politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump makes it three states in a row as he moves even close

Scott_P said:

@politicshome: OMG. PM just said: My mother would say "put on a proper suit, do up your tie and sing the national anthem". https://t.co/qLfXQb7gcy

TOPPING said:

Scott_P said:

TOPPING said:

Good PMQs for Jezza.

@IanDunt: Cameron doing well. Corbyn avoiding content of the argument, not thinking on his feet. Arguably doesn't know the research case well enough.

@DPJHodges: Jeremy Corbyn now getting slaughtered on the NHS. You couldn't make it up.

Disagree - he is sticking to the NHS. And, with that cheap jibe from Dave, maintaining the high ground.

But I am no political wonk so what do I know?

Personally I do not hold it against politicians for making the occasional cruel jibe at one another - it is part and parcel of adversarial politics, and much worse is often implied by both sides about their opponents, and often in much more condescending a fashion.

I don't think it really hurts the person making it unless it becomes too frequent and excessive, but neither do I think that someone pretending to rise above it gets credit either - because people understand that they will undoubtedly have said similar themselves at some point. Corbyn, who everyone agrees is generally a very polite man, has never made crass or cruel jibes about another politician? Like hell he hasn't.

Cameron is pretty decent at delivering a mean put down, but I cannot say commenting on personal appearence would be one of his better ones - people have mocked Corbybn for all those things, but you criticise it more effectively by being in contrast to it I feel. Even agreeing with the point that one does seem even more irrelevant than most political gags.

But a cruel gag crossing the line is a very minimal thing, and suggestions of it undermining Cameron even if the gag was not a good one, are going too far in the opposite direction from those chortling at its hilarity.

People think some people look and sound like PMs, and those people can get away with saying very un-PM like things; there isn't a set of topics or terminology that one cannot use without undermining one's position, it is unique to the person.

isam said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

What a wanker Cameron is.

I've met a few PBers who are applauding his comments and am amazed they would side with someone who would attack on the grounds of looks and dress sense

I think most of us would lose our rags if our mothers were brought into debates to attack us.

Was it Corbyn who brought his mother into it?

No he didn't. I didn't say that it was fair and I agree that it was way beneath the Prime Minister.

But context is everything.

Yes he did refer to DC's Mother. It was Corbyn who introduced it

I'll have an even £50 that it wasn't Corbyn

While this is a betting site I do not bet so your money is safe

tyson said:

TGOHF said:

Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..

I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts

I have thought it for some time

I've refused to read or listen to him since his revolting behaviour was exposed.

At least Draper had the sense to disappear.

SimonStClare said:

Sparrow: - Cameron taunts Labour over the decision by Emily Thornberry to hire Damian McBride, Gordon Brown’s former adviser, as a spin doctor.

Corbyn promised a politics that was honest, kinder and more caring, he says. Six months later they have hired McBride. That says it all, he says.

isam said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

Watching the Tories here slip so easily between hared of 'Jez' and an even stronger hatred of Dave leaves me breathless.

I love Jez and Dave.

Only Jez's fashion sense annoys me. I know I'm a fashion snob, as I'm currently wearing a £550 Hugo Boss suit, so my fashion tastes are very high.

More high street than high, I think

I didn't know Boss did suits that cheap

Probably got last season's range from Bicester

(very sensible, if you are going to waste money on brands, you might at least get them cut price)

Big_G_NorthWales said:

isam said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

What a wanker Cameron is.

I've met a few PBers who are applauding his comments and am amazed they would side with someone who would attack on the grounds of looks and dress sense

I think most of us would lose our rags if our mothers were brought into debates to attack us.

Was it Corbyn who brought his mother into it?

No he didn't. I didn't say that it was fair and I agree that it was way beneath the Prime Minister.

But context is everything.

Yes he did refer to DC's Mother. It was Corbyn who introduced it

I'll have an even £50 that it wasn't Corbyn

While this is a betting site I do not bet so your money is safe

Fair enough.. Sounded like he responded to a female heckler to me

isam said:

What a wanker Cameron is.

I've met a few PBers who are applauding his comments and am amazed they would side with someone who would attack on the grounds of looks and dress sense

Just about sums the spiv up , typical rich bully boy.

JackW- I can't recall you ever being wrong in terms of your predictions/forecasting/judgement. So, on that note, Trump will never be POTUS and I will bet accordingly.

