I realised I made an error with the boundary figures I mentioned earlier. The spreadsheet was a bit confusing and I was looking at local electorates. The BCE has now released the correct regional allocations:
East - 57 (-1) E Mids- 44 (-2) London - 68 (-5) NE - 25 (-4) NW - 68 (-7) SE - 81 + 1 IOW (-1) SW - 53 (-2) W Mids - 53 (-6) Yorks 50 (-4)
Three weeks today, 60% of the Republican delegates will have been won.
Not sure when it becomes arithmetically impossible to beat him, but it's already looking close to it in practice, unless something dramatic changes in the next couple of weeks.
Sorry for being late to the party, so these comments may already have been made, but 1/2 is still well too long for Trump. I said this morning that he shouldn't be longer than 1/4. Given the scale of his win in Nevada, I'd make that no more than 1/5 now.
Where I disagree with Mike is the comment that
The only way that Trump can be stopped is if there’s one anti-Trump candidate ideally Rubio.
Rubio might be the best candidate in the field for the others to unite around but if he was that good he'd be doing a lot better than he is. So far, his record reads 3rd, 5th, 2nd, 2nd (and his two seconds were marginal victories over third, way back from Trump). No candidate has won the GOP nomination without a win in one of the first four states since 1940, when (1) primaries were of far less importance, and (2) the nature of the issues changed hugely between the primaries and the convention, leaving those who did win them on the wrong side of the isolationist/interventionist divide.
Trump is polling at the equivalent of about 42% nationally once undecided are stripped out, with Rubio at 18%. Put another way, if everyone else dropped out, Trump would only need about one-fifth of the other 40% to take him over half, and given that he already leads Rubio by 66 delegates, he doesn't even need half.
And Cruz is not going to withdraw in favour of someone who is behind him in the polls, repetitive on the campaign trail and has a record so far that is certainly no better than Cruz's. The only thing that would cause Cruz to withdraw soon would be if he loses his home state of Texas on March 1. However, firstly, that's unlikely to happen and secondly, if it did, Trump would increase his lead over Rubio by 90-100 more delegates.
The only person who can stop Trump now is not Rubio, it's Trump.
Thanks David. You speak sense.
Can I ask how you'd price up a Hillary/Trump GE?
With great caution.
Hillary ought to be favourite based on current polling and ratings but not by much. The scope for events to intervene between now and November is huge. Trump is a more charismatic character and has far more presence on the stage. On the other hand, his manner clearly turns a lot of voters off as, I suspect, his being a loose cannon does. Then again, we don't know where Hillary's e-mails will take her.
As a finger-in-the-air, I'd say 11/8 Trump vs 8/11 Hillary.
"No other prime minister, not even Margaret Thatcher, has succeeded in rolling back the tide on European integration. We now have a “special status”. In Europe, but not ruled by it. We’re not signed up to “ever closer union”, our currency is protected forever. So is the role of the City of London as the EU’s principal financial centre, the main global centre for trading in the euro ironically enough. We’ve stopped the abuse of our benefits system by a few and protected the real benefits of immigration for our economy. In short we’ve secured the best of both worlds."
@politicshome: OMG. PM just said: My mother would say "put on a proper suit, do up your tie and sing the national anthem". https://t.co/qLfXQb7gcy
I am currently in the Cameron camp both for EU & PM but I really don't like his public school Flashman bullying persona. He doesn't need to do it, he should be well capable of attacking Boris & Corbyn in a more statesmanlike and less personal manner.
I am beginning to wonder whether now he is coming to the end of his premiership we are seeing the real personality coming to the fore and what went before was the PR image. Sad if so because it will tarnish his legacy. However clever he thinks he is being nobody likes a bully particularly a smug arrogant bully. I increasingly find I like the politics but not the person.
It isn't possible to 'bully' the leader of the opposition if that person is up to the job. He or she should be the PMs equal.
Of course you can, you can have a bullying manner whoever you are talking to and I find it a very unpleasant characteristic of our PM which we seem to be seeing more frequently. If you are saying that Corbyn should not be able to be intimidated than I agree, and I doubt he was even though I can't stand the man.
Three weeks today, 60% of the Republican delegates will have been won.
Not sure when it becomes arithmetically impossible to beat him, but it's already looking close to it in practice, unless something dramatic changes in the next couple of weeks.
He's got a FOX debate with Megyn Kelly coming up !
I realised I made an error with the boundary figures I mentioned earlier. The spreadsheet was a bit confusing and I was looking at local electorates. The BCE has now released the correct regional allocations:
East - 57 (-1) E Mids- 44 (-2) London - 68 (-5) NE - 25 (-4) NW - 68 (-7) SE - 81 + 1 IOW (-1) SW - 53 (-2) W Mids - 53 (-6) Yorks 50 (-4)
@Pulpstar - I don't see the evidence it'll be a slam dunk for Hillary if she's up against Trump.
I'd say 55:45 to Hillary at the moment but, that could change, and depends very much which states are in play.
What would make such a contest particularly interesting is that some of the states which previously have been the main battlegrounds might not be this time round, and vice versa.
