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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: UKIP supporters make up the biggest group

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  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Mr. Wanderer, it's fair to say there's uncertainty about what happens if we leave (and, for that matter), if we stay. However, Cameron's stretching credibility beyond breaking point. Using terms like "Three million jobs at risk" is technically true. In the same way "Tens of millions of lives at risk every day" is technically true when discussing crossing the road. It's wildly misleading.

    Mr. Felix, if someone promises me a cake and then uses spit instead of icing to top it off, they've kept their promise to give me a cake. That doesn't mean I'm going to be impressed by their culinary prowess.

    Yawn. You seem to be whining because he's given you the referendum he promised.You don't like the deal he made or his arguments. Fair enough. You are somewhat exaggerating what he is saying about the potential dangers of Brexit in order to categorize him as a charlatan. Shame on you.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2016
    On topic.

    That poll is simply stating the obvious, Remainers are mainly Labour voters, Leavers are mainly Ukipers.

    Off topic.

    Trump needs to be over 40 to overcome any tactical voting, if he is under 40 he will be in trouble in a 2 way race with 2 small spoilers.
    Only a dominant position can overcome the most desperate tactics.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814
    Scott_P said:
    Yawn. Try having a thought of your own, Scott & Paste.

    And prepare for the Leave counterspoof!
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    PClipp said:

    Cameron doesn´t really have very many friends.

    And even fewer after he stabbed Nick Clegg in the back, repeatedly......
    Lol some light relief from a nutjob on the other side.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,925

    watford30 said:


    Indulge me. When you look at Europe, the Europe we are being urged to stay in, what do you see? What do you think of its economy? How democratic do you think it is? What do you think is its future?

    snip ... If post Brexit the voters were told free movement of labour continued there would be fury as I believe it is the abolition of free movement of labour that most leaver's (not all) want to see. ...snip...


    Is it the majority view though? Or is this part of the process to paint Leavers as 'Racists'?
    Where is racists coming from. It is perfectly legitimate to want to control free movement

    watford30 said:


    Indulge me. When you look at Europe, the Europe we are being urged to stay in, what do you see? What do you think of its economy? How democratic do you think it is? What do you think is its future?

    snip ... If post Brexit the voters were told free movement of labour continued there would be fury as I believe it is the abolition of free movement of labour that most leaver's (not all) want to see. ...snip...


    Is it the majority view though? Or is this part of the process to paint Leavers as 'Racists'?
    Where is racists coming from. It is perfectly legitimate to want to control free movement

    Being opposed to freedom of movement is not racist, you can be opposed to it for racist reasons or for perfectly acceptable reasons to do with employment/ wage levels etc. .

    However when anyone mentions that one chunk of the LEAVE coalition wants to see movement of labour / immigration stopped Watford weighs in and claims it is trying to "paint LEAVERS as racist". It is pathetic really.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    "If post Brexit the voters were told free movement of labour continued there would be fury as I believe it is the abolition of free movement of labour that most leaver's (not all) want to" quoth someone

    I think there are varying degrees of "freedom of labour", with varying levels of objection:

    1. The current system where people are 'citizens of the EU' and immigrants are entitled to benefits as if they were natives
    2. A system where people were free to live and work where they could choose, but who could only claim benefits after a certain qualifying period
    3. A system where benefits were only available to citizens
    4. A system where people could move to work, but were required to have a written job offer before arrival and could not claim benefits

    And I'm sure there are additional - even more granular - distinctions you could make.

    I feel that David Cameron promised 2, and has not achieved it.
    I am happy with 3.
    Charles would prefer 4.

    No 4 is the best option but I assume that is only possible following Brexit and that any trade deal will allow it. I believe that HM Government needs to move to a contribution based system as soon as possible to bring us in line with Europe and then there would be no benefits problem. (assuming we were still in the EU)
  • Options
    NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268
    Scott_P said:
    Ignoring obvious inaccuracies in that poster, do Remain have any strings to their bow other than the peer pressure one??
  • Options
    OllyT said:

    watford30 said:


    Indulge me. When you look at Europe, the Europe we are being urged to stay in, what do you see? What do you think of its economy? How democratic do you think it is? What do you think is its future?

    snip ... If post Brexit the voters were told free movement of labour continued there would be fury as I believe it is the abolition of free movement of labour that most leaver's (not all) want to see. ...snip...


    Is it the majority view though? Or is this part of the process to paint Leavers as 'Racists'?
    Where is racists coming from. It is perfectly legitimate to want to control free movement

    watford30 said:


    Indulge me. When you look at Europe, the Europe we are being urged to stay in, what do you see? What do you think of its economy? How democratic do you think it is? What do you think is its future?

    snip ... If post Brexit the voters were told free movement of labour continued there would be fury as I believe it is the abolition of free movement of labour that most leaver's (not all) want to see. ...snip...


    Is it the majority view though? Or is this part of the process to paint Leavers as 'Racists'?
    Where is racists coming from. It is perfectly legitimate to want to control free movement

    Being opposed to freedom of movement is not racist, you can be opposed to it for racist reasons or for perfectly acceptable reasons to do with employment/ wage levels etc. .

    However when anyone mentions that one chunk of the LEAVE coalition wants to see movement of labour / immigration stopped Watford weighs in and claims it is trying to "paint LEAVERS as racist". It is pathetic really.

    For clarification I have 'never painted' anyone racist for wanting to control free movement of labour
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:
    Ignoring obvious inaccuracies in that poster, do Remain have any strings to their bow other than the peer pressure one??
    Where are the boxes for Tory MPs and Heads of State ?

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623
    edited March 2016

    When the Jedi took over. not being Irish you wouldn't understand that.
    Naught but Sith propaganda!

    You never heard of the O'Prasannan clan?

    My Irish name is:

    Súníl Ó'Prásánnán
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Scott_P said:
    Ignoring obvious inaccuracies in that poster, do Remain have any strings to their bow other than the peer pressure one??
    Who would have thought that a few short weeks ago you were supporting Remain?

