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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump makes it three states in a row as he moves even close

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  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Tom Watsons' face during all this is wonderful. He's using every fibre to not laugh.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,865
    edited February 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @politicshome: OMG. PM just said: My mother would say "put on a proper suit, do up your tie and sing the national anthem". https://t.co/qLfXQb7gcy

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    TOPPING said:

    Good PMQs for Jezza.

    @IanDunt: Cameron doing well. Corbyn avoiding content of the argument, not thinking on his feet. Arguably doesn't know the research case well enough.

    @DPJHodges: Jeremy Corbyn now getting slaughtered on the NHS. You couldn't make it up.
    Disagree - he is sticking to the NHS. And, with that cheap jibe from Dave, maintaining the high ground.

    But I am no political wonk so what do I know?
    Personally I do not hold it against politicians for making the occasional cruel jibe at one another - it is part and parcel of adversarial politics, and much worse is often implied by both sides about their opponents, and often in much more condescending a fashion.

    I don't think it really hurts the person making it unless it becomes too frequent and excessive, but neither do I think that someone pretending to rise above it gets credit either - because people understand that they will undoubtedly have said similar themselves at some point. Corbyn, who everyone agrees is generally a very polite man, has never made crass or cruel jibes about another politician? Like hell he hasn't.

    Cameron is pretty decent at delivering a mean put down, but I cannot say commenting on personal appearence would be one of his better ones - people have mocked Corbybn for all those things, but you criticise it more effectively by being in contrast to it I feel. Even agreeing with the point that one does seem even more irrelevant than most political gags.

    But a cruel gag crossing the line is a very minimal thing, and suggestions of it undermining Cameron even if the gag was not a good one, are going too far in the opposite direction from those chortling at its hilarity.

    People think some people look and sound like PMs, and those people can get away with saying very un-PM like things; there isn't a set of topics or terminology that one cannot use without undermining one's position, it is unique to the person.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    53?

    @MrHarryCole: IPSA launch investigation into @PhilBoswellSNP's expenses - breaking
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    What a wanker Cameron is.

    I've met a few PBers who are applauding his comments and am amazed they would side with someone who would attack on the grounds of looks and dress sense

    I think most of us would lose our rags if our mothers were brought into debates to attack us.
    Was it Corbyn who brought his mother into it?
    No he didn't. I didn't say that it was fair and I agree that it was way beneath the Prime Minister.

    But context is everything.
    Yes he did refer to DC's Mother. It was Corbyn who introduced it
    I'll have an even £50 that it wasn't Corbyn
    While this is a betting site I do not bet so your money is safe
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Amber and Justine having a good old chinwag, the while..
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723
    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    I have thought it for some time
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    Doubts about Trump being POTUS ?

    I genuinely don't know. @JackW and Rod Crosby are on different sides of the argument here.

    Turnout massively up for the GOP, down for the Democrats is the only straw in the wind I can see so far and it bodes well for Trump.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I've refused to read or listen to him since his revolting behaviour was exposed.

    At least Draper had the sense to disappear.

    Sparrow: - Cameron taunts Labour over the decision by Emily Thornberry to hire Damian McBride, Gordon Brown’s former adviser, as a spin doctor.

    Corbyn promised a politics that was honest, kinder and more caring, he says. Six months later they have hired McBride. That says it all, he says.

  • Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Watching the Tories here slip so easily between hared of 'Jez' and an even stronger hatred of Dave leaves me breathless.

    I love Jez and Dave.

    Only Jez's fashion sense annoys me. I know I'm a fashion snob, as I'm currently wearing a £550 Hugo Boss suit, so my fashion tastes are very high.
    More high street than high, I think
    Well from the Manchester City Centre Hugo Boss store.

    Is a nightmare living and working that close to a Hugo Boss, Selfridges and Harvey Nicks
  • JackW said:

    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    Not I for one.

    Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    The GOP want to be in power, Trump can win the election. The 'establishment', whatever that means as I believe Nelson Rockefeller died a long time ago, will rally behind Trump. If you look closely you will see the likes of Bob Dole, Rudy Giuliani, Orrin Hatch, Trent Lott etc. already making supportive noises.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    Thought it was a Labour heckler, not Corbyn? (Some comment about that anti-austerity petition that Cameron's mother signed)

    Twitter says it was A Eagle
    politics home doesn't name (that's my source)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Watching the Tories here slip so easily between hared of 'Jez' and an even stronger hatred of Dave leaves me breathless.

    I love Jez and Dave.

    Only Jez's fashion sense annoys me. I know I'm a fashion snob, as I'm currently wearing a £550 Hugo Boss suit, so my fashion tastes are very high.
    More high street than high, I think
    I didn't know Boss did suits that cheap
    Probably got last season's range from Bicester

    (very sensible, if you are going to waste money on brands, you might at least get them cut price)
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Harry Cole
    Why is an SNP MP under investigation by IPSA? Our story from Jan: https://t.co/1RSezuooE3 claimed £450 for a promotional video about himself
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    What a wanker Cameron is.

    I've met a few PBers who are applauding his comments and am amazed they would side with someone who would attack on the grounds of looks and dress sense

    I think most of us would lose our rags if our mothers were brought into debates to attack us.
    Was it Corbyn who brought his mother into it?
    No he didn't. I didn't say that it was fair and I agree that it was way beneath the Prime Minister.

    But context is everything.
    Yes he did refer to DC's Mother. It was Corbyn who introduced it
    I'll have an even £50 that it wasn't Corbyn
    While this is a betting site I do not bet so your money is safe
    Fair enough.. Sounded like he responded to a female heckler to me
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    Not I for one.

    Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    Fair point.

    I would say Clinton is the favourite actually but I think Trump has a legitimate chance.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723
    isam said:

    What a wanker Cameron is.

    I've met a few PBers who are applauding his comments and am amazed they would side with someone who would attack on the grounds of looks and dress sense

    Just about sums the spiv up , typical rich bully boy.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Oh dear, a nerve touched

    Jeremy Corbyn
    “If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes & shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas & shoddy philosophies" Einstein #pmqs
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    JackW- I can't recall you ever being wrong in terms of your predictions/forecasting/judgement. So, on that note, Trump will never be POTUS and I will bet accordingly.
    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    Not I for one.

    Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ShippersUnbound: O-Patz accuses the PM of moving the goalposts on civil service support to scep ministers. Did DC take his lead from the badgers
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723
    Scott_P said:

    Now a PPB for the Scottish Tories...

