@ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave
Except the QT debate won't be a head to head.
It'll be like the GE QT - Cameron on stage on his own taking questions and then someone from Leave doing the same separately.
There's one final event a few days before the vote at Wembley arena that could well be a head to head.
ISTR the BBC said that would have 3 reps per side.
If there are 3 per side it will be hard to prevent Farage taking part, therefore it will be easy to expose the lack of consensus about what follows a Leave vote.
And begs the question why he's holding this Referendum.
It was a manifesto commitment.
By the end of 2017. Why the rush to get a shit deal?
The Economy. It is coming to a standstill.
I thought you said that was happening 12 months ago? Is this an annual prediction like a stopped clock eventually getting the right time.
Do you live in the real world ? Go and have a look at Manufacturing.
Yep - and go and have a look at employment levels.
Domestic consumer economy is incredibly strong at the moment. Strongest I've known since having a consumer facing business (founded '07).
A trillion pounds of government borrowing does tend to help domestic consumption.
As does the household savings rate being at its lowest ever level.
This is what Osborne announced in his 2010 Budget:
" Our policy is to raise from the ruins of an economy built on debt a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export. "
This is such a broken, repetitive and downright ignorant line.
The government deficit was priced into the economy many years ago so merely having a deficit does not boost consumption. You need to look at the delta (the change) in government spending. The change has been the government deficit coming down each year so that is a negative on growth not a boost.
The economies growth is happening despite government spending levels not because of it.
'another richards' wording is thick. We do not have a trillion borrowing we have about what 70bn borrowing and falling. We have a govt cutting its spending.
Perhaps you'd like to tell us how much the government has borrowed during the last decade.
The govt has been cutting its spending for the last 6 years and has raised VAT for instance to 20%.
Except that current government spending has been increasing:
Bernie Sanders, currently in the air on his way from Texas to Minnesota, has issued a statement on the result in South Carolina. Despite the defeat, he says: “This campaign is just beginning”.
Bernie Sanders, currently in the air on his way from Texas to Minnesota, has issued a statement on the result in South Carolina. Despite the defeat, he says: “This campaign is just beginning”.
A trillion pounds of government borrowing does tend to help domestic consumption.
As does the household savings rate being at its lowest ever level.
This is what Osborne announced in his 2010 Budget:
" Our policy is to raise from the ruins of an economy built on debt a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export. "
This is such a broken, repetitive and downright ignorant line.
The government deficit was priced into the economy many years ago so merely having a deficit does not boost consumption. You need to look at the delta (the change) in government spending. The change has been the government deficit coming down each year so that is a negative on growth not a boost.
The economies growth is happening despite government spending levels not because of it.
Government borrowing is higher now than it was before the recession.
The government is therefore choosing to pump more borrowed money into the economy than Gordon Brown ever did as Chancellor.
Perhaps you'd like to give us your views on how well the government's plan to create 'a new, balanced economy where we save, invest and export' is going ?
You can mention the current account deficit, productivity, GDP per head and industrial production if you'd like.
Government borrowing has fallen every year. To suggest otherwise is an outright falsehood. Scorecard
Save: Positive. Household debt to GDP which had risen every single year from 1997 to 2010 peaking around 100% of GDP has fallen every year under this government getting down to about a thirteen year low: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/households-debt-to-gdp As well as household debt falling, the Government deficit has fallen every year under this government.
Invest: Positive Business investments and business start ups are both running strong
Export: Mixed Exports have been hit by the ongoing Eurozone crisis but while exports to the Eurozone have fallen, exports to the rest of world have risen. Overall exports are flatlining at a record high.
Brussels is temporarily pulling the plug on plans to ban high-powered kettles and toasters in order to avoid giving anti-EU campaigners fresh ammunition in the Britain’s “Brexit” referendum, it was reported today."
@ShippersUnbound: Boris or Gove will go head to head with Cameron in big Question Time debate in June says Vote Leave
Wow. I reckon it should be Gove.
It'll be far harder for Cameron to deal with.
