politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: With both phone and online EURef polls th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: With both phone and online EURef polls the trend has been away from REMAIN
Whatever is driving this, and there have been many theories, the trend with each mode in the PB EURef polling averages has been the same – away from REMAIN.
Comments
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Let's hope the trend continues
Edit: And my first First for ages.0 -
Calling Leavers shy causes epistemological problems, so it can't be shy kippers in the phone calls can it ?0
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If the phone polls are right, it's hard to see Leave gaining enough ground to win.0
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My overall faith in polling is pretty weak. The trend has been moving to Leave, let's see how that shifts post Cameron deal.0
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From previous thread
So those who have had to deal with the EU have become more pro-EU. One person who hasn't had any dealings with them is more anti-EU. Doesn't seem much of a storyCasino_Royale said:
Oh Lord.Plato_Says said:Tom Newton Dunn
Significant admission by PM at O2 Q&A: holding office has made him more pro-EU. Same with Hague, Hammond, Osborne. But Gove, the opposite.0 -
I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.0
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Steve Hawkes
New civil service code for EU Referendum vote. Out Ministers cannot be provided with "briefing or speech material" on this matter0 -
FPT: The Elizabeth Line hardly trips off the tongue. It has the same number of syllables as Victoria Line but seems harder to say, for some reason. I wonder what people will actually call it.
The Liz Line0 -
FPT:
Yes. Two words of caution though. NH was an open primary where the GOP race was tighter and more interesting than the Dem one. It's possible and I think likely that independents will have tended towards the Republican primary to maximise their impact (which may also help explain the scale of Sanders' win).Pulpstar said:Keep an eye on Dem vs GOP turnout. Trump being ahead of Hilary in raw votes in New Hampshire could be a straw in the wind. Dem turnout in SC will be interesting.
Re SC, it is a Red state so there should be a higher turnout for the GOP by about 20%, all else being equal.0 -
But In can have civil servants rallying business to produce letters in support?Plato_Says said:Steve Hawkes
New civil service code for EU Referendum vote. Out Ministers cannot be provided with "briefing or speech material" on this matter
I genuinely want to hear a fair debate from both sides...not going to happen is it.0 -
Maybe this is the single issue which highlights the self-selecting nature of internet samples better than any other. If so it might provide a clue on how to improve polling accuracy on other questions.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
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“the trend has been away from REMAIN”
Good news, lets hope the trend continues - I just wish I had more faith in polling period…
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Labour's latest fightback startegy on DP show. Rupa Huq Lab MP arguing for more immigrant workers to be let in due to a need for curry chefs. Complains that because training not working this justifies importing more.0
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Presumably women will leave their kitchen to vote for Kasich, but not to answer a pollster's questions.NickPalmer said:Trump ahead even in Kasich's home state:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/0 -
Stunned. Cameron and Osborne clearly want to split the party.Plato_Says said:Steve Hawkes
New civil service code for EU Referendum vote. Out Ministers cannot be provided with "briefing or speech material" on this matter
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I love that. Implies that they are still at square one.TCPoliticalBetting said:Labour's latest fightback startegy on DP show.
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That's entirely in keeping with the idea that the civil servants work for the government, which is recommending Remain.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Stunned. Cameron and Osborne clearly want to split the party.Plato_Says said:Steve Hawkes
New civil service code for EU Referendum vote. Out Ministers cannot be provided with "briefing or speech material" on this matter0 -
Does this mean that the Civil Service won't provide them with briefing material to argue the Out case (which seems reasonable, given that Remain is the recommendation of HMG), or won't provide them with access to any briefing material in relation to the matter in order to prevent them seeing the case being made for Remain (less reasonable)?TCPoliticalBetting said:
Stunned. Cameron and Osborne clearly want to split the party.Plato_Says said:Steve Hawkes
New civil service code for EU Referendum vote. Out Ministers cannot be provided with "briefing or speech material" on this matter0 -
Mine to. The idea that Labour voters are going to vote massively for Remain when 46% have strong concerns about immigration just does not ring true. I do wonder what the effect of 4 months of Labour politicians mainly advocating pro-EC messages at Labour voters is going to result in. May be just voter strikes but could also push Labour voters to UKIP and theConservatives.Plato_Says said:My overall faith in polling is pretty weak. The trend has been moving to Leave, let's see how that shifts post Cameron deal.
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My own theory is phone polls have a lower UKIP VI, the lower the UKIP VI, the lower the share for Leave.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
But that doesn't explain it all.0 -
Maybe. Except that phone polls are notionally more Tory because they reach older people not on the internet and they should supply a larger sample of leavers, you'd think?williamglenn said:
Maybe this is the single issue which highlights the self-selecting nature of internet samples better than any other. If so it might provide a clue on how to improve polling accuracy on other questions.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
I mean online polls overstated Labour to a greater degree than phone polls. Are they now, also, overstating Leave?0 -
It's also stupid politics: it gives Leave an easy get out from discussing detail.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Stunned. Cameron and Osborne clearly want to split the party.Plato_Says said:Steve Hawkes
New civil service code for EU Referendum vote. Out Ministers cannot be provided with "briefing or speech material" on this matter
"I'd love to give you a detailed response on this, but the Government has blocked our access to the data. Anyone would think they are scared of what we might discover...."0 -
Rupa now complaining that overseas students should be allowed to work in curry houses....TCPoliticalBetting said:Labour's latest fightback strategy on DP show. Rupa Huq Lab MP arguing for more immigrant workers to be let in due to a need for curry chefs. Complains that because training not working this justifies importing more.
I had read that young british people with pakistan or bangladesh roots had higher than average levels of unemployment?
