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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump makes it three states in a row as he moves even close
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump makes it three states in a row as he moves even closer to the nomination
The big news in the White House Race is that Trump had another emphatic victory in last night’s Nevada caucuses. This means he’s now made it three states in a row and is now a clear favourite to secure the nomination.
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I think I'll let it ride.
HRC 1.86/1.87
Sanders 16.5/17.5
GOP:
Trump 1.525/Rubi Oh 3.4 making up 95% of the market.
Rest any price you like.
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/politics/havant-mp-accused-of-eu-u-turn-after-he-pledges-to-support-referendum-in-campaign-1-7228571
In no-one's ideal world is Rubio the candidate. Even in this world, I suspect a lot of the GOP Establishment will prefer Trump as figurehead while the grown-ups get on with running the country.
Now, the point is not that Trump can be bought off; of course he can't, but remember a new President brings his whole retinue as Cabinet members, ambassadors, civil servants and so on. Cruz or Rubio would bring their teams from Texas or Florida. The beauty of Trump, from this perspective, is that he has no candidate in mind for Secretary of Housing or Ambassador to Berlin, so can easily be persuaded to rubber stamp the Establishment candidates.
56% Remain or so ?
Marco Rubio's price is one of the enduring mysteries of the age.
PMQs coming up: 3 declared outers down for questions off top of my head: mackinlay, tolhurst, Ghani https://t.co/qChuShnX2v
If you make something 53% you don't commit to going all in at Even money.
I'm surprised there aren't more fence sitters (used as an insult, but actually a valid position), and think that the overwhelming proportion of 'don't knows' will break for 'stay at home'
I think the political rulebook is being ripped apart. The Internet, social media is probably playing it's role as well as inequality and stagnation in the West, and the shift in the balance of wealth between young and old. There is a thesis or two in all of this linking up the growth of anti politics of the West post 2010.
The traditional parties just seem out of touch which they are.
Map of Cockney territories in London as defined by being able to... https://t.co/vJmCLjSKNU https://t.co/qOGtlSvTyz
I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?
I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
@DPJHodges: Jeremy Corbyn now getting slaughtered on the NHS. You couldn't make it up.
@MrHarryCole: Age old lesson here. Never bring anyone's mother into a row.
Like the first cuckoo of spring you will all have to start watching out for Trump looking more Presidential. I wonder if it will harm his chances?
Overall: -1.33%
Con seats: -1.14%
Lab seats: -1.32%
LD seats: -0.43%
SNP seats: -3.28%
PC: -1.53%
Sheet 1 is all seats, sheets 2 to 6 are the individual parties:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-H4eqc43aDRvF9V_VOjTQRh-rPmNifYJom-yaJ79Rpg/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=1073574480
But I am no political wonk so what do I know?
@DAaronovitch: That from Cameron on what his mum would say about Corbyn was unfair, beside the point and completely devastating.
But he has kept to the same subject, for all his questions, has asked pertinent questions, and picked holes in some of the NHS negotiations using accepted research. And now, he has forced Dave to address his points in his more measured tones.
April 2015: The Complete Idiot announces he’s seriously considering running for the Republican presidential nomination. On Fox News, George Will looked forward to watching him crash and burn.
June 2015: The Al Sharpton of the Republican Party declared his candidacy in a rambling speech full of racist attacks on Mexican immigrants intended to rile up the teabaggers.
June 2015: The Bloviating Ignoramus has taken a lead in the polls, but it’s still the silly season. Voters haven’t yet taken a look at the more plausible candidates.
July 2015: The Bane of Humanity has insulted the war hero John McCain. He’s gotten away with his gaffes, insults and vulgarity so far, but this time he’s gone too far.
August 2015: The Clown described our champion as “a low-energy person.” Rather than join Trump in the gutter, Jeb understands voters will quickly tire of Trump’s childish banter.
August 2015: The Dancing Bear draws a crowd of 30,000 in Alabama.
September 2015: The Most Fabulous Whiner in All of American Politics continues to hold his lead in the polls. Fox New analysts are confident that Republican voters will soon get serious.
February 2016: The One-Man Wedge Issue said that George W. Bush lied to get us into Iraq. He’s done it now. Veterans, who revere the former president, are a major bloc in South Carolina.
February 2016: Trump wins New Hampshire and South Carolina, but if all candidates but Rubio drop out and he gets their votes, Trump can be stopped.
November 2016: Donald J. Trump has won the election. National Review publishes a special issues congratulating President Trump, featuring highlights of brilliant campaign. Fox All Stars offer him their counsel and assistance in instituting a true conservative agenda.
@theobertram: Corbyn righteous on the NHS but scoring no hits. Voice oddly strained. Win for Cameron's mum.
I've met a few PBers who are applauding his comments and am amazed they would side with someone who would attack on the grounds of looks and dress sense
It should be worrying for a Labour leader if he can’t win, or at least hold is own, on the NHS. Cameron knocked Corbyn.
https://media.giphy.com/media/BKqoHeHlbcRvW/giphy.gif
* It's the Republicans' "turn"
* Hillary has struggled to beat someone who should be only a fringe candidate for her own nomination. It's hard to get one's head around that actually.
* Trump is a gaffe-prone populist, but since when has that been a fatal objection?
(Although I agree with David Aaronovitch on this)
I'm just amazed that some of the ugliest and worst dressed people I've ever met are cheering on that jibe
The McCain is not a war hero will play particularly well, night after night across the states.
I rewound it several times. It's the sort of stuff I'd say after a liquid lunch. It's either demob happy or trying to get some team points with the unimpressed on his own side.
But context is everything.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419
Personally I don't see Sessions being his VP, more valuable in the Senate. I would throw out Kris Kobach as a possible. Seen Scott Brown and Rick Scott touted. Reality is I have no clue, but I hope he remembers the Nixonian principle that the VP not be an incentive to any would be plotters against their President.
Only Jez's fashion sense annoys me. I know I'm a fashion snob, as I'm currently wearing a £550 Hugo Boss suit, so my fashion tastes are very high.
It didn't end well...
I can see the market consistently underestimating his true chances for similar reasons they did for the nominee.
Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.
Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.
Clear demarcation between vested interest vs patients.
Corbyn promised a politics that was honest, kinder and more caring, he says. Six months later they have hired McBride. That says it all, he says.