politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : March 3rd 2016
Comments
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I would expect every single EU minister to say how awful it is to leave the EUBig_G_NorthWales said:
I would expect that at every EU meeting or Minister meeings the press will be quizing EU heads at every opportunity and if they agree with Germany's comments tonight it will be a serious blow to leaveNorfolkTilIDie said:
I actually think psychological effects of perceived attempts at bullying would favour leave.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
However it is ridiculous to claim they would offer an option to South Korea that isn't available to the UK.0 -
Patrick O'Flynn ✔ @oflynnmep
It was bad enough Blair becoming US's Poodle, but Cameron becoming France's Poodle surely underrates Britain's view of its global status.0 -
I wish it were not the case, but I think you are optimistic.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I imagine you would be one of small handful of losers there and would be dwarfed by all the extra business that could be done by free trade deals elsewhere and better regulation (especially if Eurozone gets trigger happy on single rulebook). And as you say you can always make a subsidiary for that bit of your business.rcs1000 said:
My firm relies very heavily on the single financial passport to sell our services into the EU. A Norway option is great for us. If passporting is removed it would probably be a death knell to our business. (Or, at the very least, require us to open and man a subsidiary inside the EU.)NorfolkTilIDie said:
No but I don't think single market in services even removed all trade barriers for member states. South Korea deal does however remove all tariffs on services and remove most non tariff barriers, albeit marginally less than for member state. Not much in it really.rcs1000 said:
Does the South Korean agreement bring it inside the single market for services?NorfolkTilIDie said:
I actually think psychological effects of perceived attempts at bullying would favour leave.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
However it is ridiculous to claim they would offer an option to South Korea that isn't available to the UK.0 -
How can the removal of a tax break be defined as being fleeced? It's not taking away your money it's stopping money being given to you.AlastairMeeks said:On pensions reform, I do not expect a flat rate tax relief. It's just too easy for the losers to work out by how much they've been fleeced.
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As a fifth born, everyone seems to run out of steam before proposing what happens to me and mine in such scenarios.Wanderer said:
As a second-born I see merit in that proposal.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Why don't they also insist on free blow jobs for all EU visitors and the right to enslave all our first born. FFS, they have lost two wars against us do they not know what we are like when ANGRY!Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
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I'm actually surprised the French haven't been encouraging us to leave. Although maybe... maybe... maybe... they're trying to reverse psychology us. You know, to pretend they want us in, to actually make us leave.Sean_F said:
I would expect every single EU minister to say how awful it is to leave the EUBig_G_NorthWales said:
I would expect that at every EU meeting or Minister meeings the press will be quizing EU heads at every opportunity and if they agree with Germany's comments tonight it will be a serious blow to leaveNorfolkTilIDie said:
I actually think psychological effects of perceived attempts at bullying would favour leave.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
However it is ridiculous to claim they would offer an option to South Korea that isn't available to the UK.0 -
Far be it from me to agree with UKIP'ers but today really has been a low point. Cameron getting the French, yes the French, to threaten his own citizens, the people he should be protecting and sticking up for... Like I say, a definite low point.Tykejohnno said:Patrick O'Flynn ✔ @oflynnmep
It was bad enough Blair becoming US's Poodle, but Cameron becoming France's Poodle surely underrates Britain's view of its global status.
Suspect he can sink lower yet though...0 -
Could you explain your thoughts more?rcs1000 said:
I wish it were not the case, but I think you are optimistic.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I imagine you would be one of small handful of losers there and would be dwarfed by all the extra business that could be done by free trade deals elsewhere and better regulation (especially if Eurozone gets trigger happy on single rulebook). And as you say you can always make a subsidiary for that bit of your business.rcs1000 said:
My firm relies very heavily on the single financial passport to sell our services into the EU. A Norway option is great for us. If passporting is removed it would probably be a death knell to our business. (Or, at the very least, require us to open and man a subsidiary inside the EU.)NorfolkTilIDie said:
No but I don't think single market in services even removed all trade barriers for member states. South Korea deal does however remove all tariffs on services and remove most non tariff barriers, albeit marginally less than for member state. Not much in it really.rcs1000 said:
Does the South Korean agreement bring it inside the single market for services?NorfolkTilIDie said:
I actually think psychological effects of perceived attempts at bullying would favour leave.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
However it is ridiculous to claim they would offer an option to South Korea that isn't available to the UK.0 -
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Did I mention I backed the spanners at 7/2 as a financial hedge to my emotions.... obviously arsenal losing to the team we'd just beaten was an even better recovery.TheScreamingEagles said:
My advice, put a lot on Arsenal to win on Saturday.Scrapheap_as_was said:
10 game weeks to go... tick tock as someone once said here a few times...TheScreamingEagles said:
Desperate measures for desperate times, I can't finish behind a Spurs fan.Scrapheap_as_was said:
And then Norwich...TheScreamingEagles said:
Just one place behind you, you know what's going to happen this weekend.Scrapheap_as_was said:Greater fan loyalty knows no more than a man who drops all his spurs players from his fantasy team in the certain hope that by doing so will ensure they score bundles as a result in the next game... selling Kane should also ensure a hat trick too.
I'm going to play Augero as triple captain this weekend, and they play Villa
I saw the desperate use of the bench boost had been forced upon you.. but for Milner...
I did that during our title charge season, kept on backing our opponents, eventually it paid off.0 -
So is Cameron going to stand up and say "I have a piece of paper from the German Chancellor". That did not end well last time for the English PM. Is David Chamberlain Cameron going to announce this?Big_G_NorthWales said:
ITV are only quoting what Germany has stated today though their reporter did say it was significantNorfolkTilIDie said:
I actually think psychological effects of perceived attempts at bullying would favour leave.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
However it is ridiculous to claim they would offer an option to South Korea that isn't available to the UK.
That known nutcase Bone may actually deliver the coup de grace at the next PMQs.. Is it true Mr Cameron that you have been told by the Germans..... Would Cameron survive?
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As a fellow second born I'm always glad we get off so lightly when these threats come up.Wanderer said:
As a second-born I see merit in that proposal.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Why don't they also insist on free blow jobs for all EU visitors and the right to enslave all our first born. FFS, they have lost two wars against us do they not know what we are like when ANGRY!Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
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Osborne and Co are the Corporations friends. That much is clear.GIN1138 said:
Well that's the point isn't it? Governments don't want people to plan and to save and to be thrifty, etc. They want people to spend, spend, spend. Saving has been discouraged for years and years.Scrapheap_as_was said:it's ridiculous trying to do long term planning when the rules are continually being changed. 'A' day is a long time ago now.
