I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?
I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
Not I for one.
Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.
Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.
Going to have to disagree with you Jack. People, including me, have been wrong about him crashing and burning time and again. Clinton is barely beating Sanders and Trump is a far more formidable opponent and debater than him. Clinton will try and get on on the back of liberals, black people, Hispanics and single women. Obama had a similar coalition to beat Romney. The problem is that liberals are disgusted with the way she has been treating Sanders, turnout among black people will be well down, Trump will do a lot better than expected among Hispanics leaving her with single women and feminists as her core constituency. It isn't going to be enough.
You may have been wrong about Trump- I wasn't.
Don't get hung up by the nomination. It's of limited relevance for the Dems - Remember how Clinton supporters in 08 told us that Obama couldn't unify the party after beating her. The problem for the GOP is more difficult as McCain and Romney had to tack to the right to secure the prize causing damage later on. Trump doesn't have this problem but plenty of others.
The Nomination Game and the General Election are two entirely different ball games.
Obama was the insurgent in 08. Trump is the insurgent in 16. Hillary was and is the establishment candidate in both cases. Look at the way Trump swatted away Hillary's claims that he is a misogynist, she was completely lost as to how to respond. He breaks all of the normal rules of engagement in the US. Hillary isn't going to know what hit her if she ends up as the nominee.
Anyway, her coalition isn't broad enough as I pointed out.
The other day Trump was talking about prosecuting Hillary if he becomes president.
That's like saying Osama Bin Laden had fashionable footwear. Corbyn's fate is irreversibly set to end in doom, abject failure and recrimination. The die has been cast, the path is taken, and there is nothing he can now do to change it.
Labour is now firmly a middle class party. The richer you are, the more shielded from the negative effects of government policy you are. You get to have your cake and eat it too.
I guess I am still seeking to understand why Labour members are so happy with a leader who will lead them to heavy electoral defeat. What is your explanation?
A few explanations (views that may be held by many members, not necessarily my views). Most of them, obviously, include the belief that it's not a
1) Heroic martyrs
None of the alternatives look any more likely to win elections unless they become so indistinguishable from the Tories that there really isn't a point (cf failing to oppose the welfare bill, for example). If you're going to die anyway, you might as well do it with your head held high.
2) Syriza-before-the-beasting
Politics is about moving the discourse towards your position, not just blowing with the wind of public opinion. Corbyn is the only candidate who seems to have any interest in this approach. It's difficult to work out what the other candidates really believe in other than being slightly nicer than the Tories in as-yet-unspecified ways. It may lead to electoral oblivion, but there's a chance that we could change things rather than just give up all hope.
3) Nationalism-is-popular
A lot of Miliband's most left-wing policies actually polled pretty well. The SNP played at left-wing and didn't do so badly either. The problem isn't the policies, it's the presentation; this is the kind of prospectus Labour should be promoting. While Corbyn doesn't excel on the presentation front, nobody else offered the right policies so he's the only real option.
4) Anti-politics
Establishment candidates aren't doing so well. Trump, Sanders etc etc. Conviction politics is where it's at.
I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?
I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
I have thought it for some time
If he secures the nomination, he will murder Clinton in debates/ interviews (assuming she isn't in the pokey - there have been developments) on trustworthiness. Also Fox will reluctantly have to support him as the lesser of two evils. Clinton will probably not have the 105% support of American blacks for instance and Mr Trump's main anti-illegal-immigration stance is going to resonate with many blue collar (usually Democratic) voters.
I will expect there to be ludicrous desperate comments made by Fox/ CNN etc in the next week (up to super Tuesday) until it is clear that Mr Trump will win the nomination.
But, I am sure, Mr Trump is unlikely to be magnanimous towards biased media. Obama kicked the 'right-wing press' out of the oval office. I suspect that Mr Trump will follow suit.
(I suspect the BBC won't be allowed within 10 miles of the White House post January 2017, if Mr Trump wins.)
It’s a shame that Corbyn is so slow on his feet that he couldn’t come up with that Einstein riposte during PMQs, but had to tweet it after the event - having presumably googled it.
If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes and shoddy furniture let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas and shoddy philosophies.... It would be a sad situation if the wrapper were better than the meat wrapped inside it. - Einstein
Its like Ed Miliband all over again. Who regularly got both barrels and then 2-3hrs later tweeted a witty riposte that an aide had come up with.
I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?
I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
Not I for one.
Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.
Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.
Yes I agree. Snot gonna happen. It's perhaps a strange thing to say, but I feel that there would be a possibility that "President Trump" would be better than was GW Bush, who was the biggest US disaster, I think, in my rather long life..
The funny thing about Bush is that aside from the disastrous neocon Middle East policy, he was far more centrist than people think. He certainly believed in big government (the idea that right wingers believe in a small state is misleading -- many do; others don't) and in foreign aid did a lot, along with Gordon Brown, for debt relief in the developing world.
Trump might prove more balanced if elected. But it would not be worth the risk.
From OP: The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.
In no-one's ideal world is Rubio the candidate. Even in this world, I suspect a lot of the GOP Establishment will prefer Trump as figurehead while the grown-ups get on with running the country.
Now, the point is not that Trump can be bought off; of course he can't, but remember a new President brings his whole retinue as Cabinet members, ambassadors, civil servants and so on. Cruz or Rubio would bring their teams from Texas or Florida. The beauty of Trump, from this perspective, is that he has no candidate in mind for Secretary of Housing or Ambassador to Berlin, so can easily be persuaded to rubber stamp the Establishment candidates.
Trump will pick his own people. He has already drafted Jeff Sessions' team to write his immigration policy. He is talking to the right people on foreign policy and ignoring the phoney neocon think tank fronts (follow the money).