    Ha Ha Ha , go back to your list seats and prepare for complete annihilation, constituency ones already lost
  • I'm going with private polling

    @robertshrimsley: Interesting question re Cameron suit and tie jibe is whether this was off-the-cuff (ho-ho) or based on private polling about Corbyn
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Oh dear, a nerve touched

    Jeremy Corbyn
    “If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes & shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas & shoddy philosophies" Einstein #pmqs

    No, a good riposte to childish attempted bullying.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Paul Waugh
    No10 spksman admits Generals For EU letter was organised by Downing St. And reveals "mistake was made" in naming Gen Sir Michael Rose. Uh-oh
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    It was noticeable how Cameron emphasised PATIENTS in his responses.

    Clear demarcation between vested interest vs patients.

    Patients have a vested interest in doctors being satisfied in their jobs.\
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    LondonBob said:

    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    Not I for one.

    Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    The GOP want to be in power, Trump can win the election. The 'establishment', whatever that means as I believe Nelson Rockefeller died a long time ago, will rally behind Trump. If you look closely you will see the likes of Bob Dole, Rudy Giuliani, Orrin Hatch, Trent Lott etc. already making supportive noises.
    Of course the GOP want to be in power and the "establishment" (virtually all non Trumpistas) will rally behind Trump, just as the Labour establishment will behind Jezza in 2020 should he make it that far and much good it will do them.

    Trump is the ultimate Marmite politician and has a ceiling that he cannot break in November. This together with the ongoing demographic trends in swing states will be more than enough for Clinton to comfortably see off Trump.with the real possibility of a Clinton landslide in the Electoral College.



  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    The only thing that can stop him is a bullet, and even then I'd bet on the Donald duck...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    JackW said:


    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    They assumed he would crash and burn against Jeb Bush...

    He will be the most confoundingly difficult candidate that Clinton has ever faced because however much she smears him, he will successfully drag her down to the same level.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2016
    Laura K on Daily Politics makes a point that highlighted the flaw in Richard Nabavis constant demand for UKUP inclined voters to back Cameron pre GE

    A Conservative PM w a majority, standing outside No 10 (perhaps in a made to measure suit by my friend who has a tailors in Jermyn St) with all the trappings of power, is a very hard front man to beat in a referendum when he is campaigning so vigorously for the status quo
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    Not I for one.

    Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    And they should know. After all their candidate, Romney, did so well last time.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    UK Elections
    UK Elections forecast for #sp16. SNP Majority, Tories move into second place, Labour lose every constituency. https://t.co/zQcvCXdGBF
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Bloomberg Business
    It's the big one! Here's what you need to know about Super Tuesday https://t.co/cUyAVc9ZFk https://t.co/2wTaqQcmld
  • Apart from one question from Owen Patterson at the end of PMQ's the referendum did not come up. Rather surprising but is everyone trying to keep the debate civilised
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    JackW said:


    Trump is the ultimate Marmite politician and has a ceiling that he cannot break in November. This together with the ongoing demographic trends in swing states will be more than enough for Clinton to comfortably see off Trump.with the real possibility of a Clinton landslide in the Electoral College.

    Trump reaches places that the GOP couldn't dream of reaching before.

    Bret Easton Ellis ‏@BretEastonEllis Feb 20

    Just back from a dinner in West Hollywood: shocked the majority of the table was voting for Trump but they would never admit it publicly.

  • Polruan said:

    tyson said:

    That's like saying Osama Bin Laden had fashionable footwear. Corbyn's fate is irreversibly set to end in doom, abject failure and recrimination. The die has been cast, the path is taken, and there is nothing he can now do to change it.

    TOPPING said:

    Good PMQs for Jezza.

    And he is entirely oblivious as he spends absolutely no time in the company of anyone who has not shared his beliefs for the last 30 years. Luckily for Jezza and his mates, the Labour party membership is as shielded from the consequences of Tory housing, NHS and welfare reforms, not to mention cuts in essential services, as he is, so not being elected into office is not a huge problem. It's the self-righteous, futile anger that is so gloriously enjoyable.

    I don't quite get that. The membership may well be deluded about the electability of their preferred policy prospectus but I don't see it as a luxury arising from being shielded from the current government's policies. I am fairly sure I'm the only member of my local constituency party with private healthcare for example.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/20/labours-new-members-mostly-wealthy-city-dwellers-leaked-report

    Labour is now firmly a middle class party. The richer you are, the more shielded from the negative effects of government policy you are. You get to have your cake and eat it too.

    I guess I am still seeking to understand why Labour members are so happy with a leader who will lead them to heavy electoral defeat. What is your explanation?

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    tyson said:

    JackW- I can't recall you ever being wrong in terms of your predictions/forecasting/judgement. So, on that note, Trump will never be POTUS and I will bet accordingly.

    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    Not I for one.

    Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    It still rankles with me that I called Missouri in 08 and Florida in 12 wrong albeit because the GOP couldn't gerrymander a piss up in a brewery in both states !! .... :smile:
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753

    JackW said:


    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    They assumed he would crash and burn against Jeb Bush...

    He will be the most confoundingly difficult candidate that Clinton has ever faced because however much she smears him, he will successfully drag her down to the same level.
    It'll be the other way around. The Clintons are dogs with a thousand fleas. As we speak, a parade of Bill's 'encounters' are being lined up. Then there's the emails. And we haven;t even started on financing.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    It was noticeable how Cameron emphasised PATIENTS in his responses.

    Clear demarcation between vested interest vs patients.

    Patients have a vested interest in doctors being satisfied in their jobs.\
    Because if they are not paid enough they'll do a bad job?
  • Apart from one question from Owen Patterson at the end of PMQ's the referendum did not come up. Rather surprising but is everyone trying to keep the debate civilised

    JohnO and I discussed this on Saturday.

    There's a feeling amongst Tories, even the most dedicated Leavers that we're not going to make the mistakes of 1992 and 1997, and we're not going to let Corbyn become PM on our watch.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Roger said:

    Watching the Tories here slip so easily between hared of 'Jez' and an even stronger hatred of Dave leaves me breathless.

    I love Jez and Dave.

    Only Jez's fashion sense annoys me. I know I'm a fashion snob, as I'm currently wearing a £550 Hugo Boss suit, so my fashion tastes are very high.
    Err - your fashion costs are middling high - taste is quite another matter. :)
  • UK Elections
    UK Elections forecast for #sp16. SNP Majority, Tories move into second place, Labour lose every constituency. https://t.co/zQcvCXdGBF

    That's an excellent format for displaying the projections / results.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Apart from one question from Owen Patterson at the end of PMQ's the referendum did not come up. Rather surprising but is everyone trying to keep the debate civilised

    or leave have realised it's daft to attack the PM on his own ground
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    The 75% ABC1 membership surprised even me. And 40% read the Guardian.