JackW said:

tyson said:

TGOHF said:

Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..

I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts

Not I for one.

Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

Scott_P said:

Now a PPB for the Scottish Tories...

Ha Ha Ha , go back to your list seats and prepare for complete annihilation, constituency ones already lost

Plato_Says said:

Oh dear, a nerve touched

Jeremy Corbyn
“If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes & shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas & shoddy philosophies" Einstein #pmqs

No, a good riposte to childish attempted bullying.

Plato_Says said:

It was noticeable how Cameron emphasised PATIENTS in his responses.

Clear demarcation between vested interest vs patients.

Patients have a vested interest in doctors being satisfied in their jobs.\

JackW said:

tyson said:

TGOHF said:

Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..

I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts

Not I for one.

Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

And they should know. After all their candidate, Romney, did so well last time.

UK Elections
UK Elections forecast for #sp16. SNP Majority, Tories move into second place, Labour lose every constituency. https://t.co/zQcvCXdGBF

Apart from one question from Owen Patterson at the end of PMQ's the referendum did not come up. Rather surprising but is everyone trying to keep the debate civilised

Polruan said:

SouthamObserver said:

tyson said:

That's like saying Osama Bin Laden had fashionable footwear. Corbyn's fate is irreversibly set to end in doom, abject failure and recrimination. The die has been cast, the path is taken, and there is nothing he can now do to change it.

TOPPING said:

Good PMQs for Jezza.

And he is entirely oblivious as he spends absolutely no time in the company of anyone who has not shared his beliefs for the last 30 years. Luckily for Jezza and his mates, the Labour party membership is as shielded from the consequences of Tory housing, NHS and welfare reforms, not to mention cuts in essential services, as he is, so not being elected into office is not a huge problem. It's the self-righteous, futile anger that is so gloriously enjoyable.

I don't quite get that. The membership may well be deluded about the electability of their preferred policy prospectus but I don't see it as a luxury arising from being shielded from the current government's policies. I am fairly sure I'm the only member of my local constituency party with private healthcare for example.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/20/labours-new-members-mostly-wealthy-city-dwellers-leaked-report

Labour is now firmly a middle class party. The richer you are, the more shielded from the negative effects of government policy you are. You get to have your cake and eat it too.

I guess I am still seeking to understand why Labour members are so happy with a leader who will lead them to heavy electoral defeat. What is your explanation?

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

They assumed he would crash and burn against Jeb Bush...

He will be the most confoundingly difficult candidate that Clinton has ever faced because however much she smears him, he will successfully drag her down to the same level.

It'll be the other way around. The Clintons are dogs with a thousand fleas. As we speak, a parade of Bill's 'encounters' are being lined up. Then there's the emails. And we haven;t even started on financing.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Apart from one question from Owen Patterson at the end of PMQ's the referendum did not come up. Rather surprising but is everyone trying to keep the debate civilised

JohnO and I discussed this on Saturday.

There's a feeling amongst Tories, even the most dedicated Leavers that we're not going to make the mistakes of 1992 and 1997, and we're not going to let Corbyn become PM on our watch.

Plato_Says said:

UK Elections
UK Elections forecast for #sp16. SNP Majority, Tories move into second place, Labour lose every constituency. https://t.co/zQcvCXdGBF

That's an excellent format for displaying the projections / results.

The 75% ABC1 membership surprised even me. And 40% read the Guardian.

It's totally divorced from their base.

SouthamObserver said:

Polruan said:

SouthamObserver said:

tyson said:

That's like saying Osama Bin Laden had fashionable footwear. Corbyn's fate is irreversibly set to end in doom, abject failure and recrimination. The die has been cast, the path is taken, and there is nothing he can now do to change it.

TOPPING said:

Good PMQs for Jezza.

And he is entirely oblivious as he spends absolutely no time in the company of anyone who has not shared his beliefs for the last 30 years. Luckily for Jezza and his mates, the Labour party membership is as shielded from the consequences of Tory housing, NHS and welfare reforms, not to mention cuts in essential services, as he is, so not being elected into office is not a huge problem. It's the self-righteous, futile anger that is so gloriously enjoyable.

I don't quite get that. The membership may well be deluded about the electability of their preferred policy prospectus but I don't see it as a luxury arising from being shielded from the current government's policies. I am fairly sure I'm the only member of my local constituency party with private healthcare for example.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/20/labours-new-members-mostly-wealthy-city-dwellers-leaked-report

Labour is now firmly a middle class party. The richer you are, the more shielded from the negative effects of government policy you are. You get to have your cake and eat it too.

