They'll make up the rules to suit Marco as they go along.
How does a guy who wins 11% statewide pick up a delegate in 5 out of the 6 CDs? And the CDs weren't even in the mix last time I looked...
Cruz also bumped another delegate in LA, making it 18 apiece with Trump. Cruz therefore won more CD delegates than Trump, despite trailing in the popular vote...
They'll make up the rules to suit Marco as they go along.
How does a guy who wins 11% statewide pick up a delegate in 5 out of the 6 CDs? And the CDs weren't even in the mix last time I looked...
Cruz also bumped another delegate in LA, making it 18 apiece with Trump. Cruz therefore won more CD delegates than Trump, despite trailing in the popular vote...
If Kasich is fair value at 12/1 for the Republican nomination, which he probably isn't, then he's great value to become POTUS at 40/1 with Wm. Hill. DYOR
TIME TO CHALLENGE POLLING WEIGHTINGS 1. The betting markets are influenced by the polls (Statement of the bleeding obvious). 2. Key to this is how accurate are the polls (2nd Statement of the bleeding obvious). 4. One of the major causes of inaccurate polls for the GE was having too many young voters and too few 65+ Conservative leaning voters in the polling samples. 5. Yougov stated in an recent article that for every voter in 18-24 range there should be 3 in the 65+ range. 6. So why in the 2nd & 3rd March Yougov data was there just a weighting of 197 18-25 and only 356 65+ ? This produced a small REMAIN 3% (40%) lead whereas it probably should have been ?????
At the general election the Tories benefited from support from both high turnout groups, the old and the middle class, at the referendum the middle classes will back Remain while the old will back Leave thus somewhat cancelling each other out
That may be correct. But first why are the polling companies weighting Young voters vs 65+ in a way that is disproportionate with how they voted at the GE?
If Kasich is fair value at 12/1 for the Republican nomination, which he probably isn't, then he's great value to become POTUS at 40/1 with Wm. Hill. DYOR
Nice logic. I do struggle to see a Kasich nomination without a third-party Trump run...
They'll make up the rules to suit Marco as they go along.
How does a guy who wins 11% statewide pick up a delegate in 5 out of the 6 CDs? And the CDs weren't even in the mix last time I looked...
Cruz also bumped another delegate in LA, making it 18 apiece with Trump. Cruz therefore won more CD delegates than Trump, despite trailing in the popular vote...
Starting to smell some rather large rats ?
Dunno. Does LA now count as a win for both Cruz and Trump?
I have more than a little sympathy for her, if her excuse turns out to be true.
He was taking a substance for ten years as prescribed by a doctor, and then that substance was added to the banned drugs list in January. Yet she knew it by a different (non-generic?) name.
I can imagine it's easy to do. Then again, she's supposed to be a professional ...
TIME TO CHALLENGE POLLING WEIGHTINGS 1. The betting markets are influenced by the polls (Statement of the bleeding obvious). 2. Key to this is how accurate are the polls (2nd Statement of the bleeding obvious). 4. One of the major causes of inaccurate polls for the GE was having too many young voters and too few 65+ Conservative leaning voters in the polling samples. 5. Yougov stated in an recent article that for every voter in 18-24 range there should be 3 in the 65+ range. 6. So why in the 2nd & 3rd March Yougov data was there just a weighting of 197 18-25 and only 356 65+ ? This produced a small REMAIN 3% (40%) lead whereas it probably should have been ?????
Hmm. This sounds like polling trutherism, as practised by Republicans in 2012.
If Kasich is fair value at 12/1 for the Republican nomination, which he probably isn't, then he's great value to become POTUS at 40/1 with Wm. Hill. DYOR
Nice logic. I do struggle to see a Kasich nomination without a third-party Trump run...
I agree, I'm working on a many a slip twixt cup and lip basis.
'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.
Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.
He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.
Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'
I begin to think Sadiq Khan is seriously nasty. Not just accident prone or credulous, but actively and dangerously close to Islamism. The evidence is now overwhelming.
This piece of work CANNOT be Mayor of London.
More importantly, how deep does this gangrene go within Labour? If they can let an Islamist fellow traveller like Khan become their mayoral candidate, FOR LONDON, what other sections of the party are quietly rotting away?
Not to mention ethnic quotas
Incredible that he is likely to be our Mayor
The endless parade of damaging, Muslimy stories must be eroding his support. I can't see him picking up many WWC or Jewish/Sikh/Hindu votes.
He will get the Guardianista left, the lower middle class Labour loyalists, and his fellow Muslims. Is that enough? Hmm.
if the Conservatives could mobilise the East European vote, Khan would be crushed like the bug he is. Zac coming out for Leave doesn't help with that.
The Conservatives win the East European vote? Best be quick about that before they all get deported by Bill Cash and his mates!
He is the Governor of the state, Kasich should be leading Trump by 10 points in Ohio, not trailing him. One on one he may have a clear lead but it will not be one on one and he has to win his homestate to stay in the race
If Kasich is fair value at 12/1 for the Republican nomination, which he probably isn't, then he's great value to become POTUS at 40/1 with Wm. Hill. DYOR
Nice logic. I do struggle to see a Kasich nomination without a third-party Trump run...
To be honest there's probably no value in either Kasich POTUS or GOP. But perhaps GOP is better. The GOP have to essentially break their own rules (Severely) for it to be anyone other than Trump or Cruz right now. But who is to say they won't ?
Anyway my GOP book looks more valuable than ever right now so I've more or less levelled it off.
I am on for a pound each way, but only a poor 3000/1.
Still, it will pay for my season ticket for a decade or so...
I don't know if the punter in the bbc article did this or not, but...
If you are going to cash out a payout that size on a fixed odds bet, rather than clicking the cashout button, it's probably worth calling up the bookie in question and negotiating a payout as close as possible to the betfair exchange odds. I'd expect to be able to increase the payout by a few per cent.
In exchange for publicity, the bookies might be even more generous.
Bottom of page 8 shows the weakness of your Romney/Trump analysis before. Far more corssover
My rule of thumb wasn't far off thought. I said that Trump+Cruz is 52% and Kasich+Rubio is 36% based on the Trump/Romney numbers leaked, and the result was 53% and 40%.