    It's totally divorced from their base.

    Polruan said:

    tyson said:

    That's like saying Osama Bin Laden had fashionable footwear. Corbyn's fate is irreversibly set to end in doom, abject failure and recrimination. The die has been cast, the path is taken, and there is nothing he can now do to change it.

    TOPPING said:

    Good PMQs for Jezza.

    And he is entirely oblivious as he spends absolutely no time in the company of anyone who has not shared his beliefs for the last 30 years. Luckily for Jezza and his mates, the Labour party membership is as shielded from the consequences of Tory housing, NHS and welfare reforms, not to mention cuts in essential services, as he is, so not being elected into office is not a huge problem. It's the self-righteous, futile anger that is so gloriously enjoyable.

    I don't quite get that. The membership may well be deluded about the electability of their preferred policy prospectus but I don't see it as a luxury arising from being shielded from the current government's policies. I am fairly sure I'm the only member of my local constituency party with private healthcare for example.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/20/labours-new-members-mostly-wealthy-city-dwellers-leaked-report

    Labour is now firmly a middle class party. The richer you are, the more shielded from the negative effects of government policy you are. You get to have your cake and eat it too.

    I guess I am still seeking to understand why Labour members are so happy with a leader who will lead them to heavy electoral defeat. What is your explanation?

  • UK Elections
    UK Elections forecast for #sp16. SNP Majority, Tories move into second place, Labour lose every constituency. https://t.co/zQcvCXdGBF

    Tories still 7/4 to come 2nd. Looks about right, tbh; this is an optimistic-looking projection.

    The SNP:Green vote doesn't seem to be materialising.

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-parliamentary-election/most-seats-without-snp
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,865

    Apart from one question from Owen Patterson at the end of PMQ's the referendum did not come up. Rather surprising but is everyone trying to keep the debate civilised

    Probably unintentionally, or says more about me, but that reads to me like you are saying the only way to keep the debate civilised is not to have it.

    UK Elections
    UK Elections forecast for #sp16. SNP Majority, Tories move into second place, Labour lose every constituency. https://t.co/zQcvCXdGBF

    That's an excellent format for displaying the projections / results.
    Look at that SNP weakness in the South - barely getting a majority of the constituency seats, the losers!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Dismissing Hillary dir to her having problems with Sanders is a mistake. The primaries are fought on the wings, the general election is fought in the centre.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    That's an excellent format for displaying the projections / results.

    Looks an awful lot like the PB Wisdom Index from 2010...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768
    NHS Employers admits junior doctor pay calculator may be inaccurate.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Isn't it just. I hope others do the same - clear, implications specific and throws up individual constituency questions.

    UK Elections
    UK Elections forecast for #sp16. SNP Majority, Tories move into second place, Labour lose every constituency. https://t.co/zQcvCXdGBF

    That's an excellent format for displaying the projections / results.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Charles said:

    It was noticeable how Cameron emphasised PATIENTS in his responses.

    Clear demarcation between vested interest vs patients.

    Patients have a vested interest in doctors being satisfied in their jobs.\
    Because if they are not paid enough they'll do a bad job?
    Or there won't be enough of them.
  • Oh dear, a nerve touched

    Jeremy Corbyn
    “If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes & shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas & shoddy philosophies" Einstein #pmqs

    No, a good riposte to childish attempted bullying.
    I'm not sure a PM can be said to be bullying the LotO, it's a fair fight, surely. And Jez wants to be PM himself, being well turned out is a prerequisite for the job. He can hardly turn up to Bilderberg or G8 looking like something the cat dragged in. Besides, he's paid quite well, it's not as if he can't afford to dress well. I'd accept something smart casual if he wants, but the Marxist lecturer look is not really appropriate.
  • Polruan said:

    tyson said:

    That's like saying Osama Bin Laden had fashionable footwear. Corbyn's fate is irreversibly set to end in doom, abject failure and recrimination. The die has been cast, the path is taken, and there is nothing he can now do to change it.

    TOPPING said:

    Good PMQs for Jezza.

    And he is entirely oblivious as he spends absolutely no time in the company of anyone who has not shared his beliefs for the last 30 years. Luckily for Jezza and his mates, the Labour party membership is as shielded from the consequences of Tory housing, NHS and welfare reforms, not to mention cuts in essential services, as he is, so not being elected into office is not a huge problem. It's the self-righteous, futile anger that is so gloriously enjoyable.

    I don't quite get that. The membership may well be deluded about the electability of their preferred policy prospectus but I don't see it as a luxury arising from being shielded from the current government's policies. I am fairly sure I'm the only member of my local constituency party with private healthcare for example.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/20/labours-new-members-mostly-wealthy-city-dwellers-leaked-report

    Labour is now firmly a middle class party. The richer you are, the more shielded from the negative effects of government policy you are. You get to have your cake and eat it too.

    I guess I am still seeking to understand why Labour members are so happy with a leader who will lead them to heavy electoral defeat. What is your explanation?

    So are we saying that campaigning for Corbyn is now the ultimate virtue signal?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited February 2016

    JackW said:


    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    They assumed he would crash and burn against Jeb Bush...

    He will be the most confoundingly difficult candidate that Clinton has ever faced because however much she smears him, he will successfully drag her down to the same level.
    taffys said:

    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    Not I for one.

    Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    And they should know. After all their candidate, Romney, did so well last time.

    JackW said:


    Trump is the ultimate Marmite politician and has a ceiling that he cannot break in November. This together with the ongoing demographic trends in swing states will be more than enough for Clinton to comfortably see off Trump.with the real possibility of a Clinton landslide in the Electoral College.

    Trump reaches places that the GOP couldn't dream of reaching before.

    Bret Easton Ellis ‏@BretEastonEllis Feb 20

    Just back from a dinner in West Hollywood: shocked the majority of the table was voting for Trump but they would never admit it publicly.

