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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How opinion on the referendum is going in first week after

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  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    He's a goner, sooner than he hoped at the very least.

    Couldn't beat Gordon Brown
    Couldn't keep the coalition together
    Couldn't win the Indyref
    Couldn't get a majority

    He's a goner...
    1. Couldn't beat Gordon Brown
    Against the worst PM in recent history, Cameron achieved a hung parliament.

    2. Couldn't keep the coalition together
    Aided by the self-immolation of the Lib Dems.

    3. Couldn't win the Indyref
    Only just, with a last-minute 'vow'.

    4. Couldn't get a majority
    See (2).

    Don't get me wrong, I think Cameron has done many good things for this country and the Tories. But he is completely off-base if he thinks that the EU deal will win it for him, or settle the issue even if he wins.

    Unclear what will happen to him afterwards, either way.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663

    stodge said:

    JohnO said:



    And as well you know, the Govt is no longer providing any freeze grant.

    What little I do know is that Government funding to local Councils comes from many different pots for many different uses such as capital funding to provide additional school places.

    If, overall, that entire package of funding represents about a half a councils' total Budget, any changes in that allocation are likely to have significant impacts but these may be mitigated by additional resources being provided in other areas.

    Not advising Councils until the brink of Christmas of these financial arrangements makes budget planning and setting very difficult.

    Conwy Council raises Council tax year on year by 5% and are going to reduce bin collections to once a month, the first Council to do so in UK
    That's crackers, do they not have something else they can cut ? Bin collections are the one council service pretty much everyone uses.
  • Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    JohnO said:



    And as well you know, the Govt is no longer providing any freeze grant.

    What little I do know is that Government funding to local Councils comes from many different pots for many different uses such as capital funding to provide additional school places.

    If, overall, that entire package of funding represents about a half a councils' total Budget, any changes in that allocation are likely to have significant impacts but these may be mitigated by additional resources being provided in other areas.

    Not advising Councils until the brink of Christmas of these financial arrangements makes budget planning and setting very difficult.

    Conwy Council raises Council tax year on year by 5% and are going to reduce bin collections to once a month, the first Council to do so in UK
    That's crackers, do they not have something else they can cut ? Bin collections are the one council service pretty much everyone uses.
    And the one they most obviously "feel".
  • Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    JohnO said:



    And as well you know, the Govt is no longer providing any freeze grant.

    What little I do know is that Government funding to local Councils comes from many different pots for many different uses such as capital funding to provide additional school places.

    If, overall, that entire package of funding represents about a half a councils' total Budget, any changes in that allocation are likely to have significant impacts but these may be mitigated by additional resources being provided in other areas.

    Not advising Councils until the brink of Christmas of these financial arrangements makes budget planning and setting very difficult.

    Conwy Council raises Council tax year on year by 5% and are going to reduce bin collections to once a month, the first Council to do so in UK
    That's crackers, do they not have something else they can cut ? Bin collections are the one council service pretty much everyone uses.
    We live in labour Wales
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    JohnO said:



    And as well you know, the Govt is no longer providing any freeze grant.

    What little I do know is that Government funding to local Councils comes from many different pots for many different uses such as capital funding to provide additional school places.

    If, overall, that entire package of funding represents about a half a councils' total Budget, any changes in that allocation are likely to have significant impacts but these may be mitigated by additional resources being provided in other areas.

    Not advising Councils until the brink of Christmas of these financial arrangements makes budget planning and setting very difficult.

    Conwy Council raises Council tax year on year by 5% and are going to reduce bin collections to once a month, the first Council to do so in UK
    That's crackers, do they not have something else they can cut ? Bin collections are the one council service pretty much everyone uses.
    Always seemed to me that bin collections should suit the consumer rather than provider. Thus more collections at Christmas/NY and in summer, but fewer at other times of year. Also more collections for larger households. Me and the other half only put our bins out about once every 3 weeks...
  • Dave comes out fighting in the Torygraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12176325/David-Cameron-Brexit-would-be-gamble-of-the-century.html

    Amazing how important the EU has become to our futures recently. Makes you wonder why he didn't tell us before.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    dr_spyn said:
    Presumably the inference is that Crosby is the Outers' good guy here. But wasn't postponing it what the Outers didn't want? Can someone please explain it to me?
    Crosby could read the runes. The people Cameron needed to get onside for a clear Remain vote - people like me - were not going to be convinced with what Cameron and Osborne had negotiated. It's a shame he couldn't persuade Cameron not to insult the voters' intelligence by saying he had come back with a deal that fundamentally changed our relationship with the EU, but then even Crosby has his limitations...
  • Mohammed Hussain Syeedy, 21, of Ramsay Street, Rochdale, has been charged with murder and conspiracy to commit murder, Greater Manchester Police said.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-35680671

    I am presuming that the coded speculation about it being a racist attack are looking less likely.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    Dave comes out fighting in the Torygraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12176325/David-Cameron-Brexit-would-be-gamble-of-the-century.html

    Amazing how important the EU has become to our futures recently. Makes you wonder why he didn't tell us before.

    Or why he didn't use all that leverage in his negotiations....
  • Dave comes out fighting in the Torygraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12176325/David-Cameron-Brexit-would-be-gamble-of-the-century.html

    Amazing how important the EU has become to our futures recently. Makes you wonder why he didn't tell us before.

    One does wonder where they take the hyperbole from here, given there are four months left.

    We've had global economic armageddon and the biggest risk of the whole 21st Century so far.

    And that's just in week one.
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756

    Dave comes out fighting in the Torygraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12176325/David-Cameron-Brexit-would-be-gamble-of-the-century.html

    Amazing how important the EU has become to our futures recently. Makes you wonder why he didn't tell us before.

    Or why he didn't use all that leverage in his negotiations....
    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    he is completely off-base if he thinks that the EU deal will win it for him, or settle the issue even if he wins.

