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  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    The Dail's only Jew has just lost his seat.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    One of Hillary's trigger points is touchiness about being her own woman - remember the way she blew up when an African student asks her what Bill thought about an issue? I expect Trump to push this mercilessly throughout the campaign.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    Sean_F said:

    Wanderer said:



    I agree, of course, that Labour is a shambles but I think it could pull itself together, somewhat, with a new leader. We don't really know how popular a left-Labour platform would be with a more prepossessing leader.

    In general the far left is in good shape over most of the west - Jeremy and Bernie are familiar examples of people on the left of their spectrum getting further than expected, but the Irish election also includes a marked shift from Labour to parties further left. If we had PR in Britain, we'd instantly have a social democrat and a socialist party (as well as at least two ex-Tory parties), and I'm not sure the social democrat one would be larger. The view that capitalism doesn't work well is quite widespread, and the social democrat answer "let's tweak it a bit, then" doesn't really inspire.

    In fact, a what-if thread on how PR politics would work out might be a fun exercise on a slow news day. I suspect we'd end up with a Cameroon-social democrat coalition, like Germany.
    Probably a Conservative government with supply and confidence from UKIP.
    Will UKIP even exist after the 23rd June
    The Short money is already at risk by pissing off Carswell. If UKIP are struggling for funds now, hard to see why anyone is going to put big money into a one-trick pony that has already gone lame.... Off to the glue factory with Farage....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756

    Sean_F said:

    Wanderer said:



    I agree, of course, that Labour is a shambles but I think it could pull itself together, somewhat, with a new leader. We don't really know how popular a left-Labour platform would be with a more prepossessing leader.

    In general the far left is in good shape over most of the west - Jeremy and Bernie are familiar examples of people on the left of their spectrum getting further than expected, but the Irish election also includes a marked shift from Labour to parties further left. If we had PR in Britain, we'd instantly have a social democrat and a socialist party (as well as at least two ex-Tory parties), and I'm not sure the social democrat one would be larger. The view that capitalism doesn't work well is quite widespread, and the social democrat answer "let's tweak it a bit, then" doesn't really inspire.

    In fact, a what-if thread on how PR politics would work out might be a fun exercise on a slow news day. I suspect we'd end up with a Cameroon-social democrat coalition, like Germany.
    Probably a Conservative government with supply and confidence from UKIP.
    Will UKIP even exist after the 23rd June
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Wanderer said:



    I agree, of course, that Labour is a shambles but I think it could pull itself together, somewhat, with a new leader. We don't really know how popular a left-Labour platform would be with a more prepossessing leader.

    In general the far left is in good shape over most of the west - Jeremy and Bernie are familiar examples of people on the left of their spectrum getting further than expected, but the Irish election also includes a marked shift from Labour to parties further left. If we had PR in Britain, we'd instantly have a social democrat and a socialist party (as well as at least two ex-Tory parties), and I'm not sure the social democrat one would be larger. The view that capitalism doesn't work well is quite widespread, and the social democrat answer "let's tweak it a bit, then" doesn't really inspire.

    In fact, a what-if thread on how PR politics would work out might be a fun exercise on a slow news day. I suspect we'd end up with a Cameroon-social democrat coalition, like Germany.
    Probably a Conservative government with supply and confidence from UKIP.
    Although if we voted for Brexit, UKIP would not look like it does today. It would lose some of its left wing Brexit supporters, as well as all of its libertarian ones.
    I meant if we'd had PR in 2015
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    Sean_F said:

    Wanderer said:



    I .

    Will UKIP even exist after the 23rd June
    No - UKIP are already a shambles as is the Leave campaign, whose leaders are a group of political misfits (including the blonde bombshell). As the main current opinion polls show, Remain are leading by well over 10%, disregarding the misleading self-selecting online polls. I expect the winning margin on 23/6/16 to be approximately 20% once project fear has kicked in.


  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    The Dail's only Jew has just lost his seat.

    If he was supporting unpopular policies, that's fair.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Incompetence and out of touchness of political consultants, exhibit A:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/703665528536174592
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    daodao said:

    Sean_F said:

    Wanderer said:



    I .

    Will UKIP even exist after the 23rd June
    No - UKIP are already a shambles as is the Leave campaign, whose leaders are a group of political misfits (including the blonde bombshell). As the main current opinion polls show, Remain are leading by well over 10%, disregarding the misleading self-selecting online polls. I expect the winning margin on 23/6/16 to be approximately 20% once project fear has kicked in.


    Solid, impartial, analysis there.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    Will UKIP even exist after the 23rd June?

    Sadly, no - UKIP are already a shambles, as is the Leave campaign as a whole, whose leaders and prominent supporters are a bunch of political misfits (the blonde bombshell included). As the current phone opinion polls show, Remain are leading by well over 10% and I expect a majority of 20% or thereabouts on 236/16, once project fear has kicked in.

    The long-term result will be that the UK ultimately becomes part of a political European union, a modern version of the Großdeutsches Reich, something which the German leader from 1933-45 failed to achieve.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    Watching the Irish election coverage one panelist made the point that Ireland has not seen a rise of a 'populist party' like has happened in the rest of Europe. Would it be unfair to suggest that this is because Ireland is sheltered from migration? I know that Ireland has had some immigration but I'm not sure it's on the scale seen elsewhere in Europe.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,048

    Sean_F said:

    Wanderer said:



    I agree, of course, that Labour is a shambles but I think it could pull itself together, somewhat, with a new leader. We don't really know how popular a left-Labour platform would be with a more prepossessing leader.

    In general the far left is in good shape over most of the west - Jeremy and Bernie are familiar examples of people on the left of their spectrum getting further than expected, but the Irish election also includes a marked shift from Labour to parties further left. If we had PR in Britain, we'd instantly have a social democrat and a socialist party (as well as at least two ex-Tory parties), and I'm not sure the social democrat one would be larger. The view that capitalism doesn't work well is quite widespread, and the social democrat answer "let's tweak it a bit, then" doesn't really inspire.