If Kasich is fair value at 12/1 for the Republican nomination, which he probably isn't, then he's great value to become POTUS at 40/1 with Wm. Hill. DYOR
Nice logic. I do struggle to see a Kasich nomination without a third-party Trump run...
To be honest there's probably no value in either Kasich POTUS or GOP. But perhaps GOP is better. The GOP have to essentially break their own rules (Severely) for it to be anyone other than Trump or Cruz right now. But who is to say they won't ?
Anyway my GOP book looks more valuable than ever right now so I've more or less levelled it off.
If Trump or Cruz win a majority of delegates they are the nominee and the GOP establishment can do nothing about it
Rubio will be destroyed by Hillary despite what the polls say, there are about 10 million Trump voters that ain't going to come out if he is robbed.
Look at Rubio's favourability among republicans in Ohio he's at 33/51 for -18, the worst numbers of all candidates, even worse than Romney. If it's Rubio vs Hillary in Ohio you can guess the result.
I am on for a pound each way, but only a poor 3000/1.
Still, it will pay for my season ticket for a decade or so...
I don't know if the punter in the bbc article did this or not, but...
If you are going to cash out a payout that size on a fixed odds bet, rather than clicking the cashout button, it's probably worth calling up the bookie in question and negotiating a payout as close as possible to the betfair exchange odds. I'd expect to be able to increase the payout by a few per cent.
In exchange for publicity, the bookies might be even more generous.
I am not cashing out though! Too much fun, but may not endear me to Ladbrokes.
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
If Kasich is fair value at 12/1 for the Republican nomination, which he probably isn't, then he's great value to become POTUS at 40/1 with Wm. Hill. DYOR
Nice logic. I do struggle to see a Kasich nomination without a third-party Trump run...
To be honest there's probably no value in either Kasich POTUS or GOP. But perhaps GOP is better. The GOP have to essentially break their own rules (Severely) for it to be anyone other than Trump or Cruz right now. But who is to say they won't ?
Anyway my GOP book looks more valuable than ever right now so I've more or less levelled it off.
Is it just plausible that:
Kasich wins Michigan Kasich wins Ohio and gives appearance of momentum Rubio loses Florida and drops out on the same day In a 3-way contest Kasich emerges as a "better Rubio" and ends up close to Cruz (assuming Cruz is second) in delegates. In the fabled brokered convention he is: 1) not significantly more of a stitch-up than Cruz and 2) has the delightful advantage of actually being likely to win the election.
The odds on that are a damn sight longer than 12/1
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.
Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.
He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.
Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'
I begin to think Sadiq Khan is seriously nasty. Not just accident prone or credulous, but actively and dangerously close to Islamism. The evidence is now overwhelming.
This piece of work CANNOT be Mayor of London.
More importantly, how deep does this gangrene go within Labour? If they can let an Islamist fellow traveller like Khan become their mayoral candidate, FOR LONDON, what other sections of the party are quietly rotting away?
Not to mention ethnic quotas
Incredible that he is likely to be our Mayor
The endless parade of damaging, Muslimy stories must be eroding his support. I can't see him picking up many WWC or Jewish/Sikh/Hindu votes.
He will get the Guardianista left, the lower middle class Labour loyalists, and his fellow Muslims. Is that enough? Hmm.
if the Conservatives could mobilise the East European vote, Khan would be crushed like the bug he is. Zac coming out for Leave doesn't help with that.
The Conservatives win the East European vote? Best be quick about that before they all get deported by Bill Cash and his mates!
Sadiq Khan will thrash Zac.
Err, I've been out campaigning and every weekend we get Eastern Europeans helping out with leafleting and canvassing, quite a few as well. Eastern Europeans love Boris and they are more conservatively minded, with a small c, so the party appeals to them.
What a laughing stock the British Chambers of Commerce are! The Kent chief expressed a preference for Remain and didn't lose his job,whilst Mr Longworth honourably resigned over his preference for Leave. This is an organisation that's only mouthpiece pre-2009 was always to call for lower interest rates come what may to encourage more spending. Why should anybody take any notice of what they say any more? Time for M&S, Debenhams, John Lewis et al to form their own breakaway organisation and bring this pathetic charade of the BCC to a close:
I have more than a little sympathy for her, if her excuse turns out to be true.
He was taking a substance for ten years as prescribed by a doctor, and then that substance was added to the banned drugs list in January. Yet she knew it by a different (non-generic?) name.
I can imagine it's easy to do. Then again, she's supposed to be a professional ...
Tennis authorities are a joke both on the testing front and also medical advice etc. Remember Greg Rusedski failed a doping test, due to being prescribed a drug by the official tour doctors which was on the banned list.
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
'An aide to Labour mayoral candidate Sadiq Khan resigned today after the Evening Standard found pictures of him brandishing a gun and claiming he could be a hired “hitman”.
Shueb Salar posted a video online of himself with a rifle and bragged about spending a weekend “shooting stuff with real guns, knives, crossbows and bow and arrows”.
He added the joke comments #I’mASecretHitman and #ShoutMeIfYouWantMeToTakeCareOfSomeone and #I’llMakeItLookLikeAnAccident.
Mr Salar also added emoticons showing a knife, a pistol and a thumb’s up.'
I begin to think Sadiq Khan is seriously nasty. Not just accident prone or credulous, but actively and dangerously close to Islamism. The evidence is now overwhelming.
This piece of work CANNOT be Mayor of London.
More importantly, how deep does this gangrene go within Labour? If they can let an Islamist fellow traveller like Khan become their mayoral candidate, FOR LONDON, what other sections of the party are quietly rotting away?
Not to mention ethnic quotas
Incredible that he is likely to be our Mayor
The endless parade of damaging, Muslimy stories must be eroding his support. I can't see him picking up many WWC or Jewish/Sikh/Hindu votes.
He will get the Guardianista left, the lower middle class Labour loyalists, and his fellow Muslims. Is that enough? Hmm.
if the Conservatives could mobilise the East European vote, Khan would be crushed like the bug he is. Zac coming out for Leave doesn't help with that.
The Conservatives win the East European vote? Best be quick about that before they all get deported by Bill Cash and his mates!
Sadiq Khan will thrash Zac.