    If he wins, I don't think the defeated Outers can unseat him, much as they would like to.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    A good film buff friend of mine has done his own Oscar predictions:

    http://cinemainferno-blog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/the-academy-awards-2016-my-predictions.html

    Original Screenplay: Spotlight
    Adapted Screenplay: The Martian
    Visual Effects: Mad Max: Fury Road
    Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu
    Animated Feature: Inside Out
    Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) *
    Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Big Short)
    Leading Actress: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
    Leading Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio
    Best Picture: The Revenant
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.
  • Sean_F said:

    Wanderer said:



    I agree, of course, that Labour is a shambles but I think it could pull itself together, somewhat, with a new leader. We don't really know how popular a left-Labour platform would be with a more prepossessing leader.

    In general the far left is in good shape over most of the west - Jeremy and Bernie are familiar examples of people on the left of their spectrum getting further than expected, but the Irish election also includes a marked shift from Labour to parties further left. If we had PR in Britain, we'd instantly have a social democrat and a socialist party (as well as at least two ex-Tory parties), and I'm not sure the social democrat one would be larger. The view that capitalism doesn't work well is quite widespread, and the social democrat answer "let's tweak it a bit, then" doesn't really inspire.

    In fact, a what-if thread on how PR politics would work out might be a fun exercise on a slow news day. I suspect we'd end up with a Cameroon-social democrat coalition, like Germany.
    Probably a Conservative government with supply and confidence from UKIP.
    Will UKIP even exist after the 23rd June
    The ANC existed after Apartheid ended.
    The Congress Party existed after India gained independence.
  • Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    He's a goner, sooner than he hoped at the very least.

    Couldn't beat Gordon Brown
    Couldn't keep the coalition together
    Couldn't win the Indyref
    Couldn't get a majority

    He's a goner...
    Longstanding political leaders invariably seem invulnerable.

    Until they're not.
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.

    Boris has already said he won't do debates. That's probably wise as he is appallingly bad at them.

  • Sean_F said:

    Dave comes out fighting in the Torygraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12176325/David-Cameron-Brexit-would-be-gamble-of-the-century.html

    Amazing how important the EU has become to our futures recently. Makes you wonder why he didn't tell us before.

    Or why he didn't use all that leverage in his negotiations....
    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    We all know why - he was spooked by UKIP and the Tory right.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.
    Why make such a manifesto commitment, if leaving the EU is so risky?

    Answer, he doesn't really think it's risky at all.
  • Sean_F said:

    Wanderer said:



    I agree, of course, that Labour is a shambles but I think it could pull itself together, somewhat, with a new leader. We don't really know how popular a left-Labour platform would be with a more prepossessing leader.

    In general the far left is in good shape over most of the west - Jeremy and Bernie are familiar examples of people on the left of their spectrum getting further than expected, but the Irish election also includes a marked shift from Labour to parties further left. If we had PR in Britain, we'd instantly have a social democrat and a socialist party (as well as at least two ex-Tory parties), and I'm not sure the social democrat one would be larger. The view that capitalism doesn't work well is quite widespread, and the social democrat answer "let's tweak it a bit, then" doesn't really inspire.

    In fact, a what-if thread on how PR politics would work out might be a fun exercise on a slow news day. I suspect we'd end up with a Cameroon-social democrat coalition, like Germany.
    Probably a Conservative government with supply and confidence from UKIP.
    Will UKIP even exist after the 23rd June
    The ANC existed after Apartheid ended.
    The Congress Party existed after India gained independence.
    Maybe but if we leave what's the point
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    Dave comes out fighting in the Torygraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12176325/David-Cameron-Brexit-would-be-gamble-of-the-century.html

    Amazing how important the EU has become to our futures recently. Makes you wonder why he didn't tell us before.

    One does wonder where they take the hyperbole from here, given there are four months left.

    We've had global economic armageddon and the biggest risk of the whole 21st Century so far.

    And that's just in week one.
    Dr. Venkman has nowhere left to go....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2016

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.
  • Dave comes out fighting in the Torygraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12176325/David-Cameron-Brexit-would-be-gamble-of-the-century.html

    Amazing how important the EU has become to our futures recently. Makes you wonder why he didn't tell us before.

    There are also the comments of Mervyn King.
    "I try to draw him out on the coming referendum. He is cautious: voters need to listen to the arguments and make up their own minds. But then Mervyn King flashes his stiletto: ‘I saw that letter from business leaders this week saying we should stay in. Some of them are the same people who said Britain should adopt the euro. Why on earth should we listen to them?’ "

    "The creation of the euro was ‘technically brilliant’ but politically disastrous, and the single interest rate in the zone means ‘the inevitable loss of competitiveness’. "

    "In Britain, our leaders tell the eurozone to get on with it, but ‘We shouldn’t encourage people to embark on a project for which there is no support in their own populations. It’s not in our interest. It might explode later on.’ "
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.

    By the end of 2017. Why the rush to get a shit deal?
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.
    Perhaps, but if Gove gets the better of Cameron in a debate that'll be a huge story.
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.
    Perhaps, but if Gove gets the better of Cameron in a debate that'll be a huge story.
    Given Cameron wasn't great in 2010 or 2015 set of debates, he probably will, but I don't think it will shift the needle with the public.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited February 2016

    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    He's a goner, sooner than he hoped at the very least.

    Couldn't beat Gordon Brown
    Couldn't keep the coalition together
    Couldn't win the Indyref
    Couldn't get a majority

    He's a goner...
    1. Couldn't beat Gordon Brown
    Against the worst PM in recent history, Cameron achieved a hung parliament.

    2. Couldn't keep the coalition together
    Aided by the self-immolation of the Lib Dems.

    3. Couldn't win the Indyref
    Only just, with a last-minute 'vow'.

    4. Couldn't get a majority
    See (2).

    Don't get me wrong, I think Cameron has done many good things for this country and the Tories. But he is completely off-base if he thinks that the EU deal will win it for him, or settle the issue even if he wins.

    Unclear what will happen to him afterwards, either way.

    Dave, Don't listen to the siren callers - more than half your party.

    The truth lies with us. Always remember, even when it looks bad amongst your friends and many have deserted you, the Socialists are with you !
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

  • Dave comes out fighting in the Torygraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12176325/David-Cameron-Brexit-would-be-gamble-of-the-century.html

    Amazing how important the EU has become to our futures recently. Makes you wonder why he didn't tell us before.