    In fact, a what-if thread on how PR politics would work out might be a fun exercise on a slow news day. I suspect we'd end up with a Cameroon-social democrat coalition, like Germany.
    Probably a Conservative government with supply and confidence from UKIP.
    Will UKIP even exist after the 23rd June
    They should just announce that they are disbanding on that date.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,896
    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hoping for a big night from Hillary, could do with seeing Sanders being thumped here.

    It looks quite likely.
    Sanders has done much of what he started to do already. He's made being a "socialist" respectable.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited February 2016
    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The Dail's only Jew has just lost his seat.

    If he was supporting unpopular policies, that's fair.
    That's the beauty of STV. There are no safe seats. In the Dail for 30 years, he was beaten by a running mate...

    Amazing number of Independents being elected all over the place.

    Our system is utterly moribund in comparison.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2016
    tlg86 said:

    Watching the Irish election coverage one panelist made the point that Ireland has not seen a rise of a 'populist party' like has happened in the rest of Europe. Would it be unfair to suggest that this is because Ireland is sheltered from migration? I know that Ireland has had some immigration but I'm not sure it's on the scale seen elsewhere in Europe.

    Ireland has had huge immigration from Eastern Europe. I believe there are now more Poles than Brits in Ireland.

    By 2011 one in eight people living in Ireland were not born in the country, more than double the figure in 2002.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Speedy said:

    Incompetence and out of touchness of political consultants, exhibit A:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/703665528536174592

    Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 · 18m18 minutes ago

    The key to good sarcasm is that about 20% of people don't get it's sarcasm. That's the optimum number.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    tlg86 said:

    Watching the Irish election coverage one panelist made the point that Ireland has not seen a rise of a 'populist party' like has happened in the rest of Europe. Would it be unfair to suggest that this is because Ireland is sheltered from migration? I know that Ireland has had some immigration but I'm not sure it's on the scale seen elsewhere in Europe.

    Some went to the SF, some to independents, and some to smaller left wing splinter parties.
    There has been no organized effort to create a populist movement there, but plenty of disorganized efforts.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Are the Irish results good for any of the parties ?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pong said:

    Speedy said:

    Incompetence and out of touchness of political consultants, exhibit A:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/703665528536174592

    Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 · 18m18 minutes ago

    The key to good sarcasm is that about 20% of people don't get it's sarcasm. That's the optimum number.
    With Nate Silver you never know.
  • Omnium said:

    Sean_F said:

    Wanderer said:



    I agree, of course, that Labour is a shambles but I think it could pull itself together, somewhat, with a new leader. We don't really know how popular a left-Labour platform would be with a more prepossessing leader.

    In general the far left is in good shape over most of the west - Jeremy and Bernie are familiar examples of people on the left of their spectrum getting further than expected, but the Irish election also includes a marked shift from Labour to parties further left. If we had PR in Britain, we'd instantly have a social democrat and a socialist party (as well as at least two ex-Tory parties), and I'm not sure the social democrat one would be larger. The view that capitalism doesn't work well is quite widespread, and the social democrat answer "let's tweak it a bit, then" doesn't really inspire.

    In fact, a what-if thread on how PR politics would work out might be a fun exercise on a slow news day. I suspect we'd end up with a Cameroon-social democrat coalition, like Germany.
    Probably a Conservative government with supply and confidence from UKIP.
    Will UKIP even exist after the 23rd June
    They should just announce that they are disbanding on that date.

    Just reading the tweets on Conservative home, and if you believe them, everyone is converting to leave and it looks like it's all over already
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    daodao said:

    Will UKIP even exist after the 23rd June?

    Sadly, no - UKIP are already a shambles, as is the Leave campaign as a whole, whose leaders and prominent supporters are a bunch of political misfits (the blonde bombshell included). As the current phone opinion polls show, Remain are leading by well over 10% and I expect a majority of 20% or thereabouts on 236/16, once project fear has kicked in.

    The long-term result will be that the UK ultimately becomes part of a political European union, a modern version of the Großdeutsches Reich, something which the German leader from 1933-45 failed to achieve.

    Phone polls, eh? You're not selective at all then...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Wanderer said:



    I agree, of course, that Labour is a shambles but I think it could pull itself together, somewhat, with a new leader. We don't really know how popular a left-Labour platform would be with a more prepossessing leader.

    In general the far left is in good shape over most of the west - Jeremy and Bernie are familiar examples of people on the left of their spectrum getting further than expected, but the Irish election also includes a marked shift from Labour to parties further left. If we had PR in Britain, we'd instantly have a social democrat and a socialist party (as well as at least two ex-Tory parties), and I'm not sure the social democrat one would be larger. The view that capitalism doesn't work well is quite widespread, and the social democrat answer "let's tweak it a bit, then" doesn't really inspire.

    In fact, a what-if thread on how PR politics would work out might be a fun exercise on a slow news day. I suspect we'd end up with a Cameroon-social democrat coalition, like Germany.
    I was musing on how we might get to PR. Any bill to do so would have to have majority in Westminster to pass the bill being the paradox.

    If however a majority party wanted it, then it could go through. I could see that happening if both factions of the Tories became irretrivably split, and all up for de-selection. It is just about possible to conceive. Slightly more probable indeed to Leicester City winning the League. Now 9 points clear of 4th place...

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    Speedy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Watching the Irish election coverage one panelist made the point that Ireland has not seen a rise of a 'populist party' like has happened in the rest of Europe. Would it be unfair to suggest that this is because Ireland is sheltered from migration? I know that Ireland has had some immigration but I'm not sure it's on the scale seen elsewhere in Europe.

    Some went to the SF, some to independents, and some to smaller left wing splinter parties.
    There has been no organized effort to create a populist movement there, but plenty of disorganized efforts.
    We tend to think of SF in the context of Northern Ireland, but has immigration from Eastern Europe played a part in their rise? It will be interesting to see what happens in Ireland - it looks to have a very hung parliament.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hoping for a big night from Hillary, could do with seeing Sanders being thumped here.

    It looks quite likely.
    Sanders has done much of what he started to do already. He's made being a "socialist" respectable.
    He may have made it respectable, but he's certainly not electable.
  • Wanderer said:



    I agree, of course, that Labour is a shambles but I think it could pull itself together, somewhat, with a new leader. We don't really know how popular a left-Labour platform would be with a more prepossessing leader.