    "No one" is the truthful answer to that question, but I guess we should indulge you.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,293
    Scott_P said:

    @DonnyFerguson: Trump is polling at 38% against Hillary.

    Here's what 38% looks like. https://t.co/pkJAgDPvNU

    And if you don't really believe Hillary has a chance of achieving that result in the General, then you should take those polls with a pinch of salt.
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    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623
    Scott_P said:
    Well, I think I'm a scientist, but I definitely do believe in Britain!

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground

    He's holding it one-handed. As every single man knows, camera angles can be made to be very deceptive.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Bath Chronicle has this headline on the referendum yesterday.

    Single vote in B&NES mayoral referendum costs £375 http://po.st/ucj6SW

    I hope that the member of staff had a good book to read on democracy's strengths.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623

    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground

    He's holding it one-handed. As every single man knows, camera angles can be made to be very deceptive.
    So that's what happened to Roland? RIP :(
  • Options

    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground

    He's holding it one-handed. As every single man knows, camera angles can be made to be very deceptive.
    Mr Meeks, you are now part of the PB editorial team, you should set an appropriate tone, and never lower the tone.

    You wouldn't catch me coming out with comments like that.

    Honest
  • Options
    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited March 2016


    I see a disaster zone and the real prospect of there being a rupture that may well result in the Balkans making their own arbitrary decisions and that Germany, and in particular Merkel, having to change their policy on the great migration exodus by closing her border and accepting that David Cameron has called this right from day one. However it will remain a market of 500 million people ....

    We have learned one thing from Cameron's renegotiation that there is no substantial impetus for reform within the EU. You acknowledge that it dsperately needs reform, but what have the UK govts since the early 90s achieved in persuading the EU to reform? The answer is very very little. In a situation where the EU is almost unreformable, our exit is the best chance of shaking it up. The alternative of REMAINING is business as usual, a long slow process of decline.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771

    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground

    I thought Mandelson was taller than that.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,031
    Mr. Felix, you're attacking an argument I haven't made [namely, criticising Cameron for offering a referendum].

    Cameron's attitude and outpourings are as irksome as when Clegg asserted we'd be, outside the EU, a pygmy.

    The deal failed to get protection for the City, or for the UK vis-a-vis the immense power the eurozone has via QMV. Those were Cameron's own targets, were they not?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,036
    Big turnout for Bernie in Raleigh, North Carolina....
  • Options

    Scott_P said:

    @DonnyFerguson: Trump is polling at 38% against Hillary.

    Here's what 38% looks like. https://t.co/pkJAgDPvNU

    And if you don't really believe Hillary has a chance of achieving that result in the General, then you should take those polls with a pinch of salt.
    The problem is that it is implying that Trump gets 38% while Hillary gets 62%. In fact, the poll in question was Trump 38% Hillary 51%. This is also much more favourable than 2 other recent polls, which had 41%-50% and 36%-41%
  • Options

    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground

    He's holding it one-handed. As every single man knows, camera angles can be made to be very deceptive.
    Mr Meeks, you are now part of the PB editorial team, you should set an appropriate tone, and never lower the tone.

    You wouldn't catch me coming out with comments like that.

    Honest
    Are there any LEAVE advocates who are members of that august team?
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,623

    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground

    He's holding it one-handed. As every single man knows, camera angles can be made to be very deceptive.
    Mr Meeks, you are now part of the PB editorial team, you should set an appropriate tone, and never lower the tone.

    You wouldn't catch me coming out with comments like that.

    Honest
    Are there any LEAVE advocates who are members of that august team?
    You're not accusing TSE of bias??
  • Options

    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground

    He's holding it one-handed. As every single man knows, camera angles can be made to be very deceptive.
    So that's what happened to Roland? RIP :(
    Roland "the rat" Rudd is in the REMAIN team.
  • Options

    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground

    He's holding it one-handed. As every single man knows, camera angles can be made to be very deceptive.
    Mr Meeks, you are now part of the PB editorial team, you should set an appropriate tone, and never lower the tone.

    You wouldn't catch me coming out with comments like that.

    Honest
    Are there any LEAVE advocates who are members of that august team?
    Depending on my mood, yes.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771

    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground

    He's holding it one-handed. As every single man knows, camera angles can be made to be very deceptive.
    Mr Meeks, you are now part of the PB editorial team, you should set an appropriate tone, and never lower the tone.

    You wouldn't catch me coming out with comments like that.

    Honest
    Are there any LEAVE advocates who are members of that august team?
    Depending on my mood, yes.
    what makes you swing ?
  • Options

    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground

    He's holding it one-handed. As every single man knows, camera angles can be made to be very deceptive.
    Mr Meeks, you are now part of the PB editorial team, you should set an appropriate tone, and never lower the tone.

    You wouldn't catch me coming out with comments like that.

    Honest
    Are there any LEAVE advocates who are members of that august team?
    Depending on my mood, yes.
    what makes you swing ?
    Hot financial services industry action.

    I think PBers are right, I'm going to be a Leaver, up until the 22nd of June, when Dave begs me for his vote, and I go weak at the knees for my brilliant leader.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,548
    edited March 2016


    I see a disaster zone and the real prospect of there being a rupture that may well result in the Balkans making their own arbitrary decisions and that Germany, and in particular Merkel, having to change their policy on the great migration exodus by closing her border and accepting that David Cameron has called this right from day one. However it will remain a market of 500 million people ....

    We have learned one thing from Cameron's renegotiation that there is no substantial impetus for reform within the EU. You acknowledge that it dsperately needs reform, but what have the UK govts since the early 90s achieved in persuading the EU to reform? The answer is very very little. In a situation where the EU is almost unreformable, our exit is the best chance of shaking it up. The alternative of REMAINING is business as usual, a long slow process of decline.
    Incorrect. In that there was ever the question of reform. The EU has no intention of reforming and is quite happy with its position of moving towards ECU. The most cursory glance of any EU text will tell you that. I'm not sure anywhere that Dave said he wanted to reform the EU because that would have been a ridiculous claim.