They just want people to spend and to pay their taxes - British people are chased, literally to the grave by HMRC but American supernational tax avoiders like Google and Amazon do whatever the hell they want.
We really need one heck of a shake up in this country,
I can why Corbyn appeals to so many. A lot of his ideas are completely crackpot, but in amongst the crazy stuff, are a fair few that make complete sense.
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A free trade area with freedom of movement.SimonStClare said:
Mr Tyndall, what is the Norway or Iceland option in brief? - TIA.Richard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
It would remove us from approx. 73% of the current EU legislation (I can explain the figures if anyone is interested including the old 9% argument which is sometimes misquoted) and would leave us subject only to that legislation related to the Single Market and freedom of movement.
For anyone not overly concerned with UK immigration it is a great option.0 -
Eh? Non comprende - in what circumstances would PP conceivably pay out early?Pulpstar said:
Back with Paddy Power.peter_from_putney said:Off Topic
***** BETTING POST *****
Something for the weekend Sir?
I've been taking a look at the state of the Premier League's Manager "Sack Race" market.
Favourite to win the current round is Utd's LVG with best decimal odds of 4.33. After leading his side to four consecutive wins, his early departure appears decidedly unlikely.
Next in line comes Villa's Remi Garde who only seems to have been at the club 5 minutes, on offer at 4.5. He is followed by Norwich's Alex Neil priced at 8.0.
Surprisingly generously priced, in my view anyway, is fourth-placed Toon's boss Boss Steve McClaren who both Hills and Betfair Sportsbook have available at 9 (i.e. 8/1).
On Saturday, Newcastle are at home against Bournemouth who are also struggling somewhat, but nevertheless are on offer at fairly skinny best odds of only 2.88 to win this game.
I wonder whether McClaren could possibly survive a defeat by the Cherries?
Of course, one is second-guessing how the Chairmen of several football clubs might react to their various problems, but it seems to me that that the 2.88 price against Bournemouth winning is very different when compared with the 9.0 odds against Steve being given his early marching orders.
This falls decidedly into the "fun" category of betting and stakes should certainly be limited to a maximum of just a few quid.
DYOR.
They often pay out early on markets like this.0 -
Surely Osbo isn't going to touch pension tax relief or flip the EET system on its head before the referendum?
The second would lead to open revolt in the Tory party. The first might be unpopular enough to cement a lead for Leave...0 -
Corbyn would shake things up wouldn't he?watford30 said:
Osborne and Co are the Corporations friends. That much is clear.GIN1138 said:
Well that's the point isn't it? Governments don't want people to plan and to save and to be thrifty, etc. They want people to spend, spend, spend. Saving has been discouraged for years and years.Scrapheap_as_was said:it's ridiculous trying to do long term planning when the rules are continually being changed. 'A' day is a long time ago now.
They just want people to spend and to pay their taxes - British people are chased, literally to the grave by HMRC but American supernational tax avoiders like Google and Amazon do whatever the hell they want.
We really need one heck of a shake up in this country,
I can why Corbyn appeals to so many. A lot of his ideas are completely crackpot, but in amongst the crazy stuff, are a fair few that make complete sense.
In an Osborne V Corbyn election I'd be tempted....0 -
Sure:NorfolkTilIDie said:Could you explain your thoughts more?
The deals that the US signed with Japan, Australia and New Zealand - the Trans Pacific Partnership - are incredibly asymetrical. They allow far more goods into Japan, etc. tariff free than vice-versa. Likewise, they require those countries to essentially implement US intellectual property laws, and to keep those laws in lock-step with the US. That is the US using its heft to denude smaller countries of sovereignty, and I think it is incredibly naieve to think we would be able to resist this.
Similarly, the ISDS tribubals - that take place in secret - that are used under NAFTA to prevent (for example) the Quebec government from banning certain types of GM foods, are also a clear infringement of sovereignty imposed by the US, and worse happen in a secrete fashion.
The Swiss-Chinese FTA is another classic example. Very asymetrical in terms. So, Chinese firms can buy 100% of Swiss banks. Swiss banks can only own 49% of Chinese ones. Almost all Chinese goods enter China tariff free. The Swiss get a reduction in tariffs on watches from 12.5% to 7.5% over 10 years.0 -
They paid out early on LVG just before christmas. After I'd backed him at 4-7 paying too much attention to twitter rumours !!peter_from_putney said:
Eh? Non comprende - in what circumstances would PP conceivably pay out early?Pulpstar said:
Back with Paddy Power.peter_from_putney said:Off Topic
***** BETTING POST *****
Something for the weekend Sir?
I've been taking a look at the state of the Premier League's Manager "Sack Race" market.
Favourite to win the current round is Utd's LVG with best decimal odds of 4.33. After leading his side to four consecutive wins, his early departure appears decidedly unlikely.
Next in line comes Villa's Remi Garde who only seems to have been at the club 5 minutes, on offer at 4.5. He is followed by Norwich's Alex Neil priced at 8.0.
Surprisingly generously priced, in my view anyway, is fourth-placed Toon's boss Boss Steve McClaren who both Hills and Betfair Sportsbook have available at 9 (i.e. 8/1).
On Saturday, Newcastle are at home against Bournemouth who are also struggling somewhat, but nevertheless are on offer at fairly skinny best odds of only 2.88 to win this game.
I wonder whether McClaren could possibly survive a defeat by the Cherries?
Of course, one is second-guessing how the Chairmen of several football clubs might react to their various problems, but it seems to me that that the 2.88 price against Bournemouth winning is very different when compared with the 9.0 odds against Steve being given his early marching orders.
This falls decidedly into the "fun" category of betting and stakes should certainly be limited to a maximum of just a few quid.
DYOR.
They often pay out early on markets like this.
They just sort of... do in this market.0 -
It would also save us at least 10bn a year, and would allow us control of the spending of the other 8bn. (Why no one focuses on the second point is something that always amazes me.)Richard_Tyndall said:
A free trade area with freedom of movement.SimonStClare said:
Mr Tyndall, what is the Norway or Iceland option in brief? - TIA.Richard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
It would remove us from approx. 73% of the current EU legislation (I can explain the figures if anyone is interested including the old 9% argument which is sometimes misquoted) and would leave us subject only to that legislation related to the Single Market and freedom of movement.