    One does wonder where they take the hyperbole from here, given there are four months left.

    We've had global economic armageddon and the biggest risk of the whole 21st Century so far.

    And that's just in week one.
    Dr. Venkman has nowhere left to go....
    Actually, rewatching it now, it actually seems quite tame compared to Cameron/Osborne's warnings:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfVcvyxLj-s
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.

    By the end of 2017. Why the rush to get a shit deal?
    The Economy. It is coming to a standstill.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Quigg from Bury getting a terible in the Manchester Arena vs Frampton who is from Belfast o_O ?!
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.

    Boris has never really played at this level before though. I just wonder if he'll get the benefit of the doubt when the stakes are seriously high.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Dave comes out fighting in the Torygraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12176325/David-Cameron-Brexit-would-be-gamble-of-the-century.html

    Amazing how important the EU has become to our futures recently. Makes you wonder why he didn't tell us before.

    One does wonder where they take the hyperbole from here, given there are four months left.

    We've had global economic armageddon and the biggest risk of the whole 21st Century so far.

    And that's just in week one.
    Gosh and to think if he hadn't managed to wrangle so much for us by way of his deal, he might have recommended we LEAVE
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
    As I understand it the debates will be similar to question time but one at a time so there would be no direct interaction between DC and Boris/Gove
  • surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.

    By the end of 2017. Why the rush to get a shit deal?
    The Economy. It is coming to a standstill.
    I thought you said that was happening 12 months ago? Is this an annual prediction like a stopped clock eventually getting the right time.
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
    Boris is good for profile, PR, morale, and a set-piece speech.

    But in a debate like this, it'll be about reassurance, exposing hyperbole, calmly dismantling legalistic points, and shooting down warnings of the terrors of the earth to give comfort to middle-class swing voters that Leave is safe.

    Gove will excel at that.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.

    By the end of 2017. Why the rush to get a shit deal?
    The Economy. It is coming to a standstill.
    I thought you said that was happening 12 months ago? Is this an annual prediction like a stopped clock eventually getting the right time.
    Do you live in the real world ? Go and have a look at Manufacturing.
  • Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.
    Why make such a manifesto commitment, if leaving the EU is so risky?

    Answer, he doesn't really think it's risky at all.
    The original plan was to use an EU treaty negotiation during 2016/2017 and the UK's veto over it to get a better deal for the UK, so he'd walk it. There was also no signs of a migration crisis at the time so it didn't seem high-risk.

    On the politics Cameron thought that, if he did win GE2015, he'd be in a coalition with Clegg again so could use that to stack the deck in the referendum and also as an excuse for any renegotiation disappointments, but his backbenchers would reluctantly take it as better than nothing.

    None of those things have happened.
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
    Boris is good for profile, PR, morale, and a set-piece speech.

    But in a debate like this, it'll be about reassurance, exposing hyperbole, calmly dismantling legalistic points, and shooting down warnings of the terrors of the earth to give comfort to middle-class swing voters that Leave is safe.

    Gove will excel at that.
    Leave have to have one convincing answer. Can they stop free movement of labour and if so how. I have not heard an answer to this from anyone in leave
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    edited February 2016


    "The creation of the euro was ‘technically brilliant’ but politically disastrous, and the single interest rate in the zone means ‘the inevitable loss of competitiveness’. "

    For all intents and purposes we've had a single global interest rate in the developed world ever since the financial crisis. It will be very interesting to see how things unfold if tightening in the US continues.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.

    By the end of 2017. Why the rush to get a shit deal?
    The Economy. It is coming to a standstill.
    I thought you said that was happening 12 months ago? Is this an annual prediction like a stopped clock eventually getting the right time.
    Do you live in the real world ? Go and have a look at Manufacturing.
    Yep - and go and have a look at employment levels.

    Domestic consumer economy is incredibly strong at the moment. Strongest I've known since having a consumer facing business (founded '07).
  • If we leave there is a two year notice period. Do we continue paying our 10 billion etc each year for the two years?
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
    Boris is good for profile, PR, morale, and a set-piece speech.

    But in a debate like this, it'll be about reassurance, exposing hyperbole, calmly dismantling legalistic points, and shooting down warnings of the terrors of the earth to give comfort to middle-class swing voters that Leave is safe.

    Gove will excel at that.
    Leave have to have one convincing answer. Can they stop free movement of labour and if so how. I have not heard an answer to this from anyone in leave
    Leave have to reassure on the economy to win.
  • Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.

    By the end of 2017. Why the rush to get a shit deal?
    Dave's "deal" is far worse than that between Darth Vader and Lando Calrissian in The Empire Strikes Back,
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
    Boris is good for profile, PR, morale, and a set-piece speech.

    But in a debate like this, it'll be about reassurance, exposing hyperbole, calmly dismantling legalistic points, and shooting down warnings of the terrors of the earth to give comfort to middle-class swing voters that Leave is safe.

    Gove will excel at that.
    Leave have to have one convincing answer. Can they stop free movement of labour and if so how. I have not heard an answer to this from anyone in leave
    Leave have to reassure on the economy to win.
    Farage started today by trashing the G20 and all those issues warnings. He came over poorly in the interview and is a big minus for leave
  • The deputy chair of the Scottish Parliament's Finance Committee speaks:

    https://twitter.com/johnmasonmsp/status/703699151461203968
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    The Europhiles are running scared:
    ‘He said something innocuous like “Everything OK, Foreign Secretary?” Hammond glared at him, got right up to Bill’s face and hissed, “No, it isn’t! I told you that document was ‘Limité’ [French for ‘restricted’] and that you were not to distribute it. You deliberately ignored me; you are a total s***!”