Err, I've been out campaigning and every weekend we get Eastern Europeans helping out with leafleting and canvassing, quite a few as well. Eastern Europeans love Boris and they are more conservatively minded, with a small c, so the party appeals to them.
A Number 10 spokeswoman admitted there had been a conversation between an official and the business group but refused to give a "blow-by-blow" account of discussions and denied there was any pressure for Mr Longworth to be suspended.
What a laughing stock the British Chambers of Commerce are! The Kent chief expressed a preference for Remain and didn't lose his job,whilst Mr Longworth honourably resigned over his preference for Leave. This is an organisation that's only mouthpiece pre-2009 was always to call for lower interest rates come what may to encourage more spending. Why should anybody take any notice of what they say any more? Time for M&S, Debenhams, John Lewis et al to form their own breakaway organisation and bring this pathetic charade of the BCC to a close:
I think you will find that he was initially suspended for stating his position and then it was mutually agreed by his board and himself that he would resign. However the whole story from both sides is, like most of this campaign so far, just tedious. At least Sharapova has proved that other news items are happening
If Kasich is fair value at 12/1 for the Republican nomination, which he probably isn't, then he's great value to become POTUS at 40/1 with Wm. Hill. DYOR
Nice logic. I do struggle to see a Kasich nomination without a third-party Trump run...
To be honest there's probably no value in either Kasich POTUS or GOP. But perhaps GOP is better. The GOP have to essentially break their own rules (Severely) for it to be anyone other than Trump or Cruz right now. But who is to say they won't ?
Anyway my GOP book looks more valuable than ever right now so I've more or less levelled it off.
Is it just plausible that:
Kasich wins Michigan Kasich wins Ohio and gives appearance of momentum Rubio loses Florida and drops out on the same day In a 3-way contest Kasich emerges as a "better Rubio" and ends up close to Cruz (assuming Cruz is second) in delegates. In the fabled brokered convention he is: 1) not significantly more of a stitch-up than Cruz and 2) has the delightful advantage of actually being likely to win the election.
The odds on that are a damn sight longer than 12/1
I am +1255 net at the bookies on Kasich so can't really extract without tieing up capital on Betfair anyway. Some at 33s and some at 40s so not too much capital tied up.
Just will keep him at zero in the POTUS market or slightly below zero...
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
If Kasich is fair value at 12/1 for the Republican nomination, which he probably isn't, then he's great value to become POTUS at 40/1 with Wm. Hill. DYOR
Nice logic. I do struggle to see a Kasich nomination without a third-party Trump run...
To be honest there's probably no value in either Kasich POTUS or GOP. But perhaps GOP is better. The GOP have to essentially break their own rules (Severely) for it to be anyone other than Trump or Cruz right now. But who is to say they won't ?
Anyway my GOP book looks more valuable than ever right now so I've more or less levelled it off.
Is it just plausible that:
Kasich wins Michigan Kasich wins Ohio and gives appearance of momentum Rubio loses Florida and drops out on the same day In a 3-way contest Kasich emerges as a "better Rubio" and ends up close to Cruz (assuming Cruz is second) in delegates. In the fabled brokered convention he is: 1) not significantly more of a stitch-up than Cruz and 2) has the delightful advantage of actually being likely to win the election.
The odds on that are a damn sight longer than 12/1
No one who commits the stitch up in the convention will win the GE. The supporters of the candidates who lose at the convention will riot in the streets.
And Trump & Cruz supporters are not ordinary people, they are fanatics and most of them armed fanatics.
These democrats in 1968 were not armed to the teeth:
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
'Good chance' perhaps but at the moment Trump leads Ohio, if Kasich loses Ohio he is gone. If Rubio loses Florida he is also out and would get virtually no further delegates even if he stayed in anyway, Romney has zero chance of being nominee, neither Trump nor Cruz delegates will vote for him
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
This is a good clip about Romney and the GOP. I think long term Trump would be better served by losing the nomination, and being seen to lose the nomination in an unfair way due to the machinations of the GOP, and then be positioned well in 2020 with events dear boy events. Whoever becomes POTUS next January will not be a two term president, the oncoming sovereign debt crisis will see to that, and global capital flows will be very disruptive to the US over 2017-2020 with a much much stronger US dollar:
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
They are not going to crown Romney anything. Firstly, it doubles down on the anti-democratic aspect to pick someone who hasn't even been a candidate, has zero states, zero delegates and zero votes. Secondly, if you are going to bend the rules so far, why do it in favour of a proven loser like Romney?
But the chances of a brokered convention are way less than some people think.
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
I reckon it'll be Ryan if anyone..
Romney wields the knife so to speak...
Oh it will be Romney if it goes to the convention alright:
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
They are not going to crown Romney anything. Firstly, it doubles down on the anti-democratic aspect to pick someone who hasn't even been a candidate, has zero states, zero delegates and zero votes. Secondly, if you are going to bend the rules so far, why do it in favour of a proven loser like Romney?
But the chances of a brokered convention are way less than some people think.
When was the last time the GOP establishment cared about democracy? And they are so out of touch with reality they will go for Romney.
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
I reckon it'll be Ryan if anyone..
Romney wields the knife so to speak...
Oh it will be Romney if it goes to the convention alright:
Romney is using Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio to snatch the nomination for himself.
It is mathematically impossible for him, for starters Trump crushes Romney 52-36 in the PPP Ohio poll and Cruz voters back Trump over Romney 44-39. Trump and Cruz delegates will have a majority no matter what so Romney cannot win! http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_30716.pdf
If Trump is still competitive (ahead by 3) post debate, on Katich's home turf then I would say he's home and dry overall.
Why have you ignored the Fox2Detroit Michigan poll which was carried out all post debate and gives Trump a 22% lead. You have told us that all the post debate polls show Trump's lead vanishing which is shall we say a little economical with the truth.
Seriously if anyone is daft enough to be betting on your tips they will be bankrupt by the end of the month!.
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
This is a good clip about Romney and the GOP. I think long term Trump would be better served by losing the nomination, and being seen to lose the nomination in an unfair way due to the machinations of the GOP, and then be positioned well in 2020 with events dear boy events. Whoever becomes POTUS next January will not be a two term president, the oncoming sovereign debt crisis will see to that, and global capital flows will be very disruptive to the US over 2017-2020 with a much much stronger US dollar:
If Trump was taking on anyone except Hillary he would probably be too old for 2016. He can't wait until 2020. Its now or never for him.