For anyone not overly concerned with UK immigration it is a great option.0 -
Seems to have encouraged the Germans as well.GIN1138 said:
Far be it from me to agree with UKIP'ers but today really has been a low point. Cameron getting the French, yes the French, to threaten his own citizens, the people he should be protecting and sticking up for... Like I say, a definite low point.Tykejohnno said:Patrick O'Flynn ✔ @oflynnmep
It was bad enough Blair becoming US's Poodle, but Cameron becoming France's Poodle surely underrates Britain's view of its global status.
Suspect he can sink lower yet though...
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If that were the only possible outcome of Leave and Germany were committed to supporting it I might well vote for it.Richard_Tyndall said:
A free trade area with freedom of movement.SimonStClare said:
Mr Tyndall, what is the Norway or Iceland option in brief? - TIA.Richard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
It would remove us from approx. 73% of the current EU legislation (I can explain the figures if anyone is interested including the old 9% argument which is sometimes misquoted) and would leave us subject only to that legislation related to the Single Market and freedom of movement.
For anyone not overly concerned with UK immigration it is a great option.
But I don't think the smorgasbord of options will cut through with the public.0 -
I agree with you I would support it as well.Wanderer said:
If that were the only possible outcome of Leave and Germany were committed to supporting it I might well vote for it.Richard_Tyndall said:
A free trade area with freedom of movement.SimonStClare said:
Mr Tyndall, what is the Norway or Iceland option in brief? - TIA.Richard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
It would remove us from approx. 73% of the current EU legislation (I can explain the figures if anyone is interested including the old 9% argument which is sometimes misquoted) and would leave us subject only to that legislation related to the Single Market and freedom of movement.
For anyone not overly concerned with UK immigration it is a great option.
But I don't think the smorgasbord of options will cut through with the public.0 -
I get the feeling Ted Cruz wouldn't fuck around if he was POTUS with N Korea !TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The problem is who knows - I've got multiple clients panicking about tax relief, falling lifetime allowance, fixed or individual protection (again), annual allowance cuts & stupid proposed taper, tax free cash being threatened - do we take our TFC before the Budget - salary sacrifice being threatened, ISA pensions, timing uncertainty for all of the above. Not to mention micro employers needing to sort out auto enrolment solutions this year and next.Mortimer said:Surely Osbo isn't going to touch pension tax relief or flip the EET system on its head before the referendum?
The second would lead to open revolt in the Tory party. The first might be unpopular enough to cement a lead for Leave...
Then we have Labour basically producing a review which wants to reintroduce annuities by default and undo much of pension freedoms.
Business is booming, great I suppose but I'm turning in to Donald Rumsfeld with known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns when it comes to saving for your retirement.
ITS A JOKE - JUST STOP THE BUGGERING ABOUT AND LEAVE IT BE FOR A WHILE.0 -
It is available. It would enable us to piggyback on existing EFTA trade deals. It would be simple and not disadvantage British business. It would remove us from the juristiction of the ECJ. It would save us 55 million pounds per day.Wanderer said:
If that were the only possible outcome of Leave and Germany were committed to supporting it I might well vote for it.Richard_Tyndall said:
A free trade area with freedom of movement.SimonStClare said:
Mr Tyndall, what is the Norway or Iceland option in brief? - TIA.Richard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
It would remove us from approx. 73% of the current EU legislation (I can explain the figures if anyone is interested including the old 9% argument which is sometimes misquoted) and would leave us subject only to that legislation related to the Single Market and freedom of movement.
For anyone not overly concerned with UK immigration it is a great option.
But I don't think the smorgasbord of options will cut through with the public.
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As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled alreadyRichard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..0 -
He would.GIN1138 said:
Corbyn would shake things up wouldn't he?watford30 said:
Osborne and Co are the Corporations friends. That much is clear.GIN1138 said:
Well that's the point isn't it? Governments don't want people to plan and to save and to be thrifty, etc. They want people to spend, spend, spend. Saving has been discouraged for years and years.Scrapheap_as_was said:it's ridiculous trying to do long term planning when the rules are continually being changed. 'A' day is a long time ago now.
They just want people to spend and to pay their taxes - British people are chased, literally to the grave by HMRC but American supernational tax avoiders like Google and Amazon do whatever the hell they want.
We really need one heck of a shake up in this country,
I can why Corbyn appeals to so many. A lot of his ideas are completely crackpot, but in amongst the crazy stuff, are a fair few that make complete sense.
In an Osborne V Corbyn election I'd be tempted....
Tory politicians are complacent, and taking us for a ride. I'd hoped for better things after May 2015, but the tax treatment of Google etc, and BTL changes from which the larger and ultimately more damaging landlords were pretty much exempted was too much. Cameron's behaviour over EU negotiations is pitiful.0 -
Trump is going to be the GOP nominee unless something big happens. I like Romney (I'm possibly one of the few that does) but I don't think his intervention is sufficient to stop him. I assume the odds when Trump becomes nom will be tighter than what they are now, so the odds are currently "value"AlastairMeeks said:Am I crazy for thinking now is an outstanding time to be backing Donald Trump?
Of course I could be massively wrong...
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Probably not the sort of business view Cameron would like to see become widespread amongst the public.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/12181446/Britain-will-be-left-sitting-on-EU-margins-if-it-remains-British-Chambers-of-Commerce-head-says.html0 -
Bollocksperdix said:
How can the removal of a tax break be defined as being fleeced? It's not taking away your money it's stopping money being given to you.AlastairMeeks said:On pensions reform, I do not expect a flat rate tax relief. It's just too easy for the losers to work out by how much they've been fleeced.
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I fully accept contributing. But the amount would be a fraction of what we pay now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled alreadyRichard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Free movement of labour is something I support.0 -
I am fed up of people saying there are not enough facts being put forward about the referendum, and so they don't know how to vote.
Go and read!0 -
I am getting the feeling that the GOP will do anything to stop Trump becoming nominee and that there will be a time to get out, but I think it is smart bet on Trump for now.viewcode said:
Trump is going to be the GOP nominee unless something big happens. I like Romney (I'm possibly one of the few that does) but I don't think his intervention is sufficient to stop him. I assume the odds when Trump becomes nom will be tighter than what they are now, so the odds are currently "value"AlastairMeeks said:Am I crazy for thinking now is an outstanding time to be backing Donald Trump?
