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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Ipsos MORI phone EURef poll finds almost no change in REMAIN lead

Updated all the latest #EURef polling when actual question asked. The phone-online divide wider than ever pic.twitter.com/WO14EmOp4F

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TheScreamingEagles

Fascinating.

TheScreamingEagles

It has dawned on me that both the online and phone polls could be both wrong and Leave wins by a landslide.

TheScreamingEagles

There's a VI poll in there too with Corbynmania sweeping the nation.

Changes since Jan. Con 39 (-1) Lab 33 (+2) UKIP 12 (+1) LD 6 (-1) Greens 3 (-1)

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

It has dawned on me that both the online and phone polls could be both wrong and Leave wins by a landslide.

Turnout by Labour voters is normally truly appalling for European type elections. Plus you know every kipper, their mother in law and dog will show up... Leave could win - it's very hard to tell.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

It has dawned on me that both the online and phone polls could be both wrong and Leave wins by a landslide.

Don't tease me.

Plato_Says

We have received further reports of anti-semitism in @OxUniLabour and are appalled at such shocking prejudice. https://t.co/frk9Gg8Bbf

Casino_Royale

On topic, one, some or all of the pollsters will have egg on their face (again) at the end of June.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It has dawned on me that both the online and phone polls could be both wrong and Leave wins by a landslide.

Turnout by Labour voters is normally truly appalling for European type elections. Plus you know every kipper, their mother in law and dog will show up... Leave could win - it's very hard to tell.

I did a piece last year about how Leave could win.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/05/31/apathy-and-the-older-voters-might-be-the-key-for-out-winning-the-referendum/

SandyRentool

TheScreamingEagles said:

It has dawned on me that both the online and phone polls could be both wrong and Leave wins by a landslide.

Fingers crossed!

taffys

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, one, some or all of the pollsters will have egg on their face (again) at the end of June.

I honestly don't know why the people that commission them bother. Talk about a rip off.

Richard_Nabavi

That chart of which individuals would influence the choice is just weird. I don't know what it's measuring, but it certainly isn't measuring what it purports to measure: for example, Nicola Sturgeon more influential on Europe than Nigel Farage?

tlg86

Will the divide in polling continue to the bitter end? Or will they miraculously agree on a position about 48 hours before the vote?

Philip_Thompson

I find it amusing the leader of the Lib Dems doesn't even feature in the list of people who might influence a vote.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

That chart of which individuals would influence the choice is just weird. I don't know what it's measuring, but it certainly isn't measuring what it purports to measure: for example, Nicola Sturgeon more influential on Euurope than Nigel Farage?

You could argue that at the last general election, in England, Nicola Sturgeon was more influential than Nigel Farage

Plato_Says

I remain very sceptical. They're amusing discussion fodder, but nothing more.

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, one, some or all of the pollsters will have egg on their face (again) at the end of June.

Philip_Thompson

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That chart of which individuals would influence the choice is just weird. I don't know what it's measuring, but it certainly isn't measuring what it purports to measure: for example, Nicola Sturgeon more influential on Euurope than Nigel Farage?

You could argue that at the last general election, in England, Nicola Sturgeon was more influential than Nigel Farage

Plus there are many left-wing English voters who after the debates said they'd vote for Sturgeon if it was an option. Just because she is Scottish doesn't mean only Scots will listen to her.

runnymede

I find it amusing the leader of the Lib Dems doesn't even feature in the list of people who might influence a vote.

Cameron is their leader now

SimonStClare

The difference between phone and on-line polling remains quite remarkable - not sure that this bodes well for a reliable forecasting of events.

{edit] would appear many on PB feel the same way.

Philip_Thompson

runnymede said:

I find it amusing the leader of the Lib Dems doesn't even feature in the list of people who might influence a vote.

Cameron is their leader now

And a very successful one too.