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ALEURP and everything will be fine.TheScreamingEagles said:
My own theory is phone polls have a lower UKIP VI, the lower the UKIP VI, the lower the share for Leave.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
But that doesn't explain it all.0 -
The trend is your friend. All the polls are showing the direction of travel is towards Leave. With four months to go that would worry me hugely if I were Cameron and Osborne.Wanderer said:
Maybe. Except that phone polls are notionally more Tory because they reach older people not on the internet and they should supply a larger sample of leavers, you'd think?williamglenn said:
Maybe this is the single issue which highlights the self-selecting nature of internet samples better than any other. If so it might provide a clue on how to improve polling accuracy on other questions.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
I mean online polls overstated Labour to a greater degree than phone polls. Are they now, also, overstating Leave?
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One thing that is pretty consistent is that online surveys tend to produce higher combined shares for Conservatives and UKIP than telephone surveys. But, they also show Conservative voters more supportive of Leave than telephone surveys do.williamglenn said:
Maybe this is the single issue which highlights the self-selecting nature of internet samples better than any other. If so it might provide a clue on how to improve polling accuracy on other questions.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
Telephone pollsters have a combined centre right/right vote of c.50%, online at c.55%.
So which is the correct figure? Nobody knows. I wouldn't be at all surprised though if Conservatives and UKIP made up about 60% of those who actually go out and vote on June 23rd. I think there's an enthusiasm gap between right and left on this issue.
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There's dealing with them in terms of international diplomacy (PM, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary) that may well lead to becoming more favourable as a fellow member of a club.eek said:From previous thread
So those who have had to deal with the EU have become more pro-EU. One person who hasn't had any dealings with them is more anti-EU. Doesn't seem much of a storyCasino_Royale said:
Oh Lord.Plato_Says said:Tom Newton Dunn
Significant admission by PM at O2 Q&A: holding office has made him more pro-EU. Same with Hague, Hammond, Osborne. But Gove, the opposite.
Then again you have an ex-Chancellor and would in all probability have an ex-PM, if she were alive today, saying the opposite.
You also having serving ministers who are familiar with the impact of EU law in social, welfare, employment, justice and education policy who are all convinced of the case to Leave.0 -
But there are multiple subsamples. It's not as simple as old = more Tory = more likely to vote Leave. Perhaps the under-sampled group are the non-political Tory leaning pensioners who aren't angry at the world and whose views chime with the likes of Ken Clarke.Wanderer said:
Maybe. Except that phone polls are notionally more Tory because they reach older people not on the internet and they should supply a larger sample of leavers, you'd think?williamglenn said:
Maybe this is the single issue which highlights the self-selecting nature of internet samples better than any other. If so it might provide a clue on how to improve polling accuracy on other questions.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
I mean online polls overstated Labour to a greater degree than phone polls. Are they now, also, overstating Leave?0 -
Older people do not like answering the phone as much as other groups these days (sales calls). Before the GE this group was harder to contact and the more conservative leaning ones in particular. So unless the phone polls have fully fixed this they are just not including enough 65+ conservative voters in their samples. These are strongly against europe yet some phone polling is showing the opposite.... Have they said that it has been fixed?TheScreamingEagles said:
My own theory is phone polls have a lower UKIP VI, the lower the UKIP VI, the lower the share for Leave.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
But that doesn't explain it all.
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I'm surprised and pleased to see that Bedford's MP, Richard Fuller has declared for Leave.
That means Bedfordshire has four Leave (Fuller, Selous, Dorries, Hopkins) to two Remain (Shuker, and Burt).0 -
What, just Out Ministers?MarqueeMark said:
It's also stupid politics: it gives Leave an easy get out from discussing detail.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Stunned. Cameron and Osborne clearly want to split the party.Plato_Says said:Steve Hawkes
New civil service code for EU Referendum vote. Out Ministers cannot be provided with "briefing or speech material" on this matter
"I'd love to give you a detailed response on this, but the Government has blocked our access to the data. Anyone would think they are scared of what we might discover...."0 -
I agreeSouthamObserver said:
The trend is your friend. All the polls are showing the direction of travel is towards Leave. With four months to go that would worry me hugely if I were Cameron and Osborne.Wanderer said:
Maybe. Except that phone polls are notionally more Tory because they reach older people not on the internet and they should supply a larger sample of leavers, you'd think?williamglenn said:
Maybe this is the single issue which highlights the self-selecting nature of internet samples better than any other. If so it might provide a clue on how to improve polling accuracy on other questions.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
I mean online polls overstated Labour to a greater degree than phone polls. Are they now, also, overstating Leave?0 -
As I have said before I think that phone polling has a fundemental problem that is increasing year by year. More and more people have caller ID on their phones. It is standard on all mobile phones and most modern phone systems for land lines have the facility even if not everyone uses it.TheScreamingEagles said:
My own theory is phone polls have a lower UKIP VI, the lower the UKIP VI, the lower the share for Leave.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
But that doesn't explain it all.
As such people these days have the ability to decide whether or not to answer the phone based on what the number is. I, and most people I know will not answer any 08- numbers or caller withheld/not available numbers. Increasingly a lot of people may not even answer a number they don't recognise.
It is easy to see how being unable to reach these people could seriously skew the rules of phone polling.
This is not to say that internet polling doesn't have its own problems but I am just highlighting one particular fault with phone polling which I think is potentially very serious.0 -
Your desire to make all the polls say the same thing is interesting, not least because in May they did!Alistair said:
ALEURP and everything will be fine.TheScreamingEagles said:
My own theory is phone polls have a lower UKIP VI, the lower the UKIP VI, the lower the share for Leave.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
But that doesn't explain it all.0 -
Regarding the downward trend. It may also be due to the amount of talk on the subject and drawing to the attention of the voters. 1) How much we pay to the EC, 2) Reminding people the effect the EC has on them, 3) The linking of immigration to the EC. If so the more debate on the matter the worse it gets for Remain. Providing there is a fair picture in the broadcast media.0
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Beware the sky "Remain" vote - it's obvious that the "Leave" bandwagon will be more vocal - we've seen all of this before viz. Scottish Referendum and GE15.
