Tidbits from Paris. Just off to meet with the farmers
- French Ambassador and Gus O'Donnell had a conversation about 2 weeks ago in a message was passed to G.O.D. (Presumably to be passed to Cameron). Post Brexit, the EU intends to make an unconditional offer to Scotland to join the EU on the same terms (+the Euro) as the UK currently has. This *may* explain Cameron's sudden panic
- My Paris contact (extremely close to people who know Cameron very well) says that he is a dipshit. Utterly thick and disconnected from the detail, which is why he gets tripped up so often. I quote precisely
- France is terrified that the UK will leave, and result in them facing Germany alone. The French block (Spain/Portugal/Italy/Gr.....
- Germany sees Brexit as a win/win. If the UK stays they have a net contributor and reliablish ally against France. If the UK leaves Western Europe looks more and more like the 4th Reich. The actual parallel this guy used was 1870...
Wow. That's fascinating.
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
And their conversation was just their gossip and opinion. Hearsay built on hearsay. O'Donnell has been mouthing off ever since he left his job. Before the general election he was making dire predictions about the Union and Scottish independence if the snp did well. He has an axe to grind and a low opinion of mps and pms, any pm.
Just to be clear, the only part of my post attributed to the Ambassdaor/G.O.D. Was the Scottish point. Everything else was separate.
You don't have to believe me. I think the conversation happened, my source thougt it was a real conversation, not speculation. The Ambassador would have known a comment like that would have been reported back to the authorities. It feels like a back channel.
That's an excellent article by Toby Young on Brexit and the likes of Emma Thompson. Bang on the money, IMHO.
It is a jolly good piece, but I'm faintly skeptical of Toby Young's description of himself as some average, blue collar, comp-educated common man. Practically a navvy.
He's the Honourable Toby Young, son of Lord Young, educated at Oxford and close friend of the Cameron set. He wears a signet ring.
There is that. I went to private school myself, albeit a state sixth form for a-levels.
Nevertheless, his point stands. The sneering attitude of the most privileged in our society is there and it oozes snobbery, and views the WWC as beneath contempt.
The only difference I can see between the Labour side of Thornberry and Thompson, and the Conservative side of Morgan and Soubry, is the economics.
Interesting list from Guido on which MP's are in or out earlier today. On Caroline Nokes' position, which there was a mention this morning, I expect that as she was one of the 80 or so EU referendum rebels that she will come out on the out side. She was being quite coy with me when I last saw her at a constituency surgery, but I think Guido will prove correct on this one.
As others have said, I'd be surprised if there are over 150 Tory MP's signed up to the out campaign when the dust settles.
That's an excellent article by Toby Young on Brexit and the likes of Emma Thompson. Bang on the money, IMHO.
It is a jolly good piece, but I'm faintly skeptical of Toby Young's description of himself as some average, blue collar, comp-educated common man. Practically a navvy.
He's the Honourable Toby Young, son of Lord Young, educated at Oxford and close friend of the Cameron set. He wears a signet ring.
There is that. I went to private school myself, albeit a state sixth form for a-levels.
Nevertheless, his point stands. The sneering attitude of the most privileged in our society is there and it oozes snobbery, and views the WWC as beneath contempt.
The only difference I can see between the Labour side of Thornberry and Thompson, and the Conservative side of Morgan and Soubry, is the economics.
The social attitudes are the same.
Incidentally, this might be at least in part attributable to the professionalisation of politics.
Ironically, the old toff ridden Tory party would not have stood for failing to represent the common man. Country Tories were in contact with their employees, staff etc far more frequently than the new establishment are with the new poor.
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
And their conversation was just their gossip and opinion. Hearsay built on hearsay. O'Donnell has been mouthing off ever since he left his job. Before the general election he was making dire predictions about the Union and Scottish independence if the snp did well. He has an axe to grind and a low opinion of mps and pms, any pm.
Just to be clear, the only part of my post attributed to the Ambassdaor/G.O.D. Was the Scottish point. Everything else was separate.
You don't have to believe me. I think the conversation happened, my source thougt it was a real conversation, not speculation. The Ambassador would have known a comment like that would have been reported back to the authorities. It feels like a back channel.
But dismiss it if you want. I don't care.
Any titbits from dinner with Terry and June?
Haven't seen Terry for about 9 months - but when I did he was still trying to pretend that the Tesco fiasco was nothing to do with him
Didn't he knock over a stack of baked bean cans in their Purley store, whilst chatting to Jerry and Margot?
@britainelects 7m7 minutes ago EU referendum poll Remain: 43% (+2) Leave: 39% (-3) (via ICM / 12 - 14 Feb)
Fux sake.
An interesting question is whether Trump clinching the GOP nomination, amid further anti-politician, anti-immigrant rhetoric, will impact on the EU Ref.
That's quite a significant poll. Shows the drift to LEAVE has stalled.
Relief for HMG. But not relaxation.
It seems to me the ICM poll is just showing random variation at present around a roughly 50/50 point, with perhaps Remain marginally ahead.
Yes, but, importantly, the surge to LEAVE has apparently ended. That must have been unnerving for Cameron: the idea that LEAVE was enjoying a grand emotional upswing - which could have put LEAVE out of sight, before he'd even started the campaign.
