politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meet the man who could win the referendum for Leave
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And whether we can eject or exclude unsavoury people with unsavoury friends. We have to put up with our own inciters and hate preachers, I don't see why we should be forced to accept other peoples. Most states have the ability to declare a foreign national "persona non grata" and chuck them out the country, we cant at the moment with any EU citizen.SouthamObserver said:We are not going to stop passport holders from other EU countries travelling freely to the UK even if we vote to leave. So whethet we are in or out will make no difference in terms of the potential threats we face. The salient point is whether we will find it harder or easier to prevent attacks.
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None of us can see the future, but will you ever regret voting for the British people to be governed by their elected representatives, according to their own laws, trading with the whole world?SeanT said:
Jesus, shut the F up. Maybe he was genuinely undecided. How do you know?SouthamObserver said:
If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.Fenster said:Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.
If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.
Deep down I'm probably an instinctive sceptic but I don't know what way I'm going to vote in June. Is it too risky leaving right now, with chaos everywhere? Possibly. But is it riskier staying in, as the EU fails to reform? Very arguably.
It's a difficult choice for anyone with a brain. So Boris has a brain. There we go.0 -
So safeguards for the City. I wonder what he'll accept on free movement.Fenster said:
Yeah, that's why I said 'if' (though he has always been adept at taking the piss out of the EU's jobsworth rulings).SouthamObserver said:
If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.Fenster said:Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.
If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.
But I did hear on the news earlier that Boris has already set out his negotiating positions (months back) and he deems them not met, especially with regard to the city/financial sector.
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Osborne? Yawn! The big question is which side the City of London will back, and the big indication of that will be what Boris does next.
I noticed William James at Reuters saying the City of London backs Cameron's support for continued EU membership, but there's no hard evidence for that.
FTSE-100 companies have been polled, sure, but the City isn't the stock exchange. Share trading in the City is dwarfed by other financial activities. That's both in absolute terms - the forex market in the City is many times bigger than the stock market, and forex trading is much bigger than share trading globally - and in terms of the City's ranking in the world: top for forex, with about 40% of the world market; third place for shares, a long way behind New York.
The City dominates Britain, Boris will be on the winning side in the referendum, and those two statements are related.0 -
Just partook in a YouGov on the EURef/VI0
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The City is also very keen on free movement of goods, capital, people and services. Expect Boris Brexit to reflect that.John_N said:Osborne? Yawn! The big question is which side the City of London will back, and the big indication of that will be what Boris does next.
I noticed William James at Reuters saying the City of London backs Cameron's support for continued EU membership, but there's no hard evidence for that.
FTSE-100 companies have been polled, sure, but the City isn't the stock exchange. Share trading in the City is dwarfed by other financial activities. That's both in absolute terms - the forex market in the City is many times bigger than the stock market, and forex trading is much bigger than share trading globally - and in terms of the City's ranking in the world: top for forex, with about 40% of the world market; third place for shares, a long way behind New York.
The City dominates Britain, Boris will be on the winning side in the referendum, and those two statements are related.
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LauraK
IDS also reveals Cameron tried to get rest of EU to agree a brake on total number of EU migrants who could come to UK but got nowhere0 -
@SeanT
I have similar EU feelings, although the issue doesn't particularly move me. The drunken anarchist in me would love to tell all those arrogant suited luvvies in Brussels to fuck off while the irritatingly sensible good conscience in me realises no good will ever come of my drunken spite.
I'm happy that Boris has chosen the Brexit side though, because he is undeniably the most coruscatingly literate put-down artist in UK politics, after you.
He'll have them squirming.0 -
That IDS comment on free movement is very interesting. It looks like an EU red line if we are going to want continued access to the free market post-Brexit.0
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It's rare that in all my years here someone spouts complete nonsense, congratulations.
You've a downer on our biggest income generating industry, for what reason exactly?John_N said:Osborne? Yawn! The big question is which side the City of London will back, and the big indication of that will be what Boris does next.
I noticed William James at Reuters saying the City of London backs Cameron's support for continued EU membership, but there's no hard evidence for that.
FTSE-100 companies have been polled, sure, but the City isn't the stock exchange. Share trading in the City is dwarfed by other financial activities. That's both in absolute terms - the forex market in the City is many times bigger than the stock market, and forex trading is much bigger than share trading globally - and in terms of the City's ranking in the world: top for forex, with about 40% of the world market; third place for shares, a long way behind New York.
The City dominates Britain, Boris will be on the winning side in the referendum, and those two statements are related.0 -
Hardly an official call. My little bird tells me Boris will back Leave, but I'm not taking the BBC's word for it. His statement is due at 2200 GMT today, presumably simultaneously with its publication in the Torygraph, and I doubt his office have circulated it under embargo six hours early. I may be wrong, of course. There'll be some disinfo, and well, y'know, "the BBC understands"! :-)FrancisUrquhart said:Breaking...lunch over...England lose the cricket...BoJo makes his official call.
Boris Johnson to campaign to leave EU
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35626621
The price of Leave at the Betfair exchange has risen by 14% in the past few hours, back to where it was before the Brussels deal was announced.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Mr. Observer, South Korea doesn't have such an agreement.
F1: just seen the first Haas car. Apparently it's the HaasVF16. Speculation is rife that VF = Very Ferrari.0 -
Perhaps you should just take some Rioja rather than a blood pack to Africa with you? It'd have about the same effect...SeanT said:
I might well regret if Scotland then left, yes. Would they leave? Hard to say. I reckon they would bloviate a lot, but then possibly bottle it. Can't be sure tho. It's a huge unknown.RoyalBlue said:
None of us can see the future, but will you ever regret voting for the British people to be governed by their elected representatives, according to their own laws, trading with the whole world?SeanT said:
Jesus, shut the F up. Maybe he was genuinely undecided. How do you know?SouthamObserver said:
If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.Fenster said:Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.
If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.
Deep down I'm probably an instinctive sceptic but I don't know what way I'm going to vote in June. Is it too risky leaving right now, with chaos everywhere? Possibly. But is it riskier staying in, as the EU fails to reform? Very arguably.
It's a difficult choice for anyone with a brain. So Boris has a brain. There we go.
My other big worry is the City. On which so much of our prosperity depends.
My heart says LEAVE, my head says STAY FOR NOW, my liver says CAN WE HAVE SOME MORE OF THAT NICE RIOJA0 -
It didn't need one for a deal. But it did concede on many other issues.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Mr. Observer, South Korea doesn't have such an agreement.
F1: just seen the first Haas car. Apparently it's the HaasVF16. Speculation is rife that VF = Very Ferrari.
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Very much agreed and in that context yes I agree the UK authorities also have to bear some of the blame.another_richard said:
No problem.Richard_Tyndall said:
Sorry I was reacting to your comment that "UK politicians haven't done anything either". Since the discussion had been about Merkel and the EU making things worse with allowing all the refugees in I worked from that point. Clearly I misunderstood.another_richard said:
And where have I criticised Cameron over his handling of Syrian refugees ?