In fact the chances are that either of these candidates would end up being 1 term Presidents whether there is a melt down or not. The stresses and strains of the top job at that age asks a hell of a lot of anyone.
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
'Good chance' perhaps but at the moment Trump leads Ohio, if Kasich loses Ohio he is gone. If Rubio loses Florida he is also out and would get virtually no further delegates even if he stayed in anyway, Romney has zero chance of being nominee, neither Trump nor Cruz delegates will vote for him
Here is the key component of the Romney plan.
The delegates are bound to the candidates only in the first round. If it goes to the second round they can vote for whoever they like. And delegates selected to represent Trump and Cruz will probably be hand picked by the GOP to vote for the one they order on the second ballot.
Trump and Cruz will need the best legal team and lots of detailed organization to make sure their delegates are loyal to them and the GOP doesn't change the rules too much before the convention.
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
This is a good clip about Romney and the GOP. I think long term Trump would be better served by losing the nomination, and being seen to lose the nomination in an unfair way due to the machinations of the GOP, and then be positioned well in 2020 with events dear boy events. Whoever becomes POTUS next January will not be a two term president, the oncoming sovereign debt crisis will see to that, and global capital flows will be very disruptive to the US over 2017-2020 with a much much stronger US dollar:
Michigan? Looks like it is going to be like South Carolina, with Trump continuing to tally well under a majority but facing split opposition (now, Cruz and Kasich) Idaho is closed-primary not a caucus as I thought. There's a two-week stale poll with Trump well ahead, but it was a really weird poll with enough Carson and undecided voters that I think Cruz should in fact be favoured given his good press since the latest debate. I think only Cruz and Trump will get delegates (>20 per cent of popular vote) Mississippi is shaping up to be another Cruz v Trump bruiser So this week, be negative Rubio and maybe - slightly - Trump!
If Trump is still competitive (ahead by 3) post debate, on Katich's home turf then I would say he's home and dry overall.
Why have you ignored the Fox2Detroit Michigan poll which was carried out all post debate and gives Trump a 22% lead. You have told us that all the post debate polls show Trump's lead vanishing which is shall we say a little economical with the truth.
Seriously if anyone is daft enough to be betting on your tips they will be bankrupt by the end of the month!.
If Trump is still competitive (ahead by 3) post debate, on Katich's home turf then I would say he's home and dry overall.
Why have you ignored the Fox2Detroit Michigan poll which was carried out all post debate and gives Trump a 22% lead. You have told us that all the post debate polls show Trump's lead vanishing which is shall we say a little economical with the truth.
Seriously if anyone is daft enough to be betting on your tips they will be bankrupt by the end of the month!.
We all need to make our own judgements as bettors, @Speedy isn't responsible for anyone's trading decisions.
If Trump is still competitive (ahead by 3) post debate, on Katich's home turf then I would say he's home and dry overall.
Why have you ignored the Fox2Detroit Michigan poll which was carried out all post debate and gives Trump a 22% lead. You have told us that all the post debate polls show Trump's lead vanishing which is shall we say a little economical with the truth.
Seriously if anyone is daft enough to be betting on your tips they will be bankrupt by the end of the month!.
We all need to make our own judgements as bettors, @Speedy isn't responsible for anyone's trading decisions.
If you'd followed Nate Silver's advice you'd be massively underwater at this point.
If Kasich is fair value at 12/1 for the Republican nomination, which he probably isn't, then he's great value to become POTUS at 40/1 with Wm. Hill. DYOR
Nice logic. I do struggle to see a Kasich nomination without a third-party Trump run...
To be honest there's probably no value in either Kasich POTUS or GOP. But perhaps GOP is better. The GOP have to essentially break their own rules (Severely) for it to be anyone other than Trump or Cruz right now. But who is to say they won't ?
Anyway my GOP book looks more valuable than ever right now so I've more or less levelled it off.
Is it just plausible that:
Kasich wins Michigan Kasich wins Ohio and gives appearance of momentum Rubio loses Florida and drops out on the same day In a 3-way contest Kasich emerges as a "better Rubio" and ends up close to Cruz (assuming Cruz is second) in delegates. In the fabled brokered convention he is: 1) not significantly more of a stitch-up than Cruz and 2) has the delightful advantage of actually being likely to win the election.
The odds on that are a damn sight longer than 12/1
No one who commits the stitch up in the convention will win the GE. The supporters of the candidates who lose at the convention will riot in the streets.
And Trump & Cruz supporters are not ordinary people, they are fanatics and most of them armed fanatics.
These democrats in 1968 were not armed to the teeth:
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
'Good chance' perhaps but at the moment Trump leads Ohio, if Kasich loses Ohio he is gone. If Rubio loses Florida he is also out and would get virtually no further delegates even if he stayed in anyway, Romney has zero chance of being nominee, neither Trump nor Cruz delegates will vote for him
Here is the key component of the Romney plan.
The delegates are bound to the candidates only in the first round. If it goes to the second round they can vote for whoever they like. And delegates selected to represent Trump and Cruz will probably be hand picked by the GOP to vote for the one they order on the second ballot.
Trump and Cruz will need the best legal team and lots of detailed organization to make sure their delegates are loyal to them and the GOP doesn't change the rules too much before the convention.
Goodnight.
Delegates elected to vote for Trump and Cruz will be Trump and Cruz supporters, they are certainly not going to vote for Romney.
If Kasich is fair value at 12/1 for the Republican nomination, which he probably isn't, then he's great value to become POTUS at 40/1 with Wm. Hill. DYOR
Nice logic. I do struggle to see a Kasich nomination without a third-party Trump run...
To be honest there's probably no value in either Kasich POTUS or GOP. But perhaps GOP is better. The GOP have to essentially break their own rules (Severely) for it to be anyone other than Trump or Cruz right now. But who is to say they won't ?
Anyway my GOP book looks more valuable than ever right now so I've more or less levelled it off.
Is it just plausible that:
Kasich wins Michigan Kasich wins Ohio and gives appearance of momentum Rubio loses Florida and drops out on the same day In a 3-way contest Kasich emerges as a "better Rubio" and ends up close to Cruz (assuming Cruz is second) in delegates. In the fabled brokered convention he is: 1) not significantly more of a stitch-up than Cruz and 2) has the delightful advantage of actually being likely to win the election.