Of course I could be massively wrong...0 -
A very small fraction.Richard_Tyndall said:
I fully accept contributing. But the amount would be a fraction of what we pay now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled alreadyRichard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Free movement of labour is something I support.0 -
I would compliment you Richard on being the first to give an honest and rational answer. I am just amazed that leavers don't seem to be as clear as you are and they need to come be as honestRichard_Tyndall said:
I fully accept contributing. But the amount would be a fraction of what we pay now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled alreadyRichard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Free movement of labour is something I support.0 -
Toby Young @toadmeister
.@johnmcdonnellMP is in cloud cuckoo land if he thinks the EU will bend to his “reform agenda”. It’s allergic to reform #bbcqt
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Lol the POTUS market has gone to 110/200 for Romney.
Trump's 3rd party run would kill him
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I'm going to try and pick up a fiver at 120...0 -
I won't debate with you about whether the course you outline is plausible. But surely characterising it as "scaremongering" is erroneous. Germany has an opinion about the deal it wishes to obtain post-Brexit. It isn't one you like, but it is the one it likes. That's not scaremongering, it's expressing a preference.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
0 -
Come on Richard, we're too poor, too thick, too small to decide for ourselves.Richard_Tyndall said:Probably not the sort of business view Cameron would like to see become widespread amongst the public.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/12181446/Britain-will-be-left-sitting-on-EU-margins-if-it-remains-British-Chambers-of-Commerce-head-says.html
0 -
I am apathetic on free movement itself, but the level of distrust in politics caused by the government having virtually no control on biggest issue to public is staggering. I don't think its healthy for democracy for politicians to have to say "Yeah that thing you most want us to change? We can't change it." It just breeds extremism.Richard_Tyndall said:
I fully accept contributing. But the amount would be a fraction of what we pay now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled alreadyRichard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Free movement of labour is something I support.0 -
0
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I'm a first-born. Go to bed...Wanderer said:
As a second-born I see merit in that proposal.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Why don't they also insist on free blow jobs for all EU visitors and the right to enslave all our first born. FFS, they have lost two wars against us do they not know what we are like when ANGRY!Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
0 -
Giving power to politicians is like giving whisky and car keys to teenagers.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I am apathetic on free movement itself, but the level of distrust in politics caused by the government having virtually no control on biggest issue to public is staggering. I don't think its healthy for democracy for politicians to have to say "Yeah that thing you most want us to change? We can't change it." It just breeds extremism.Richard_Tyndall said:
I fully accept contributing. But the amount would be a fraction of what we pay now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled alreadyRichard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Free movement of labour is something I support.0 -
Governments can hardly change any ofvthe things the voters want then to change. Even if you got rid of the EU they'd still keep butting up against Reality.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I am apathetic on free movement itself, but the level of distrust in politics caused by the government having virtually no control on biggest issue to public is staggering. I don't think its healthy for democracy for politicians to have to say "Yeah that thing you most want us to change? We can't change it." It just breeds extremism.Richard_Tyndall said:
I fully accept contributing. But the amount would be a fraction of what we pay now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled alreadyRichard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Free movement of labour is something I support.0 -
McDonnell lives in a different planet if he thinks he can reform Europe. Does he know he has to get elected first?0
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Do you have source on TPP?rcs1000 said:
Sure:NorfolkTilIDie said:Could you explain your thoughts more?
The deals that the US signed with Japan, Australia and New Zealand - the Trans Pacific Partnership - are incredibly asymetrical. They allow far more goods into Japan, etc. tariff free than vice-versa. Likewise, they require those countries to essentially implement US intellectual property laws, and to keep those laws in lock-step with the US. That is the US using its heft to denude smaller countries of sovereignty, and I think it is incredibly naieve to think we would be able to resist this.
Similarly, the ISDS tribubals - that take place in secret - that are used under NAFTA to prevent (for example) the Quebec government from banning certain types of GM foods, are also a clear infringement of sovereignty imposed by the US, and worse happen in a secrete fashion.
The Swiss-Chinese FTA is another classic example. Very asymetrical in terms. So, Chinese firms can buy 100% of Swiss banks. Swiss banks can only own 49% of Chinese ones. Almost all Chinese goods enter China tariff free. The Swiss get a reduction in tariffs on watches from 12.5% to 7.5% over 10 years.
I do think there is extra element there of Pacific nations wanting US defence umbrella vs China, what puts them in weaker position.0 -
LOL People are actually backing President Romney at 119-1.0
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Another one in cloud cuckoo land .Scrapheap_as_was said:corrected
@johnmcdonnellMP is in cloud cuckoo land
https://www.politicshome.com/home-affairs/articles/story/diane-abbott-tells-labour-intolerant-immigration-rhetoric-could-drive
0 -
There are a few of us - Robert Smithson is another - who oppose the EU on practical and philosophical principles and for whom immigration is not a factor that registers at all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would compliment you Richard on being the first to give an honest and rational answer. I am just amazed that leavers don't seem to be as clear as you are and they need to come be as honest
My only exception to this is that I have said on here before that I consider the current migration policy within the EU to be inadvertently racist. It says that an unemployed Frenchman or Italian should have more rights to come to the UK than a highly qualified Indian or Chilean.
Now this again is a philosophical view and not one that in the end changes my view that the EEA is the best option. It is more another example of me realising that my views are in a small minority and unlikely ever to get close to the light of day. One side would attack me for wanting to restrict EU migration and the other would attack me for wanting to increase non EU migration. Neither would accept the fundamental unfairness of the system and the fact it runs counter to the best interests of our country. It is a fight I know I cannot win.0 -
@MrTyndall, & Jnr, many thanks for the reply to my earlier. - Good night all.0
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That's a shame as in some ways I can agree with youRichard_Tyndall said:
There are a few of us - Robert Smithson is another - who oppose the EU on practical and philosophical principles and for whom immigration is not a factor that registers at all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would compliment you Richard on being the first to give an honest and rational answer. I am just amazed that leavers don't seem to be as clear as you are and they need to come be as honest
My only exception to this is that I have said on here before that I consider the current migration policy within the EU to be inadvertently racist. It says that an unemployed Frenchman or Italian should have more rights to come to the UK than a highly qualified Indian or Chilean.
