Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

SimonStClare said:

Danny565 said:

Plato_Says said:

Interesting

Sirish Kulkami
@skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.

I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).

PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.

Around 65% voted in the 1975 EEC referendum and turnout should easily match that, this is likely to be a far closer and far more passionate campaign!

That was 65% in a decade when GEs attracted 72-78% turnout. Somewhere in the 50%s looks more reasonable today.

SimonStClare said:

HYUFD said:

SimonStClare said:

Danny565 said:

Plato_Says said:

Interesting

Sirish Kulkami
@skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.

I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).

PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.

Around 65% voted in the 1975 EEC referendum and turnout should easily match that, this is likely to be a far closer and far more passionate campaign!

That's quite an asumption - in 1974, 78.8% turned out for the general election. 2015, 66.1%.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)

I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.

I'm signed up to do deliveries for REMAIN. I'll do canvassing and GOTV as well.

I have signed up for Britain Stronger in Europe today and will likely at least do some leafletting

BSE? you must be mad

(I'll get my coat...)

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

As an aside, how many PBers will be out campaigning and canvassing during the referendum (and for which side?)

I will be most unlikely to be campaigning/canvassing during the referendum. I love campaigning but, I don't think I'll have the time or energy this time.

I'm signed up to do deliveries for REMAIN. I'll do canvassing and GOTV as well.

I have signed up for Britain Stronger in Europe today and will likely at least do some leafletting

BSE? you must be mad

(I'll get my coat...)

Danny565 said:

HYUFD said:

SimonStClare said:

Danny565 said:

Plato_Says said:

Interesting

Sirish Kulkami
@skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.

I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).

PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.

Around 65% voted in the 1975 EEC referendum and turnout should easily match that, this is likely to be a far closer and far more passionate campaign!

Turnouts generally have fallen heavily since the EEC referendum.

General election turnout in the 15 years before that Referendum was about 76%, so 11% higher than the EEC turnout. Meanwhile, turnout 2001-2016 in general elections has been 63%, which if the same pattern is repeated indicates a 52% turnout for this referendum.

HYUFD said:

SimonStClare said:

HYUFD said:

SimonStClare said:

Danny565 said:

Plato_Says said:

Interesting

Sirish Kulkami
@skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.

I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).

PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.

Around 65% voted in the 1975 EEC referendum and turnout should easily match that, this is likely to be a far closer and far more passionate campaign!

That's quite an asumption - in 1974, 78.8% turned out for the general election. 2015, 66.1%.

Yes but 1975 was a foregone conclusion, this year EU ref will go to the wire, every vote counts! It will also be a far more passionate and aggressive campaign

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

richardDodd said:

If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...

More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace Osborne

GOWNBPM

if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.

If Remain wins Osborne will succeed Cameron with Javid as Chancellor

If remain wins Dave stays on until 2019.

Tories look at Osborne and then say he's fking unelectable and choose someone else.

They are not going to choose Gove or IDS

I've 13 years by 2020.

In opposition the Tories pick an unknown, in office the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary and Osborne will not willingly give up the leadership to Liam Fox, Chris Grayling or Priti Patel and certainly not if it is Remain

yeah the thing is it's not a monarchy, it's not his decision in isolation

He will be Brownite in his ruthlessness to ensure he has very little competition, if it is Leave Osborne of course has no chance, if it is Remain he will be the most likely successor though the closer the result the more ruthless he will have to be

YossariansChild said:

Note about entrance polls from Nate Silver:

"entrance polls aren’t really even intended to make projections of the outcome. In Iowa, the early entrance polls incorrectly showed Donald Trump ahead of Ted Cruz, and Hillary Clinton well ahead of Bernie Sanders when in fact they wound up almost tied."

This though is interesting non-white voters are only going for Clinton by a 52 percent to 47 percent margin. If that's true and that holds Clinton is in serious trouble going forward.

david_herdson said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

The CNN entrance poll for Nevada has it Hillary 52 Sanders 48.

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/NV/Dem

Thanks Speedy!

Nate Silver has just tweeted:

Be really careful with those early entrance polls. Not intended for making projections. Weren't accurate in Iowa.

So I'd be cautious about using the entrance polls as if they were exit polls given the tightness of the race.

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

SimonStClare said:

Danny565 said:

Plato_Says said:

Interesting

Sirish Kulkami
@skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.

I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).

PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.

Around 65% voted in the 1975 EEC referendum and turnout should easily match that, this is likely to be a far closer and far more passionate campaign!

That was 65% in a decade when GEs attracted 72-78% turnout. Somewhere in the 50%s looks more reasonable today.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Indigo said:

Speedy said:

Plato_Says said:

LabourLeave
Jeremy has stopped funding LabourInforBritain campaign- I think that gives us a wee hint of his real view! https://t.co/IQdtmunePH

Corbyn is forced to make a statement supporting Remain because that's what his party opponents want to, and he can afford to cede ground to them on a subject of lesser importance for him.
However it doesn't mean he will actively aid Remain, as the above proves.

Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.

Frankly I am getting bored with EU Ref, the chances of us being in the EU in 5 years time are pretty small anyway irrespective of the referendum. Its not like the EU isn't going to either implode or federalise to the extent that we are forced to leave anyway shortly, probably before 2020, and all that bullshit informing the voters will have been wasted.

Its all very well Tory Party members talking about healing the wounds, all pulling together and so forth but quite a lot of wavering voters are not going to buy it, they believed Dave when he said he was going to reform the EU, they thought he was a stand-up guy. Now they think they have been taken for fools.