My original point was that we're can't blame the EU or Merkel for ALL of the jihadists currently within the EU as some of them would have been home grown while others would have been able to migrate into the EU for other reasons.
Merkel's madness has caused enough problems to highlight without the need to blame it for other things.0 -
It all depends on how it is defined.SouthamObserver said:That IDS comment on free movement is very interesting. It looks like an EU red line if we are going to want continued access to the free market post-Brexit.
The right to come and work is fine (I'd define that as access without a permit once oyu have a job offer). I'm not convinced by the right to come and look for work. And definitely not keen on the concept of the right to reside without work.
I'd assume that the EU would insist on the 1st, could negotiate the 2nd and give up the 3rd. For Brexit it is the opposite way around - so it seems to be that there is grounds for a deal to be done.0 -
As a conservative member, I would never vote for Boris Johnson for reasons too numerous to mention.
I seem to remember he is very pro-immigration, also didn't he want an amnesty for all illegal immigrants at one stage?
I'm sick and tired of the media obsession with him. This is now going to turn into the "Battle of the Old Etonians' and all serious debate will be lost.0 -
I think both Boris and Zac coming out for LEAVE - if indeed that is confirmed - says a lot about the lack of protection for the City that Cameron has delivered in the agreement. They both know how important the City is to London and the economy of the country and I think their failure to back the deal shows that ours fears from the reading of the text are justified.Plato_Says said:If Boris helps Leave win, he'll get my thanks - but no endorsement.
I'd give mine to Gove - and never thought I'd say that as he's so marmite. His statement really clinched it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
First impressions - Boris for leave may help leave but the issues are greater than Boris. I am open to the debates and if honest heart is leave head is remainMarqueeMark said:
Let's see if it stays at 35% when he flails around on the detail - as he did on Marr today....Big_G_NorthWales said:
35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie pointsLuckyguy1983 said:
What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.MarqueeMark said:
As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?kle4 said:
I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,MarqueeMark said:"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.
My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-356244090 -
No need to be sarcastic, old chap. Let's only congratulate each other when we mean it. What statement have I made that you think is "nonsense" (is it that there's no good reason to think the City supports continued EU membership? if so, please rebut), or is it my attitude you don't like?Plato_Says said:It's rare that in all my years here someone spouts complete nonsense, congratulations.
You've a downer on our biggest income generating industry, for what reason exactly
"For what reason, exactly", do you call financial activities an "industry"? Ever get the feeling you've been spun?0 -
The most risky set piece for Remain is going to be the intervention of Barack Obama, if it happens. BoJo's 'there's a guy called Mitt Romney' speech during the Olympics was one of the most rousing calls to patriotic can-do spirit that we've heard for a very long time and having the Yanks stick their oar in would provide the perfect foil for that kind of bloody-minded optimism.Fenster said:I'm happy that Boris has chosen the Brexit side though, because he is undeniably the most coruscatingly literate put-down artist in UK politics, after you.
He'll have them squirming.0 -
I agree with most of that,but the leave campaign does need a figure head,how well he will do,will have to be seen.LadyBucket said:As a conservative member, I would never vote for Boris Johnson for reasons too numerous to mention.
I seem to remember he is very pro-immigration, also didn't he want an amnesty for all illegal immigrants at one stage?
I'm sick and tired of the media obsession with him. This is now going to turn into the "Battle of the Old Etonians' and all serious debate will be lost.0 -
I find it concerning how many polls you partake in.TheScreamingEagles said:Just partook in a YouGov on the EURef/VI
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Oil at $110 wasn't enough to pursuade them. Oil at $30 certainly won't be.Charles said:
Perhaps you should just take some Rioja rather than a blood pack to Africa with you? It'd have about the same effect...SeanT said:
I might well regret if Scotland then left, yes. Would they leave? Hard to say. I reckon they would bloviate a lot, but then possibly bottle it. Can't be sure tho. It's a huge unknown.RoyalBlue said:
None of us can see the future, but will you ever regret voting for the British people to be governed by their elected representatives, according to their own laws, trading with the whole world?SeanT said:
Jesus, shut the F up. Maybe he was genuinely undecided. How do you know?SouthamObserver said:
If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.Fenster said:Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.
If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.
Deep down I'm probably an instinctive sceptic but I don't know what way I'm going to vote in June. Is it too risky leaving right now, with chaos everywhere? Possibly. But is it riskier staying in, as the EU fails to reform? Very arguably.
It's a difficult choice for anyone with a brain. So Boris has a brain. There we go.
My other big worry is the City. On which so much of our prosperity depends.
My heart says LEAVE, my head says STAY FOR NOW, my liver says CAN WE HAVE SOME MORE OF THAT NICE RIOJA0 -
I don't believe Cruz is a 70/1 shot for POTUS.
He has at least a 2% chance surely?0 -
bolloxPeterC said:
Oil at $110 wasn't enough to pursuade them. Oil at $30 certainly won't be.Charles said:
Perhaps you should just take some Rioja rather than a blood pack to Africa with you? It'd have about the same effect...SeanT said:
I might well regret if Scotland then left, yes. Would they leave? Hard to say. I reckon they would bloviate a lot, but then possibly bottle it. Can't be sure tho. It's a huge unknown.RoyalBlue said:
None of us can see the future, but will you ever regret voting for the British people to be governed by their elected representatives, according to their own laws, trading with the whole world?SeanT said:
Jesus, shut the F up. Maybe he was genuinely undecided. How do you know?SouthamObserver said:
If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.Fenster said:Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.
If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.
Deep down I'm probably an instinctive sceptic but I don't know what way I'm going to vote in June. Is it too risky leaving right now, with chaos everywhere? Possibly. But is it riskier staying in, as the EU fails to reform? Very arguably.
It's a difficult choice for anyone with a brain. So Boris has a brain. There we go.
My other big worry is the City. On which so much of our prosperity depends.
My heart says LEAVE, my head says STAY FOR NOW, my liver says CAN WE HAVE SOME MORE OF THAT NICE RIOJA0 -
It's true though, scotland can certainly not afford to be independent now, if it did it would need a bailout of death like the eurozone countries took.malcolmg said:
bolloxPeterC said:
Oil at $110 wasn't enough to pursuade them. Oil at $30 certainly won't be.Charles said:
Perhaps you should just take some Rioja rather than a blood pack to Africa with you? It'd have about the same effect...SeanT said:
I might well regret if Scotland then left, yes. Would they leave? Hard to say. I reckon they would bloviate a lot, but then possibly bottle it. Can't be sure tho. It's a huge unknown.RoyalBlue said:
None of us can see the future, but will you ever regret voting for the British people to be governed by their elected representatives, according to their own laws, trading with the whole world?SeanT said:
Jesus, shut the F up. Maybe he was genuinely undecided. How do you know?SouthamObserver said:
If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.Fenster said:Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.