The main problem with using Gove is the public take a dislike to him. He is smart, articulate, normally knows his stuff inside out, but the public just don't take to him.
Boris, goes wiffle, waffle, hazzzah, cripes, often answers the question badly e.g. London Mayoral debates, but people go ohhh buts its that big teddy bear Boris.
He was terrible in the mayoral debates, but he was up against Ken and it was a relatively unimportant contest. An EU debate against Dave would be a huge step up in which shucks, errr, oh you know will not do.
I am not advocating Boris will best Cameron either. Just saying that Boris somehow gets the benefit of the doubt, Gove is the opposite, when it comes to public reaction.
This is a mega-serious issue not a joke Mayoral post where you play with an overgrown train set.
RACISM against people wot like trains!
People wot like trains aren't a race, they're a sub-race.
Government borrowing has fallen every year. To suggest otherwise is an outright falsehood. Scorecard
Save: Positive. Household debt to GDP which had risen every single year from 1997 to 2010 peaking around 100% of GDP has fallen every year under this government getting down to about a thirteen year low: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/households-debt-to-gdp As well as household debt falling, the Government deficit has fallen every year under this government.
Invest: Positive Business investments and business start ups are both running strong
Export: Mixed Exports have been hit by the ongoing Eurozone crisis but while exports to the Eurozone have fallen, exports to the rest of world have risen. Overall exports are flatlining at a record high.
Government borrowing hasn't fallen every year - it was higher in 2012/13 than in 2011/12 - it is also way in excess of what Osborne predicted it would be in his 2010 Budget as is government debt as a percentage of GDP.
Houshold debt has fallen marginally as that graph shows - which is a good thing but ironically NOT what the government wanted. You also make no mention of household saving - which is at a record low.
'Business investments and business start ups are both running strong' - meaningless claims of the sort Brown and Osborne have both used.
Exports - Osborne announced a target of a trillion pounds of export by 2020. In reality it is flatlining at half that.
And predictably no mention of the current account deficit, productivity, GDP per head and industrial production.
When it comes down to it Osborne has attempted to recreate the Brownian economy - debt fuelled consumption based on rising house prices and government subsidies to favoured voting groups.
But he's winning with some of the demographics who'll decide the election in November.
Which is good news for Trump if he's facing Hillary.
Not many white liberals who voted for Sanders will vote for Trump even in South Carolina
Trump will get all the Trump-Sanders waverers now as the Democrat contest is pretty much over. Trump-Sanders is an actual thing, people who want to fuck up the system basically.
Brussels is temporarily pulling the plug on plans to ban high-powered kettles and toasters in order to avoid giving anti-EU campaigners fresh ammunition in the Britain’s “Brexit” referendum, it was reported today."
Brussels is temporarily pulling the plug on plans to ban high-powered kettles and toasters in order to avoid giving anti-EU campaigners fresh ammunition in the Britain’s “Brexit” referendum, it was reported today."
She remains a pretty awful public speaker though...
Totally uninspired. I'm intending to set my book up as +~0 Hillary +~1.5k Trump come the General and I'm going to need to see some real evidence to start backing her at most likely odds on.
Government borrowing hasn't fallen every year - it was higher in 2012/13 than in 2011/12 - it is also way in excess of what Osborne predicted it would be in his 2010 Budget as is government debt as a percentage of GDP.
Houshold debt has fallen marginally as that graph shows - which is a good thing but ironically NOT what the government wanted. You also make no mention of household saving - which is at a record low.
'Business investments and business start ups are both running strong' - meaningless claims of the sort Brown and Osborne have both used.
Exports - Osborne announced a target of a trillion pounds of export by 2020. In reality it is flatlining at half that.
And predictably no mention of the current account deficit, productivity, GDP per head and industrial production.
When it comes down to it Osborne has attempted to recreate the Brownian economy - debt fuelled consumption based on rising house prices and government subsidies to favoured voting groups.
Yes government borrowing marginally increased by 0.2% of GDP in 2012/13 before coming back down year on year again.