New York might be interesting given that both have their bases there.
Lol It is all over if New York goes GOP. Landslide for Trump.
I am not wandering into US politics after my last effort, but I have a sneaky feeling that the only way Trump wins is to revive the old Reagan Democrat meme. Reagan won in New York.
Huw Edwards is to anchor the next general election results show for the BBC, taking over the role filled by David Dimbleby since 1979, the corporation has confirmed.
When the Guardian revealed that the veteran presenter would front the EU referendum results night on 23 June, doubts were cast on the future role for Edwards.
However, a spokesman for the BBC moved to quash such doubts: “Huw Edwards will anchor all the BBC’s main election programming up to and including the general election of 2020.”
Although Edwards will lead the coverage of local elections on 5 May, the Guardian understands that Andrew Neil, the Daily Politics host, is being lined up to host the BBC’s US election coverage on 8 November.
Labour will be pleased that individual registration hasn't hit them as had as some people were expecting, and the Tories may be disappointed it hasn't benefited them more.
@Pulpstar - I don't see the evidence it'll be a slam dunk for Hillary if she's up against Trump.
I'd say 55:45 to Hillary at the moment but, that could change, and depends very much which states are in play.
What would make such a contest particularly interesting is that some of the states which previously have been the main battlegrounds might not be this time round, and vice versa.
New York might be interesting given that both have their bases there.
Lol It is all over if New York goes GOP. Landslide for Trump.
I am not wandering into US politics after my last effort, but I have a sneaky feeling that the only way Trump wins is to revive the old Reagan Democrat meme. Reagan won in New York.
Labour will be pleased that individual registration hasn't hit them as had as some people were expecting, and the Tories may be disappointed it hasn't benefited them more.
So Jeremy Corbyn should "wear a proper suit" and sing "God save the Queen"? Ah, don't you just love Tory scum when the mask slips?
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
The January NBC/Wall Street Journal survey found that 65 percent of likely Republican voters could see themselves supporting Trump, a staggering jump from the 23 percent of voters who did last March, before he announced his presidential run. Cruz and Rubio fared modestly better, at 71 percent and 67 percent, respectively.
Quite how Cruz comes out at 65.0-70.0 and Rubio at 3.35-3.5 is, as Alastair and others have said, one of the great mysteries of political betting. Cruz is ahead of Rubio on national polls, ahead on most of the important state polls, had actually won a state, is marginally ahead on delegates, is ahead on proportion of GOP voters who could support him, and yet is seen as a no-hoper with Rubio seen as quite plausible.
Three weeks today, 60% of the Republican delegates will have been won.
Not sure when it becomes arithmetically impossible to beat him, but it's already looking close to it in practice, unless something dramatic changes in the next couple of weeks.
Using Rod's tool, if you assume a fair result for Rubio up to Florida, a win in Florida, and victories in all following states, he gets the nomination. However not by much.
Three weeks today, 60% of the Republican delegates will have been won.
Not sure when it becomes arithmetically impossible to beat him, but it's already looking close to it in practice, unless something dramatic changes in the next couple of weeks.
He's still only polling about 35% nationally (Nevada - 46% - is a strong state for him) and the race is structured with winner-take-all states later on.
If Trump won Florida & Ohio on Mar 15 - the first two big WTA states - then it would be all over. Right now, he looks value at 1/2 but I wouldn't be as short as some on here. The result on Super Tuesday, and the post-ST wrangling, will be absolutely key in determining whether Rubio can realistically fight on.
@Pulpstar - I don't see the evidence it'll be a slam dunk for Hillary if she's up against Trump.
I'd say 55:45 to Hillary at the moment but, that could change, and depends very much which states are in play.
What would make such a contest particularly interesting is that some of the states which previously have been the main battlegrounds might not be this time round, and vice versa.
New York might be interesting given that both have their bases there.
Lol It is all over if New York goes GOP. Landslide for Trump.
I am not wandering into US politics after my last effort, but I have a sneaky feeling that the only way Trump wins is to revive the old Reagan Democrat meme. Reagan won in New York.
"No other prime minister, not even Margaret Thatcher, has succeeded in rolling back the tide on European integration. We now have a “special status”. In Europe, but not ruled by it. We’re not signed up to “ever closer union”, our currency is protected forever. So is the role of the City of London as the EU’s principal financial centre, the main global centre for trading in the euro ironically enough. We’ve stopped the abuse of our benefits system by a few and protected the real benefits of immigration for our economy. In short we’ve secured the best of both worlds."
Well anyone who believes all that either can't read, has a remarkable capacity for self-delusion, or is just spinning for reasons unknown.
So Jeremy Corbyn should "wear a proper suit" and sing "God save the Queen"? Ah, don't you just love Tory scum when the mask slips?
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
Achieving Tory Scum status appears to be a very low bar. I thought you had to eat babies and hunt the homeless. Oh how times change.
The January NBC/Wall Street Journal survey found that 65 percent of likely Republican voters could see themselves supporting Trump, a staggering jump from the 23 percent of voters who did last March, before he announced his presidential run. Cruz and Rubio fared modestly better, at 71 percent and 67 percent, respectively.
