politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef betting numbers remain solid for IN

RodCrosby said:

RodCrosby said:

Pulpstar said:

RodCrosby said:

Looks like Rubio has picked up 5 delegates from Louisiana, after some last-minute rule change or clarification. [I still don't quite see how]
http://www.lagop.com/blog/2016/3/6/lagop-congratulates-donald-trump-on-louisiana-victory
I wish they'd stop doing that!

They'll make up the rules to suit Marco as they go along.

How does a guy who wins 11% statewide pick up a delegate in 5 out of the 6 CDs?
And the CDs weren't even in the mix last time I looked...

Cruz also bumped another delegate in LA, making it 18 apiece with Trump. Cruz therefore won more CD delegates than Trump, despite trailing in the popular vote...

TCPoliticalBetting said:

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TIME TO CHALLENGE POLLING WEIGHTINGS
1. The betting markets are influenced by the polls (Statement of the bleeding obvious).
2. Key to this is how accurate are the polls (2nd Statement of the bleeding obvious).
4. One of the major causes of inaccurate polls for the GE was having too many young voters and too few 65+ Conservative leaning voters in the polling samples.
5. Yougov stated in an recent article that for every voter in 18-24 range there should be 3 in the 65+ range.
6. So why in the 2nd & 3rd March Yougov data was there just a weighting of 197 18-25 and only 356 65+ ? This produced a small REMAIN 3% (40%) lead whereas it probably should have been ?????

At the general election the Tories benefited from support from both high turnout groups, the old and the middle class, at the referendum the middle classes will back Remain while the old will back Leave thus somewhat cancelling each other out

That may be correct. But first why are the polling companies weighting Young voters vs 65+ in a way that is disproportionate with how they voted at the GE?

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TIME TO CHALLENGE POLLING WEIGHTINGS
1. The betting markets are influenced by the polls (Statement of the bleeding obvious).
2. Key to this is how accurate are the polls (2nd Statement of the bleeding obvious).
4. One of the major causes of inaccurate polls for the GE was having too many young voters and too few 65+ Conservative leaning voters in the polling samples.
5. Yougov stated in an recent article that for every voter in 18-24 range there should be 3 in the 65+ range.
6. So why in the 2nd & 3rd March Yougov data was there just a weighting of 197 18-25 and only 356 65+ ? This produced a small REMAIN 3% (40%) lead whereas it probably should have been ?????

RoyalBlue said:

SeanT said:

isam said:

SeanT said:

john_zims said:

Another Labour car crash.


'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.

Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.

He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.

Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'

I begin to think Sadiq Khan is seriously nasty. Not just accident prone or credulous, but actively and dangerously close to Islamism. The evidence is now overwhelming.

This piece of work CANNOT be Mayor of London.

More importantly, how deep does this gangrene go within Labour? If they can let an Islamist fellow traveller like Khan become their mayoral candidate, FOR LONDON, what other sections of the party are quietly rotting away?

Not to mention ethnic quotas

Incredible that he is likely to be our Mayor

The endless parade of damaging, Muslimy stories must be eroding his support. I can't see him picking up many WWC or Jewish/Sikh/Hindu votes.

He will get the Guardianista left, the lower middle class Labour loyalists, and his fellow Muslims. Is that enough? Hmm.

if the Conservatives could mobilise the East European vote, Khan would be crushed like the bug he is. Zac coming out for Leave doesn't help with that.

Speedy said:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/03/trump-kasich-in-tight-ohio-race.html

Trump 38
Kasich 35
Cruz 15
Rubio 5

Trump 40
Kasich 55

I think Kasich is in prime position in Ohio.

EPG said:

peter_from_putney said:

If Kasich is fair value at 12/1 for the Republican nomination, which he probably isn't, then he's great value to become POTUS at 40/1 with Wm. Hill.
DYOR

Nice logic. I do struggle to see a Kasich nomination without a third-party Trump run...

john_zims said:

@foxinsoxuk.


'The Conservatives win the East European vote? Best be quick about that before they all get deported by Bill Cash and his mates!

Sadiq Khan will thrash Zac.'


Are the Lib Dems putting up a candidate or not bothering this time ?

foxinsoxuk said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Someone had a 5000/1 bet on Leciester. Chose to cash out for around £70k rather than hold on and hope for a £250,000 win if they get the title:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-35747633

I am on for a pound each way, but only a poor 3000/1.