    ‘Bill was speechless, and Hammond stomped off. It is hardly an appropriate way for a Foreign Secretary to behave. He is clearly rattled.’
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3467459/Tory-meltdown-Foreign-Secretary-hurls-four-letter-abuse-anti-EU-rival-trying-hide-secret-report-PM-s-deal.html
  • MP_SE said:

    The Europhiles are running scared:
    ‘He said something innocuous like “Everything OK, Foreign Secretary?” Hammond glared at him, got right up to Bill’s face and hissed, “No, it isn’t! I told you that document was ‘Limité’ [French for ‘restricted’] and that you were not to distribute it. You deliberately ignored me; you are a total s***!”

    ‘Bill was speechless, and Hammond stomped off. It is hardly an appropriate way for a Foreign Secretary to behave. He is clearly rattled.’
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3467459/Tory-meltdown-Foreign-Secretary-hurls-four-letter-abuse-anti-EU-rival-trying-hide-secret-report-PM-s-deal.html

    If a document is released in confidence it is not unreasonable to be very annoyed if that confidence is broken
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Local news here is reporting that turnout in the S.C. Democratic primary is 'light'. Polls close at 7pm Eastern.

    Turnout for the Republican primary was at record levels.
  • Sean_F said:

    Dave comes out fighting in the Torygraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12176325/David-Cameron-Brexit-would-be-gamble-of-the-century.html

    Amazing how important the EU has become to our futures recently. Makes you wonder why he didn't tell us before.

    Or why he didn't use all that leverage in his negotiations....
    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    We all know why - he was spooked by UKIP and the Tory right.

    Both of whom were sure he'd never get a majority and certainly we were assured cast iron dave would never actually deliver a referendum even if he said he would ... the only way to get one was to vote ukip...

    or not.
  • Sean_F said:

    Dave comes out fighting in the Torygraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12176325/David-Cameron-Brexit-would-be-gamble-of-the-century.html

    Amazing how important the EU has become to our futures recently. Makes you wonder why he didn't tell us before.

    Or why he didn't use all that leverage in his negotiations....
    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    We all know why - he was spooked by UKIP and the Tory right.

    Both of whom were sure he'd never get a majority and certainly we were assured cast iron dave would never actually deliver a referendum even if he said he would ... the only way to get one was to vote ukip...

    or not.
    I suspect our new party is going to get a lot of new members come June the 24th.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    MP_SE said:

    The Europhiles are running scared:
    ‘He said something innocuous like “Everything OK, Foreign Secretary?” Hammond glared at him, got right up to Bill’s face and hissed, “No, it isn’t! I told you that document was ‘Limité’ [French for ‘restricted’] and that you were not to distribute it. You deliberately ignored me; you are a total s***!”

    ‘Bill was speechless, and Hammond stomped off. It is hardly an appropriate way for a Foreign Secretary to behave. He is clearly rattled.’
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3467459/Tory-meltdown-Foreign-Secretary-hurls-four-letter-abuse-anti-EU-rival-trying-hide-secret-report-PM-s-deal.html

    No wonder Hammond was pissed off. Being caught out trying to keep a document like that secret has screwed any chances he had of advancement from the members....
  • Mortimer said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.

    By the end of 2017. Why the rush to get a shit deal?
    The Economy. It is coming to a standstill.
    I thought you said that was happening 12 months ago? Is this an annual prediction like a stopped clock eventually getting the right time.
    Do you live in the real world ? Go and have a look at Manufacturing.
    Yep - and go and have a look at employment levels.

    Domestic consumer economy is incredibly strong at the moment. Strongest I've known since having a consumer facing business (founded '07).
    A trillion pounds of government borrowing does tend to help domestic consumption.

    As does the household savings rate being at its lowest ever level.

    This is what Osborne announced in his 2010 Budget:

    " Our policy is to raise from the ruins of an economy built on debt a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export. "
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
    This is a mega-serious issue not a joke Mayoral post where you play with an overgrown train set. It needs a serious person who can give serious answers. IE Gove.

    The public may not like him so much but will take him seriously. The same can not be said for Boris.
  • Tim_B said:

    Local news here is reporting that turnout in the S.C. Democratic primary is 'light'. Polls close at 7pm Eastern.

    Turnout for the Republican primary was at record levels.

    It seems the biggest driver of turnout is (as ever) a close race. A close race with interesting candidates, all the better. But Clinton's got SC sewnup.
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
    Boris is good for profile, PR, morale, and a set-piece speech.

    But in a debate like this, it'll be about reassurance, exposing hyperbole, calmly dismantling legalistic points, and shooting down warnings of the terrors of the earth to give comfort to middle-class swing voters that Leave is safe.

    Gove will excel at that.
    Leave have to have one convincing answer. Can they stop free movement of labour and if so how. I have not heard an answer to this from anyone in leave
    Leave have to reassure on the economy to win.
    Farage started today by trashing the G20 and all those issues warnings. He came over poorly in the interview and is a big minus for leave
    He should confine himself to motivating and turning out his own base.

    Unfortunately, his ego won't allow him to do that.
  • Mortimer said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.

    By the end of 2017. Why the rush to get a shit deal?
    The Economy. It is coming to a standstill.
    I thought you said that was happening 12 months ago? Is this an annual prediction like a stopped clock eventually getting the right time.
    Do you live in the real world ? Go and have a look at Manufacturing.
    Yep - and go and have a look at employment levels.

    Domestic consumer economy is incredibly strong at the moment. Strongest I've known since having a consumer facing business (founded '07).
    A trillion pounds of government borrowing does tend to help domestic consumption.

    As does the household savings rate being at its lowest ever level.

    This is what Osborne announced in his 2010 Budget:

    " Our policy is to raise from the ruins of an economy built on debt a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export. "
    This is such a broken, repetitive and downright ignorant line.

    The government deficit was priced into the economy many years ago so merely having a deficit does not boost consumption. You need to look at the delta (the change) in government spending. The change has been the government deficit coming down each year so that is a negative on growth not a boost.

    The economies growth is happening despite government spending levels not because of it.
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
    Boris is good for profile, PR, morale, and a set-piece speech.

    But in a debate like this, it'll be about reassurance, exposing hyperbole, calmly dismantling legalistic points, and shooting down warnings of the terrors of the earth to give comfort to middle-class swing voters that Leave is safe.