    The EU is unreformable and on it staggers towards a unity. The aim of the negotiation was to determine our relationship with this behemoth. And, on those terms Dave did quite well. I give him 8/10. Got opt out of ECU, opt out of eurozone bail-ins, etc, etc as we have rehearsed on here many times.

    What reform of the EU did anyone conceivably expect?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    felix said:

    felix said:

    JonathanD said:

    Mr. NorthWales, Cameron's giving people a choice of A or B, and saying if we pick A all the horrors of Hell will spill forth, and fire will rain from the sky. It's not credible. The overblown doom and gloom is simply not believable, because if Cameron actually did believe it then a referendum would not have been promised.

    I'm not some Cameron-hating far-right chap. I've defended him quite a lot on here. But on this EU negotiation and referendum I think he's deeply unconvincing, and I've lost rather a lot of respect for him.


    Presumably under your logic he should also refuse to hold a General Election until Labour have got rid of Corbyn and Momentum and reformed into a central left Blairite party, given the danger they would be to the UK?
    Lol nail on the head!
    I'm no. Legally he has to have a GE. He did not have to have a referendum.
    So what - just because people like you don't like what he says doesn't alter the fact that he is honouring a promise made to voters.
    Not for the first time you completely miss the point. Cameron is currently claiming all manner of disaster if we leave the EU. Now either he really believes that, in which case he was was being unbelievably reckless when he made that pledge, or he is simply being dishonest now and really doesn't believe his own idiotic pronouncements.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987

    felix said:

    felix said:

    JonathanD said:

    Mr. NorthWales, Cameron's giving people a choice of A or B, and saying if we pick A all the horrors of Hell will spill forth, and fire will rain from the sky. It's not credible. The overblown doom and gloom is simply not believable, because if Cameron actually did believe it then a referendum would not have been promised.

    I'm not some Cameron-hating far-right chap. I've defended him quite a lot on here. But on this EU negotiation and referendum I think he's deeply unconvincing, and I've lost rather a lot of respect for him.


    Presumably under your logic he should also refuse to hold a General Election until Labour have got rid of Corbyn and Momentum and reformed into a central left Blairite party, given the danger they would be to the UK?
    Lol nail on the head!
    I'm no. Legally he has to have a GE. He did not have to have a referendum.
    So what - just because people like you don't like what he says doesn't alter the fact that he is honouring a promise made to voters.
    Not for the first time you completely miss the point. Cameron is currently claiming all manner of disaster if we leave the EU. Now either he really believes that, in which case he was was being unbelievably reckless when he made that pledge, or he is simply being dishonest now and really doesn't believe his own idiotic pronouncements.

    The third possibility is that he thought he would be voted down in the Commons because he was not expecting an overall majority when he made the promise.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771

    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground

    He's holding it one-handed. As every single man knows, camera angles can be made to be very deceptive.
    Mr Meeks, you are now part of the PB editorial team, you should set an appropriate tone, and never lower the tone.

    You wouldn't catch me coming out with comments like that.

    Honest
    Are there any LEAVE advocates who are members of that august team?
    Depending on my mood, yes.
    what makes you swing ?
    Hot financial services industry action.

    I think PBers are right, I'm going to be a Leaver, up until the 22nd of June, when Dave begs me for his vote, and I go weak at the knees for my brilliant leader.
    hmm

    22nd June is a bad day to go charging off in to Europe. Both Napoleon and Hitler invaded Russia on that day and look waht happened them.
  • Options

    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground

    He's holding it one-handed. As every single man knows, camera angles can be made to be very deceptive.
    Mr Meeks, you are now part of the PB editorial team, you should set an appropriate tone, and never lower the tone.

    You wouldn't catch me coming out with comments like that.

    Honest
    Are there any LEAVE advocates who are members of that august team?
    Depending on my mood, yes.
    what makes you swing ?
    Hot financial services industry action.

    I think PBers are right, I'm going to be a Leaver, up until the 22nd of June, when Dave begs me for his vote, and I go weak at the knees for my brilliant leader.
    hmm

    22nd June is a bad day to go charging off in to Europe. Both Napoleon and Hitler invaded Russia on that day and look waht happened them.
    I'm editing PB on the anniversary of Waterloo, that might convert me to an immovable Leaver again.
  • Options
    A very nice 8/1 winner for those PBers who heeded my recent suggestion of backing Steve McClaren to win the latest stage of the Premier League Sack Race.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    I have to say, this new Leaver argument that Cameron was irresponsible to offer a referendum, because leaving might be a disaster, is one of the funniest I've ever seen. Bravo!
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771

    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground

    He's holding it one-handed. As every single man knows, camera angles can be made to be very deceptive.
    Mr Meeks, you are now part of the PB editorial team, you should set an appropriate tone, and never lower the tone.

    You wouldn't catch me coming out with comments like that.

    Honest
    Are there any LEAVE advocates who are members of that august team?
    Depending on my mood, yes.
    what makes you swing ?
    Hot financial services industry action.

    I think PBers are right, I'm going to be a Leaver, up until the 22nd of June, when Dave begs me for his vote, and I go weak at the knees for my brilliant leader.
    hmm

    22nd June is a bad day to go charging off in to Europe. Both Napoleon and Hitler invaded Russia on that day and look waht happened them.
    I'm editing PB on the anniversary of Waterloo, that might convert me to an immovable Leaver again.
    you're as immovable as Osborne's deficit elimination date.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    felix said:

    felix said:

    JonathanD said:

    Mr. NorthWales, Cameron's giving people a choice of A or B, and saying if we pick A all the horrors of Hell will spill forth, and fire will rain from the sky. It's not credible. The overblown doom and gloom is simply not believable, because if Cameron actually did believe it then a referendum would not have been promised.

    I'm not some Cameron-hating far-right chap. I've defended him quite a lot on here. But on this EU negotiation and referendum I think he's deeply unconvincing, and I've lost rather a lot of respect for him.