Still calling it for Remain by 15 percentage points.0 -
That's entirely in keeping with the idea that the civil servants work for the government
On this issue I think it's almost the reverse0 -
Kezia aim for the election "Tories will not come second".0
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In which you are aligned with Atul Hatwal.murali_s said:Beware the sky "Remain" vote - it's obvious that the "Leave" bandwagon will be more vocal - we've seen all of this before viz. Scottish Referendum and GE15.
Still calling it for Remain by 15 percentage points.
Immigration is the issue that many Brexiteers think will tip the balance their way. But just as Ukip found last year, they’re misreading the polls.
There is a very familiar gap between the number who view immigration as the most important issue facing the country and those who view it as important to their household’s well-being.
At the general election, 51% thought immigration was the key issue facing Britain but only 21% believed it mattered most to their lives.
Unsurprisingly, immigration was not a major factor in the contest.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/02/23/remain-will-win-easily-boris-will-be-irrelevant-and-immigration-will-barely-register-in-voters-choice/#more-206200 -
True about caller ID but it's not obvious why it would favour Remain (or disfavour Leave).Richard_Tyndall said:
As I have said before I think that phone polling has a fundemental problem that is increasing year by year. More and more people have caller ID on their phones. It is standard on all mobile phones and most modern phone systems for land lines have the facility even if not everyone uses it.TheScreamingEagles said:
My own theory is phone polls have a lower UKIP VI, the lower the UKIP VI, the lower the share for Leave.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
But that doesn't explain it all.
As such people these days have the ability to decide whether or not to answer the phone based on what the number is. I, and most people I know will not answer any 08- numbers or caller withheld/not available numbers. Increasingly a lot of people may not even answer a number they don't recognise.
It is easy to see how being unable to reach these people could seriously skew the rules of phone polling.
This is not to say that internet polling doesn't have its own problems but I am just highlighting one particular fault with phone polling which I think is potentially very serious.0 -
I think that's right, and we'll know Cameron is truly rattled when voting in the referendum is made compulsory.Sean_F said:
One thing that is pretty consistent is that online surveys tend to produce higher combined shares for Conservatives and UKIP than telephone surveys. But, they also show Conservative voters more supportive of Leave than telephone surveys do.williamglenn said:
Maybe this is the single issue which highlights the self-selecting nature of internet samples better than any other. If so it might provide a clue on how to improve polling accuracy on other questions.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
Telephone pollsters have a combined centre right/right vote of c.50%, online at c.55%.
So which is the correct figure? Nobody knows. I wouldn't be at all surprised though if Conservatives and UKIP made up about 60% of those who actually go out and vote on June 23rd. I think there's an enthusiasm gap between right and left on this issue.0 -
@AlanRoden: .@kdugdalemsp on @daily_politics repeats the sensational claim that "@RuthDavidsonMSP is a Tory".0
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Why?TCPoliticalBetting said:
Stunned. Cameron and Osborne clearly want to split the party.Plato_Says said:Steve Hawkes
New civil service code for EU Referendum vote. Out Ministers cannot be provided with "briefing or speech material" on this matter
As Cameron explained yesterday in the HoC, the government has an agreed policy - 'Remain'.....0 -
That enthusiasm gap does not necessarily favour Leave (it may do). There may be plenty of people who turn out to show their loyalty to David Cameron.rcs1000 said:
I think that's right, and we'll know Cameron is truly rattled when voting in the referendum is made compulsory.Sean_F said:
One thing that is pretty consistent is that online surveys tend to produce higher combined shares for Conservatives and UKIP than telephone surveys. But, they also show Conservative voters more supportive of Leave than telephone surveys do.williamglenn said:
Maybe this is the single issue which highlights the self-selecting nature of internet samples better than any other. If so it might provide a clue on how to improve polling accuracy on other questions.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
Telephone pollsters have a combined centre right/right vote of c.50%, online at c.55%.
So which is the correct figure? Nobody knows. I wouldn't be at all surprised though if Conservatives and UKIP made up about 60% of those who actually go out and vote on June 23rd. I think there's an enthusiasm gap between right and left on this issue.0 -
Polling is not reaching those who want life to be on their own terms. We might call them the "Bugger Off! Tendency" How do we think they will vote on the EU?TCPoliticalBetting said:
Older people do not like answering the phone as much as other groups these days (sales calls). Before the GE this group was harder to contact and the more conservative leaning ones in particular. So unless the phone polls have fully fixed this they are just not including enough 65+ conservative voters in their samples. These are strongly against europe yet some phone polling is showing the opposite.... Have they said that it has been fixed?TheScreamingEagles said:
My own theory is phone polls have a lower UKIP VI, the lower the UKIP VI, the lower the share for Leave.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
But that doesn't explain it all.0 -
A very complacent article. Neither telephone nor online polls have proved obviously more reliable than the other.Tissue_Price said:
In which you are aligned with Atul Hatwal.murali_s said:Beware the sky "Remain" vote - it's obvious that the "Leave" bandwagon will be more vocal - we've seen all of this before viz. Scottish Referendum and GE15.
Still calling it for Remain by 15 percentage points.
Immigration is the issue that many Brexiteers think will tip the balance their way. But just as Ukip found last year, they’re misreading the polls.
There is a very familiar gap between the number who view immigration as the most important issue facing the country and those who view it as important to their household’s well-being.
At the general election, 51% thought immigration was the key issue facing Britain but only 21% believed it mattered most to their lives.