TheScreamingEagles

Nominative Determinism alert

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cbay7w3XEAEI6Tb.png

AndyJS

I don't think the consensus of the site is Leave. It's Undecided.

John_M

Good afternoon all. How have they missed out the towering political giants in Wales?

Tissue_Price

TheScreamingEagles said:

There's a VI poll in there too with Corbynmania sweeping the nation.

Changes since Jan. Con 39 (-1) Lab 33 (+2) UKIP 12 (+1) LD 6 (-1) Greens 3 (-1)

I do wonder whether asking VI before EURef might create some sort of bias. Not sure in which direction... (plausible hypothesis: if you've rejected UKIP you're in more of a frame of mind to reject Leave).

Plato_Says

Sky
GOP candidate @JebBush sparks Twitter storm by posting image of handgun captioned "America" https://t.co/EmKPdoHvii https://t.co/wnimyZSN6y

Elvis gave a gun to Nixon, it's on display at Graceland.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nominative Determinism alert

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cbay7w3XEAEI6Tb.png

Has she been ploughed by a Field though ?

John_M

OT. At last, the wisdom of the Internet can be downloaded and archived for eternity, or the next Labour government, whichever comes first.

http://hexus.net/tech/news/storage/90587-archive-360tb-data-coin-sized-5d-quartz-disc-eternity/

Casino_Royale

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It has dawned on me that both the online and phone polls could be both wrong and Leave wins by a landslide.

Turnout by Labour voters is normally truly appalling for European type elections. Plus you know every kipper, their mother in law and dog will show up... Leave could win - it's very hard to tell.

But UKIP slightly underpolled and the Tories overpolled in the 2014 Euros.

Some polls showed UKIP well into the 30s.

TheScreamingEagles

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There's a VI poll in there too with Corbynmania sweeping the nation.

Changes since Jan. Con 39 (-1) Lab 33 (+2) UKIP 12 (+1) LD 6 (-1) Greens 3 (-1)

I do wonder whether asking VI before EURef might create some sort of bias. Not sure in which direction... (plausible hypothesis: if you've rejected UKIP you're in more of a frame of mind to reject Leave).

There's a correlation between the polls with the lowest UKIP VI to have the largest Remain leads.

Though I think that's modal issues rather than anything else.

Cyclefree

No surprise really. Remain is the default option.

Plus this may dishearten those who might vote Leave. If they think their vote won't make a difference why vote. Though the same could apply to Remain I suppose.

And of course polls such as these will also in part explain why - apart from all the other difficulties - there is no incentive on other EU states to offer anything very much on renegotiation. Why do so when all the indications are that Britain will vote to stay in on pretty much any terms?

As for Labour and anti-Semitism, it pains me to say this but anti-Semitism - often disguised as anti-Zionism (though not all anti-Zionists are anti-Semites, anti-Zionism has been seized upon by anti-Semites to justify or disguise their own bigotry) is now fashionable again amongst some - or, at least, no longer so reviled as it once was.

It is the oldest, most enduring, pernicious and harmful bigotry there is. And it is no surprise to see it endure and mutate even in liberal democratic UK or in other liberal democratic countries in Europe. Very very depressing and saddening news, though.

taffys

AndyJS said:

I don't think the consensus of the site is Leave. It's Undecided.

For me INs most passionate supporters are a thin crust of people who have done very well out of the current arrangements in the last two decades.

Outs supporters are knots of ordinary people meeting in assembly halls all over the country. You can see their Brexiteer organizing messages on twitter.

I just feel there are far more of the latter than the former.

taffys

Cyclefree said:

No surprise really. Remain is the default option.

Plus this may dishearten those who might vote Leave. If they think their vote won't make a difference why vote. Though the same could apply to Remain I suppose.

And of course polls such as these will also in part explain why - apart from all the other difficulties - there is no incentive on other EU states to offer anything very much on renegotiation. Why do so when all the indications are that Britain will vote to stay in on pretty much any terms?

