Richard. I find there are some forum members who it is best to just ignore. Most people do and they just witter away not noticing nobody responds to them!!
ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.
Why when it is coming from Germany
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
I won't debate with you about whether the course you outline is plausible. But surely characterising it as "scaremongering" is erroneous. Germany has an opinion about the deal it wishes to obtain post-Brexit. It isn't one you like, but it is the one it likes. That's not scaremongering, it's expressing a preference.
But Germany has not just stated a preference, it has said that those are the only two options that will be on offer - a statement it cannot make until after Brexit and a subsequent decision by the rEU
So we have been threatened today by both France and Germany.
Good luck with that.
Did you expect us Leaving the EU was going to painlessly endear us to our continental cousins? Or perhaps be a bumpy road?
A couple of years at the most of a bumpy road but to be honest I could not care what shit they come out with.
Of course filling in forms will be much more difficult for you but a small price to pay for the future generations of the U.K.
The future generations of the UK are strongly pro-Remain, if you care for them then vote Remain.
ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.
Why when it is coming from Germany
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled already
Norway has 15% immigrant population. This from being outside the EU. We have significant immigration from beyond the EU anyway. In terms of numbers its higher than from within the EU. Its dishonest of the Leavers to major on immigration. Its the real project fear its the real scaremongering. It is of course why Carswell has fallen out with Farage. There is little difference to being in the EEA and being in the EU, and RCS100 has been pointing out the problems of dealing with big blocks on our own.
More than 1 in 7 in Norway are immigrants? Seems remarkably high.
Not that I'm bothered, its clearly their choice. Perhaps their politicians aren't as useless as ours, our PM says he'll reduce immigration and it continues to rise.
ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.
Why when it is coming from Germany
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
I won't debate with you about whether the course you outline is plausible. But surely characterising it as "scaremongering" is erroneous. Germany has an opinion about the deal it wishes to obtain post-Brexit. It isn't one you like, but it is the one it likes. That's not scaremongering, it's expressing a preference.
But Germany has not just stated a preference, it has said that those are the only two options that will be on offer - a statement it cannot make until after Brexit and a subsequent decision by the rEU
So we have been threatened today by both France and Germany.
Good luck with that.
Did you expect us Leaving the EU was going to painlessly endear us to our continental cousins? Or perhaps be a bumpy road?
A couple of years at the most of a bumpy road but to be honest I could not care what shit they come out with.
Of course filling in forms will be much more difficult for you but a small price to pay for the future generations of the U.K.
The future generations of the UK are strongly pro-Remain, if you care for them then vote Remain.
Really? My grandkids get a vote do they?
What does Remain offer to future generations, why don't you outline right now the benefits for them, and please don't include how form filling and retiring to the sun will be easier for you personally.
ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.
Why when it is coming from Germany
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled already
I fully accept contributing. But the amount would be a fraction of what we pay now.
Free movement of labour is something I support.
I am apathetic on free movement itself, but the level of distrust in politics caused by the government having virtually no control on biggest issue to public is staggering. I don't think its healthy for democracy for politicians to have to say "Yeah that thing you most want us to change? We can't change it." It just breeds extremism.
Governments can hardly change any ofvthe things the voters want then to change. Even if you got rid of the EU they'd still keep butting up against Reality.
Something not being possible because of reality is legitimate argument. Something being possible but won't be done because power has been given away is dangerous for trust in the system. Its ok for small stuff but not a top 3 issue.
ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.
Why when it is coming from Germany
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
As you support Norway case do you then accept contributing and free movement of labour. As far as knowing their support in the EU I would expect that Germany already has the 'ear' of the other EU states in the event of Brexit. Indeed I would expect it to being modelled already
Norway has 15% immigrant population. This from being outside the EU. We have significant immigration from beyond the EU anyway. In terms of numbers its higher than from within the EU. Its dishonest of the Leavers to major on immigration. Its the real project fear its the real scaremongering. It is of course why Carswell has fallen out with Farage. There is little difference to being in the EEA and being in the EU, and RCS100 has been pointing out the problems of dealing with big blocks on our own.
More than 1 in 7 in Norway are immigrants? Seems remarkably high.
Not that I'm bothered, its clearly their choice. Perhaps their politicians aren't as useless as ours, our PM says he'll reduce immigration and it continues to rise.
They're mainly Swedes.
The biggest immigrant population is Polish, followed by Swedish, Somali, Lithuanian then Pakistani. About half of Norways immigrant population is of non-EU origin.
ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.
Why when it is coming from Germany
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
I won't debate with you about whether the course you outline is plausible. But surely characterising it as "scaremongering" is erroneous. Germany has an opinion about the deal it wishes to obtain post-Brexit. It isn't one you like, but it is the one it likes. That's not scaremongering, it's expressing a preference.
But Germany has not just stated a preference, it has said that those are the only two options that will be on offer - a statement it cannot make until after Brexit and a subsequent decision by the rEU
So we have been threatened today by both France and Germany.
Good luck with that.
Did you expect us Leaving the EU was going to painlessly endear us to our continental cousins? Or perhaps be a bumpy road?
A couple of years at the most of a bumpy road but to be honest I could not care what shit they come out with.
Of course filling in forms will be much more difficult for you but a small price to pay for the future generations of the U.K.
The future generations of the UK are strongly pro-Remain, if you care for them then vote Remain.
If they cared for themselves theyd vote with the wisdom of their elders!!
More than 1 in 7 in Norway are immigrants? Seems remarkably high.
Not that I'm bothered, its clearly their choice. Perhaps their politicians aren't as useless as ours, our PM says he'll reduce immigration and it continues to rise.
Norway has always been very Scandinavian (i.e. welcoming) in its attitude to migrants, in a way that Denmark and Sweden were but have faltered with as the numbers grew. That said, they are very serious about integration - if you want to settle there, you need to learn the language and a lot about the country, much more than our "who invented the vacuum cleaner" test. They have lots of space, of course, and in general few hangups about foreigners per se - their view is that if you want to live there and make a serious go of it, that's fine. I can imagine quite a few people who object to immigration here feeling that it wouldn't be so bad in that form. But Richard Tyndall has been there more recently than me and may have a modified view.
Apropos my earlier Betting Post below relating to the current stage of the Premier League "Sack Race", I've just spotted this related headline in tomorrow's Daily Mail Sports Pages:
"Newcastle players expect Steve McClaren to be sacked if club lose to Bournemouth amid dressing room unrest."
For the avoidance of doubt, I do not work for or have any connection with the Daily Mail!
Apropos my earlier Betting Post below relating to the current stage of the Premier League "Sack Race", I've just spotted this related headline in tomorrow's Daily Mail Sports Pages:
"Newcastle players expect Steve McClaren to be sacked if club lose to Bournemouth amid dressing room unrest."
For the avoidance of doubt, I do not work for or have any connection with the Daily Mail!
Probably a good bet, Sunderland won't sack Allardyce and Garde may walk but Villa won't sack him, I can see Newcastle bringing in Nigel Pearson for the last few games though.
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th.
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
Apropos my earlier Betting Post below relating to the current stage of the Premier League "Sack Race", I've just spotted this related headline in tomorrow's Daily Mail Sports Pages:
"Newcastle players expect Steve McClaren to be sacked if club lose to Bournemouth amid dressing room unrest."