Unsurprisingly, immigration was not a major factor in the contest.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/02/23/remain-will-win-easily-boris-will-be-irrelevant-and-immigration-will-barely-register-in-voters-choice/#more-206200 -
People more savvy and more experienced choose who they talk to?Wanderer said:
True about caller ID but it's not obvious why it would favour Remain (or disfavour Leave).Richard_Tyndall said:
As I have said before I think that phone polling has a fundemental problem that is increasing year by year. More and more people have caller ID on their phones. It is standard on all mobile phones and most modern phone systems for land lines have the facility even if not everyone uses it.TheScreamingEagles said:
My own theory is phone polls have a lower UKIP VI, the lower the UKIP VI, the lower the share for Leave.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
But that doesn't explain it all.
As such people these days have the ability to decide whether or not to answer the phone based on what the number is. I, and most people I know will not answer any 08- numbers or caller withheld/not available numbers. Increasingly a lot of people may not even answer a number they don't recognise.
It is easy to see how being unable to reach these people could seriously skew the rules of phone polling.
This is not to say that internet polling doesn't have its own problems but I am just highlighting one particular fault with phone polling which I think is potentially very serious.
..... Seriously older folk are very wary of the sales calls and sift out numbers and use BT services to block and divert etc.
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I would guess that they want less intereference in their life and the EC is not something they welcome.MarqueeMark said:
Polling is not reaching those who want life to be on their own terms. We might call them the "Bugger Off! Tendency" How do we think they will vote on the EU?TCPoliticalBetting said:
Older people do not like answering the phone as much as other groups these days (sales calls). Before the GE this group was harder to contact and the more conservative leaning ones in particular. So unless the phone polls have fully fixed this they are just not including enough 65+ conservative voters in their samples. These are strongly against europe yet some phone polling is showing the opposite.... Have they said that it has been fixed?TheScreamingEagles said:
My own theory is phone polls have a lower UKIP VI, the lower the UKIP VI, the lower the share for Leave.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
But that doesn't explain it all.
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Nothing puts me off answering the phone landline or mobile more than robot callers.
I never answer calls unless I know who they are.0 -
I think the more prominent the Tories-for-out become, the more likely it is to drive turnout among Labour and Lib Dems for Remain. It can be sold as a way to kick the dying corpse of the 'nasty party' and tramp it into the dirt. That's why tone will be so important for anyone on the right saying we should leave.Sean_F said:So which is the correct figure? Nobody knows. I wouldn't be at all surprised though if Conservatives and UKIP made up about 60% of those who actually go out and vote on June 23rd. I think there's an enthusiasm gap between right and left on this issue.
The silent majority will vote against whichever side is the most shrill and fanatical.0 -
Neither will the SNP...TCPoliticalBetting said:Kezia aim for the election "Tories will not come second".
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I advanced than me argument that higher VI polls for UKIP got higher LEAVE scores a year or so ago and ended arguing with AntiFrank all day about it... Will he rebut this time?TCPoliticalBetting said:
Older people do not like answering the phone as much as other groups these days (sales calls). Before the GE this group was harder to contact and the more conservative leaning ones in particular. So unless the phone polls have fully fixed this they are just not including enough 65+ conservative voters in their samples. These are strongly against europe yet some phone polling is showing the opposite.... Have they said that it has been fixed?TheScreamingEagles said:
My own theory is phone polls have a lower UKIP VI, the lower the UKIP VI, the lower the share for Leave.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
But that doesn't explain it all.0 -
Perhaps. But, it's not an issue that gets left wing voters worked up to the same extent, and some of them will be perfectly happy to take a swipe at Cameron and Osborne.williamglenn said:
I think the more prominent the Tories-for-out become, the more likely it is to drive turnout among Labour and Lib Dems for Remain. It can be sold as a way to kick the dying corpse of the 'nasty party' and tramp it into the dirt. That's why tone will be so important for anyone on the right saying we should leave.Sean_F said:So which is the correct figure? Nobody knows. I wouldn't be at all surprised though if Conservatives and UKIP made up about 60% of those who actually go out and vote on June 23rd. I think there's an enthusiasm gap between right and left on this issue.
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Election Data
Over a third (34%) of @UKLabour members have voted for the Green party at some point.
@eldergill @UKLabour of those who voted for JC in September 40% have ever voted LibDem, 37% Green. The Green number in particular is high0 -
Given that the Tory camapign literature in Edinburgh is all about voting for Ruth Davidson and barely mentions the Conservatives I think it is relevant.Scott_P said:@AlanRoden: .@kdugdalemsp on @daily_politics repeats the sensational claim that "@RuthDavidsonMSP is a Tory".
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Although having pretty much decided to vote LEAVE, I have to say that I was hugely impressed by David Cameron's terrific performance in the House of Commons yesterday ..... a real tour de force to be sure.
Answering dozens of very varied questions from all shades of political opinion he was totally in command of all the facts and figures.
It is difficult to think of any leader in modern times who has delivered such an impressive performance.
If and when he resigns as Prime Minister he will be a great loss to the HoC it has to be said, irrespective of one's personal political persuasion.0 -
Would look that way to me too....TCPoliticalBetting said:
I would guess that they want less intereference in their life and the EC is not something they welcome.MarqueeMark said:
Polling is not reaching those who want life to be on their own terms. We might call them the "Bugger Off! Tendency" How do we think they will vote on the EU?TCPoliticalBetting said:
Older people do not like answering the phone as much as other groups these days (sales calls). Before the GE this group was harder to contact and the more conservative leaning ones in particular. So unless the phone polls have fully fixed this they are just not including enough 65+ conservative voters in their samples. These are strongly against europe yet some phone polling is showing the opposite.... Have they said that it has been fixed?TheScreamingEagles said:
My own theory is phone polls have a lower UKIP VI, the lower the UKIP VI, the lower the share for Leave.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
But that doesn't explain it all.
When the pollsters get the Referendum wrong as well, we can point them to this thread.0 -
Catching up on the previous thread, I agree with Mr Meeks about Gove but disagree about his verdict on Osborne.