Personally I don't see Sessions being his VP, more valuable in the Senate. I would throw out Kris Kobach as a possible. Seen Scott Brown and Rick Scott touted. Reality is I have no clue, but I hope he remembers the Nixonian principle that the VP not be an incentive to any would be plotters against their President.
Trump's VP choice is going to be very interesting, and something that we should start looking at seriously. If he wants a woman to at least slightly negate Hilary then who are we looking at - Sarah Palin?, Susana Martinez?, Presumably Condi Rice wouldn't be interested.
Rubio is probably being pencilled in at the moment.
Pencilled in by who? Sure the GOP would like that, but as I understand it it's Trump's choice and I just don't see him playing by the rules and picking one of the other candidates. His whole schtick is doing things differently, why would his VP pick be any different?
There is no rule or convention that one of the defeated candidates for the nomination should get the VP slot. So it wouldn't even be "different" for Trump to look elsewhere.
McCain certainly went outside the GOP “Establishment”. I think its almost a given that Trump will. He wouldn’t, would he, pick his eldest son? After all, he’s a VP at the family business!
Hilary is going to get the nomination by racking up a humungous black vote in deep blood red conservative GOP states. Meanwhile the Rustbelt looks well in play for any of the GOP:
Ohio General Election Matchups:
Kasich 54 Clinton 37 Kasich 54 Sanders 35
Rubio 47 Clinton 42 Rubio 44 Sanders 42
Cruz 46 Clinton 43 Cruz 42 Sanders 44
Trump 44 Clinton 42 Trump 44 Sanders 44
Max GOP: 54 Max Dem: 42
Hilary behind Cruz in Ohio - surely that ain't a great sign.
From OP: The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.
In no-one's ideal world is Rubio the candidate. Even in this world, I suspect a lot of the GOP Establishment will prefer Trump as figurehead while the grown-ups get on with running the country.
Now, the point is not that Trump can be bought off; of course he can't, but remember a new President brings his whole retinue as Cabinet members, ambassadors, civil servants and so on. Cruz or Rubio would bring their teams from Texas or Florida. The beauty of Trump, from this perspective, is that he has no candidate in mind for Secretary of Housing or Ambassador to Berlin, so can easily be persuaded to rubber stamp the Establishment candidates.
Trump will pick his own people. He has already drafted Jeff Sessions' team to write his immigration policy. He is talking to the right people on foreign policy and ignoring the phoney neocon think tank fronts (follow the money).
Personally I don't see Sessions being his VP, more valuable in the Senate. I would throw out Kris Kobach as a possible. Seen Scott Brown and Rick Scott touted. Reality is I have no clue, but I hope he remembers the Nixonian principle that the VP not be an incentive to any would be plotters against their President.
Trump's VP choice is going to be very interesting, and something that we should start looking at seriously. If he wants a woman to at least slightly negate Hilary then who are we looking at - Sarah Palin?, Susana Martinez?, Presumably Condi Rice wouldn't be interested.
Rubio is probably being pencilled in at the moment.
Pencilled in by who? Sure the GOP would like that, but as I understand it it's Trump's choice and I just don't see him playing by the rules and picking one of the other candidates. His whole schtick is doing things differently, why would his VP pick be any different?
There is no rule or convention that one of the defeated candidates for the nomination should get the VP slot. So it wouldn't even be "different" for Trump to look elsewhere.
McCain certainly went outside the GOP “Establishment”. I think its almost a given that Trump will. He wouldn’t, would he, pick his eldest son? After all, he’s a VP at the family business!
If he's keeping it in the family - surely it's Ivanka to get the nod...
The other day Trump was talking about prosecuting Hillary if he becomes president.
There was a chap in the line for the caucus who was talking to Ted Cruz. ruz asked him who he was going to vote for, he said he was undecided but "Whoever is going to put Hilary in jail !"
From OP: The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.
In no-one's ideal world is Rubio the candidate. Even in this world, I suspect a lot of the GOP Establishment will prefer Trump as figurehead while the grown-ups get on with running the country.
Now, the point is not that Trump can be bought off; of course he can't, but remember a new President brings his whole retinue as Cabinet members, ambassadors, civil servants and so on. Cruz or Rubio would bring their teams from Texas or Florida. The beauty of Trump, from this perspective, is that he has no candidate in mind for Secretary of Housing or Ambassador to Berlin, so can easily be persuaded to rubber stamp the Establishment candidates.
Trump will pick his own people. He has already drafted Jeff Sessions' team to write his immigration policy. He is talking to the right people on foreign policy and ignoring the phoney neocon think tank fronts (follow the money).
Personally I don't see Sessions being his VP, more valuable in the Senate. I would throw out Kris Kobach as a possible. Seen Scott Brown and Rick Scott touted. Reality is I have no clue, but I hope he remembers the Nixonian principle that the VP not be an incentive to any would be plotters against their President.
Trump's VP choice is going to be very interesting, and something that we should start looking at seriously. If he wants a woman to at least slightly negate Hilary then who are we looking at - Sarah Palin?, Susana Martinez?, Presumably Condi Rice wouldn't be interested.
If you want the female vote then a good looking man is the ticket. Female solidarity is a myth.
I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?
I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
Not I for one.
Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.
Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.
Going to have to disagree with you Jack. People, including me, have been wrong about him crashing and burning time and again. Clinton is barely beating Sanders and Trump is a far more formidable opponent and debater than him. Clinton will try and get on on the back of liberals, black people, Hispanics and single women. Obama had a similar coalition to beat Romney. The problem is that liberals are disgusted with the way she has been treating Sanders, turnout among black people will be well down, Trump will do a lot better than expected among Hispanics leaving her with single women and feminists as her core constituency. It isn't going to be enough.
You may have been wrong about Trump- I wasn't.