Now this again is a philosophical view and not one that in the end changes my view that the EEA is the best option. It is more another example of me realising that my views are in a small minority and unlikely ever to get close to the light of day. One side would attack me for wanting to restrict EU migration and the other would attack me for wanting to increase non EU migration. Neither would accept the fundamental unfairness of the system and the fact it runs counter to the best interests of our country. It is a fight I know I cannot win.0 -
PJ O'Roarke?rcs1000 said:
Giving power to politicians is like giving whisky and car keys to teenagers.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I am apathetic on free movement itself, but the level of distrust in politics caused by the government having virtually no control on biggest issue to public is staggering. I don't think its healthy for democracy for politicians to have to say "Yeah that thing you most want us to change? We can't change it." It just breeds extremism.Richard_Tyndall said:
I fully accept contributing. But the amount would be a fraction of what we pay now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled alreadyRichard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Free movement of labour is something I support.0 -
Free movement is the very thing I find objectionable about the EU. I couldn't care less about the businesses that depend on cheap labour at the tax payer's expense.0
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I suggest scaremongering is entirely accurate. Germany may have a preference but like every other country including the UK they also have to deal with Real Politik. If the UK left and were daft enough to dig in and say absolutely no to EEA membership then there would be a huge amount of wheeling and dealing and a deal would be done which didn't meet either side's absolute objectives but allowed them to save face. The alternative is something the Germans ave absolutely no control over which is trade under the WTO rules. Something that would be the worst result for both sides.viewcode said:
I won't debate with you about whether the course you outline is plausible. But surely characterising it as "scaremongering" is erroneous. Germany has an opinion about the deal it wishes to obtain post-Brexit. It isn't one you like, but it is the one it likes. That's not scaremongering, it's expressing a preference.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..0 -
Serious question: does Joe Public (including many intended "Out" voters) know what "Brexit" means? Wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people thought it was a cereal brand.0
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@Norfolk
Here's a good summary on the intellectual property provisions of the TPP. https://www.eff.org/issues/tpp
I'm in bed on my phone, but I'll happily send you some analysis I've seen on the trade deals in general when I'm back in the office tomorrow.0 -
I know, you advocate the Norway solution persuasively.Richard_Tyndall said:
I agree with you I would support it as well.Wanderer said:
If that were the only possible outcome of Leave and Germany were committed to supporting it I might well vote for it.Richard_Tyndall said:
A free trade area with freedom of movement.SimonStClare said:
Mr Tyndall, what is the Norway or Iceland option in brief? - TIA.Richard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
It would remove us from approx. 73% of the current EU legislation (I can explain the figures if anyone is interested including the old 9% argument which is sometimes misquoted) and would leave us subject only to that legislation related to the Single Market and freedom of movement.
For anyone not overly concerned with UK immigration it is a great option.
But I don't think the smorgasbord of options will cut through with the public.
For me what is key is:
* single market access
* free movement of labour (I see this as a benefit, not a problem)
* remaining at least loosely connected to the European "project" - I don't think it's wise to detach entirely
The Norway outcome would satisfy all that.
However I don't think it is a likely result of a Leave vote. EEA membership will be hugely controversial in Britain as it won't deal with free movement. It will be decried as "the EU by the back door". There would be the devil's job for Cameron's successor in getting it through Parliament. I don't think Leave will be in any sense smooth, controlled, orderly or predictable. Hence I'd rather stick with the status quo. Still, this German intervention nudges me a tiny bit towards Leave.0 -
Lab hold and peak UKIP
Bloomfield (Blackpool) result:
LAB: 57.6% (+12.8)
CON: 19.2% (-0.6)
UKIP: 15.1% (-10.0)
GRN: 4.1% (-4.6)
LDEM: 4.0% (+4.0)0 -
Yesviewcode said:
PJ O'Roarke?rcs1000 said:
Giving power to politicians is like giving whisky and car keys to teenagers.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I am apathetic on free movement itself, but the level of distrust in politics caused by the government having virtually no control on biggest issue to public is staggering. I don't think its healthy for democracy for politicians to have to say "Yeah that thing you most want us to change? We can't change it." It just breeds extremism.Richard_Tyndall said:
I fully accept contributing. But the amount would be a fraction of what we pay now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled alreadyRichard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Free movement of labour is something I support.0 -
Conservative HOLD Alderholt (East Dorset).0
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Its people like you who are not prepared to live in the real world but are intent on perpetuating their fantasies. Viewcode makes perfectly respectable points.Richard_Tyndall said:
I suggest scaremongering is entirely accurate. Germany may have a preference but like every other country including the UK they also have to deal with Real Politik. If the UK left and were daft enough to dig in and say absolutely no to EEA membership then there would be a huge amount of wheeling and dealing and a deal would be done which didn't meet either side's absolute objectives but allowed them to save face. The alternative is something the Germans ave absolutely no control over which is trade under the WTO rules. Something that would be the worst result for both sides.viewcode said:
I won't debate with you about whether the course you outline is plausible. But surely characterising it as "scaremongering" is erroneous. Germany has an opinion about the deal it wishes to obtain post-Brexit. It isn't one you like, but it is the one it likes. That's not scaremongering, it's expressing a preference.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..0 -
But Germany has not just stated a preference, it has said that those are the only two options that will be on offer - a statement it cannot make until after Brexit and a subsequent decision by the rEUviewcode said:
I won't debate with you about whether the course you outline is plausible. But surely characterising it as "scaremongering" is erroneous. Germany has an opinion about the deal it wishes to obtain post-Brexit. It isn't one you like, but it is the one it likes. That's not scaremongering, it's expressing a preference.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..0 -
Paddy Power frequently pay out early. They did so for the 2008 Ireland referendum and (if memory serves) the Greece 2015 referendum. Interestingly, I think they paid out on the wrong outcome...peter_from_putney said:
Eh? Non comprende - in what circumstances would PP conceivably pay out early?Pulpstar said:
Back with Paddy Power.peter_from_putney said:Off Topic
***** BETTING POST *****
Something for the weekend Sir?
I've been taking a look at the state of the Premier League's Manager "Sack Race" market.
Favourite to win the current round is Utd's LVG with best decimal odds of 4.33. After leading his side to four consecutive wins, his early departure appears decidedly unlikely.
Next in line comes Villa's Remi Garde who only seems to have been at the club 5 minutes, on offer at 4.5. He is followed by Norwich's Alex Neil priced at 8.0.