What Cameron needs to do now is get the gruesome business of selling this farcical "deal" out of the way, then go all out on Project Panic. The "deal" is now actively hindering the REMAIN campaign. I expect them to quietly forget it over the coming weeks, as much as possible.
That's a lot to deduce from a change within the Margin of Error
And I think if it came down to Hillary against Trump, I think Trump would destroy her in the fall, as he knows well enough where her many weaknesses lie.
@britainelects 7m7 minutes ago EU referendum poll Remain: 43% (+2) Leave: 39% (-3) (via ICM / 12 - 14 Feb)
Fux sake.
Please lets not get into the habit of wildly over reacting to every poll when we are a minimum of 4 months away from the referendum
As I said in the lead up to the GE, it is like celebrating or booing a throw in at a football match
But the booing and cheering is part of the FUN, it's why people go to football matches.
Given that we all have to endure FOUR MONTHS of this campaign, we might as well embrace our nerdiness and relish the spectacle, right down to individual polling shifts.
It's also the first time I've been personally and emotionally invested in a vital national referendum, ever. The AV vote didn't really do it for me, I must confess (and the outcome was entirely predictable). Indyref was dramatic and compelling - yet I didn't have a vote.
But this, this is special. Ludicrous, but special.
Perhaps you should write a psychological thriller about the referendum.
@britainelects 7m7 minutes ago EU referendum poll Remain: 43% (+2) Leave: 39% (-3) (via ICM / 12 - 14 Feb)
Fux sake.
An interesting question is whether Trump clinching the GOP nomination, amid further anti-politician, anti-immigrant rhetoric, will impact on the EU Ref.
It's possible.
It would only take a few comments from him to cause the trailed Obama intervention to backfire utterly.
@britainelects 7m7 minutes ago EU referendum poll Remain: 43% (+2) Leave: 39% (-3) (via ICM / 12 - 14 Feb)
Fux sake.
An interesting question is whether Trump clinching the GOP nomination, amid further anti-politician, anti-immigrant rhetoric, will impact on the EU Ref.
That's quite a significant poll. Shows the drift to LEAVE has stalled.
Relief for HMG. But not relaxation.
It seems to me the ICM poll is just showing random variation at present around a roughly 50/50 point, with perhaps Remain marginally ahead.
Yes, but, importantly, the surge to LEAVE has apparently ended. That must have been unnerving for Cameron: the idea that LEAVE was enjoying a grand emotional upswing - which could have put LEAVE out of sight, before he'd even started the campaign.
What Cameron needs to do now is get the gruesome business of selling this farcical "deal" out of the way, then go all out on Project Panic. The "deal" is now actively hindering the REMAIN campaign. I expect them to quietly forget it over the coming weeks, as much as possible.
That's a lot to deduce from a change within the Margin of Error
But it's two polls. ICM and Ipsos Mori.
OK maybe I am over-reacting! I shall go to Sainsbury's and buy a fine British steak.
Had a tremendous fillet from there the other night - few minutes each side in the pan then finished off in the oven. Almost as good as MASH!
@britainelects 7m7 minutes ago EU referendum poll Remain: 43% (+2) Leave: 39% (-3) (via ICM / 12 - 14 Feb)
Fux sake.
An interesting question is whether Trump clinching the GOP nomination, amid further anti-politician, anti-immigrant rhetoric, will impact on the EU Ref.
It's possible.
Will there be time for that to have an effect?
He's already making an impact in this country. Witness our parliament of PC pygmies debating whether to put him on the naughty step...
The bottom 3 that are most likely to drop out have 14% all together, Trump's lead is 15%.
GE Match-ups
Hillary 43 -5 Trump 45 +1
Hillary 44 -3 Cruz 45 0
Hillary 42 -3 Rubio 48 0
Sanders 43 Trump 44
Sanders 44 Cruz 42
Sanders 42 Rubio 46
There have been polls showing Trump leading Hillary before there will be polls showing him leading her again it will be close. What the poll does confirm is that if Rubio was the GOP nominee the Republicans would almost win after 8 years of a Democrat in the White House, Trump and Cruz offer Clinton and Sanders a chance and both still lead in the RCP poll average against those two while trailing Rubio
That's an excellent article by Toby Young on Brexit and the likes of Emma Thompson. Bang on the money, IMHO.
It is a jolly good piece, but I'm faintly skeptical of Toby Young's description of himself as some average, blue collar, comp-educated common man. Practically a navvy.
He's the Honourable Toby Young, son of Lord Young, educated at Oxford and close friend of the Cameron set. He wears a signet ring.
There is that. I went to private school myself, albeit a state sixth form for a-levels.
Nevertheless, his point stands. The sneering attitude of the most privileged in our society is there and it oozes snobbery, and views the WWC as beneath contempt.
The only difference I can see between the Labour side of Thornberry and Thompson, and the Conservative side of Morgan and Soubry, is the economics.
The social attitudes are the same.
Is this a class thing or an English thing?
Not being English myself I do find the way the English try and place you rather amusing. If you sound and look right they make all sorts of assumptions about you which have little to do with the reality. It is quite fun to mess with them when this attempt to pigeonhole you is a little too obvious.