    In general the far left is in good shape over most of the west - Jeremy and Bernie are familiar examples of people on the left of their spectrum getting further than expected, but the Irish election also includes a marked shift from Labour to parties further left. If we had PR in Britain, we'd instantly have a social democrat and a socialist party (as well as at least two ex-Tory parties), and I'm not sure the social democrat one would be larger. The view that capitalism doesn't work well is quite widespread, and the social democrat answer "let's tweak it a bit, then" doesn't really inspire.

    In fact, a what-if thread on how PR politics would work out might be a fun exercise on a slow news day. I suspect we'd end up with a Cameroon-social democrat coalition, like Germany.
    I was musing on how we might get to PR. Any bill to do so would have to have majority in Westminster to pass the bill being the paradox.

    If however a majority party wanted it, then it could go through. I could see that happening if both factions of the Tories became irretrivably split, and all up for de-selection. It is just about possible to conceive. Slightly more probable indeed to Leicester City winning the League. Now 9 points clear of 4th place...

    Scored a late winner today I believe. When United were winning all the premierships they consistently scored late winning goals. The omens are good for Leicester and I really hope they succeed, they certainly deserve it
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Speedy said:

    Incompetence and out of touchness of political consultants, exhibit A:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/703665528536174592

    I think that must be tongue in cheek- Rubio has not won anything and he trails by 20 points in Florida - if he can't win his home state he's done.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hoping for a big night from Hillary, could do with seeing Sanders being thumped here.

    It looks quite likely.
    Sanders has done much of what he started to do already. He's made being a "socialist" respectable.
    He may have made it respectable, but he's certainly not electable.
    That brings to mind the Mel and Kim classic...

    On Hillary's emails, it looks like some fall guys from her circle may be being lined up.

    http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/02/27/us/politics/new-batch-of-hillary-clinton-emails-points-to-a-key-role-played-by-a-deputy.html?_r=0&referer=
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Tim_B said:

    Speedy said:

    Incompetence and out of touchness of political consultants, exhibit A:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/703665528536174592

    I think that must be tongue in cheek- Rubio has not won anything and he trails by 20 points in Florida - if he can't win his home state he's done.
    Nate's not wrong.

    He's the clear second place favourite.

    ;)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062

    Wanderer said:



    I agree, of course, that Labour is a shambles but I think it could pull itself together, somewhat, with a new leader. We don't really know how popular a left-Labour platform would be with a more prepossessing leader.

    In general the far left is in good shape over most of the west - Jeremy and Bernie are familiar examples of people on the left of their spectrum getting further than expected, but the Irish election also includes a marked shift from Labour to parties further left. If we had PR in Britain, we'd instantly have a social democrat and a socialist party (as well as at least two ex-Tory parties), and I'm not sure the social democrat one would be larger. The view that capitalism doesn't work well is quite widespread, and the social democrat answer "let's tweak it a bit, then" doesn't really inspire.

    In fact, a what-if thread on how PR politics would work out might be a fun exercise on a slow news day. I suspect we'd end up with a Cameroon-social democrat coalition, like Germany.

    How it might work out is that Jeremy Corbyn would be as far away from being Prime Minister as he is now.

    In the space of five months Jezza is likely to preside over huge Labour losses in Scotland, Wales and England, and will watch - powerless and irrelevant - as voters decide whether to leave the EU.

    Today as Sadiq Khan campaigned to be mayor of London, Jeremy Corby - the leader of the Labour party - thought the most productive thing he could do would be to march and speak against Labour party policy.

    And you think he is fantastic.

    It would be laughable if this comfortable, consequence-free posturing was not letting down millions of people who need a credible alternative to this self-indulgent, increasingly useless and unopposed Tory government.

    I think you're right. I can't remember a time when Labour has been so irrelevant. In the absence of an official opposition the Tories have split in two and invented their own. There are some very angry ex Labour supporters out there and the chances of them returning are not good.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hoping for a big night from Hillary, could do with seeing Sanders being thumped here.

    It looks quite likely.
    Sanders has done much of what he started to do already. He's made being a "socialist" respectable.
    He may have made it respectable, but he's certainly not electable.
    He does very well on the H2H polling oddly enough, though Norpoth puts him at a 1% chance against Trump as opposed to a 3% for Hilary.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    As well as Jake there's Huma Abedin, who seems to have held at least 4 positions at the same time. There's plenty of blame to go around. With yesterday's email release we're now over 1800 classified emails, with the last release to come Monday evening.

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hoping for a big night from Hillary, could do with seeing Sanders being thumped here.

    It looks quite likely.
    Sanders has done much of what he started to do already. He's made being a "socialist" respectable.
    He may have made it respectable, but he's certainly not electable.
    That brings to mind the Mel and Kim classic...

    On Hillary's emails, it looks like some fall guys from her circle may be being lined up.

    http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/02/27/us/politics/new-batch-of-hillary-clinton-emails-points-to-a-key-role-played-by-a-deputy.html?_r=0&referer=
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Wanderer said:



    I agree, of course, that Labour is a shambles but I think it could pull itself together, somewhat, with a new leader. We don't really know how popular a left-Labour platform would be with a more prepossessing leader.

    In general the far left is in good shape over most of the west - Jeremy and Bernie are familiar examples of people on the left of their spectrum getting further than expected, but the Irish election also includes a marked shift from Labour to parties further left. If we had PR in Britain, we'd instantly have a social democrat and a socialist party (as well as at least two ex-Tory parties), and I'm not sure the social democrat one would be larger. The view that capitalism doesn't work well is quite widespread, and the social democrat answer "let's tweak it a bit, then" doesn't really inspire.

    In fact, a what-if thread on how PR politics would work out might be a fun exercise on a slow news day. I suspect we'd end up with a Cameroon-social democrat coalition, like Germany.
    I was musing on how we might get to PR. Any bill to do so would have to have majority in Westminster to pass the bill being the paradox.