Still, it will pay for my season ticket for a decade or so...

isam said:

john_zims said:

@isam

'It wont be long before daring to mention that Khan will do well in Tower Hamlets and Newham will be WAAAAYCIST'


Was the former Mayor of Tower Hamlets also one of Khan's pals ?

I dont know, but the local Tory is quick to make the link

https://twitter.com/going4golds/status/643359744875491328

Pulpstar said:

Rubio will be destroyed by Hillary despite what the polls say, there are about 10 million Trump voters that ain't going to come out if he is robbed.

peter_from_putney said:

JosiasJessop said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Sharapova failed a drugs test at the Australian Open:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/35750285

I can imagine it's easy to do. Then again, she's supposed to be a professional ...

Indeed so, with managers, trainers, doctors and other advisors, etc. to look after her every need.

Speedy said:

I found a problem for Kasich and maybe Cruz:

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/706873628944629761

Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court.
Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.

Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

RoyalBlue said:

SeanT said:

isam said:

SeanT said:

john_zims said:

Another Labour car crash.


'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.

Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.

He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.

Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'

I begin to think Sadiq Khan is seriously nasty. Not just accident prone or credulous, but actively and dangerously close to Islamism. The evidence is now overwhelming.

This piece of work CANNOT be Mayor of London.

More importantly, how deep does this gangrene go within Labour? If they can let an Islamist fellow traveller like Khan become their mayoral candidate, FOR LONDON, what other sections of the party are quietly rotting away?

Not to mention ethnic quotas

Incredible that he is likely to be our Mayor

The endless parade of damaging, Muslimy stories must be eroding his support. I can't see him picking up many WWC or Jewish/Sikh/Hindu votes.

He will get the Guardianista left, the lower middle class Labour loyalists, and his fellow Muslims. Is that enough? Hmm.

if the Conservatives could mobilise the East European vote, Khan would be crushed like the bug he is. Zac coming out for Leave doesn't help with that.

The Conservatives win the East European vote? Best be quick about that before they all get deported by Bill Cash and his mates!

Sadiq Khan will thrash Zac.

Err, I've been out campaigning and every weekend we get Eastern Europeans helping out with leafleting and canvassing, quite a few as well. Eastern Europeans love Boris and they are more conservatively minded, with a small c, so the party appeals to them.

hunchman said:

What a laughing stock the British Chambers of Commerce are! The Kent chief expressed a preference for Remain and didn't lose his job,whilst Mr Longworth honourably resigned over his preference for Leave. This is an organisation that's only mouthpiece pre-2009 was always to call for lower interest rates come what may to encourage more spending. Why should anybody take any notice of what they say any more? Time for M&S, Debenhams, John Lewis et al to form their own breakaway organisation and bring this pathetic charade of the BCC to a close:

http://order-order.com/2016/03/07/remain-supporting-bcc-chief-keeps-job/

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

I found a problem for Kasich and maybe Cruz:

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/706873628944629761

Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court.
Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.

Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.

Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week

I doubt it.
Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio.
Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

I found a problem for Kasich and maybe Cruz:

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/706873628944629761

Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court.
Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.

Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.

Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week

I doubt it.
Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio.
Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.

Pulpstar said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

I found a problem for Kasich and maybe Cruz:

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/706873628944629761

Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court.
Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.

Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.

Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week

I doubt it.
Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio.
Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.

I reckon it'll be Ryan if anyone..

Romney wields the knife so to speak...

Wanderer said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

I found a problem for Kasich and maybe Cruz:

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/706873628944629761

Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court.
Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.

Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.

Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week

I doubt it.
Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio.
Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.

They are not going to crown Romney anything. Firstly, it doubles down on the anti-democratic aspect to pick someone who hasn't even been a candidate, has zero states, zero delegates and zero votes. Secondly, if you are going to bend the rules so far, why do it in favour of a proven loser like Romney?

But the chances of a brokered convention are way less than some people think.

Speedy said:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/03/trump-kasich-in-tight-ohio-race.html

Trump 38
Kasich 35
Cruz 15
Rubio 5

Trump 40
Kasich 55

I think Kasich is in prime position in Ohio.

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

I found a problem for Kasich and maybe Cruz:

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/706873628944629761

Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court.
Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.

Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.

Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week

I doubt it.
Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio.
Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.

'Good chance' perhaps but at the moment Trump leads Ohio, if Kasich loses Ohio he is gone. If Rubio loses Florida he is also out and would get virtually no further delegates even if he stayed in anyway, Romney has zero chance of being nominee, neither Trump nor Cruz delegates will vote for him

OllyT said:

Speedy said:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/03/trump-kasich-in-tight-ohio-race.html

Trump 38
Kasich 35
Cruz 15
Rubio 5

Trump 40
Kasich 55

I think Kasich is in prime position in Ohio.

If Trump is still competitive (ahead by 3) post debate, on Katich's home turf then I would say he's home and dry overall.

Why have you ignored the Fox2Detroit Michigan poll which was carried out all post debate and gives Trump a 22% lead. You have told us that all the post debate polls show Trump's lead vanishing which is shall we say a little economical with the truth.

Seriously if anyone is daft enough to be betting on your tips they will be bankrupt by the end of the month!.

Pulpstar said:

OllyT said:

Speedy said:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/03/trump-kasich-in-tight-ohio-race.html

Trump 38
Kasich 35
Cruz 15
Rubio 5

Trump 40
Kasich 55

I think Kasich is in prime position in Ohio.

If Trump is still competitive (ahead by 3) post debate, on Katich's home turf then I would say he's home and dry overall.

Why have you ignored the Fox2Detroit Michigan poll which was carried out all post debate and gives Trump a 22% lead. You have told us that all the post debate polls show Trump's lead vanishing which is shall we say a little economical with the truth.

Seriously if anyone is daft enough to be betting on your tips they will be bankrupt by the end of the month!.

We all need to make our own judgements as bettors, @Speedy isn't responsible for anyone's trading decisions.

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

I found a problem for Kasich and maybe Cruz:

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/706873628944629761

Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court.
Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.

Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.

Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week

I doubt it.
Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio.
Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.

'Good chance' perhaps but at the moment Trump leads Ohio, if Kasich loses Ohio he is gone. If Rubio loses Florida he is also out and would get virtually no further delegates even if he stayed in anyway, Romney has zero chance of being nominee, neither Trump nor Cruz delegates will vote for him

Here is the key component of the Romney plan.

The delegates are bound to the candidates only in the first round.
If it goes to the second round they can vote for whoever they like.
And delegates selected to represent Trump and Cruz will probably be hand picked by the GOP to vote for the one they order on the second ballot.

Trump and Cruz will need the best legal team and lots of detailed organization to make sure their delegates are loyal to them and the GOP doesn't change the rules too much before the convention.

Goodnight.

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Wanderer said:

Pulpstar said:

EPG said:

peter_from_putney said:

If Kasich is fair value at 12/1 for the Republican nomination, which he probably isn't, then he's great value to become POTUS at 40/1 with Wm. Hill.
DYOR

Nice logic. I do struggle to see a Kasich nomination without a third-party Trump run...

To be honest there's probably no value in either Kasich POTUS or GOP. But perhaps GOP is better. The GOP have to essentially break their own rules (Severely) for it to be anyone other than Trump or Cruz right now.
But who is to say they won't ?

Anyway my GOP book looks more valuable than ever right now so I've more or less levelled it off.

Is it just plausible that:

Kasich wins Michigan
Kasich wins Ohio and gives appearance of momentum
Rubio loses Florida and drops out on the same day
In a 3-way contest Kasich emerges as a "better Rubio" and ends up close to Cruz (assuming Cruz is second) in delegates.
In the fabled brokered convention he is: 1) not significantly more of a stitch-up than Cruz and 2) has the delightful advantage of actually being likely to win the election.

The odds on that are a damn sight longer than 12/1

No one who commits the stitch up in the convention will win the GE.
The supporters of the candidates who lose at the convention will riot in the streets.

And Trump & Cruz supporters are not ordinary people, they are fanatics and most of them armed fanatics.

These democrats in 1968 were not armed to the teeth:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUKzSsVmnpY

Of course in 1968 Humphrey almost beat Nixon who won by less than 1%, when the anti war McGovern won the nomination in 1972 Nixon trounced him

Pong said:

@speedy

Perhaps I'm not getting something, but the link in your tweet said;

"Mitt Romney has filed paperwork with FEC to run in the current election"

Where's the evidence?