Household debt has not fallen marginally, a thirteen year low is quite a significant fall. From a peak of 99.5% of GDP to now 85.9% and still falling - and falling at its fastest rate currently. Quite a reversal from an ever higher increase in household debt previously. A true rebalancing of the economy.
Exports I said was mixed and don't see anything you've said to counter that. The target is being missed which is hardly surprising in this current business environment where our major trading partner is struggling much more than expected.
No need to mention those as they're not what was discussed. What was discussed I have mentioned. You asked about savings, investment and exports and I mentioned savings, investment and exports. Shock horror! Maybe I should make up some bulls**t nominal figures that show an increase where real figures show a decrease and scream increase like you do?
But he's winning with some of the demographics who'll decide the election in November.
Which is good news for Trump if he's facing Hillary.
Not many white liberals who voted for Sanders will vote for Trump even in South Carolina
Trump will get all the Trump-Sanders waverers now as the Democrat contest is pretty much over. Trump-Sanders is an actual thing, people who want to fuck up the system basically.
Trump Sanders waverers are about 0.5% of the electorate in the US, it is like Green UKIP waverers in the UK! At worst they might abstain, most Sanders voters will hold their nose and vote for Hillary, very few will vote for Trump
"Investment at the highest level since 2000" at running at "104% [of retained profits], which is well above the average of 85% recorded since records began".
" UK business investment has performed impressively in recent years, substantially outgrowing other components of GDP since 2010, he said. Business investment is expected to rise by an average of 6.4pc a year until the end of the decade, when it is forecast to reach a record high of 12.9pc of GDP.
EY said this would be helped by Britain's business-friendly environment. Corporation tax is on course to fall to 18pc by 2020, from 28pc in 2010. "
But chicken licken can't tell the difference between real and nominal terms so savings and investment must be awful and the sky falling.
Yes government borrowing marginally increased by 0.2% of GDP in 2012/13 before coming back down year on year again.
Household debt has not fallen marginally, a thirteen year low is quite a significant fall. From a peak of 99.5% of GDP to now 85.9% and still falling - and falling at its fastest rate currently. Quite a reversal from an ever higher increase in household debt previously. A true rebalancing of the economy.
Exports I said was mixed and don't see anything you've said to counter that. The target is being missed which is hardly surprising in this current business environment where our major trading partner is struggling much more than expected.
No need to mention those as they're not what was discussed. What was discussed I have mentioned. You asked about savings, investment and exports and I mentioned savings, investment and exports. Shock horror! Maybe I should make up some bulls**t nominal figures that show an increase where real figures show a decrease and scream increase like you do?
You seem to be frothing at the mouth - time to go to bed perhaps ?
And can't you find anything more recent to back up your argument than a six month old report in the Guardian ?
This is from the Guardian of last Thursday:
"The GDP report also shows that UK firms reined in their spending in the last quarter.
The ONS says that business investment shrank by 2.1% in the October-December period, the biggest drop in almost two years."
"Britain’s trade balance is rarely a pretty sight, as the country sucks in more goods than it sells to the rest of the world.
And today’s growth report shows that the deficit has widened again, from £14.7bn in Quarter 3 2015 to £16.6bn in the fourth quarter."
"Britain’s economic recovery is rather less impressive once you adjust for population changes.
On a per capita basis, GDP only grew by 0.3% in the last quarter. And on that measure, the economy is barely larger than in 2008 - before the financial crisis struck."
The most interesting thing about the South Carolina primary may be the turnout since it'll give an indication of how enthusiastic Democratic voters are this year.
The most interesting thing about the South Carolina primary may be the turnout since it'll give an indication of how enthusiastic Democratic voters are this year.
The Democrats have not won South Carolina since 1976, Super Tuesday will be a better indicator
" UK business investment has performed impressively in recent years, substantially outgrowing other components of GDP since 2010, he said. Business investment is expected to rise by an average of 6.4pc a year until the end of the decade, when it is forecast to reach a record high of 12.9pc of GDP.