Don't get hung up by the nomination. It's of limited relevance for the Dems - Remember how Clinton supporters in 08 told us that Obama couldn't unify the party after beating her. The problem for the GOP is more difficult as McCain and Romney had to tack to the right to secure the prize causing damage later on. Trump doesn't have this problem but plenty of others.
The Nomination Game and the General Election are two entirely different ball games.
Obama was the insurgent in 08. Trump is the insurgent in 16. Hillary was and is the establishment candidate in both cases. Look at the way Trump swatted away Hillary's claims that he is a misogynist, she was completely lost as to how to respond. He breaks all of the normal rules of engagement in the US. Hillary isn't going to know what hit her if she ends up as the nominee.
Anyway, her coalition isn't broad enough as I pointed out.
The other day Trump was talking about prosecuting Hillary if he becomes president.
Can you imagine that in the debates?
(Turns to camera). "Elect me, and she goes to jail..."
From OP: The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.
In no-one's ideal world is Rubio the candidate. Even in this world, I suspect a lot of the GOP Establishment will prefer Trump as figurehead while the grown-ups get on with running the country.
Now, the point is not that Trump can be bought off; of course he can't, but remember a new President brings his whole retinue as Cabinet members, ambassadors, civil servants and so on. Cruz or Rubio would bring their teams from Texas or Florida. The beauty of Trump, from this perspective, is that he has no candidate in mind for Secretary of Housing or Ambassador to Berlin, so can easily be persuaded to rubber stamp the Establishment candidates.
Trump will pick his own people. He has already drafted Jeff Sessions' team to write his immigration policy. He is talking to the right people on foreign policy and ignoring the phoney neocon think tank fronts (follow the money).
Personally I don't see Sessions being his VP, more valuable in the Senate. I would throw out Kris Kobach as a possible. Seen Scott Brown and Rick Scott touted. Reality is I have no clue, but I hope he remembers the Nixonian principle that the VP not be an incentive to any would be plotters against their President.
Trump's VP choice is going to be very interesting, and something that we should start looking at seriously. If he wants a woman to at least slightly negate Hilary then who are we looking at - Sarah Palin?, Susana Martinez?, Presumably Condi Rice wouldn't be interested.
Rubio is probably being pencilled in at the moment.
Pencilled in by who? Sure the GOP would like that, but as I understand it it's Trump's choice and I just don't see him playing by the rules and picking one of the other candidates. His whole schtick is doing things differently, why would his VP pick be any different?
That's a good point, but he may also want to mend fences within the GOP. Trump will just spin it as "different" when he does it. Remember that Rubio came in on the Tea Party ticket so he is hardly the establishment figure that people love to say he is. Bush and Kasich were/are the establishment candidates.
The embarrassing thing is if Cameron's mother saw the people on here who are bigging up her sons comments, she'd probably advise them to upgrade to Corbyns look
Out with a group of ovewr 60’s “exercise walking” ie brisk, this morning. Discussed the referendum. Two of us were confirmed “Remains", one has swtiched from “In" in ’75 to” Leave” now but the other two felt that as their children/grandchildren were for “Remain," they should vote that way too, however they themselves felt. “After all, it’s their future!"
Hilary is going to get the nomination by racking up a humungous black vote in deep blood red conservative GOP states. Meanwhile the Rustbelt looks well in play for any of the GOP:
Ohio General Election Matchups:
Kasich 54 Clinton 37 Kasich 54 Sanders 35
Rubio 47 Clinton 42 Rubio 44 Sanders 42
Cruz 46 Clinton 43 Cruz 42 Sanders 44
Trump 44 Clinton 42 Trump 44 Sanders 44
Max GOP: 54 Max Dem: 42
Hilary behind Cruz in Ohio - surely that ain't a great sign.
Democrats won't even need Ohio, given they'll destroy the Republicans in Virginia with Trump as their nominee.
Can't see any military man being fool enough to serve under a childish, impulsive ego maniac like Trump.
Well they reluctantly served under the childish, impulsive ego maniac that is Obama. Trump has earned a lot respect from the brass for his comments on Bush and Iraq as well as his criticism of Obama and Hilary's policies on the Iraq/Syria/Ukraine/Russia/Libya.
Sloppy, most likely. The letter would already be attacked as being organised by No.10 (a bizarre complaint, to my view), but there being a name on it that shouldn't be on it makes any other attack more credible and undermines its point. I fail to see the upside in deliberately including a name which shouldn't be on it.
A few explanations (views that may be held by many members, not necessarily my views). Most of them, obviously, include the belief that it's not a
1) Heroic martyrs None of the alternatives look any more likely to win elections unless they become so indistinguishable from the Tories that there really isn't a point (cf failing to oppose the welfare bill, for example). If you're going to die anyway, you might as well do it with your head held high.
2) Syriza-before-the-beasting Politics is about moving the discourse towards your position, not just blowing with the wind of public opinion. Corbyn is the only candidate who seems to have any interest in this approach. It's difficult to work out what the other candidates really believe in other than being slightly nicer than the Tories in as-yet-unspecified ways. It may lead to electoral oblivion, but there's a chance that we could change things rather than just give up all hope.
3) Nationalism-is-popular
A lot of Miliband's most left-wing policies actually polled pretty well. The SNP played at left-wing and didn't do so badly either. The problem isn't the policies, it's the presentation; this is the kind of prospectus Labour should be promoting. While Corbyn doesn't excel on the presentation front, nobody else offered the right policies so he's the only real option.
4) Anti-politics Establishment candidates aren't doing so well. Trump, Sanders etc etc. Conviction politics is where it's at.