For the avoidance of doubt, I do not work for or have any connection with the Daily Mail!
Probably a good bet, Sunderland won't sack Allardyce and Garde may walk but Villa won't sack him, I can see Newcastle bringing in Nigel Pearson for the last few games though.
I can see Pulis being sacked at some point, I could tell you a few stories about him but I respect Mike's wish not to be sued!
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th. Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
I've just had a fiver on Biden at 50/1 with sportingbet, he's best-priced at 33/1 elsewhere.
Apropos my earlier Betting Post below relating to the current stage of the Premier League "Sack Race", I've just spotted this related headline in tomorrow's Daily Mail Sports Pages:
"Newcastle players expect Steve McClaren to be sacked if club lose to Bournemouth amid dressing room unrest."
For the avoidance of doubt, I do not work for or have any connection with the Daily Mail!
Probably a good bet, Sunderland won't sack Allardyce and Garde may walk but Villa won't sack him, I can see Newcastle bringing in Nigel Pearson for the last few games though.
I can see Pulis being sacked at some point, I could tell you a few stories about him but I respect Mike's wish not to be sued!
A manager doesn't need to be sacked to qualify, but rather to leave his position for any reason.
Hmm The race is moving into his area next. I hope he gets some time to talk in the debate.
Indeed, his only chance is to win Ohio while Rubio loses Florida, making him the establishment and moderate candidate by default but that is the longest of long shots
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th.
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
I'm sure it will be after the 15th. Looks like they are going for a conspiracy of Clinton and aides.
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
Sorry, but what do you mean exactly by your final sentence?
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th.
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
Were the charges so bad Hillary was forced to withdraw ie treasonable then it would likely be a Biden-Warren ticket, with Biden serving four years if he beats Trump and Warren the nominee in 2020
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th.
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
Were the charges so bad Hillary was forced to withdraw ie treasonable then it would likely be a Biden-Warren ticket, with Biden serving four years if he beats Trump and Warren the nominee in 2020
If he beats Trump? The GOP could be inspired by this and try to land some tax evasion charges or similar on Trump and we could see a Biden v Romney election.
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th.
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
Were the charges so bad Hillary was forced to withdraw ie treasonable then it would likely be a Biden-Warren ticket, with Biden serving four years if he beats Trump and Warren the nominee in 2020
ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
I am getting rather tired with what Germany say is or isn't on offer.
ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
For all that I would be very happy with the Norway or Iceland option, this really is so much bollocks.
Why when it is coming from Germany
Because if they won't negotiate under the Article 50 terms then the UK leaves anyway before the two years is up and negotiates a trade deal from outside - which will be decided by QMV where Germany has no veto.
Personally I want the Norway option. But Germany claiming that is the only deal on the table is simply rubbish as they do not know until the negotiations actually take place if they have the support amongst the rest of the EU to push that through.
It is yet another case of scare mongering hoping to influence those who don't know any better..
I won't debate with you about whether the course you outline is plausible. But surely characterising it as "scaremongering" is erroneous. Germany has an opinion about the deal it wishes to obtain post-Brexit. It isn't one you like, but it is the one it likes. That's not scaremongering, it's expressing a preference.
But Germany has not just stated a preference, it has said that those are the only two options that will be on offer - a statement it cannot make until after Brexit and a subsequent decision by the rEU
So we have been threatened today by both France and Germany.
Good luck with that.
Did you expect us Leaving the EU was going to painlessly endear us to our continental cousins? Or perhaps be a bumpy road?
A couple of years at the most of a bumpy road but to be honest I could not care what shit they come out with.
Of course filling in forms will be much more difficult for you but a small price to pay for the future generations of the U.K.
The future generations of the UK are strongly pro-Remain, if you care for them then vote Remain.
ITV reporting that Germany has said that in the event of Brexit the Norway or Iceland options would be the only ones on offer and would require contributions and accept free movement of labour. No doubt Germany will be accused of scaremongering but if that becomes the EU position leave will have a problem
I am getting rather tired with what Germany say is or isn't on offer.
We fought two World Wars to prevent Germany calling the shots.
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th.
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
Were the charges so bad Hillary was forced to withdraw ie treasonable then it would likely be a Biden-Warren ticket, with Biden serving four years if he beats Trump and Warren the nominee in 2020
If he beats Trump? The GOP could be inspired by this and try to land some tax evasion charges or similar on Trump and we could see a Biden v Romney election.
Yes, Romney certainly sounded like there was a smoking gun on Trump's tax affairs, both main party nominees have a whole wardrobe of skeletons! Though I think in the end both are more likely than not to be nominee
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th.
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
Were the charges so bad Hillary was forced to withdraw ie treasonable then it would likely be a Biden-Warren ticket, with Biden serving four years if he beats Trump and Warren the nominee in 2020
I've got Bernie laid out at the moment.
He would get a further short time bounce but Biden would be the long-term option
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th.
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
Were the charges so bad Hillary was forced to withdraw ie treasonable then it would likely be a Biden-Warren ticket, with Biden serving four years if he beats Trump and Warren the nominee in 2020
If he beats Trump? The GOP could be inspired by this and try to land some tax evasion charges or similar on Trump and we could see a Biden v Romney election.
Biden would utterly slaughter Mitt Romney. The white knight saviour of the Dems vs the loser from last time who denied the popular primary vote winner in a back room deal ?
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th.
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
Were the charges so bad Hillary was forced to withdraw ie treasonable then it would likely be a Biden-Warren ticket, with Biden serving four years if he beats Trump and Warren the nominee in 2020
If he beats Trump? The GOP could be inspired by this and try to land some tax evasion charges or similar on Trump and we could see a Biden v Romney election.
Yes, Romney certainly sounded like there was a smoking gun on Trump's tax affairs, both main party nominees have a whole wardrobe of skeletons! Though I think in the end both are more likely than not to be nominee
Someone like Trump will be audited by the IRS automatically every year. It's a different process than for a poor guy like me. It's more oversight. The IRS goes to him and his accountants. If audited I have to go to the IRS.
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th.
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
Were the charges so bad Hillary was forced to withdraw ie treasonable then it would likely be a Biden-Warren ticket, with Biden serving four years if he beats Trump and Warren the nominee in 2020
If indicted, the charges will be national security, misuse of classified information and public corruption.
I'm sure the Democrats have Plan B ready - rules changes, plans for preferred candidates, changes in qualifying etc.
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th.
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
Were the charges so bad Hillary was forced to withdraw ie treasonable then it would likely be a Biden-Warren ticket, with Biden serving four years if he beats Trump and Warren the nominee in 2020
If he beats Trump? The GOP could be inspired by this and try to land some tax evasion charges or similar on Trump and we could see a Biden v Romney election.
Yes, Romney certainly sounded like there was a smoking gun on Trump's tax affairs, both main party nominees have a whole wardrobe of skeletons! Though I think in the end both are more likely than not to be nominee
Someone like Trump will be audited by the IRS automatically every year. It's a different process than for a poor guy like me. It's more oversight. The IRS goes to him and his accountants. If audited I have to go to the IRS.
Trump has multiple companies, dodgy links with some shady businessmen, Romney would not have made the speech he did today if he did not know there was plenty of dirt at the top of Trump Towers!
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th.