    Gove will excel at that.
    Leave have to have one convincing answer. Can they stop free movement of labour and if so how. I have not heard an answer to this from anyone in leave
    Leave have to reassure on the economy to win.
    Farage started today by trashing the G20 and all those issues warnings. He came over poorly in the interview and is a big minus for leave
    He should confine himself to motivating and turning out his own base.

    Unfortunately, his ego won't allow him to do that.
    And the tie is dreadful. He even admitted it to the interviewer
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited February 2016

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
    Boris is good for profile, PR, morale, and a set-piece speech.

    But in a debate like this, it'll be about reassurance, exposing hyperbole, calmly dismantling legalistic points, and shooting down warnings of the terrors of the earth to give comfort to middle-class swing voters that Leave is safe.

    Gove will excel at that.
    Leave have to have one convincing answer. Can they stop free movement of labour and if so how. I have not heard an answer to this from anyone in leave
    Leave have to reassure on the economy to win.
    Farage started today by trashing the G20 and all those issues warnings. He came over poorly in the interview and is a big minus for leave
    And I see Nigel Lawson has now entered the fray. Isn't it time someone got a grip? The leavers leaders are starting to look like a freaks circus. in my opinion this will be decided by the side that has the most convincing advocates and opening the crypts for Climate change deniers like Lawson from Thatcher's team is not the way to go
  • MP_SE said:

    The Europhiles are running scared:
    ‘He said something innocuous like “Everything OK, Foreign Secretary?” Hammond glared at him, got right up to Bill’s face and hissed, “No, it isn’t! I told you that document was ‘Limité’ [French for ‘restricted’] and that you were not to distribute it. You deliberately ignored me; you are a total s***!”

    ‘Bill was speechless, and Hammond stomped off. It is hardly an appropriate way for a Foreign Secretary to behave. He is clearly rattled.’
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3467459/Tory-meltdown-Foreign-Secretary-hurls-four-letter-abuse-anti-EU-rival-trying-hide-secret-report-PM-s-deal.html
    If a document is released in confidence it is not unreasonable to be very annoyed if that confidence is broken

    Breaking confidences is very bad form any anyone has a right to be annoyed if that happens.

    Then again, government's notoriously leak like a sieve.
  • Roger said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
    Boris is good for profile, PR, morale, and a set-piece speech.

    But in a debate like this, it'll be about reassurance, exposing hyperbole, calmly dismantling legalistic points, and shooting down warnings of the terrors of the earth to give comfort to middle-class swing voters that Leave is safe.

    Gove will excel at that.
    Leave have to have one convincing answer. Can they stop free movement of labour and if so how. I have not heard an answer to this from anyone in leave
    Leave have to reassure on the economy to win.
    Farage started today by trashing the G20 and all those issues warnings. He came over poorly in the interview and is a big minus for leave
    And I see Nigel Lawson has now entered the fray. Isn't it time someone got a grip? The leavers leaders are starting to look like a freaks circus. in my opinion this will be decided by the side that has the most convincing advocates and opening the crypts for Climate change deniers like Lawson from Thatcher's team is not the way to go
    One of the most successful Chancellor's this nation has ever had is not a freak.
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
    This is a mega-serious issue not a joke Mayoral post where you play with an overgrown train set.
    RACISM against people wot like trains!
  • runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    ‘I saw that letter from business leaders this week saying we should stay in. Some of them are the same people who said Britain should adopt the euro. Why on earth should we listen to them?’ "

    Why indeed.
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
    This is a mega-serious issue not a joke Mayoral post where you play with an overgrown train set.
    RACISM against people wot like trains!
    People wot like trains aren't a race, they're a sub-race.
  • Mortimer said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.

    By the end of 2017. Why the rush to get a shit deal?
    The Economy. It is coming to a standstill.
    I thought you said that was happening 12 months ago? Is this an annual prediction like a stopped clock eventually getting the right time.
    Do you live in the real world ? Go and have a look at Manufacturing.
    Yep - and go and have a look at employment levels.

    Domestic consumer economy is incredibly strong at the moment. Strongest I've known since having a consumer facing business (founded '07).
    A trillion pounds of government borrowing does tend to help domestic consumption.

    As does the household savings rate being at its lowest ever level.

    This is what Osborne announced in his 2010 Budget:

    " Our policy is to raise from the ruins of an economy built on debt a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export. "
    This is such a broken, repetitive and downright ignorant line.

    The government deficit was priced into the economy many years ago so merely having a deficit does not boost consumption. You need to look at the delta (the change) in government spending. The change has been the government deficit coming down each year so that is a negative on growth not a boost.

    The economies growth is happening despite government spending levels not because of it.
    'another richards' wording is thick. We do not have a trillion borrowing we have about what 70bn borrowing and falling. We have a govt cutting its spending.
  • MP_SE said:

    The Europhiles are running scared:
    ‘He said something innocuous like “Everything OK, Foreign Secretary?” Hammond glared at him, got right up to Bill’s face and hissed, “No, it isn’t! I told you that document was ‘Limité’ [French for ‘restricted’] and that you were not to distribute it. You deliberately ignored me; you are a total s***!”

    ‘Bill was speechless, and Hammond stomped off. It is hardly an appropriate way for a Foreign Secretary to behave. He is clearly rattled.’
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3467459/Tory-meltdown-Foreign-Secretary-hurls-four-letter-abuse-anti-EU-rival-trying-hide-secret-report-PM-s-deal.html
    If a document is released in confidence it is not unreasonable to be very annoyed if that confidence is broken
    Breaking confidences is very bad form any anyone has a right to be annoyed if that happens.

    Then again, government's notoriously leak like a sieve.

    Yes.

    To be honest, though, I'm not quite sure what Hammond expected giving Bill Cash a government paper on its legal advice on the EU and asking him to keep it a secret.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062

    MP_SE said:

    The Europhiles are running scared:
    ‘He said something innocuous like “Everything OK, Foreign Secretary?” Hammond glared at him, got right up to Bill’s face and hissed, “No, it isn’t! I told you that document was ‘Limité’ [French for ‘restricted’] and that you were not to distribute it. You deliberately ignored me; you are a total s***!”