Cheers. I pretty much get why he was elected - the other candidates were not inspiring, even though all of them would be doing better than Corbyn is now. What stumps me is the on-going enthusiasm when he is so clearly electoral poison and the Tories are clearly all over the place. What's more, if Corbyn were to stand down McDonnell is the man the members seem to want to replace him. These are not serious people.
Under our FPTP system, not being the other party is sometimes what you have to be. There are damaging things that the Tories are doing now in areas such as housing and the NHS that a Labour government would not be doing, even if it was not marching towards bright, sunlit uplands. That in itself would surely be better than nothing at all. It may not be inspiring, but so what?
The SNP has studiously avoided left wing policies for all the time it has been in power. It is just about to give Scots a tax cut, with the best off getting the most. What they have is a flag. Corbyn Labour has allowed itself - probably accurately - to be portrayed as anti-patriotic.
@Polruan - Cheers. I pretty much get why he was elected - the other candidates were not inspiring, even though all of them would be doing better than Corbyn is now. What stumps me is the on-going enthusiasm when he is so obviously electoral poison and the Tories are clearly all over the place and so ripe for an opposition that can take the fight to them. What's more, if Corbyn were to stand down McDonnell is the man Labour members seem to want to replace him. These are not serious people.
Under our FPTP system, not being the other party is sometimes what you have to be. There are damaging things that the Tories are doing now in areas such as housing and the NHS that a Labour government would not be doing, even if it was not marching towards bright, sunlit, left-wing uplands. That in itself would surely be better than nothing at all. It may not be inspiring, but so what?
The SNP has studiously avoided left wing policies for all the time it has been in power. It is just about to give Scots a tax cut, with the best off getting the most. What they have is a flag. Corbyn Labour has allowed itself - probably accurately - to be portrayed as anti-patriotic.
Hilary is going to get the nomination by racking up a humungous black vote in deep blood red conservative GOP states. Meanwhile the Rustbelt looks well in play for any of the GOP:
Ohio General Election Matchups:
Kasich 54 Clinton 37 Kasich 54 Sanders 35
Rubio 47 Clinton 42 Rubio 44 Sanders 42
Cruz 46 Clinton 43 Cruz 42 Sanders 44
Trump 44 Clinton 42 Trump 44 Sanders 44
Max GOP: 54 Max Dem: 42
Hilary behind Cruz in Ohio - surely that ain't a great sign.
This is my point, without a very strong showing from liberals and blue collar whites Hillary has a very difficult path to victory. Blue collar whites, middle class whites a surprisingly decent number of Hispanics and conservatives will turn out for Trump. A lot of liberals I know are seething about the way Hillary is undermining the Sanders campaign and might just stay home even if Trump gets the GOP nomination.
Can't see any military man being fool enough to serve under a childish, impulsive ego maniac like Trump.
Well they reluctantly served under the childish, impulsive ego maniac that is Obama. Trump has earned a lot respect from the brass for his comments on Bush and Iraq as well as his criticism of Obama and Hilary's policies on the Iraq/Syria/Ukraine/Russia/Libya.
Watching the Tories here slip so easily between hared of 'Jez' and an even stronger hatred of Dave leaves me breathless.
I love Jez and Dave.
Only Jez's fashion sense annoys me. I know I'm a fashion snob, as I'm currently wearing a £550 Hugo Boss suit, so my fashion tastes are very high.
I've walked the length and breadth of Savile Row, and I'm struggling to find "Hugo Boss", but I'm amazed you can get a tailor made suit for £550.
I generously decided not to make that point
If you are looking for a new tailor, though, these guys have always been good for me (I followed Joshua when he broke away from Henry Poole after Arthur Catchpole was forced out)
It's going to be interesting to see whether the "electoral poison" assessment is accurate after May. The Heroic Martyr faction won't change its mind even if there's a wipeout in May but the other three groups are likely to soften to varying degrees if the grand message of hope/leftwing policy/screw the establishment schtick isn't translated to votes. Currently I'd say they believe it will be.
For me the big problem is that Corbyn has now been given a chance and has shown that he isn't a communicator who can change the terms of debate - but until Labour has one of those available, it's kind of screwed regardless of which wing is leading. A left wing party needs a leader who can sell hope better than a right wing party can sell fear - the current incumbents are dreadful and fantastic at their respective jobs.
Watching the Tories here slip so easily between hared of 'Jez' and an even stronger hatred of Dave leaves me breathless.
I love Jez and Dave.
Only Jez's fashion sense annoys me. I know I'm a fashion snob, as I'm currently wearing a £550 Hugo Boss suit, so my fashion tastes are very high.
I've walked the length and breadth of Savile Row, and I'm struggling to find "Hugo Boss", but I'm amazed you can get a tailor made suit for £550.
I generously decided not to make that point
If you are looking for a new tailor, though, these guys have always been good for me (I followed Joshua when he broke away from Henry Poole after Arthur Catchpole was forced out)
Watching the Tories here slip so easily between hared of 'Jez' and an even stronger hatred of Dave leaves me breathless.
I love Jez and Dave.
Only Jez's fashion sense annoys me. I know I'm a fashion snob, as I'm currently wearing a £550 Hugo Boss suit, so my fashion tastes are very high.
I've walked the length and breadth of Savile Row, and I'm struggling to find "Hugo Boss", but I'm amazed you can get a tailor made suit for £550.
I generously decided not to make that point
If you are looking for a new tailor, though, these guys have always been good for me (I followed Joshua when he broke away from Henry Poole after Arthur Catchpole was forced out)
@Pulpstar - I don't see the evidence it'll be a slam dunk for Hillary if she's up against Trump.
I'd say 55:45 to Hillary at the moment but, that could change, and depends very much which states are in play.
What would make such a contest particularly interesting is that some of the states which previously have been the main battlegrounds might not be this time round, and vice versa.