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
Were the charges so bad Hillary was forced to withdraw ie treasonable then it would likely be a Biden-Warren ticket, with Biden serving four years if he beats Trump and Warren the nominee in 2020
If indicted, the charges will be national security, misuse of classified information and public corruption.
I'm sure the Democrats have Plan B ready - rules changes, plans for preferred candidates, changes in qualifying etc.
We will know only if and when they are laid and if they are serious enough to impact on the campaign.
Of course with Hillary now racking up the delegates the Dems have to have a fallback if she is forced to withdraw, almost certainly Biden-Warren
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
Sorry, but what do you mean exactly by your final sentence?
Up until now the FBI investigation has been - we thought thus far - a fishing expedition.
Pagliano took the 5th repeatedly when subpoenaed by the Benghazi committee. I don't blame him for doing so by the way.
The FBI giving immunity in exchange for testimony shows a couple of things -
1. You don't give immunity to someone unless they will have to testify. 2. You don't give immunity unless they have something important to say.
It also means the FBI investigation is much further along than we thought. They have done fishing and are at an advanced stage in putting a case together.
The immunity grant suggests to me that this indictment recommendation is now more likely than not to happen. 51% or 99% have no idea. But this is serious for Hillary.
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th.
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
I've got a suspicion that the heaviest load is going to fall on Sullivan as a shield for Hillary and Huma, and as the person to whom it fell to repackage classified information into unmarked communications. But if Pagliano points the finger at Hillary as making the stipulations directly on the set up and purpose of the private server, which I very much doubt she would have done, it would be bad indeed for her.
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th.
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
Were the charges so bad Hillary was forced to withdraw ie treasonable then it would likely be a Biden-Warren ticket, with Biden serving four years if he beats Trump and Warren the nominee in 2020
I've got Bernie laid out at the moment.
We have Bernie laid out on the sofa - and Irish (black and tan) Jack Russell, named after Bernoulli not Sanders. He is so short he has to fly across the grass, hence the name.
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th.
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
Were the charges so bad Hillary was forced to withdraw ie treasonable then it would likely be a Biden-Warren ticket, with Biden serving four years if he beats Trump and Warren the nominee in 2020
If he beats Trump? The GOP could be inspired by this and try to land some tax evasion charges or similar on Trump and we could see a Biden v Romney election.
Yes, Romney certainly sounded like there was a smoking gun on Trump's tax affairs, both main party nominees have a whole wardrobe of skeletons! Though I think in the end both are more likely than not to be nominee
Someone like Trump will be audited by the IRS automatically every year. It's a different process than for a poor guy like me. It's more oversight. The IRS goes to him and his accountants. If audited I have to go to the IRS.
Trump has multiple companies, dodgy links with some shady businessmen, Romney would not have made the speech he did today if he did not know there was plenty of dirt at the top of Trump Towers!
I'd rather assume the IRS oversight on Trump is competent than believe in a political speech by the 2012 loser.
There's no dirt in Trump's tax returns. The worst you can expect is that his charitable donations are not what he claims.
While waiting for the debate to start I've just been listening to the start of the previous Fox debate and was reminded that Ted Cruz was calling for the carpet bombing of Syria. How is it that Trump is the scary candidate?
Once again I will live comment the GOP debate on PB.
God I hope and pray that this is the last GOP debate for the year, I'm worn out by all this, one reason why I want Trump to rap the nomination quickly is that I can't stand this freaking schedule.
While waiting for the debate to start I've just been listening to the start of the previous Fox debate and was reminded that Ted Cruz was calling for the carpet bombing of Syria. How is it that Trump is the scary candidate?
Trump is the least scary candidate on foreign affairs, Kasich and Rubio want to nuke Iran, Russia, China and N.Korea.
BIG developments on the Clinton email scandal today.
The staffer who set up the Clinton email server - Bryan Pagliano - has been granted immunity by DOJ in exchange for his testimony. That means a grand jury has been empanelled or soon will be, and he is actively helping the FBI. That means he knows where the bodies are buried.
Also multiple sources have let it be known that the FBI will be interviewing about a dozen State Department folks, as well as Clinton and her associates over the next few weeks.
If I was a betting man, for the first time I think this is (slightly) more likely to happen than not.
So long as the FBI moves after March 15th.
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
Were the charges so bad Hillary was forced to withdraw ie treasonable then it would likely be a Biden-Warren ticket, with Biden serving four years if he beats Trump and Warren the nominee in 2020
If indicted, the charges will be national security, misuse of classified information and public corruption.
I'm sure the Democrats have Plan B ready - rules changes, plans for preferred candidates, changes in qualifying etc.
We will know only if and when they are laid and if they are serious enough to impact on the campaign.
Of course with Hillary now racking up the delegates the Dems have to have a fallback if she is forced to withdraw, almost certainly Biden-Warren
If she is indicted on national security, misuse of classified information and public corruption charges, she is gone. More accurately the party will ditch her Because you can't run for office with those kind of charges. It may be legal but it's not realistic.
She is already way underwater on 'honest and trustworthy' and this will kill her campaign.
Loretta Lynch said yesterday that the White House has not been kept informed of the progress of the investigation, and that FBI Director Comey is getting daily updates.
At some point a decision has to be made about the FBI recommendation. Loretta Lynch - unlike the race baiter Holder, can be relied on to do the right thing.
After all she's the one behind the FIFA charges, an investigation she led for 3 years.
While waiting for the debate to start I've just been listening to the start of the previous Fox debate and was reminded that Ted Cruz was calling for the carpet bombing of Syria. How is it that Trump is the scary candidate?
Because he wants carpet bombing without the underlay
Once again I will live comment the GOP debate on PB.
God I hope and pray that this is the last GOP debate for the year, I'm worn out by all this, one reason why I want Trump to rap the nomination quickly is that I can't stand this freaking schedule.
Get those fingers dancing on the keyboard Speedy. It's time
Once again I will live comment the GOP debate on PB.
God I hope and pray that this is the last GOP debate for the year, I'm worn out by all this, one reason why I want Trump to rap the nomination quickly is that I can't stand this freaking schedule.
Trump: He was a failed candidate, he failed miserably, he was an embarrasement, Trade is killing us, china and mexico are killing us, free trade ok but not when they are killing us, china 500 billion, mexico 58 million, japan, we lose money, re-do trade deals, make great trade deals.
Question on KKK.
Trump: I disavow the KKK and David Duke, I disavow, why on noone looked on my twitter account.
Question on Rubio why he is personally attacking Trump.
Rubio: Trump has attacked everyone, Trump's deserved to be attacked like that, lets have a policy debate, cryz strategy, healthcare, the media, the issues, lets start.
Trump: I also have called him a lighweight, i take it back, he hit my hands are my hands small, is my penis small.
It's absolutely gorgeous. I've been there. I have to say that the Fabulous Fox Theatre in Atlanta is nicer but many of the old Fox Theatres are lovely lovely auditoriums.
Cruz: in the end of the day it;s not about the insults, single moms, reduced hours, obamacare, steelmakers, mechanics, cost of living, student loans, bickering school children, no slogans, principles, repeal words of obamacare, flat tax, no IRS, small business explosion, oppotunity, over and over I beat Trump, I will beat Trump.
Trump: I have head it again and again, I won 10, he won 3-4, I'm 0.5 million voter more, he is beaten very very badly.
