politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How opinion on the referendum is going in first week after

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Scott_P said:

@ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

Except the QT debate won't be a head to head.

It'll be like the GE QT - Cameron on stage on his own taking questions and then someone from Leave doing the same separately.

There's one final event a few days before the vote at Wembley arena that could well be a head to head.

y

I know - but Cameron won't do that one.

We can't know for sure - but let's wait and see!

Well I've just done the morning thread on the assumption Cameron will do the debate.

He would be acting out of character and against his instinct. Also who has agreed to these debates.

He was eventually bounced into the GE debates.

Only the one with seven. He did not do any other head to heads

But the election involved several sides/parties.

This referendum only has two sides, Remain and Leave.

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

Scott_P said:

@ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

Except the QT debate won't be a head to head.

It'll be like the GE QT - Cameron on stage on his own taking questions and then someone from Leave doing the same separately.

There's one final event a few days before the vote at Wembley arena that could well be a head to head.

ISTR the BBC said that would have 3 reps per side.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The morning thread is for PB classicists

AV? Be still my beating heart!

That was last week. Alas tomorrow is an epic today for me, so only one thread from me.

I've decided to do an AV thread on the anniversary of the AV referendum.

Last week was the PB equivalent of a virtuous lady flashing a bit of ankle at us.

flightpath01 said:

another_richard said:

flightpath01 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

Mortimer said:

surbiton said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

surbiton said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

Sean_F said:

And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

It was a manifesto commitment.

By the end of 2017. Why the rush to get a shit deal?

The Economy. It is coming to a standstill.

I thought you said that was happening 12 months ago? Is this an annual prediction like a stopped clock eventually getting the right time.

Do you live in the real world ? Go and have a look at Manufacturing.

Yep - and go and have a look at employment levels.

Domestic consumer economy is incredibly strong at the moment. Strongest I've known since having a consumer facing business (founded '07).

A trillion pounds of government borrowing does tend to help domestic consumption.

As does the household savings rate being at its lowest ever level.

This is what Osborne announced in his 2010 Budget:

" Our policy is to raise from the ruins of an economy built on debt a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export. "

This is such a broken, repetitive and downright ignorant line.

The government deficit was priced into the economy many years ago so merely having a deficit does not boost consumption. You need to look at the delta (the change) in government spending. The change has been the government deficit coming down each year so that is a negative on growth not a boost.

The economies growth is happening despite government spending levels not because of it.

'another richards' wording is thick. We do not have a trillion borrowing we have about what 70bn borrowing and falling. We have a govt cutting its spending.

Perhaps you'd like to tell us how much the government has borrowed during the last decade.

The govt has been cutting its spending for the last 6 years and has raised VAT for instance to 20%.

Moses_ said:

Clinton defeats Sanders in South Carolina Democratic primary – campaign live

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/feb/27/south-carolina-democratic-primary-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-campaign-live?CMP=twt_gu

Moses_ said:

Moses_ said:

Clinton defeats Sanders in South Carolina Democratic primary – campaign live

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/feb/27/south-carolina-democratic-primary-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-campaign-live?CMP=twt_gu

Bernie Sanders, currently in the air on his way from Texas to Minnesota, has issued a statement on the result in South Carolina. Despite the defeat, he says: “This campaign is just beginning”.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The morning thread is for PB classicists

AV? Be still my beating heart!

That was last week. Alas tomorrow is an epic today for me, so only one thread from me.

I've decided to do an AV thread on the anniversary of the AV referendum.

Last week was the PB equivalent of a virtuous lady flashing a bit of ankle at us.

Well do you want it quick, or do you want it good?

Beggars can't be choosers.
There's no such thing as bad AV.

The morning thread features, inter alia.

1) Orgies
2) Cannibalism
3) Julius Caesar
4) Monty Python

Surely that must excite you?

another_richard said:

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

A trillion pounds of government borrowing does tend to help domestic consumption.

As does the household savings rate being at its lowest ever level.

This is what Osborne announced in his 2010 Budget:

" Our policy is to raise from the ruins of an economy built on debt a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export. "

This is such a broken, repetitive and downright ignorant line.

The government deficit was priced into the economy many years ago so merely having a deficit does not boost consumption. You need to look at the delta (the change) in government spending. The change has been the government deficit coming down each year so that is a negative on growth not a boost.

The economies growth is happening despite government spending levels not because of it.