    If however a majority party wanted it, then it could go through. I could see that happening if both factions of the Tories became irretrivably split, and all up for de-selection. It is just about possible to conceive. Slightly more probable indeed to Leicester City winning the League. Now 9 points clear of 4th place...

    Scored a late winner today I believe. When United were winning all the premierships they consistently scored late winning goals. The omens are good for Leicester and I really hope they succeed, they certainly deserve it
    Grinding out the results on an off day is how it is done. WBA will park the bus on Tuesday too. The derby element will hopefully get the juices flowing a bit more briskly.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    Rubio's latest attacks against Trump:

    "He has never punched anyone in the face!"
    "We cannot allow a con-artist to get access to the nuclear codes!"
    "Worst spray tan in America: he should sue whoever did that to his face!"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBS3EFggBMs
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,070
    Evening all :)

    Keeping an eye on the Irish results and an incredible comeback for Fianna Fail after the dreadful 2011 result. It's hard to see them being outside the next Irish Government even if said Government is an unstable and messy coalition.

    Interesting to see the new Social Democrats getting 3 TDs so far and clearly Independent TDs will form a strong bloc. I presume SF will continue to be persona non grata in any Government (or perhaps not).

    It does look as though a second election later this year is a strong possibility.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Roger said:

    Wanderer said:



    I agree, of course, that Labour is a shambles but I think it could pull itself together, somewhat, with a new leader. We don't really know how popular a left-Labour platform would be with a more prepossessing leader.

    In general the far left is in good shape over most of the west - Jeremy and Bernie are familiar examples of people on the left of their spectrum getting further than expected, but the Irish election also includes a marked shift from Labour to parties further left. If we had PR in Britain, we'd instantly have a social democrat and a socialist party (as well as at least two ex-Tory parties), and I'm not sure the social democrat one would be larger. The view that capitalism doesn't work well is quite widespread, and the social democrat answer "let's tweak it a bit, then" doesn't really inspire.

    In fact, a what-if thread on how PR politics would work out might be a fun exercise on a slow news day. I suspect we'd end up with a Cameroon-social democrat coalition, like Germany.

    How it might work out is that Jeremy Corbyn would be as far away from being Prime Minister as he is now.

    In the space of five months Jezza is likely to preside over huge Labour losses in Scotland, Wales and England, and will watch - powerless and irrelevant - as voters decide whether to leave the EU.

    Today as Sadiq Khan campaigned to be mayor of London, Jeremy Corby - the leader of the Labour party - thought the most productive thing he could do would be to march and speak against Labour party policy.

    And you think he is fantastic.

    It would be laughable if this comfortable, consequence-free posturing was not letting down millions of people who need a credible alternative to this self-indulgent, increasingly useless and unopposed Tory government.

    I think you're right. I can't remember a time when Labour has been so irrelevant. In the absence of an official opposition the Tories have split in two and invented their own.
    We know our democratic duty....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    After reading Rob Smithson's post this morning with Bloomberg taking California and New York, I had this insane idea which I'm sure has to be fatally flawed somewhere along the way, but it leads to such an amusing end-state:

    It's a Trump/Kasich ticket against a Clinton/Sanders one, with a Bloomberg third-party challenge.
    The Democrats retake control of the Senate, but don't make enough ground in the House of Representatives to beat the Republican lead in States controlled.

    However, the Presidential Election runs as a near-repeat of the last one; the only three States with different outcome being Ohio (flipped into the Republican column thanks to Kasich on the ticket), New York and California (going for Bloomberg as predicted by Rob).

    Result: Clinton/Sanders 230, Trump/Kasich 224, Bloomber/whoever 84.

    The now-Democrat controlled Senate chooses the VP. The entire Congress chooses the President.

    We end up with a Trump/Sanders outcome...

    And if Sanders gave Trump apoplexy then he inherits the White House!

    Incidentally if Sanders makes the ticket, would he become the first non-Christian on a Rep or Dem ticket?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,944
    Anecdote alert: I was chatting to a former colleague who is, it's fair to say, extremely Zionist, to the extent of having used his holidays to go to Israel to help the IDF.

    I asked him what he thought of Melanie Phillips, and he said she was an utterly deluded extremist. He said people like her perpetuated the conflict every bit as much as suicide bombers, and he didn't understand why a British paper carried "her crap".
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    rcs1000 said:

    I asked him what he thought of Melanie Phillips, and he said she was an utterly deluded extremist.

    I quite like her but have always enjoyed David Aaronovitch's description of her as the 'flint-woman of north London'.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,944
    daodao said:

    Will UKIP even exist after the 23rd June?

    Sadly, no - UKIP are already a shambles, as is the Leave campaign as a whole, whose leaders and prominent supporters are a bunch of political misfits (the blonde bombshell included). As the current phone opinion polls show, Remain are leading by well over 10% and I expect a majority of 20% or thereabouts on 236/16, once project fear has kicked in.

    The long-term result will be that the UK ultimately becomes part of a political European union, a modern version of the Großdeutsches Reich, something which the German leader from 1933-45 failed to achieve.

    I suspect we'll vote to stay in in June,

    And then leave at some point in the next decade.

    If something is sufficiently unpopular - a genuine EU army, attempts to send a quota of refugees to the UK, or an EU income tax, to pick three - then there will be political mileage in opposing it. Look at the upcoming referendum in Hungary, as an example.
  • The Heff isn't happy. A reader - a member of the 'rank and file' - has written in blasting Osborne for ruining his pension and the price of his house. Heff sympathizes entirely and implores Osborne to embrace Reaganomics.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/12175196/The-letter-from-a-Conservative-activist-that-proves-how-angry-Tories-are-with-Cameron.html
  • rcs1000 said:

    daodao said:

    Will UKIP even exist after the 23rd June?

    Sadly, no - UKIP are already a shambles, as is the Leave campaign as a whole, whose leaders and prominent supporters are a bunch of political misfits (the blonde bombshell included). As the current phone opinion polls show, Remain are leading by well over 10% and I expect a majority of 20% or thereabouts on 236/16, once project fear has kicked in.

    The long-term result will be that the UK ultimately becomes part of a political European union, a modern version of the Großdeutsches Reich, something which the German leader from 1933-45 failed to achieve.