As for Labour and anti-Semitism, it pains me to say this but anti-Semitism - often disguised as anti-Zionism (though not all anti-Zionists are anti-Semites, anti-Zionism has been seized upon by anti-Semites to justify or disguise their own bigotry) is now fashionable again amongst some - or, at least, no longer so reviled as it once was.

It is the oldest, most enduring, pernicious and harmful bigotry there is. And it is no surprise to see it endure and mutate even in liberal democratic UK or in other liberal democratic countries in Europe. Very very depressing and saddening news, though.

This rather flawed poll is very convenient for remain, at a very tough time.

Philip_Thompson

taffys said:

AndyJS said:

I don't think the consensus of the site is Leave. It's Undecided.

For me INs most passionate supporters are a thin crust of people who have done very well out of the current arrangements in the last two decades.

Outs supporters are knots of ordinary people meeting in assembly halls all over the country. You can see their Brexiteer organizing messages on twitter.

I just feel there are far more of the latter than the former.

For the most passionate maybe.

For the deeper swell of people who aren't passionate but simply content to live and vote when necessary without getting riled up I suspect there are far more of the former than the latter.

HYUFD

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It has dawned on me that both the online and phone polls could be both wrong and Leave wins by a landslide.

Turnout by Labour voters is normally truly appalling for European type elections. Plus you know every kipper, their mother in law and dog will show up... Leave could win - it's very hard to tell.

Remain lead with ABC1s and Leave with C2DEs, it is the middle class Remainers who are more likely to vote not the working class Leavers

HYUFD

taffys said:

AndyJS said:

I don't think the consensus of the site is Leave. It's Undecided.

For me INs most passionate supporters are a thin crust of people who have done very well out of the current arrangements in the last two decades.

Outs supporters are knots of ordinary people meeting in assembly halls all over the country. You can see their Brexiteer organizing messages on twitter.

I just feel there are far more of the latter than the former.

Passion did not win indyref did it!

OldKingCole

Betting alert. I’m informed that White Dog, successful tip from last week, is running at Chelmsford tomorrow (Thursday). My informant is still of the view that it’s an each-way bet, but if it doesn’t get boxed in, as happened last week, who knows.

Plato_Says

How will Labour overcome this?

CCHQ
No. ppl claiming unemployment-related benefits at LOWEST level since 1975- our plan is delivering more security & opportunity for families

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That chart of which individuals would influence the choice is just weird. I don't know what it's measuring, but it certainly isn't measuring what it purports to measure: for example, Nicola Sturgeon more influential on Euurope than Nigel Farage?

You could argue that at the last general election, in England, Nicola Sturgeon was more influential than Nigel Farage

Plus there are many left-wing English voters who after the debates said they'd vote for Sturgeon if it was an option. Just because she is Scottish doesn't mean only Scots will listen to her.

madasafish

As someone who is totally bored by the entire process -and am an OAP likely to favour Remain - I see nothing said or written to make me change my mind.

Indeed, as the Leave campaign appear to be a brain short of a leader - well they have two I believe and both appear rubbish - I fail to see how Leave could organise a drinking session in a pub .. or persuade any Don't Know to vote Leave ...let alone actually negotiate anything.

taffys

Plato_Says said:

How will Labour overcome this?

CCHQ
No. ppl claiming unemployment-related benefits at LOWEST level since 1975- our plan is delivering more security & opportunity for families

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That chart of which individuals would influence the choice is just weird. I don't know what it's measuring, but it certainly isn't measuring what it purports to measure: for example, Nicola Sturgeon more influential on Euurope than Nigel Farage?

You could argue that at the last general election, in England, Nicola Sturgeon was more influential than Nigel Farage

Plus there are many left-wing English voters who after the debates said they'd vote for Sturgeon if it was an option. Just because she is Scottish doesn't mean only Scots will listen to her.

Well if Ipsos Mori is correct, labour are doing an OK job...