Unless we vote Leave, there will be plenty of water under the bridge before Cameron goes, and Osborne has already got enough MPs behind him to be sure of making the final.
I think (though I may be generalising from my own position) there are plenty of Tory members who will vote Leave but will be happy enough to vote for a Remainer.
Depending on the tenor of the referendum debate, there may also be membership resignations from Leavers, which will affect the arithmetic.
To my mind, the more interesting question now is whether Osborne might be starting to prefer Boris as his opponent. Boris's stardust owes quite a lot to never having been in power (over most of the country; arguably over London too) and thus being unsullied by the decisions of office. That will change.0 -
1) If fewer young British people want to get low paid jobs in catering because they've got better opportunities elsewhere, that's a good thing not a bad thing.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Rupa now complaining that overseas students should be allowed to work in curry houses....TCPoliticalBetting said:Labour's latest fightback strategy on DP show. Rupa Huq Lab MP arguing for more immigrant workers to be let in due to a need for curry chefs. Complains that because training not working this justifies importing more.
I had read that young british people with pakistan or bangladesh roots had higher than average levels of unemployment?
2) On supply and demand, if wages need to rise to attract curry chefs, so be it.
3) If that means that the price of a curry is going to rise, again, so be it.
4) Employment rates among Bengali women are still very low. Might that be a place to start looking?0 -
I'm trying to make it a thing.ThreeQuidder said:
Your desire to make all the polls say the same thing is interesting, not least because in May they did!Alistair said:
ALEURP and everything will be fine.TheScreamingEagles said:
My own theory is phone polls have a lower UKIP VI, the lower the UKIP VI, the lower the share for Leave.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
But that doesn't explain it all.0 -
Maybe, but then again younger people are more confident users of technology and tend to skew towards Remain. One can spin these stories either way.TCPoliticalBetting said:
People more savvy and more experienced choose who they talk to?Wanderer said:
True about caller ID but it's not obvious why it would favour Remain (or disfavour Leave).Richard_Tyndall said:
As I have said before I think that phone polling has a fundemental problem that is increasing year by year. More and more people have caller ID on their phones. It is standard on all mobile phones and most modern phone systems for land lines have the facility even if not everyone uses it.TheScreamingEagles said:
My own theory is phone polls have a lower UKIP VI, the lower the UKIP VI, the lower the share for Leave.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
But that doesn't explain it all.
As such people these days have the ability to decide whether or not to answer the phone based on what the number is. I, and most people I know will not answer any 08- numbers or caller withheld/not available numbers. Increasingly a lot of people may not even answer a number they don't recognise.
It is easy to see how being unable to reach these people could seriously skew the rules of phone polling.
This is not to say that internet polling doesn't have its own problems but I am just highlighting one particular fault with phone polling which I think is potentially very serious.
..... Seriously older folk are very wary of the sales calls and sift out numbers and use BT services to block and divert etc.0 -
My landline never rings at all, except for friends. Presumably that's because I'm ex-directory and haven't been giving the number to credit card suppliers etc. But I'm slightly surprised that I've never had a polling call (the one I got was on my mobile) - don't they use random number selection?Plato_Says said:Nothing puts me off answering the phone landline or mobile more than robot callers.
I never answer calls unless I know who they are.0 -
lt's time for curry-making robots.AlastairMeeks said:
1) If fewer young British people want to get low paid jobs in catering because they've got better opportunities elsewhere, that's a good thing not a bad thing.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Rupa now complaining that overseas students should be allowed to work in curry houses....TCPoliticalBetting said:Labour's latest fightback strategy on DP show. Rupa Huq Lab MP arguing for more immigrant workers to be let in due to a need for curry chefs. Complains that because training not working this justifies importing more.
I had read that young british people with pakistan or bangladesh roots had higher than average levels of unemployment?
2) On supply and demand, if wages need to rise to attract curry chefs, so be it.
3) If that means that the price of a curry is going to rise, again, so be it.
4) Employment rates among Bengali women are still very low. Might that be a place to start looking?0 -
Point 4AlastairMeeks said:
1) If fewer young British people want to get low paid jobs in catering because they've got better opportunities elsewhere, that's a good thing not a bad thing.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Rupa now complaining that overseas students should be allowed to work in curry houses....TCPoliticalBetting said:Labour's latest fightback strategy on DP show. Rupa Huq Lab MP arguing for more immigrant workers to be let in due to a need for curry chefs. Complains that because training not working this justifies importing more.
I had read that young british people with pakistan or bangladesh roots had higher than average levels of unemployment?
2) On supply and demand, if wages need to rise to attract curry chefs, so be it.
3) If that means that the price of a curry is going to rise, again, so be it.
4) Employment rates among Bengali women are still very low. Might that be a place to start looking?
Yes maybe we will get Muslims to become atheists0 -
The reality of the choice is do you want to stay in the EU as it is or not. Cameron's made a complete prat of himself "negotiating" the square root of f-All. Boris like quite a few can see that, but whether enough of the small c conservative Brit voters actually want any change, I doubt.
From a broader political viewpoint, Osborne and Javid become the government choice for next PM vs. Boris & Gove as the opposition. Come 2020, the electorate will already effectively have seen the election and won't be bothered voting for the massive, huge leap leftwards the Comrades want.
Win Win for Tories on either referendum result.0 -
The silent majority will stay silent and not vote.williamglenn said:The silent majority will vote against whichever side is the most shrill and fanatical.
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I agree on that point - no reason to assume one or the other is correct. But either way I expect sentiment to move towards Remain during the campaign (having moved towards Leave during the negotiations).Sean_F said:
A very complacent article. Neither telephone nor online polls have proved obviously more reliable than the other.Tissue_Price said:
In which you are aligned with Atul Hatwal.murali_s said:Beware the sky "Remain" vote - it's obvious that the "Leave" bandwagon will be more vocal - we've seen all of this before viz. Scottish Referendum and GE15.