We all make assumptions about other people based on superficial indicators. It is hard and takes a bit of effort to really see people for what they are and for what they could be. Often outsiders are better at spotting potential precisely because they are outsiders and really look at what they are seeing and, maybe, because it's harder to read the unconscious signs.
Being on the edge of a group is lonely but it does give you a view that others in the middle don't get.
The working class are neither the salt of the earth nor chavs. They're like you or I: people with jobs, hopes, dreams, difficulties, families and friends. All this lumping of people into groups (WWC, BME and all the rest of it) is such lazy condescension.
And I think if it came down to Hillary against Trump, I think Trump would destroy her in the fall, as he knows well enough where her many weaknesses lie.
And I think if it came down to Hillary against Trump, I think Trump would destroy her in the fall, as he knows well enough where her many weaknesses lie.
There is a reason the Clintons are not attacking Trump too much at the moment. The Clinton war machine is digging up dirt on Trump, his business affairs and personal life and often volatile relationships with his former wives it will unleash over the summer in attack ads. Clinton v Trump will be the dirtiest most negative campaign of all time
That's quite a significant poll. Shows the drift to LEAVE has stalled.
Relief for HMG. But not relaxation.
It seems to me the ICM poll is just showing random variation at present around a roughly 50/50 point, with perhaps Remain marginally ahead.
Yes, but, importantly, the surge to LEAVE has apparently ended. That must have been unnerving for Cameron: the idea that LEAVE was enjoying a grand emotional upswing - which could have put LEAVE out of sight, before he'd even started the campaign.
What Cameron needs to do now is get the gruesome business of selling this farcical "deal" out of the way, then go all out on Project Panic. The "deal" is now actively hindering the REMAIN campaign. I expect them to quietly forget it over the coming weeks, as much as possible.
That's a lot to deduce from a change within the Margin of Error
But it's two polls. ICM and Ipsos Mori.
OK maybe I am over-reacting! I shall go to Sainsbury's and buy a fine British steak.
Had a tremendous fillet from there the other night - few minutes each side in the pan then finished off in the oven. Almost as good as MASH!
Drool. Been months since I had a tolerable steak never mind a good one. There are many compensations for living in this part of the world, currently living 50 yards from a tropic reef beach is one of them, but good beef not so much!
@britainelects 7m7 minutes ago EU referendum poll Remain: 43% (+2) Leave: 39% (-3) (via ICM / 12 - 14 Feb)
Fux sake.
An interesting question is whether Trump clinching the GOP nomination, amid further anti-politician, anti-immigrant rhetoric, will impact on the EU Ref.
It's possible.
Will there be time for that to have an effect?
He's already making an impact in this country. Witness our parliament of PC pygmies debating whether to put him on the naughty step...
Oh, I don't even give that sort of stuff the time of day.
It's impact on the voting public I'm interested in.
I'm not taking much notice of increasingly febrile gosssip. I'm not fussed if we leave the eu and remain in the eea. But there will be massive and even more febrile hysteria as we go down that route.
Mine's not "febrile gossip".
It was a back channel message - a window on the negotiations. Who knows what the purpose of that message was - but it is clear there was a purpose.
Ambassadors don't make comments like that to people like G.O.D. at a time like this unless they have a reason.
That's an excellent article by Toby Young on Brexit and the likes of Emma Thompson. Bang on the money, IMHO.
It is a jolly good piece, but I'm faintly skeptical of Toby Young's description of himself as some average, blue collar, comp-educated common man. Practically a navvy.
He's the Honourable Toby Young, son of Lord Young, educated at Oxford and close friend of the Cameron set. He wears a signet ring.
There is that. I went to private school myself, albeit a state sixth form for a-levels.
Nevertheless, his point stands. The sneering attitude of the most privileged in our society is there and it oozes snobbery, and views the WWC as beneath contempt.
The only difference I can see between the Labour side of Thornberry and Thompson, and the Conservative side of Morgan and Soubry, is the economics.
The social attitudes are the same.
Is this a class thing or an English thing?
Not being English myself I do find the way the English try and place you rather amusing. If you sound and look right they make all sorts of assumptions about you which have little to do with the reality. It is quite fun to mess with them when this attempt to pigeonhole you is a little too obvious.
We all make assumptions about other people based on superficial indicators. It is hard and takes a bit of effort to really see people for what they are and for what they could be. Often outsiders are better at spotting potential precisely because they are outsiders and really look at what they are seeing and, maybe, because it's harder to read the unconscious signs.
Being on the edge of a group is lonely but it does give you a view that others in the middle don't get.
The working class are neither the salt of the earth nor chavs. They're like you or I: people with jobs, hopes, dreams, difficulties, families and friends. All this lumping of people into groups (WWC, BME and all the rest of it) is such lazy condescension.
Yes, it's an English thing. My wife is Bulgarian so, like you, see's everything from the outside. And I see more as a consequence too.
She is asked *all the time* "where are you from?" because having perfect English but a slightly foreign accent is confusing to those used to placing people.
And I think if it came down to Hillary against Trump, I think Trump would destroy her in the fall, as he knows well enough where her many weaknesses lie.
I think Trump could beat Hillary.
The dis-interred remains of Warren G. Harding could beat Clinton.