    Presumably under your logic he should also refuse to hold a General Election until Labour have got rid of Corbyn and Momentum and reformed into a central left Blairite party, given the danger they would be to the UK?
    Lol nail on the head!
    I'm no. Legally he has to have a GE. He did not have to have a referendum.
    So what - just because people like you don't like what he says doesn't alter the fact that he is honouring a promise made to voters.
    Not for the first time you completely miss the point. Cameron is currently claiming all manner of disaster if we leave the EU. Now either he really believes that, in which case he was was being unbelievably reckless when he made that pledge, or he is simply being dishonest now and really doesn't believe his own idiotic pronouncements.
    In the spirit of last week which you seem to have forgotten I think he is being a good politician in pushing the case he believes in. You think differently.
  • Options

    I have to say, this new Leaver argument that Cameron was irresponsible to offer a referendum, because leaving might be a disaster, is one of the funniest I've ever seen. Bravo!

    Not as good as the Kipper argument I've seen that Cameron is holding this referendum too soon, when their boy Farage wanted it held in 2015.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771

    I have to say, this new Leaver argument that Cameron was irresponsible to offer a referendum, because leaving might be a disaster, is one of the funniest I've ever seen. Bravo!

    Oh come come Richard don't you read your own posts ?
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Illinois - WeAskAmerica

    Clinton 62 .. Sanders 25
  • Options

    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground

    He's holding it one-handed. As every single man knows, camera angles can be made to be very deceptive.
    Mr Meeks, you are now part of the PB editorial team, you should set an appropriate tone, and never lower the tone.

    You wouldn't catch me coming out with comments like that.

    Honest
    Are there any LEAVE advocates who are members of that august team?
    Depending on my mood, yes.
    what makes you swing ?
    Hot financial services industry action.

    I think PBers are right, I'm going to be a Leaver, up until the 22nd of June, when Dave begs me for his vote, and I go weak at the knees for my brilliant leader.
    hmm

    22nd June is a bad day to go charging off in to Europe. Both Napoleon and Hitler invaded Russia on that day and look waht happened them.
    I'm editing PB on the anniversary of Waterloo, that might convert me to an immovable Leaver again.
    you're as immovable as Osborne's deficit elimination date.
    Please, I used to be indecisive, now I'm not so sure
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    I have to say, this new Leaver argument that Cameron was irresponsible to offer a referendum, because leaving might be a disaster, is one of the funniest I've ever seen. Bravo!

    Oh come come Richard don't you read your own posts ?
    Not as assiduously as everyone else seems to.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Trump coming in for the nom.

    1.39
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Mr. Felix, you're attacking an argument I haven't made [namely, criticising Cameron for offering a referendum].

    Cameron's attitude and outpourings are as irksome as when Clegg asserted we'd be, outside the EU, a pygmy.

    The deal failed to get protection for the City, or for the UK vis-a-vis the immense power the eurozone has via QMV. Those were Cameron's own targets, were they not?

    Err. You said he was either lying or shouldn't have offered the referendum.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    I have to say, this new Leaver argument that Cameron was irresponsible to offer a referendum, because leaving might be a disaster, is one of the funniest I've ever seen. Bravo!

    Not as good as the Kipper argument I've seen that Cameron is holding this referendum too soon, when their boy Farage wanted it held in 2015.
    It's actually like being at the real mad hatters tea party - except it's loonyland instead of Wonderland.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,031
    Mr. Felix, no.

    It's entirely legitimate to believe we should Leave, or Remain, but foam-flecked prophecies of doom and woe are not.

    Given the eurozone countries have a critical mass when it comes to QMV, and that the deal appears to have actually weakened our hand when it comes to financial services, and that the rest of the EU wants greater integration, it's in the UK's interests to leave.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2016
    AndyJS said:
    The older groups across all parties seem to be moving to Leave. It seems to be men especially.

    Remain were plus eight among Tories - now minus eighteen.

    One in six ScotNats no longer wants independence. Yes vote now being bumped up by disgruntled 2015 Labour voters.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Not as good as the Kipper argument I've seen that Cameron is holding this referendum too soon, when their boy Farage wanted it held in 2015.

    I also enjoyed the argument that it's Cameron's fault that the Leave side don't have a Brexit plan.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125

    Mr. Felix, no.

    It's entirely legitimate to believe we should Leave, or Remain, but foam-flecked prophecies of doom and woe are not.

    Given the eurozone countries have a critical mass when it comes to QMV, and that the deal appears to have actually weakened our hand when it comes to financial services, and that the rest of the EU wants greater integration, it's in the UK's interests to leave.

    You're not the least bit paranoid - Cameron is out to get you!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    WhatUKThinks, latest averages:

    Remain 51%
    Leave 49%

    http://whatukthinks.org/eu/?gclid=CN6qgayducsCFYIW0wodZh0Hdw
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Remainians:

    Was Cameron reckless to call a referendum where one option is so terrible?

    Or is he lying when he says Leave is terrible?

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,031
    Mr. Felix, I suppose it's easier to write "You're paranoid" than contest the claim the eurozone has a critical mass of votes in Qualified Majority Voting...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    John Curtice deserves to have more than 2,176 Twitter followers IMO:

    https://twitter.com/whatukthinks
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    (Sir) Ken Adam, set designer of the Bond films and the Strangelove War Room has died aged 95...
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Not as good as the Kipper argument I've seen that Cameron is holding this referendum too soon, when their boy Farage wanted it held in 2015.

    I also enjoyed the argument that it's Cameron's fault that the Leave side don't have a Brexit plan.
    What's the Remain plan when they win?
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    Trump coming in for the nom.

    1.39

    Trump can pull it off on Tuesday if he wins all 5 states that vote.
    However I don't think he will win Ohio and Missouri, although he has a 40% chance of winning there, kasich and Cruz are the favourites.

    But who knows, yesterday's debate may shift the numbers to Trump's favour.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,081
    edited March 2016


    Remainians:

    Was Cameron reckless to call a referendum where one option is so terrible?

    Or is he lying when he says Leave is terrible?