I struggle to understand why anyone would pay that much for off the rack suit. You can get a guy to fly in from Thailand and get a quality tailored suit for £350.
Hilary is going to get the nomination by racking up a humungous black vote in deep blood red conservative GOP states. Meanwhile the Rustbelt looks well in play for any of the GOP:
Ohio General Election Matchups:
Kasich 54 Clinton 37 Kasich 54 Sanders 35
Rubio 47 Clinton 42 Rubio 44 Sanders 42
Cruz 46 Clinton 43 Cruz 42 Sanders 44
Trump 44 Clinton 42 Trump 44 Sanders 44
Max GOP: 54 Max Dem: 42
Hilary behind Cruz in Ohio - surely that ain't a great sign.
This is my point, without a very strong showing from liberals and blue collar whites Hillary has a very difficult path to victory. Blue collar whites, middle class whites a surprisingly decent number of Hispanics and conservatives will turn out for Trump. A lot of liberals I know are seething about the way Hillary is undermining the Sanders campaign and might just stay home even if Trump gets the GOP nomination.
McConell says they will not hold confirmation hearings for the Supreme Court. If so this is what will drive Dem turnout as now disillusioned Sanders voters have something to vote for that isn't Hilary.
@politicshome: OMG. PM just said: My mother would say "put on a proper suit, do up your tie and sing the national anthem". https://t.co/qLfXQb7gcy
I am currently in the Cameron camp both for EU & PM but I really don't like his public school Flashman bullying persona. He doesn't need to do it, he should be well capable of attacking Boris & Corbyn in a more statesmanlike and less personal manner.
I am beginning to wonder whether now he is coming to the end of his premiership we are seeing the real personality coming to the fore and what went before was the PR image. Sad if so because it will tarnish his legacy. However clever he thinks he is being nobody likes a bully particularly a smug arrogant bully. I increasingly find I like the politics but not the person.
Sorry for being late to the party, so these comments may already have been made, but 1/2 is still well too long for Trump. I said this morning that he shouldn't be longer than 1/4. Given the scale of his win in Nevada, I'd make that no more than 1/5 now.
Where I disagree with Mike is the comment that
The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.
Rubio might be the best candidate in the field for the others to unite around but if he was that good he'd be doing a lot better than he is. So far, his record reads 3rd, 5th, 2nd, 2nd (and his two seconds were marginal victories over third, way back from Trump). No candidate has won the GOP nomination without a win in one of the first four states since 1940, when (1) primaries were of far less importance, and (2) the nature of the issues changed hugely between the primaries and the convention, leaving those who did win them on the wrong side of the isolationist/interventionist divide.
Trump is polling at the equivalent of about 42% nationally once undecided are stripped out, with Rubio at 18%. Put another way, if everyone else dropped out, Trump would only need about one-fifth of the other 40% to take him over half, and given that he already leads Rubio by 66 delegates, he doesn't even need half.
And Cruz is not going to withdraw in favour of someone who is behind him in the polls, repetitive on the campaign trail and has a record so far that is certainly no better than Cruz's. The only thing that would cause Cruz to withdraw soon would be if he loses his home state of Texas on March 1. However, firstly, that's unlikely to happen and secondly, if it did, Trump would increase his lead over Rubio by 90-100 more delegates.
The only person who can stop Trump now is not Rubio, it's Trump.
I struggle to understand why anyone would pay that much for off the rack suit. You can get a guy to fly in from Thailand and get a quality tailored suit for £350.
Can't see any military man being fool enough to serve under a childish, impulsive ego maniac like Trump.
Well they reluctantly served under the childish, impulsive ego maniac that is Obama. Trump has earned a lot respect from the brass for his comments on Bush and Iraq as well as his criticism of Obama and Hilary's policies on the Iraq/Syria/Ukraine/Russia/Libya.
The vast difference in endorsements between Obama and Trump shows the difference in respect they are held. Also Obama is widely acknowledged as cerebral, cautious type - and Republicans criticised this during campaign. Only in GOP land is the guy both an aloof intellectual and also an angry black man!! Makes more sense than being a Godless communist and a secret radical Muslim though!!
@Pulpstar - I don't see the evidence it'll be a slam dunk for Hillary if she's up against Trump.
I'd say 55:45 to Hillary at the moment but, that could change, and depends very much which states are in play.
What would make such a contest particularly interesting is that some of the states which previously have been the main battlegrounds might not be this time round, and vice versa.
Will be Colorado, Florida, Ohio again I suspect. Though Trump will try to expand map as he'll be so stranded in Virginia, he'll fail.
@Pulpstar - I don't see the evidence it'll be a slam dunk for Hillary if she's up against Trump.
I'd say 55:45 to Hillary at the moment but, that could change, and depends very much which states are in play.
What would make such a contest particularly interesting is that some of the states which previously have been the main battlegrounds might not be this time round, and vice versa.
New York might be interesting given that both have their bases there.
Sorry for being late to the party, so these comments may already have been made, but 1/2 is still well too long for Trump. I said this morning that he shouldn't be longer than 1/4. Given the scale of his win in Nevada, I'd make that no more than 1/5 now.
Where I disagree with Mike is the comment that
The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.
Rubio might be the best candidate in the field for the others to unite around but if he was that good he'd be doing a lot better than he is. So far, his record reads 3rd, 5th, 2nd, 2nd (and his two seconds were marginal victories over third, way back from Trump). No candidate has won the GOP nomination without a win in one of the first four states since 1940, when (1) primaries were of far less importance, and (2) the nature of the issues changed hugely between the primaries and the convention, leaving those who did win them on the wrong side of the isolationist/interventionist divide.
Trump is polling at the equivalent of about 42% nationally once undecided are stripped out, with Rubio at 18%. Put another way, if everyone else dropped out, Trump would only need about one-fifth of the other 40% to take him over half, and given that he already leads Rubio by 66 delegates, he doesn't even need half.