Still calling it for Remain by 15 percentage points.
Immigration is the issue that many Brexiteers think will tip the balance their way. But just as Ukip found last year, they’re misreading the polls.
There is a very familiar gap between the number who view immigration as the most important issue facing the country and those who view it as important to their household’s well-being.
At the general election, 51% thought immigration was the key issue facing Britain but only 21% believed it mattered most to their lives.
Unsurprisingly, immigration was not a major factor in the contest.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/02/23/remain-will-win-easily-boris-will-be-irrelevant-and-immigration-will-barely-register-in-voters-choice/#more-206200 -
Likewise - I don't answer numbers I don't know. So if they don't leave a message, they don't get a call back....Plato_Says said:Nothing puts me off answering the phone landline or mobile more than robot callers.
I never answer calls unless I know who they are.
The cold-calling industry has much to answer for.0 -
They Know Where You Live.....NickPalmer said:
My landline never rings at all, except for friends. Presumably that's because I'm ex-directory and haven't been giving the number to credit card suppliers etc. But I'm slightly surprised that I've never had a polling call (the one I got was on my mobile) - don't they use random number selection?Plato_Says said:Nothing puts me off answering the phone landline or mobile more than robot callers.
I never answer calls unless I know who they are.0 -
My landline is ex directory and gets PPI calls four times a day for a week, then a fortnight off, then they return.
My mobile gets them or spurious accident ones every few days. It's really annoying.NickPalmer said:
My landline never rings at all, except for friends. Presumably that's because I'm ex-directory and haven't been giving the number to credit card suppliers etc. But I'm slightly surprised that I've never had a polling call (the one I got was on my mobile) - don't they use random number selection?Plato_Says said:Nothing puts me off answering the phone landline or mobile more than robot callers.
I never answer calls unless I know who they are.0 -
Unless they are motivated to stop something they don't like the look of. If the campaign is dominated by IDS/Redwood/Farage saying, "Who governs Britain?" Their answer will be, "Not you, matey!"Indigo said:
The silent majority will stay silent and not vote.williamglenn said:The silent majority will vote against whichever side is the most shrill and fanatical.
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But younger people are likely to be predominantly mobile phone users, so they will be screening calls by default.Wanderer said:Maybe, but then again younger people are more confident users of technology and tend to skew towards Remain. One can spin these stories either way.
So who exactly are phone pollsters still reaching? Younger people who don't have mobile phones, and pensioners who blithely answer every landline call? Those must be two rapidly shrinking groups of the population.
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I think it will move too, but not massively.Tissue_Price said:
I agree on that point - no reason to assume one or the other is correct. But either way I expect sentiment to move towards Remain during the campaign (having moved towards Leave during the negotiations).Sean_F said:
A very complacent article. Neither telephone nor online polls have proved obviously more reliable than the other.Tissue_Price said:
In which you are aligned with Atul Hatwal.murali_s said:Beware the sky "Remain" vote - it's obvious that the "Leave" bandwagon will be more vocal - we've seen all of this before viz. Scottish Referendum and GE15.
Still calling it for Remain by 15 percentage points.
Immigration is the issue that many Brexiteers think will tip the balance their way. But just as Ukip found last year, they’re misreading the polls.
There is a very familiar gap between the number who view immigration as the most important issue facing the country and those who view it as important to their household’s well-being.
At the general election, 51% thought immigration was the key issue facing Britain but only 21% believed it mattered most to their lives.
Unsurprisingly, immigration was not a major factor in the contest.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/02/23/remain-will-win-easily-boris-will-be-irrelevant-and-immigration-will-barely-register-in-voters-choice/#more-20620
I think we'd be talking a 3-4% swing rather than a 10% swing as feeling on this is so visceral.
But, what the hell do I know? No-one really knows what's going to happen.0 -
All three Republican primaries have seen record turnout, the Trump effect. Democrats not enthused by the Bern or HRC.david_herdson said:FPT:
Yes. Two words of caution though. NH was an open primary where the GOP race was tighter and more interesting than the Dem one. It's possible and I think likely that independents will have tended towards the Republican primary to maximise their impact (which may also help explain the scale of Sanders' win).Pulpstar said:Keep an eye on Dem vs GOP turnout. Trump being ahead of Hilary in raw votes in New Hampshire could be a straw in the wind. Dem turnout in SC will be interesting.
Re SC, it is a Red state so there should be a higher turnout for the GOP by about 20%, all else being equal.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/feb/21/gop-sets-another-turnout-record-democrats-numbers-/
Trump is on 68 delegates now, he won one more than forecast in NH, Flamingo Kid goes down one. A big win in the right PR state becomes almost winner takes all.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/gop-primaries/270310-trump-wins-additional-nh-delegate0 -
@KennyFarq: What the actual fuck, as the young people say. https://t.co/STuj5CXpAp0
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Think you are just lucky. We are ex-directory and Telephone Preference and still we get the PPI calls.NickPalmer said:
My landline never rings at all, except for friends. Presumably that's because I'm ex-directory and haven't been giving the number to credit card suppliers etc. But I'm slightly surprised that I've never had a polling call (the one I got was on my mobile) - don't they use random number selection?Plato_Says said:Nothing puts me off answering the phone landline or mobile more than robot callers.
I never answer calls unless I know who they are.0 -
It doesn't seem that anyone is paying too much attention to the opinion polls.
Overnight Remain tightened from 1.53/1.54 to 1.46/1.47. Gamblers were presumably impressed by the Prime Minister yesterday, though for the life of me I can't see why one good day in Parliament makes much difference.0 -
Long time ago, BTs Director of CS decided to stop annoying customers with cold calls during Corrie and get the agents to answer the phones instead.