Philip_Thompson

taffys said:

Plato_Says said:

How will Labour overcome this?

CCHQ
No. ppl claiming unemployment-related benefits at LOWEST level since 1975- our plan is delivering more security & opportunity for families

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That chart of which individuals would influence the choice is just weird. I don't know what it's measuring, but it certainly isn't measuring what it purports to measure: for example, Nicola Sturgeon more influential on Euurope than Nigel Farage?

You could argue that at the last general election, in England, Nicola Sturgeon was more influential than Nigel Farage

Plus there are many left-wing English voters who after the debates said they'd vote for Sturgeon if it was an option. Just because she is Scottish doesn't mean only Scots will listen to her.

Well if Ipsos Mori is correct, labour are doing an OK job...

... for CCHQ.

JohnO

I am working on the basis that all the polls will overstate remain as we know 'us oldies' are more likely to fulfil our civic duty than our more yooful fellow citizens.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Plato, probably Corbyn will strike back by insisting we give the Falklands to Argentina and disband MI5. That'll win over swing voters.

King Cole, not sure I can find that on Ladbrokes (for some reason they seem to have axed the search function).

Casino_Royale

Plato_Says said:

Sky
GOP candidate @JebBush sparks Twitter storm by posting image of handgun captioned "America" https://t.co/EmKPdoHvii https://t.co/wnimyZSN6y

Elvis gave a gun to Nixon, it's on display at Graceland.

Oh God, Piers Morgan weighed into the fray.

I sympathise with Jeb.

david_herdson

What's remarkable about the divide between the phone and online polls is that its (a lot) bigger now than it was at the general election. At least one side is wrong and possibly wrong by a methodology-destroying amount.

Casino_Royale

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

It has dawned on me that both the online and phone polls could be both wrong and Leave wins by a landslide.

Turnout by Labour voters is normally truly appalling for European type elections. Plus you know every kipper, their mother in law and dog will show up... Leave could win - it's very hard to tell.

Remain lead with ABC1s and Leave with C2DEs, it is the middle class Remainers who are more likely to vote not the working class Leavers

But the Oldies are the most likely of all, and they are for Leave.

NickPalmer

Think the chart has a typo - Remain on 54, not 55?

I think the finding that people are sure Remain will win has an insidious effect on Leave - it's discouraging well-known Tory MPs from breaking cover (there aren't many who cheerfully embrace lost causes), and that in turn is probably going to affect voting intention too. People who are sure that their cause is unpopular and think it's led by squabbling nonentities may be less likely to vote.

Decent poll for Labour, incidentally. Not actively beating each up every day may be a good idea.

logical_song

JohnO said:

I am working on the basis that all the polls will overstate remain as we know 'us oldies' are more likely to fulfil our civic duty than our more yooful fellow citizens.

Aren't 'oldies' more conservative and dislike change?

Plato_Says

The backstory to the Elvis gun thing is brilliant. Well worth a Google. He was sick of the counter culture.

Casino_Royale said:

Plato_Says said:

Sky
GOP candidate @JebBush sparks Twitter storm by posting image of handgun captioned "America" https://t.co/EmKPdoHvii https://t.co/wnimyZSN6y

Elvis gave a gun to Nixon, it's on display at Graceland.

Oh God, Piers Morgan weighed into the fray.

I sympathise with Jeb.

kingbongo

If Ipsos Mori don't know how to spell George Osborne's name I'm not sure how much faith to place in the analytical skills

TheScreamingEagles

JohnO said:

I am working on the basis that all the polls will overstate remain as we know 'us oldies' are more likely to fulfil our civic duty than our more yooful fellow citizens.

Wait until Dave says Brexit threatens pensions. The oldies will back Remain and the polls underestimate Remain.

JohnO

taffys said:

Plato_Says said:

How will Labour overcome this?