Rubio: no doubt he did great, 2/3 voted against Trump, conservative movement, lincoln, reagan, planned parenthood, nuclear triad, principles, america is great, free enterprize.
Trump: Nice words, CNN poll, I'm at 49 he is at 15, i beat Clinton on many polls, excuse me i;m talking, i beat hillary in the polls, in ohio, i have not started on hillary yet.
Kasich: This is about process, i beat hillary by more, the democrats tell me i take the crossover votes, i'm not getting in this scrum, i'm the adult on the stage, Romney is great but he's not my strategy, balanced budget, wage rises, jobs, ohio, debt, formula, no job training, in 100 days my plan, congress. Why did you wrote me off, you wrote me off, i finished second in Virginia, this is my turf, I will win Ohio, people will hear my message, i will bring people together, economic growth, jobs security, message, bringing people, galloping in, neighbourhoods and families.
Economy now. Question to Rubio how many jobs did you create?
Rubio: Trump is a con artist, trump clothing made in mexico, the private sector makes jobs, the public sector makes regulations, business, Marco rubio.com, obamacare.
Trump: This little guy has lied so much about my record, my sister called, i started with a million dollars, low debt, my finances are great, I will bring my clothes, they devalue their currencies, it's impossible to brink clothes back, devaluation, TPP is a disaster, Rubio is in favour, Obama wants it, devaluation.
Rubio: he's not going to do it, if you challenge him he's attacking him on a little guy.
Trump: I know about the economy.
Rubio Trump steaks,
Trump: Romney, the buildings.
Trump: don't worry little marco. Rubio: No problem big don.
Question on Trump. How do you cover the 10 trillion hole on your budget
Trump: education department, common core, EPA, IRS, Kudlow said.
Fox brings up the numbers.
Trump: the pharmaceutical companies, cost a lot of money, hunders of billions.
Fox brings up the numbers.
Trump: we will save a lot of money through negotiations.
Question on Cruz, who will pay for taxes if you abolish the IRS.
Cruz: every american can fill in their taxes on a post card, simplification, abolish the IRS, there will still be a treasury to receive the post cards. I have a detailed plan, I understand those who want Trump, Trump is part of the corruption, you don't stop it by voting Trump, stand with the american people.
Trump: I have supported a lot of people, i wasn't a politician, i go a long with everybody, no one gets along, we need to make things done.
Kasich: I never said i will raise the minimum wage, only in ohio, i balanced the budget, i spend 10 years, common sence regulations, jobs exploding, ohio, i fought the establishment and won, everything in the government, i fought a republican president, restore economic growth cut taxes.
Cruz: The choice is clear, look at the record, if you write a check that, Trump supporter Carter, Kerry, Reid and Pelosi, Trump funded the gang of 8, who is best to beat Hillary, Trump funded Hillary 10 times to her presidential campaign, why did you write checks to Hillary.
Trump: It was for business, made many deals, in 2008 I supporter Hillary, I also supporter Reagan and Bush, let me tell you something Ted I'm the last person.
Megan: Hi Trump Trump Hi Megan how are you doing.
Megan: a secret tape from the NYT on Buzzfeed.
Trump: Buzzfeed was wrong, i did had a meeting, those were off the record, i will honour that, there will always some pull and dug, some flexibility and negotiation, you start from hight to get something, i will build the wall and mexico is going to pay, the wall is 50ft it could be 45ft, there is always give a take, you need to agree.
Rubio: Off the record is about Trump, i want to solve this issue, it's Reds fault, we do need to deal with it, illegal immigration under control, no executive order.
Trump: I know what Rubio says, I'm much stronger on immigration, I thought it was ok, I disagree on the scale, I have respect on off the record with reporters.
Kasich is winning, only adult in the room. Cruz is not far behind. Trump and Rubio battling for last place, the little marco big don exchange shows it.
Trump is way too moderate now on TV clearly he has the GE on his mind put I think it's way to early for that, and Fox showing the gaping holes in his budget is I think something that they are going to do again. So far Fox has been hostile to Rubio and to Trump at a lesser extent.
Trump: I;m changing, we need highly skilled people, in silicon valley, they go to harvard and get shoved out, he have to keep them, I'm not releasing, i;m changing, I'm not playing on any peoples fantasies, the border is a swiss cheese.
Cruz: The abuse of the h1b abuse, i will impose 180 days moratorium, forcing them to train them, Trump's hotel , foreign workers, how many people have worked as bartenders, Donald hired 17, the NYT tape, Trump will not build the wall, release the tape, Donald,s record is using foreigners.
Trump: 97% i have hired are americasn, the season is 5 months, people don't want a short term work, all legally, when we can we hire them, they don't want very short part time jobs.
Rubio: 300 applied, h1b visas are captive, you say you are fighting for the american people but you make them overseas.
Trump: it's a very hot area, other hotels do it, i take advantage of the law.
Cruz: Release the tape, the tape will prove your innocence.
Rubio: ISIS, defeat ISIS, deny them space, Al Qaeda, Iraq, Syria, Libya, defeat them on the ground, by only sunni arabs, and special forces, egypt, europe.
Kasich: I served on the defence commitee, i worked with Rumsfield, Hillary wanted to push Gaddafi, ISIS, Libya, full invasion of Libya, 1991 Saddam, Saddam, invade both Iraq and Syria, cool calm and come home.
Trump: They wont refuse my orders, they chopping of heads, and we are talking about waterboarding, Cruz had a hard time, waterboarding is fine, those are animals, choping of heads, waterboarding and tougher, i'm a leader, if i say it they are going to do it, if the 9/11, the families knew before they left, 9/11.
Cruz: Yelling and cursing is not tough, Reagan, tax cuts, economy, jobs, trillion, won the cold war, i will do the same, rebuild the military, if they join Isis, death warrant. I spent with law enforcement, congress acted, evidence, snowden, prosecuted, snowden is a traitor, snowden, behaviour, russia, china, snowden, no rash , wait for facts.
Trump: Richard Hoss, General Cain, Colenel Jacobs, snowden was a spy, i would get the best people and do the right thing.
Kasich: I got 55% of 100 foreign policy experts, reagan, economy, reagan, i knew reagan.
Trump: Afghanistan is next to Pakistan, i was always against it, howard stern, may be may be, afghanistan i corrected it, you are right, I heard the numbers was low, then it got high, building safe zones, but it was the first time, i went back and study it and I changed my tune, i have a very strong core, you have to be flexible, first you if you say it's ok and then you find it's not ok, the number had changed, that was new, show flexibility, if you are wrong should you stay wrong.
Kasich: politicians tell them what they want to hear, ohio, i said it and i done it, tax cuts, surplus, they want change, the changhe doesn't happen, outsiders never do it, choose an insider.
Rubio: flexibility is one thing, Trump University, video, the best instructor, they borrowed money, they got nothing.
Trump: I don't settle cases, 98% approval rating A from bussiness, i dont get sued very often.
Rubio: It was D-, go to my website.
Trump: It was a D and when they got the information was an A.
Megan it was a D-, Trump University was is a class action suit, they said it was a scam, it was.
Now this is a debate between Trump and Megan Kelly.
Cruz: is this the debate for the GE, stagnant wages, constitutional rights, Trump will be on trial, Hillary will point out that he, count to ten donald, the stakes are too high, Trump will be a disater, come join us, we have beaten Trump 5 times, stand with us, broad constitution, freedom.
