the claims that, for example, the G20 finance ministers have all been nobbled by Osborne just look utterly bonkers. Such personal attacks play well with the hardcore base of Leavers, but won't impress anyone else.

anothernick

Philip_Thompson said:

I expect the Tory vote to swing to Dave but will Labour get out the vote? That is the crucial question.

Corbyn and his general crappiness plus his general nonchalant attitude to the referendum could win this for Leave. Would if that would get the knives out for him if it did?

Plus the referendum is likely to happen after Labour is expected to lose hundreds more Councillors. Will there be Labour infighting during the campaign then? Will the loss of Councillors and activists play a role in getting out the vote?

Labour activists that I know seem pretty committed. A Leave campaign led by Farage, IDS and George Galloway is a pretty strong motivator for Labour Remain.

SouthamObserver

NorfolkTilIDie said:

And by the way, Richard, the paper you just linked to says "one of its main components is a chapter that seeks to liberalize trade and investment in financial services between Canada and the European Union".

So its actually the opposite of the Remain campaign's claim it doesn't cover financial services. It was actually a main component.

Maybe they're not lying. They could just not know what they're talking about on the basic issues.

The basic issue is that under the terms of the Canadian agreement the UK would be in a far less advantageous trading position with the EU than it is now. How is this good for the UK?

MarkSenior

MarkSenior said:

It is pretty pointless looking at these figures from one isolated online poll . Look and compare the equivalent figures with a telephone poll from Comres or Ipsos Mori and they paint a very different picture both by party and age splits .

Last Ipsos Mori poll had by party

Con Stay 52% Leave 36%
Lab Stay 72% Leave 17%
LDem Stay 60% Leave 29%
UKIP Stay 2% Leave 97%

and by age group

18-34 Stay 64% Leave 23%
35-54 Stay 49% Leave 39%
55plus Stay 41% Leave 45%
18-24 Stay 56% Leave 25%
25-34 Stay 70% Leave 22%
35-44 Stay 61% Leave 28%
45-54 Stay 38% Leave 50%
55-64 Stay 36% Leave 48%
65 plus Stay 44% Leave 42%
75 plus Stay 45% Leave 41%

rcs1000

Plato_Says said:

#UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

The underlying data is here:

http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/country.php?id=105

A few factoids:
- 79% of arrivals are men
- February was the first month that arrivals were down year-over-year

NorfolkTilIDie

Richard's link is a great resource. It also makes clear that Canada sucessfully negotiated to make sure there can be no discrimination for EU financial companies over Canadian ones. So the principle of non-discrimination in Cameron's deal, the bit that made Richard support Remain, is also available to Canada outside the EU.

RobD

Richard_Nabavi said:

"HOLD THE DATE. The next PB London gathering will be on Friday April 2nd at the Shooting Star pub near Liverpool Street station. Details to follow"

April 2nd is a Saturday...

Note that the year was not specified

rcs1000

RobD said:

Plato_Says said:

#UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

Syria isn't even in the top ten.

To be fair, that's because that's the Italian route into Europe, which accounts for only about 5-10% of the total.

Here's the entire Med link: http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php

watford30

SouthamObserver said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

And by the way, Richard, the paper you just linked to says "one of its main components is a chapter that seeks to liberalize trade and investment in financial services between Canada and the European Union".

So its actually the opposite of the Remain campaign's claim it doesn't cover financial services. It was actually a main component.

Maybe they're not lying. They could just not know what they're talking about on the basic issues.

The basic issue is that under the terms of the Canadian agreement the UK would be in a far less advantageous trading position with the EU than it is now. How is this good for the UK?

Does Norfolk's post down thread suggest that this isn't the case?

Pulpstar

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

RodCrosby said:

Trump 9% over Cruz in Maryland.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/md/maryland_republican_presidential_primary-4313.html

That was one of the ones I had a bit of doubt over...

Puts my £8 on Rubio in DC in trouble maybe

Look in the mirror Pulps. You're one of those people prepared to back Rubio on the back of repeatedly losing.

I've only backed him in DC !

Richard_Nabavi

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Richard's link is a great resource. It also makes clear that Canada sucessfully negotiated to make sure there can be no discrimination for EU financial companies over Canadian ones. So the principle of non-discrimination in Cameron's deal, the bit that made Richard support Remain, is also available to Canada outside the EU.

No. The non-discrimination rule in Cameron's deal referred to the operation and regulations of the Single Market. You are cherry-picking phrases out of context and applying them to unrelated areas.

