Oban North and Lorn (Argyll First defence, was Independent) on Argyll and Bute
Result: Scottish National Party 1,113 (42% +11%), Conservative 609 (23% +14%), Independent 608 (23% -32%), Green Party 300 (11%, no candidate last time)
Scottish National Party GAIN from Argyll First on the fourth count with a lead of 504 (19%) on a swing of 1.5% from Scottish National Party to Conservative
Comments
Corbyn surge in the wrong places. Not much use gathering more votes in Manchester, particularly when wannabee Manchester Mayor Ivan Lewis thinks that it has poor public services. Must be the fault of all those 96 Labourites on Manchester City Council.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/02/19/cruz_looks_to_replicate_iowa_ground_game_in_south_carolina_129723.html
One has to be cautious about claims of superior ground-game, but I think this one rings true, given the experience in Iowa.
Let's hope so !
* 2nd behind the Donald though, ta.
God knows how many words I've written on the site over the years. Several million, I should think.
We are in a quasi Presidential system and the perceptions around Corbyn are disastrous for Labour
Meanwhile the Leave side (and posters on here, who should know better) have been caught trashing the deal before it's even been concluded.
Well, well. Who'd a thunk it?
So what? These are not meant to be objective statements (if you want those, read my posts!). They are the equivalent of political pamphlets.
Trashing the deal beforehand - even though if he gets all he wanted it would still be a poor offering - bad?
mhhhhhhh
Now I know he's not to everyone's tastes, but can't we send Donald J Trump into bat as a substitute for us in the Euro negotiations ?
Guys and gals, you are getting over-excited. One side makes claims. The other side makes the opposite claims. Both are largely bollocks. You have to look at the underlying situation from two points of view:
- Message
- Substance
Leaving aside the substance, the mistake being widely made here is to think that the messages are aimed at the politically engaged, or the already-convinced on either side. They are not. In this case, not a single target voter will notice that the statement has been choreographed in advance, and they wouldn't care if they did notice.
http://order-order.com/2016/02/19/friday-caption-contest-eu-puppet-edition/
Announcing before the negotiations have even started that you are going to accept a deal is not a strategy that is likely to bring the best result.
I have put forward suggestions for what I would like to see and for why I think what appears to be the case seems to me not to be in our interests. Let's see what ultimately happens.
But you have not been exactly Trappist yourself.
But he has helped them so much.
Hopeless negotiating strategy and tactics at every single step.
We can expect Isil or other terrorist groups to stage an attack in Europe, warns Rob Wainwright, the British head of Europol, the EU’s police agency
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/12165093/Up-to-5000-Isil-trained-jihadists-could-be-at-large-in-Europe.html
That is the message.
It's a nightmare of our own creation, something could have been done about it without extreme action if Enoch had been listened to, but I agree nothing can be done about it without extreme action now.
It's a classic case of someone with foresight vs an after timer.. unfortunately, sometimes the after timers get to tell the story
Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for this.
The budget will likely have more impact on any referendum than anything coming out of Brussels. Cameron could just as easily lose this if Osborne screws over everyone's pensions and the middle classes decide to take their revenge.
How much better would a vote Leave panel be with you, Robert Smithson, Charles, and DavidL?
If you were short-handed, I'd be happy to join you.
If you wanted to juice things up a bit you could call SeanT and Marquee Mark onto the stage for a turn.
Incidentally, cheers to Mr. F and Mr. Wanderer on the previous thread for their Tacitus comments. It sounds either like it was a bad translation or I was a bit off-colour when reading it.
This is what is so potentially damaging to Cameron and Remain from this process. If the impression sets in that they are using the power of government to be manipulative at best and outright lying at worst, then it will hugely damage their position in a way that is not easily reversed as it will have changed emotional and values-based beliefs (not knowledge) about Cameron and Remainers.
I used to have to knock on doors of people who had no idea who my company were, trying to get a foot in the door when our tech guys saw an exploration opportunity they liked. I was renowned for my "Irish Mafia Routine" - make them an offer they can't understand. As soon as you've got them going "Eh???" you've got them intrigued.
Cameron is supposedly very clever but I doubt he would last two months in a senior position in any serious company.
That remains my view on the draft. Of course I have no opinion on the as-yet non-existant final text, if there is one.
To be quite frank, apart from yourself and a very few others, I seem to be almost alone in actually making up my own mind, as objectively as possible, based on the facts. Of course I might be wrong on the Eurozone protection - it's a complex area. At least I admit that I might be wrong. I haven't noticed a single naysayer doing so.
It's the laughably bad "deal" and hopelessly inept negotiating strategy from the PM that's embarrassing.
218 and counting - barely a mention of UKIP, just lots of very irked readers saying Time To Leave/Who The Eff Do You Think You Are in 200 different ways.
I wonder what other PBers' favorite books are. I would have a very hard time choosing, but Candide must be right up there.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/02/ted-cruz-eligibility-case-heads-to-court.html?
" CNN reports that an Illinois judge has agreed to hear arguments in a lawsuit challenging Cruz's eligibility on Friday."
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6942504/Parish-councillor-stockpiled-500-weapons-including-anti-tank-missiles-uzis-and-assault-rifles.html?CMP=spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-TheSunNewspaper-_-20160219-_-News-_-371427047-_-Imageandlink
There's no other possible way of doing this sort of complex international negotiation.
We have people falling over themselves to look stupid on here.
I'm sure if the question asked by the BBC had been, 'do you hate murdering child molesting Muslims?' Then the answer would have been a unanimous 'Yes'
This perhaps explains why the rabid Leavers want to associate this question with the EU.
I would be significantly surprised if Cameron walked away and recommended we Leave. I think he'd prefer a delay to give Remain a better chance of winning, if no deal could be struck.
Cameron's leading the country into the position Byzantium suffered when it became the site of a proxy trade war between Genoa and Venice. And it's voluntary.
Biggest turn around in a leader's public esteem since Heraclius, perhaps.