The odds on that are a damn sight longer than 12/1
No one who commits the stitch up in the convention will win the GE. The supporters of the candidates who lose at the convention will riot in the streets.
And Trump & Cruz supporters are not ordinary people, they are fanatics and most of them armed fanatics.
These democrats in 1968 were not armed to the teeth:
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
'Good chance' perhaps but at the moment Trump leads Ohio, if Kasich loses Ohio he is gone. If Rubio loses Florida he is also out and would get virtually no further delegates even if he stayed in anyway, Romney has zero chance of being nominee, neither Trump nor Cruz delegates will vote for him
Here is the key component of the Romney plan.
The delegates are bound to the candidates only in the first round. If it goes to the second round they can vote for whoever they like. And delegates selected to represent Trump and Cruz will probably be hand picked by the GOP to vote for the one they order on the second ballot.
Trump and Cruz will need the best legal team and lots of detailed organization to make sure their delegates are loyal to them and the GOP doesn't change the rules too much before the convention.
Goodnight.
Delegates elected to vote for Trump and Cruz will be Trump and Cruz supporters, they are certainly not going to vote for Romney.
I think the other problem with Romney's plan - if that is what he is planning - is that I do not think Cruz would go along with it: if Trump is deemed to be unfairly denied, it will split the Republicans in two; but if Cruz vetoes what is seen to be unfair machinations directed at Trump, then he is in a good position to pick up Trump's support base if the latter loses the election to HRC. Cruz is young enough to be able to go again in 2020.
If Kasich is fair value at 12/1 for the Republican nomination, which he probably isn't, then he's great value to become POTUS at 40/1 with Wm. Hill. DYOR
Nice logic. I do struggle to see a Kasich nomination without a third-party Trump run...
To be honest there's probably no value in either Kasich POTUS or GOP. But perhaps GOP is better. The GOP have to essentially break their own rules (Severely) for it to be anyone other than Trump or Cruz right now. But who is to say they won't ?
Anyway my GOP book looks more valuable than ever right now so I've more or less levelled it off.
Is it just plausible that:
Kasich wins Michigan Kasich wins Ohio and gives appearance of momentum Rubio loses Florida and drops out on the same day In a 3-way contest Kasich emerges as a "better Rubio" and ends up close to Cruz (assuming Cruz is second) in delegates. In the fabled brokered convention he is: 1) not significantly more of a stitch-up than Cruz and 2) has the delightful advantage of actually being likely to win the election.
The odds on that are a damn sight longer than 12/1
No one who commits the stitch up in the convention will win the GE. The supporters of the candidates who lose at the convention will riot in the streets.
And Trump & Cruz supporters are not ordinary people, they are fanatics and most of them armed fanatics.
These democrats in 1968 were not armed to the teeth:
If Trump is still competitive (ahead by 3) post debate, on Katich's home turf then I would say he's home and dry overall.
Why have you ignored the Fox2Detroit Michigan poll which was carried out all post debate and gives Trump a 22% lead. You have told us that all the post debate polls show Trump's lead vanishing which is shall we say a little economical with the truth.
Seriously if anyone is daft enough to be betting on your tips they will be bankrupt by the end of the month!.
We all need to make our own judgements as bettors, @Speedy isn't responsible for anyone's trading decisions.
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
'Good chance' perhaps but at the moment Trump leads Ohio, if Kasich loses Ohio he is gone. If Rubio loses Florida he is also out and would get virtually no further delegates even if he stayed in anyway, Romney has zero chance of being nominee, neither Trump nor Cruz delegates will vote for him
Here is the key component of the Romney plan.
The delegates are bound to the candidates only in the first round. If it goes to the second round they can vote for whoever they like. And delegates selected to represent Trump and Cruz will probably be hand picked by the GOP to vote for the one they order on the second ballot.
Trump and Cruz will need the best legal team and lots of detailed organization to make sure their delegates are loyal to them and the GOP doesn't change the rules too much before the convention.
Goodnight.
Delegates elected to vote for Trump and Cruz will be Trump and Cruz supporters, they are certainly not going to vote for Romney.
I think the other problem with Romney's plan - if that is what he is planning - is that I do not think Cruz would go along with it: if Trump is deemed to be unfairly denied, it will split the Republicans in two; but if Cruz vetoes what is seen to be unfair machinations directed at Trump, then he is in a good position to pick up Trump's support base if the latter loses the election to HRC. Cruz is young enough to be able to go again in 2020.
Yes, Cruz probably already has an eye on the 2020 nomination
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
This is a good clip about Romney and the GOP. I think long term Trump would be better served by losing the nomination, and being seen to lose the nomination in an unfair way due to the machinations of the GOP, and then be positioned well in 2020 with events dear boy events. Whoever becomes POTUS next January will not be a two term president, the oncoming sovereign debt crisis will see to that, and global capital flows will be very disruptive to the US over 2017-2020 with a much much stronger US dollar:
I highly doubt global capital flows will determine the 2020 election, nor will a strong US dollar
Capital flows in times of trouble become a political issue, as politicians come under pressure to put in place capital controls. It happened in the Great Depression and I predict it will happen over the next 4 years too. The US will come under pressure from its exporters with the strong US dollar unable to sell much abroad. And the Federal Reserve has already come under massive pressure from the rest of the world - Janet Yellen wanted to raise US interest rates last June and was ambushed by the IMF - the US is facing a classic conflicting objective in setting monetary policy from domestic considerations as well as international considerations. Emerging market countries were screaming at the US not to raise rates owing to many of them having a large amount of US$ debt - they've issued $9 trillion in US debt since 2008 alone. That bill is coming due, and isn't going to be a happy one with the strengthening US dollar.
TIME TO CHALLENGE POLLING WEIGHTINGS 1. The betting markets are influenced by the polls (Statement of the bleeding obvious). 2. Key to this is how accurate are the polls (2nd Statement of the bleeding obvious). 4. One of the major causes of inaccurate polls for the GE was having too many young voters and too few 65+ Conservative leaning voters in the polling samples. 5. Yougov stated in an recent article that for every voter in 18-24 range there should be 3 in the 65+ range. 6. So why in the 2nd & 3rd March Yougov data was there just a weighting of 197 18-25 and only 356 65+ ? This produced a small REMAIN 3% (40%) lead whereas it probably should have been ?????