And Cruz is not going to withdraw in favour of someone who is behind him in the polls, repetitive on the campaign trail and has a record so far that is certainly no better than Cruz's. The only thing that would cause Cruz to withdraw soon would be if he loses his home state of Texas on March 1. However, firstly, that's unlikely to happen and secondly, if it did, Trump would increase his lead over Rubio by 90-100 more delegates.
The only person who can stop Trump now is not Rubio, it's Trump.
@politicshome: OMG. PM just said: My mother would say "put on a proper suit, do up your tie and sing the national anthem". https://t.co/qLfXQb7gcy
I am currently in the Cameron camp both for EU & PM but I really don't like his public school Flashman bullying persona. He doesn't need to do it, he should be well capable of attacking Boris & Corbyn in a more statesmanlike and less personal manner.
I am beginning to wonder whether now he is coming to the end of his premiership we are seeing the real personality coming to the fore and what went before was the PR image. Sad if so because it will tarnish his legacy. However clever he thinks he is being nobody likes a bully particularly a smug arrogant bully. I increasingly find I like the politics but not the person.
It isn't possible to 'bully' the leader of the opposition if that person is up to the job. He or she should be the PMs equal.
@Pulpstar - I don't see the evidence it'll be a slam dunk for Hillary if she's up against Trump.
I'd say 55:45 to Hillary at the moment but, that could change, and depends very much which states are in play.
What would make such a contest particularly interesting is that some of the states which previously have been the main battlegrounds might not be this time round, and vice versa.
New York might be interesting given that both have their bases there.
Lol It is all over if New York goes GOP. Landslide for Trump.
@Pulpstar - I don't see the evidence it'll be a slam dunk for Hillary if she's up against Trump.
I'd say 55:45 to Hillary at the moment but, that could change, and depends very much which states are in play.
What would make such a contest particularly interesting is that some of the states which previously have been the main battlegrounds might not be this time round, and vice versa.
New York might be interesting given that both have their bases there.
Lol It is all over if New York goes GOP. Landslide for Trump.
Watching the Tories here slip so easily between hared of 'Jez' and an even stronger hatred of Dave leaves me breathless.
I love Jez and Dave.
Only Jez's fashion sense annoys me. I know I'm a fashion snob, as I'm currently wearing a £550 Hugo Boss suit, so my fashion tastes are very high.
I've walked the length and breadth of Savile Row, and I'm struggling to find "Hugo Boss", but I'm amazed you can get a tailor made suit for £550.
I generously decided not to make that point
If you are looking for a new tailor, though, these guys have always been good for me (I followed Joshua when he broke away from Henry Poole after Arthur Catchpole was forced out)
In terms of finished product rather than process (or price!) what is the difference between bespoke and made to measure?
I was going to ask Joshua that next time I see him!
In theory, I think, Made to Measure is one measurement and then they make you a suit, whereas Bespoke you get as many fittings and tweaks as you need to make it perfect.
@Pulpstar - I don't see the evidence it'll be a slam dunk for Hillary if she's up against Trump.
I'd say 55:45 to Hillary at the moment but, that could change, and depends very much which states are in play.
What would make such a contest particularly interesting is that some of the states which previously have been the main battlegrounds might not be this time round, and vice versa.
New York might be interesting given that both have their bases there.
Lol It is all over if New York goes GOP. Landslide for Trump.
Watching the Tories here slip so easily between hared of 'Jez' and an even stronger hatred of Dave leaves me breathless.
I love Jez and Dave.
Only Jez's fashion sense annoys me. I know I'm a fashion snob, as I'm currently wearing a £550 Hugo Boss suit, so my fashion tastes are very high.
I've walked the length and breadth of Savile Row, and I'm struggling to find "Hugo Boss", but I'm amazed you can get a tailor made suit for £550.
I generously decided not to make that point
If you are looking for a new tailor, though, these guys have always been good for me (I followed Joshua when he broke away from Henry Poole after Arthur Catchpole was forced out)
@Pulpstar - I don't see the evidence it'll be a slam dunk for Hillary if she's up against Trump.
I'd say 55:45 to Hillary at the moment but, that could change, and depends very much which states are in play.
What would make such a contest particularly interesting is that some of the states which previously have been the main battlegrounds might not be this time round, and vice versa.
New York might be interesting given that both have their bases there.
Lol It is all over if New York goes GOP. Landslide for Trump.
Sounds like they'd make a great team. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/239467-meet-the-gops-unconventional-new-star "She stands just 5 feet 3 inches, but McSally has never run from a fight. In 2001, she won a lawsuit against then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, overturning a policy requiring U.S. servicewomen to wear Muslim garb and cover up when traveling off base in Saudi Arabia.
Now she’s taking on the Pentagon once again.
Her top mission in Congress so far: Save the A-10 Warthog, which sits on the budget chopping block but is the economic engine of her Tucson-based district.
In congressional hearings, TV interviews and a New York Times op-ed on Monday, McSally has been sounding the alarm: Shelving the A-10 would mean “American troops will die.”
She would know. McSally became the first female pilot to fly in combat in 1995, flying the A-10 on missions over Iraq and Kuwait. Nearly a decade later, she would make history once again. At Tucson’s Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, McSally took charge of an A-10 squadron, making her the first woman in the Air Force to command a fighter squadron.
Asked if there was any political risk in focusing too much on the A-10, McSally quickly shot down the idea.
“Dude, have you seen what I’ve been doing for the last 101 days? … We’ve been doing a million issues,” McSally said, rattling off her legislative efforts to combat drug cartel “spotters” and improve care for military vets amid a Veterans Affairs scandal. She also hosted 20 House lawmakers in her district to get a first-hand look at the border with Mexico.