If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.
Deep down I'm probably an instinctive sceptic but I don't know what way I'm going to vote in June. Is it too risky leaving right now, with chaos everywhere? Possibly. But is it riskier staying in, as the EU fails to reform? Very arguably.
It's a difficult choice for anyone with a brain. So Boris has a brain. There we go.
My other big worry is the City. On which so much of our prosperity depends.
My heart says LEAVE, my head says STAY FOR NOW, my liver says CAN WE HAVE SOME MORE OF THAT NICE RIOJA
If the SNP doesn't like Osborne, they will have to deal with the IMF.0 -
It's refreshing to see top ranking politicians showing some principle and giving oxygen to proper debate. Cameron and this Tory government have been far more tolerant of dissenting voices than the previous Labour government.
Could you imagine Gordon Brown's cabinet ministers publicly expressing an alternative argument? Even if one of them had privately desired to nuke Bavaria they would've fallen into line, such was their puny, petrified sycophancy.0 -
Yet there were 'undecided' PBers who emphasised protection for the City would be their key issue but who are now backing REMAIN.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think both Boris and Zac coming out for LEAVE - if indeed that is confirmed - says a lot about the lack of protection for the City that Cameron has delivered in the agreement. They both know how important the City is to London and the economy of the country and I think their failure to back the deal shows that ours fears from the reading of the text are justified.Plato_Says said:If Boris helps Leave win, he'll get my thanks - but no endorsement.
I'd give mine to Gove - and never thought I'd say that as he's so marmite. His statement really clinched it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
First impressions - Boris for leave may help leave but the issues are greater than Boris. I am open to the debates and if honest heart is leave head is remainMarqueeMark said:
Let's see if it stays at 35% when he flails around on the detail - as he did on Marr today....Big_G_NorthWales said:
35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie pointsLuckyguy1983 said:
What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.MarqueeMark said:
As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?kle4 said:
I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,MarqueeMark said:"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.
My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409
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you saw my response on previous thread?another_richard said:
Yet there were 'undecided' PBers who emphasised protection for the City would be their key issue but who are now backing REMAIN.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think both Boris and Zac coming out for LEAVE - if indeed that is confirmed - says a lot about the lack of protection for the City that Cameron has delivered in the agreement. They both know how important the City is to London and the economy of the country and I think their failure to back the deal shows that ours fears from the reading of the text are justified.Plato_Says said:If Boris helps Leave win, he'll get my thanks - but no endorsement.
I'd give mine to Gove - and never thought I'd say that as he's so marmite. His statement really clinched it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
First impressions - Boris for leave may help leave but the issues are greater than Boris. I am open to the debates and if honest heart is leave head is remainMarqueeMark said:
Let's see if it stays at 35% when he flails around on the detail - as he did on Marr today....Big_G_NorthWales said:
35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie pointsLuckyguy1983 said:
What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.MarqueeMark said:
As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?kle4 said:
I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,MarqueeMark said:"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.
My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-356244090 -
The idea that England might force Scotland out of the EU and then there might have to be another indyref is rubbish. How many in the SNP leadership have adopted the position that if Scotland should be "independent", then it should be "independent" of Brussels as well as "independent" of London, and therefore Brexit is the way to go? You'd have thought at least a few of them would take that line and claim it as theirs to make a mark, even if one can understand that both Brexit and Bremain push the British brand and restrict the overall scope for getting their kilts out. "Scotland in Europe" has long been a sort of over-compensation for Scot nats being thought of as the little Scotlanders that they actually are. It's like having a car sticker saying "Ecosse". "We're not inward-looking! Oh no! Absolutely not! We're nothing of the kind!"
Meanwhile in Northern Ireland, fear is being spread that Brexit might mean a return of border checks. In Kent, the bogeyman is a move of the jungle from Calais to Folkestone.
Latest news: the price of Leave has risen some more at the Betfair exchange. The Bogo effect!0 -
Meanwhile, in Germany:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35625595
Nothing speaks of social harmony like people cheering as a building burns.0 -
Seeing comments around like from James Forsyth to the effect of Cameron and Osborne not factoring Boris going for Leave into their calculations until recently and so on. I really struggle to believe that. They may have thought he would go for Remain in the end, but political wonks have speculated for a bloody year at least that Boris might consider going for Leave purely for leadership contender reasons, so I'm sure they considered the possibility and factored it into their calculations.
Doesn't mean they will not regret he is going that way, or have any bearing on whether they can defeat the Leavers or not, but it looks like transparent attempts at narrative building. "The Cameroons were STUNNED at the very possibility of this maverick genius turning from them, it is a DEVASTATING blow"0 -
A more detailed picture of the "winnowing' theory:
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks
Second choices of all voters:
Rubio 18
Cruz 17
Trump 12
Carson 12
Kasich 9
Bush 9
D/K 15
Bush second choices
Rubio 19
Kasich 16
Cruz 12
Trump 11
Carson 9
D/K 23
Kasich second choices
Rubio 24
Bush 21
Trump 16
Cruz 10
Carson 6
D/K 12
Carson second choices
Cruz 24
Trump 22
Rubio 16
Kasich 7
Bush 6
D/K 17
So the difference is not large enough to have an impact, we are talking single digit differences among single digit groups.
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He was in favour of an illegals amnesty.LadyBucket said:
As a conservative member, I would never vote for Boris Johnson for reasons too numerous to mention.
I seem to remember he is very pro-immigration, also didn't he want an amnesty for all illegal immigrants at one stage?
I'm sick and tired of the media obsession with him. This is now going to turn into the "Battle of the Old Etonians' and all serious debate will be lost.0 -
At last! Someone has remembered that there is a budget between now and the referendum.
And how many between now and the next leadership election?
In fact if the referendum is won it would not surprise me to see Gove as Chancellor and Osborne as Foreign Secretary. May at Justice and Hammond as Home Secretary, although foreign secs tend not to move sideways when they have reached that pinnacle.0 -
Nevertheless it is a feature of the last two months of Trump that he has been able to push from 30-35% to 40-45% as one might expect. He'll have another opportunity soon, but he's got to do it at least when Cruz drops out.Speedy said:A more detailed picture of the "winnowing' theory:
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks
Second choices of all voters:
Rubio 18
Cruz 17
Trump 12
Carson 12
Kasich 9
Bush 9
D/K 15
Bush second choices
Rubio 19
Kasich 16
Cruz 12
Trump 11
Carson 9
D/K 23
Kasich second choices
Rubio 24
Bush 21
Trump 16
Cruz 10
Carson 6
D/K 12
Carson second choices
Cruz 24
Trump 22
Rubio 16
Kasich 7
Bush 6
D/K 17
So the differences is not large enough to have an impact, we are talking single digit differences among single digit groups.