Only in the Westminster bubble. The ordinary voter is not into the politics of this. They will vote on how they perceive the safety of their jobs and the wider security of the UK

The only recent comment I've heard from someone not a political wonk on this topic is a) the negotiation was all a pantomime and b) they were sick of the EU acting like it's a country. At least one of which is a standard westminster bubble opinion, so sometimes these things are reflected in normal people.

Oh, anecdote alert I guess.

I am sure you are right in some instances but for leave to gain traction they need to have a narrative of how trade would work outside the EU, how they can stop free movement of labour, and how long trade deals would take to supercede existing EU deals. It also occurred to me today how would we get over the E111 Europe wide health scheme if we had to deal with each country. Many genuine questions needing genuine and honest answers. The IFS seems to be well respected on economic matters and any imput they could make could be very valuable

stodge said:

Indigo said:

Labour showing why they are the party of opposition. Handed a golden opportunity to terminally damage Cameron, and with a clever campaign, the Tories in the eyes of the voters, they swerve it an decide to side with their first love, the corporatist racket of Brussels. Funny old world.

Corbyn might believe the people he represents - trade unions, public sector workers and the like - enjoy better legal protection through membership of the EU than they would being left at the tender mercies of a majority Conservative Government which basically wants to sack them and sell them into slavery (or perhaps the other way round).

The most compelling argument for REMAIN I've heard today was from a mother whose son had a rare disease which couldn't be treated in the UK but the expertise to treat it existed in France. As a citizen of the EU, the son got the treatment he needed in France free, survived and has become a healthy adult.

That's not a reason to change your vote - the E111 arrangements could be replicated on a bi-lateral basis assuming the other EU countries were willing.

At the moment, both sides are busy finding their baselines and it will be baseline tennis for the next few weeks as each plays its strongest cards ad infinitum.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

david_herdson said:

rcs1000 said:

Speedy said:

The CNN entrance poll for Nevada has it Hillary 52 Sanders 48.

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/NV/Dem

Thanks Speedy!

Nate Silver has just tweeted:

Be really careful with those early entrance polls. Not intended for making projections. Weren't accurate in Iowa.

So I'd be cautious about using the entrance polls as if they were exit polls given the tightness of the race.

I have an utterly fantastic betting position of:

Clinton +1; Sanders -25

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

SimonStClare said:

Danny565 said:

Plato_Says said:

Interesting

Sirish Kulkami
@skynewsniall Produced a "people" piece for BBC. Without exception folk said didn't understand enough about it. Maybe 10% said they'd vote.

I think turnout might be able to scrape 50%, but it's clear that the public don't share the commentariat's view that this is an era-defining massive event (to steal a joke from Antifrank, they're just not that into EU).

PB.Com nerds forget that the average Joe treats politics like Morris Dancing - best avoided.

Around 65% voted in the 1975 EEC referendum and turnout should easily match that, this is likely to be a far closer and far more passionate campaign!

That was 65% in a decade when GEs attracted 72-78% turnout. Somewhere in the 50%s looks more reasonable today.

Turnout was 66% at the general election last year so not that far off and most polls show most people will vote, once the campaign starts there will be no getting away from it, on the news, in shopping centres, through leaflet deliveries etc It may not reach the heights of indyref turnout but a majority will turn out

well we'll see, I'd still say Europe bores the tits of most voters and since election isn't doubled up with locals or regionals turnout will be on the low side.

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

richardDodd said:

If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...

More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace Osborne

GOWNBPM

if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.

If Remain wins Osborne will succeed Cameron with Javid as Chancellor

If remain wins Dave stays on until 2019.

Tories look at Osborne and then say he's fking unelectable and choose someone else.

They are not going to choose Gove or IDS

I've not for one moment suggested they will.

They will in all likelihood do what they have done before and chose an unknown rather than the front runners.

Furthermore since the Cameroons have now held the reins since 2007, they are more likely imo to decide on a changing of the guard. It will be 13 years by 2020.

In opposition the Tories pick an unknown, in office the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary and Osborne will not willingly give up the leadership to Liam Fox, Chris Grayling or Priti Patel and certainly not if it is Remain

yeah the thing is it's not a monarchy, it's not his decision in isolation

Have you not read the world according to HYUFD? Past experience is how to predict future performance.

That is why Burnham won.

Oh, wait...

I never once said Burnham would win the Labour leadership, I said he would be the best candidate for the general election, which he still probably would have been

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

Mortimer said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

richardDodd said:

If the Tories split then we get Corbyn in 2020...

More likely Remain win narrowly, Osborne becomes PM and loses his majority in 2020 and relies on the DUP and UKIP to stay in power as a minority government then Chuka Umunna wins the 2025 election comfortably and the Tories pick a rightwinger to replace Osborne

GOWNBPM

if Dave goes Osborne goes with him his power of patronage is gone.

If Remain wins Osborne will succeed Cameron with Javid as Chancellor

If remain wins Dave stays on until 2019.

Tories look at Osborne and then say he's fking unelectable and choose someone else.

They are not going to choose Gove or IDS

I've not for one moment suggested they will.

They will in all likelihood do what they have done before and chose an unknown rather than the front runners.

Furthermore since the Cameroons have now held the reins since 2007, they are more likely imo to decide on a changing of the guard. It will be 13 years by 2020.

In opposition the Tories pick an unknown, in office the Chancellor or Foreign Secretary and Osborne will not willingly give up the leadership to Liam Fox, Chris Grayling or Priti Patel and certainly not if it is Remain

yeah the thing is it's not a monarchy, it's not his decision in isolation

Have you not read the world according to HYUFD? Past experience is how to predict future performance.

That is why Burnham won.

Oh, wait...

I never once said Burnham would win the Labour leadership, I said he would be the best candidate for the general election, which he still probably would have been

It was fun to see this sort of back tracking when it became obvious he was being trounced because of basic political ineptitude.