    I don't underestimate the insurgency of Trump in the GOP. He has taken all other candidates to the cleaners. However like Farage there is a whole world of difference between being an alternative flavour of the month and being the main course at the banquet.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768
    If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes and shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas and shoddy philosophies.... It would be a sad situation if the wrapper were better than the meat wrapped inside it. - Einstein
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Three declared Tory Leavers had questions. Team United was more important today.
    kle4 said:

    Apart from one question from Owen Patterson at the end of PMQ's the referendum did not come up. Rather surprising but is everyone trying to keep the debate civilised

    Probably unintentionally, or says more about me, but that reads to me like you are saying the only way to keep the debate civilised is not to have it.

    UK Elections
    UK Elections forecast for #sp16. SNP Majority, Tories move into second place, Labour lose every constituency. https://t.co/zQcvCXdGBF

    That's an excellent format for displaying the projections / results.
    Look at that SNP weakness in the South - barely getting a majority of the constituency seats, the losers!
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,784
    LondonBob said:

    From OP: The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.

    In no-one's ideal world is Rubio the candidate. Even in this world, I suspect a lot of the GOP Establishment will prefer Trump as figurehead while the grown-ups get on with running the country.

    Now, the point is not that Trump can be bought off; of course he can't, but remember a new President brings his whole retinue as Cabinet members, ambassadors, civil servants and so on. Cruz or Rubio would bring their teams from Texas or Florida. The beauty of Trump, from this perspective, is that he has no candidate in mind for Secretary of Housing or Ambassador to Berlin, so can easily be persuaded to rubber stamp the Establishment candidates.

    Trump will pick his own people. He has already drafted Jeff Sessions' team to write his immigration policy. He is talking to the right people on foreign policy and ignoring the phoney neocon think tank fronts (follow the money).

    Personally I don't see Sessions being his VP, more valuable in the Senate. I would throw out Kris Kobach as a possible. Seen Scott Brown and Rick Scott touted. Reality is I have no clue, but I hope he remembers the Nixonian principle that the VP not be an incentive to any would be plotters against their President.
    Trump's VP choice is going to be very interesting, and something that we should start looking at seriously. If he wants a woman to at least slightly negate Hilary then who are we looking at - Sarah Palin?, Susana Martinez?, Presumably Condi Rice wouldn't be interested.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723

    Harry Cole
    Why is an SNP MP under investigation by IPSA? Our story from Jan: https://t.co/1RSezuooE3 claimed £450 for a promotional video about himself

    Tories are really struggling
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,347
    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    Not I for one.

    Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    Going to have to disagree with you Jack. People, including me, have been wrong about him crashing and burning time and again. Clinton is barely beating Sanders and Trump is a far more formidable opponent and debater than him. Clinton will try and get on on the back of liberals, black people, Hispanics and single women. Obama had a similar coalition to beat Romney. The problem is that liberals are disgusted with the way she has been treating Sanders, turnout among black people will be well down, Trump will do a lot better than expected among Hispanics leaving her with single women and feminists as her core constituency. It isn't going to be enough.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Polruan said:

    Charles said:

    It was noticeable how Cameron emphasised PATIENTS in his responses.

    Clear demarcation between vested interest vs patients.

    Patients have a vested interest in doctors being satisfied in their jobs.\
    Because if they are not paid enough they'll do a bad job?
    Or there won't be enough of them.
    You Save the NHS ... I'm off to Australia.

    Fine if they want to do that - provided they pay back the investment in their education and training
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723

    UK Elections
    UK Elections forecast for #sp16. SNP Majority, Tories move into second place, Labour lose every constituency. https://t.co/zQcvCXdGBF

    Tories still 7/4 to come 2nd. Looks about right, tbh; this is an optimistic-looking projection.

    The SNP:Green vote doesn't seem to be materialising.

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-parliamentary-election/most-seats-without-snp
    7/4 is far far too short
  • felix said:

    Roger said:

    Watching the Tories here slip so easily between hared of 'Jez' and an even stronger hatred of Dave leaves me breathless.

    I love Jez and Dave.

    Only Jez's fashion sense annoys me. I know I'm a fashion snob, as I'm currently wearing a £550 Hugo Boss suit, so my fashion tastes are very high.
    Err - your fashion costs are middling high - taste is quite another matter. :)
    I one proffered Corbyn some fashion advice, if only he had listened to me

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/11/some-fashion-advice-for-jeremy-corbyn/

    This thread was mentioned at a recent Fabians event, asking how come some bloke on a blog could see this disaster unfolding but no one in the Labour Party did.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723
    felix said:

    Roger said:

    Watching the Tories here slip so easily between hared of 'Jez' and an even stronger hatred of Dave leaves me breathless.

    I love Jez and Dave.

    Only Jez's fashion sense annoys me. I know I'm a fashion snob, as I'm currently wearing a £550 Hugo Boss suit, so my fashion tastes are very high.
    Err - your fashion costs are middling high - taste is quite another matter. :)
    barrow boy special
  • JackW said:

    JackW said:


    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    They assumed he would crash and burn against Jeb Bush...

    He will be the most confoundingly difficult candidate that Clinton has ever faced because however much she smears him, he will successfully drag her down to the same level.
    taffys said:

    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    Not I for one.

    Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    And they should know. After all their candidate, Romney, did so well last time.

    JackW said:


    Trump is the ultimate Marmite politician and has a ceiling that he cannot break in November. This together with the ongoing demographic trends in swing states will be more than enough for Clinton to comfortably see off Trump.with the real possibility of a Clinton landslide in the Electoral College.

    Trump reaches places that the GOP couldn't dream of reaching before.

    Bret Easton Ellis ‏@BretEastonEllis Feb 20

    Just back from a dinner in West Hollywood: shocked the majority of the table was voting for Trump but they would never admit it publicly.

    I don't underestimate the insurgency of Trump in the GOP. He has taken all other candidates to the cleaners. However like Farage there is a whole world of difference between being an alternative flavour of the month and being the main course at the banquet.
    Thought experiment: who would have won a GE (England & Wales only) between Farage & Miliband, with no other parties to vote for?
  • Oh dear, a nerve touched

    Jeremy Corbyn
    “If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes & shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas & shoddy philosophies" Einstein #pmqs

    No, a good riposte to childish attempted bullying.
    I'm not sure a PM can be said to be bullying the LotO, it's a fair fight, surely. And Jez wants to be PM himself, being well turned out is a prerequisite for the job. He can hardly turn up to Bilderberg or G8 looking like something the cat dragged in. Besides, he's paid quite well, it's not as if he can't afford to dress well. I'd accept something smart casual if he wants, but the Marxist lecturer look is not really appropriate.
    And as an Old Novaportan he should know how he should be turned out.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Making their medical license contingent on repayment of tuition fees would cool a lot of selfish heels.
    Charles said:

    Polruan said:

    Charles said:

    It was noticeable how Cameron emphasised PATIENTS in his responses.