If Cruz drops after super Tuesday, 60/40 Rubio/Trump would see Rubio home thereafter.0 -
Chapess, if you don't mind.John_N said:
No need to be sarcastic, old chap. Let's only congratulate each other when we mean it. What statement have I made that you think is "nonsense" (is it that there's no good reason to think the City supports continued EU membership? if so, please rebut), or is it my attitude you don't like?Plato_Says said:It's rare that in all my years here someone spouts complete nonsense, congratulations.
You've a downer on our biggest income generating industry, for what reason exactly
"For what reason, exactly", do you call financial activities an "industry"? Ever get the feeling you've been spun?0 -
I quite agree. I did a lengthy YouGov today on groceries.
I see a political one maybe once a month.tlg86 said:
I find it concerning how many polls you partake in.TheScreamingEagles said:Just partook in a YouGov on the EURef/VI
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The pollsters love me. I'm an underrepresented demographic in what was a key seat at the 2015 general election.tlg86 said:
I find it concerning how many polls you partake in.TheScreamingEagles said:Just partook in a YouGov on the EURef/VI
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Gove would actually make a good European Commissioner although he'd presumably not make it through the confirmation process having campaigned to leave. It would be a nice way to indicate to Brussels that a Remain victory did not mean that the UK would cease to look after its interests.flightpath01 said:In fact if the referendum is won it would not surprise me to see Gove as Chancellor and Osborne as Foreign Secretary.
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Andrew Neil
Now we don't have to wait for his Telegraph column. Boris to reveal all 17.00 Sky News. The world holds its breath ...0 -
They have no alternative, with a clear fault-line running through the Tory party, the memories of the 90's, UKIP scaring them a bit, and no GE election in sight.Fenster said:It's refreshing to see top ranking politicians showing some principle and giving oxygen to proper debate. Cameron and this Tory government have been far more tolerant of dissenting voices than the previous Labour government.
Could you imagine Gordon Brown's cabinet ministers publicly expressing an alternative argument? Even if one of them had privately desired to nuke Bavaria they would've fallen into line, such was their puny, petrified sycophancy.
Also Cameron is entering the lame duck period and everyone is focusing on the succession.
So Cameron has limited authority at present, and can't afford to stifle dissent when he is in the minority of his party and the majority is very vocal, the memories of the 90's are too strong for any attempt.0 -
Yet there were 'undecided' PBers who emphasised protection for the City would be their key issue but who are now backing REMAIN.
ha0 -
Trump will probably break that threshold on Tuesday in Nevada and it should be plain sailing after that.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Nevertheless it is a feature of the last two months of Trump that he has been able to push from 30-35% to 40-45% as one might expect. He'll have another opportunity soon, but he's got to do it at least when Cruz drops out.Speedy said:A more detailed picture of the "winnowing' theory:
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks
Second choices of all voters:
Rubio 18
Cruz 17
Trump 12
Carson 12
Kasich 9
Bush 9
D/K 15
Bush second choices
Rubio 19
Kasich 16
Cruz 12
Trump 11
Carson 9
D/K 23
Kasich second choices
Rubio 24
Bush 21
Trump 16
Cruz 10
Carson 6
D/K 12
Carson second choices
Cruz 24
Trump 22
Rubio 16
Kasich 7
Bush 6
D/K 17
So the differences is not large enough to have an impact, we are talking single digit differences among single digit groups.
If Cruz drops after super Tuesday, 60/40 Rubio/Trump would see Rubio home thereafter.0 -
Underrepresented, but not representative, methinksTheScreamingEagles said:
The pollsters love me. I'm an underrepresented demographic in what was a key seat at the 2015 general election.tlg86 said:
I find it concerning how many polls you partake in.TheScreamingEagles said:Just partook in a YouGov on the EURef/VI
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Great protection for the City as reported in the DT....Richard_Tyndall said:
I think both Boris and Zac coming out for LEAVE - if indeed that is confirmed - says a lot about the lack of protection for the City that Cameron has delivered in the agreement. They both know how important the City is to London and the economy of the country and I think their failure to back the deal shows that ours fears from the reading of the text are justified.Plato_Says said:If Boris helps Leave win, he'll get my thanks - but no endorsement.
I'd give mine to Gove - and never thought I'd say that as he's so marmite. His statement really clinched it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
First impressions - Boris for leave may help leave but the issues are greater than Boris. I am open to the debates and if honest heart is leave head is remainMarqueeMark said:
Let's see if it stays at 35% when he flails around on the detail - as he did on Marr today....Big_G_NorthWales said:
35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie pointsLuckyguy1983 said:
What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.MarqueeMark said:
As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?kle4 said:
I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,MarqueeMark said:"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.
My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12164954/EU-deal-How-David-Cameron-took-on-the-eurozone-and-won.html
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Says more about you than Labour.Fenster said:It's refreshing to see top ranking politicians showing some principle and giving oxygen to proper debate. Cameron and this Tory government have been far more tolerant of dissenting voices than the previous Labour government.
Could you imagine Gordon Brown's cabinet ministers publicly expressing an alternative argument? Even if one of them had privately desired to nuke Bavaria they would've fallen into line, such was their puny, petrified sycophancy.
James Purnell and Alistair Darling to name two were hardly sychophants to Brown.0 -
Rather enjoyed this
Raymond Doetjes
Yes to a #BREXIT and this is evidence why! https://t.co/YtpYylsZ3N0 -
I speak for England, The U.K. and the Tory Party.Charles said:
Underrepresented, but not representative, methinksTheScreamingEagles said:
The pollsters love me. I'm an underrepresented demographic in what was a key seat at the 2015 general election.tlg86 said:
I find it concerning how many polls you partake in.TheScreamingEagles said:Just partook in a YouGov on the EURef/VI
0 -
Cruz voters second choicesTheWhiteRabbit said:
Nevertheless it is a feature of the last two months of Trump that he has been able to push from 30-35% to 40-45% as one might expect. He'll have another opportunity soon, but he's got to do it at least when Cruz drops out.Speedy said:A more detailed picture of the "winnowing' theory:
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks
Second choices of all voters:
Rubio 18
Cruz 17
Trump 12
Carson 12
Kasich 9
Bush 9
D/K 15
Bush second choices
Rubio 19
Kasich 16
Cruz 12
Trump 11
Carson 9
D/K 23
Kasich second choices
Rubio 24
Bush 21
Trump 16
Cruz 10
Carson 6
D/K 12
Carson second choices
Cruz 24
Trump 22
Rubio 16
Kasich 7
Bush 6
D/K 17
So the differences is not large enough to have an impact, we are talking single digit differences among single digit groups.
If Cruz drops after super Tuesday, 60/40 Rubio/Trump would see Rubio home thereafter.
Rubio 33
Trump 26
Carson 17
Bush 7
Kasich 3
D/K 9
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks
Not enough for Rubio to close the gap in the very unlikely event that Cruz drops out.