Quite how Cruz comes out at 65.0-70.0 and Rubio at 3.35-3.5 is, as Alastair and others have said, one of the great mysteries of political betting. Cruz is ahead of Rubio on national polls, ahead on most of the important state polls, had actually won a state, is marginally ahead on delegates, is ahead on proportion of GOP voters who could support him, and yet is seen as a no-hoper with Rubio seen as quite plausible.
No, I don't get it either.
Rubio's too short.
If you imagine him at 6s/7s what you see is that Trump almost has this; only a sweep of "non-Trump" supporters could change that; and only Rubio and not Cruz could ever do that.
As it is, 3.4 implies Rubio could win without a dramatic move, which is clearly not right - if Rubio could, Cruz could (when in truth, neither can).
So Jeremy Corbyn should "wear a proper suit" and sing "God save the Queen"? Ah, don't you just love Tory scum when the mask slips?
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
I saw Jez at the Commons last November, I wasn't sure if I should say hello or give him spare change.
"No other prime minister, not even Margaret Thatcher, has succeeded in rolling back the tide on European integration. We now have a “special status”. In Europe, but not ruled by it. We’re not signed up to “ever closer union”, our currency is protected forever. So is the role of the City of London as the EU’s principal financial centre, the main global centre for trading in the euro ironically enough. We’ve stopped the abuse of our benefits system by a few and protected the real benefits of immigration for our economy. In short we’ve secured the best of both worlds."
Three weeks today, 60% of the Republican delegates will have been won.
Not sure when it becomes arithmetically impossible to beat him, but it's already looking close to it in practice, unless something dramatic changes in the next couple of weeks.
Well anyone who believes all that either can't read, has a remarkable capacity for self-delusion, or is just spinning for reasons unknown.
Quite possibly, but then the same has to be said of someone who professes to believe that No 10 would deliberately make the major gaffe of claiming support from a retired general without his permission.
So Jeremy Corbyn should "wear a proper suit" and sing "God save the Queen"? Ah, don't you just love Tory scum when the mask slips?
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
I saw Jez at the Commons last November, I wasn't sure if I should say hello or give him spare change.
So Jeremy Corbyn should "wear a proper suit" and sing "God save the Queen"? Ah, don't you just love Tory scum when the mask slips?
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
Gordon Brown chewed his finger nails to the quick.
So Jeremy Corbyn should "wear a proper suit" and sing "God save the Queen"? Ah, don't you just love Tory scum when the mask slips?
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
I saw Jez at the Commons last November, I wasn't sure if I should say hello or give him spare change.
"No other prime minister, not even Margaret Thatcher, has succeeded in rolling back the tide on European integration. We now have a “special status”. In Europe, but not ruled by it. We’re not signed up to “ever closer union”, our currency is protected forever. So is the role of the City of London as the EU’s principal financial centre, the main global centre for trading in the euro ironically enough. We’ve stopped the abuse of our benefits system by a few and protected the real benefits of immigration for our economy. In short we’ve secured the best of both worlds."
Well anyone who believes all that either can't read, has a remarkable capacity for self-delusion, or is just spinning for reasons unknown.
* making "America" (i.e. the US) great again - that wins him points in redneckland, which is most of the country;
* appearing to be a rabid nutter - that loses him points, and not just among "libruls".
But don't we all know that US culture is schizo?
Kind of fitting that the candidate opposing the first woman presidential nominee for a major party will be a guy who advertises himself as shooting testosterone grenades at the picnics of the less advantaged before biting into their livers. Schwarzenegger will love him! It may well be time for a president with a populist thuggish shoot-from-the-hip presentation.
Chatters may like to consider the possibility that billionaire former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg - the guy to whom David Cameron rushed to report post-indyref and who had himself previously rushed to London to sort shit out post-Lehmans, boasting outside Downing Street about his friendship with the equally squeaky clean Peter Mandelson - may buy himself onto the US presidential ballot paper in summer or autumn.
So Jeremy Corbyn should "wear a proper suit" and sing "God save the Queen"? Ah, don't you just love Tory scum when the mask slips?
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
Gordon Brown chewed his finger nails to the quick.
The January NBC/Wall Street Journal survey found that 65 percent of likely Republican voters could see themselves supporting Trump, a staggering jump from the 23 percent of voters who did last March, before he announced his presidential run. Cruz and Rubio fared modestly better, at 71 percent and 67 percent, respectively.
Quite how Cruz comes out at 65.0-70.0 and Rubio at 3.35-3.5 is, as Alastair and others have said, one of the great mysteries of political betting. Cruz is ahead of Rubio on national polls, ahead on most of the important state polls, had actually won a state, is marginally ahead on delegates, is ahead on proportion of GOP voters who could support him, and yet is seen as a no-hoper with Rubio seen as quite plausible.
No, I don't get it either.
Rubio's too short.