Surprisingly generously priced, in my view anyway, is fourth-placed Toon's boss Boss Steve McClaren who both Hills and Betfair Sportsbook have available at 9 (i.e. 8/1).
On Saturday, Newcastle are at home against Bournemouth who are also struggling somewhat, but nevertheless are on offer at fairly skinny best odds of only 2.88 to win this game.
I wonder whether McClaren could possibly survive a defeat by the Cherries?
Of course, one is second-guessing how the Chairmen of several football clubs might react to their various problems, but it seems to me that that the 2.88 price against Bournemouth winning is very different when compared with the 9.0 odds against Steve being given his early marching orders.
This falls decidedly into the "fun" category of betting and stakes should certainly be limited to a maximum of just a few quid.
DYOR.
They often pay out early on markets like this.0 -
Don't worry, if we Leave, Europe will be left with far more problems than us (2014 population + x-million invaders) - and, due to its basic ineptitude will sink further into its rather sh*t-laden mire.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
0 -
It's a fight worth fighting. Ukip grew as immigration became more of a concern but to me lost their way, perversely. Carswell rarely talks about immigration, if he does its about fairness and management along the lines you describe. I got into trouble for doing an interview saying immigration didn't bother me, I'm very aware it bothers plenty of others and I understand why.Richard_Tyndall said:
There are a few of us - Robert Smithson is another - who oppose the EU on practical and philosophical principles and for whom immigration is not a factor that registers at all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would compliment you Richard on being the first to give an honest and rational answer. I am just amazed that leavers don't seem to be as clear as you are and they need to come be as honest
My only exception to this is that I have said on here before that I consider the current migration policy within the EU to be inadvertently racist. It says that an unemployed Frenchman or Italian should have more rights to come to the UK than a highly qualified Indian or Chilean.
Now this again is a philosophical view and not one that in the end changes my view that the EEA is the best option. It is more another example of me realising that my views are in a small minority and unlikely ever to get close to the light of day. One side would attack me for wanting to restrict EU migration and the other would attack me for wanting to increase non EU migration. Neither would accept the fundamental unfairness of the system and the fact it runs counter to the best interests of our country. It is a fight I know I cannot win.
I'm anti EU because I'm anti bureaucracy at every level, govt has grown too big and become too expensive, its one big gravy train.
Seeing Cameron bumming up to Hollande, a bloke who if he was British Cameron would hold in contempt, nauseates me.0 -
His points are valid and destroy the Leaver argument.NorfolkTilIDie said:
Do you have source on TPP?rcs1000 said:
Sure:NorfolkTilIDie said:Could you explain your thoughts more?
The deals that the US signed with Japan, Australia and New Zealand - the Trans Pacific Partnership - are incredibly asymetrical. They allow far more goods into Japan, etc. tariff free than vice-versa. Likewise, they require those countries to essentially implement US intellectual property laws, and to keep those laws in lock-step with the US. That is the US using its heft to denude smaller countries of sovereignty, and I think it is incredibly naieve to think we would be able to resist this.
Similarly, the ISDS tribubals - that take place in secret - that are used under NAFTA to prevent (for example) the Quebec government from banning certain types of GM foods, are also a clear infringement of sovereignty imposed by the US, and worse happen in a secrete fashion.
The Swiss-Chinese FTA is another classic example. Very asymetrical in terms. So, Chinese firms can buy 100% of Swiss banks. Swiss banks can only own 49% of Chinese ones. Almost all Chinese goods enter China tariff free. The Swiss get a reduction in tariffs on watches from 12.5% to 7.5% over 10 years.
I do think there is extra element there of Pacific nations wanting US defence umbrella vs China, what puts them in weaker position.0 -
I can't help thinking that in a rEU what Germany wants will be highly prioritised, and what the UK wants...won't.MTimT said:
But Germany has not just stated a preference, it has said that those are the only two options that will be on offer - a statement it cannot make until after Brexit and a subsequent decision by the rEUviewcode said:
I won't debate with you about whether the course you outline is plausible. But surely characterising it as "scaremongering" is erroneous. Germany has an opinion about the deal it wishes to obtain post-Brexit. It isn't one you like, but it is the one it likes. That's not scaremongering, it's expressing a preference.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..0 -
Norway has 15% immigrant population. This from being outside the EU. We have significant immigration from beyond the EU anyway. In terms of numbers its higher than from within the EU.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled alreadyRichard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Its dishonest of the Leavers to major on immigration. Its the real project fear its the real scaremongering. It is of course why Carswell has fallen out with Farage. There is little difference to being in the EEA and being in the EU, and RCS100 has been pointing out the problems of dealing with big blocks on our own.0 -
Per Anthony Wells - a couple of findings from the YouGov poll of Con members that would be a surprise if you only read the comments on here:
"Only a quarter of Tory party members said that the leadership candidates’s stances on the EU were an important factor in picking the next leader"
"Among Conservative party members there is very little call for Cameron to make an early departure"
Lots of people on here seem to be winding themselves up into a frenzy about the EU. Most people really aren't that bothered either way - and, perhaps surprisingly, even most Con party members are not that bothered.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/0 -
He was great in the 80's, but I think he peaked around "Parliament of Whores": after that he got a bit repetitive, although that's not really a problem. His later stuff post-cancer and the 2007/8 crash was a bit disjointed, tho' that may simply be a factor of age: he's older, richer, happily married father, he's bound to have a more relaxed view. Although I still have fond memories of his description of why a pick-up truck is the best car in the world...rcs1000 said:
Yesviewcode said:
PJ O'Roarke?rcs1000 said:
Giving power to politicians is like giving whisky and car keys to teenagers.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I am apathetic on free movement itself, but the level of distrust in politics caused by the government having virtually no control on biggest issue to public is staggering. I don't think its healthy for democracy for politicians to have to say "Yeah that thing you most want us to change? We can't change it." It just breeds extremism.Richard_Tyndall said:
I fully accept contributing. But the amount would be a fraction of what we pay now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled alreadyRichard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Free movement of labour is something I support.0 -
More than 1 in 7 in Norway are immigrants? Seems remarkably high.flightpath01 said:
Norway has 15% immigrant population. This from being outside the EU. We have significant immigration from beyond the EU anyway. In terms of numbers its higher than from within the EU.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled alreadyRichard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Its dishonest of the Leavers to major on immigration. Its the real project fear its the real scaremongering. It is of course why Carswell has fallen out with Farage. There is little difference to being in the EEA and being in the EU, and RCS100 has been pointing out the problems of dealing with big blocks on our own.