CCHQ
No. ppl claiming unemployment-related benefits at LOWEST level since 1975- our plan is delivering more security & opportunity for families

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That chart of which individuals would influence the choice is just weird. I don't know what it's measuring, but it certainly isn't measuring what it purports to measure: for example, Nicola Sturgeon more influential on Euurope than Nigel Farage?

You could argue that at the last general election, in England, Nicola Sturgeon was more influential than Nigel Farage

Plus there are many left-wing English voters who after the debates said they'd vote for Sturgeon if it was an option. Just because she is Scottish doesn't mean only Scots will listen to her.

Well if Ipsos Mori is correct, labour are doing an OK job...

Ah Mr Illustrious Elmbridge Welsh Person, Further to your post yesterday, I am certain that Dom Raab had not yet declared his intention on the referendum. If I were guessing (and I've not discussed the matter with him) my hunch - 53-47? - that he will choose Leave, but it wouldn't be any surprise were he to opt for Remain. Either way, it won't be a problem with any of us.

SimonStClare

logical_song said:

JohnO said:

I am working on the basis that all the polls will overstate remain as we know 'us oldies' are more likely to fulfil our civic duty than our more yooful fellow citizens.

Aren't 'oldies' more conservative and dislike change?

The ‘oldies’ have seen 43 years of change under the EU - and they don’t appear to like it.

taffys

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

I am working on the basis that all the polls will overstate remain as we know 'us oldies' are more likely to fulfil our civic duty than our more yooful fellow citizens.

Wait until Dave says Brexit threatens pensions. The oldies will back Remain and the polls underestimate Remain.

I'm sure the prospect of the well heeled, alternatively threatening and sneering at ordinary people meeting in church halls because they are concerned about the fate of their country is one we can all look forward to.

taffys

JohnO said:

taffys said:

Plato_Says said:

How will Labour overcome this?

CCHQ
No. ppl claiming unemployment-related benefits at LOWEST level since 1975- our plan is delivering more security & opportunity for families

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That chart of which individuals would influence the choice is just weird. I don't know what it's measuring, but it certainly isn't measuring what it purports to measure: for example, Nicola Sturgeon more influential on Euurope than Nigel Farage?

You could argue that at the last general election, in England, Nicola Sturgeon was more influential than Nigel Farage

Plus there are many left-wing English voters who after the debates said they'd vote for Sturgeon if it was an option. Just because she is Scottish doesn't mean only Scots will listen to her.

Well if Ipsos Mori is correct, labour are doing an OK job...

Ah Mr Illustrious Elmbridge Welsh Person, Further to your post yesterday, I am certain that Dom Raab had not yet declared his intention on the referendum. If I were guessing (and I've not discussed the matter with him) my hunch - 53-47? - that he will choose Leave, but it wouldn't be any surprise were he to opt for Remain. Either way, it won't be a problem with any of us.

Indeed. I only raised it because Guido had him down as an outer. Fellow must be some sort of mind reader.

TOPPING

1. Where's that @Viceroy bloke - excellent addition to the debate.

2. BBC freely using "eurozone" instead of "EU member state", two completely different things, and then stating how eg. the French don't want the UK to hold back eurozone integration or have a say over eurozone financial matters. Well of course they don't but equally, of course we wouldn't expect to determine the nature of the SSM, SRM, although we are of course welcome to join.

3. With such a level of debate and obfuscation, this really is going to come down to anecdotal scare tactics

david_herdson

NickPalmer said:

Think the chart has a typo - Remain on 54, not 55?

I think the finding that people are sure Remain will win has an insidious effect on Leave - it's discouraging well-known Tory MPs from breaking cover (there aren't many who cheerfully embrace lost causes), and that in turn is probably going to affect voting intention too. People who are sure that their cause is unpopular and think it's led by squabbling nonentities may be less likely to vote.

Decent poll for Labour, incidentally. Not actively beating each up every day may be a good idea.

You can sit back and watch the other side do it instead for the next eight months.