Trump: i don't believe politicians, he gets 15% that means 85% didn't vote for him, i'm at 49 he is at 15, 85% he have 5, I won 10 states, everybody knows Trump won S.Tuesday, how does he say 5 is better than 10.
Cruz: Trump lives by the poll, the cnn poll Trump loses by 8 points, I beat hillary on that poll, the stakes are too high.
Kasich: the rich get richer, the sons are living in the basement, no jobs, solve problems in washington, fix things, do things on their community, somebody, bring america back, lets stop fighting.
This is getting worse and worse for Trump. I can't see how he survives this debate. His campaign is definitely dead after this, Trump University on top of the Fox videos on top of immigration on top of the Fox slides on the budget, that's too much, he is finished.
Boris Johnson said the British Museum had more visitors than Belgium last year, but that he is a "lover" of Brussels.
A leading advocate of Brexit, Mr Johnson said the capital of Belgium is a city he admires but pointed out that affection does not stretch to the "institutions" located there.
Rubio: I've talked about it, Flint, systemic government, not politicize it, the governor is a good guy, it's not a partisan issue, work together to solve it, help local communities.
Kasich: First of all, Ohio, union, business leaders, CEO environment, buy out plan, Cleveland, schools, if i'm president, 4 buckets, fixing schools, local level, school board level, school choice, come together, adults, politics aside, lifting the schools, tremendous results.
Cruz: Detroit is magnificent, destroyed by lefties, ww2, won ww2, 1960's silicon valley, highest per capita income,lefty destruction, crime wave, people left, crime rampant, the destruction by lefties. You bring factories back by repealing obamacare, EPA, tax plan, border, death tax, payroll tax, 16% flat tax, all exporta are tax free, all imports pay 16% tax, steel, compete.
Kasich: First of all, i'm a man of faith, does, donts, love my enemy care my neighbor, cake is another issue, i want traditional marriage, dont sue photographers, respect one another, dont go to court, death of common sense, we have to think, come together, respect, love, that's what people like.
Cruz: Adoption on state level, marriage to states, 2 centuries, 5 unelected judges, illegal decision, religious liberty, no compromise, constitution, i will never compromise, religious liberty, defending the 10 commandments, defeated, defended memorial.
Trump: I have nothing to say, i was always in favour of the states, most people would like that.
Trump: i defend the second amendment, 130 people killed, if we had guns, bullets 130 people killed, 2nd amendment, i don't support the ban.
Cruz: I don't support banning popular firearms, you can't say that, supreme court compromise, Reid and Schummer, Trump, left wing justice, appoint principal constitutionalist.
Trump: all talk no action, Cruz pushed Roperts, he didn't repeal obamacare, he supported Roberts.
Cruz: Donald has a tenuous relationship on the truth, breath Donald. Rubio: when you've done with the yoga, he is very flexible.
Cruz: when you supported Carter you will not care, you cannot care about supreme court, hillary.
Rubio: First of all, Donald is not serious, military, commanders, that is not true, our future depends on it, despite the hardship, hunders of millions of clients, strong leadership, i cant be hillary, intellectual interest.
Trump: Rubio is not a leader, frankly they will do as i tell me, dangerous place, taking care of our place, campaign contributions, i will be a great leader, polls, Trump is the best.
Rubio: the world is complicated, lunatic, n.korea, china, putin, middle east, iran, jihadists, seriousness, give us a detailed answer.
Trump: Putin said it about me, would it be nice to get along with other countries, and russia to help us with isis.
Cruz: Send carrier group, n.korea sanctions, deal by clintons, nuclear weapons, lunatic with nuclear weapons, s.china sea, missile defence, space based missile defence, space based, china, n.korea.
Kasich: I'm not biting, look, arm the ukraine, finland and sweden, china, cyber command, attack china, egytians, jordan, saudis, allies, bring them closer, turkey, bring them to the west, semi trip around the world.
Kasich: i have a record, i did it, ohio, ohio, no one left behind, minorities, take the formula, fix the problems, fix the communities, spirit of america.
Rubio: this election is about opportunities, 21century, free children, 21 century, vote for me, marcorubio.com
Cruz: sailor, marine, dad, daughter, combat, it is wrong and immoral, police firefighters, i will have your back.
Trump: i;m going to bring jobs back, we will fix things, take care of vets, you are going to be very proud with me.
Cruz and Kasich are the clear victors. Rubio was really invisible, he didn't gain anything, he didn't leave a mark.
The moment of the night is the Megan Kelly vs Trump on Trump University, that was the final nail on a very bad night for Trump. Trump might have survived one bad segment but as i said, his campaign is definitely dead after this, Trump University on top of the Fox videos on top of immigration on top of the Fox slides on the budget, that's too much, he is finished.
Kasich making love and peace domestically, war and even more war on foreign policy. Cruz is pitching for all Trump voters with a 16% tax on imports and a strong immigration pitch.
Final marks.
Cruz 7/10 Kasich 6/10 Rubio 4/10 Trump 0/10
If Trump survives this, which I doubt it, it will go to the convention, this debate was too harsh for him to expand his support, Romney will be the nominee and Hillary will be the president.
If Trump doesn't survive this, which I think is very very likely, then Cruz will be the nominee and Hillary will be the president.
With every candidate Hillary wins the presidency now.
Of course the EU will give us easy access to the single market! They must want to export their BMWs to us. Of course the US and China will make free-trade deals with Britain as they have with the EU! This deeply un-Burkean kind of thinking, based on untestable claims about a future in which everyone behaves rationally, is more usually found on the left. Brexiters have seen the future and it works.
Of course the EU will give us easy access to the single market! They must want to export their BMWs to us. Of course the US and China will make free-trade deals with Britain as they have with the EU! This deeply un-Burkean kind of thinking, based on untestable claims about a future in which everyone behaves rationally, is more usually found on the left. Brexiters have seen the future and it works.
Of course the EU will give us easy access to the single market! They must want to export their BMWs to us. Of course the US and China will make free-trade deals with Britain as they have with the EU! This deeply un-Burkean kind of thinking, based on untestable claims about a future in which everyone behaves rationally, is more usually found on the left. Brexiters have seen the future and it works.
Of course the EU will give us easy access to the single market! They must want to export their BMWs to us. Of course the US and China will make free-trade deals with Britain as they have with the EU! This deeply un-Burkean kind of thinking, based on untestable claims about a future in which everyone behaves rationally, is more usually found on the left. Brexiters have seen the future and it works.
Professor of European Studies at Oxford University is Pro-EU shocker.
Nice ball play there.......
You have to expect the Mandy Rice-Davies response if you are going to quote people with vested interests.
Everything said about the future is by definition untestable, they are all just opinions, so talking about "untestable claims" is fatuous. Both sides are putting forward what they think will happen, some bits of both are plausible, most parts of both are wishful thinking.
Seriously if all debates are done like the last 2 Fox debates there will be a shortage of people running in elections.
Because most people running for public office are liars or haven't got a clue of the issues in detail.
If they make their debate statement and then the moderator points to the facts on the big screen or plays past video statements that contradict their initial statement then the politician will be crushed, participants in debates rely on people having goldfish memories to work their way out of lying. Playing a video tape live just after the answer doesn't give the audience enough time to forget before being exposed to the lie.