If Trump is at 35 and gains 25% of the other candidates 65 then he gets 51% of the vote.0 -
Boris Johnson is a Yank too, the genuine item - a US-passport-carrying burgermunching Merkin.LadyBucket said:As a conservative member, I would never vote for Boris Johnson for reasons too numerous to mention.
I seem to remember he is very pro-immigration, also didn't he want an amnesty for all illegal immigrants at one stage?
Whenever he goes to the US, he must enter on his US passport. He'd be breaking US law if he entered on his "Briddish" one.
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Er no. I am afraid you have been taken in by a paper that would support the EU even if it was massacring the first born.perdix said:
Great protection for the City as reported in the DT....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12164954/EU-deal-How-David-Cameron-took-on-the-eurozone-and-won.html
If you look at the briefing from Open Europe that I posted earlier - remembering that the Director of Open Europe was one of Cameron's negotiating team - then you will see there is no protection at all. Not one iota.
We will be bound by the Single rulebook for the whole EU for financial matters. If any proposed legislation comes forward under that rulebook that would affect the city then we can point this out and say we want to discuss it. There will then be time limited discussions at the end of which the rest of the EU can still impose the new legislation even if we still object.
That is what is written in the agreement that Cameron negotiated.
I don't care what spin the FT puts on it. That is no protection at all.0 -
Why would Cruz drop out? He could be kingmaker in a brokered convention and needs as many delegates as possible for that. Also, being seen as runner up could help him next time. Hes also certain to win states on Super Tuesday. Will Rubio??Speedy said:
Cruz voters second choicesTheWhiteRabbit said:
Nevertheless it is a feature of the last two months of Trump that he has been able to push from 30-35% to 40-45% as one might expect. He'll have another opportunity soon, but he's got to do it at least when Cruz drops out.Speedy said:A more detailed picture of the "winnowing' theory:
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks
Second choices of all voters:
Rubio 18
Cruz 17
Trump 12
Carson 12
Kasich 9
Bush 9
D/K 15
Bush second choices
Rubio 19
Kasich 16
Cruz 12
Trump 11
Carson 9
D/K 23
Kasich second choices
Rubio 24
Bush 21
Trump 16
Cruz 10
Carson 6
D/K 12
Carson second choices
Cruz 24
Trump 22
Rubio 16
Kasich 7
Bush 6
D/K 17
So the differences is not large enough to have an impact, we are talking single digit differences among single digit groups.
If Cruz drops after super Tuesday, 60/40 Rubio/Trump would see Rubio home thereafter.
Rubio 33
Trump 26
Carson 17
Bush 7
Kasich 3
D/K 9
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks
Not enough for Rubio to close the gap in the very unlikely event that Cruz drops out.0 -
That seems like a ridiculous reason to reject someone.John_N said:
Boris Johnson is a Yank too, the genuine item - a US-passport-carrying burgermunching Merkin.LadyBucket said:As a conservative member, I would never vote for Boris Johnson for reasons too numerous to mention.
I seem to remember he is very pro-immigration, also didn't he want an amnesty for all illegal immigrants at one stage?
Whenever he goes to the US, he must enter on his US passport. He'd be breaking US law if he entered on his "Briddish" one.0 -
An interesting view of the Telegraph.Richard_Tyndall said:
Er no. I am afraid you have been taken in by a paper that would support the EU even if it was massacring the first born.perdix said:
Great protection for the City as reported in the DT....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12164954/EU-deal-How-David-Cameron-took-on-the-eurozone-and-won.html
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No you don't. You speak for a lawyer in Sheffield.TheScreamingEagles said:
I speak for England, The U.K. and the Tory Party.Charles said:
Underrepresented, but not representative, methinksTheScreamingEagles said:
The pollsters love me. I'm an underrepresented demographic in what was a key seat at the 2015 general election.tlg86 said:
I find it concerning how many polls you partake in.TheScreamingEagles said:Just partook in a YouGov on the EURef/VI
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Oil i snot the be all and end all for Scotland. We would not have to pay for the obscene borrowing of UK etc and could easily borrow a la UK and change the business model. Not paying for lots of the UK vanity would make a huge dent in any deficit. Lots and lots of small countries without any oil do very well, no reason why Scotland could not do the same.Speedy said:
It's true though, scotland can certainly not afford to be independent now, if it did it would need a bailout of death like the eurozone countries took.malcolmg said:
bolloxPeterC said:
Oil at $110 wasn't enough to pursuade them. Oil at $30 certainly won't be.Charles said:
Perhaps you should just take some Rioja rather than a blood pack to Africa with you? It'd have about the same effect...SeanT said:
I might well regret if Scotland then left, yes. Would they leave? Hard to say. I reckon they would bloviate a lot, but then possibly bottle it. Can't be sure tho. It's a huge unknown.RoyalBlue said:
None of us can see the future, but will you ever regret voting for the British people to be governed by their elected representatives, according to their own laws, trading with the whole world?SeanT said:
Jesus, shut the F up. Maybe he was genuinely undecided. How do you know?SouthamObserver said:
If it was principle he would already have made his choice. Rightly, he sees supporting Leave as his quickest and best route to Number 10. I wonder if he'll be asked his negotiating positions for Brexit.Fenster said:Anybody who has read Boris's columns this past 15 years will know he is instinctively at odds with the EU.
If he has chosen the Brexit side out of principle rather than ambition then good on him.
Deep down I'm probably an instinctive sceptic but I don't know what way I'm going to vote in June. Is it too risky leaving right now, with chaos everywhere? Possibly. But is it riskier staying in, as the EU fails to reform? Very arguably.
It's a difficult choice for anyone with a brain. So Boris has a brain. There we go.
My other big worry is the City. On which so much of our prosperity depends.
My heart says LEAVE, my head says STAY FOR NOW, my liver says CAN WE HAVE SOME MORE OF THAT NICE RIOJA
If the SNP doesn't like Osborne, they will have to deal with the IMF.0 -
Cruz won't drop out, he has the pastors vote and money from the mega-churches and he's the only one who won anything apart from Trump.NorfolkTilIDie said:
Why would Cruz drop out? He could be kingmaker in a brokered convention and needs as many delegates as possible for that. Also, being seen as runner up could help him next time. Hes also certain to win states on Super Tuesday. Will Rubio??Speedy said:
Cruz voters second choicesTheWhiteRabbit said:
Nevertheless it is a feature of the last two months of Trump that he has been able to push from 30-35% to 40-45% as one might expect. He'll have another opportunity soon, but he's got to do it at least when Cruz drops out.Speedy said:A more detailed picture of the "winnowing' theory:
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks
Second choices of all voters:
Rubio 18
Cruz 17
Trump 12
Carson 12
Kasich 9
Bush 9
D/K 15
Bush second choices
Rubio 19
Kasich 16
Cruz 12
Trump 11
Carson 9
D/K 23
Kasich second choices
Rubio 24
Bush 21
Trump 16
Cruz 10
Carson 6
D/K 12
Carson second choices
Cruz 24
Trump 22
Rubio 16
Kasich 7
Bush 6
D/K 17
So the differences is not large enough to have an impact, we are talking single digit differences among single digit groups.