At the general election the Tories benefited from support from both high turnout groups, the old and the middle class, at the referendum the middle classes will back Remain while the old will back Leave thus somewhat cancelling each other out
That may be correct. But first why are the polling companies weighting Young voters vs 65+ in a way that is disproportionate with how they voted at the GE?
"Although we’ll never know precisely how the different generations voted in 2015, best estimates suggest that around 43% of 18-24 year olds voted compared to around 78% of over 65s. With 6m 18-24 year olds in the UK and over 11 million over 65s that means that the over 65s carry more than three and a half times more weight than the youngest cohort."
The BES data is from just a few days after the GE. The Yougov data is from last month. As well as turnout there are almost twice as many 65+ people than in the 18-24 segment.
ITV News at Ten, Turkish PM, getting VIP treatment in Brussels (nice!) states "Turkey is ready to join the EU" .... and he's not being discouraged by an EU, apparently desperate to stop the flow of migrants ... Meanwhile, in Turkey an increasingly authoritarian government is taking over major (criticising) newspapers and hosing down protesters ..... Turkey Join not good for REmain .... But, they can have our place ...
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
I reckon it'll be Ryan if anyone..
Romney wields the knife so to speak...
Oh it will be Romney if it goes to the convention alright:
Romney is using Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio to snatch the nomination for himself.
Just when you thought the car-crash of the Republican race was finally coming to an end, Romney turns up with a couple of transporters full of supercars...
I think the other problem with Romney's plan - if that is what he is planning - is that I do not think Cruz would go along with it: if Trump is deemed to be unfairly denied, it will split the Republicans in two; but if Cruz vetoes what is seen to be unfair machinations directed at Trump, then he is in a good position to pick up Trump's support base if the latter loses the election to HRC. Cruz is young enough to be able to go again in 2020.
That's a very good point.
US-based posters might have another opinion but my understanding is that it is absolutely essential, in US politics, to be seen to cheerfully accept the verdict of the voters. Anyone who is party to a stitch-up will be trying to justify it for the rest of their careers and will be finished in Presidential politics.
Knowing Betfair Michael Bloomberg will probably head back in at some point, so I've spent the full £2 to green him up.
D-day is Friday, with a possible extension over the weekend. But my friend thinks he'll bottle it.
I'll take the Bloomberg.com article on face value.
Good news for Hillary directly that there's no BB 3rd party bid - but more importantly, It implies Bloomberg has concluded she's not particularly vulnerable re; FBI stuff.
Of course, he still might throw everything behind some other 3rd party candidate or something
Its on a witch hunt at present, indeed it is behaving no different to the express with a fierce and very biased anti EU agenda. It is hanging on to it's daily delivery to our house only because of my wife's addiction to it's puzzles
I'm temporarily back because I found this nice video that tells you who the GOP "insiders" are, what are they doing, and what are they thinking about the race:
How much longer will the news be filled with migrant problems? Can it really go on for 4 more months? The news tonight on the EU considering setting a timetable for Turkey's entry to the EU and dropping visa requirements etc hardly helps the REMAIN cause. Or do our PB REMAINERS see this all as mere flesh wounds?
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
This is a good clip about Romney and the GOP. I think long term Trump would be better served by losing the nomination, and being seen to lose the nomination in an unfair way due to the machinations of the GOP, and then be positioned well in 2020 with events dear boy events. Whoever becomes POTUS next January will not be a two term president, the oncoming sovereign debt crisis will see to that, and global capital flows will be very disruptive to the US over 2017-2020 with a much much stronger US dollar:
I highly doubt global capital flows will determine the 2020 election, nor will a strong US dollar
Capital flows in times of trouble become a political issue, as politicians come under pressure to put in place capital controls. It happened in the Great Depression and I predict it will happen over the next 4 years too. The US will come under pressure from its exporters with the strong US dollar unable to sell much abroad. And the Federal Reserve has already come under massive pressure from the rest of the world - Janet Yellen wanted to raise US interest rates last June and was ambushed by the IMF - the US is facing a classic conflicting objective in setting monetary policy from domestic considerations as well as international considerations. Emerging market countries were screaming at the US not to raise rates owing to many of them having a large amount of US$ debt - they've issued $9 trillion in US debt since 2008 alone. That bill is coming due, and isn't going to be a happy one with the strengthening US dollar.
Unless that leads to mass unemployment it will not be significant at the ballot box
TIME TO CHALLENGE POLLING WEIGHTINGS 1. The betting markets are influenced by the polls (Statement of the bleeding obvious). 2. Key to this is how accurate are the polls (2nd Statement of the bleeding obvious). 4. One of the major causes of inaccurate polls for the GE was having too many young voters and too few 65+ Conservative leaning voters in the polling samples. 5. Yougov stated in an recent article that for every voter in 18-24 range there should be 3 in the 65+ range. 6. So why in the 2nd & 3rd March Yougov data was there just a weighting of 197 18-25 and only 356 65+ ? This produced a small REMAIN 3% (40%) lead whereas it probably should have been ?????
At the general election the Tories benefited from support from both high turnout groups, the old and the middle class, at the referendum the middle classes will back Remain while the old will back Leave thus somewhat cancelling each other out
That may be correct. But first why are the polling companies weighting Young voters vs 65+ in a way that is disproportionate with how they voted at the GE?
"Although we’ll never know precisely how the different generations voted in 2015, best estimates suggest that around 43% of 18-24 year olds voted compared to around 78% of over 65s. With 6m 18-24 year olds in the UK and over 11 million over 65s that means that the over 65s carry more than three and a half times more weight than the youngest cohort."
The BES data is from just a few days after the GE. The Yougov data is from last month. As well as turnout there are almost twice as many 65+ people than in the 18-24 segment.
So what, the BES data was obviously conducted from actual voters and the yougov figures are very vague. The point was on turnout as a percentage
How much longer will the news be filled with migrant problems? Can it really go on for 4 more months? The news tonight on the EU considering setting a timetable for Turkey's entry to the EU and dropping visa requirements etc hardly helps the REMAIN cause. Or do our PB REMAINERS see this all as mere flesh wounds?