    I suspect we'll vote to stay in in June,

    And then leave at some point in the next decade.

    If something is sufficiently unpopular - a genuine EU army, attempts to send a quota of refugees to the UK, or an EU income tax, to pick three - then there will be political mileage in opposing it. Look at the upcoming referendum in Hungary, as an example.
    But we have vetoes on all three of those.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Anecdote alert: I was chatting to a former colleague who is, it's fair to say, extremely Zionist, to the extent of having used his holidays to go to Israel to help the IDF.

    I asked him what he thought of Melanie Phillips, and he said she was an utterly deluded extremist. He said people like her perpetuated the conflict every bit as much as suicide bombers, and he didn't understand why a British paper carried "her crap".

    I was amazed when I discovered she is married to Joshua Rozenberg. In his BBC guise he seems the embodiment of analytical objectivity.
  • Roger said:

    Wanderer said:



    I agree, of course, that Labour is a shambles but I think it could pull itself together, somewhat, with a new leader. We don't really know how popular a left-Labour platform would be with a more prepossessing leader.

    In general the far left is in good shape over most of the west - Jeremy and Bernie are familiar examples of people on the left of their spectrum getting further than expected, but the Irish election also includes a marked shift from Labour to parties further left. If we had PR in Britain, we'd instantly have a social democrat and a socialist party (as well as at least two ex-Tory parties), and I'm not sure the social democrat one would be larger. The view that capitalism doesn't work well is quite widespread, and the social democrat answer "let's tweak it a bit, then" doesn't really inspire.

    In fact, a what-if thread on how PR politics would work out might be a fun exercise on a slow news day. I suspect we'd end up with a Cameroon-social democrat coalition, like Germany.

    How it might work out is that Jeremy Corbyn would be as far away from being Prime Minister as he is now.

    In the space of five months Jezza is likely to preside over huge Labour losses in Scotland, Wales and England, and will watch - powerless and irrelevant - as voters decide whether to leave the EU.

    Today as Sadiq Khan campaigned to be mayor of London, Jeremy Corby - the leader of the Labour party - thought the most productive thing he could do would be to march and speak against Labour party policy.

    And you think he is fantastic.

    It would be laughable if this comfortable, consequence-free posturing was not letting down millions of people who need a credible alternative to this self-indulgent, increasingly useless and unopposed Tory government.

    I think you're right. I can't remember a time when Labour has been so irrelevant. In the absence of an official opposition the Tories have split in two and invented their own. There are some very angry ex Labour supporters out there and the chances of them returning are not good.

    Nick, the Labour membership and its leadership are letting millions of people down. They are entirely divorced from reality and completely irrelevant. It's unforgiveable self-indulgence.

  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    edited February 2016
    Golly

    David Boothroyd
    Compare and contrast. First, press comment. Then, text messages sent to @zacharvey97 #YL16 https://t.co/Mn8P2xvi3v
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Rubio's latest attacks against Trump:

    "He has never punched anyone in the face!"
    "We cannot allow a con-artist to get access to the nuclear codes!"
    "Worst spray tan in America: he should sue whoever did that to his face!"

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBS3EFggBMs


    Of course Trump punched someone in the face:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkghtyxZ6rc

    As Trump would say: "Liar, liar"
  • The Heff isn't happy. A reader - a member of the 'rank and file' - has written in blasting Osborne for ruining his pension and the price of his house. Heff sympathizes entirely and implores Osborne to embrace Reaganomics.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/12175196/The-letter-from-a-Conservative-activist-that-proves-how-angry-Tories-are-with-Cameron.html

    Higher rate pension tax relief has always been unfair to taxpayers. It should be standardised at 25% and the start rate of 40% tax increased to £50,000 in the March budget
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Speedy said:

    Rubio's latest attacks against Trump:

    "He has never punched anyone in the face!"
    "We cannot allow a con-artist to get access to the nuclear codes!"
    "Worst spray tan in America: he should sue whoever did that to his face!"

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBS3EFggBMs


    Of course Trump punched someone in the face:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkghtyxZ6rc

    As Trump would say: "Liar, liar"
    Possibly the most bizarre bit of video I have seen in a long time!

    (To answer my own question: No - Joe Lieberman was a Jewish VP candidate in 2000)
  • RodCrosby said:

    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The Dail's only Jew has just lost his seat.

    If he was supporting unpopular policies, that's fair.
    That's the beauty of STV. There are no safe seats. In the Dail for 30 years, he was beaten by a running mate...

    Amazing number of Independents being elected all over the place.

    Our system is utterly moribund in comparison.
    If only we had more drink driver campaigners rather than credible politicians from the most serious and popular party forming a majority government. No wait, that's worse.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768

    Roger said:

    Wanderer said:



    I agree, of course, that Labour is a shambles but I think it could pull itself together, somewhat, with a new leader. We don't really know how popular a left-Labour platform would be with a more prepossessing leader.

    In general the far left is in good shape over most of the west - Jeremy and Bernie are familiar examples of people on the left of their spectrum getting further than expected, but the Irish election also includes a marked shift from Labour to parties further left. If we had PR in Britain, we'd instantly have a social democrat and a socialist party (as well as at least two ex-Tory parties), and I'm not sure the social democrat one would be larger. The view that capitalism doesn't work well is quite widespread, and the social democrat answer "let's tweak it a bit, then" doesn't really inspire.

    In fact, a what-if thread on how PR politics would work out might be a fun exercise on a slow news day. I suspect we'd end up with a Cameroon-social democrat coalition, like Germany.

    How it might work out is that Jeremy Corbyn would be as far away from being Prime Minister as he is now.

    In the space of five months Jezza is likely to preside over huge Labour losses in Scotland, Wales and England, and will watch - powerless and irrelevant - as voters decide whether to leave the EU.

    Today as Sadiq Khan campaigned to be mayor of London, Jeremy Corby - the leader of the Labour party - thought the most productive thing he could do would be to march and speak against Labour party policy.

    And you think he is fantastic.

    It would be laughable if this comfortable, consequence-free posturing was not letting down millions of people who need a credible alternative to this self-indulgent, increasingly useless and unopposed Tory government.