Not that I'm bothered, its clearly their choice. Perhaps their politicians aren't as useless as ours, our PM says he'll reduce immigration and it continues to rise.0 -
Alice in Wonderland led a saner life than youTCPoliticalBetting said:
So is Cameron going to stand up and say "I have a piece of paper from the German Chancellor". That did not end well last time for the English PM. Is David Chamberlain Cameron going to announce this?Big_G_NorthWales said:
ITV are only quoting what Germany has stated today though their reporter did say it was significantNorfolkTilIDie said:
I actually think psychological effects of perceived attempts at bullying would favour leave.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
However it is ridiculous to claim they would offer an option to South Korea that isn't available to the UK.
That known nutcase Bone may actually deliver the coup de grace at the next PMQs.. Is it true Mr Cameron that you have been told by the Germans..... Would Cameron survive?0 -
I loved his travel journalism. Holidays in Hell is hilariousviewcode said:
He was great in the 80's, but I think he peaked around "Parliament of Whores": after that he got a bit repetitive, although that's not really a problem. His later stuff post-cancer and the 2007/8 crash was a bit disjointed, tho' that may simply be a factor of age: he's older, richer, happily married father, he's bound to have a more relaxed view. Although I still have fond memories of his description of why a pick-up truck is the best car in the world...rcs1000 said:
Yesviewcode said:
PJ O'Roarke?rcs1000 said:
Giving power to politicians is like giving whisky and car keys to teenagers.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I am apathetic on free movement itself, but the level of distrust in politics caused by the government having virtually no control on biggest issue to public is staggering. I don't think its healthy for democracy for politicians to have to say "Yeah that thing you most want us to change? We can't change it." It just breeds extremism.Richard_Tyndall said:
I fully accept contributing. But the amount would be a fraction of what we pay now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled alreadyRichard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Free movement of labour is something I support.0 -
Why the F is Esther McVey on This Week.
I was hoping I could never hear her fake Scouse accent again.0 -
Conservative HOLD Bondfields (Havant).0
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Is that the same piece in which he explains how a rented car is better than 4 wheel drive, front-wheel drive etc etc. I love that.viewcode said:
He was great in the 80's, but I think he peaked around "Parliament of Whores": after that he got a bit repetitive, although that's not really a problem. His later stuff post-cancer and the 2007/8 crash was a bit disjointed, tho' that may simply be a factor of age: he's older, richer, happily married father, he's bound to have a more relaxed view. Although I still have fond memories of his description of why a pick-up truck is the best car in the world...rcs1000 said:
Yesviewcode said:
PJ O'Roarke?rcs1000 said:
Giving power to politicians is like giving whisky and car keys to teenagers.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I am apathetic on free movement itself, but the level of distrust in politics caused by the government having virtually no control on biggest issue to public is staggering. I don't think its healthy for democracy for politicians to have to say "Yeah that thing you most want us to change? We can't change it." It just breeds extremism.Richard_Tyndall said:
I fully accept contributing. But the amount would be a fraction of what we pay now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled alreadyRichard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from Germany
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Free movement of labour is something I support.0 -
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.0 -
Alderholt is in East DORSET rather than East DEVON, so the reference to Hugo Swire in the article is wrong. The MP is Simon Hoare.0
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Loonyism is as rampant as ever. Far too many people revealing themselves as fully paid up members of Total Nutjobs International.watford30 said:
What cuts? Osborne's been on a spend-a-thon.chestnut said:
Cameron plus Osborne are done.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Now there is an issue that makes me turn in to a EU outer head-banger form of rage.TheScreamingEagles said:
Osborne needs to stop buggering about with pensions, it's ridiculous trying to do long term planning when the rules are continually being changed. 'A' day is a long time ago now.
It may not seem like that to people from the bubble, but how many times are people going to listen to more cuts, extended pension ages, 'vote in, or Dover gets it'?
Dead men waffling.
Smirkers problem now is that the public won't accept any real cuts, so he's going to have to steal from pensions or shove up taxes.0 -
Was that the one where he met the wee Scottish girl who kicked her way to the front of the queue for a bus in the Lebanon? Or where he was in the bar with the two rich Hong Kong women who complained that the British snubbed them (he rendered it as "snurbed").rcs1000 said:
I loved his travel journalism. Holidays in Hell is hilariousviewcode said:
He was great in the 80's, but I think he peaked around "Parliament of Whores": after that he got a bit repetitive, although that's not really a problem. His later stuff post-cancer and the 2007/8 crash was a bit disjointed, tho' that may simply be a factor of age: he's older, richer, happily married father, he's bound to have a more relaxed view. Although I still have fond memories of his description of why a pick-up truck is the best car in the world...rcs1000 said:0 -
Every other day for the last 365 you have been saying there is a big development, the only big development today is the last GOP nominee attacking the likely next nominee and visa versa. If that goes on further and the GOP establishment maybe even put up their own rival candidate unless Hillary gets sent to Alcatraz she will likely still end up in the Oval Office!Tim_B said:BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.0 -
Bondfields (Havant) result:
CON: 30.2% (-3.4)
LDEM: 27.3% (+16.0)
LAB: 21.6% (-6.9)
UKIP: 20.9% (+20.9)0 -
Liberal Democrat HOLD Whissendine (Rutland).0
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All four parties within 10%? niftyTheScreamingEagles said:Bondfields (Havant) result:
CON: 30.2% (-3.4)
LDEM: 27.3% (+16.0)
LAB: 21.6% (-6.9)
UKIP: 20.9% (+20.9)0 -
O-Jo coming up on This Week.0
-
So we have been threatened today by both France and Germany.MTimT said:
But Germany has not just stated a preference, it has said that those are the only two options that will be on offer - a statement it cannot make until after Brexit and a subsequent decision by the rEUviewcode said:
I won't debate with you about whether the course you outline is plausible. But surely characterising it as "scaremongering" is erroneous. Germany has an opinion about the deal it wishes to obtain post-Brexit. It isn't one you like, but it is the one it likes. That's not scaremongering, it's expressing a preference.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Good luck with that.0 -
I think so. And of course, what makes it piquant is that Jeremy Clarkson nicked it, if not quite word-for-word, for an episode of "Top Gear". He kept it just this side of plagiarism, but I was yelling at the screen...Wanderer said:
Is that the same piece in which he explains how a rented car is better than 4 wheel drive, front-wheel drive etc etc. I love that.viewcode said:
He was great in the 80's, but I think he peaked around "Parliament of Whores": after that he got a bit repetitive, although that's not really a problem. His later stuff post-cancer and the 2007/8 crash was a bit disjointed, tho' that may simply be a factor of age: he's older, richer, happily married father, he's bound to have a more relaxed view. Although I still have fond memories of his description of why a pick-up truck is the best car in the world...rcs1000 said:
Yesviewcode said:
PJ O'Roarke?rcs1000 said:
Giving power to politicians is like giving whisky and car keys to teenagers.NorfolkTilIDie said:
I am apathetic on free movement itself, but the level of distrust in politics caused by the government having virtually no control on biggest issue to public is staggering. I don't think its healthy for democracy for politicians to have to say "Yeah that thing you most want us to change? We can't change it." It just breeds extremism.Richard_Tyndall said:
I fully accept contributing. But the amount would be a fraction of what we pay now.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled alreadyRichard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from Germany
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Free movement of labour is something I support.