I guess I am still seeking to understand why Labour members are so happy with a leader who will lead them to heavy electoral defeat. What is your explanation?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Apart from one question from Owen Patterson at the end of PMQ's the referendum did not come up. Rather surprising but is everyone trying to keep the debate civilised

Probably unintentionally, or says more about me, but that reads to me like you are saying the only way to keep the debate civilised is not to have it.

Tissue_Price said:

Plato_Says said:

UK Elections
UK Elections forecast for #sp16. SNP Majority, Tories move into second place, Labour lose every constituency. https://t.co/zQcvCXdGBF

That's an excellent format for displaying the projections / results.

Look at that SNP weakness in the South - barely getting a majority of the constituency seats, the losers!

Tissue_Price said:

That's an excellent format for displaying the projections / results.

Looks an awful lot like the PB Wisdom Index from 2010...

Isn't it just. I hope others do the same - clear, implications specific and throws up individual constituency questions.

Tissue_Price said:

Plato_Says said:

UK Elections
UK Elections forecast for #sp16. SNP Majority, Tories move into second place, Labour lose every constituency. https://t.co/zQcvCXdGBF

That's an excellent format for displaying the projections / results.

not_on_fire said:

Plato_Says said:

Oh dear, a nerve touched

Jeremy Corbyn
“If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes & shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas & shoddy philosophies" Einstein #pmqs

No, a good riposte to childish attempted bullying.

I'm not sure a PM can be said to be bullying the LotO, it's a fair fight, surely. And Jez wants to be PM himself, being well turned out is a prerequisite for the job. He can hardly turn up to Bilderberg or G8 looking like something the cat dragged in. Besides, he's paid quite well, it's not as if he can't afford to dress well. I'd accept something smart casual if he wants, but the Marxist lecturer look is not really appropriate.

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

They assumed he would crash and burn against Jeb Bush...

He will be the most confoundingly difficult candidate that Clinton has ever faced because however much she smears him, he will successfully drag her down to the same level.

taffys said:

JackW said:

tyson said:

TGOHF said:

Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..

I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts

Not I for one.

Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

And they should know. After all their candidate, Romney, did so well last time.

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Trump is the ultimate Marmite politician and has a ceiling that he cannot break in November. This together with the ongoing demographic trends in swing states will be more than enough for Clinton to comfortably see off Trump.with the real possibility of a Clinton landslide in the Electoral College.

Trump reaches places that the GOP couldn't dream of reaching before.

Bret Easton Ellis ‏@BretEastonEllis Feb 20

Just back from a dinner in West Hollywood: shocked the majority of the table was voting for Trump but they would never admit it publicly.

I don't underestimate the insurgency of Trump in the GOP. He has taken all other candidates to the cleaners. However like Farage there is a whole world of difference between being an alternative flavour of the month and being the main course at the banquet.

Three declared Tory Leavers had questions. Team United was more important today.

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Apart from one question from Owen Patterson at the end of PMQ's the referendum did not come up. Rather surprising but is everyone trying to keep the debate civilised

Probably unintentionally, or says more about me, but that reads to me like you are saying the only way to keep the debate civilised is not to have it.

Tissue_Price said:

Plato_Says said:

UK Elections
UK Elections forecast for #sp16. SNP Majority, Tories move into second place, Labour lose every constituency. https://t.co/zQcvCXdGBF

That's an excellent format for displaying the projections / results.

Look at that SNP weakness in the South - barely getting a majority of the constituency seats, the losers!

Plato_Says said:

Harry Cole
Why is an SNP MP under investigation by IPSA? Our story from Jan: https://t.co/1RSezuooE3 claimed £450 for a promotional video about himself

Tories are really struggling

Polruan said:

Charles said:

not_on_fire said:

Plato_Says said:

It was noticeable how Cameron emphasised PATIENTS in his responses.

Clear demarcation between vested interest vs patients.

Patients have a vested interest in doctors being satisfied in their jobs.\

Because if they are not paid enough they'll do a bad job?

Or there won't be enough of them.

You Save the NHS ... I'm off to Australia.

Fine if they want to do that - provided they pay back the investment in their education and training

felix said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Roger said:

Watching the Tories here slip so easily between hared of 'Jez' and an even stronger hatred of Dave leaves me breathless.