With that done, I have to say Fox News knows how to conduct aggressive debates to destroy the integrity of the participants and to expose them for what they are. Lets hope the BBC and ITV follow their lead.
Of course the EU will give us easy access to the single market! They must want to export their BMWs to us. Of course the US and China will make free-trade deals with Britain as they have with the EU! This deeply un-Burkean kind of thinking, based on untestable claims about a future in which everyone behaves rationally, is more usually found on the left. Brexiters have seen the future and it works.
Speedy - I know you've watched all of these debates, but was this any different to what's gone before? I'm sure I read that Trump was finished after the last debate and the one before and the one where he didn't turn up.
The more the establishment go for Trump the more entrenched his supporters will become.
The moment of the night is the Megan Kelly vs Trump on Trump University, that was the final nail on a very bad night for Trump.
It makes for brutal reading:
KELLY: Let me just set the record, and then you guys can have at it. There was Trump University, which was a business that you started, and it was marketed...
TRUMP: ... Small business...
KELLY: ... to many people, and now there is a class-action of over 5,000 plaintiffs against you, Mr. Trump...
TRUMP: ... Right...
KELLY: ... And, it involves veterans, and it involves teachers, and it involves so-called little guys, working class, and lower- working class and middle class who say that they were fleeced, who say that it was as scam. The class has been certified, and in that case you counter-sued the lead plaintiff alleging that you were being defamed.
With that done, I have to say Fox News knows how to conduct aggressive debates to destroy the integrity of the participants and to expose them for what they are. Lets hope the BBC and ITV follow their lead. Goodnight.
It doesn't seem to work over here that much, even when people know politicians are lying through their teeth, they just shrug as if they didn't expect any better.
Cameron says "10s of thousands, no ifs, no buts" and the TV shows border fences being attacked by battering rams and net immigration growing by 8-10% per year, no noticeable effect.
You could tell Blair was lying by the way his lips started moving, and yet he was immensely popular for a long number of years
Farage talks a load of balls and yet the kippers are stuck around 15% of the vote with no sign of moving.
Being economical with the truth, or even being completely unfamiliar with it doesn't seem to be a problem, being crap is the problem (see Corbyn, Miliband etc.)
LOSERS ....The Republican Party: The first hour of the debate was an absolute disaster for Republicans hoping to rebrand their party heading into the 2016 general election. It looked more like a high school cafeteria food fight than an even semi-serious conversation about issues.
Assuming Trump is the nominee — and he has the most obvious path — then this debate will provide Democrats with roughly 100 minutes’ worth of raw footage of Rubio and Cruz savaging the real estate mogul that they can use in negative ads this fall. A lose-lose for the GOP.
I couldn't find anyone else pointing this out but Hugo Swire is actually the MP for East Devon not East Dorset, and the strong Ind performance was there also.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Du1346K0-AE
What does Remain offer to future generations, why don't you outline right now the benefits for them, and please don't include how form filling and retiring to the sun will be easier for you personally.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_to_Norway
Rumours of a Carson endorsement about...
"Newcastle players expect Steve McClaren to be sacked if club lose to Bournemouth amid dressing room unrest."
For the avoidance of doubt, I do not work for or have any connection with the Daily Mail!
Biden to be Dem nom at that point (Hillary will have stomped Sanders in Illinois, NC etc)
I've just had a fiver on Biden at 50/1 with sportingbet, he's best-priced at 33/1 elsewhere.
Be LEAVE!
Trump might even run as a spoiler !
Wouldn't even be close.
I'm sure the Democrats have Plan B ready - rules changes, plans for preferred candidates, changes in qualifying etc.
Of course with Hillary now racking up the delegates the Dems have to have a fallback if she is forced to withdraw, almost certainly Biden-Warren
Pagliano took the 5th repeatedly when subpoenaed by the Benghazi committee. I don't blame him for doing so by the way.
The FBI giving immunity in exchange for testimony shows a couple of things -
1. You don't give immunity to someone unless they will have to testify.
2. You don't give immunity unless they have something important to say.
It also means the FBI investigation is much further along than we thought. They have done fishing and are at an advanced stage in putting a case together.
The immunity grant suggests to me that this indictment recommendation is now more likely than not to happen. 51% or 99% have no idea. But this is serious for Hillary.
There's no dirt in Trump's tax returns. The worst you can expect is that his charitable donations are not what he claims.
God I hope and pray that this is the last GOP debate for the year, I'm worn out by all this, one reason why I want Trump to rap the nomination quickly is that I can't stand this freaking schedule.
She is already way underwater on 'honest and trustworthy' and this will kill her campaign.
Loretta Lynch said yesterday that the White House has not been kept informed of the progress of the investigation, and that FBI Director Comey is getting daily updates.
At some point a decision has to be made about the FBI recommendation. Loretta Lynch - unlike the race baiter Holder, can be relied on to do the right thing.
After all she's the one behind the FIFA charges, an investigation she led for 3 years.
The crowd is shouting "Trump Trump Trump".
Trump: He was a failed candidate, he failed miserably, he was an embarrasement, Trade is killing us, china and mexico are killing us, free trade ok but not when they are killing us, china 500 billion, mexico 58 million, japan, we lose money, re-do trade deals, make great trade deals.
Question on KKK.
Trump: I disavow the KKK and David Duke, I disavow, why on noone looked on my twitter account.
Question on Rubio why he is personally attacking Trump.
Rubio: Trump has attacked everyone, Trump's deserved to be attacked like that, lets have a policy debate, cryz strategy, healthcare, the media, the issues, lets start.
Trump: I also have called him a lighweight, i take it back, he hit my hands are my hands small, is my penis small.
Trump: I have head it again and again, I won 10, he won 3-4, I'm 0.5 million voter more, he is beaten very very badly.
Rubio: no doubt he did great, 2/3 voted against Trump, conservative movement, lincoln, reagan, planned parenthood, nuclear triad, principles, america is great, free enterprize.
Trump: Nice words, CNN poll, I'm at 49 he is at 15, i beat Clinton on many polls, excuse me i;m talking, i beat hillary in the polls, in ohio, i have not started on hillary yet.
Kasich: This is about process, i beat hillary by more, the democrats tell me i take the crossover votes, i'm not getting in this scrum, i'm the adult on the stage, Romney is great but he's not my strategy, balanced budget, wage rises, jobs, ohio, debt, formula, no job training, in 100 days my plan, congress.
Why did you wrote me off, you wrote me off, i finished second in Virginia, this is my turf, I will win Ohio, people will hear my message, i will bring people together, economic growth, jobs security, message, bringing people, galloping in, neighbourhoods and families.
Question to Rubio how many jobs did you create?
Rubio: Trump is a con artist, trump clothing made in mexico, the private sector makes jobs, the public sector makes regulations, business, Marco rubio.com, obamacare.
Trump: This little guy has lied so much about my record, my sister called, i started with a million dollars, low debt, my finances are great, I will bring my clothes, they devalue their currencies, it's impossible to brink clothes back, devaluation, TPP is a disaster, Rubio is in favour, Obama wants it, devaluation.
Rubio: he's not going to do it, if you challenge him he's attacking him on a little guy.
Trump: I know about the economy.
Rubio Trump steaks,
Trump: Romney, the buildings.
Trump: don't worry little marco.