If you imagine him at 6s/7s what you see is that Trump almost has this; only a sweep of "non-Trump" supporters could change that; and only Rubio and not Cruz could ever do that.
As it is, 3.4 implies Rubio could win without a dramatic move, which is clearly not right - if Rubio could, Cruz could (when in truth, neither can).
The biggest difference between Rubio & Cruz is probably future endorsements.
So Jeremy Corbyn should "wear a proper suit" and sing "God save the Queen"? Ah, don't you just love Tory scum when the mask slips?
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
Gordon Brown chewed his finger nails to the quick.
Sometimes with a garnish of snot.
What a delightful mental picture you conjure up.
I'll spare you the link to Guido - of Gordon snacking....!
* making "America" (i.e. the US) great again - that wins him points in redneckland, which is most of the country;
* appearing to be a rabid nutter - that loses him points, and not just among "libruls".
But don't we all know that US culture is schizo?
Kind of fitting that the candidate opposing the first woman presidential nominee for a major party will be a guy who advertises himself as shooting testosterone grenades at the picnics of the less advantaged. Schwarzenegger will love him! It may well be time for a president with a populist thuggish shoot-from-the-hip presentation.
Chatters may like to consider the possibility that billionaire former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg - the guy to whom David Cameron rushed to report post-indyref and who had himself previously rushed to London to sort shit out post-Lehmans, boasting outside Downing Street about his friendship with the equally squeaky clean Peter Mandelson - may buy himself onto the US presidential ballot paper in summer or autumn.
So Jeremy Corbyn should "wear a proper suit" and sing "God save the Queen"? Ah, don't you just love Tory scum when the mask slips?
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
I saw Jez at the Commons last November, I wasn't sure if I should say hello or give him spare change.
My 5-year-old was discussing poverty with his mum yesterday. He asked why people were poor, and if it was true that lots of people in Africa were poor. Then his solution: "Why don't they just get a plastic cup?"
Three weeks today, 60% of the Republican delegates will have been won.
Not sure when it becomes arithmetically impossible to beat him, but it's already looking close to it in practice, unless something dramatic changes in the next couple of weeks.
Using Rod's tool, if you assume a fair result for Rubio up to Florida, a win in Florida, and victories in all following states, he gets the nomination. However not by much.
But why would he suddenly start winning after Florida? At the moment, he's a long way from winning even in his home state, and he'd have to have a big win there to overcome the sense that it was merely a local-boy vote if he did.
So Jeremy Corbyn should "wear a proper suit" and sing "God save the Queen"? Ah, don't you just love Tory scum when the mask slips?
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
I saw Jez at the Commons last November, I wasn't sure if I should say hello or give him spare change.
My 5-year-old was discussing poverty with his mum yesterday. He asked why people were poor, and if it was true that lots of people in Africa were poor. Then his solution: "Why don't they just get a plastic cup?"
The January NBC/Wall Street Journal survey found that 65 percent of likely Republican voters could see themselves supporting Trump, a staggering jump from the 23 percent of voters who did last March, before he announced his presidential run. Cruz and Rubio fared modestly better, at 71 percent and 67 percent, respectively.
Quite how Cruz comes out at 65.0-70.0 and Rubio at 3.35-3.5 is, as Alastair and others have said, one of the great mysteries of political betting. Cruz is ahead of Rubio on national polls, ahead on most of the important state polls, had actually won a state, is marginally ahead on delegates, is ahead on proportion of GOP voters who could support him, and yet is seen as a no-hoper with Rubio seen as quite plausible.
No, I don't get it either.
I guess the theory is that if Rubio were to drop out then a smaller share of his vote would transfer to Cruz, compared with the other way round. In other words, in a head-to-head fight against Trump, Rubio would do better.
Which is all very well but we don't have a head-to-head fight and nor are we likely to get one before next Tuesday, after which a third of pledged delegates will have already been won.
So Jeremy Corbyn should "wear a proper suit" and sing "God save the Queen"? Ah, don't you just love Tory scum when the mask slips?
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
Gordon Brown chewed his finger nails to the quick.
Sometimes with a garnish of snot.
Perhaps he was marking the association of other leading figures in the Labour Party with Enrico Berlusconi, who set the pace for stylish bogey-eating on camera, as can be seen in the following short video clip:
Somewhere deep inside that enormous document there is referendum polling which has a lead for leave of 51:49 I think (unweighted) and 53:47 (weighted) - see page 80.
The January NBC/Wall Street Journal survey found that 65 percent of likely Republican voters could see themselves supporting Trump, a staggering jump from the 23 percent of voters who did last March, before he announced his presidential run. Cruz and Rubio fared modestly better, at 71 percent and 67 percent, respectively.
Quite how Cruz comes out at 65.0-70.0 and Rubio at 3.35-3.5 is, as Alastair and others have said, one of the great mysteries of political betting. Cruz is ahead of Rubio on national polls, ahead on most of the important state polls, had actually won a state, is marginally ahead on delegates, is ahead on proportion of GOP voters who could support him, and yet is seen as a no-hoper with Rubio seen as quite plausible.
No, I don't get it either.