@britainelects 7m7 minutes ago EU referendum poll Remain: 43% (+2) Leave: 39% (-3) (via ICM / 12 - 14 Feb)
Fux sake.
An interesting question is whether Trump clinching the GOP nomination, amid further anti-politician, anti-immigrant rhetoric, will impact on the EU Ref.
It's possible.
Will there be time for that to have an effect?
He's already making an impact in this country. Witness our parliament of PC pygmies debating whether to put him on the naughty step...
Oh, I don't even give that sort of stuff the time of day.
It's impact on the voting public I'm interested in.
Most people I know follow US POTUS elections reasonably closely.
And I think if it came down to Hillary against Trump, I think Trump would destroy her in the fall, as he knows well enough where her many weaknesses lie.
There is a reason the Clintons are not attacking Trump too much at the moment. The Clinton war machine is digging up dirt on Trump, his business affairs and personal life and often volatile relationships with his former wives it will unleash over the summer in attack ads. Clinton v Trump will be the dirtiest most negative campaign of all time
It is going to be interesting. Their problem is Trump is more or less and American Boris. All sorts of outrageous behaviour and potential skeletons in cupboards are already priced in. The Clinton campaign are going to be dismayed (putting it politely) when they pull out their choicest morsel and dress it up an in prime time attack ad, only for the American public to shrug and say to themselves "Its just Donald being Donald"
That's quite a significant poll. Shows the drift to LEAVE has stalled.
Relief for HMG. But not relaxation.
It seems to me the ICM poll is just showing random variation at present around a roughly 50/50 point, with perhaps Remain marginally ahead.
Yes, but, importantly, the surge to LEAVE has apparently ended. That must have been unnerving for Cameron: the idea that LEAVE was enjoying a grand emotional upswing - which could have put LEAVE out of sight, before he'd even started the campaign.
What Cameron needs to do now is get the gruesome business of selling this farcical "deal" out of the way, then go all out on Project Panic. The "deal" is now actively hindering the REMAIN campaign. I expect them to quietly forget it over the coming weeks, as much as possible.
That's a lot to deduce from a change within the Margin of Error
But it's two polls. ICM and Ipsos Mori.
OK maybe I am over-reacting! I shall go to Sainsbury's and buy a fine British steak.
Had a tremendous fillet from there the other night - few minutes each side in the pan then finished off in the oven. Almost as good as MASH!
Drool. Been months since I had a tolerable steak never mind a good one. There are many compensations for living in this part of the world, currently living 50 yards from a tropic reef beach is one of them, but good beef not so much!
Sainsbury's do a magnificent 28 day aged, marbled Hereford ribeye. I cook it using the Heston Blumenthal method. Quickly fried at maximum heat in top quality olive oil, 15 seconds on one side, then turn it over, and repeat for three and a half minutes. Oh yes. oh yes.
@britainelects 7m7 minutes ago EU referendum poll Remain: 43% (+2) Leave: 39% (-3) (via ICM / 12 - 14 Feb)
Fux sake.
An interesting question is whether Trump clinching the GOP nomination, amid further anti-politician, anti-immigrant rhetoric, will impact on the EU Ref.
It's possible.
Will there be time for that to have an effect?
He's already making an impact in this country. Witness our parliament of PC pygmies debating whether to put him on the naughty step...
Oh, I don't even give that sort of stuff the time of day.
It's impact on the voting public I'm interested in.
Most people I know follow US POTUS elections reasonably closely.
Then most people you know are not representative of the typical voter.
Amazing how quickly Hilary went quiet after this tweet. Roger Stone has a mountain of stuff on Hilary he will unload, she won't be able to shrug it off.
Trump would be problematic for Dave, he would find himself very isolated on foreign policy and his record on immigration etc. will be highlighted.
But what you are excluding is, if we remain in, any attempts by the Eurozone to migrate activities out of London. I see a real risk of permanent damage from being in vs temporary damage with future upside from Leave.
It's far more likely that the Eurozone would want to and would be able to migrate activities out of London if we leave, so that risk is not mitigated by leaving. To the contrary, we have institutional protection from the Treaties plus the renegotiation document; one can debate how strong those protections are, but clearly the protections are zero if we leave. We also have a say in the Single Market decisions if we stay, none if we leave. So the 'real risk' you refer to is an argument for staying in, not leaving.
The argument for Leave would have to be that there is some future upside not attainable by staying in, which outweighs the differential risk of leaving. I'm sceptical about that, but to be fair it's not something which has been very much discussed.
And I think if it came down to Hillary against Trump, I think Trump would destroy her in the fall, as he knows well enough where her many weaknesses lie.
There is a reason the Clintons are not attacking Trump too much at the moment. The Clinton war machine is digging up dirt on Trump, his business affairs and personal life and often volatile relationships with his former wives it will unleash over the summer in attack ads. Clinton v Trump will be the dirtiest most negative campaign of all time
Absolutely - it'll be real fireworks if it comes to it. Hillary's sins play far worse politically with the wider electorate though compared to the allegations against Trump. Repeal of Glass Steagal, making student loans non-dischargeable on her husband's watch, the top secret emails on her private email account, awarding of government contracts to their nearest and dearest, the I'm a person of the people when paying $150,000 rent for a weekend in the Hamptons, and the many sordid details of their private lives........Trump has an endless list of targets with which to besmirch her with!