Rubio: No problem big don.
How do you cover the 10 trillion hole on your budget
Trump: education department, common core, EPA, IRS, Kudlow said.
Fox brings up the numbers.
Trump: the pharmaceutical companies, cost a lot of money, hunders of billions.
Fox brings up the numbers.
Trump: we will save a lot of money through negotiations.
Question on Cruz, who will pay for taxes if you abolish the IRS.
Cruz: every american can fill in their taxes on a post card, simplification, abolish the IRS, there will still be a treasury to receive the post cards. I have a detailed plan, I understand those who want Trump, Trump is part of the corruption, you don't stop it by voting Trump, stand with the american people.
Trump: I have supported a lot of people, i wasn't a politician, i go a long with everybody, no one gets along, we need to make things done.
Kasich: I never said i will raise the minimum wage, only in ohio, i balanced the budget, i spend 10 years, common sence regulations, jobs exploding, ohio, i fought the establishment and won, everything in the government, i fought a republican president, restore economic growth cut taxes.
WATCH @realDonaldTrump defend his hands after @marcorubio called them “small.” #GOPDebate
https://t.co/5OVrh8mauQ
Cruz: The choice is clear, look at the record, if you write a check that, Trump supporter Carter, Kerry, Reid and Pelosi, Trump funded the gang of 8, who is best to beat Hillary, Trump funded Hillary 10 times to her presidential campaign, why did you write checks to Hillary.
Trump: It was for business, made many deals, in 2008 I supporter Hillary, I also supporter Reagan and Bush, let me tell you something Ted I'm the last person.
Megan: Hi Trump
Trump Hi Megan how are you doing.
Megan: a secret tape from the NYT on Buzzfeed.
Trump: Buzzfeed was wrong, i did had a meeting, those were off the record, i will honour that, there will always some pull and dug, some flexibility and negotiation, you start from hight to get something, i will build the wall and mexico is going to pay, the wall is 50ft it could be 45ft, there is always give a take, you need to agree.
Trump: I know what Rubio says, I'm much stronger on immigration, I thought it was ok, I disagree on the scale, I have respect on off the record with reporters.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Arpaio
Kasich is winning, only adult in the room.
Cruz is not far behind.
Trump and Rubio battling for last place, the little marco big don exchange shows it.
Trump is way too moderate now on TV clearly he has the GE on his mind put I think it's way to early for that, and Fox showing the gaping holes in his budget is I think something that they are going to do again.
So far Fox has been hostile to Rubio and to Trump at a lesser extent.
Trump: I;m changing, we need highly skilled people, in silicon valley, they go to harvard and get shoved out, he have to keep them, I'm not releasing, i;m changing, I'm not playing on any peoples fantasies, the border is a swiss cheese.
Cruz: The abuse of the h1b abuse, i will impose 180 days moratorium, forcing them to train them, Trump's hotel , foreign workers, how many people have worked as bartenders, Donald hired 17, the NYT tape, Trump will not build the wall, release the tape, Donald,s record is using foreigners.
Trump: 97% i have hired are americasn, the season is 5 months, people don't want a short term work, all legally, when we can we hire them, they don't want very short part time jobs.
Rubio: 300 applied, h1b visas are captive, you say you are fighting for the american people but you make them overseas.
Trump: it's a very hot area, other hotels do it, i take advantage of the law.
Cruz: Release the tape, the tape will prove your innocence.
Trump: I gave my answer.
Rubio: ISIS, defeat ISIS, deny them space, Al Qaeda, Iraq, Syria, Libya, defeat them on the ground, by only sunni arabs, and special forces, egypt, europe.
Kasich: I served on the defence commitee, i worked with Rumsfield, Hillary wanted to push Gaddafi, ISIS, Libya, full invasion of Libya, 1991 Saddam, Saddam, invade both Iraq and Syria, cool calm and come home.
Trump: They wont refuse my orders, they chopping of heads, and we are talking about waterboarding, Cruz had a hard time, waterboarding is fine, those are animals, choping of heads, waterboarding and tougher, i'm a leader, if i say it they are going to do it, if the 9/11, the families knew before they left, 9/11.
Cruz: Yelling and cursing is not tough, Reagan, tax cuts, economy, jobs, trillion, won the cold war, i will do the same, rebuild the military, if they join Isis, death warrant.
I spent with law enforcement, congress acted, evidence, snowden, prosecuted, snowden is a traitor, snowden, behaviour, russia, china, snowden, no rash , wait for facts.
Trump: Richard Hoss, General Cain, Colenel Jacobs, snowden was a spy, i would get the best people and do the right thing.
Kasich: I got 55% of 100 foreign policy experts, reagan, economy, reagan, i knew reagan.
Trump didn't survive the Fox debate, his immigration position fell to pieces, that NYT tape is like the watergate tapes.
Cruz is the obvious victor here.
Rubio and Kasich are getting invisible.
Tell it like it is question.
Oh no the video tape on Trump.
Trump's dead.
Trump: Afghanistan is next to Pakistan, i was always against it, howard stern, may be may be, afghanistan i corrected it, you are right, I heard the numbers was low, then it got high, building safe zones, but it was the first time, i went back and study it and I changed my tune, i have a very strong core, you have to be flexible, first you if you say it's ok and then you find it's not ok, the number had changed, that was new, show flexibility, if you are wrong should you stay wrong.
Rubio: flexibility is one thing, Trump University, video, the best instructor, they borrowed money, they got nothing.
Trump: I don't settle cases, 98% approval rating A from bussiness, i dont get sued very often.
Rubio: It was D-, go to my website.
Trump: It was a D and when they got the information was an A.
Megan it was a D-, Trump University was is a class action suit, they said it was a scam, it was.
Now this is a debate between Trump and Megan Kelly.
This is the end of Trump.
Trump: i don't believe politicians, he gets 15% that means 85% didn't vote for him, i'm at 49 he is at 15, 85% he have 5, I won 10 states, everybody knows Trump won S.Tuesday, how does he say 5 is better than 10.
Cruz: Trump lives by the poll, the cnn poll Trump loses by 8 points, I beat hillary on that poll, the stakes are too high.
Trump: 2 recent polls i;m beating hillary.
This is getting worse and worse for Trump.
I can't see how he survives this debate.
His campaign is definitely dead after this, Trump University on top of the Fox videos on top of immigration on top of the Fox slides on the budget, that's too much, he is finished.
Cruz and Kasich are picking up the pieces.
Facebook questions.
Rubio: I've talked about it, Flint, systemic government, not politicize it, the governor is a good guy, it's not a partisan issue, work together to solve it, help local communities.
Kasich: First of all, Ohio, union, business leaders, CEO environment, buy out plan, Cleveland, schools, if i'm president, 4 buckets, fixing schools, local level, school board level, school choice, come together, adults, politics aside, lifting the schools, tremendous results.
Cruz: Detroit is magnificent, destroyed by lefties, ww2, won ww2, 1960's silicon valley, highest per capita income,lefty destruction, crime wave, people left, crime rampant, the destruction by lefties.
You bring factories back by repealing obamacare, EPA, tax plan, border, death tax, payroll tax, 16% flat tax, all exporta are tax free, all imports pay 16% tax, steel, compete.