I love Jez and Dave.

Only Jez's fashion sense annoys me. I know I'm a fashion snob, as I'm currently wearing a £550 Hugo Boss suit, so my fashion tastes are very high.

Err - your fashion costs are middling high - taste is quite another matter.

I one proffered Corbyn some fashion advice, if only he had listened to me

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/11/some-fashion-advice-for-jeremy-corbyn/

This thread was mentioned at a recent Fabians event, asking how come some bloke on a blog could see this disaster unfolding but no one in the Labour Party did.

JackW said:

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

They assumed he would crash and burn against Jeb Bush...

He will be the most confoundingly difficult candidate that Clinton has ever faced because however much she smears him, he will successfully drag her down to the same level.

taffys said:

JackW said:

tyson said:

TGOHF said:

Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..

I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts

Not I for one.

Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

And they should know. After all their candidate, Romney, did so well last time.

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Trump is the ultimate Marmite politician and has a ceiling that he cannot break in November. This together with the ongoing demographic trends in swing states will be more than enough for Clinton to comfortably see off Trump.with the real possibility of a Clinton landslide in the Electoral College.

Trump reaches places that the GOP couldn't dream of reaching before.

Bret Easton Ellis ‏@BretEastonEllis Feb 20

Just back from a dinner in West Hollywood: shocked the majority of the table was voting for Trump but they would never admit it publicly.

I don't underestimate the insurgency of Trump in the GOP. He has taken all other candidates to the cleaners. However like Farage there is a whole world of difference between being an alternative flavour of the month and being the main course at the banquet.

Thought experiment: who would have won a GE (England & Wales only) between Farage & Miliband, with no other parties to vote for?

Making their medical license contingent on repayment of tuition fees would cool a lot of selfish heels.

Charles said:

Polruan said:

Charles said:

not_on_fire said:

Plato_Says said:

It was noticeable how Cameron emphasised PATIENTS in his responses.

Clear demarcation between vested interest vs patients.

Patients have a vested interest in doctors being satisfied in their jobs.\

Because if they are not paid enough they'll do a bad job?

Or there won't be enough of them.

You Save the NHS ... I'm off to Australia.

Fine if they want to do that - provided they pay back the investment in their education and training

We're looking at second place in Scotland

malcolmg said:

Plato_Says said:

Harry Cole
Why is an SNP MP under investigation by IPSA? Our story from Jan: https://t.co/1RSezuooE3 claimed £450 for a promotional video about himself

Tories are really struggling

Corbyn appealing to authority of Einstein is just hilarious

bigjohnowls said:

If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes and shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas and shoddy philosophies.... It would be a sad situation if the wrapper were better than the meat wrapped inside it. - Einstein

Plato_Says said:

We're looking at second place in Scotland

malcolmg said:

Plato_Says said:

Harry Cole
Why is an SNP MP under investigation by IPSA? Our story from Jan: https://t.co/1RSezuooE3 claimed £450 for a promotional video about himself

Tories are really struggling

They have no chance, plus the desperation for SNPBAD is making it even more unlikely.

JackW said:

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

They assumed he would crash and burn against Jeb Bush...

He will be the most confoundingly difficult candidate that Clinton has ever faced because however much she smears him, he will successfully drag her down to the same level.

taffys said:

JackW said:

tyson said:

TGOHF said:

Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..

I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts

Not I for one.

Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

And they should know. After all their candidate, Romney, did so well last time.

williamglenn said:

JackW said:

Trump is the ultimate Marmite politician and has a ceiling that he cannot break in November. This together with the ongoing demographic trends in swing states will be more than enough for Clinton to comfortably see off Trump.with the real possibility of a Clinton landslide in the Electoral College.

Trump reaches places that the GOP couldn't dream of reaching before.

Bret Easton Ellis ‏@BretEastonEllis Feb 20

Just back from a dinner in West Hollywood: shocked the majority of the table was voting for Trump but they would never admit it publicly.

I don't underestimate the insurgency of Trump in the GOP. He has taken all other candidates to the cleaners. However like Farage there is a whole world of difference between being an alternative flavour of the month and being the main course at the banquet.

As ever, your points are noted. I suppose it in the end boils down to how strong one feels the 'anti-establishment' movement is. In a way, that's the answer to the referendum question too.