@britainelects 7m7 minutes ago EU referendum poll Remain: 43% (+2) Leave: 39% (-3) (via ICM / 12 - 14 Feb)
Fux sake.
An interesting question is whether Trump clinching the GOP nomination, amid further anti-politician, anti-immigrant rhetoric, will impact on the EU Ref.
It's possible.
Will there be time for that to have an effect?
He's already making an impact in this country. Witness our parliament of PC pygmies debating whether to put him on the naughty step...
Oh, I don't even give that sort of stuff the time of day.
It's impact on the voting public I'm interested in.
Most people I know follow US POTUS elections reasonably closely.
Then most people you know are not representative of the typical voter.
I beg to differ. Many people here still admire and look up to America, go on holiday there, view them - and their POTUS in particular - as leader of the West, etc.
More than any country apart from our own the outcome of the election is Big News.
And Trump has a knack of grabbing the headlines...
That's quite a significant poll. Shows the drift to LEAVE has stalled.
Relief for HMG. But not relaxation.
It seems to me the ICM poll is just showing random variation at present around a roughly 50/50 point, with perhaps Remain marginally ahead.
Yes, but, importantly, the surge to LEAVE has apparently ended. That must have been unnerving for Cameron: the idea that LEAVE was enjoying a grand emotional upswing - which could have put LEAVE out of sight, before he'd even started the campaign.
What Cameron needs to do now is get the gruesome business of selling this farcical "deal" out of the way, then go all out on Project Panic. The "deal" is now actively hindering the REMAIN campaign. I expect them to quietly forget it over the coming weeks, as much as possible.
That's a lot to deduce from a change within the Margin of Error
But it's two polls. ICM and Ipsos Mori.
OK maybe I am over-reacting! I shall go to Sainsbury's and buy a fine British steak.
Had a tremendous fillet from there the other night - few minutes each side in the pan then finished off in the oven. Almost as good as MASH!
Drool. Been months since I had a tolerable steak never mind a good one. There are many compensations for living in this part of the world, currently living 50 yards from a tropic reef beach is one of them, but good beef not so much!
Sainsbury's do a magnificent 28 day aged, marbled Hereford ribeye. I cook it using the Heston Blumenthal method. Quickly fried at maximum heat in top quality olive oil, 15 seconds on one side, then turn it over, and repeat for three and a half minutes. Oh yes. oh yes.
SEAL IN THE JUICES
*heads for supermarket*
Young Sunil: Got any Quorn?
Young TSE: If you want.
Young Sunil: MEAT? Ugh!
Young TSE: It's what Ian Rush drinks!
Young Sunil: Ian Rush?
Young TSE: Yeah, and he said if I didn't drink lots of MEAT, when I grow up, I wouldn't be good enough to play for Accrington Stanley!
Interesting discussion on here a few days ago about the 7/1 on offer or so about Cameron not being PM at the end of the year. I think that there is value in that bet for a whole host of reasons beside the obvious EU referendum debacle. There's a whole lot of other stuff out there that could easily bring him down by the end of this year from my sources...........
@britainelects 7m7 minutes ago EU referendum poll Remain: 43% (+2) Leave: 39% (-3) (via ICM / 12 - 14 Feb)
Fux sake.
An interesting question is whether Trump clinching the GOP nomination, amid further anti-politician, anti-immigrant rhetoric, will impact on the EU Ref.
It's possible.
Will there be time for that to have an effect?
He's already making an impact in this country. Witness our parliament of PC pygmies debating whether to put him on the naughty step...
Oh, I don't even give that sort of stuff the time of day.
It's impact on the voting public I'm interested in.
Most people I know follow US POTUS elections reasonably closely.
Then most people you know are not representative of the typical voter.
@britainelects 7m7 minutes ago EU referendum poll Remain: 43% (+2) Leave: 39% (-3) (via ICM / 12 - 14 Feb)
Fux sake.
An interesting question is whether Trump clinching the GOP nomination, amid further anti-politician, anti-immigrant rhetoric, will impact on the EU Ref.
It's possible.
Will there be time for that to have an effect?
He's already making an impact in this country. Witness our parliament of PC pygmies debating whether to put him on the naughty step...
Oh, I don't even give that sort of stuff the time of day.
It's impact on the voting public I'm interested in.
Most people I know follow US POTUS elections reasonably closely.
Then most people you know are not representative of the typical voter.
They certainly follow them closer than any other foreign election
Interesting discussion on here a few days ago about the 7/1 on offer or so about Cameron not being PM at the end of the year. I think that there is value in that bet for a whole host of reasons beside the obvious EU referendum debacle. There's a whole lot of other stuff out there that could easily bring him down by the end of this year from my sources...........
Really? Stuff could bring him down that hasn't brought him down in over a decade of being party leader, over half a decade as Prime Minister and two bitter general elections or a vindictive revenge book?
And I think if it came down to Hillary against Trump, I think Trump would destroy her in the fall, as he knows well enough where her many weaknesses lie.