I guess the theory is that if Rubio were to drop out then a smaller share of his vote would transfer to Cruz, compared with the other way round. In other words, in a head-to-head fight against Trump, Rubio would do better.
Which is all very well but we don't have a head-to-head fight and nor are we likely to get one before next Tuesday, after which a third of pledged delegates will have already been won.
So Jeremy Corbyn should "wear a proper suit" and sing "God save the Queen"? Ah, don't you just love Tory scum when the mask slips?
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
Gordon Brown chewed his finger nails to the quick.
Sometimes with a garnish of snot.
What a delightful mental picture you conjure up.
I'll spare you the link to Guido - of Gordon snacking....!
A totally reliable journal of record as far as Labour politicans are concerned!
So Jeremy Corbyn should "wear a proper suit" and sing "God save the Queen"? Ah, don't you just love Tory scum when the mask slips?
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
I saw Jez at the Commons last November, I wasn't sure if I should say hello or give him spare change.
My 5-year-old was discussing poverty with his mum yesterday. He asked why people were poor, and if it was true that lots of people in Africa were poor. Then his solution: "Why don't they just get a plastic cup?"
When my daughter was about 3, she asked me: "Why does Daddy have to go to work every day?". "To earn money to pay for things" "Why doesn't he just get money out of the machine, like you do?"
Three weeks today, 60% of the Republican delegates will have been won.
Not sure when it becomes arithmetically impossible to beat him, but it's already looking close to it in practice, unless something dramatic changes in the next couple of weeks.
Using Rod's tool, if you assume a fair result for Rubio up to Florida, a win in Florida, and victories in all following states, he gets the nomination. However not by much.
But why would he suddenly start winning after Florida? At the moment, he's a long way from winning even in his home state, and he'd have to have a big win there to overcome the sense that it was merely a local-boy vote if he did.
He'd hope it was a two horse race, with Trump capping out at 45%.
I'm not saying it's likely, I'm just saying that what it would take for Rubio to win.
The January NBC/Wall Street Journal survey found that 65 percent of likely Republican voters could see themselves supporting Trump, a staggering jump from the 23 percent of voters who did last March, before he announced his presidential run. Cruz and Rubio fared modestly better, at 71 percent and 67 percent, respectively.
Quite how Cruz comes out at 65.0-70.0 and Rubio at 3.35-3.5 is, as Alastair and others have said, one of the great mysteries of political betting. Cruz is ahead of Rubio on national polls, ahead on most of the important state polls, had actually won a state, is marginally ahead on delegates, is ahead on proportion of GOP voters who could support him, and yet is seen as a no-hoper with Rubio seen as quite plausible.
No, I don't get it either.
I guess the theory is that if Rubio were to drop out then a smaller share of his vote would transfer to Cruz, compared with the other way round. In other words, in a head-to-head fight against Trump, Rubio would do better.
Which is all very well but we don't have a head-to-head fight and nor are we likely to get one before next Tuesday, after which a third of pledged delegates will have already been won.
I think it's unclear as to whether the establishment would ever coalesce around Cruz in any case. He'd lose the general and do the party image no favours along the way.
So Jeremy Corbyn should "wear a proper suit" and sing "God save the Queen"? Ah, don't you just love Tory scum when the mask slips?
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
I saw Jez at the Commons last November, I wasn't sure if I should say hello or give him spare change.
My 5-year-old was discussing poverty with his mum yesterday. He asked why people were poor, and if it was true that lots of people in Africa were poor. Then his solution: "Why don't they just get a plastic cup?"
When my daughter was about 3, she asked me: "Why does Daddy have to go to work every day?". "To earn money to pay for things" "Why doesn't he just get money out of the machine, like you do?"
The embarrassing thing is if Cameron's mother saw the people on here who are bigging up her sons comments, she'd probably advise them to upgrade to Corbyns look
Labour MPs, several of whom have told me of similar remarks from their constituents, looked even more grim-faced than usual.
Three weeks today, 60% of the Republican delegates will have been won.
Not sure when it becomes arithmetically impossible to beat him, but it's already looking close to it in practice, unless something dramatic changes in the next couple of weeks.
Using Rod's tool, if you assume a fair result for Rubio up to Florida, a win in Florida, and victories in all following states, he gets the nomination. However not by much.
But why would he suddenly start winning after Florida? At the moment, he's a long way from winning even in his home state, and he'd have to have a big win there to overcome the sense that it was merely a local-boy vote if he did.
He'd hope it was a two horse race, with Trump capping out at 45%.
I'm not saying it's likely, I'm just saying that what it would take for Rubio to win.
45% is plenty in a 2 horse race with wooden donkey Ben Carson picking up a frankly perplexing 8% of the vote everywhere.
The embarrassing thing is if Cameron's mother saw the people on here who are bigging up her sons comments, she'd probably advise them to upgrade to Corbyns look
Labour MPs, several of whom have told me of similar remarks from their constituents, looked even more grim-faced than usual.
What's that got to do with scruffy beggars on here?