    Clear demarcation between vested interest vs patients.

    Patients have a vested interest in doctors being satisfied in their jobs.\
    Because if they are not paid enough they'll do a bad job?
    Or there won't be enough of them.
    You Save the NHS ... I'm off to Australia.

    Fine if they want to do that - provided they pay back the investment in their education and training
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,768
    Charles said:

    Polruan said:

    Charles said:

    It was noticeable how Cameron emphasised PATIENTS in his responses.

    Clear demarcation between vested interest vs patients.

    Patients have a vested interest in doctors being satisfied in their jobs.\
    Because if they are not paid enough they'll do a bad job?
    Or there won't be enough of them.
    You Save the NHS ... I'm off to Australia.

    Fine if they want to do that - provided they pay back the investment in their education and training
    I thought you would understand market forces.

    Clearly not
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    We're looking at second place in Scotland :wink:
    malcolmg said:

    Harry Cole
    Why is an SNP MP under investigation by IPSA? Our story from Jan: https://t.co/1RSezuooE3 claimed £450 for a promotional video about himself

    Tories are really struggling
  • kle4 said:

    Apart from one question from Owen Patterson at the end of PMQ's the referendum did not come up. Rather surprising but is everyone trying to keep the debate civilised

    Probably unintentionally, or says more about me, but that reads to me like you are saying the only way to keep the debate civilised is not to have it.

    UK Elections
    UK Elections forecast for #sp16. SNP Majority, Tories move into second place, Labour lose every constituency. https://t.co/zQcvCXdGBF

    That's an excellent format for displaying the projections / results.
    Look at that SNP weakness in the South - barely getting a majority of the constituency seats, the losers!
    That is not South Scotland. That is Novaya Angliya.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Corbyn appealing to authority of Einstein is just hilarious

    If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes and shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas and shoddy philosophies.... It would be a sad situation if the wrapper were better than the meat wrapped inside it. - Einstein

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    JackW said:


    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    They assumed he would crash and burn against Jeb Bush...

    He will be the most confoundingly difficult candidate that Clinton has ever faced because however much she smears him, he will successfully drag her down to the same level.
    Trump doesn't play by the rules. He'll just steamroller Clinton, as an elephant might dismiss a gnat.

    The people love him already, and think a Trump presidency is going to change their lives, or is at least going to make them feel better about themselves and the USA, and more secure.

    They are fed up with professional politicians, who've never done anything with their lives but scheme for office. Trump is a billionaire, but has the common touch. He wants nothing, needs nothing, and owes nothing to anyone. He calls a spade a spade.

    Swathes of people who have given up on politics will flock to the polls for this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity - to give two fingers to the Establishment.

    The bien pensants are heading for the biggest banquet of crow since 1948...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,723
    edited February 2016

    We're looking at second place in Scotland :wink:

    malcolmg said:

    Harry Cole
    Why is an SNP MP under investigation by IPSA? Our story from Jan: https://t.co/1RSezuooE3 claimed £450 for a promotional video about himself

    Tories are really struggling
    They have no chance, plus the desperation for SNPBAD is making it even more unlikely.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Polruan said:

    Charles said:

    It was noticeable how Cameron emphasised PATIENTS in his responses.

    Clear demarcation between vested interest vs patients.

    Patients have a vested interest in doctors being satisfied in their jobs.\
    Because if they are not paid enough they'll do a bad job?
    Or there won't be enough of them.
    You Save the NHS ... I'm off to Australia.

    Fine if they want to do that - provided they pay back the investment in their education and training
    I thought you would understand market forces.

    Clearly not
    I do. But I object to someone getting their education paid for and then demanding market rates as well.

    Either you pay for your tuition yourself - and can charge market rates, or you get a subsidy on the training but accept you will have lower wages for a period of time.

    There's no such thing as a free lunch
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    JackW said:

    JackW said:


    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    They assumed he would crash and burn against Jeb Bush...

    He will be the most confoundingly difficult candidate that Clinton has ever faced because however much she smears him, he will successfully drag her down to the same level.
    taffys said:

    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    Not I for one.

    Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    And they should know. After all their candidate, Romney, did so well last time.

    JackW said:


    Trump is the ultimate Marmite politician and has a ceiling that he cannot break in November. This together with the ongoing demographic trends in swing states will be more than enough for Clinton to comfortably see off Trump.with the real possibility of a Clinton landslide in the Electoral College.

    Trump reaches places that the GOP couldn't dream of reaching before.

    Bret Easton Ellis ‏@BretEastonEllis Feb 20

    Just back from a dinner in West Hollywood: shocked the majority of the table was voting for Trump but they would never admit it publicly.

    I don't underestimate the insurgency of Trump in the GOP. He has taken all other candidates to the cleaners. However like Farage there is a whole world of difference between being an alternative flavour of the month and being the main course at the banquet.
    As ever, your points are noted. I suppose it in the end boils down to how strong one feels the 'anti-establishment' movement is. In a way, that's the answer to the referendum question too.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,347
    Lennon said:

    LondonBob said:

    From OP: The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.

    In no-one's ideal world is Rubio the candidate. Even in this world, I suspect a lot of the GOP Establishment will prefer Trump as figurehead while the grown-ups get on with running the country.

    Now, the point is not that Trump can be bought off; of course he can't, but remember a new President brings his whole retinue as Cabinet members, ambassadors, civil servants and so on. Cruz or Rubio would bring their teams from Texas or Florida. The beauty of Trump, from this perspective, is that he has no candidate in mind for Secretary of Housing or Ambassador to Berlin, so can easily be persuaded to rubber stamp the Establishment candidates.

    Trump will pick his own people. He has already drafted Jeff Sessions' team to write his immigration policy. He is talking to the right people on foreign policy and ignoring the phoney neocon think tank fronts (follow the money).

    Personally I don't see Sessions being his VP, more valuable in the Senate. I would throw out Kris Kobach as a possible. Seen Scott Brown and Rick Scott touted. Reality is I have no clue, but I hope he remembers the Nixonian principle that the VP not be an incentive to any would be plotters against their President.
    Trump's VP choice is going to be very interesting, and something that we should start looking at seriously. If he wants a woman to at least slightly negate Hilary then who are we looking at - Sarah Palin?, Susana Martinez?, Presumably Condi Rice wouldn't be interested.
    Rubio is probably being pencilled in at the moment.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited February 2016
    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    Not I for one.

    Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    Yes I agree. Snot gonna happen.
    It's perhaps a strange thing to say, but I feel that there would be a possibility that "President Trump" would be better than was GW Bush, who was the biggest US disaster, I think, in my rather long life..
  • RodCrosby said:

    JackW said:


    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    They assumed he would crash and burn against Jeb Bush...

    He will be the most confoundingly difficult candidate that Clinton has ever faced because however much she smears him, he will successfully drag her down to the same level.
    Trump doesn't play by the rules. He'll just steamroller Clinton, as an elephant might dismiss a gnat.

    The people love him already, and think a Trump presidency is going to change their lives, or is at least going to make them feel better about themselves and the USA, and more secure.

    They are fed up with professional politicians, who've never done anything with their lives but scheme for office. Trump is a billionaire, but has the common touch. He wants nothing, needs nothing, and owes nothing to anyone. He calls a spade a spade.

    Swathes of people who have given up on politics will flock to the polls for this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity - to give two fingers to the Establishment.

    The bien pensants are heading for the biggest banquet of crow since 1948...
    You're straight up against the venerated JackW with that prediction!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MaxPB said:

    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    Not I for one.

    Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    Going to have to disagree with you Jack. People, including me, have been wrong about him crashing and burning time and again. Clinton is barely beating Sanders and Trump is a far more formidable opponent and debater than him. Clinton will try and get on on the back of liberals, black people, Hispanics and single women. Obama had a similar coalition to beat Romney. The problem is that liberals are disgusted with the way she has been treating Sanders, turnout among black people will be well down, Trump will do a lot better than expected among Hispanics leaving her with single women and feminists as her core constituency. It isn't going to be enough.
    You may have been wrong about Trump- I wasn't.

    Don't get hung up by the nomination. It's of limited relevance for the Dems - Remember how Clinton supporters in 08 told us that Obama couldn't unify the party after beating her. The problem for the GOP is more difficult as McCain and Romney had to tack to the right to secure the prize causing damage later on. Trump doesn't have this problem but plenty of others.

    The Nomination Game and the General Election are two entirely different ball games.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,944
    MaxPB said:

    Lennon said:

    LondonBob said:

    From OP: The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.

    In no-one's ideal world is Rubio the candidate. Even in this world, I suspect a lot of the GOP Establishment will prefer Trump as figurehead while the grown-ups get on with running the country.

    Now, the point is not that Trump can be bought off; of course he can't, but remember a new President brings his whole retinue as Cabinet members, ambassadors, civil servants and so on. Cruz or Rubio would bring their teams from Texas or Florida. The beauty of Trump, from this perspective, is that he has no candidate in mind for Secretary of Housing or Ambassador to Berlin, so can easily be persuaded to rubber stamp the Establishment candidates.

    Trump will pick his own people. He has already drafted Jeff Sessions' team to write his immigration policy. He is talking to the right people on foreign policy and ignoring the phoney neocon think tank fronts (follow the money).

    Personally I don't see Sessions being his VP, more valuable in the Senate. I would throw out Kris Kobach as a possible. Seen Scott Brown and Rick Scott touted. Reality is I have no clue, but I hope he remembers the Nixonian principle that the VP not be an incentive to any would be plotters against their President.
    Trump's VP choice is going to be very interesting, and something that we should start looking at seriously. If he wants a woman to at least slightly negate Hilary then who are we looking at - Sarah Palin?, Susana Martinez?, Presumably Condi Rice wouldn't be interested.
    Rubio is probably being pencilled in at the moment.
    I suspect Trump is smart enough not to negate his outsider appeal by picking someone safe as his running mate. He'll most likely double-down with someone of a similar pedigree but who won't take any of the limelight from him. Fiorina must still be in with a shout.
  • MaxPB said:

    Lennon said:

    LondonBob said:

    From OP: The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.

    In no-one's ideal world is Rubio the candidate. Even in this world, I suspect a lot of the GOP Establishment will prefer Trump as figurehead while the grown-ups get on with running the country.

    Now, the point is not that Trump can be bought off; of course he can't, but remember a new President brings his whole retinue as Cabinet members, ambassadors, civil servants and so on. Cruz or Rubio would bring their teams from Texas or Florida. The beauty of Trump, from this perspective, is that he has no candidate in mind for Secretary of Housing or Ambassador to Berlin, so can easily be persuaded to rubber stamp the Establishment candidates.

    Trump will pick his own people. He has already drafted Jeff Sessions' team to write his immigration policy. He is talking to the right people on foreign policy and ignoring the phoney neocon think tank fronts (follow the money).

    Personally I don't see Sessions being his VP, more valuable in the Senate. I would throw out Kris Kobach as a possible. Seen Scott Brown and Rick Scott touted. Reality is I have no clue, but I hope he remembers the Nixonian principle that the VP not be an incentive to any would be plotters against their President.
    Trump's VP choice is going to be very interesting, and something that we should start looking at seriously. If he wants a woman to at least slightly negate Hilary then who are we looking at - Sarah Palin?, Susana Martinez?, Presumably Condi Rice wouldn't be interested.
    Rubio is probably being pencilled in at the moment.
    Hmm. Assuming Rubio would hope to take his chances again in 2020 given a probable (though not certain) Trump defeat, would he even agree?

    Tangentially, I wonder whether 2020 is already Cruz's goal with respect to his strategy this time around.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Rubio has never been higher than 14 on betfair
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Andrew Bloch
    Perfect combination of headline/journalist

    #Brexit https://t.co/y6tPOCDe9M
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,383

    Making their medical license contingent on repayment of tuition fees would cool a lot of selfish heels.

    Charles said:

    Polruan said:

    Charles said:

    It was noticeable how Cameron emphasised PATIENTS in his responses.

    Clear demarcation between vested interest vs patients.

    Patients have a vested interest in doctors being satisfied in their jobs.\
    Because if they are not paid enough they'll do a bad job?
    Or there won't be enough of them.
    You Save the NHS ... I'm off to Australia.

    Fine if they want to do that - provided they pay back the investment in their education and training
    I think we've been through the Australia and / or NZ and / or Scotland thing.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Chris Burn
    Breaking: Rotherham abuse gang found guilty of dozens of charges abusing young girls in the town #starlive

    Brothers Arshid and Bannaras Hussain found guilty of numerous offences. Can now be reported Bannaras Hussain pleaded guilty at start of case

  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Cameron must be sick to death of strolling round that park every Wednesday afternoon...Shame on Labour.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited February 2016

    MaxPB said:

    Lennon said:

    LondonBob said:

    From OP: The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.