    ‘Bill was speechless, and Hammond stomped off. It is hardly an appropriate way for a Foreign Secretary to behave. He is clearly rattled.’
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3467459/Tory-meltdown-Foreign-Secretary-hurls-four-letter-abuse-anti-EU-rival-trying-hide-secret-report-PM-s-deal.html
    No wonder Hammond was pissed off. Being caught out trying to keep a document like that secret has screwed any chances he had of advancement from the members....

    Did you read the article? Hammond sent it to Cash with a note that it wasn't for public consumption. What a duplicitous way for Cash to behave!
  • Mortimer said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.

    By the end of 2017. Why the rush to get a shit deal?
    The Economy. It is coming to a standstill.
    I thought you said that was happening 12 months ago? Is this an annual prediction like a stopped clock eventually getting the right time.
    Do you live in the real world ? Go and have a look at Manufacturing.
    Yep - and go and have a look at employment levels.

    Domestic consumer economy is incredibly strong at the moment. Strongest I've known since having a consumer facing business (founded '07).
    A trillion pounds of government borrowing does tend to help domestic consumption.

    As does the household savings rate being at its lowest ever level.

    This is what Osborne announced in his 2010 Budget:

    " Our policy is to raise from the ruins of an economy built on debt a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export. "
    This is such a broken, repetitive and downright ignorant line.

    The government deficit was priced into the economy many years ago so merely having a deficit does not boost consumption. You need to look at the delta (the change) in government spending. The change has been the government deficit coming down each year so that is a negative on growth not a boost.

    The economies growth is happening despite government spending levels not because of it.
    'another richards' wording is thick. We do not have a trillion borrowing we have about what 70bn borrowing and falling. We have a govt cutting its spending.
    Our national debt is well over a trillion pounds.

    Our deficit (what we add to the national debt each year) is c.75bn, and falling.

    This isn't hard.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2016
    Jonathan Portes, pro mass immigration researcher, on Fridays Daily Politics on how the government refused to let him see the real immigration numbers 'because they could mess up Daves renegotiation' and then refused to let him see them afterwards 'because it would cost £2,000'

    £2k? That's not even four cheap suits!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0725m33/daily-politics-26022016
  • Dave comes out fighting in the Torygraph:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/12176325/David-Cameron-Brexit-would-be-gamble-of-the-century.html

    Amazing how important the EU has become to our futures recently. Makes you wonder why he didn't tell us before.

    One does wonder where they take the hyperbole from here, given there are four months left.

    We've had global economic armageddon and the biggest risk of the whole 21st Century so far.

    And that's just in week one.
    Dr. Venkman has nowhere left to go....
    Actually, rewatching it now, it actually seems quite tame compared to Cameron/Osborne's warnings:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfVcvyxLj-s
    At least the crazed loon in the picture is wearing a proper tie.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited February 2016

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
    Boris is good for profile, PR, morale, and a set-piece speech.

    But in a debate like this, it'll be about reassurance, exposing hyperbole, calmly dismantling legalistic points, and shooting down warnings of the terrors of the earth to give comfort to middle-class swing voters that Leave is safe.

    Gove will excel at that.
    Leave have to have one convincing answer. Can they stop free movement of labour and if so how. I have not heard an answer to this from anyone in leave
    Leave have to reassure on the economy to win.
    Farage started today by trashing the G20 and all those issues warnings. He came over poorly in the interview and is a big minus for leave
    And I see Nigel Lawson has now entered the fray. Isn't it time someone got a grip? The leavers leaders are starting to look like a freaks circus. in my opinion this will be decided by the side that has the most convincing advocates and opening the crypts for Climate change deniers like Lawson from Thatcher's team is not the way to go
    One of the most successful Chancellor's this nation has ever had is not a freak.
    Is that why Thatcher sacked him? Or was it interest rates at 15% after linking to the DM?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    edited February 2016
    Roger said:

    MP_SE said:

    The Europhiles are running scared:
    ‘He said something innocuous like “Everything OK, Foreign Secretary?” Hammond glared at him, got right up to Bill’s face and hissed, “No, it isn’t! I told you that document was ‘Limité’ [French for ‘restricted’] and that you were not to distribute it. You deliberately ignored me; you are a total s***!”

    ‘Bill was speechless, and Hammond stomped off. It is hardly an appropriate way for a Foreign Secretary to behave. He is clearly rattled.’
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3467459/Tory-meltdown-Foreign-Secretary-hurls-four-letter-abuse-anti-EU-rival-trying-hide-secret-report-PM-s-deal.html
    No wonder Hammond was pissed off. Being caught out trying to keep a document like that secret has screwed any chances he had of advancement from the members....
    Did you read the article? Hammond sent it to Cash with a note that it wasn't for public consumption. What a duplicitous way for Cash to behave!

    Hammond passed Cash a box of political dynamite and a box of matches. If our Foreign Secretary is THAT naive....heaven help us.
  • The morning thread is for PB classicists
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2016
    Taken 9 rounds. Now this is a proper tear up now in the boxing.
  • Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
    Boris is good for profile, PR, morale, and a set-piece speech.

    But in a debate like this, it'll be about reassurance, exposing hyperbole, calmly dismantling legalistic points, and shooting down warnings of the terrors of the earth to give comfort to middle-class swing voters that Leave is safe.

    Gove will excel at that.
    Leave have to have one convincing answer. Can they stop free movement of labour and if so how. I have not heard an answer to this from anyone in leave
    Leave have to reassure on the economy to win.
    Farage started today by trashing the G20 and all those issues warnings. He came over poorly in the interview and is a big minus for leave
    And I see Nigel Lawson has now entered the fray. Isn't it time someone got a grip? The leavers leaders are starting to look like a freaks circus. in my opinion this will be decided by the side that has the most convincing advocates and opening the crypts for Climate change deniers like Lawson from Thatcher's team is not the way to go
    One of the most successful Chancellor's this nation has ever had is not a freak.
    Is that why Thatcher sacked him?
    She didn't, Lawson resigned.
  • Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.