Somewhere deep inside that enormous document there is referendum polling which has a lead for leave of 51:49 I think (unweighted) and 53:47 (weighted) - see page 80.
It looks to me like Leave 51% Remain 49% unweighted, and Remain 51% Leave 49% weighted.
So Jeremy Corbyn should "wear a proper suit" and sing "God save the Queen"? Ah, don't you just love Tory scum when the mask slips?
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
I saw Jez at the Commons last November, I wasn't sure if I should say hello or give him spare change.
My 5-year-old was discussing poverty with his mum yesterday. He asked why people were poor, and if it was true that lots of people in Africa were poor. Then his solution: "Why don't they just get a plastic cup?"
Sorry, isam, but I'm going to blow my own trumpet a bit. Last June I sought to predict how the boundary review might work out and I came up with the following in England:
Eastern 56 East Midlands 43 London 70 North East 25 North West 68 South East 83 (including two Isle of Wight constituencies) South West 53 West Midlands 54 Yorkshire & The Humber 50
The #Heathrow13 – climate activists convicted of trespassing on and disrupting Britain’s busiest airport – have been told by the judge that they face jail sentences.
According to a small group of green protesters who have gathered outside the magistrates court this represents a terrible travesty of justice. Apparently this will be the first time in the UK anyone has ever been jailed for protesting about climate change.
“A disgrace” says (terrorist-supporting, hard-left) Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell. “Deeply unjust” says Green MP Caroline Lucas.
No, Caroline, love, what’s really unjust is this: thousands of holidaymakers and business travellers making their way to the airport to catch planes only to miss their flights because a bunch of spoiled trustafarians, unemployable Environmental Sciences graduates and professional wasters have gone and cut through the perimeter fence and lain down on the runway.
One of the idiots – it goes almost without saying – was dressed as a polar bear.
Another of the idiots – again, it almost goes without saying – holds a PhD in climate science from the University of East Anglia (aka the University of Easy Access). And guess who her course supervisor was (h/t Paul Matthews at Bishop Hill). Why – the story gets better and better – it was none other than Phil Jones, the disgraced head of the Climatic Research Unit, as featured so unimpressively in the Climategate emails.
So Jeremy Corbyn should "wear a proper suit" and sing "God save the Queen"? Ah, don't you just love Tory scum when the mask slips?
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
I saw Jez at the Commons last November, I wasn't sure if I should say hello or give him spare change.
My 5-year-old was discussing poverty with his mum yesterday. He asked why people were poor, and if it was true that lots of people in Africa were poor. Then his solution: "Why don't they just get a plastic cup?"
The #Heathrow13 – climate activists convicted of trespassing on and disrupting Britain’s busiest airport – have been told by the judge that they face jail sentences.
According to a small group of green protesters who have gathered outside the magistrates court this represents a terrible travesty of justice. Apparently this will be the first time in the UK anyone has ever been jailed for protesting about climate change.
“A disgrace” says (terrorist-supporting, hard-left) Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell. “Deeply unjust” says Green MP Caroline Lucas.
No, Caroline, love, what’s really unjust is this: thousands of holidaymakers and business travellers making their way to the airport to catch planes only to miss their flights because a bunch of spoiled trustafarians, unemployable Environmental Sciences graduates and professional wasters have gone and cut through the perimeter fence and lain down on the runway.
One of the idiots – it goes almost without saying – was dressed as a polar bear.
Another of the idiots – again, it almost goes without saying – holds a PhD in climate science from the University of East Anglia (aka the University of Easy Access). And guess who her course supervisor was (h/t Paul Matthews at Bishop Hill). Why – the story gets better and better – it was none other than Phil Jones, the disgraced head of the Climatic Research Unit, as featured so unimpressively in the Climategate emails.
Isn't a leading figure Maomontum to do with these idiots?
Betfair last price matched for Rubio for Republican nomination: 6.4
That's mental - they could lay at 7.8 for the Presidency
EDIT: Another case for "leave over-optimistic orders on Betfair, because you never know". If you'd been matched at 6.4 you could already lay back £278 @ 4.0 or shorter.
Virtually every constituency will be withdrawn, whether they have too few, too many or the right number of voters, as even where they're right of themselves, their neighbours will in all probability intrude.
@rosschawkins: Donald Tusk: EU agreement "cannot be annulled by the European Court of Justice"
Tell that to the Danes.
In 1992 EU leaders pledged that EU citizenship would “not in any way take the place of national citizenship”. Less than a decade later, the ECJ declared that EU citizenship would “be the fundamental status of nationals of the Member States”. Tusk doesn't know what he is talk about.
Sorry, isam, but I'm going to blow my own trumpet a bit. Last June I sought to predict how the boundary review might work out and I came up with the following in England:
Eastern 56 East Midlands 43 London 70 North East 25 North West 68 South East 83 (including two Isle of Wight constituencies) South West 53 West Midlands 54 Yorkshire & The Humber 50
Virtually every constituency will be withdrawn, whether they have too few, too many or the right number of voters, as even where they're right of themselves, their neighbours will in all probability intrude.