    In no-one's ideal world is Rubio the candidate. Even in this world, I suspect a lot of the GOP Establishment will prefer Trump as figurehead while the grown-ups get on with running the country.

    Now, the point is not that Trump can be bought off; of course he can't, but remember a new President brings his whole retinue as Cabinet members, ambassadors, civil servants and so on. Cruz or Rubio would bring their teams from Texas or Florida. The beauty of Trump, from this perspective, is that he has no candidate in mind for Secretary of Housing or Ambassador to Berlin, so can easily be persuaded to rubber stamp the Establishment candidates.

    Trump will pick his own people. He has already drafted Jeff Sessions' team to write his immigration policy. He is talking to the right people on foreign policy and ignoring the phoney neocon think tank fronts (follow the money).

    Personally I don't see Sessions being his VP, more valuable in the Senate. I would throw out Kris Kobach as a possible. Seen Scott Brown and Rick Scott touted. Reality is I have no clue, but I hope he remembers the Nixonian principle that the VP not be an incentive to any would be plotters against their President.
    Trump's VP choice is going to be very interesting, and something that we should start looking at seriously. If he wants a woman to at least slightly negate Hilary then who are we looking at - Sarah Palin?, Susana Martinez?, Presumably Condi Rice wouldn't be interested.
    Rubio is probably being pencilled in at the moment.
    I suspect Trump is smart enough not to negate his outsider appeal by picking someone safe as his running mate. He'll most likely double-down with someone of a similar pedigree but who won't take any of the limelight from him. Fiorina must still be in with a shout.
    Yeah, he's already questioned Rubio's eligibility, and the qualifications for VPOTUS are the same as those for POTUS...

    He might pick a military man.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,383

    We're looking at second place in Scotland :wink:

    malcolmg said:

    Harry Cole
    Why is an SNP MP under investigation by IPSA? Our story from Jan: https://t.co/1RSezuooE3 claimed £450 for a promotional video about himself

    Tories are really struggling
    Surprised that Kinnock Minor needs to *buy* a frother.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,784
    MaxPB said:

    Lennon said:

    LondonBob said:

    From OP: The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.

    In no-one's ideal world is Rubio the candidate. Even in this world, I suspect a lot of the GOP Establishment will prefer Trump as figurehead while the grown-ups get on with running the country.

    Now, the point is not that Trump can be bought off; of course he can't, but remember a new President brings his whole retinue as Cabinet members, ambassadors, civil servants and so on. Cruz or Rubio would bring their teams from Texas or Florida. The beauty of Trump, from this perspective, is that he has no candidate in mind for Secretary of Housing or Ambassador to Berlin, so can easily be persuaded to rubber stamp the Establishment candidates.

    Trump will pick his own people. He has already drafted Jeff Sessions' team to write his immigration policy. He is talking to the right people on foreign policy and ignoring the phoney neocon think tank fronts (follow the money).

    Personally I don't see Sessions being his VP, more valuable in the Senate. I would throw out Kris Kobach as a possible. Seen Scott Brown and Rick Scott touted. Reality is I have no clue, but I hope he remembers the Nixonian principle that the VP not be an incentive to any would be plotters against their President.
    Trump's VP choice is going to be very interesting, and something that we should start looking at seriously. If he wants a woman to at least slightly negate Hilary then who are we looking at - Sarah Palin?, Susana Martinez?, Presumably Condi Rice wouldn't be interested.
    Rubio is probably being pencilled in at the moment.
    Pencilled in by who? Sure the GOP would like that, but as I understand it it's Trump's choice and I just don't see him playing by the rules and picking one of the other candidates. His whole schtick is doing things differently, why would his VP pick be any different?
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    RodCrosby said:

    JackW said:


    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    They assumed he would crash and burn against Jeb Bush...

    He will be the most confoundingly difficult candidate that Clinton has ever faced because however much she smears him, he will successfully drag her down to the same level.
    Trump doesn't play by the rules. He'll just steamroller Clinton, as an elephant might dismiss a gnat.

    The people love him already, and think a Trump presidency is going to change their lives, or is at least going to make them feel better about themselves and the USA, and more secure.

    They are fed up with professional politicians, who've never done anything with their lives but scheme for office. Trump is a billionaire, but has the common touch. He wants nothing, needs nothing, and owes nothing to anyone. He calls a spade a spade.

    Swathes of people who have given up on politics will flock to the polls for this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity - to give two fingers to the Establishment.

    The bien pensants are heading for the biggest banquet of crow since 1948...
    Time maybe for a nifty fifty on a Trump victory in Nov
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'm lost, what's your point here?
    MattW said:

    We're looking at second place in Scotland :wink:

    malcolmg said:

    Harry Cole
    Why is an SNP MP under investigation by IPSA? Our story from Jan: https://t.co/1RSezuooE3 claimed £450 for a promotional video about himself

    Tories are really struggling
    Surprised that Kinnock Minor needs to *buy* a frother.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Charles said:

    Apart from one question from Owen Patterson at the end of PMQ's the referendum did not come up. Rather surprising but is everyone trying to keep the debate civilised

    or leave have realised it's daft to attack the PM on his own ground
    Quite - Mr Cameron can say what he wants, he won't get interrupted by Labour, the questioner has no right of reply and (most important), his comments will be replayed on the BBC ad nauseam.
  • Toms said:

    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    Not I for one.

    Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    Yes I agree. Snot gonna happen.
    It's perhaps a strange thing to say, but I feel that there would be a possibility that "President Trump" would be better than was GW Bush, who was the biggest US disaster, I think, in my rather long life..
    The funny thing about Bush is that aside from the disastrous neocon Middle East policy, he was far more centrist than people think. He certainly believed in big government (the idea that right wingers believe in a small state is misleading -- many do; others don't) and in foreign aid did a lot, along with Gordon Brown, for debt relief in the developing world.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,347
    JackW said:

    MaxPB said:

    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    Not I for one.

    Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    Going to have to disagree with you Jack. People, including me, have been wrong about him crashing and burning time and again. Clinton is barely beating Sanders and Trump is a far more formidable opponent and debater than him. Clinton will try and get on on the back of liberals, black people, Hispanics and single women. Obama had a similar coalition to beat Romney. The problem is that liberals are disgusted with the way she has been treating Sanders, turnout among black people will be well down, Trump will do a lot better than expected among Hispanics leaving her with single women and feminists as her core constituency. It isn't going to be enough.
    You may have been wrong about Trump- I wasn't.