    It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
    The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.

    Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.

    He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.

    I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
    Boris is good for profile, PR, morale, and a set-piece speech.

    But in a debate like this, it'll be about reassurance, exposing hyperbole, calmly dismantling legalistic points, and shooting down warnings of the terrors of the earth to give comfort to middle-class swing voters that Leave is safe.

    Gove will excel at that.
    Leave have to have one convincing answer. Can they stop free movement of labour and if so how. I have not heard an answer to this from anyone in leave
    Leave have to reassure on the economy to win.
    Farage started today by trashing the G20 and all those issues warnings. He came over poorly in the interview and is a big minus for leave
    And I see Nigel Lawson has now entered the fray. Isn't it time someone got a grip? The leavers leaders are starting to look like a freaks circus. in my opinion this will be decided by the side that has the most convincing advocates and opening the crypts for Climate change deniers like Lawson from Thatcher's team is not the way to go
    One of the most successful Chancellor's this nation has ever had is not a freak.
    Is that why Thatcher sacked him? Or was it interest rates at 15% after linking to the DM?
    Technically he resigned.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Except the QT debate won't be a head to head.

    It'll be like the GE QT - Cameron on stage on his own taking questions and then someone from Leave doing the same separately.
  • Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    That'll be Gove then :-)

    Either way, though, it will be worth watching!

    Are Vote Leave the official body then of the three available?
    And who in Vote Leave said this? Who is the leader of vote Leave. Shouldn't the leader debate?
  • Like to see Nicola Sturgeon v Gove or Boris
  • Mortimer said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.

    By the end of 2017. Why the rush to get a shit deal?
    The Economy. It is coming to a standstill.
    I thought you said that was happening 12 months ago? Is this an annual prediction like a stopped clock eventually getting the right time.
    Do you live in the real world ? Go and have a look at Manufacturing.
    Yep - and go and have a look at employment levels.

    Domestic consumer economy is incredibly strong at the moment. Strongest I've known since having a consumer facing business (founded '07).
    A trillion pounds of government borrowing does tend to help domestic consumption.

    As does the household savings rate being at its lowest ever level.

    This is what Osborne announced in his 2010 Budget:

    " Our policy is to raise from the ruins of an economy built on debt a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export. "
    This is such a broken, repetitive and downright ignorant line.

    The government deficit was priced into the economy many years ago so merely having a deficit does not boost consumption. You need to look at the delta (the change) in government spending. The change has been the government deficit coming down each year so that is a negative on growth not a boost.

    The economies growth is happening despite government spending levels not because of it.
    'another richards' wording is thick. We do not have a trillion borrowing we have about what 70bn borrowing and falling. We have a govt cutting its spending.
    Perhaps you'd like to tell us how much the government has borrowed during the last decade.
  • Mortimer said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.

    By the end of 2017. Why the rush to get a shit deal?
    The Economy. It is coming to a standstill.
    I thought you said that was happening 12 months ago? Is this an annual prediction like a stopped clock eventually getting the right time.
    Do you live in the real world ? Go and have a look at Manufacturing.
    Yep - and go and have a look at employment levels.

    Domestic consumer economy is incredibly strong at the moment. Strongest I've known since having a consumer facing business (founded '07).
    A trillion pounds of government borrowing does tend to help domestic consumption.

    As does the household savings rate being at its lowest ever level.

    This is what Osborne announced in his 2010 Budget:

    " Our policy is to raise from the ruins of an economy built on debt a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export. "
    This is such a broken, repetitive and downright ignorant line.

    The government deficit was priced into the economy many years ago so merely having a deficit does not boost consumption. You need to look at the delta (the change) in government spending. The change has been the government deficit coming down each year so that is a negative on growth not a boost.

    The economies growth is happening despite government spending levels not because of it.
    'another richards' wording is thick. We do not have a trillion borrowing we have about what 70bn borrowing and falling. We have a govt cutting its spending.
    Perhaps you'd like to tell us how much the government has borrowed during the last decade.
    The govt has been cutting its spending for the last 6 years and has raised VAT for instance to 20%.
  • MikeL said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Except the QT debate won't be a head to head.

    It'll be like the GE QT - Cameron on stage on his own taking questions and then someone from Leave doing the same separately.
    There's one final event a few days before the vote at Wembley arena that could well be a head to head.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,172

    The deputy chair of the Scottish Parliament's Finance Committee speaks:

    https://twitter.com/johnmasonmsp/status/703699151461203968

    I see that has been deleted ;)
  • MikeL said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Except the QT debate won't be a head to head.

    It'll be like the GE QT - Cameron on stage on his own taking questions and then someone from Leave doing the same separately.
    There's one final event a few days before the vote at Wembley arena that could well be a head to head.
    Cameron won't debate head to head
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740

    MikeL said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Except the QT debate won't be a head to head.

    It'll be like the GE QT - Cameron on stage on his own taking questions and then someone from Leave doing the same separately.
    There's one final event a few days before the vote at Wembley arena that could well be a head to head.
    I know - but Cameron won't do that one.

    We can't know for sure - but let's wait and see!
  • Mortimer said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.

    By the end of 2017. Why the rush to get a shit deal?
    The Economy. It is coming to a standstill.
    I thought you said that was happening 12 months ago? Is this an annual prediction like a stopped clock eventually getting the right time.
    Do you live in the real world ? Go and have a look at Manufacturing.
    Yep - and go and have a look at employment levels.

    Domestic consumer economy is incredibly strong at the moment. Strongest I've known since having a consumer facing business (founded '07).
    A trillion pounds of government borrowing does tend to help domestic consumption.

    As does the household savings rate being at its lowest ever level.

    This is what Osborne announced in his 2010 Budget:

    " Our policy is to raise from the ruins of an economy built on debt a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export. "
    This is such a broken, repetitive and downright ignorant line.

    The government deficit was priced into the economy many years ago so merely having a deficit does not boost consumption. You need to look at the delta (the change) in government spending. The change has been the government deficit coming down each year so that is a negative on growth not a boost.