Its amazing that 10 years ago when Turkey was a good deal more democratic than it is today, that the EU blocked its wish to join, and now after Erdogan has dragged the country downhill, the EU is falling over itself to get Turkey into the club. You couldn't make it up. After all the Western meddling in Syria in order to facilitate the oil pipeline through there and overthrow the Assad regime with a puppet western facing government, it has come to this, never mind the human rights abuses, the abject treatment of the Kurds, and wanting to ratchet tensions and pi$$ off Russia even further.....well it takes the wretched EU to tick all those ghastly boxes.
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court. Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich and Rubio will likely be gone from the race in just over a week
I doubt it. Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio. Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
This is a good clip about Romney and the GOP. I think long term Trump would be better served by losing the nomination, and being seen to lose the nomination in an unfair way due to the machinations of the GOP, and then be positioned well in 2020 with events dear boy events. Whoever becomes POTUS next January will not be a two term president, the oncoming sovereign debt crisis will see to that, and global capital flows will be very disruptive to the US over 2017-2020 with a much much stronger US dollar:
If Trump was taking on anyone except Hillary he would probably be too old for 2016. He can't wait until 2020. Its now or never for him.
In fact the chances are that either of these candidates would end up being 1 term Presidents whether there is a melt down or not. The stresses and strains of the top job at that age asks a hell of a lot of anyone.
Which makes Hilary's choice of VP interesting because of course he/she would likely be the nominee in 2020. Likewise her choice of SoS. But lets not forget Hilary is Mrs Clinton and Mr Clinton (and indeed herself) has been there and seen that so whilst it will not be presented as a duumvirate - and she may resent one - that combination might well keep her going for the whole 9 yards.
How much longer will the news be filled with migrant problems? Can it really go on for 4 more months? The news tonight on the EU considering setting a timetable for Turkey's entry to the EU and dropping visa requirements etc hardly helps the REMAIN cause. Or do our PB REMAINERS see this all as mere flesh wounds?
No idea how this will pan out - it could go either way for or against but leave need to be very careful that they do not give an impression that they are cold and uncaring in what is proving to be a human tragedy of biblical proportions
ITV News at Ten, Turkish PM, getting VIP treatment in Brussels (nice!) states "Turkey is ready to join the EU" .... and he's not being discouraged by an EU, apparently desperate to stop the flow of migrants ... Meanwhile, in Turkey an increasingly authoritarian government is taking over major (criticising) newspapers and hosing down protesters ..... Turkey Join not good for REmain .... But, they can have our place ...
Bit of typical diplomatic flannel to get the Turks onside. Both they and the EU that the prospect of Turkish entry is further off than it has been in a decade.
Ray Tomlinson, the man who invented email has died.
Although of course it had to be the case it is now so ubiquitous that it is strange to think that someone actually 'invented' email. RIP to someone who it can truly be said changed the world.
TIME TO CHALLENGE POLLING WEIGHTINGS 1. The betting markets are influenced by the polls (Statement of the bleeding obvious). 2. Key to this is how accurate are the polls (2nd Statement of the bleeding obvious). 4. One of the major causes of inaccurate polls for the GE was having too many young voters and too few 65+ Conservative leaning voters in the polling samples. 5. Yougov stated in an recent article that for every voter in 18-24 range there should be 3 in the 65+ range. 6. So why in the 2nd & 3rd March Yougov data was there just a weighting of 197 18-25 and only 356 65+ ? This produced a small REMAIN 3% (40%) lead whereas it probably should have been ?????
At the general election the Tories benefited from support from both high turnout groups, the old and the middle class, at the referendum the middle classes will back Remain while the old will back Leave thus somewhat cancelling each other out
That may be correct. But first why are the polling companies weighting Young voters vs 65+ in a way that is disproportionate with how they voted at the GE?
"Although we’ll never know precisely how the different generations voted in 2015, best estimates suggest that around 43% of 18-24 year olds voted compared to around 78% of over 65s. With 6m 18-24 year olds in the UK and over 11 million over 65s that means that the over 65s carry more than three and a half times more weight than the youngest cohort."
The BES data is from just a few days after the GE. The Yougov data is from last month. As well as turnout there are almost twice as many 65+ people than in the 18-24 segment.
So what, the BES data was obviously conducted from actual voters and the yougov figures are very vague. The point was on turnout as a percentage
By now the Yougov data on actual voting % by age should be coming from the marked register data and not a survey where the young usually are wrong about whether they will/are voting.
Comments
https://twitter.com/going4golds/status/643359744875491328
DYOR
Trump 38
Kasich 35
Cruz 15
Rubio 5
Trump 40
Kasich 55
I think Kasich is in prime position in Ohio.
Still, it will pay for my season ticket for a decade or so...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/general-election-2015-highest-turnout-since-1997-10235076.html
He was taking a substance for ten years as prescribed by a doctor, and then that substance was added to the banned drugs list in January. Yet she knew it by a different (non-generic?) name.
I can imagine it's easy to do. Then again, she's supposed to be a professional ...
Sadiq Khan will thrash Zac.
'The Conservatives win the East European vote? Best be quick about that before they all get deported by Bill Cash and his mates!
Sadiq Khan will thrash Zac.'
Are the Lib Dems putting up a candidate or not bothering this time ?
Bottom of page 8 shows the weakness of your Romney/Trump analysis before. Far more corssover
But who is to say they won't ?
Anyway my GOP book looks more valuable than ever right now so I've more or less levelled it off.
If you are going to cash out a payout that size on a fixed odds bet, rather than clicking the cashout button, it's probably worth calling up the bookie in question and negotiating a payout as close as possible to the betfair exchange odds. I'd expect to be able to increase the payout by a few per cent.
In exchange for publicity, the bookies might be even more generous.
I said that Trump+Cruz is 52% and Kasich+Rubio is 36% based on the Trump/Romney numbers leaked, and the result was 53% and 40%.
If it's Rubio vs Hillary in Ohio you can guess the result.
A refreshingly honest response.
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/706873628944629761
Kasich needs 2000 signatures to be on the Pennsylvania primary ballot, he is just over the limit and Rubio is challenging him to court.