    I think you're right. I can't remember a time when Labour has been so irrelevant. In the absence of an official opposition the Tories have split in two and invented their own. There are some very angry ex Labour supporters out there and the chances of them returning are not good.

    Nick, the Labour membership and its leadership are letting millions of people down. They are entirely divorced from reality and completely irrelevant. It's unforgiveable self-indulgence.

    IMO those who think this Gov;t is the least bad option are the self indulgent ones
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Golly

    David Boothroyd
    Compare and contrast. First, press comment. Then, text messages sent to @zacharvey97 #YL16 https://t.co/Mn8P2xvi3v

    @ChrisLeslieMP: In general under UK election law it's offence to induce voter to display ballot once marked https://t.co/j8EABmImys https://t.co/tX936BQpS3
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Look away Southam, look away now

    This is the Labour party 2016

    http://hurryupharry.org/2016/02/26/labour-mps-stand-up-with-extremists/
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,070


    Nick, the Labour membership and its leadership are letting millions of people down. They are entirely divorced from reality and completely irrelevant. It's unforgiveable self-indulgence.

    The only saving grace, SO, is that the Conservatives are now having their own bout of self-indulgence, the outcome of which isn't easy to predict.

    I do agree that not only do Labour, the Lib Dems and all the other non-Conservative parties suddenly seem irrelevant (the entire EU Referendum apparently hinges on what Conservative voters will do, the rest of us not counting it seems) but there seems next to no scrutiny of the business of Government.

    I've not for instance seen much comment on 4% Council Tax rises being sought by Conservative run Councils to counter reductions in central Government spending - that's 4% against an official inflation rate of 0.3%.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768
    Floater said:

    Look away Southam, look away now

    This is the Labour party 2016

    http://hurryupharry.org/2016/02/26/labour-mps-stand-up-with-extremists/

    Tories 2016

    Elitist MP Priti Patel claimed £150,000 expenses & £100,000+ salary; says £30 cut to disabled people is justified!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Speedy said:

    Rubio's latest attacks against Trump:

    "He has never punched anyone in the face!"
    "We cannot allow a con-artist to get access to the nuclear codes!"
    "Worst spray tan in America: he should sue whoever did that to his face!"

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBS3EFggBMs


    Of course Trump punched someone in the face:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkghtyxZ6rc

    As Trump would say: "Liar, liar"
    Possibly the most bizarre bit of video I have seen in a long time!

    (To answer my own question: No - Joe Lieberman was a Jewish VP candidate in 2000)
    Actually this bit of Trump video is even wierder: Trump smooching with Rudi Guliani in drag:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4IrE6FMpai8
  • stodge said:


    Nick, the Labour membership and its leadership are letting millions of people down. They are entirely divorced from reality and completely irrelevant. It's unforgiveable self-indulgence.

    The only saving grace, SO, is that the Conservatives are now having their own bout of self-indulgence, the outcome of which isn't easy to predict.

    I do agree that not only do Labour, the Lib Dems and all the other non-Conservative parties suddenly seem irrelevant (the entire EU Referendum apparently hinges on what Conservative voters will do, the rest of us not counting it seems) but there seems next to no scrutiny of the business of Government.

    I've not for instance seen much comment on 4% Council Tax rises being sought by Conservative run Councils to counter reductions in central Government spending - that's 4% against an official inflation rate of 0.3%.

    The Tories have four years after the referendum to get over this self indulgence. Do Labour have four years after Corbyn and his ilk before the next election?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    stodge said:

    I've not for instance seen much comment on 4% Council Tax rises being sought by Conservative run Councils to counter reductions in central Government spending - that's 4% against an official inflation rate of 0.3%.

    Do Councils not have to have a referendum to raise Council Tax by more than 2%. The Tories running Woking Borough Council have raised Council Tax at 1.99% for the last few years.
  • HSBC didn't get a bailout. Idiot.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Except David is wrong. The UK did not bail out HSBC, so has no claim to its profits. Indeed HSBC may resent the government bailing out its rivals!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    The bank "bailout" is being recouped - at a profit.

    True, the Government will almost certainly make a loss on RBS - but the total amount put into RBS + Lloyds + Northern Rock + Bradford & Bingley will be recouped at a profit.

    The word "bailout" has given the impression the money put in by the Government was just tossed away - never to be seen again.

    It was a major error (of the Government) to allow that word to be used.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,070
    tlg86 said:

    stodge said:

    I've not for instance seen much comment on 4% Council Tax rises being sought by Conservative run Councils to counter reductions in central Government spending - that's 4% against an official inflation rate of 0.3%.

    Do Councils not have to have a referendum to raise Council Tax by more than 2%. The Tories running Woking Borough Council have raised Council Tax at 1.99% for the last few years.
    No, the actual Council Tax rise is 3.99%. Of that, 2% has been permitted as a one-off to get additional funding for adult and childrens' social care while 1.99% is the maximum allowed without a referendum.

    I don't know whether Woking's 1.99% rise is actually Surrey's 1.99% being passed on. My point is Council Tax will rise considerably in advance of wages and inflation this year but there seems to be little or no comment especially from Conservatives who spent the Labour years berating Councils for not living within their means.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    tlg86 said:

    stodge said:

    I've not for instance seen much comment on 4% Council Tax rises being sought by Conservative run Councils to counter reductions in central Government spending - that's 4% against an official inflation rate of 0.3%.

    Do Councils not have to have a referendum to raise Council Tax by more than 2%. The Tories running Woking Borough Council have raised Council Tax at 1.99% for the last few years.
    Councils can now increase CT by £5 without the need for a referendum so for Boroughs and Districts that will likely be more than 1.99% but not significantly.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hoping for a big night from Hillary, could do with seeing Sanders being thumped here.

    It looks quite likely.
    Sanders has done much of what he started to do already. He's made being a "socialist" respectable.
    He may have made it respectable, but he's certainly not electable.
    That brings to mind the Mel and Kim classic...