Scott_P said:

@bpolitics: Michael Bloomberg Says He Won't Run for President in 2016 https://t.co/BPVRAwsilM

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Wanderer said:

Pulpstar said:

EPG said:

peter_from_putney said:

If Kasich is fair value at 12/1 for the Republican nomination, which he probably isn't, then he's great value to become POTUS at 40/1 with Wm. Hill.
DYOR

Nice logic. I do struggle to see a Kasich nomination without a third-party Trump run...

To be honest there's probably no value in either Kasich POTUS or GOP. But perhaps GOP is better. The GOP have to essentially break their own rules (Severely) for it to be anyone other than Trump or Cruz right now.
But who is to say they won't ?

Anyway my GOP book looks more valuable than ever right now so I've more or less levelled it off.

Is it just plausible that:

Kasich wins Michigan
Kasich wins Ohio and gives appearance of momentum
Rubio loses Florida and drops out on the same day
In a 3-way contest Kasich emerges as a "better Rubio" and ends up close to Cruz (assuming Cruz is second) in delegates.
In the fabled brokered convention he is: 1) not significantly more of a stitch-up than Cruz and 2) has the delightful advantage of actually being likely to win the election.

The odds on that are a damn sight longer than 12/1

No one who commits the stitch up in the convention will win the GE.
The supporters of the candidates who lose at the convention will riot in the streets.

And Trump & Cruz supporters are not ordinary people, they are fanatics and most of them armed fanatics.

These democrats in 1968 were not armed to the teeth:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUKzSsVmnpY

Of course in 1968 Humphrey almost beat Nixon who won by less than 1%, when the anti war McGovern won the nomination in 1972 Nixon trounced him

That is a great piece of video. HH would have been a great President.

Pulpstar said:

Scott_P said:

@bpolitics: Michael Bloomberg Says He Won't Run for President in 2016 https://t.co/BPVRAwsilM

Now can Betfair please please please put him to 1000-1.

Pulpstar said:

OllyT said:

Speedy said:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/03/trump-kasich-in-tight-ohio-race.html

Trump 38
Kasich 35
Cruz 15
Rubio 5

Trump 40
Kasich 55

I think Kasich is in prime position in Ohio.

If Trump is still competitive (ahead by 3) post debate, on Katich's home turf then I would say he's home and dry overall.

Why have you ignored the Fox2Detroit Michigan poll which was carried out all post debate and gives Trump a 22% lead. You have told us that all the post debate polls show Trump's lead vanishing which is shall we say a little economical with the truth.

Seriously if anyone is daft enough to be betting on your tips they will be bankrupt by the end of the month!.

We all need to make our own judgements as bettors, @Speedy isn't responsible for anyone's trading decisions.

TheKitchenCabinet said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

I found a problem for Kasich and maybe Cruz:

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/706873628944629761

Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court.
Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.

Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.

Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week

I doubt it.
Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio.
Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.

'Good chance' perhaps but at the moment Trump leads Ohio, if Kasich loses Ohio he is gone. If Rubio loses Florida he is also out and would get virtually no further delegates even if he stayed in anyway, Romney has zero chance of being nominee, neither Trump nor Cruz delegates will vote for him

Here is the key component of the Romney plan.

The delegates are bound to the candidates only in the first round.
If it goes to the second round they can vote for whoever they like.
And delegates selected to represent Trump and Cruz will probably be hand picked by the GOP to vote for the one they order on the second ballot.

Trump and Cruz will need the best legal team and lots of detailed organization to make sure their delegates are loyal to them and the GOP doesn't change the rules too much before the convention.

Goodnight.

Delegates elected to vote for Trump and Cruz will be Trump and Cruz supporters, they are certainly not going to vote for Romney.

I think the other problem with Romney's plan - if that is what he is planning - is that I do not think Cruz would go along with it: if Trump is deemed to be unfairly denied, it will split the Republicans in two; but if Cruz vetoes what is seen to be unfair machinations directed at Trump, then he is in a good position to pick up Trump's support base if the latter loses the election to HRC. Cruz is young enough to be able to go again in 2020.

Pulpstar said:

Knowing Betfair Michael Bloomberg will probably head back in at some point, so I've spent the full £2 to green him up.