Cruz also has 2 court hearings over his signatures plus one for his eligibility due to his canadian citizenship.
Best case for Trump is that both Kasich and Cruz are out of the Pennsylvania ballot, stuff like that happens from time to time, it happened last in Virginia in 2012.
Kasich wins Michigan
Kasich wins Ohio and gives appearance of momentum
Rubio loses Florida and drops out on the same day
In a 3-way contest Kasich emerges as a "better Rubio" and ends up close to Cruz (assuming Cruz is second) in delegates.
In the fabled brokered convention he is: 1) not significantly more of a stitch-up than Cruz and 2) has the delightful advantage of actually being likely to win the election.
The odds on that are a damn sight longer than 12/1
http://order-order.com/2016/03/07/remain-supporting-bcc-chief-keeps-job/
http://order-order.com/2016/03/07/deja-v-eu-remainers-rehash-1975-leaflets-verbatim/
Kasich has good chances of winning Ohio.
Rubio's campaign is now Romney's, and Romney will keep Rubio in to deny as many delegates from the others as possible, in order to crown Romney the nominee in the convention.
http://order-order.com/2016/03/07/remain-supporting-bcc-chief-keeps-job/
Seems like No 10 did speak to them:
A Number 10 spokeswoman admitted there had been a conversation between an official and the business group but refused to give a "blow-by-blow" account of discussions and denied there was any pressure for Mr Longworth to be suspended.
Just will keep him at zero in the POTUS market or slightly below zero...
Romney wields the knife so to speak...
The supporters of the candidates who lose at the convention will riot in the streets.
And Trump & Cruz supporters are not ordinary people, they are fanatics and most of them armed fanatics.
These democrats in 1968 were not armed to the teeth:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUKzSsVmnpY
Mainly to Trump's price.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/2016-u-s-presidential-election/the-coming-insurrection-inside-the-republican-party/
But the chances of a brokered convention are way less than some people think.
https://twitter.com/randyprine/status/706871442835542016
https://twitter.com/WashTimes/status/706507945471844352
Romney is using Cruz, Kasich, and Rubio to snatch the nomination for himself.
And they are so out of touch with reality they will go for Romney.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_30716.pdf
Why have you ignored the Fox2Detroit Michigan poll which was carried out all post debate and gives Trump a 22% lead. You have told us that all the post debate polls show Trump's lead vanishing which is shall we say a little economical with the truth.
Seriously if anyone is daft enough to be betting on your tips they will be bankrupt by the end of the month!.
In fact the chances are that either of these candidates would end up being 1 term Presidents whether there is a melt down or not. The stresses and strains of the top job at that age asks a hell of a lot of anyone.
The delegates are bound to the candidates only in the first round.
If it goes to the second round they can vote for whoever they like.
And delegates selected to represent Trump and Cruz will probably be hand picked by the GOP to vote for the one they order on the second ballot.
Trump and Cruz will need the best legal team and lots of detailed organization to make sure their delegates are loyal to them and the GOP doesn't change the rules too much before the convention.
Goodnight.
Perhaps I'm not getting something, but the link in your tweet said;
"Mitt Romney has filed paperwork with FEC to run in the current election"
Where's the evidence?
Idaho is closed-primary not a caucus as I thought. There's a two-week stale poll with Trump well ahead, but it was a really weird poll with enough Carson and undecided voters that I think Cruz should in fact be favoured given his good press since the latest debate. I think only Cruz and Trump will get delegates (>20 per cent of popular vote)
Mississippi is shaping up to be another Cruz v Trump bruiser
So this week, be negative Rubio and maybe - slightly - Trump!
https://twitter.com/bycoffe/status/706332494258376704
If you had followed my debate verdict on Friday morning and placed a bet on Cruz, by Sunday morning you would have been in the black.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/3/6/1496911/--Romney-For-President-Inc-filed-with-FEC-Feb-1-2016
There goes the last chance for the republicans to win the election.
Goodnight.
Humphrey calls LBJ on election night
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YttmffiWyjA
In 1972 Humphrey personally phoned Nixon to apologise for having had to campaign for McGovern
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56dBfyeH2DM
Just made a final £20 out of Bloomberg.
Trading that man's political ambitions has been remarkably profitable.
Lay Michael Bloomberg 94.13 £35.03
For me lol
But that laying includes some field lays to get back field cash.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/26/analysis-dont-get-too-comfortable-out-campaign-has/
The BES data is from just a few days after the GE. The Yougov data is from last month. As well as turnout there are almost twice as many 65+ people than in the 18-24 segment.
Hounding John Longworth out of his job was shameful. What next - Cameron having people arrested for what they think http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/turning-britain-democracy-dictatorship-hounding-7511809 …
Front of the mail doesn't look good for No10.
US-based posters might have another opinion but my understanding is that it is absolutely essential, in US politics, to be seen to cheerfully accept the verdict of the voters. Anyone who is party to a stitch-up will be trying to justify it for the rest of their careers and will be finished in Presidential politics.
Good news for Hillary directly that there's no BB 3rd party bid - but more importantly, It implies Bloomberg has concluded she's not particularly vulnerable re; FBI stuff.
Of course, he still might throw everything behind some other 3rd party candidate or something
Anyway, I've topped up on Hillary @ 1.54
I know, I've surprised even myself.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12186850/Exclusive-David-Cameron-aide-complained-about-John-Longworth-to-British-Chambers-of-Commerce-hours-before-he-was-suspended.html
https://twitter.com/SHO_TheCircus/status/706964054863032320
You can hear how ill Johnson was in that phone call, gasping for breath.
That was the real reason he declined renomination in '68. He guessed he wouldn't live to serve a full term.
Turned out he was only two days out in his estimation...
The Labour-supporting Mirror. Awkward.
But lets not forget Hilary is Mrs Clinton and Mr Clinton (and indeed herself) has been there and seen that so whilst it will not be presented as a duumvirate - and she may resent one - that combination might well keep her going for the whole 9 yards.
Ray Tomlinson, the man who invented email has died.
Although of course it had to be the case it is now so ubiquitous that it is strange to think that someone actually 'invented' email. RIP to someone who it can truly be said changed the world.
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/mar/07/ray-tomlinson-email-inventor-and-selector-of-symbol-dies-aged-74