    The economies growth is happening despite government spending levels not because of it.
    Government borrowing is higher now than it was before the recession.

    The government is therefore choosing to pump more borrowed money into the economy than Gordon Brown ever did as Chancellor.

    Perhaps you'd like to give us your views on how well the government's plan to create 'a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export' is going ?

    You can mention the current account deficit, productivity, GDP per head and industrial production if you'd like.

  • MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Except the QT debate won't be a head to head.

    It'll be like the GE QT - Cameron on stage on his own taking questions and then someone from Leave doing the same separately.
    There's one final event a few days before the vote at Wembley arena that could well be a head to head.
    I know - but Cameron won't do that one.

    We can't know for sure - but let's wait and see!
    Well I've just done the morning thread on the assumption Cameron will do the debate.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Polls about to close in South Carolina where the Democratic primary is taking place.

    Exit poll shows 61% of voters are African-American:

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-south-carolina-democratic-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37241467
  • MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Except the QT debate won't be a head to head.

    It'll be like the GE QT - Cameron on stage on his own taking questions and then someone from Leave doing the same separately.
    There's one final event a few days before the vote at Wembley arena that could well be a head to head.
    y

    I know - but Cameron won't do that one.

    We can't know for sure - but let's wait and see!
    Well I've just done the morning thread on the assumption Cameron will do the debate.
    He would be acting out of character and against his instinct. Also who has agreed to these debates.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,740
    edited February 2016

    MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Except the QT debate won't be a head to head.

    It'll be like the GE QT - Cameron on stage on his own taking questions and then someone from Leave doing the same separately.
    There's one final event a few days before the vote at Wembley arena that could well be a head to head.
    I know - but Cameron won't do that one.

    We can't know for sure - but let's wait and see!
    Well I've just done the morning thread on the assumption Cameron will do the debate.
    Remember the GE - he did Paxman on C4 with Miliband separately and then he did QT with Miliband and Clegg separately.

    Yes - I know he did the 7 person debate but that was as far away as possible from a head to head.

    It's very, very, very unlikely he'll agree to do any head to head - and even less likely that he would do one vs another Conservative.

    Great fun speculating and for someone to start tweeting but completely unrealistic I am afraid.
  • Mortimer said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.

    It was a manifesto commitment.

    By the end of 2017. Why the rush to get a shit deal?
    The Economy. It is coming to a standstill.
    I thought you said that was happening 12 months ago? Is this an annual prediction like a stopped clock eventually getting the right time.
    Do you live in the real world ? Go and have a look at Manufacturing.
    Yep - and go and have a look at employment levels.

    Domestic consumer economy is incredibly strong at the moment. Strongest I've known since having a consumer facing business (founded '07).
    A trillion pounds of government borrowing does tend to help domestic consumption.

    As does the household savings rate being at its lowest ever level.

    This is what Osborne announced in his 2010 Budget:

    " Our policy is to raise from the ruins of an economy built on debt a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export. "
    This is such a broken, repetitive and downright ignorant line.

    The government deficit was priced into the economy many years ago so merely having a deficit does not boost consumption. You need to look at the delta (the change) in government spending. The change has been the government deficit coming down each year so that is a negative on growth not a boost.

    The economies growth is happening despite government spending levels not because of it.
    'another richards' wording is thick. We do not have a trillion borrowing we have about what 70bn borrowing and falling. We have a govt cutting its spending.
    Perhaps you'd like to tell us how much the government has borrowed during the last decade.
    The govt has been cutting its spending for the last 6 years and has raised VAT for instance to 20%.
    So you don't want to admit that the government has borrowed over a trillion pounds in the last decade.


  • MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Except the QT debate won't be a head to head.

    It'll be like the GE QT - Cameron on stage on his own taking questions and then someone from Leave doing the same separately.
    There's one final event a few days before the vote at Wembley arena that could well be a head to head.
    y

    I know - but Cameron won't do that one.

    We can't know for sure - but let's wait and see!
    Well I've just done the morning thread on the assumption Cameron will do the debate.
    He would be acting out of character and against his instinct. Also who has agreed to these debates.
    He was eventually bounced into the GE debates.
  • MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Except the QT debate won't be a head to head.

    It'll be like the GE QT - Cameron on stage on his own taking questions and then someone from Leave doing the same separately.
    There's one final event a few days before the vote at Wembley arena that could well be a head to head.
    y

    I know - but Cameron won't do that one.

    We can't know for sure - but let's wait and see!
    Well I've just done the morning thread on the assumption Cameron will do the debate.
    He would be acting out of character and against his instinct. Also who has agreed to these debates.
    He was eventually bounced into the GE debates.
    Only the one with seven. He did not do any other head to heads
  • The morning thread is for PB classicists

    AV? Be still my beating heart!
  • MikeL said:

    MikeL said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave

    Except the QT debate won't be a head to head.

    It'll be like the GE QT - Cameron on stage on his own taking questions and then someone from Leave doing the same separately.
    There's one final event a few days before the vote at Wembley arena that could well be a head to head.
    y

    I know - but Cameron won't do that one.

    We can't know for sure - but let's wait and see!
    Well I've just done the morning thread on the assumption Cameron will do the debate.
    He would be acting out of character and against his instinct. Also who has agreed to these debates.
    He was eventually bounced into the GE debates.
    Only the one with seven. He did not do any other head to heads
    But the election involved several sides/parties.

    This referendum only has two sides, Remain and Leave.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    I'm surprised that there isn't a single ad campaign for either side yet. There seem to be a few ad hoc affairs like this from Ryanair and a rather bizarre condom one for Brexiit "It's riskier to stay in" which seems a poor use of a potentially interesting idea

    http://www.marketingmagazine.co.uk/article/1384925/ryanair-launches-marketing-campaign-against-eu-brexit
  • RobD said:

    The deputy chair of the Scottish Parliament's Finance Committee speaks:

    https://twitter.com/johnmasonmsp/status/703699151461203968

    I see that has been deleted ;)
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcP2bWXW4AApakj.jpg
This discussion has been closed.