    Don't get hung up by the nomination. It's of limited relevance for the Dems - Remember how Clinton supporters in 08 told us that Obama couldn't unify the party after beating her. The problem for the GOP is more difficult as McCain and Romney had to tack to the right to secure the prize causing damage later on. Trump doesn't have this problem but plenty of others.

    The Nomination Game and the General Election are two entirely different ball games.

    Obama was the insurgent in 08. Trump is the insurgent in 16. Hillary was and is the establishment candidate in both cases. Look at the way Trump swatted away Hillary's claims that he is a misogynist, she was completely lost as to how to respond. He breaks all of the normal rules of engagement in the US. Hillary isn't going to know what hit her if she ends up as the nominee.

    Anyway, her coalition isn't broad enough as I pointed out.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Lennon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lennon said:

    LondonBob said:

    From OP: The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.

    In no-one's ideal world is Rubio the candidate. Even in this world, I suspect a lot of the GOP Establishment will prefer Trump as figurehead while the grown-ups get on with running the country.

    Now, the point is not that Trump can be bought off; of course he can't, but remember a new President brings his whole retinue as Cabinet members, ambassadors, civil servants and so on. Cruz or Rubio would bring their teams from Texas or Florida. The beauty of Trump, from this perspective, is that he has no candidate in mind for Secretary of Housing or Ambassador to Berlin, so can easily be persuaded to rubber stamp the Establishment candidates.

    Trump will pick his own people. He has already drafted Jeff Sessions' team to write his immigration policy. He is talking to the right people on foreign policy and ignoring the phoney neocon think tank fronts (follow the money).

    Personally I don't see Sessions being his VP, more valuable in the Senate. I would throw out Kris Kobach as a possible. Seen Scott Brown and Rick Scott touted. Reality is I have no clue, but I hope he remembers the Nixonian principle that the VP not be an incentive to any would be plotters against their President.
    Trump's VP choice is going to be very interesting, and something that we should start looking at seriously. If he wants a woman to at least slightly negate Hilary then who are we looking at - Sarah Palin?, Susana Martinez?, Presumably Condi Rice wouldn't be interested.
    Rubio is probably being pencilled in at the moment.
    Pencilled in by who? Sure the GOP would like that, but as I understand it it's Trump's choice and I just don't see him playing by the rules and picking one of the other candidates. His whole schtick is doing things differently, why would his VP pick be any different?
    There is no rule or convention that one of the defeated candidates for the nomination should get the VP slot. So it wouldn't even be "different" for Trump to look elsewhere.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    For what its worth, the Express reports that Holland and The Czechs are also getting cold feet.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Surreal funny

    Michael Deacon
    Hansard transcript of PMQs is in https://t.co/K0XW2N5yBZ
  • Can't see any military man being fool enough to serve under a childish, impulsive ego maniac like Trump.
  • It’s a shame that Corbyn is so slow on his feet that he couldn’t come up with that Einstein riposte during PMQs, but had to tweet it after the event - having presumably googled it.

    Corbyn appealing to authority of Einstein is just hilarious

    If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes and shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas and shoddy philosophies.... It would be a sad situation if the wrapper were better than the meat wrapped inside it. - Einstein

  • Toms said:

    JackW said:

    tyson said:

    TGOHF said:

    Far better for Trump if Cruz stays in..


    I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?

    I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
    Not I for one.

    Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.

    Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.

    Yes I agree. Snot gonna happen.
    It's perhaps a strange thing to say, but I feel that there would be a possibility that "President Trump" would be better than was GW Bush, who was the biggest US disaster, I think, in my rather long life..
    The funny thing about Bush is that aside from the disastrous neocon Middle East policy, he was far more centrist than people think. He certainly believed in big government (the idea that right wingers believe in a small state is misleading -- many do; others don't) and in foreign aid did a lot, along with Gordon Brown, for debt relief in the developing world.
    Dubya also strained to be inclusive to mainstream Muslims. While Trump likes to gin up animosity and conspiracy theories about them.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,347
    Lennon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Lennon said:

    LondonBob said:

    From OP: The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.

    In no-one's ideal world is Rubio the candidate. Even in this world, I suspect a lot of the GOP Establishment will prefer Trump as figurehead while the grown-ups get on with running the country.

    Now, the point is not that Trump can be bought off; of course he can't, but remember a new President brings his whole retinue as Cabinet members, ambassadors, civil servants and so on. Cruz or Rubio would bring their teams from Texas or Florida. The beauty of Trump, from this perspective, is that he has no candidate in mind for Secretary of Housing or Ambassador to Berlin, so can easily be persuaded to rubber stamp the Establishment candidates.

    Trump will pick his own people. He has already drafted Jeff Sessions' team to write his immigration policy. He is talking to the right people on foreign policy and ignoring the phoney neocon think tank fronts (follow the money).

    Personally I don't see Sessions being his VP, more valuable in the Senate. I would throw out Kris Kobach as a possible. Seen Scott Brown and Rick Scott touted. Reality is I have no clue, but I hope he remembers the Nixonian principle that the VP not be an incentive to any would be plotters against their President.
    Trump's VP choice is going to be very interesting, and something that we should start looking at seriously. If he wants a woman to at least slightly negate Hilary then who are we looking at - Sarah Palin?, Susana Martinez?, Presumably Condi Rice wouldn't be interested.
    Rubio is probably being pencilled in at the moment.
    Pencilled in by who? Sure the GOP would like that, but as I understand it it's Trump's choice and I just don't see him playing by the rules and picking one of the other candidates. His whole schtick is doing things differently, why would his VP pick be any different?
    That's a good point, but he may also want to mend fences within the GOP. Trump will just spin it as "different" when he does it. Remember that Rubio came in on the Tea Party ticket so he is hardly the establishment figure that people love to say he is. Bush and Kasich were/are the establishment candidates.
  • It’s a shame that Corbyn is so slow on his feet that he couldn’t come up with that Einstein riposte during PMQs, but had to tweet it after the event - having presumably googled it.


    Corbyn appealing to authority of Einstein is just hilarious

    If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes and shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas and shoddy philosophies.... It would be a sad situation if the wrapper were better than the meat wrapped inside it. - Einstein

    Its like Ed Miliband all over again. Who regularly got both barrels and then 2-3hrs later tweeted a witty riposte that an aide had come up with.
This discussion has been closed.