“I am not a one-issue congresswoman. It’s just that this issue is so important and I am the person who has the first-hand experience. They can’t pull the wool over my eyes with their responses.”
The other day Trump was talking about prosecuting Hillary if he becomes president.
Can you imagine that in the debates?
(Turns to camera). "Elect me, and she goes to jail..."
It's a mistake to price in all the Clinton scandal stories and rumours from the past if she's up against Trump. He will make sure there are news cycles dominated by the kind of material that you'd normally only find in the National Enquirer.
I don't think it matters one jot. The Trump juggernaut is unstoppable for the GOP nomination. My major concern is will it take on enough momentum to take him to POTUS?
I'd be interested here. How many people genuinely think Trump will be the next POTUS because I am seriously starting to have my doubts
Not I for one.
Trump has effectively sewn up the GOP nomination but becoming POTUS is a whole different ball game.
Think on one factor. Why have the GOP establishment and their fellow travelers been desperate to avoid a Trump candidacy - They know he will crash and burn against Clinton.
Going to have to disagree with you Jack. People, including me, have been wrong about him crashing and burning time and again. Clinton is barely beating Sanders and Trump is a far more formidable opponent and debater than him. Clinton will try and get on on the back of liberals, black people, Hispanics and single women. Obama had a similar coalition to beat Romney. The problem is that liberals are disgusted with the way she has been treating Sanders, turnout among black people will be well down, Trump will do a lot better than expected among Hispanics leaving her with single women and feminists as her core constituency. It isn't going to be enough.
You may have been wrong about Trump- I wasn't.
Don't get hung up by the nomination. It's of limited relevance for the Dems - Remember how Clinton supporters in 08 told us that Obama couldn't unify the party after beating her. The problem for the GOP is more difficult as McCain and Romney had to tack to the right to secure the prize causing damage later on. Trump doesn't have this problem but plenty of others.
The Nomination Game and the General Election are two entirely different ball games.
Fully agree, GE will be a very different affair and a Trump candidacy will unite and galvanise the Democrats like no other. I also suspect that there will be a lot of liberally inclined suburban Republicans around the big swing states that will not be able to stomach the idea of Trump as POTUS, they will either sit it out or vote for Hillary.
@Pulpstar - I don't see the evidence it'll be a slam dunk for Hillary if she's up against Trump.
I'd say 55:45 to Hillary at the moment but, that could change, and depends very much which states are in play.
What would make such a contest particularly interesting is that some of the states which previously have been the main battlegrounds might not be this time round, and vice versa.
New York might be interesting given that both have their bases there.
New York will be a landslide for the Democrats.
Anywhere that has a lot of educated people, Trump will get buried. His birther nonsense against Obama has destroyed his reputation among blacks and his rapist smears against Mexicans will do same among Hispanics. There aren't enough angry white guys.
Comments
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cb43YIwXIAA5fZC.jpg
With that kind of reporting standard, I'm not giving the rest of its output much credence.
Almost like deja vu of PB over the past few days.
1) Heroic martyrs
None of the alternatives look any more likely to win elections unless they become so indistinguishable from the Tories that there really isn't a point (cf failing to oppose the welfare bill, for example). If you're going to die anyway, you might as well do it with your head held high.
2) Syriza-before-the-beasting
Politics is about moving the discourse towards your position, not just blowing with the wind of public opinion. Corbyn is the only candidate who seems to have any interest in this approach. It's difficult to work out what the other candidates really believe in other than being slightly nicer than the Tories in as-yet-unspecified ways. It may lead to electoral oblivion, but there's a chance that we could change things rather than just give up all hope.
3) Nationalism-is-popular
A lot of Miliband's most left-wing policies actually polled pretty well. The SNP played at left-wing and didn't do so badly either. The problem isn't the policies, it's the presentation; this is the kind of prospectus Labour should be promoting. While Corbyn doesn't excel on the presentation front, nobody else offered the right policies so he's the only real option.
4) Anti-politics
Establishment candidates aren't doing so well. Trump, Sanders etc etc. Conviction politics is where it's at.
I will expect there to be ludicrous desperate comments made by Fox/ CNN etc in the next week (up to super Tuesday) until it is clear that Mr Trump will win the nomination.
But, I am sure, Mr Trump is unlikely to be magnanimous towards biased media. Obama kicked the 'right-wing press' out of the oval office. I suspect that Mr Trump will follow suit.
(I suspect the BBC won't be allowed within 10 miles of the White House post January 2017, if Mr Trump wins.)
Ed was never as bad as Jezza...
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2016/feb/24/pmqs-verdict-what-would-camerons-mother-say-to-corbyn?CMP=twt_gu
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_McSally
Ohio General Election Matchups:
Kasich 54 Clinton 37
Kasich 54 Sanders 35
Rubio 47 Clinton 42
Rubio 44 Sanders 42
Cruz 46 Clinton 43
Cruz 42 Sanders 44
Trump 44 Clinton 42
Trump 44 Sanders 44
Max GOP: 54
Max Dem: 42
Hilary behind Cruz in Ohio - surely that ain't a great sign.
(Turns to camera). "Elect me, and she goes to jail..."
Trump's VP pick will be fascinating to see.
Very sloppy. Or deliberately so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqA2Hs5dTFM
Well it's a question of how many people notice the original list of names and how many notice the brief furore that comes after.
The same reason why tabloid papers run stories they know aren't true and may well have to retract later.
Under our FPTP system, not being the other party is sometimes what you have to be. There are damaging things that the Tories are doing now in areas such as housing and the NHS that a Labour government would not be doing, even if it was not marching towards bright, sunlit, left-wing uplands. That in itself would surely be better than nothing at all. It may not be inspiring, but so what?