Government borrowing is higher now than it was before the recession.

The government is therefore choosing to pump more borrowed money into the economy than Gordon Brown ever did as Chancellor.

Perhaps you'd like to give us your views on how well the government's plan to create 'a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export' is going ?

You can mention the current account deficit, productivity, GDP per head and industrial production if you'd like.

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

According to the exit poll Sanders won 58/42 with white voters.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/sc/Dem

Is that percentages or actual numbers ?

another_richard said:

flightpath01 said:

The govt has been cutting its spending for the last 6 years and has raised VAT for instance to 20%.

Except that current government spending has been increasing:

2011/12 £625bn
2012/13 £636bn
2013/14 £646bn
2014/15 £650bn

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_428954.pdf

As you should well know considering how often you claim that government spending has increased on this department or that area.

Pulpstar said:

Sanders is going to get marmalised here

Philip_Thompson said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SouthamObserver said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

@ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.

The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.

This is a mega-serious issue not a joke Mayoral post where you play with an overgrown train set.

RACISM against people wot like trains!

People wot like trains aren't a race, they're a sub-race.

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

Sanders is going to get marmalised here

But he's winning with some of the demographics who'll decide the election in November.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The morning thread is for PB classicists

AV? Be still my beating heart!

That was last week. Alas tomorrow is an epic today for me, so only one thread from me.

I've decided to do an AV thread on the anniversary of the AV referendum.

Last week was the PB equivalent of a virtuous lady flashing a bit of ankle at us.

Well do you want it quick, or do you want it good?

Beggars can't be choosers.
There's no such thing as bad AV.

The morning thread features, inter alia.

1) Orgies
2) Cannibalism
3) Julius Caesar
4) Monty Python

Surely that must excite you?

Sounds fun, looking forward to it.

Philip_Thompson said:

Government borrowing has fallen every year. To suggest otherwise is an outright falsehood. Scorecard

Save: Positive.
Household debt to GDP which had risen every single year from 1997 to 2010 peaking around 100% of GDP has fallen every year under this government getting down to about a thirteen year low: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/households-debt-to-gdp
As well as household debt falling, the Government deficit has fallen every year under this government.

Invest: Positive
Business investments and business start ups are both running strong

Export: Mixed
Exports have been hit by the ongoing Eurozone crisis but while exports to the Eurozone have fallen, exports to the rest of world have risen. Overall exports are flatlining at a record high.

Pulpstar said:

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

Sanders is going to get marmalised here

But he's winning with some of the demographics who'll decide the election in November.

Doesn't matter as he won't get there.

Danny565 said:

She remains a pretty awful public speaker though...

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

AndyJS said:

Pulpstar said:

Sanders is going to get marmalised here

But he's winning with some of the demographics who'll decide the election in November.

Which is good news for Trump if he's facing Hillary.

Not many white liberals who voted for Sanders will vote for Trump even in South Carolina

Trump will get all the Trump-Sanders waverers now as the Democrat contest is pretty much over. Trump-Sanders is an actual thing, people who want to fuck up the system basically.

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

flightpath01 said:

The govt has been cutting its spending for the last 6 years and has raised VAT for instance to 20%.

Except that current government spending has been increasing:

2011/12 £625bn
2012/13 £636bn
2013/14 £646bn
2014/15 £650bn

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_428954.pdf

As you should well know considering how often you claim that government spending has increased on this department or that area.

Are you seriously reporting figures in Nominal terms? You're not that ignorant are you? Are you generally ignorant or just trying to spin?

Government spending is falling in real terms and falling fast as a percentage of GDP.

another_richard said:

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

flightpath01 said:

The govt has been cutting its spending for the last 6 years and has raised VAT for instance to 20%.

Except that current government spending has been increasing:

2011/12 £625bn
2012/13 £636bn
2013/14 £646bn
2014/15 £650bn

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_428954.pdf

As you should well know considering how often you claim that government spending has increased on this department or that area.

Are you seriously reporting figures in Nominal terms? You're not that ignorant are you? Are you generally ignorant or just trying to spin?

Government spending is falling in real terms and falling fast as a percentage of GDP.

You seem very flustered when presented with actual numbers.

flightpath claimed that the government had been cutting its spending for 6 years. It hasn't, spending has increased.