EY said this would be helped by Britain's business-friendly environment. Corporation tax is on course to fall to 18pc by 2020, from 28pc in 2010. "
But chicken licken can't tell the difference between real and nominal terms so savings and investment must be awful and the sky falling.
Your frothing is getting more shrill.
Household savings rates are at a record low, investment rates should be rising very strongly at this stage of the economic cycle.
And you still don't want to mention the current account deficit, productivity, GDP per head and industrial production.
Perhaps instead you could remind us of how much Osborne said government borrowing would be in his 2010 Budget and how much it actually has been.
The most interesting thing about the South Carolina primary may be the turnout since it'll give an indication of how enthusiastic Democratic voters are this year.
How did the Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada turnouts compare with 2008 and 2000 ?
" UK business investment has performed impressively in recent years, substantially outgrowing other components of GDP since 2010, he said. Business investment is expected to rise by an average of 6.4pc a year until the end of the decade, when it is forecast to reach a record high of 12.9pc of GDP.
EY said this would be helped by Britain's business-friendly environment. Corporation tax is on course to fall to 18pc by 2020, from 28pc in 2010. "
But chicken licken can't tell the difference between real and nominal terms so savings and investment must be awful and the sky falling.
Your frothing is getting more shrill.
Household savings rates are at a record low, investment rates should be rising very strongly at this stage of the economic cycle.
And you still don't want to mention the current account deficit, productivity, GDP per head and industrial production.
Perhaps instead you could remind us of how much Osborne said government borrowing would be in his 2010 Budget and how much it actually has been.
LOL pot calling the kettle black claiming about "shrill" and "frothing" how about trying to mention some real figures on savings and investments?
Bit odd complaining that "investment rates should be rising very strongly" when investment rates are at a record high.
I've not mentioned the current account deficit, productivity, GDP per capita and industrial production as they're not "savings, investment and exports". Instead I've mentioned: savings, investments and exports. But oh look, a dead cat.
The most interesting thing about the South Carolina primary may be the turnout since it'll give an indication of how enthusiastic Democratic voters are this year.
How did the Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada turnouts compare with 2008 and 2000 ?
I'm not sure how you calculate turnout with caucuses.
New Hampshire: 2016: 250,983 2008: 287,557 2000: 154,639
" UK business investment has performed impressively in recent years, substantially outgrowing other components of GDP since 2010, he said. Business investment is expected to rise by an average of 6.4pc a year until the end of the decade, when it is forecast to reach a record high of 12.9pc of GDP.
EY said this would be helped by Britain's business-friendly environment. Corporation tax is on course to fall to 18pc by 2020, from 28pc in 2010. "
But chicken licken can't tell the difference between real and nominal terms so savings and investment must be awful and the sky falling.
Your frothing is getting more shrill.
Household savings rates are at a record low, investment rates should be rising very strongly at this stage of the economic cycle.
And you still don't want to mention the current account deficit, productivity, GDP per head and industrial production.
Perhaps instead you could remind us of how much Osborne said government borrowing would be in his 2010 Budget and how much it actually has been.
LOL pot calling the kettle black claiming about "shrill" and "frothing" how about trying to mention some real figures on savings and investments?
Bit odd complaining that "investment rates should be rising very strongly" when investment rates are at a record high.
I've not mentioned the current account deficit, productivity, GDP per capita and industrial production as they're not "savings, investment and exports". Instead I've mentioned: savings, investments and exports. But oh look, a dead cat.
The household savings rate is 4.4% in 2015q3 - notice how rapidly it has fallen in recent years - see page 97:
The most interesting thing about the South Carolina primary may be the turnout since it'll give an indication of how enthusiastic Democratic voters are this year.
How did the Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada turnouts compare with 2008 and 2000 ?
I'm not sure how you calculate turnout with caucuses.
New Hampshire: 2016: 250,983 2008: 287,557 2000: 154,639
Thanks.
Turnout is still healthy even if down from the excitement of 2008.
The most interesting thing about the South Carolina primary may be the turnout since it'll give an indication of how enthusiastic Democratic voters are this year.