There is a reason the Clintons are not attacking Trump too much at the moment. The Clinton war machine is digging up dirt on Trump, his business affairs and personal life and often volatile relationships with his former wives it will unleash over the summer in attack ads. Clinton v Trump will be the dirtiest most negative campaign of all time
Absolutely - it'll be real fireworks if it comes to it. Hillary's sins play far worse politically with the wider electorate though compared to the allegations against Trump. Repeal of Glass Steagal, making student loans non-dischargeable on her husband's watch, the top secret emails on her private email account, awarding of government contracts to their nearest and dearest, the I'm a person of the people when paying $150,000 rent for a weekend in the Hamptons, and the many sordid details of their private lives........Trump has an endless list of targets with which to besmirch her with!
That is already in the public domain. Trump's connections to jailed businessmen, his alleged wife beating, his evictions in Scotland etc are not and the Clintons will make sure every swing voter knows about them
The way things are working out in the POTUS market it's Trump v Clinton making the 4-6 Democrat still value in the winners market.Bernie's vote will transfer to Hilary's but it's the demographics of the US which means GOP is running with its hands behind its back.The White Supremacist,KKK,approach will only take you so far as well insulting,women,disabled people and any "other" to "other". the 4-5 was better,the 4-6 is still good.
A large chunk of Sanders vote won't vote at all rather than vote for Clinton. Assuming it will all roll over could be a costly betting mistake.
If SCOTUS nomination is still live then the vote will transfer.
And I think if it came down to Hillary against Trump, I think Trump would destroy her in the fall, as he knows well enough where her many weaknesses lie.
There is a reason the Clintons are not attacking Trump too much at the moment. The Clinton war machine is digging up dirt on Trump, his business affairs and personal life and often volatile relationships with his former wives it will unleash over the summer in attack ads. Clinton v Trump will be the dirtiest most negative campaign of all time
Absolutely - it'll be real fireworks if it comes to it. Hillary's sins play far worse politically with the wider electorate though compared to the allegations against Trump. Repeal of Glass Steagal, making student loans non-dischargeable on her husband's watch, the top secret emails on her private email account, awarding of government contracts to their nearest and dearest, the I'm a person of the people when paying $150,000 rent for a weekend in the Hamptons, and the many sordid details of their private lives........Trump has an endless list of targets with which to besmirch her with!
That is already in the public domain. Trump's connections to jailed businessmen, his alleged wife beating, his evictions in Scotland etc are not and the Clintons will make sure every swing voter knows about them
He eats his wives?! Crikey.....
Aha: I see you've edited it. Phew. Well not really. Beating wives not on.
And I think if it came down to Hillary against Trump, I think Trump would destroy her in the fall, as he knows well enough where her many weaknesses lie.
There is a reason the Clintons are not attacking Trump too much at the moment. The Clinton war machine is digging up dirt on Trump, his business affairs and personal life and often volatile relationships with his former wives it will unleash over the summer in attack ads. Clinton v Trump will be the dirtiest most negative campaign of all time
Absolutely - it'll be real fireworks if it comes to it. Hillary's sins play far worse politically with the wider electorate though compared to the allegations against Trump. Repeal of Glass Steagal, making student loans non-dischargeable on her husband's watch, the top secret emails on her private email account, awarding of government contracts to their nearest and dearest, the I'm a person of the people when paying $150,000 rent for a weekend in the Hamptons, and the many sordid details of their private lives........Trump has an endless list of targets with which to besmirch her with!
That is already in the public domain. Trump's connections to jailed businessmen, his alleged wife beating, his evictions in Scotland etc are not and the Clintons will make sure every swing voter knows about them
Her endorsement matters so much in S.Carolina that Mitt Romney lost by a landslide to Newt Gingrich in 2012.
What it will do is put a big sign on Marco Rubio's back saying "hit me" to the other candidates, while not offering nothing else but a marginal 1-2% boost to him.
Interesting discussion on here a few days ago about the 7/1 on offer or so about Cameron not being PM at the end of the year. I think that there is value in that bet for a whole host of reasons beside the obvious EU referendum debacle. There's a whole lot of other stuff out there that could easily bring him down by the end of this year from my sources...........
Is this the 876 day Prime Ministerial scandal cycle?
@britainelects 7m7 minutes ago EU referendum poll Remain: 43% (+2) Leave: 39% (-3) (via ICM / 12 - 14 Feb)
Fux sake.
An interesting question is whether Trump clinching the GOP nomination, amid further anti-politician, anti-immigrant rhetoric, will impact on the EU Ref.
It's possible.
I could see Farage flying to the US to get a personal endorsement from Trump for Brexit. UKIP voters are the only UK voters who give Trump a positive approval rating
That's quite a significant poll. Shows the drift to LEAVE has stalled.
Relief for HMG. But not relaxation.
It seems to me the ICM poll is just showing random variation at present around a roughly 50/50 point, with perhaps Remain marginally ahead.
Yes, but, importantly, the surge to LEAVE has apparently ended. That must have been unnerving for Cameron: the idea that LEAVE was enjoying a grand emotional upswing - which could have put LEAVE out of sight, before he'd even started the campaign.