    On Hillary's emails, it looks like some fall guys from her circle may be being lined up.

    http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/02/27/us/politics/new-batch-of-hillary-clinton-emails-points-to-a-key-role-played-by-a-deputy.html?_r=0&referer=
    Obviously "The buck stops here" doesn't apply to Mrs Clinton.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,312
    stodge said:

    tlg86 said:

    stodge said:

    I've not for instance seen much comment on 4% Council Tax rises being sought by Conservative run Councils to counter reductions in central Government spending - that's 4% against an official inflation rate of 0.3%.

    Do Councils not have to have a referendum to raise Council Tax by more than 2%. The Tories running Woking Borough Council have raised Council Tax at 1.99% for the last few years.
    No, the actual Council Tax rise is 3.99%. Of that, 2% has been permitted as a one-off to get additional funding for adult and childrens' social care while 1.99% is the maximum allowed without a referendum.

    I don't know whether Woking's 1.99% rise is actually Surrey's 1.99% being passed on. My point is Council Tax will rise considerably in advance of wages and inflation this year but there seems to be little or no comment especially from Conservatives who spent the Labour years berating Councils for not living within their means.

    Ah, that's right, I'd forgotten about the ring fenced funding for social care. I can't honestly comment on whether Councils like Woking need to be upping Council Tax but I suspect they don't. I agree that the Tories deserve criticism. We had a Tory knock on our door during the locals last year and my dad told him that the increase in Council Tax was the main reason he had stopped voting Tory.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    stodge said:

    tlg86 said:

    stodge said:

    I've not for instance seen much comment on 4% Council Tax rises being sought by Conservative run Councils to counter reductions in central Government spending - that's 4% against an official inflation rate of 0.3%.

    Do Councils not have to have a referendum to raise Council Tax by more than 2%. The Tories running Woking Borough Council have raised Council Tax at 1.99% for the last few years.
    No, the actual Council Tax rise is 3.99%. Of that, 2% has been permitted as a one-off to get additional funding for adult and childrens' social care while 1.99% is the maximum allowed without a referendum.

    I don't know whether Woking's 1.99% rise is actually Surrey's 1.99% being passed on. My point is Council Tax will rise considerably in advance of wages and inflation this year but there seems to be little or no comment especially from Conservatives who spent the Labour years berating Councils for not living within their means.

    And as well you know, the Govt is no longer providing any freeze grant.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    MikeL said:

    The bank "bailout" is being recouped - at a profit.

    True, the Government will almost certainly make a loss on RBS - but the total amount put into RBS + Lloyds + Northern Rock + Bradford & Bingley will be recouped at a profit.

    The word "bailout" has given the impression the money put in by the Government was just tossed away - never to be seen again.

    It was a major error (of the Government) to allow that word to be used.
    More of a dutch to lay ?
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    RodCrosby said:

    Speedy said:

    RodCrosby said:

    The Dail's only Jew has just lost his seat.

    If he was supporting unpopular policies, that's fair.
    That's the beauty of STV. There are no safe seats. In the Dail for 30 years, he was beaten by a running mate...

    Amazing number of Independents being elected all over the place.

    Our system is utterly moribund in comparison.
    In fairness boundary changes and going from a five to three seat constituency made his position much less secure this time round.
  • The Heff isn't happy. A reader - a member of the 'rank and file' - has written in blasting Osborne for ruining his pension and the price of his house. Heff sympathizes entirely and implores Osborne to embrace Reaganomics.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/12175196/The-letter-from-a-Conservative-activist-that-proves-how-angry-Tories-are-with-Cameron.html

    Reagan proved deficits don't matter.
  • weejonnie said:

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hoping for a big night from Hillary, could do with seeing Sanders being thumped here.

    It looks quite likely.
    Sanders has done much of what he started to do already. He's made being a "socialist" respectable.
    He may have made it respectable, but he's certainly not electable.
    That brings to mind the Mel and Kim classic...

    On Hillary's emails, it looks like some fall guys from her circle may be being lined up.

    http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/02/27/us/politics/new-batch-of-hillary-clinton-emails-points-to-a-key-role-played-by-a-deputy.html?_r=0&referer=
    Obviously "The buck stops here" doesn't apply to Mrs Clinton.
    Or to any politician since Lord Carrington.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited February 2016
    HEAVY EDIT.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,865
    edited February 2016
    tlg86 said:

    stodge said:

    I've not for instance seen much comment on 4% Council Tax rises being sought by Conservative run Councils to counter reductions in central Government spending - that's 4% against an official inflation rate of 0.3%.

    Do Councils not have to have a referendum to raise Council Tax by more than 2%. The Tories running Woking Borough Council have raised Council Tax at 1.99% for the last few years.
    Some councils (possibly all, I do not know) have been allowed to raise 2% purely for a social care levy, on top of the 1.99% they can raise before they need to hold a referendum. So 3.99% rises are happening in many places I think.

    Edit: Beaten to it I see.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,070
    Just listened to Enda Kenny on RTE. He doesn't sound like a man who wants to be part of any Government. After the drubbing both FG and Labour have taken, I do wonder if FF will be left to try to cobble some sort of coalition together pending a second election later this year.
  • MikeL said:

    The bank "bailout" is being recouped - at a profit.

    True, the Government will almost certainly make a loss on RBS - but the total amount put into RBS + Lloyds + Northern Rock + Bradford & Bingley will be recouped at a profit.

    The word "bailout" has given the impression the money put in by the Government was just tossed away - never to be seen again.

    It was a major error (of the Government) to allow that word to be used.
    To be fair it was the Brown government that allowed that word to be used and if Brown had been re-elected there's every chance the money would not have been recovered at a profit.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited February 2016
    Irish Labour leader holds her seat, against expectations...
  • stodge said:

    tlg86 said:

    stodge said:

    I've not for instance seen much comment on 4% Council Tax rises being sought by Conservative run Councils to counter reductions in central Government spending - that's 4% against an official inflation rate of 0.3%.

    Do Councils not have to have a referendum to raise Council Tax by more than 2%. The Tories running Woking Borough Council have raised Council Tax at 1.99% for the last few years.
    No, the actual Council Tax rise is 3.99%. Of that, 2% has been permitted as a one-off to get additional funding for adult and childrens' social care while 1.99% is the maximum allowed without a referendum.