0 -
Possibly a lot of churn but Green votes have gone to LD and Kippers, who come last.William_H said:
All four parties within 10%? niftyTheScreamingEagles said:Bondfields (Havant) result:
CON: 30.2% (-3.4)
LDEM: 27.3% (+16.0)
LAB: 21.6% (-6.9)
UKIP: 20.9% (+20.9)0 -
Andrew Neil just completely demolished Project Fear in an End of Days epilogue...0
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Neal taking the p!$$ out of 'call me Dave' Cameron0
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Some say threatened - some say stating their position - anyway it's late - good night everyonenigel4england said:
So we have been threatened today by both France and Germany.MTimT said:
But Germany has not just stated a preference, it has said that those are the only two options that will be on offer - a statement it cannot make until after Brexit and a subsequent decision by the rEUviewcode said:
I won't debate with you about whether the course you outline is plausible. But surely characterising it as "scaremongering" is erroneous. Germany has an opinion about the deal it wishes to obtain post-Brexit. It isn't one you like, but it is the one it likes. That's not scaremongering, it's expressing a preference.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Good luck with that.0 -
I think we are all very well aware that you wouldn't know the real world if it kicked you in the bollocks. Assuming they have even dropped yet. We are having a proper conversation here. Go back and play with your lego.flightpath01 said:
Its people like you who are not prepared to live in the real world but are intent on perpetuating their fantasies. Viewcode makes perfectly respectable points.Richard_Tyndall said:
I suggest scaremongering is entirely accurate. Germany may have a preference but like every other country including the UK they also have to deal with Real Politik. If the UK left and were daft enough to dig in and say absolutely no to EEA membership then there would be a huge amount of wheeling and dealing and a deal would be done which didn't meet either side's absolute objectives but allowed them to save face. The alternative is something the Germans ave absolutely no control over which is trade under the WTO rules. Something that would be the worst result for both sides.viewcode said:
I won't debate with you about whether the course you outline is plausible. But surely characterising it as "scaremongering" is erroneous. Germany has an opinion about the deal it wishes to obtain post-Brexit. It isn't one you like, but it is the one it likes. That's not scaremongering, it's expressing a preference.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..0 -
Whissendine (Rutland) result:
LDEM: 65.1% (-0.7)
CON: 26.8% (-7.4)
UKIP: 8.1% (+8.1)0 -
Did you expect us Leaving the EU was going to painlessly endear us to our continental cousins? Or perhaps be a bumpy road?nigel4england said:
So we have been threatened today by both France and Germany.MTimT said:
But Germany has not just stated a preference, it has said that those are the only two options that will be on offer - a statement it cannot make until after Brexit and a subsequent decision by the rEUviewcode said:
I won't debate with you about whether the course you outline is plausible. But surely characterising it as "scaremongering" is erroneous. Germany has an opinion about the deal it wishes to obtain post-Brexit. It isn't one you like, but it is the one it likes. That's not scaremongering, it's expressing a preference.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Good luck with that.0 -
And some say it's Dodgy Dave putting them up to it, which is much nearer the truth.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Some say threatened - some say stating their position - anyway it's late - good night everyonenigel4england said:
So we have been threatened today by both France and Germany.MTimT said:
But Germany has not just stated a preference, it has said that those are the only two options that will be on offer - a statement it cannot make until after Brexit and a subsequent decision by the rEUviewcode said:
I won't debate with you about whether the course you outline is plausible. But surely characterising it as "scaremongering" is erroneous. Germany has an opinion about the deal it wishes to obtain post-Brexit. It isn't one you like, but it is the one it likes. That's not scaremongering, it's expressing a preference.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Good luck with that.0 -
Excellent result. Nice to have an absolute majority in the rural East Midlands.TheScreamingEagles said:Whissendine (Rutland) result:
LDEM: 65.1% (-0.7)
CON: 26.8% (-7.4)
UKIP: 8.1% (+8.1)0 -
A couple of years at the most of a bumpy road but to be honest I could not care what shit they come out with.foxinsoxuk said:
Did you expect us Leaving the EU was going to painlessly endear us to our continental cousins? Or perhaps be a bumpy road?nigel4england said:
So we have been threatened today by both France and Germany.MTimT said:
But Germany has not just stated a preference, it has said that those are the only two options that will be on offer - a statement it cannot make until after Brexit and a subsequent decision by the rEUviewcode said:
I won't debate with you about whether the course you outline is plausible. But surely characterising it as "scaremongering" is erroneous. Germany has an opinion about the deal it wishes to obtain post-Brexit. It isn't one you like, but it is the one it likes. That's not scaremongering, it's expressing a preference.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why when it is coming from GermanyRichard_Tyndall said:
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
Good luck with that.
Of course filling in forms will be much more difficult for you but a small price to pay for the future generations of the U.K.0 -
A tad too much hyperbole there, but it is you.HYUFD said:
Every other day for the last 365 you have been saying there is a big development, the only big development today is the last GOP nominee attacking the likely next nominee and visa versa. If that goes on further and the GOP establishment maybe even put up their own rival candidate unless Hillary gets sent to Alcatraz she will likely still end up in the Oval Office!Tim_B said:BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
His name may be Mitt but today he took the gloves off. He's also irrelevant. It will not affect Trump's numbers.
When the FBI grants immunity in a criminal investigation it is a big development.0