How did the Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada turnouts compare with 2008 and 2000 ?
I'm not sure how you calculate turnout with caucuses.
New Hampshire: 2016: 250,983 2008: 287,557 2000: 154,639
Thanks.
Turnout is still healthy even if down from the excitement of 2008.
Except in South Carolina where it's down by a third. CNN are claiming black turnout is actually up in SC compared to 2008. If that's true then white turnout must be very low indeed compared to then.
The most interesting thing about the South Carolina primary may be the turnout since it'll give an indication of how enthusiastic Democratic voters are this year.
How did the Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada turnouts compare with 2008 and 2000 ?
I'm not sure how you calculate turnout with caucuses.
New Hampshire: 2016: 250,983 2008: 287,557 2000: 154,639
Thanks.
Turnout is still healthy even if down from the excitement of 2008.
2008 South Caroline Dem primary turnout ~532k, 2016 turnout ~370k. That is quite a drop off.
The most interesting thing about the South Carolina primary may be the turnout since it'll give an indication of how enthusiastic Democratic voters are this year.
How did the Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada turnouts compare with 2008 and 2000 ?
I'm not sure how you calculate turnout with caucuses.
New Hampshire: 2016: 250,983 2008: 287,557 2000: 154,639
Thanks.
Turnout is still healthy even if down from the excitement of 2008.
The most interesting thing about the South Carolina primary may be the turnout since it'll give an indication of how enthusiastic Democratic voters are this year.
How did the Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada turnouts compare with 2008 and 2000 ?
I'm not sure how you calculate turnout with caucuses.
New Hampshire: 2016: 250,983 2008: 287,557 2000: 154,639
Thanks.
Turnout is still healthy even if down from the excitement of 2008.
2008 South Caroline Dem primary turnout ~532k, 2016 turnout ~370k. That is quite a drop off.
Shows it'll be tough for Clinton to match Obama's turnout at the general election.
Brussels is temporarily pulling the plug on plans to ban high-powered kettles and toasters in order to avoid giving anti-EU campaigners fresh ammunition in the Britain’s “Brexit” referendum, it was reported today."
Maybe, depending on who leads the party then. If its a Cameroon who does it adopting a pained expression and holding his nose the right of the party is going to peel off.
If Leave win it will be a very brave government that completely ignored half the populations voting almost entirely about immigration. If they take the EEA/EFTA they will be slammed from the rooftops from both sides for high handedness and ignoring the voters, and it would be close to electoral suicide even with Corbyn.
Comments
I've decided to do an AV thread on the anniversary of the AV referendum.
2011/12 £625bn
2012/13 £636bn
2013/14 £646bn
2014/15 £650bn
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_428954.pdf
As you should well know considering how often you claim that government spending has increased on this department or that area.
There's no such thing as bad AV.
http://www.rte.ie/player/ie/live/8/
FG 25.5%
FF 24.3%
SF 13.8%
Lab 6.6%
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/feb/27/south-carolina-democratic-primary-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-campaign-live?CMP=twt_gu
1) Orgies
2) Cannibalism
3) Julius Caesar
4) Monty Python
Surely that must excite you?
http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/sc/Dem
No, I'm just a very naughty boy
I'm sure it would excite Idi Amin and Jean-Bedel Bokassa even more.
Save: Positive.
Household debt to GDP which had risen every single year from 1997 to 2010 peaking around 100% of GDP has fallen every year under this government getting down to about a thirteen year low: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/households-debt-to-gdp
As well as household debt falling, the Government deficit has fallen every year under this government.
Invest: Positive
Business investments and business start ups are both running strong
Export: Mixed
Exports have been hit by the ongoing Eurozone crisis but while exports to the Eurozone have fallen, exports to the rest of world have risen. Overall exports are flatlining at a record high.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_South_Carolina,_2008
Sanders 19.1%
Government spending is falling in real terms and falling fast as a percentage of GDP.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12175832/Fearing-Brexit-Brussels-pulls-plug-on-kettles-ban.html
Houshold debt has fallen marginally as that graph shows - which is a good thing but ironically NOT what the government wanted. You also make no mention of household saving - which is at a record low.