JackW said:

tyson said:

TGOHF said:

Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..

I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts

Not I for one.

Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

Yes I agree. Snot gonna happen.
It's perhaps a strange thing to say, but I feel that there would be a possibility that "President Trump" would be better than was GW Bush, who was the biggest US disaster, I think, in my rather long life..

MaxPB said:

JackW said:

tyson said:

TGOHF said:

Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..

I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts

Not I for one.

Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

Going to have to disagree with you Jack. People, including me, have been wrong about him crashing and burning time and again. Clinton is barely beating Sanders and Trump is a far more formidable opponent and debater than him. Clinton will try and get on on the back of liberals, black people, Hispanics and single women. Obama had a similar coalition to beat Romney. The problem is that liberals are disgusted with the way she has been treating Sanders, turnout among black people will be well down, Trump will do a lot better than expected among Hispanics leaving her with single women and feminists as her core constituency. It isn't going to be enough.

You may have been wrong about Trump- I wasn't.

Don't get hung up by the nomination. It's of limited relevance for the Dems - Remember how Clinton supporters in 08 told us that Obama couldn't unify the party after beating her. The problem for the GOP is more difficult as McCain and Romney had to tack to the right to secure the prize causing damage later on. Trump doesn't have this problem but plenty of others.

The Nomination Game and the General Election are two entirely different ball games.

MaxPB said:

Lennon said:

LondonBob said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

From OP: The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.

In no-one's ideal world is Rubio the candidate. Even in this world, I suspect a lot of the GOP Establishment will prefer Trump as figurehead while the grown-ups get on with running the country.

Now, the point is not that Trump can be bought off; of course he can't, but remember a new President brings his whole retinue as Cabinet members, ambassadors, civil servants and so on. Cruz or Rubio would bring their teams from Texas or Florida. The beauty of Trump, from this perspective, is that he has no candidate in mind for Secretary of Housing or Ambassador to Berlin, so can easily be persuaded to rubber stamp the Establishment candidates.

Trump will pick his own people. He has already drafted Jeff Sessions' team to write his immigration policy. He is talking to the right people on foreign policy and ignoring the phoney neocon think tank fronts (follow the money).

Personally I don't see Sessions being his VP, more valuable in the Senate. I would throw out Kris Kobach as a possible. Seen Scott Brown and Rick Scott touted. Reality is I have no clue, but I hope he remembers the Nixonian principle that the VP not be an incentive to any would be plotters against their President.

Trump's VP choice is going to be very interesting, and something that we should start looking at seriously. If he wants a woman to at least slightly negate Hilary then who are we looking at - Sarah Palin?, Susana Martinez?, Presumably Condi Rice wouldn't be interested.

Rubio is probably being pencilled in at the moment.

Hmm. Assuming Rubio would hope to take his chances again in 2020 given a probable (though not certain) Trump defeat, would he even agree?

Tangentially, I wonder whether 2020 is already Cruz's goal with respect to his strategy this time around.

Andrew Bloch
Perfect combination of headline/journalist

#Brexit https://t.co/y6tPOCDe9M

Chris Burn
Breaking: Rotherham abuse gang found guilty of dozens of charges abusing young girls in the town #starlive

Brothers Arshid and Bannaras Hussain found guilty of numerous offences. Can now be reported Bannaras Hussain pleaded guilty at start of case

MaxPB said:

Lennon said:

LondonBob said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

From OP: The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.

In no-one's ideal world is Rubio the candidate. Even in this world, I suspect a lot of the GOP Establishment will prefer Trump as figurehead while the grown-ups get on with running the country.

Now, the point is not that Trump can be bought off; of course he can't, but remember a new President brings his whole retinue as Cabinet members, ambassadors, civil servants and so on. Cruz or Rubio would bring their teams from Texas or Florida. The beauty of Trump, from this perspective, is that he has no candidate in mind for Secretary of Housing or Ambassador to Berlin, so can easily be persuaded to rubber stamp the Establishment candidates.

Trump will pick his own people. He has already drafted Jeff Sessions' team to write his immigration policy. He is talking to the right people on foreign policy and ignoring the phoney neocon think tank fronts (follow the money).

Personally I don't see Sessions being his VP, more valuable in the Senate. I would throw out Kris Kobach as a possible. Seen Scott Brown and Rick Scott touted. Reality is I have no clue, but I hope he remembers the Nixonian principle that the VP not be an incentive to any would be plotters against their President.