McSally is impressive https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fn_darqWMZY She's just been appointed Chairwoman of the Border and Maritime Security Subcommittee on the Committee on Homeland Security. The influential assignment gives Rep. McSally the lead role on the subcommittee with primary jurisdiction over border security.
She 's the perfect fit for Trump's Veep. An attractive, articulate woman who's done more with her life than scheme for office. [Hint] And means business, like Trump, against the threats to America.
@rosschawkins: Donald Tusk: EU agreement "cannot be annulled by the European Court of Justice"
Tell that to the Danes.
In 1992 EU leaders pledged that EU citizenship would “not in any way take the place of national citizenship”. Less than a decade later, the ECJ declared that EU citizenship would “be the fundamental status of nationals of the Member States”. Tusk doesn't know what he is talk about.
Joshua Rozenberg's take - maybe it is binding, maybe it isn't. There are arguments on both sides.
Well anyone who believes all that either can't read, has a remarkable capacity for self-delusion, or is just spinning for reasons unknown.
Or wasn't at the Treasure Select Committee hearing.
Sir Konrad Schiemann, a former English Court of Appeal and European Court of Justice judge contradicts claims by the Government that the renegotiation will have legal force straight after the referendum. He says that it will be a ‘political understanding’ but that changes to the treaties – which are necessary to give the deal legal force – can ‘only be achieved by following the lengthy processes in each Member State for ratifying Treaties’.
In his evidence he wrote :
“the phrase 'ever closer union' does not found any legal obligation” and that he does not in the “many cases in which the legality of the EU and national legislation and decisions has been an issue... recollect a challenge based on an assertion that the measure in question was a breach of a legal obligation to achieve ever closer union." He goes on to say “the phrase compels nothing, although it continues to inspire some”.
Comments
East - 57 (-1)
E Mids- 44 (-2)
London - 68 (-5)
NE - 25 (-4)
NW - 68 (-7)
SE - 81 + 1 IOW (-1)
SW - 53 (-2)
W Mids - 53 (-6)
Yorks 50 (-4)
http://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/BCEreviewlaunchpressrelease.pdf
Hillary ought to be favourite based on current polling and ratings but not by much. The scope for events to intervene between now and November is huge. Trump is a more charismatic character and has far more presence on the stage. On the other hand, his manner clearly turns a lot of voters off as, I suspect, his being a loose cannon does. Then again, we don't know where Hillary's e-mails will take her.
As a finger-in-the-air, I'd say 11/8 Trump vs 8/11 Hillary.
This is what Remainians actually believe:
"No other prime minister, not even Margaret Thatcher, has succeeded in rolling back the tide on European integration. We now have a “special status”. In Europe, but not ruled by it. We’re not signed up to “ever closer union”, our currency is protected forever. So is the role of the City of London as the EU’s principal financial centre, the main global centre for trading in the euro ironically enough. We’ve stopped the abuse of our benefits system by a few and protected the real benefits of immigration for our economy. In short we’ve secured the best of both worlds."
http://realbusiness.co.uk/article/33087-why-i-joined-200-businesses-to-argue-were-safer-stronger-and-better-off-in-a-reformed-eu
Of course you can, you can have a bullying manner whoever you are talking to and I find it a very unpleasant characteristic of our PM which we seem to be seeing more frequently. If you are saying that Corbyn should not be able to be intimidated than I agree, and I doubt he was even though I can't stand the man.
Will he show up ?
Nate Silver Verified account
@NateSilver538
Not just Nevada. The reporting that there's little appetite in GOP donor circles for an ad war against him might be the bigger deal.
When the Guardian revealed that the veteran presenter would front the EU referendum results night on 23 June, doubts were cast on the future role for Edwards.
However, a spokesman for the BBC moved to quash such doubts: “Huw Edwards will anchor all the BBC’s main election programming up to and including the general election of 2020.”
Although Edwards will lead the coverage of local elections on 5 May, the Guardian understands that Andrew Neil, the Daily Politics host, is being lined up to host the BBC’s US election coverage on 8 November.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/feb/24/huw-edwards-general-election-david-dimbleby
Drop in electorate:
Con seats: -1.14%
Lab seats: -1.32%
Have you seen the length of David Cameron's fingernails, clearly visible in that footage?
Will his mother be sending him some nail scissors? What a slovenly sod! Oh no, wait a minute, when you're posh and don't cut your nails you're a "character", right?
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/702501097307545600
?
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-02-23/four-problems-with-the-winnowing-theory-of-trump-s-downfall
Quite how Cruz comes out at 65.0-70.0 and Rubio at 3.35-3.5 is, as Alastair and others have said, one of the great mysteries of political betting. Cruz is ahead of Rubio on national polls, ahead on most of the important state polls, had actually won a state, is marginally ahead on delegates, is ahead on proportion of GOP voters who could support him, and yet is seen as a no-hoper with Rubio seen as quite plausible.
No, I don't get it either.
If Trump won Florida & Ohio on Mar 15 - the first two big WTA states - then it would be all over. Right now, he looks value at 1/2 but I wouldn't be as short as some on here. The result on Super Tuesday, and the post-ST wrangling, will be absolutely key in determining whether Rubio can realistically fight on.