Kasich: First of all, i'm a man of faith, does, donts, love my enemy care my neighbor, cake is another issue, i want traditional marriage, dont sue photographers, respect one another, dont go to court, death of common sense, we have to think, come together, respect, love, that's what people like.
Cruz: Adoption on state level, marriage to states, 2 centuries, 5 unelected judges, illegal decision, religious liberty, no compromise, constitution, i will never compromise, religious liberty, defending the 10 commandments, defeated, defended memorial.
Trump: I have nothing to say, i was always in favour of the states, most people would like that.
Cruz: I don't support banning popular firearms, you can't say that, supreme court compromise, Reid and Schummer, Trump, left wing justice, appoint principal constitutionalist.
Trump: all talk no action, Cruz pushed Roperts, he didn't repeal obamacare, he supported Roberts.
Cruz: Donald has a tenuous relationship on the truth, breath Donald.
Rubio: when you've done with the yoga, he is very flexible.
Cruz: when you supported Carter you will not care, you cannot care about supreme court, hillary.
Trump still sinking.
Cruz is now turning protectionist.
Kasich still going ahead with his love and care message.
Rubio is nowhere.
Foreign policy
Rubio: First of all, Donald is not serious, military, commanders, that is not true, our future depends on it, despite the hardship, hunders of millions of clients, strong leadership, i cant be hillary, intellectual interest.
Trump: Rubio is not a leader, frankly they will do as i tell me, dangerous place, taking care of our place, campaign contributions, i will be a great leader, polls, Trump is the best.
Rubio: the world is complicated, lunatic, n.korea, china, putin, middle east, iran, jihadists, seriousness, give us a detailed answer.
Trump: Putin said it about me, would it be nice to get along with other countries, and russia to help us with isis.
Cruz: Send carrier group, n.korea sanctions, deal by clintons, nuclear weapons, lunatic with nuclear weapons, s.china sea, missile defence, space based missile defence, space based, china, n.korea.
Kasich: I'm not biting, look, arm the ukraine, finland and sweden, china, cyber command, attack china, egytians, jordan, saudis, allies, bring them closer, turkey, bring them to the west, semi trip around the world.
Trump is still in the abyss but he is pulling Rubio down with him.
Kasich is on his weakest on foreign policy, for all the love and care on domestic policy, he is more aggressive than Bush W. on foreign policy.
Cruz is trying to strike a balance between the belligerence of Kasich and Trump.
Pledged statement.
Rubio: yes, I will support Trump, one of them is a socialist, the other one is a bengazi.
Cruz: Yes, i gave my world, do what i say, we won Texas, the people who know me, obamacare, amnesty, texas.
Kasich: yes, I will be the nominee, the little engine that can, working, travelling the arena, special circle, i will support him.
Trump: even if it's not me? millions and millions have come to the gop, the democrats are losing, i will give them some credit, yes i will.
Kasich: i have a record, i did it, ohio, ohio, no one left behind, minorities, take the formula, fix the problems, fix the communities, spirit of america.
Rubio: this election is about opportunities, 21century, free children, 21 century, vote for me, marcorubio.com
Cruz: sailor, marine, dad, daughter, combat, it is wrong and immoral, police firefighters, i will have your back.
Trump: i;m going to bring jobs back, we will fix things, take care of vets, you are going to be very proud with me.
Trump is finished.
No one can survive that.
Cruz and Kasich are the clear victors.
Rubio was really invisible, he didn't gain anything, he didn't leave a mark.
The moment of the night is the Megan Kelly vs Trump on Trump University, that was the final nail on a very bad night for Trump.
Trump might have survived one bad segment but as i said, his campaign is definitely dead after this, Trump University on top of the Fox videos on top of immigration on top of the Fox slides on the budget, that's too much, he is finished.
Kasich making love and peace domestically, war and even more war on foreign policy.
Cruz is pitching for all Trump voters with a 16% tax on imports and a strong immigration pitch.
Final marks.
Cruz 7/10
Kasich 6/10
Rubio 4/10
Trump 0/10
If Trump survives this, which I doubt it, it will go to the convention, this debate was too harsh for him to expand his support, Romney will be the nominee and Hillary will be the president.
If Trump doesn't survive this, which I think is very very likely, then Cruz will be the nominee and Hillary will be the president.
With every candidate Hillary wins the presidency now.
Of course the EU will give us easy access to the single market! They must want to export their BMWs to us. Of course the US and China will make free-trade deals with Britain as they have with the EU! This deeply un-Burkean kind of thinking, based on untestable claims about a future in which everyone behaves rationally, is more usually found on the left. Brexiters have seen the future and it works.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/03/a-conservative-case-for-voting-in/
Everything said about the future is by definition untestable, they are all just opinions, so talking about "untestable claims" is fatuous. Both sides are putting forward what they think will happen, some bits of both are plausible, most parts of both are wishful thinking.
Because most people running for public office are liars or haven't got a clue of the issues in detail.
If they make their debate statement and then the moderator points to the facts on the big screen or plays past video statements that contradict their initial statement then the politician will be crushed, participants in debates rely on people having goldfish memories to work their way out of lying.
Playing a video tape live just after the answer doesn't give the audience enough time to forget before being exposed to the lie.
With that done, I have to say Fox News knows how to conduct aggressive debates to destroy the integrity of the participants and to expose them for what they are.
Lets hope the BBC and ITV follow their lead.
Goodnight.
Surely a nice bit of chaos in Europe would be lucrative for a Professor of European Studies?
Perhaps he's better informed about Europe than many, if not most?
The more the establishment go for Trump the more entrenched his supporters will become.
KELLY: Let me just set the record, and then you guys can have at it. There was Trump University, which was a business that you started, and it was marketed...
TRUMP: ... Small business...
KELLY: ... to many people, and now there is a class-action of over 5,000 plaintiffs against you, Mr. Trump...
TRUMP: ... Right...
KELLY: ... And, it involves veterans, and it involves teachers, and it involves so-called little guys, working class, and lower- working class and middle class who say that they were fleeced, who say that it was as scam. The class has been certified, and in that case you counter-sued the lead plaintiff alleging that you were being defamed.
That case was thrown out against her...
.....and it goes downhill from there......
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/03/the-fox-news-gop-debate-transcript-annotated/
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-university-megyn-kelly_us_56d8fd34e4b0ffe6f8e8d270
Cameron says "10s of thousands, no ifs, no buts" and the TV shows border fences being attacked by battering rams and net immigration growing by 8-10% per year, no noticeable effect.
You could tell Blair was lying by the way his lips started moving, and yet he was immensely popular for a long number of years
Farage talks a load of balls and yet the kippers are stuck around 15% of the vote with no sign of moving.
Being economical with the truth, or even being completely unfamiliar with it doesn't seem to be a problem, being crap is the problem (see Corbyn, Miliband etc.)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/03/winners-and-losers-from-the-11th-republican-presidential-debate/?tid=pm_politics_pop_b
LOSERS
....The Republican Party: The first hour of the debate was an absolute disaster for Republicans hoping to rebrand their party heading into the 2016 general election. It looked more like a high school cafeteria food fight than an even semi-serious conversation about issues.
Assuming Trump is the nominee — and he has the most obvious path — then this debate will provide Democrats with roughly 100 minutes’ worth of raw footage of Rubio and Cruz savaging the real estate mogul that they can use in negative ads this fall. A lose-lose for the GOP.