    As is clear from the article leading this thread, relatively few Remain supporters are Conservatives and so would likely answer (a). Even on PB comments, it seems true blues are not an absolute majority among Remain supporters.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    JonathanD said:

    Mr. NorthWales, Cameron's giving people a choice of A or B, and saying if we pick A all the horrors of Hell will spill forth, and fire will rain from the sky. It's not credible. The overblown doom and gloom is simply not believable, because if Cameron actually did believe it then a referendum would not have been promised.

    I'm not some Cameron-hating far-right chap. I've defended him quite a lot on here. But on this EU negotiation and referendum I think he's deeply unconvincing, and I've lost rather a lot of respect for him.


    Presumably under your logic he should also refuse to hold a General Election until Labour have got rid of Corbyn and Momentum and reformed into a central left Blairite party, given the danger they would be to the UK?
    Lol nail on the head!
    I'm no. Legally he has to have a GE. He did not have to have a referendum.
    So what - just because people like you don't like what he says doesn't alter the fact that he is honouring a promise made to voters.
    Not for the first time you completely miss the point. Cameron is currently claiming all manner of disaster if we leave the EU. Now either he really believes that, in which case he was was being unbelievably reckless when he made that pledge, or he is simply being dishonest now and really doesn't believe his own idiotic pronouncements.
    In the spirit of last week which you seem to have forgotten I think he is being a good politician in pushing the case he believes in. You think differently.
    I kind of gave up on the spirit of last week when everyone else ignored it.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground

    He's holding it one-handed. As every single man knows, camera angles can be made to be very deceptive.
    Mr Meeks, you are now part of the PB editorial team, you should set an appropriate tone, and never lower the tone.

    You wouldn't catch me coming out with comments like that.

    Honest
    Are there any LEAVE advocates who are members of that august team?
    Depending on my mood, yes.
    what makes you swing ?
    Hot financial services industry action.

    I think PBers are right, I'm going to be a Leaver, up until the 22nd of June, when Dave begs me for his vote, and I go weak at the knees for my brilliant leader.
    hmm

    22nd June is a bad day to go charging off in to Europe. Both Napoleon and Hitler invaded Russia on that day and look waht happened them.
    I'm editing PB on the anniversary of Waterloo, that might convert me to an immovable Leaver again.
    you're as immovable as Osborne's deficit elimination date.
    I'm curious how you'd react to Osborne actually eliminating the deficit though. Probably grumble "too little, too late".
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048

    I have to say, this new Leaver argument that Cameron was irresponsible to offer a referendum, because leaving might be a disaster, is one of the funniest I've ever seen. Bravo!

    The argument is not that he was irresponsible to offer it. The argument is that he would never have offered one of he genuinely believed that Brexit meant all the catastrophic consequences he is now claiming.

    We all know he is being dishonest. We are just pointing out that he is being illogical as well.
  • Options

    Not as good as the Kipper argument I've seen that Cameron is holding this referendum too soon, when their boy Farage wanted it held in 2015.

    I also enjoyed the argument that it's Cameron's fault that the Leave side don't have a Brexit plan.
    Since Cameron said he was prepared to recommend LEAVE, then he must have had a Brexit plan.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Trump coming in for the nom.

    1.39

    Trump can pull it off on Tuesday if he wins all 5 states that vote.
    However I don't think he will win Ohio and Missouri, although he has a 40% chance of winning there, kasich and Cruz are the favourites.

    But who knows, yesterday's debate may shift the numbers to Trump's favour.
    Why don't you think MO?

    Looks pretty good for Trump on this map, which hasn't been far wrong so far...
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/31/upshot/donald-trumps-strongest-supporters-a-certain-kind-of-democrat.html?_r=4
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,942
    edited March 2016
    Ken Livingstone really is a piece of work. Coming out with comments like he did today while attaching himself to Corbyn like a leech is hugely depressing for those who think Labour can still be salvaged
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771

    Jesus flipping Christ, I go all poncey boots Gaylord whenever I see a small rat.

    Giant Rat 'Bigger Than A Dog' Near Playground

    The enormous dead rodent is spotted by a gas engineer working at a block of flats in north London.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1658135/giant-rat-bigger-than-a-dog-near-playground

    He's holding it one-handed. As every single man knows, camera angles can be made to be very deceptive.
    Mr Meeks, you are now part of the PB editorial team, you should set an appropriate tone, and never lower the tone.

    You wouldn't catch me coming out with comments like that.

    Honest
    Are there any LEAVE advocates who are members of that august team?
    Depending on my mood, yes.
    what makes you swing ?
    Hot financial services industry action.

    I think PBers are right, I'm going to be a Leaver, up until the 22nd of June, when Dave begs me for his vote, and I go weak at the knees for my brilliant leader.
    hmm

    22nd June is a bad day to go charging off in to Europe. Both Napoleon and Hitler invaded Russia on that day and look waht happened them.
    I'm editing PB on the anniversary of Waterloo, that might convert me to an immovable Leaver again.
    you're as immovable as Osborne's deficit elimination date.
    I'm curious how you'd react to Osborne actually eliminating the deficit though. Probably grumble "too little, too late".
    I take it from how youve phrased that it's sort of a hypothetical question
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    TOPPING said:


    I see a disaster zone and the real prospect of there being a rupture that may well result in the Balkans making their own arbitrary decisions and that Germany, and in particular Merkel, having to change their policy on the great migration exodus by closing her border and accepting that David Cameron has called this right from day one. However it will remain a market of 500 million people ....

    We have learned one thing from Cameron's renegotiation that there is no substantial impetus for reform within the EU. You acknowledge that it dsperately needs reform, but what have the UK govts since the early 90s achieved in persuading the EU to reform? The answer is very very little. In a situation where the EU is almost unreformable, our exit is the best chance of shaking it up. The alternative of REMAINING is business as usual, a long slow process of decline.
    Incorrect. In that there was ever the question of reform. The EU has no intention of reforming and is quite happy with its position of moving towards ECU. The most cursory glance of any EU text will tell you that. I'm not sure anywhere that Dave said he wanted to reform the EU because that would have been a ridiculous claim.