If Cruz drops after super Tuesday, 60/40 Rubio/Trump would see Rubio home thereafter.
Rubio 33
Trump 26
Carson 17
Bush 7
Kasich 3
D/K 9
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks
Not enough for Rubio to close the gap in the very unlikely event that Cruz drops out.
The Cruz battle plan is very similar to Rubio's:
1. Get rid of Rubio/Cruz.
2. Get rid of Carson/Kasich.
3. Win Texas/Florida.
4. Automatically beat Trump when down to one on one.
Their priority is getting each other out of the way before everything else, Trump is no.4 on their list.0 -
It's not just the lack of protection. It's that the current deal is, arguably, worse than the status quo. It takes special skills to end up in a worse position after negotiations designed to improve Britain's position.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think both Boris and Zac coming out for LEAVE - if indeed that is confirmed - says a lot about the lack of protection for the City that Cameron has delivered in the agreement. They both know how important the City is to London and the economy of the country and I think their failure to back the deal shows that ours fears from the reading of the text are justified.Plato_Says said:If Boris helps Leave win, he'll get my thanks - but no endorsement.
I'd give mine to Gove - and never thought I'd say that as he's so marmite. His statement really clinched it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
First impressions - Boris for leave may help leave but the issues are greater than Boris. I am open to the debates and if honest heart is leave head is remainMarqueeMark said:
Let's see if it stays at 35% when he flails around on the detail - as he did on Marr today....Big_G_NorthWales said:
35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie pointsLuckyguy1983 said:
What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.MarqueeMark said:
As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?kle4 said:
I don't know who people will believe on that point, but IDS is essentially saying Cameron is risking our security and safety (as Cameron is saying about IDS with his statements) - how are people going to remain polite when making that kind of implication? And they are making that very serious accusation, if obliquely, right from the start,MarqueeMark said:"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.
My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409
Who the fuck did Cameron have advising him? Varoufakis?
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Plus didn't he renounce his US citizenship a couple of years ago?NorfolkTilIDie said:
That seems like a ridiculous reason to reject someone.John_N said:
Boris Johnson is a Yank too, the genuine item - a US-passport-carrying burgermunching Merkin.LadyBucket said:As a conservative member, I would never vote for Boris Johnson for reasons too numerous to mention.
I seem to remember he is very pro-immigration, also didn't he want an amnesty for all illegal immigrants at one stage?
Whenever he goes to the US, he must enter on his US passport. He'd be breaking US law if he entered on his "Briddish" one.0 -
Fair point. Tolerated dissension ended well for Purnell.Yorkcity said:
Says more about you than Labour.Fenster said:It's refreshing to see top ranking politicians showing some principle and giving oxygen to proper debate. Cameron and this Tory government have been far more tolerant of dissenting voices than the previous Labour government.
Could you imagine Gordon Brown's cabinet ministers publicly expressing an alternative argument? Even if one of them had privately desired to nuke Bavaria they would've fallen into line, such was their puny, petrified sycophancy.
James Purnell and Alistair Darling to name two were hardly sychophants to Brown.
Where's he now? Head of Television at BBC3?
Anyway, you at least have a broader spectrum of political philosophies under Corbyn's leadership, all the way from socialism on the hard left to communism on the extreme left.
Enjoy your 24% at the GE, whilst the Tories do what the feck they like.0 -
Dan Hannan
Welcome, @BorisJohnson. Or, as you might put it, "χρὴ ξεῖνον παρεόντα φιλεῖν, ἐθέλοντα δὲ πέμπειν." https://t.co/c1p0r1lfuz0 -
I did and thanks for the reply. I am not including you within my previous comment.Charles said:
you saw my response on previous thread?another_richard said:
Yet there were 'undecided' PBers who emphasised protection for the City would be their key issue but who are now backing REMAIN.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think both Boris and Zac coming out for LEAVE - if indeed that is confirmed - says a lot about the lack of protection for the City that Cameron has delivered in the agreement. They both know how important the City is to London and the economy of the country and I think their failure to back the deal shows that ours fears from the reading of the text are justified.
As to Cameron's negotiating ability its clear that my doubts were valid from the response of numerous PBers of all beliefs to the outcome Cameron has achieved.
0 -
LOL. I thought is was the FT. The point still remains as far as protection of the City goes though. There is none. Indeed as Miss Cyclefree has pointed out it is actually worse than if we had had no deal at all.ThreeQuidder said:
An interesting view of the Telegraph.Richard_Tyndall said:
Er no. I am afraid you have been taken in by a paper that would support the EU even if it was massacring the first born.perdix said:
Great protection for the City as reported in the DT....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12164954/EU-deal-How-David-Cameron-took-on-the-eurozone-and-won.html0 -
Your village is looking for their Little Englander idiot. As if we did not have enough raving loons on here , another halfwit who could not point to Scotland on a map turnsupJohn_N said:The idea that England might force Scotland out of the EU and then there might have to be another indyref is rubbish. How many in the SNP leadership have adopted the position that if Scotland should be "independent", then it should be "independent" of Brussels as well as "independent" of London, and therefore Brexit is the way to go? You'd have thought at least a few of them would take that line and claim it as theirs to make a mark, even if one can understand that both Brexit and Bremain push the British brand and restrict the overall scope for getting their kilts out. "Scotland in Europe" has long been a sort of over-compensation for Scot nats being thought of as the little Scotlanders that they actually are. It's like having a car sticker saying "Ecosse". "We're not inward-looking! Oh no! Absolutely not! We're nothing of the kind!"
Meanwhile in Northern Ireland, fear is being spread that Brexit might mean a return of border checks. In Kent, the bogeyman is a move of the jungle from Calais to Folkestone.
Latest news: the price of Leave has risen some more at the Betfair exchange. The Bogo effect!0 -
This is spot on. I don't necessarily think it would be easy and I don't think it would be possible for many years to reconcile the socialist wishes of the SNP with the realities of an independent Scotland but in the end they would certainly make good. Oil revenue, however slight, could only help.malcolmg said:
Oil is not the be all and end all for Scotland. We would not have to pay for the obscene borrowing of UK etc and could easily borrow a la UK and change the business model. Not paying for lots of the UK vanity would make a huge dent in any deficit. Lots and lots of small countries without any oil do very well, no reason why Scotland could not do the same.0 -
malcmalcolmg said:
Your village is looking for their Little Englander idiot. As if we did not have enough raving loons on here , another halfwit who could not point to Scotland on a map turnsupJohn_N said:The idea that England might force Scotland out of the EU and then there might have to be another indyref is rubbish. How many in the SNP leadership have adopted the position that if Scotland should be "independent", then it should be "independent" of Brussels as well as "independent" of London, and therefore Brexit is the way to go? You'd have thought at least a few of them would take that line and claim it as theirs to make a mark, even if one can understand that both Brexit and Bremain push the British brand and restrict the overall scope for getting their kilts out. "Scotland in Europe" has long been a sort of over-compensation for Scot nats being thought of as the little Scotlanders that they actually are. It's like having a car sticker saying "Ecosse". "We're not inward-looking! Oh no! Absolutely not! We're nothing of the kind!"