Trump's VP choice is going to be very interesting, and something that we should start looking at seriously. If he wants a woman to at least slightly negate Hilary then who are we looking at - Sarah Palin?, Susana Martinez?, Presumably Condi Rice wouldn't be interested.

Rubio is probably being pencilled in at the moment.

Pencilled in by who? Sure the GOP would like that, but as I understand it it's Trump's choice and I just don't see him playing by the rules and picking one of the other candidates. His whole schtick is doing things differently, why would his VP pick be any different?

I'm lost, what's your point here?

MattW said:

Plato_Says said:

We're looking at second place in Scotland

malcolmg said:

Plato_Says said:

Harry Cole
Why is an SNP MP under investigation by IPSA? Our story from Jan: https://t.co/1RSezuooE3 claimed £450 for a promotional video about himself

Tories are really struggling

Surprised that Kinnock Minor needs to *buy* a frother.

Charles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Apart from one question from Owen Patterson at the end of PMQ's the referendum did not come up. Rather surprising but is everyone trying to keep the debate civilised

or leave have realised it's daft to attack the PM on his own ground

Quite - Mr Cameron can say what he wants, he won't get interrupted by Labour, the questioner has no right of reply and (most important), his comments will be replayed on the BBC ad nauseam.

JackW said:

MaxPB said:

JackW said:

tyson said:

TGOHF said:

Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..

I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts

Not I for one.

Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

Going to have to disagree with you Jack. People, including me, have been wrong about him crashing and burning time and again. Clinton is barely beating Sanders and Trump is a far more formidable opponent and debater than him. Clinton will try and get on on the back of liberals, black people, Hispanics and single women. Obama had a similar coalition to beat Romney. The problem is that liberals are disgusted with the way she has been treating Sanders, turnout among black people will be well down, Trump will do a lot better than expected among Hispanics leaving her with single women and feminists as her core constituency. It isn't going to be enough.

You may have been wrong about Trump- I wasn't.

Don't get hung up by the nomination. It's of limited relevance for the Dems - Remember how Clinton supporters in 08 told us that Obama couldn't unify the party after beating her. The problem for the GOP is more difficult as McCain and Romney had to tack to the right to secure the prize causing damage later on. Trump doesn't have this problem but plenty of others.

The Nomination Game and the General Election are two entirely different ball games.

Obama was the insurgent in 08. Trump is the insurgent in 16. Hillary was and is the establishment candidate in both cases. Look at the way Trump swatted away Hillary's claims that he is a misogynist, she was completely lost as to how to respond. He breaks all of the normal rules of engagement in the US. Hillary isn't going to know what hit her if she ends up as the nominee.

Anyway, her coalition isn't broad enough as I pointed out.

AlastairMeeks said:

EU referenda seem to be infectious:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/24/hungary-viktor-orban-will-call-referendum-on-eu-refugee-quotas?CMP=twt_b-gdnnews

For what its worth, the Express reports that Holland and The Czechs are also getting cold feet.

Can't see any military man being fool enough to serve under a childish, impulsive ego maniac like Trump.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Toms said:

JackW said:

tyson said:

TGOHF said:

Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..

I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts

Not I for one.

Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

Yes I agree. Snot gonna happen.
It's perhaps a strange thing to say, but I feel that there would be a possibility that "President Trump" would be better than was GW Bush, who was the biggest US disaster, I think, in my rather long life..

The funny thing about Bush is that aside from the disastrous neocon Middle East policy, he was far more centrist than people think. He certainly believed in big government (the idea that right wingers believe in a small state is misleading -- many do; others don't) and in foreign aid did a lot, along with Gordon Brown, for debt relief in the developing world.

Dubya also strained to be inclusive to mainstream Muslims. While Trump likes to gin up animosity and conspiracy theories about them.

SimonStClare said:

It’s a shame that Corbyn is so slow on his feet that he couldn’t come up with that Einstein riposte during PMQs, but had to tweet it after the event - having presumably googled it.

Plato_Says said:

Corbyn appealing to authority of Einstein is just hilarious

bigjohnowls said:

If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes and shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas and shoddy philosophies.... It would be a sad situation if the wrapper were better than the meat wrapped inside it. - Einstein

Its like Ed Miliband all over again. Who regularly got both barrels and then 2-3hrs later tweeted a witty riposte that an aide had come up with.