The SNP has studiously avoided left wing policies for all the time it has been in power. It is just about to give Scots a tax cut, with the best off getting the most. What they have is a flag. Corbyn Labour has allowed itself - probably accurately - to be portrayed as anti-patriotic.
Available in the Labour shop for a mere £6: a 'straight talking, honest politics' pint glass. https://t.co/WT3iG6VoNe
http://order-order.com/2016/02/24/suzanne-evans-out-as-ukip-deputy-chair/
The way they have been treated is one of his constant themes.
If you are looking for a new tailor, though, these guys have always been good for me (I followed Joshua when he broke away from Henry Poole after Arthur Catchpole was forced out)
http://www.byrneandburge.com/
EuroNews
Hungary will hold referendum on EU migrant quotas
PM #Orbán: #HUN govt has decided to call a referendum on the #EU's proposed mandatory #migrant quota scheme
the house of cards is falling.
Edited for spelling.Cataract operation in six seeks. Should be able to see both screen and keyboard then!
Democratic presidential preference: Clinton 58% Sanders 28% (Goucher Poll, 2/13-18)
in terms of an expected vote outcome.
Given we know "others" will be ~ 0.1% at the most,
HRC 67 Sanders 33 or is that wrong ?
For me the big problem is that Corbyn has now been given a chance and has shown that he isn't a communicator who can change the terms of debate - but until Labour has one of those available, it's kind of screwed regardless of which wing is leading. A left wing party needs a leader who can sell hope better than a right wing party can sell fear - the current incumbents are dreadful and fantastic at their respective jobs.
But Mr Cameron risks a fresh row because the authors behind that study said it would be "rash and misleading" to assume the toll was avoidable.
And the study covered Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday, not just the weekend as we know it.
For work, I go to the Hugo Boss shop and buy the suits they've already made
http://www.hugoboss.com/uk/suit-guide/#custom_regular_fit
I'd say 55:45 to Hillary at the moment but, that could change, and depends very much which states are in play.
I am beginning to wonder whether now he is coming to the end of his premiership we are seeing the real personality coming to the fore and what went before was the PR image. Sad if so because it will tarnish his legacy. However clever he thinks he is being nobody likes a bully particularly a smug arrogant bully. I increasingly find I like the politics but not the person.
You get to decide everything esp material, including groovy linings for the jacket. And you get two pairs of trousers.
And if fits you like a glove. It really is a nice feeling.
Where I disagree with Mike is the comment that
The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.
Rubio might be the best candidate in the field for the others to unite around but if he was that good he'd be doing a lot better than he is. So far, his record reads 3rd, 5th, 2nd, 2nd (and his two seconds were marginal victories over third, way back from Trump). No candidate has won the GOP nomination without a win in one of the first four states since 1940, when (1) primaries were of far less importance, and (2) the nature of the issues changed hugely between the primaries and the convention, leaving those who did win them on the wrong side of the isolationist/interventionist divide.
Trump is polling at the equivalent of about 42% nationally once undecided are stripped out, with Rubio at 18%. Put another way, if everyone else dropped out, Trump would only need about one-fifth of the other 40% to take him over half, and given that he already leads Rubio by 66 delegates, he doesn't even need half.
And Cruz is not going to withdraw in favour of someone who is behind him in the polls, repetitive on the campaign trail and has a record so far that is certainly no better than Cruz's. The only thing that would cause Cruz to withdraw soon would be if he loses his home state of Texas on March 1. However, firstly, that's unlikely to happen and secondly, if it did, Trump would increase his lead over Rubio by 90-100 more delegates.
The only person who can stop Trump now is not Rubio, it's Trump.
He was an impressive dresser.
Taken from Trump vs Hilary matchups.
No data for Nevada or North Carolina
Can I ask how you'd price up a Hillary/Trump GE?
In theory, I think, Made to Measure is one measurement and then they make you a suit, whereas Bespoke you get as many fittings and tweaks as you need to make it perfect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKHFZBUTA4k
I can't believe it's been 4 yrs since unfortunate corndog photos.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/239467-meet-the-gops-unconventional-new-star
"She stands just 5 feet 3 inches, but McSally has never run from a fight. In 2001, she won a lawsuit against then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, overturning a policy requiring U.S. servicewomen to wear Muslim garb and cover up when traveling off base in Saudi Arabia.
Now she’s taking on the Pentagon once again.
Her top mission in Congress so far: Save the A-10 Warthog, which sits on the budget chopping block but is the economic engine of her Tucson-based district.
In congressional hearings, TV interviews and a New York Times op-ed on Monday, McSally has been sounding the alarm: Shelving the A-10 would mean “American troops will die.”
She would know. McSally became the first female pilot to fly in combat in 1995, flying the A-10 on missions over Iraq and Kuwait. Nearly a decade later, she would make history once again. At Tucson’s Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, McSally took charge of an A-10 squadron, making her the first woman in the Air Force to command a fighter squadron.
Asked if there was any political risk in focusing too much on the A-10, McSally quickly shot down the idea.
“Dude, have you seen what I’ve been doing for the last 101 days? … We’ve been doing a million issues,” McSally said, rattling off her legislative efforts to combat drug cartel “spotters” and improve care for military vets amid a Veterans Affairs scandal. She also hosted 20 House lawmakers in her district to get a first-hand look at the border with Mexico.
“I am not a one-issue congresswoman. It’s just that this issue is so important and I am the person who has the first-hand experience. They can’t pull the wool over my eyes with their responses.”
But when your Dad has pals who knows.
Anywhere that has a lot of educated people, Trump will get buried. His birther nonsense against Obama has destroyed his reputation among blacks and his rapist smears against Mexicans will do same among Hispanics. There aren't enough angry white guys.