What Cameron needs to do now is get the gruesome business of selling this farcical "deal" out of the way, then go all out on Project Panic. The "deal" is now actively hindering the REMAIN campaign. I expect them to quietly forget it over the coming weeks, as much as possible.
That's a lot to deduce from a change within the Margin of Error
But it's two polls. ICM and Ipsos Mori.
OK maybe I am over-reacting! I shall go to Sainsbury's and buy a fine British steak.
Had a tremendous fillet from there the other night - few minutes each side in the pan then finished off in the oven. Almost as good as MASH!
Drool. Been months since I had a tolerable steak never mind a good one. There are many compensations for living in this part of the world, currently living 50 yards from a tropic reef beach is one of them, but good beef not so much!
Sainsbury's do a magnificent 28 day aged, marbled Hereford ribeye. I cook it using the Heston Blumenthal method. Quickly fried at maximum heat in top quality olive oil, 15 seconds on one side, then turn it over, and repeat for three and a half minutes. Oh yes. oh yes.
SEAL IN THE JUICES
*heads for supermarket*
Just a heads up, it's not a great idea healthwise to use olive oil to cook at very high temperatures - it's not stable at that temperature. It's a monounsaturate, so better than a polyunsaturated vegetable oil, but you're best off using a saturated fat like ghee (clarified butter) or coconut oil. http://www.westonaprice.org/know-your-fats/the-big-fat-surprise-toxic-heated-oils/
Her endorsement matters so much in S.Carolina that Mitt Romney lost by a landslide to Newt Gingrich in 2012.
What it will do is put a big sign on Marco Rubio's back saying "hit me" to the other candidates, while not offering any but a marginal 1-2% boost to him.
That's a fairly simplistic way to look at it. Gingrich won in a friendly state to him on the back of a very positive debate performance where was viewed to be treated unfairly. Haley had endorsed Romney months in December and was already priced into the polls.
At the very least it give Rubio a couple of days of positive press coverage 72 hours before the election. If he can beat Cruz in SC and then NV Cruz quickly looks like an also ran and the floodgates open for Rubio.
The bottom 3 that are most likely to drop out have 14% all together, Trump's lead is 15%.
GE Match-ups
Hillary 43 -5 Trump 45 +1
Hillary 44 -3 Cruz 45 0
Hillary 42 -3 Rubio 48 0
Sanders 43 Trump 44
Sanders 44 Cruz 42
Sanders 42 Rubio 46
Hilary being beaten by Cruz & Trump. That'll keep the liberals up at night !
Personally, I think that Trump would comfortably beat Hillary, because she'd pile up votes in New York and California (which were Democrat anyway), while he'd take the rust belt for the Republicans.
On the other hand, I think Cruz would rack up massive vote shares in the Deep South, Texas, and evangelical states, but would be an electoral liability in the Mid West, and the Rust Belt.
Interesting discussion on here a few days ago about the 7/1 on offer or so about Cameron not being PM at the end of the year. I think that there is value in that bet for a whole host of reasons beside the obvious EU referendum debacle. There's a whole lot of other stuff out there that could easily bring him down by the end of this year from my sources...........
Is this the 876 day Prime Ministerial scandal cycle?
Deduct 86 and 88 from your number and add Finchley Road, and search that in YouTube then you might have one of your answers.
Interesting discussion on here a few days ago about the 7/1 on offer or so about Cameron not being PM at the end of the year. I think that there is value in that bet for a whole host of reasons beside the obvious EU referendum debacle. There's a whole lot of other stuff out there that could easily bring him down by the end of this year from my sources...........
Is this the 876 day Prime Ministerial scandal cycle?
Deduct 86 and 88 from your number and add Finchley Road, and search that in YouTube then you might have one of your answers.
Interesting discussion on here a few days ago about the 7/1 on offer or so about Cameron not being PM at the end of the year. I think that there is value in that bet for a whole host of reasons beside the obvious EU referendum debacle. There's a whole lot of other stuff out there that could easily bring him down by the end of this year from my sources...........
Is this the 876 day Prime Ministerial scandal cycle?
He knows a guy who knows a guy who said there's a photo. He hasn't actually see the photo (the guy at the end of the chain). But he knows someone that has....
That's quite a significant poll. Shows the drift to LEAVE has stalled.
Relief for HMG. But not relaxation.
It seems to me the ICM poll is just showing random variation at present around a roughly 50/50 point, with perhaps Remain marginally ahead.
Yes, but, importantly, the surge to LEAVE has apparently ended. That must have been unnerving for Cameron: the idea that LEAVE was enjoying a grand emotional upswing - which could have put LEAVE out of sight, before he'd even started the campaign.
What Cameron needs to do now is get the gruesome business of selling this farcical "deal" out of the way, then go all out on Project Panic. The "deal" is now actively hindering the REMAIN campaign. I expect them to quietly forget it over the coming weeks, as much as possible.
That's a lot to deduce from a change within the Margin of Error
But it's two polls. ICM and Ipsos Mori.
OK maybe I am over-reacting! I shall go to Sainsbury's and buy a fine British steak.
Had a tremendous fillet from there the other night - few minutes each side in the pan then finished off in the oven. Almost as good as MASH!
Drool. Been months since I had a tolerable steak never mind a good one. There are many compensations for living in this part of the world, currently living 50 yards from a tropic reef beach is one of them, but good beef not so much!