MikeK

Ben Carson confirms backing for Donald Trump for US presidency

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35787356

Carson sees a winner here. He must have been in touch with Ladbrokes/Shadsy

TCPoliticalBetting

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

OldKingCole said:

AndyJS said:

These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

Interesting that while 65-74's are quite strongly for Leave, my age group, who remember WWII, are less negative about the EU.

I think senility tends to be more prevalent in the over 75 group...

Why would it be senile to prefer Remain?

QTWTAIY

NorfolkTilIDie

Richard_Nabavi said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Richard's link is a great resource. It also makes clear that Canada sucessfully negotiated to make sure there can be no discrimination for EU financial companies over Canadian ones. So the principle of non-discrimination in Cameron's deal, the bit that made Richard support Remain, is also available to Canada outside the EU.

No. The non-discrimination rule in Cameron's deal referred to the operation and regulations of the Single Market. You are cherry-picking phrases out of context and applying them to unrelated areas.

No, you're wrong. The specific worry mentioned was regulation to require Euro denominated trades to have to be done by companies based in the Eurozone. Non-discrimination in CETA makes clear this could not be done under CETA without giving same rights to Canadian based firms.

Pulpstar

I thought backing Rubio in DC was like backing Corbyn in Islington !

Wonder if the Maryland poll affects my chances there...

NorfolkTilIDie

SouthamObserver said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

And by the way, Richard, the paper you just linked to says "one of its main components is a chapter that seeks to liberalize trade and investment in financial services between Canada and the European Union".

So its actually the opposite of the Remain campaign's claim it doesn't cover financial services. It was actually a main component.

Maybe they're not lying. They could just not know what they're talking about on the basic issues.

The basic issue is that under the terms of the Canadian agreement the UK would be in a far less advantageous trading position with the EU than it is now. How is this good for the UK?

Your assessment of the basic issue is just wrong. Canada's position with respect to the EU is 95% as good as the UK's with only a handful of differences. And that's more than made up for by the fact it can sign trade deals elsewhere and not have the Eurozone make up new rules on Canada's economy at will.

OldKingCole

TCPoliticalBetting said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

OldKingCole said:

AndyJS said:

These are the age group figures from the ICM poll:

18-24: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
25-34: Remain 56%, Leave 26%, DK 18%
35-64 Remain 35%, Leave 45%, DK 20%
65-74: Remain 31%, Leave 52%, DK 17%
75+: Remain 36%, Leave 49%, DK 16%

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/Voting_07thMar16.pdf

Interesting that while 65-74's are quite strongly for Leave, my age group, who remember WWII, are less negative about the EU.

I think senility tends to be more prevalent in the over 75 group...

Why would it be senile to prefer Remain?

QTWTAIY

:-)

RobD

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

Plato_Says said:

#UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

Syria isn't even in the top ten.

To be fair, that's because that's the Italian route into Europe, which accounts for only about 5-10% of the total.

Here's the entire Med link: http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php

Right, I was confused by the "top ten nationalities represent X% of sea arrivals". Thought that meant all sea arrivals.

Tykejohnno

MarkSenior said:

MarkSenior said:

It is pretty pointless looking at these figures from one isolated online poll . Look and compare the equivalent figures with a telephone poll from Comres or Ipsos Mori and they paint a very different picture both by party and age splits .

Last Ipsos Mori poll had by party

Con Stay 52% Leave 36%
Lab Stay 72% Leave 17%
LDem Stay 60% Leave 29%
UKIP Stay 2% Leave 97%

and by age group

18-34 Stay 64% Leave 23%
35-54 Stay 49% Leave 39%
55plus Stay 41% Leave 45%
18-24 Stay 56% Leave 25%
25-34 Stay 70% Leave 22%
35-44 Stay 61% Leave 28%
45-54 Stay 38% Leave 50%
55-64 Stay 36% Leave 48%
65 plus Stay 44% Leave 42%
75 plus Stay 45% Leave 41%

The lib dem stat's of 29% for leave,not far from Tories numbers,it seems we still have a liberal and especially democratic voice in the lib Dems.

NorfolkTilIDie

Richard_Nabavi said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

But he didn't say that, did he? If he had made that argument we could have an honest discussion about it. He said it "did not cover services". Which is just completely and obviously untrue.

So he made a mistake, or was simplifying.