Philip_Thompson said:

" UK business investment has performed impressively in recent years, substantially outgrowing other components of GDP since 2010, he said. Business investment is expected to rise by an average of 6.4pc a year until the end of the decade, when it is forecast to reach a record high of 12.9pc of GDP.

EY said this would be helped by Britain's business-friendly environment. Corporation tax is on course to fall to 18pc by 2020, from 28pc in 2010. "

But chicken licken can't tell the difference between real and nominal terms so savings and investment must be awful and the sky falling.

another_richard said:

Philip_Thompson said:

" UK business investment has performed impressively in recent years, substantially outgrowing other components of GDP since 2010, he said. Business investment is expected to rise by an average of 6.4pc a year until the end of the decade, when it is forecast to reach a record high of 12.9pc of GDP.

EY said this would be helped by Britain's business-friendly environment. Corporation tax is on course to fall to 18pc by 2020, from 28pc in 2010. "

But chicken licken can't tell the difference between real and nominal terms so savings and investment must be awful and the sky falling.

Your frothing is getting more shrill.

Household savings rates are at a record low, investment rates should be rising very strongly at this stage of the economic cycle.

And you still don't want to mention the current account deficit, productivity, GDP per head and industrial production.

Perhaps instead you could remind us of how much Osborne said government borrowing would be in his 2010 Budget and how much it actually has been.

Philip_Thompson said:

another_richard said:

Philip_Thompson said:

" UK business investment has performed impressively in recent years, substantially outgrowing other components of GDP since 2010, he said. Business investment is expected to rise by an average of 6.4pc a year until the end of the decade, when it is forecast to reach a record high of 12.9pc of GDP.

EY said this would be helped by Britain's business-friendly environment. Corporation tax is on course to fall to 18pc by 2020, from 28pc in 2010. "

But chicken licken can't tell the difference between real and nominal terms so savings and investment must be awful and the sky falling.

Your frothing is getting more shrill.

Household savings rates are at a record low, investment rates should be rising very strongly at this stage of the economic cycle.

And you still don't want to mention the current account deficit, productivity, GDP per head and industrial production.

Perhaps instead you could remind us of how much Osborne said government borrowing would be in his 2010 Budget and how much it actually has been.

LOL pot calling the kettle black claiming about "shrill" and "frothing" how about trying to mention some real figures on savings and investments?

Bit odd complaining that "investment rates should be rising very strongly" when investment rates are at a record high.

I've not mentioned the current account deficit, productivity, GDP per capita and industrial production as they're not "savings, investment and exports". Instead I've mentioned: savings, investments and exports. But oh look, a dead cat.

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

The most interesting thing about the South Carolina primary may be the turnout since it'll give an indication of how enthusiastic Democratic voters are this year.

How did the Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada turnouts compare with 2008 and 2000 ?

I'm not sure how you calculate turnout with caucuses.

New Hampshire:
2016: 250,983
2008: 287,557
2000: 154,639

Thanks.

Turnout is still healthy even if down from the excitement of 2008.

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

The most interesting thing about the South Carolina primary may be the turnout since it'll give an indication of how enthusiastic Democratic voters are this year.

How did the Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada turnouts compare with 2008 and 2000 ?

I'm not sure how you calculate turnout with caucuses.

New Hampshire:
2016: 250,983
2008: 287,557
2000: 154,639

Thanks.

Turnout is still healthy even if down from the excitement of 2008.

MTimT said:

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

another_richard said:

AndyJS said:

The most interesting thing about the South Carolina primary may be the turnout since it'll give an indication of how enthusiastic Democratic voters are this year.

How did the Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada turnouts compare with 2008 and 2000 ?

I'm not sure how you calculate turnout with caucuses.

New Hampshire:
2016: 250,983
2008: 287,557
2000: 154,639

Thanks.

Turnout is still healthy even if down from the excitement of 2008.

2008 South Caroline Dem primary turnout ~532k, 2016 turnout ~370k. That is quite a drop off.

williamglenn said:

Moses_ said:

AndyJS said:

Brussels is temporarily pulling the plug on plans to ban high-powered kettles and toasters in order to avoid giving anti-EU campaigners fresh ammunition in the Britain’s “Brexit” referendum, it was reported today."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12175832/Fearing-Brexit-Brussels-pulls-plug-on-kettles-ban.html

Like I keep saying. When the vote is to remain then all hell will break loose. This story is just the tip of the iceberg

You think they'll go after inefficient freezers too? That would be a red line for sure.