That said, there's nothing wrong with making the most of a losing cause. Many a politician has sprung to prominence that way. Some of them even found that it wasn't a losing cause.

Pulpstar

taffys said:

JohnO said:

taffys said:

Plato_Says said:

How will Labour overcome this?

CCHQ
No. ppl claiming unemployment-related benefits at LOWEST level since 1975- our plan is delivering more security & opportunity for families

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That chart of which individuals would influence the choice is just weird. I don't know what it's measuring, but it certainly isn't measuring what it purports to measure: for example, Nicola Sturgeon more influential on Euurope than Nigel Farage?

You could argue that at the last general election, in England, Nicola Sturgeon was more influential than Nigel Farage

Plus there are many left-wing English voters who after the debates said they'd vote for Sturgeon if it was an option. Just because she is Scottish doesn't mean only Scots will listen to her.

Well if Ipsos Mori is correct, labour are doing an OK job...

Ah Mr Illustrious Elmbridge Welsh Person, Further to your post yesterday, I am certain that Dom Raab had not yet declared his intention on the referendum. If I were guessing (and I've not discussed the matter with him) my hunch - 53-47? - that he will choose Leave, but it wouldn't be any surprise were he to opt for Remain. Either way, it won't be a problem with any of us.

Indeed. I only raised it because Guido had him down as an outer. Fellow must be some sort of mind reader.

I've never heard Kevin Foster say he was an outer, either.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

I am working on the basis that all the polls will overstate remain as we know 'us oldies' are more likely to fulfil our civic duty than our more yooful fellow citizens.

Wait until Dave says Brexit threatens pensions. The oldies will back Remain and the polls underestimate Remain.

That's a very good point. Of course that'll happen.

Baffled I hadn't thought of it.

Brexit threatens the NHS, Pensions, Strictly, X-factor, the Premier League, house prices, pubs, soaps, and cheap shopping at Primark.

Have I missed anything?

Plato_Says

Just for interest, I was very sceptical about Twitter censorship et al, then Nero was downgraded.

Now I've read about shadow banning where tweets appear to post but never in followers timelines. I've just experienced this twice re the Jeb Bush Gun story.

This is insane for a company in trouble, and for their brand. I only noticed because I checked my timeline for another tweet.

Richard_Nabavi

taffys said:

Indeed. I only raised it because Guido had him down as an outer. Fellow must be some sort of mind reader.

Ditto Nus Ghani. I'm not absolutely certain, but I don't think she has come out for either side. Guido's chart would be much more useful if it said where they got the info.

Casino_Royale

I wonder if there's a point at which Project Fear goes so obviously and overwhelmingly OTT that rather than voting Remain out of fear, they vote Leave out of anger for being taken for fools.

At least, that's what I hope will happen. I suspect some will talk Leave (but vote Remain) and never admit it, even after the event.

chestnut

SimonStClare said:

The difference between phone and on-line polling remains quite remarkable - not sure that this bodes well for a reliable forecasting of events.

{edit] would appear many on PB feel the same way.

Some of the phone polls have 96% of under 25s saying they've definitely made up their mind and they're in. In the online polls, 20% own up to not knowing how they will vote.

Half of them won't be registered, they'll be sweating over exams and many will be down the pub watching the football come June. That applies in Wales, NI as well as England. Scottish football has the month off.

A brief glance across the polls looks like:

Scotland Remain 65-35
North Remain 55-45
Midlands Leave 55-45
South Leave 55-45
Wales 50-50

From middle age up, the trend is towards Leave.

A bad news cycle in May/June will prove interesting.

Richard_Nabavi

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

I am working on the basis that all the polls will overstate remain as we know 'us oldies' are more likely to fulfil our civic duty than our more yooful fellow citizens.

Wait until Dave says Brexit threatens pensions. The oldies will back Remain and the polls underestimate Remain.

That's a very good point. Of course that'll happen.

Baffled I hadn't thought of it.