It's these accusations of lying which I find completely counter-productive. It's really demeaning of the Leave side (to be fair, not often you), and personally I find it a massive turn-off, making it hard to take the Leave side seriously even when they might have a point. Similarly, the claims that, for example, the G20 finance ministers have all been nobbled by Osborne just look utterly bonkers. Such personal attacks play well with the hardcore base of Leavers, but won't impress anyone else.

It wasn't a mistake. Its not like he knew and accidentally said the wrong thing. He either just didn't know the facts (most likely in my opinion) on a basic topic or he was lying (less likely). Nor was it simplifying, given reality was direct opposite of his claim: services are a main component of CETA.

RobD

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

Plato_Says said:

#UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

Syria isn't even in the top ten.

To be fair, that's because that's the Italian route into Europe, which accounts for only about 5-10% of the total.

Here's the entire Med link: http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php

Also on that link, the onward movements page suggest that they all end up in Germany?

OldKingCole

NorfolkTilIDie said:

SouthamObserver said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

And by the way, Richard, the paper you just linked to says "one of its main components is a chapter that seeks to liberalize trade and investment in financial services between Canada and the European Union".

So its actually the opposite of the Remain campaign's claim it doesn't cover financial services. It was actually a main component.

Maybe they're not lying. They could just not know what they're talking about on the basic issues.

The basic issue is that under the terms of the Canadian agreement the UK would be in a far less advantageous trading position with the EU than it is now. How is this good for the UK?

Your assessment of the basic issue is just wrong. Canada's position with respect to the EU is 95% as good as the UK's with only a handful of differences. And that's more than made up for by the fact it can sign trade deals elsewhere and not have the Eurozone make up new rules on Canada's economy at will.

TBH, to a convinced Remainer, that’s a good economic argument. Doesn’t, of course, cover the desirability of encouraging close co-operation with our neighbours, and encouraging young people to think of themselves as Europeans.
Whci, in my experience many of them do. Although, of course how many people does one individual know?

Morris_Dancer

Good afternoon, everyone.

These figures are why Cameron leading for Remain is crucial (exacerbated by the fact he's a cut above every other leader in the UK now, excepting Sturgeon [but the SNP are solidly for Remain]).

AndyJS

MarkSenior said:

MarkSenior said:

It is pretty pointless looking at these figures from one isolated online poll . Look and compare the equivalent figures with a telephone poll from Comres or Ipsos Mori and they paint a very different picture both by party and age splits .

Last Ipsos Mori poll had by party

Con Stay 52% Leave 36%
Lab Stay 72% Leave 17%
LDem Stay 60% Leave 29%
UKIP Stay 2% Leave 97%

and by age group

18-34 Stay 64% Leave 23%
35-54 Stay 49% Leave 39%
55plus Stay 41% Leave 45%
18-24 Stay 56% Leave 25%
25-34 Stay 70% Leave 22%
35-44 Stay 61% Leave 28%
45-54 Stay 38% Leave 50%
55-64 Stay 36% Leave 48%
65 plus Stay 44% Leave 42%
75 plus Stay 45% Leave 41%

Not significantly different to ICM except for the 35-44 category and Con support.

Big_G_NorthWales

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

But he didn't say that, did he? If he had made that argument we could have an honest discussion about it. He said it "did not cover services". Which is just completely and obviously untrue.

So he made a mistake, or was simplifying.

It's these accusations of lying which I find completely counter-productive. It's really demeaning of the Leave side (to be fair, not often you), and personally I find it a massive turn-off, making it hard to take the Leave side seriously even when they might have a point. Similarly, the claims that, for example, the G20 finance ministers have all been nobbled by Osborne just look utterly bonkers. Such personal attacks play well with the hardcore base of Leavers, but won't impress anyone else.

It wasn't a mistake. Its not like he knew and accidentally said the wrong thing. He either just didn't know the facts (most likely in my opinion) on a basic topic or he was lying (less likely). Nor was it simplifying, given reality was direct opposite of his claim: services are a main component of CETA.

Accusing people of lying if they do not share a viewpoint does the referendum no favours. The accusation can equally apply to many on the each side and just wearies voters. Independent facts are needed from experts who do not have an agenda

OldKingCole

Tykejohnno said:

MarkSenior said:

MarkSenior said:

It is pretty pointless looking at these figures from one isolated online poll . Look and compare the equivalent figures with a telephone poll from Comres or Ipsos Mori and they paint a very different picture both by party and age splits .