    It's not so much additional funding as to meet the pay costs which will hit social care providers from the "living wage" announcement. Normally when central government does something that will cost councils money they are expected to stump up for it centrally but in this case they decided it would be politically easier to put it on the local tax bill.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,070
    JohnO said:



    And as well you know, the Govt is no longer providing any freeze grant.

    What little I do know is that Government funding to local Councils comes from many different pots for many different uses such as capital funding to provide additional school places.

    If, overall, that entire package of funding represents about a half a councils' total Budget, any changes in that allocation are likely to have significant impacts but these may be mitigated by additional resources being provided in other areas.

    Not advising Councils until the brink of Christmas of these financial arrangements makes budget planning and setting very difficult.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ShippersUnbound: Boris Johnson wrote a second newspaper article arguing that we should stay in the EU as late as Friday night last week
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    dr_spyn said:
    Does that mean he thinks FG won't come first in the popular vote?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    edited February 2016
    @AndyJS

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35674465?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_breaking&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central


    "It is likely Fine Gael will remain the largest party, but with a narrow lead over the main opposition, Fianna Fáil."
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: This week I've seen stories saying Cam will be sacked if he loses the referendum, wins the referendum, or does either.

    Are there odds on Cameron still being in post on January 1st next year?
  • stodge said:

    JohnO said:



    And as well you know, the Govt is no longer providing any freeze grant.

    What little I do know is that Government funding to local Councils comes from many different pots for many different uses such as capital funding to provide additional school places.

    If, overall, that entire package of funding represents about a half a councils' total Budget, any changes in that allocation are likely to have significant impacts but these may be mitigated by additional resources being provided in other areas.

    Not advising Councils until the brink of Christmas of these financial arrangements makes budget planning and setting very difficult.

    Conwy Council raises Council tax year on year by 5% and are going to reduce bin collections to once a month, the first Council to do so in UK
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    dr_spyn said:

    Tories leaking to press.

    Unhappy Outers who think they are going to lose
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,046
    Anyone wanting to follow the latest labour drama it seems the young labour event today has been a barrel of laughs, from intimidation, anti semitism to lack of any disabled access.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,865
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: This week I've seen stories saying Cam will be sacked if he loses the referendum, wins the referendum, or does either.

    Are there odds on Cameron still being in post on January 1st next year?

    If he wins I can see him lasting that long quite easily (but in the process of handing over to someone else), if he loses he's definitely gone, so the odds would indeed be good to know.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,865
    edited February 2016
    dr_spyn said:
    Showing the futility of holding back and trying to play nice. Some nastiness comes out during any campaign, and already has and the idea the result would be unfair because of how Cameron played it was in full flow more than a year ago. He's a goner, sooner than he hoped at the very least. So the Tories may as well tear into each fully right now.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave
  • dr_spyn said:
    Presumably the inference is that Crosby is the Outers' good guy here. But wasn't postponing it what the Outers didn't want? Can someone please explain it to me?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,865

    dr_spyn said:
    Presumably the inference is that Crosby is the Outers' good guy here. But wasn't postponing it what the Outers didn't want? Can someone please explain it to me?
    In theory outers wanted a say a long time ago. In practice outers want it when they think they will win it. So criticisms of not having it before now were genuine, but now one is on offer, this soon is recognised as the best chance for Remain, so delaying would be preferable for many Leavers.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    dr_spyn said:
    Presumably the inference is that Crosby is the Outers' good guy here. But wasn't postponing it what the Outers didn't want? Can someone please explain it to me?
    The inference is that Crosby is better at reading the public mood.

    Some of the polls imply that he is correct.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    On topic.

    Polls. Lol.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2016
    Not buying the Boris wrote two columns (1 for In, 1 for Out) story. Why...not because I don't believe he was weighing up what was best for "Boris for PM" campaign right up until Sunday afternoon...it is because it is a well known fact he normally knocks out his Telegraph column while he is waiting for Sunday lunch to finish up cooking.

    http://order-order.com/2012/03/07/the-truth-about-boris-and-his-telegraph-column/
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    I think the sooner Tory MPs realise it is purge or be purged the better.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    He's a goner, sooner than he hoped at the very least.

    Couldn't beat Gordon Brown
    Couldn't keep the coalition together
    Couldn't win the Indyref
    Couldn't get a majority

    He's a goner...
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    That'll be Gove then :-)

    Either way, though, it will be worth watching!

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,865
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    He's a goner, sooner than he hoped at the very least.

    Couldn't beat Gordon Brown
    Couldn't keep the coalition together
    Couldn't win the Indyref
    Couldn't get a majority

    He's a goner...
    Fair point, but eventually it'll be right!

    And to be blunt, dealing with members and MPs who will not forgive him beating them on this issue that many hold absolutely central to themselves, particularly as they are already getting bitter about it, is a bigger challenge than beating Brown, working with Clegg and beating Miliband (the IndyRef I don't recall it being common thinking he couldn't it).

    He surely cannot stay if Leave wins, and for the sake of his party not tearing itself up it is pretty easy to see him not fighting too hard against the suggestion he should accelerate his own timetable to leave by 2020, to draw a line under things.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited February 2016
    Scott_P said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Tories leaking to press.

    Unhappy Outers who think they are going to lose
    I think you forget how fragile is the position of a Tory leader who has said he will resign. No longer an electoral strength, no longer worth cosying up for patronage. He'll be gone before Christmas; probably challenged within days of result.
  • kle4 said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Presumably the inference is that Crosby is the Outers' good guy here. But wasn't postponing it what the Outers didn't want? Can someone please explain it to me?
    In theory outers wanted a say a long time ago. In practice outers want it when they think they will win it. So criticisms of not having it before now were genuine, but now one is on offer, this soon is recognised as the best chance for Remain, so delaying would be preferable for many Leavers.
    So Leave now want to postpone the referendum until the polls shift? Sorry, but they've had years to prepare for this campaign. By now their arguments should have been so honed and expertly deployed that Brexit is a fait accompli. Not good enough.
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