    The EU is unreformable and on it staggers towards a unity. The aim of the negotiation was to determine our relationship with this behemoth. And, on those terms Dave did quite well. I give him 8/10. Got opt out of ECU, opt out of eurozone bail-ins, etc, etc as we have rehearsed on here many times.

    What reform of the EU did anyone conceivably expect?
    We have had a series of UK Govts, since Thatcher, promising to reform it from the inside, that is the point I was making. One govt under Blair even gave up billions on the promise of CAP reform. How gullible was that?
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    The Referendum was in the Manifesto...two years ago..suddenly the nervous nellies are all aquiver..what a bunch of pansies..
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    I have to say, this new Leaver argument that Cameron was irresponsible to offer a referendum, because leaving might be a disaster, is one of the funniest I've ever seen. Bravo!

    We all know he is being dishonest. We are just pointing out that he is being illogical as well.
    No we don't all know Cameron is being dishonest , in fact I would expect that more than half of pb posters would disagree with you . It is true though that the majority of you bitter and twisted Leavers think everyone is dishonest who does not agree with you , hence you spout words like dishonest and liar in every other post . When Brexit loses the referendum your bitterness will be multiplied ten fold .
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,036
    RodCrosby said:

    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Trump coming in for the nom.

    1.39

    Trump can pull it off on Tuesday if he wins all 5 states that vote.
    However I don't think he will win Ohio and Missouri, although he has a 40% chance of winning there, kasich and Cruz are the favourites.

    But who knows, yesterday's debate may shift the numbers to Trump's favour.
    Why don't you think MO?

    Looks pretty good for Trump on this map, which hasn't been far wrong so far...
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/31/upshot/donald-trumps-strongest-supporters-a-certain-kind-of-democrat.html?_r=4
    Trump will win Missouri next Tuesday, Hillary may not.
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    NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268

    I have to say, this new Leaver argument that Cameron was irresponsible to offer a referendum, because leaving might be a disaster, is one of the funniest I've ever seen. Bravo!

    We all know he is being dishonest. We are just pointing out that he is being illogical as well.
    No we don't all know Cameron is being dishonest , in fact I would expect that more than half of pb posters would disagree with you . It is true though that the majority of you bitter and twisted Leavers think everyone is dishonest who does not agree with you , hence you spout words like dishonest and liar in every other post . When Brexit loses the referendum your bitterness will be multiplied ten fold .
    If this referendum is lost that will be just one battle in the war.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,081
    I note that earlier people were insisting that the CAP hurt African farmers. This is one of the greatest fallacies. The EU agreed a kind of colonial-guilt agreement wth the ACP group of states and thus African farmers have untrammelled access to European markets. The real losers from the CAP are (a) European consumers and (b) big North and South American agricultural corporations. Africa would have little to gain from ending the CAP.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    'The GOP candidates for president had a boring debate last night. My one-word summary is “capitulation.” Based on the energy on stage, it seems they stopped fighting. That means Trump can stroll to the nomination, assuming Florida goes as expected.

    Trump’s only objective at the debate was to avoid looking out of control. He said in advance that he could do so easily unless the other candidates attacked him. And then his opponents did not attack him. That’s acceptance of the final result. Capitulation.

    The other possibility is that Florida and Ohio are already rigged. That would be the other reason for not fighting. We’ll find out next week.

    The thing to watch in coming months is the degree to which Muslim immigration becomes connected to rape in the minds of the public, based on reports from Europe and from ISIS territories. Trump is taking the anti-rape position at the expense of religious tolerance. That is a landslide-winning position against an opponent he has already labelled an “enabler.”

    The hopes of the anti-Trumpers rest on the fact that nearly two-thirds of the public have a negative impression of Trump. In normal times, that would be predictive of the final result. But by November, Trump will turn this election into a referendum on protecting the health and safety of women. And he will be running against the only living human with lower approval than him (by then).

    That’s a landslide position.'

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/140857419526/gop-debate-scorecard-march-10-master-persuader
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    Very interesting that Boris has come out for a Canadian style deal that commenced negotiations in 2009 and is still not in place, 7 years later. The problem for leave is that David Cameron pounced on Boris's choice saying, as he does straight into the camera, '7 years of uncertainty' and not as good a deal as we have now. It strikes me that Boris by coming out for a Canadian deal has compromised anything else as he is such a high profile campaigner. What happens when others in leave suggest EEA OR EFTA or anything else as they will look chaotic as Boris wants the Canada deal.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771

    Very interesting that Boris has come out for a Canadian style deal that commenced negotiations in 2009 and is still not in place, 7 years later. The problem for leave is that David Cameron pounced on Boris's choice saying, as he does straight into the camera, '7 years of uncertainty' and not as good a deal as we have now. It strikes me that Boris by coming out for a Canadian deal has compromised anything else as he is such a high profile campaigner. What happens when others in leave suggest EEA OR EFTA or anything else as they will look chaotic as Boris wants the Canada deal.

    No side currently has a killer argument.

    Nor are they likely to get one.
  • Options

    I have to say, this new Leaver argument that Cameron was irresponsible to offer a referendum, because leaving might be a disaster, is one of the funniest I've ever seen. Bravo!

    We all know he is being dishonest. We are just pointing out that he is being illogical as well.
    No we don't all know Cameron is being dishonest , in fact I would expect that more than half of pb posters would disagree with you . It is true though that the majority of you bitter and twisted Leavers think everyone is dishonest who does not agree with you , hence you spout words like dishonest and liar in every other post . When Brexit loses the referendum your bitterness will be multiplied ten fold .
    If this referendum is lost that will be just one battle in the war.
    Echoes of the Scots Nats there
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,232
    edited March 2016
    LD voters are the most pro-Remain though, 3:1 Remain, while Labour voters are just under 2:1 Remain. UKIP voters are almost 100% Leave while the Tories are split down the middle 52:48 Remain
  • Options

    Very interesting that Boris has come out for a Canadian style deal that commenced negotiations in 2009 and is still not in place, 7 years later. The problem for leave is that David Cameron pounced on Boris's choice saying, as he does straight into the camera, '7 years of uncertainty' and not as good a deal as we have now. It strikes me that Boris by coming out for a Canadian deal has compromised anything else as he is such a high profile campaigner. What happens when others in leave suggest EEA OR EFTA or anything else as they will look chaotic as Boris wants the Canada deal.