Last Ipsos Mori poll had by party

Con Stay 52% Leave 36%
Lab Stay 72% Leave 17%
LDem Stay 60% Leave 29%
UKIP Stay 2% Leave 97%

and by age group

18-34 Stay 64% Leave 23%
35-54 Stay 49% Leave 39%
55plus Stay 41% Leave 45%
18-24 Stay 56% Leave 25%
25-34 Stay 70% Leave 22%
35-44 Stay 61% Leave 28%
45-54 Stay 38% Leave 50%
55-64 Stay 36% Leave 48%
65 plus Stay 44% Leave 42%
75 plus Stay 45% Leave 41%

The lib dem stat's of 29% for leave,not far from Tories numbers,it seems we still have a liberal and especially democratic voice in the lib Dems.

The residual Liberal party is for Leave, AIUI. Corn Laws stuff!

AlastairMeeks

8 April is looking good for me at present. I'll come wearing armour plating.

Wanderer

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

RodCrosby said:

Trump 9% over Cruz in Maryland.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/md/maryland_republican_presidential_primary-4313.html

That was one of the ones I had a bit of doubt over...

Puts my £8 on Rubio in DC in trouble maybe

Look in the mirror Pulps. You're one of those people prepared to back Rubio on the back of repeatedly losing.

I've only backed him in DC !

That's how it starts...

weejonnie

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I expect the Tory vote to swing to Dave but will Labour get out the vote? That is the crucial question.

Corbyn and his general crappiness plus his general nonchalant attitude to the referendum could win this for Leave. Would if that would get the knives out for him if it did?

Plus the referendum is likely to happen after Labour is expected to lose hundreds more Councillors. Will there be Labour infighting during the campaign then? Will the loss of Councillors and activists play a role in getting out the vote?

Who knows?

I suspect that this referendum will be won or lost depending on whether we see one or more of the following events:

1. Eurogeddon Part II
2. A big increase in migrant flows
3. A terrorist incident

If nothing happens, then in all likelihood Remain wins.

What would you like - a state of emergency declared in an EU country over the migrant problem?

Slackbladder

rcs1000 said:

Plato_Says said:

#UNCHR data: #migrants from #Nigeria are now largest group arriving to #Italy via #Med - https://t.co/Mksxzmy2iy https://t.co/buaVk27KrM

Shocked Gambia is number two - it's only got 1.8m people in total.

I've been on holiday in the Gambia, didn't seem too bad for Africa, but I didn't feel too comfortable lounging about in luxury in such a poor country.

Not to mention the white 'swimming teacher' next door to the hotel where a bunch of young local boys were always hanging about, and the european middle aged guy which always had a different young local woman to dinner every night.

MarkSenior

AndyJS said:

MarkSenior said:

MarkSenior said:

It is pretty pointless looking at these figures from one isolated online poll . Look and compare the equivalent figures with a telephone poll from Comres or Ipsos Mori and they paint a very different picture both by party and age splits .

Last Ipsos Mori poll had by party

Con Stay 52% Leave 36%
Lab Stay 72% Leave 17%
LDem Stay 60% Leave 29%
UKIP Stay 2% Leave 97%

and by age group

18-34 Stay 64% Leave 23%
35-54 Stay 49% Leave 39%
55plus Stay 41% Leave 45%
18-24 Stay 56% Leave 25%
25-34 Stay 70% Leave 22%
35-44 Stay 61% Leave 28%
45-54 Stay 38% Leave 50%
55-64 Stay 36% Leave 48%
65 plus Stay 44% Leave 42%
75 plus Stay 45% Leave 41%

Not significantly different to ICM except for the 35-44 category and Con support.

Really ??? 65 plus ICM large Remain margin , Ipsos narrow leave margin . The differences are significant and major . Don't know which is right if either are .

Plato_Says

America Elects
Another Maryland poll:

Trump 34
Cruz 25
Kasich 18
Rubio 14

(Baltimore Sun, LV, March 4-8)

NorfolkTilIDie

Big_G_NorthWales said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

But he didn't say that, did he? If he had made that argument we could have an honest discussion about it. He said it "did not cover services". Which is just completely and obviously untrue.

So he made a mistake, or was simplifying.

It's these accusations of lying which I find completely counter-productive. It's really demeaning of the Leave side (to be fair, not often you), and personally I find it a massive turn-off, making it hard to take the Leave side seriously even when they might have a point. Similarly, the claims that, for example, the G20 finance ministers have all been nobbled by Osborne just look utterly bonkers. Such personal attacks play well with the hardcore base of Leavers, but won't impress anyone else.