Sainsbury's do a magnificent 28 day aged, marbled Hereford ribeye. I cook it using the Heston Blumenthal method. Quickly fried at maximum heat in top quality olive oil, 15 seconds on one side, then turn it over, and repeat for three and a half minutes. Oh yes. oh yes.
SEAL IN THE JUICES
*heads for supermarket*
Just a heads up, it's not a great idea healthwise to use olive oil to cook at very high temperatures - it's not stable at that temperature. It's a monounsaturate, so better than a polyunsaturated vegetable oil, but you're best off using a saturated fat like ghee (clarified butter) or coconut oil. http://www.westonaprice.org/know-your-fats/the-big-fat-surprise-toxic-heated-oils/
Comments
As I said in the lead up to the GE, it is like celebrating or booing a throw in at a football match
Nevertheless, his point stands. The sneering attitude of the most privileged in our society is there and it oozes snobbery, and views the WWC as beneath contempt.
The only difference I can see between the Labour side of Thornberry and Thompson, and the Conservative side of Morgan and Soubry, is the economics.
The social attitudes are the same.
Hmmmm.
You're talking to someone who stayed up night after night to read the daily yougov polls (and cared about it too)
..oh, I see your point.
As others have said, I'd be surprised if there are over 150 Tory MP's signed up to the out campaign when the dust settles.
Hear them squirm.
Ironically, the old toff ridden Tory party would not have stood for failing to represent the common man. Country Tories were in contact with their employees, staff etc far more frequently than the new establishment are with the new poor.
It's possible.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3427366/He-frilly-nightie-danced-playing-sax-Former-Miss-Arkansas-says-Bill-Clinton-bed-confided-Hillary-sex-women-fears-Hillary-vendetta-sleeps-loaded-semi-automatic.html#ixzz40PPnghGO
And I think if it came down to Hillary against Trump, I think Trump would destroy her in the fall, as he knows well enough where her many weaknesses lie.
Not being English myself I do find the way the English try and place you rather amusing. If you sound and look right they make all sorts of assumptions about you which have little to do with the reality. It is quite fun to mess with them when this attempt to pigeonhole you is a little too obvious.
We all make assumptions about other people based on superficial indicators. It is hard and takes a bit of effort to really see people for what they are and for what they could be. Often outsiders are better at spotting potential precisely because they are outsiders and really look at what they are seeing and, maybe, because it's harder to read the unconscious signs.
Being on the edge of a group is lonely but it does give you a view that others in the middle don't get.
The working class are neither the salt of the earth nor chavs. They're like you or I: people with jobs, hopes, dreams, difficulties, families and friends. All this lumping of people into groups (WWC, BME and all the rest of it) is such lazy condescension.
It's impact on the voting public I'm interested in.
It was a back channel message - a window on the negotiations. Who knows what the purpose of that message was - but it is clear there was a purpose.
Ambassadors don't make comments like that to people like G.O.D. at a time like this unless they have a reason.
She is asked *all the time* "where are you from?" because having perfect English but a slightly foreign accent is confusing to those used to placing people.
She's mad and bad, and dangerous.
Ted Cruz POTUS 29.5
Amazing how quickly Hilary went quiet after this tweet. Roger Stone has a mountain of stuff on Hilary he will unload, she won't be able to shrug it off.
Trump would be problematic for Dave, he would find himself very isolated on foreign policy and his record on immigration etc. will be highlighted.
The argument for Leave would have to be that there is some future upside not attainable by staying in, which outweighs the differential risk of leaving. I'm sceptical about that, but to be fair it's not something which has been very much discussed.
More than any country apart from our own the outcome of the election is Big News.
And Trump has a knack of grabbing the headlines...
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/17/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-nevada-poll/
Young TSE: If you want.
Young Sunil: MEAT? Ugh!
Young TSE: It's what Ian Rush drinks!
Young Sunil: Ian Rush?
Young TSE: Yeah, and he said if I didn't drink lots of MEAT, when I grow up, I wouldn't be good enough to play for Accrington Stanley!
Young Sunil: Accrington Stanley? Who are they?
Young TSE: Exactly!
http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/#
"Are EU sitting comfortably? Then I'll begin..."
I might vote REMAIN
Colour me unconvinced.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/south-carolina-gov-nikki-haley-endorses-rubio-n520251
If SCOTUS nomination is still live then the vote will transfer.
"Is someone getting the best
the best
the best
the best of EU?"
Aha: I see you've edited it. Phew. Well not really. Beating wives not on.
What it will do is put a big sign on Marco Rubio's back saying "hit me" to the other candidates, while not offering nothing else but a marginal 1-2% boost to him.
http://www.westonaprice.org/know-your-fats/the-big-fat-surprise-toxic-heated-oils/
At the very least it give Rubio a couple of days of positive press coverage 72 hours before the election. If he can beat Cruz in SC and then NV Cruz quickly looks like an also ran and the floodgates open for Rubio.
On the other hand, I think Cruz would rack up massive vote shares in the Deep South, Texas, and evangelical states, but would be an electoral liability in the Mid West, and the Rust Belt.
It's seriously disturbing.
We don't need importing scum like this.