    No side currently has a killer argument.

    Nor are they likely to get one.
    I wouldn't disagree with that but leave has a higher bar as most referendums stay with the status quo
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,232
    Florida Mason Dixon

    GOP
    Trump 36
    Rubio 30
    Cruz 17
    Kasich 8


    Dems
    Clinton 68
    Sanders 23
    http://www.theledger.com/article/20160310/POLITICS/160319958#document/p1

    Trafalgar Group
    Trump 42
    Rubio 23
    Cruz 21
    Kasich 11

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitU2tUNXhsWUxIQzg/view
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Very interesting that Boris has come out for a Canadian style deal that commenced negotiations in 2009 and is still not in place, 7 years later. The problem for leave is that David Cameron pounced on Boris's choice saying, as he does straight into the camera, '7 years of uncertainty' and not as good a deal as we have now. It strikes me that Boris by coming out for a Canadian deal has compromised anything else as he is such a high profile campaigner. What happens when others in leave suggest EEA OR EFTA or anything else as they will look chaotic as Boris wants the Canada deal.

    Just seen Boris on the news, what he said and the way he said it will resonate with a lot of people.

    No wonder the lily-livered amongst us are rushing to rubbish it.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,232
    Illinois We Ask America

    Trump 33
    Cruz 20
    Kasich 18
    Rubio 11
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Bi-iePG1O6SEFOZXp0ZFFsYWs/view
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,232
    RodCrosby said:

    'The GOP candidates for president had a boring debate last night. My one-word summary is “capitulation.” Based on the energy on stage, it seems they stopped fighting. That means Trump can stroll to the nomination, assuming Florida goes as expected.

    Trump’s only objective at the debate was to avoid looking out of control. He said in advance that he could do so easily unless the other candidates attacked him. And then his opponents did not attack him. That’s acceptance of the final result. Capitulation.

    The other possibility is that Florida and Ohio are already rigged. That would be the other reason for not fighting. We’ll find out next week.

    The thing to watch in coming months is the degree to which Muslim immigration becomes connected to rape in the minds of the public, based on reports from Europe and from ISIS territories. Trump is taking the anti-rape position at the expense of religious tolerance. That is a landslide-winning position against an opponent he has already labelled an “enabler.”

    The hopes of the anti-Trumpers rest on the fact that nearly two-thirds of the public have a negative impression of Trump. In normal times, that would be predictive of the final result. But by November, Trump will turn this election into a referendum on protecting the health and safety of women. And he will be running against the only living human with lower approval than him (by then).

    That’s a landslide position.'

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/140857419526/gop-debate-scorecard-march-10-master-persuader

    Trump has a lower approval rating than Trump
  • Options
    NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268

    I have to say, this new Leaver argument that Cameron was irresponsible to offer a referendum, because leaving might be a disaster, is one of the funniest I've ever seen. Bravo!

    We all know he is being dishonest. We are just pointing out that he is being illogical as well.
    No we don't all know Cameron is being dishonest , in fact I would expect that more than half of pb posters would disagree with you . It is true though that the majority of you bitter and twisted Leavers think everyone is dishonest who does not agree with you , hence you spout words like dishonest and liar in every other post . When Brexit loses the referendum your bitterness will be multiplied ten fold .
    If this referendum is lost that will be just one battle in the war.
    Echoes of the Scots Nats there
    Perhaps but if you think a policy is by far in the best interest of your country, you have every right to keep pushing for it. Especially when current referendum has been on very skewed playing field and unfair limits on Leave supporters.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048

    I have to say, this new Leaver argument that Cameron was irresponsible to offer a referendum, because leaving might be a disaster, is one of the funniest I've ever seen. Bravo!

    We all know he is being dishonest. We are just pointing out that he is being illogical as well.
    No we don't all know Cameron is being dishonest , in fact I would expect that more than half of pb posters would disagree with you . It is true though that the majority of you bitter and twisted Leavers think everyone is dishonest who does not agree with you , hence you spout words like dishonest and liar in every other post . When Brexit loses the referendum your bitterness will be multiplied ten fold .
    So he is just ignorant and reckless then?

    It is one or the other. You choose which you prefer. But basic logic (something I know is in short supply with you Lib Dems) dictates that either he was being reckless making his commitment or he is being dishonest now. You can't have it both ways.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,942
    edited March 2016

    Very interesting that Boris has come out for a Canadian style deal that commenced negotiations in 2009 and is still not in place, 7 years later. The problem for leave is that David Cameron pounced on Boris's choice saying, as he does straight into the camera, '7 years of uncertainty' and not as good a deal as we have now. It strikes me that Boris by coming out for a Canadian deal has compromised anything else as he is such a high profile campaigner. What happens when others in leave suggest EEA OR EFTA or anything else as they will look chaotic as Boris wants the Canada deal.

    No side currently has a killer argument.

    Nor are they likely to get one.
    The killer argument is that any of us can go and live in any one of 27 civilized countries with civilized standards as easily as we could in Scotland or Wales. This might not be relevant to oldies but it's very much in the mind of the young.

    The killer argument wont be made by the old and the young wont be forgiving if we deny them these opportunities
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,036
    Florida GE Matchups:

    Trump 45 (+1)
    Clinton 44 ....
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771

    Very interesting that Boris has come out for a Canadian style deal that commenced negotiations in 2009 and is still not in place, 7 years later. The problem for leave is that David Cameron pounced on Boris's choice saying, as he does straight into the camera, '7 years of uncertainty' and not as good a deal as we have now. It strikes me that Boris by coming out for a Canadian deal has compromised anything else as he is such a high profile campaigner. What happens when others in leave suggest EEA OR EFTA or anything else as they will look chaotic as Boris wants the Canada deal.

    No side currently has a killer argument.