It wasn't a mistake. Its not like he knew and accidentally said the wrong thing. He either just didn't know the facts (most likely in my opinion) on a basic topic or he was lying (less likely). Nor was it simplifying, given reality was direct opposite of his claim: services are a main component of CETA.

Accusing people of lying if they do not share a viewpoint does the referendum no favours. The accusation can equally apply to many on the each side and just wearies voters. Independent facts are needed from experts who do not have an agenda

I agree but we're not talking about viewpoints here. Whether CETA covers services or not is a matter of fact. Its like arguing that a water molecule doesn't contain hydrogen. You're either ignorant or not telling the truth. But as I said, I think Umunna just doesn't know the facts. Like a lot in the metropolitan bubble, he probably adopts the views of people around him without much thought or reading.

Plato_Says

House Cracka
The Trump Effect. Massive Republican Turnout. Landslide in the making. https://t.co/XdF1SVKeQa

rcs1000

weejonnie said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I expect the Tory vote to swing to Dave but will Labour get out the vote? That is the crucial question.

Corbyn and his general crappiness plus his general nonchalant attitude to the referendum could win this for Leave. Would if that would get the knives out for him if it did?

Plus the referendum is likely to happen after Labour is expected to lose hundreds more Councillors. Will there be Labour infighting during the campaign then? Will the loss of Councillors and activists play a role in getting out the vote?

Who knows?

I suspect that this referendum will be won or lost depending on whether we see one or more of the following events:

1. Eurogeddon Part II
2. A big increase in migrant flows
3. A terrorist incident

If nothing happens, then in all likelihood Remain wins.

What would you like - a state of emergency declared in an EU country over the migrant problem?

I don't want any human misery. I am merely pointing out that Leave will benefit from disruptions.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

Richard_Nabavi said:

NorfolkTilIDie said:

But he didn't say that, did he? If he had made that argument we could have an honest discussion about it. He said it "did not cover services". Which is just completely and obviously untrue.

the claims that, for example, the G20 finance ministers have all been nobbled by Osborne just look utterly bonkers.

To say that the G20 finance ministers have been nobbled by GO or are acting as his stooges etc is a straw man argument.

They have been asked to make some sympathetic noises to help a fellow world leader with his little domestic difficulty and are obliging him.

Philip_Thompson

Plato_Says said:

House Cracka
The Trump Effect. Massive Republican Turnout. Landslide in the making. https://t.co/XdF1SVKeQa

Voter turnout is meaningless at this stage. Turnout rose by 250% for Corbyn's election over Miliband's, does that mean he's going to have a landslide victory in the next General Election?

Big_G_NorthWales

Listening to David Cameron at the Welsh Conservative Conference he is repeating the same theme as all his previous speeches that we are safer economically and in security and that leaving is a huge risk to jobs and prosperity and that leave have no coherent narrative of what the UK would be like outside the EU. Andrew T Davies, the leader of the Welsh Conservatives, who is for leave seemed somewhat embarrassed as DC received a good response from the delegates on concluding his speech. Very strange times but I believe that DC will continue with the same speech throughout the campaign as it does seem very credible

OldKingCole

From the Guardian (I know) "A vote on Irish reunification should be held if Britain votes to leave the EU, Martin McGuinness has said.”
He went on the suggest that If Britain left the `EU it would be in N. Irelands interests to join the Republic.

Every Proddy votes for Remain!

Wanderer

rcs1000 said:

weejonnie said:

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I expect the Tory vote to swing to Dave but will Labour get out the vote? That is the crucial question.

Corbyn and his general crappiness plus his general nonchalant attitude to the referendum could win this for Leave. Would if that would get the knives out for him if it did?

Plus the referendum is likely to happen after Labour is expected to lose hundreds more Councillors. Will there be Labour infighting during the campaign then? Will the loss of Councillors and activists play a role in getting out the vote?

Who knows?

I suspect that this referendum will be won or lost depending on whether we see one or more of the following events:

1. Eurogeddon Part II
2. A big increase in migrant flows
3. A terrorist incident

If nothing happens, then in all likelihood Remain wins.

What would you like - a state of emergency declared in an EU country over the migrant problem?

I don't want any human misery. I am merely pointing out that Leave will benefit from disruptions.

Do you think it would have benefited from Paris? That seems obvious but there was a wave of sympathy for the French afterwards. Is it so simple as terrorism = +Leave?