Meanwhile in Northern Ireland, fear is being spread that Brexit might mean a return of border checks. In Kent, the bogeyman is a move of the jungle from Calais to Folkestone.
Latest news: the price of Leave has risen some more at the Betfair exchange. The Bogo effect!
got your note, and yes it's exactly the same down here.0 -
Agree , it would be far from plain sailing but is very feasible and not as some of the lesser lights on here imagine.Richard_Tyndall said:
This is spot on. I don't necessarily think it would be easy and I don't think it would be possible for many years to reconcile the socialist wishes of the SNP with the realities of an independent Scotland but in the end they would certainly make good. Oil revenue, however slight, could only help.malcolmg said:
Oil is not the be all and end all for Scotland. We would not have to pay for the obscene borrowing of UK etc and could easily borrow a la UK and change the business model. Not paying for lots of the UK vanity would make a huge dent in any deficit. Lots and lots of small countries without any oil do very well, no reason why Scotland could not do the same.0 -
More charity excess harming themselves
'Daffodil Day boycotted over high Cancer Society salaries'. Sad but not unexpected. https://t.co/kCZdOI7dqs0 -
If he chooses leave. Boris will have to work hard not to look like the leader of the opposition. He will be asked about every issue, especially Osborne's upcoming budget.0
-
Hi Alan, some crazy decision making , especially in our area that is doing very very well.Alanbrooke said:
malcmalcolmg said:
Your village is looking for their Little Englander idiot. As if we did not have enough raving loons on here , another halfwit who could not point to Scotland on a map turnsupJohn_N said:The idea that England might force Scotland out of the EU and then there might have to be another indyref is rubbish. How many in the SNP leadership have adopted the position that if Scotland should be "independent", then it should be "independent" of Brussels as well as "independent" of London, and therefore Brexit is the way to go? You'd have thought at least a few of them would take that line and claim it as theirs to make a mark, even if one can understand that both Brexit and Bremain push the British brand and restrict the overall scope for getting their kilts out. "Scotland in Europe" has long been a sort of over-compensation for Scot nats being thought of as the little Scotlanders that they actually are. It's like having a car sticker saying "Ecosse". "We're not inward-looking! Oh no! Absolutely not! We're nothing of the kind!"
Meanwhile in Northern Ireland, fear is being spread that Brexit might mean a return of border checks. In Kent, the bogeyman is a move of the jungle from Calais to Folkestone.
Latest news: the price of Leave has risen some more at the Betfair exchange. The Bogo effect!
got your note, and yes it's exactly the same down here.0 -
Owen Jones
I also have a Bronze Swimming Certificate, does that count for nothing?0 -
How can it be good for national security for a minister in the government of one country to negotiate with a foreign country and at the same time be a citizen of that foreign country?NorfolkTilIDie said:
That seems like a ridiculous reason to reject someone.John_N said:
Boris Johnson is a Yank too, the genuine item - a US-passport-carrying burgermunching Merkin.LadyBucket said:As a conservative member, I would never vote for Boris Johnson for reasons too numerous to mention.
I seem to remember he is very pro-immigration, also didn't he want an amnesty for all illegal immigrants at one stage?
Whenever he goes to the US, he must enter on his US passport. He'd be breaking US law if he entered on his "Briddish" one.
I'm not sure. The Torygraph said last year that he was still a US citizen at that time, but that he "is to renounce US citizenship". The BBC said today that he held US citizenship until 2006.ThreeQuidder said:Plus didn't he renounce his US citizenship a couple of years ago?
0 -
Meanwhile Trump can just sit back and wish every success to both Rubio and Cruz in executing point one of their battle plans.Speedy said:
Cruz won't drop out, he has the pastors vote and money from the mega-churches and he's the only one who won anything apart from Trump.NorfolkTilIDie said:
Why would Cruz drop out? He could be kingmaker in a brokered convention and needs as many delegates as possible for that. Also, being seen as runner up could help him next time. Hes also certain to win states on Super Tuesday. Will Rubio??Speedy said:
Cruz voters second choicesTheWhiteRabbit said:
Nevertheless it is a feature of the last two months of Trump that he has been able to push from 30-35% to 40-45% as one might expect. He'll have another opportunity soon, but he's got to do it at least when Cruz drops out.Speedy said:A more detailed picture of the "winnowing' theory:
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks
Second choices of all voters:
Rubio 18
Cruz 17
Trump 12
Carson 12
Kasich 9
Bush 9
D/K 15
Bush second choices
Rubio 19
Kasich 16
Cruz 12
Trump 11
Carson 9
D/K 23
Kasich second choices
Rubio 24
Bush 21
Trump 16
Cruz 10
Carson 6
D/K 12
Carson second choices
Cruz 24
Trump 22
Rubio 16
Kasich 7
Bush 6
D/K 17
So the differences is not large enough to have an impact, we are talking single digit differences among single digit groups.
If Cruz drops after super Tuesday, 60/40 Rubio/Trump would see Rubio home thereafter.
Rubio 33
Trump 26
Carson 17
Bush 7
Kasich 3
D/K 9
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks
Not enough for Rubio to close the gap in the very unlikely event that Cruz drops out.
The Cruz battle plan is very similar to Rubio's:
1. Get rid of Rubio/Cruz.
2. Get rid of Carson/Kasich.
3. Win Texas/Florida.
4. Automatically beat Trump when down to one on one.
Their priority is getting each other out of the way before everything else, Trump is no.4 on their list.0 -
Oh god the round Robin letters have started...sky reporting they have a leak from big business leaders....0
-
Both Cameron and Varoufakis share the same sentimental attachment to the EU that allows the EU to dictate terms to them.Cyclefree said:
It's not just the lack of protection. It's that the current deal is, arguably, worse than the status quo. It takes special skills to end up in a worse position after negotiations designed to improve Britain's position.Richard_Tyndall said:
I think both Boris and Zac coming out for LEAVE - if indeed that is confirmed - says a lot about the lack of protection for the City that Cameron has delivered in the agreement. They both know how important the City is to London and the economy of the country and I think their failure to back the deal shows that ours fears from the reading of the text are justified.Plato_Says said:If Boris helps Leave win, he'll get my thanks - but no endorsement.