Well anyone who believes all that either can't read, has a remarkable capacity for self-delusion, or is just spinning for reasons unknown.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/emerson-college-polling-society-23850
If you imagine him at 6s/7s what you see is that Trump almost has this; only a sweep of "non-Trump" supporters could change that; and only Rubio and not Cruz could ever do that.
As it is, 3.4 implies Rubio could win without a dramatic move, which is clearly not right - if Rubio could, Cruz could (when in truth, neither can).
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/10/31/1414790621562_Image_galleryImage_MANCHESTER_ENGLAND_OCTOBE.JPG
Sometimes with a garnish of snot.
Summary on Trump:
* making "America" (i.e. the US) great again - that wins him points in redneckland, which is most of the country;
* appearing to be a rabid nutter - that loses him points, and not just among "libruls".
But don't we all know that US culture is schizo?
Kind of fitting that the candidate opposing the first woman presidential nominee for a major party will be a guy who advertises himself as shooting testosterone grenades at the picnics of the less advantaged before biting into their livers. Schwarzenegger will love him! It may well be time for a president with a populist thuggish shoot-from-the-hip presentation.
Chatters may like to consider the possibility that billionaire former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg - the guy to whom David Cameron rushed to report post-indyref and who had himself previously rushed to London to sort shit out post-Lehmans, boasting outside Downing Street about his friendship with the equally squeaky clean Peter Mandelson - may buy himself onto the US presidential ballot paper in summer or autumn.
And I am sure John Major thought the same about the ECJ when he signed the Mastricht Treaty with its opt outs.
If someone gives it, though, it's OK to make them take it, surely? Or does your morality say otherwise?
Cruz to the moon on BF.
190 for POTUS
#Brexit
Which is all very well but we don't have a head-to-head fight and nor are we likely to get one before next Tuesday, after which a third of pledged delegates will have already been won.
"Rotherham abuse trial: Six guilty of sex offences"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35651366
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2mHPjUuksE
Ah, Berlusconi - now there was a stylish politician, always in a "proper suit".
White Muslim convert Lorna Moore and Ayman Shaukat, both from Walsall, found guilty of Syria-related terror offences
Walsall terror trial heard how British women were queuing up to have 'babies for ISIS'
Religion of Peace
BMG get their panel from market research/shop sales etc, I believe.
For me, having such an empty headed booby as president would in its own way be more dangerous than Trump.
"To earn money to pay for things"
"Why doesn't he just get money out of the machine, like you do?"
I'm not saying it's likely, I'm just saying that what it would take for Rubio to win.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-H4eqc43aDRvF9V_VOjTQRh-rPmNifYJom-yaJ79Rpg/edit#gid=691776438
BMG Westminster Voting Intention Results for February 2016 https://t.co/z5O6lMdE8w
While Easyjet claim the opposite
Which of these fine and upstanding organisations to believe, eh? Tricky choice.
"Oh, EUROPHILIA. We thought you said necrophilia....."
IIRC, last month it was 42/44%.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/the-boundaries-of-reason-possible-shape.html
Eastern 56
East Midlands 43
London 70
North East 25
North West 68
South East 83 (including two Isle of Wight constituencies)
South West 53
West Midlands 54
Yorkshire & The Humber 50
Here's an estimate on official figures today:
https://twitter.com/howarddawber/status/702509838216077312
I estimated one too few in Eastern and East Midlands, two too many in London, one too many in West Midlands.
I'll take that.
Betfair last price matched for Rubio for Republican nomination: 6.4
EDIT: Another case for "leave over-optimistic orders on Betfair, because you never know". If you'd been matched at 6.4 you could already lay back £278 @ 4.0 or shorter.
In 1992 EU leaders pledged that EU citizenship would “not in any way take the place of national citizenship”. Less than a decade later, the ECJ declared that EU citizenship would “be the fundamental status of nationals of the Member States”. Tusk doesn't know what he is talk about.
We have seen today how sometimes what one thinks is a boast is really something to keep quiet about. Far smoother to let others blow your trumpet
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fn_darqWMZY
She's just been appointed Chairwoman of the Border and Maritime Security Subcommittee on the Committee on Homeland Security. The influential assignment gives Rep. McSally the lead role on the subcommittee with primary jurisdiction over border security.
She 's the perfect fit for Trump's Veep. An attractive, articulate woman who's done more with her life than scheme for office. [Hint]
And means business, like Trump, against the threats to America.
He is playing along
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check/2016/feb/24/david-cameron-eu-deal-legally-binding-michael-gove-analysis-joshua-rozenberg
Sir Konrad Schiemann, a former English Court of Appeal and European Court of Justice judge contradicts claims by the Government that the renegotiation will have legal force straight after the referendum. He says that it will be a ‘political understanding’ but that changes to the treaties – which are necessary to give the deal legal force – can ‘only be achieved by following the lengthy processes in each Member State for ratifying Treaties’.
In his evidence he wrote :