Rocket science at the time.MarqueeMark said:
Likewise - I don't answer numbers I don't know. So if they don't leave a message, they don't get a call back....Plato_Says said:Nothing puts me off answering the phone landline or mobile more than robot callers.
I never answer calls unless I know who they are.
The cold-calling industry has much to answer for.0 -
http://order-order.com/2016/02/23/mak-backs-in-after-telling-selectors-hed-back-out/
Some people showing their true colours. I actually don't hold somebody being In or Out against them, i.e. Gove out, Ken Clarke In, but some are just showing how much of a politician they really are.0 -
His two terms promise looks more like a blunder as time goes on. The Tories have no one as good at these kinds of basics to replace him.peter_from_putney said:Although having pretty much decided to vote LEAVE, I have to say that I was hugely impressed by David Cameron's terrific performance in the House of Commons yesterday ..... a real tour de force to be sure.
Answering dozens of very varied questions from all shades of political opinion he was totally in command of all the facts and figures.
It is difficult to think of any leader in modern times who has delivered such an impressive performance.
If and when he resigns as Prime Minister he will be a great loss to the HoC it has to be said, irrespective of one's personal political persuasion.0 -
I think the true answer is somewhere in between (phone polls underestimated UKIP at GE2015 but online overestimated them)TheScreamingEagles said:
My own theory is phone polls have a lower UKIP VI, the lower the UKIP VI, the lower the share for Leave.Sean_F said:I'm stumped to think of any reason for the discrepancy between the two methods of polling.
But that doesn't explain it all.0 -
I don't really think it is that visceral, but people are very interested. I had unprompted discussions about it at a party on the weekend (admittedly initiated by people who know I'm into politics) and likewise I have heard/overheard plenty of office conversations - the general temperature of both being "very soft Leave" - i.e. people who may well be swung by FUD.Casino_Royale said:
I think it will move too, but not massively.Tissue_Price said:
I agree on that point - no reason to assume one or the other is correct. But either way I expect sentiment to move towards Remain during the campaign (having moved towards Leave during the negotiations).Sean_F said:
A very complacent article. Neither telephone nor online polls have proved obviously more reliable than the other.Tissue_Price said:
In which you are aligned with Atul Hatwal.murali_s said:Beware the sky "Remain" vote - it's obvious that the "Leave" bandwagon will be more vocal - we've seen all of this before viz. Scottish Referendum and GE15.
Still calling it for Remain by 15 percentage points.
Immigration is the issue that many Brexiteers think will tip the balance their way. But just as Ukip found last year, they’re misreading the polls.
There is a very familiar gap between the number who view immigration as the most important issue facing the country and those who view it as important to their household’s well-being.
At the general election, 51% thought immigration was the key issue facing Britain but only 21% believed it mattered most to their lives.
Unsurprisingly, immigration was not a major factor in the contest.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/02/23/remain-will-win-easily-boris-will-be-irrelevant-and-immigration-will-barely-register-in-voters-choice/#more-20620
I think we'd be talking a 3-4% swing rather than a 10% swing as feeling on this is so visceral.
But, what the hell do I know? No-one really knows what's going to happen.0 -
Pollsters get alarmingly high numbers of public sector workers. I assume they're at home or free time to answer. Given their demographic is only 17% of the workforce, either this is really weird or misidentifying.glw said:
But younger people are likely to be predominantly mobile phone users, so they will be screening calls by default.Wanderer said:Maybe, but then again younger people are more confident users of technology and tend to skew towards Remain. One can spin these stories either way.
So who exactly are phone pollsters still reaching? Younger people who don't have mobile phones, and pensioners who blithely answer every landline call? Those must be two rapidly shrinking groups of the population.0 -
Yes a WTF. Was it written by Peter Bone or his wife?Scott_P said:@KennyFarq: What the actual fuck, as the young people say. https://t.co/STuj5CXpAp
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Oh my giddy aunt, please tell me that’s a GO spoof – makes the Galloway stunt look inspiredScott_P said:@KennyFarq: What the actual fuck, as the young people say. https://t.co/STuj5CXpAp
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Spot on - it's good to hear a Leave supporter who is not so blinkered.peter_from_putney said:Although having pretty much decided to vote LEAVE, I have to say that I was hugely impressed by David Cameron's terrific performance in the House of Commons yesterday ..... a real tour de force to be sure.
Answering dozens of very varied questions from all shades of political opinion he was totally in command of all the facts and figures.
It is difficult to think of any leader in modern times who has delivered such an impressive performance.
If and when he resigns as Prime Minister he will be a great loss to the HoC it has to be said, irrespective of one's personal political persuasion.0 -
Ditto. My MP is for Remain. I don't care a jot.
I'd be really pissed if she'd been a noisy Brexiteer and that influenced my vote.FrancisUrquhart said:http://order-order.com/2016/02/23/mak-backs-in-after-telling-selectors-hed-back-out/
Some people showing their true colours. I actually don't hold somebody being In or Out against them, i.e. Gove out, Ken Clarke In, but some are just showing how much of a politician they really are.0 -
It depends on what being "more favourable to the EU" means.Casino_Royale said:
There's dealing with them in terms of international diplomacy (PM, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary) that may well lead to becoming more favourable as a fellow member of a club.eek said:From previous thread
So those who have had to deal with the EU have become more pro-EU. One person who hasn't had any dealings with them is more anti-EU. Doesn't seem much of a storyCasino_Royale said:
Oh Lord.Plato_Says said:Tom Newton Dunn
Significant admission by PM at O2 Q&A: holding office has made him more pro-EU. Same with Hague, Hammond, Osborne. But Gove, the opposite.
Then again you have an ex-Chancellor and would in all probability have an ex-PM, if she were alive today, saying the opposite.
You also having serving ministers who are familiar with the impact of EU law in social, welfare, employment, justice and education policy who are all convinced of the case to Leave.