    Nor are they likely to get one.
    I wouldn't disagree with that but leave has a higher bar as most referendums stay with the status quo
    I'd kindly suggest that's guff.

    The problem and you can see it on PB is that the sides are campaigning on a one size fits all basis. I suspect for voters there are a variety of positions.

    Thus for Alistair Meeks who depends on City institutions and multinats remain is perfect sense it;s where he earns his living from. For myself a Midlands manufacturer it makes no economic sense at all on balance it endangers my livelihood.

    Both of us are correct in our assumptions as to how the EU relates to us as individuals.

    Likewise there are other variations of the theme. "Risk" is now overused and meaningless as a statement. There's risk no matter which choice you make. It depends therefore what your priorities are since whatever you choose you are obliged to accept the accompanying risk you can't wish them away. Attempts to make the risk outweigh your natural choice seem doomed to fail imo.

    So if your priority is stability you vote remain and hope that Cameron is correct and he has de-risked UK membership.

    If freedom of action is your priority then you must hope that the shocks from out are manageable and recoverable in the medium term.

    In both cases whatever your prediliction you can't have it all, you will take a hit somewhere along the line. But people should vote for what they want not what they're afraid of.

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    Roger said:

    Very interesting that Boris has come out for a Canadian style deal that commenced negotiations in 2009 and is still not in place, 7 years later. The problem for leave is that David Cameron pounced on Boris's choice saying, as he does straight into the camera, '7 years of uncertainty' and not as good a deal as we have now. It strikes me that Boris by coming out for a Canadian deal has compromised anything else as he is such a high profile campaigner. What happens when others in leave suggest EEA OR EFTA or anything else as they will look chaotic as Boris wants the Canada deal.

    No side currently has a killer argument.

    Nor are they likely to get one.
    The killer argument is that any of us can go and live in any one of 27 civilized countries with civilized standards as easily as we could in Scotland or Wales. This might not be relevant to oldies but it's very much in the mind of the young.

    The killer argument wont be made by the old and the young wont be forgiving if we deny them these opportunities
    The killer argument is that we could before the EU ever existed.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,232
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The killer argument is that we could before the EU ever existed.

    We could also build sailing ships, and die of smallpox before the EU existed.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771
    Roger said:

    Very interesting that Boris has come out for a Canadian style deal that commenced negotiations in 2009 and is still not in place, 7 years later. The problem for leave is that David Cameron pounced on Boris's choice saying, as he does straight into the camera, '7 years of uncertainty' and not as good a deal as we have now. It strikes me that Boris by coming out for a Canadian deal has compromised anything else as he is such a high profile campaigner. What happens when others in leave suggest EEA OR EFTA or anything else as they will look chaotic as Boris wants the Canada deal.

    No side currently has a killer argument.

    Nor are they likely to get one.
    The killer argument is that any of us can go and live in any one of 27 civilized countries with civilized standards as easily as we could in Scotland or Wales. This might not be relevant to oldies but it's very much in the mind of the young.

    The killer argument wont be made by the old and the young wont be forgiving if we deny them these opportunities
    Pah

    call yourself a marketing man ?

    You couldn't segment an orange let alone a market.

    My mate Roger - Soviet advertising for the masses :-)
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Scott_P said:

    The killer argument is that we could before the EU ever existed.

    We could also build sailing ships, and die of smallpox before the EU existed.
    So, the EU is the cure for smallpox?
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    NorfolkTilIDieNorfolkTilIDie Posts: 1,268

    Very interesting that Boris has come out for a Canadian style deal that commenced negotiations in 2009 and is still not in place, 7 years later. The problem for leave is that David Cameron pounced on Boris's choice saying, as he does straight into the camera, '7 years of uncertainty' and not as good a deal as we have now. It strikes me that Boris by coming out for a Canadian deal has compromised anything else as he is such a high profile campaigner. What happens when others in leave suggest EEA OR EFTA or anything else as they will look chaotic as Boris wants the Canada deal.

    The reaction from Cameron and Remain campaign is notable in how weak it is. Even if you accept it at face value, taking a few years to get something done isn't a reason for not doing it if its the right thing. Now Remain would say its not the right thing either, but they aren't making any persuasive arguments to that end. Things like "1% of tariffs still exist" or "a minority of companies would still have to abide by some regulation" sound so lame. Most will hear that and think "if thats the worse that can be said about it, can't be that bad... unlike EU."
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    Scott_P said:

    The killer argument is that we could before the EU ever existed.

    We could also build sailing ships, and die of smallpox before the EU existed.
    So you are equating freedom of movement with smallpox? You are not some sort of xenphobic racist are you?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oh dear.

    the terrible truth about the "Dundee" question time audience has been revealed. It's always the cover up that gets you...

    @RuthDavidsonMSP: .@euanmccolm At least one wasn't Dundonian. He caught up with me outside. Said he went to same school as me (Buckhaven). Now lives in Methil
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    You are not some sort of xenphobic racist are you?

    Not at all. Merely pointing out your desire for time travel has some downsides
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    chestnut said:

    AndyJS said:
    The older groups across all parties seem to be moving to Leave. It seems to be men especially.

    Remain were plus eight among Tories - now minus eighteen.

    One in six ScotNats no longer wants independence. Yes vote now being bumped up by disgruntled 2015 Labour voters.
    16% No voters being SNP voters is about standard.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    chestnut said:

    Scott_P said:

    The killer argument is that we could before the EU ever existed.

    We could also build sailing ships, and die of smallpox before the EU existed.
    So, the EU is the cure for smallpox?
    And apparently the EU is responsible for the eradication of sailing ships as well. BASTARDS!!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BrianSpanner1: Lovely picture as the audience queues for the new Scottish Question Time. https://t.co/MUWtgC4wqf
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    Canada/EU deal, financial services ...

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/708368950887899137
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    Scott_P said:

    You are not some sort of xenphobic racist are you?

    Not at all. Merely pointing out your desire for time travel has some downsides
    No time travel necessary or desired. Simply pointing out the idiocy of the idea that freedom of movement depends upon EU membership.
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