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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef betting numbers remain solid for IN
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef betting numbers remain solid for IN
The above graphic created by Michael Dent is updated every 20 minutes and show the latest Betfair betting price on the June 23rd EU referendum. The default position is to show odds as a percentage but punters might like to click the DEC odds tab,
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But less about a brokered covention
15% Michigan - polls on 12-14%
15% Mississippi - poll on 16% (got just 11.2% in neighbouring Louisiana - less than polls)
20% Idaho - poll on 16%
South Wales West
1) Caroline Jones 2) Martyn Ford 3) Colin Beckett 4) Malcolm Biggs
South Wales East
1) Mark Reckless 2) David Rawlands 3) Susan Boucher 4) Julie Price
South Wales Central
1) Gareth Bennett 2) Alex Phillips 3) Mohammed Islam 4) Liz Wilks
North Wales
1) Nathan Gill MEP 2) Michelle Brown 3) Mandy Jones 4) David Edwards
Mid and West Wales
1) Neil Hamilton 2) Gethin James 3) Des Parkinson 4) Howard Lillymam
'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.
Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.
He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.
Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/461774/US+Government+Special.html
I couldn't see another way to monetise this except back Trump in Florida on pretty short odds.
It's already advantage Trump though.
It is his insults to homosexuals and women that are far far worse.
What is Rubio doing still being in this ? Kasich is presumably thinking VP but Trump and Cruz would both have a toss up between Rubio and Sanders for that role. As well as being an astonishingly incompetent candidate he now looks like a really bad loser as well.
'That bit is humour. Crass and asinine, but humour nevertheless.
It is his insults to homosexuals and women that are far far worse.'
What is it with Khan & his pals ?
GOP
Trump 45
Rubio 18
Kasich 18
Cruz 11
Dems
Clinton 55
Sanders 34
General election
Clinton 57
Trump 34
Clinton 56
Rubio 35
Clinton 49
Kasich 42
Clinton 58
Cruz 33
Sanders 57
Trump 33
Sanders 58
Rubio 32
Sanders 54
Kasich 35
Sanders 63
Cruz 26
Clinton 42
Trump 25
Bloomberg 26
Sanders 42
Trump 24
Bloomberg 28
https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_March_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf
Monmouth
Trump 38
Rubio 30
Cruz 17
Kasich 10
Trump blows another 20 point pre-debate lead.
Marc CaputoVerified account @MarcACaputo 4m4 minutes ago
Florida poll: Rubio trails Trump by 8 points, almost ties in head-to-head & is soundly winning early ballots cast http://politi.co/1OXKqut
Sanders 47
Clinton 45
http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/905-poll-trump-leads-in-idaho-ahead-of-tuesday-s-primary
You would be betting on a migrant melt down/ Euro collapse before June. By the people who have made kick the can a continental sport. Just not going to happen. And Cameron? He plays hard ball.
The US is much more interesting.
It could be a methodology problem with Monmouth polls that show Trump's lead collapsing in both Michigan and Florida, but those and ARG are the only post debate polls published so far.
We will see tomorrow, the Saturday results indicate a real problem for Trump, the Tuesday results will give us the full extent of the damage.
Incredible that he is likely to be our Mayor
But with Trump always underperforming his poll numbers by 5% on average, these polls really turn the heat on Trump.
By the way I think that my commentary on the debates so far are more valuable that what the consensus verdicts are.
If someone followed my advice on Friday morning, based on my debate verdict, and placed a bet on Cruz and shorted Trump he would have made money with the Saturday results.
Bit more on Ted, £50 less on Trump maybe.
Given the twists we've already seen in this campaign, who knows? Ted Cruz was 70.0 for RepNom less than 10 days ago.
'Incredible that he is likely to be our Mayor'
Doubt it with all his baggage, it would have been a walk in the park for Jowell
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
N.H. is the only state that Trump beat the polls.
It could be a methodology problem, that's why we have to wait for tomorrow's results to see if Monmouth is accurate.
Rubio +1110.09
Cruz +1230.34
Kasich +1165.54
Carson +256.82
Ryan +924.77
Romney +907.43
Bush +771.12
C Christie +1070.81
Fiorina +59.78
Uncle Tom Cobley +232.69
Good Idaho poll, remember a primary not a caucus so the evangelicals and mormons won't be bussed in like in KS. Still a strong second more likely, which is good enough. Oh for a more recent poll.
And yes, I probably will be back in
Marco Rubio's at 5% in the Ohio poll we'll release later today. 33/51 favorability with GOP voters
Looks like Kasich will get a lead in Ohio.
That's 8 points bellow Rubio's polling average, if it has all gone to Kasich then he is in the lead.
The Fox2Detroit Michigan poll on the other hand has fieldwork that was entirely post debate on 6th and gives Trump a 22% lead.
So far one of Khan's colleagues has been shown to be a clown. If you look closely at Cameron's Bullingdon photo you'll see that's not uncommon among politicians mates and that's before you even get to Andy Coulson ....... yet he became and remained PM.
Time to smell the Yaks milk and go visit some phalluses.
Another finding from Ohio- if GOP voters had to pick between Trump and Romney, they'd take Trump 52/36
Kasich should be around 31% then, if Rubio has 5%.
'ThyssenKrupp Woodhead: Flooded spring factory set to close'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-35744975
Added bonus:
'Options are being considered for a new production site, with "Eastern Europe the most likely location", the company said.'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-35747633
Your conclusion is solid, Kasich could easily be on 31%. Your methodology isn't.
It's the only way to explain your repeated (and increasingly desperate) posts on here trying to "prove" it's all over for him.
Hopefully we'll get the crossbreaks later.
Incidentally if you split the 52% even slightly unevenly, Kasich no longer leads.
So I'm now a tranquil observer, not having to worry about the betting odds going up and down like on a trampoline.
'Boris only won because of a huge victory margin in the suburbs and I just don't see Zac having the same appeal to white van man!'
Khan is doing a great job motivating voters in the suburbs to turn out.
I feel this would work better with Trump, but never mind.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/e2hjduyzxn/LBCResults_London_Mayor_160106_Website.pdf
http://www.lagop.com/blog/2016/3/6/lagop-congratulates-donald-trump-on-louisiana-victory
I wish they'd stop doing that!
I came on the Trump train in May and last I bet on him just after the new year.
Also a bit on Carson way back when he first announced, but I regretted it a bit after he collapsed in late November, Trump doing a Columbo impersonation to dissect Carson was unexpected.
So I'm fine and stress free to observe the car crash from a safe distance.
A Khan win helps shore up Corbyn even if the locals are bad. And if Khan is less than stellar, he's another target for the Conservatives to attack.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/35750285
And the CDs weren't even in the mix last time I looked...
1. The betting markets are influenced by the polls (Statement of the bleeding obvious).
2. Key to this is how accurate are the polls (2nd Statement of the bleeding obvious).
4. One of the major causes of inaccurate polls for the GE was having too many young voters and too few 65+ Conservative leaning voters in the polling samples.
5. Yougov stated in an recent article that for every voter in 18-24 range there should be 3 in the 65+ range.
6. So why in the 2nd & 3rd March Yougov data was there just a weighting of 197 18-25 and only 356 65+ ? This produced a small REMAIN 3% (40%) lead whereas it probably should have been ?????
'It wont be long before daring to mention that Khan will do well in Tower Hamlets and Newham will be WAAAAYCIST'
Was the former Mayor of Tower Hamlets also one of Khan's pals ?