'Business investments and business start ups are both running strong' - meaningless claims of the sort Brown and Osborne have both used.
Exports - Osborne announced a target of a trillion pounds of export by 2020. In reality it is flatlining at half that.
And predictably no mention of the current account deficit, productivity, GDP per head and industrial production.
When it comes down to it Osborne has attempted to recreate the Brownian economy - debt fuelled consumption based on rising house prices and government subsidies to favoured voting groups.
+~0 Hillary
+~1.5k Trump
come the General and I'm going to need to see some real evidence to start backing her at most likely odds on.
Household debt has not fallen marginally, a thirteen year low is quite a significant fall. From a peak of 99.5% of GDP to now 85.9% and still falling - and falling at its fastest rate currently. Quite a reversal from an ever higher increase in household debt previously. A true rebalancing of the economy.
Business investments: Growing at 2.9% in the last year http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/28/uk-exports-business-investment-second-quarter-gdp-growth-ons
Exports I said was mixed and don't see anything you've said to counter that. The target is being missed which is hardly surprising in this current business environment where our major trading partner is struggling much more than expected.
No need to mention those as they're not what was discussed. What was discussed I have mentioned. You asked about savings, investment and exports and I mentioned savings, investment and exports. Shock horror! Maybe I should make up some bulls**t nominal figures that show an increase where real figures show a decrease and scream increase like you do?
flightpath claimed that the government had been cutting its spending for 6 years. It hasn't, spending has increased.
Tractor stats I'm sure, unlike nominal statistics: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11892066/Britain-punches-above-its-weight-as-business-investment-climbs-to-new-heights.html
EY said this would be helped by Britain's business-friendly environment. Corporation tax is on course to fall to 18pc by 2020, from 28pc in 2010. "
But chicken licken can't tell the difference between real and nominal terms so savings and investment must be awful and the sky falling.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
And can't you find anything more recent to back up your argument than a six month old report in the Guardian ?
This is from the Guardian of last Thursday:
"The GDP report also shows that UK firms reined in their spending in the last quarter.
The ONS says that business investment shrank by 2.1% in the October-December period, the biggest drop in almost two years."
"Britain’s trade balance is rarely a pretty sight, as the country sucks in more goods than it sells to the rest of the world.
And today’s growth report shows that the deficit has widened again, from £14.7bn in Quarter 3 2015 to £16.6bn in the fourth quarter."
"Britain’s economic recovery is rather less impressive once you adjust for population changes.
On a per capita basis, GDP only grew by 0.3% in the last quarter. And on that measure, the economy is barely larger than in 2008 - before the financial crisis struck."
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/feb/25/uk-growth-figures-gdp-imf-warning-china-g20-business-live?page=with:block-56cedd31e4b03897ffe23a2a#block-56cedd31e4b03897ffe23a2a
Household savings rates are at a record low, investment rates should be rising very strongly at this stage of the economic cycle.
And you still don't want to mention the current account deficit, productivity, GDP per head and industrial production.
Perhaps instead you could remind us of how much Osborne said government borrowing would be in his 2010 Budget and how much it actually has been.
Bit odd complaining that "investment rates should be rising very strongly" when investment rates are at a record high.
I've not mentioned the current account deficit, productivity, GDP per capita and industrial production as they're not "savings, investment and exports". Instead I've mentioned: savings, investments and exports. But oh look, a dead cat.
New Hampshire:
2016: 250,983
2008: 287,557
2000: 154,639
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_429067.pdf
Perhaps you'd like to provide some evidence that 'investment rates are at a record high' ?
Turnout is still healthy even if down from the excitement of 2008.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/703666707865456641
You will see though after the vote goes in their favour.
If Leave win it will be a very brave government that completely ignored half the populations voting almost entirely about immigration. If they take the EEA/EFTA they will be slammed from the rooftops from both sides for high handedness and ignoring the voters, and it would be close to electoral suicide even with Corbyn.
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