Speedy said:

Pulpstar said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

I found a problem for Kasich and maybe Cruz:

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/706873628944629761

Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court.
Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.

Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.

Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week

I doubt it.
Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio.
Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.

I reckon it'll be Ryan if anyone..

Romney wields the knife so to speak...

Oh it will be Romney if it goes to the convention alright:

https://twitter.com/randyprine/status/706871442835542016

https://twitter.com/WashTimes/status/706507945471844352

Romney is using Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio to snatch the nomination for himself.

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Knowing Betfair Michael Bloomberg will probably head back in at some point, so I've spent the full £2 to green him up.

D-day is Friday, with a possible extension over the weekend. But my friend thinks he'll bottle it.

Tykejohnno said:

Carole Malone ‏@thecarolemalone
Hounding John Longworth out of his job was shameful. What next - Cameron having people arrested for what they think http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/turning-britain-democracy-dictatorship-hounding-7511809 …

Front of the mail doesn't look good for No10.

hunchman said:

HYUFD said:

hunchman said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

I found a problem for Kasich and maybe Cruz:

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/706873628944629761

Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court.
Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.

Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.

Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week

I doubt it.
Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio.
Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.

This is a good clip about Romney and the GOP. I think long term Trump would be better served by losing the nomination, and being seen to lose the nomination in an unfair way due to the machinations of the GOP, and then be positioned well in 2020 with events dear boy events. Whoever becomes POTUS next January will not be a two term president, the oncoming sovereign debt crisis will see to that, and global capital flows will be very disruptive to the US over 2017-2020 with a much much stronger US dollar:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/the-coming-insurrection-inside-the-republican-party/

I highly doubt global capital flows will determine the 2020 election, nor will a strong US dollar

Capital flows in times of trouble become a political issue, as politicians come under pressure to put in place capital controls. It happened in the Great Depression and I predict it will happen over the next 4 years too. The US will come under pressure from its exporters with the strong US dollar unable to sell much abroad. And the Federal Reserve has already come under massive pressure from the rest of the world - Janet Yellen wanted to raise US interest rates last June and was ambushed by the IMF - the US is facing a classic conflicting objective in setting monetary policy from domestic considerations as well as international considerations. Emerging market countries were screaming at the US not to raise rates owing to many of them having a large amount of US$ debt - they've issued $9 trillion in US debt since 2008 alone. That bill is coming due, and isn't going to be a happy one with the strengthening US dollar.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

HYUFD said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TIME TO CHALLENGE POLLING WEIGHTINGS
1. The betting markets are influenced by the polls (Statement of the bleeding obvious).
2. Key to this is how accurate are the polls (2nd Statement of the bleeding obvious).
4. One of the major causes of inaccurate polls for the GE was having too many young voters and too few 65+ Conservative leaning voters in the polling samples.
5. Yougov stated in an recent article that for every voter in 18-24 range there should be 3 in the 65+ range.
6. So why in the 2nd & 3rd March Yougov data was there just a weighting of 197 18-25 and only 356 65+ ? This produced a small REMAIN 3% (40%) lead whereas it probably should have been ?????

At the general election the Tories benefited from support from both high turnout groups, the old and the middle class, at the referendum the middle classes will back Remain while the old will back Leave thus somewhat cancelling each other out

That may be correct. But first why are the polling companies weighting Young voters vs 65+ in a way that is disproportionate with how they voted at the GE?

Nearly 60% of 18-24s voted at the general election according to the BES, a bit lower than the overall figure of 66% but not vastly so
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-highest-turnout-since-1997-10235076.html

"Although we’ll never know precisely how the different generations voted in 2015, best estimates suggest that around 43% of 18-24 year olds voted compared to around 78% of over 65s. With 6m 18-24 year olds in the UK and over 11 million over 65s that means that the over 65s carry more than three and a half times more weight than the youngest cohort."

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/26/analysis-dont-get-too-comfortable-out-campaign-has/

The BES data is from just a few days after the GE. The Yougov data is from last month. As well as turnout there are almost twice as many 65+ people than in the 18-24 segment.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

How much longer will the news be filled with migrant problems? Can it really go on for 4 more months? The news tonight on the EU considering setting a timetable for Turkey's entry to the EU and dropping visa requirements etc hardly helps the REMAIN cause. Or do our PB REMAINERS see this all as mere flesh wounds?