It could mean that, since we are a member and likely to remain one and since it plays such an important part in the governance of this country, it makes sense to make the best of it and work with it and try to get the best out of it. I expect that in a lot of cases such an approach (a) is more agreeable; and (b) may well be more effective. It's essentially an instrumentalist approach. An acceptance of reality. It is probably the best argument Remain has though it is a very passive argument at its heart.
The other could be people actually becoming more positive about it, both in principle and practice. Love, if you will.
It would be interesting to know how many of those choosing Remain are doing so for the first rather than the second reason.
I find it interesting that so many of the Ministers in the Justice Department have come out for Leave. When you are dealing with the actual nitty gritty of laws perhaps you are inclined to take a less rosy-eyed view? Who knows? The FCO and Defence are dealing with big picture, foreign, collective stuff where multinational and internal co-operation makes a lot of sense. When you're dealing with more domestic matters then dealing with the EU must feel much more like interference.
0 -
That's almost on a par for pathetic-ness with the 'businesses who've signed up for Stay'.Scott_P said:@KennyFarq: What the actual fuck, as the young people say. https://t.co/STuj5CXpAp
0 -
Do the same. Quite agree.MarqueeMark said:
Likewise - I don't answer numbers I don't know. So if they don't leave a message, they don't get a call back....Plato_Says said:Nothing puts me off answering the phone landline or mobile more than robot callers.
I never answer calls unless I know who they are.
The cold-calling industry has much to answer for.0 -
That's just embarrassing.Scott_P said:@KennyFarq: What the actual fuck, as the young people say. https://t.co/STuj5CXpAp
The benchmark for these things is the Lady Alba - Bad Romance spoof during the Scottish independence referendum which was genuinely brilliant.0 -
@JohnRentoul: Remain will win easily; Boris will be irrelevant – bold call by @atulh https://t.co/n1UlilkRRx0
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I now think the EU referendum will not be fatal to the Tory party nor cause a huge split or a sizeable defection to UKIP. Events of recent days have proved decisive in that IMHO.Plato_Says said:Ditto. My MP is for Remain. I don't care a jot.
I'd be really pissed if she'd been a noisy Brexiteer and that influenced my vote.FrancisUrquhart said:http://order-order.com/2016/02/23/mak-backs-in-after-telling-selectors-hed-back-out/
Some people showing their true colours. I actually don't hold somebody being In or Out against them, i.e. Gove out, Ken Clarke In, but some are just showing how much of a politician they really are.
However, it might well be fatal to Cameron, even if he wins.
0 -
A couple waited a week to claim a £32.5m National Lottery win because they were having their house decorated.Mrs Cannings, who still works as a teacher, said: "I know it sounds mad, but we had a guy in to paint the whole house.
"We'd been planning it for ages and had packed everything into boxes.
"We just thought it would be easier to wait."0 -
That almost the whole Justice team are backing VoteLeave is the highlight for me.
A strong case to be made on many hot button issues.Cyclefree said:
It depends on what being "more favourable to the EU" means.Casino_Royale said:
There's dealing with them in terms of international diplomacy (PM, Chancellor and Foreign Secretary) that may well lead to becoming more favourable as a fellow member of a club.eek said:From previous thread
So those who have had to deal with the EU have become more pro-EU. One person who hasn't had any dealings with them is more anti-EU. Doesn't seem much of a storyCasino_Royale said:
Oh Lord.Plato_Says said:Tom Newton Dunn
Significant admission by PM at O2 Q&A: holding office has made him more pro-EU. Same with Hague, Hammond, Osborne. But Gove, the opposite.
Then again you have an ex-Chancellor and would in all probability have an ex-PM, if she were alive today, saying the opposite.
You also having serving ministers who are familiar with the impact of EU law in social, welfare, employment, justice and education policy who are all convinced of the case to Leave.
It could mean that, since we are a member and likely to remain one and since it plays such an important part in the governance of this country, it makes sense to make the best of it and work with it and try to get the best out of it. I expect that in a lot of cases such an approach (a) is more agreeable; and (b) may well be more effective. It's essentially an instrumentalist approach. An acceptance of reality. It is probably the best argument Remain has though it is a very passive argument at its heart.
The other could be people actually becoming more positive about it, both in principle and practice. Love, if you will.
It would be interesting to know how many of those choosing Remain are doing so for the first rather than the second reason.
I find it interesting that so many of the Ministers in the Justice Department have come out for Leave. When you are dealing with the actual nitty gritty of laws perhaps you are inclined to take a less rosy-eyed view? Who knows? The FCO and Defence are dealing with big picture, foreign, collective stuff where multinational and internal co-operation makes a lot of sense. When you're dealing with more domestic matters then dealing with the EU must feel much more like interference.0 -
There will be a reckoning for these characters IMHO. Boundary redrawing coming soon.Plato_Says said:Ditto. My MP is for Remain. I don't care a jot.
I'd be really pissed if she'd been a noisy Brexiteer and that influenced my vote.FrancisUrquhart said:http://order-order.com/2016/02/23/mak-backs-in-after-telling-selectors-hed-back-out/
Some people showing their true colours. I actually don't hold somebody being In or Out against them, i.e. Gove out, Ken Clarke In, but some are just showing how much of a politician they really are.0 -
Perhaps it indicated that he was playing for keeps (to anyone who hadn't figured that out before).AlastairMeeks said:It doesn't seem that anyone is paying too much attention to the opinion polls.
Overnight Remain tightened from 1.53/1.54 to 1.46/1.47. Gamblers were presumably impressed by the Prime Minister yesterday, though for the life of me I can't see why one good day in Parliament makes much difference.0 -
Atul is 1/2 on bold calls - he had Cameron winning a majority and Corbyn finishing 4th.Scott_P said:@JohnRentoul: Remain will win easily; Boris will be irrelevant – bold call by @atulh https://t.co/n1UlilkRRx
0