I'd give mine to Gove - and never thought I'd say that as he's so marmite. His statement really clinched it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
. I am open to the debates and if honest heart is leave head is remainMarqueeMark said:
Let's see if it stays at 35% when he flails around on the detail - as he did on Marr today....Big_G_NorthWales said:
35% thought he had done well 30% not. He has gained some brownie pointsLuckyguy1983 said:
What is left is GOTV, which I can only hope favours Leave.MarqueeMark said:
As rcs1000 says below, it's a zero sum game. But the Prime Minister looks to have very few motivational issues to win over a generally skeptical population, who have looked at his glowing words on the deal he has brought back and are going "yeah, sure, right mate...." The great virtues of the EU are passing Joe Voter by. If Project Fear is a zero sum game - what is left?kle4 said:
,MarqueeMark said:"Staying in the EU will make the UK more vulnerable to Paris-style terrorist attacks, Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith has told the BBC." So shove that up your jumper, Prime Minister.
My gut feeling says more will believe IDS on this issue than Cameron. It's all about borders, innit?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35624409
Who the fuck did Cameron have advising him? Varoufakis?
They even share the same delusion:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/10/yanis-varoufakis-launches-pan-european-leftwing-movement-diem25
The idea that you can reform the EU by being even more accommodating to it.
"Greece’s former finance minister says umbrella group will ‘shake Europe – gently, compassionately, but firmly’ "0 -
To those members of the media who read this blog - when referring to the PRIME MINISTER, PLEASE STOP CALLING HIM JUST BY HIS SURNAME. IT IS EITHER THE PRIME MINISTER, OR DAVID CAMERON. THIS IS THE "GREAT OFFICE OF STATE" AND SHOULD BE RESPECTED AS SUCH, WHICH INCLUDES THE PERSON WHO HOLDS THE OFFICE.
SHOW SOME BLOODY MANNERS.0 -
Boris live on Sky now0
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from memory the same chap asked us to call him "Dave"LadyBucket said:To those members of the media who read this blog - when referring to the PRIME MINISTER, PLEASE STOP CALLING HIM JUST BY HIS SURNAME. IT IS EITHER THE PRIME MINISTER, OR DAVID CAMERON. THIS IS THE "GREAT OFFICE OF STATE" AND SHOULD BE RESPECTED AS SUCH, WHICH INCLUDES THE PERSON WHO HOLDS THE OFFICE.
SHOW SOME BLOODY MANNERS.
he set his own yardstick.0 -
Its a bizarre article. Says outright that non discrimination was status quo, that the UK got more and more roped into banking union with every iteration, and that Eurozone can still railroad new financial laws over City... yet calls this a victory for Cameron.Richard_Tyndall said:
LOL. I thought is was the FT. The point still remains as far as protection of the City goes though. There is none. Indeed as Miss Cyclefree has pointed out it is actually worse than if we had had no deal at all.ThreeQuidder said:
An interesting view of the Telegraph.Richard_Tyndall said:
Er no. I am afraid you have been taken in by a paper that would support the EU even if it was massacring the first born.perdix said:
Great protection for the City as reported in the DT....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12164954/EU-deal-How-David-Cameron-took-on-the-eurozone-and-won.html0 -
Boris comes out0
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Its a bizarre article.
It's complete cr*p0 -
He's a politician, not royalty.LadyBucket said:To those members of the media who read this blog - when referring to the PRIME MINISTER, PLEASE STOP CALLING HIM JUST BY HIS SURNAME. IT IS EITHER THE PRIME MINISTER, OR DAVID CAMERON. THIS IS THE "GREAT OFFICE OF STATE" AND SHOULD BE RESPECTED AS SUCH, WHICH INCLUDES THE PERSON WHO HOLDS THE OFFICE.
SHOW SOME BLOODY MANNERS.
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If we don't get Dave v Boris I'll be very annoyed.0
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James Purnell is the Director of Strategy and Digital at the BBC.Fenster said:
Fair point. Tolerated dissension ended well for Purnell.Yorkcity said:
Says more about you than Labour.Fenster said:It's refreshing to see top ranking politicians showing some principle and giving oxygen to proper debate. Cameron and this Tory government have been far more tolerant of dissenting voices than the previous Labour government.
Could you imagine Gordon Brown's cabinet ministers publicly expressing an alternative argument? Even if one of them had privately desired to nuke Bavaria they would've fallen into line, such was their puny, petrified sycophancy.
James Purnell and Alistair Darling to name two were hardly sychophants to Brown.
Where's he now? Head of Television at BBC3?
Anyway, you at least have a broader spectrum of political philosophies under Corbyn's leadership, all the way from socialism on the hard left to communism on the extreme left.
Enjoy your 24% at the GE, whilst the Tories do what the feck they like.
Hardly my 24% I did not vote for Corbyn.
Why do you give one you would never vote anything but Conservative anyways .
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Quite so. Cameron works for us. Not the other way round.NorfolkTilIDie said:
He's a politician, not royalty.LadyBucket said:To those members of the media who read this blog - when referring to the PRIME MINISTER, PLEASE STOP CALLING HIM JUST BY HIS SURNAME. IT IS EITHER THE PRIME MINISTER, OR DAVID CAMERON. THIS IS THE "GREAT OFFICE OF STATE" AND SHOULD BE RESPECTED AS SUCH, WHICH INCLUDES THE PERSON WHO HOLDS THE OFFICE.
SHOW SOME BLOODY MANNERS.0 -
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The only chance in our lifetime....0
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He's still saying that he wants us to stay in a reformed EU. Not sure I like that attitude.0
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Vote for Boris to beat the weedy DaveTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Boris lapping up the attention...0
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He's brushed his hair - this obviously means he's serious...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Better off Out? Better off Free.0
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Lets overreact, all the media together now:TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/CARSON4POTUS/status/7000626533229527040 -
He is pro cake & pro eating it...I guess he is trying to argue to people that a no doesn't have to mean total isolation which is what a lot of people worry about.tlg86 said:He's still saying that he wants us to stay in a reformed EU. Not sure I like that attitude.
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They've had their chance. He said the PM must stay on after the referendum whatever happens, but Boris's position logically says that he doesn't think the PM has done a very good job.malcolmg said:
He is holding out an olive branch to the EUtlg86 said:He's still saying that he wants us to stay in a reformed EU. Not sure I like that attitude.
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He is the backstop to ensure the succession. If Dave and George have miscalculated and get a good rogering from the public in June, Boris and Gove pick up the baton. Cameroons on both sides, the legacy is secure. If they got it right, Boris and Gove back in the cabinet anyway to pacify the Leavers.tlg86 said:He's still saying that he wants us to stay in a reformed EU. Not sure I like that attitude.
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No. :-)LadyBucket said:To those members of the media who read this blog - when referring to the PRIME MINISTER, PLEASE STOP CALLING HIM JUST BY HIS SURNAME. IT IS EITHER THE PRIME MINISTER, OR DAVID CAMERON. THIS IS THE "GREAT OFFICE OF STATE" AND SHOULD BE RESPECTED AS SUCH, WHICH INCLUDES THE PERSON WHO HOLDS THE OFFICE.
SHOW SOME BLOODY MANNERS.-1