Brexit threatens the NHS, Pensions, Strictly, X-factor, the Premier League, house prices, pubs, soaps, and cheap shopping at Primark.

Have I missed anything?

Bingo, Senior Railcards, OAP discounts at the hairdressers, coach trips..

Casino_Royale

Richard_Nabavi said:

taffys said:

Indeed. I only raised it because Guido had him down as an outer. Fellow must be some sort of mind reader.

Ditto Nus Ghani. I'm not absolutely certain, but I don't think she has come out for either side. Guido's chart would be much more useful if it said where they got the info.

I said as much first thing this morning on the previous thread.

I'm taking it with a large pinch of salt. Guido does not have a great record as a tipster.

isam

Here is a rejected PB thread that is pro LEAVE

http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/mass-immigration-stealth-tax-on-working.html

Plato_Says

The url says it all

http://www.newstatesman.com/2016/02/ken-livingstone-party-s-plan-stop-mps-choosing-who-stands-labour-leader

He tells me that the NEC is working to secure a leftwing future for Labour by changing how the party chooses its leader. When I ask him if a future Corbynite candidate could make the ballot under the current system – which requires a nomination by 15 per cent of MPs – Livingstone smiles. “I think you can rely on Labour’s NEC to resolve that issue.”

And

In his characteristically colourful style, he adds: “Jeremy is genuinely a democrat. Unlike the New Labour regime, which was more like North Korea, internally.”

felix

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

I am working on the basis that all the polls will overstate remain as we know 'us oldies' are more likely to fulfil our civic duty than our more yooful fellow citizens.

Wait until Dave says Brexit threatens pensions. The oldies will back Remain and the polls underestimate Remain.

That's a very good point. Of course that'll happen.

Baffled I hadn't thought of it.

Brexit threatens the NHS, Pensions, Strictly, X-factor, the Premier League, house prices, pubs, soaps, and cheap shopping at Primark.

Have I missed anything?

Sense of humour?

Philip_Thompson

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

I am working on the basis that all the polls will overstate remain as we know 'us oldies' are more likely to fulfil our civic duty than our more yooful fellow citizens.

Wait until Dave says Brexit threatens pensions. The oldies will back Remain and the polls underestimate Remain.

That's a very good point. Of course that'll happen.

Baffled I hadn't thought of it.

Brexit threatens the NHS, Pensions, Strictly, X-factor, the Premier League, house prices, pubs, soaps, and cheap shopping at Primark.

Have I missed anything?

While Remain threatens sausages, bananas, chocolate, the weather, the monarchy, cricket and drinking in pints.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

I wonder if there's a point at which Project Fear goes so obviously and overwhelmingly OTT that rather than voting Remain out of fear, they vote Leave out of anger for being taken for fools.

At least, that's what I hope will happen. I suspect some will talk Leave (but vote Remain) and never admit it, even after the event.

To be fair some more extreme Leavers (mostly on social media) are going full on Project Fear too and channelling the late Peter Griffiths.

A vote for remain is literally a vote for the EU forcing you to let immigrant rapists in your house.

Casino_Royale

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

I am working on the basis that all the polls will overstate remain as we know 'us oldies' are more likely to fulfil our civic duty than our more yooful fellow citizens.

Wait until Dave says Brexit threatens pensions. The oldies will back Remain and the polls underestimate Remain.

That's a very good point. Of course that'll happen.

Baffled I hadn't thought of it.

Brexit threatens the NHS, Pensions, Strictly, X-factor, the Premier League, house prices, pubs, soaps, and cheap shopping at Primark.

Have I missed anything?

Bingo, Senior Railcards, OAP discounts at the hairdressers, coach trips..

It's a risky strategy (because it could help reinforce the Project Fear message) but I think what Leave should do is try (if they've quite finished fighting amongst themselves) and get out there and refute and satirise the likely scaremongering tactics before Remain even try and use them.

That way, when they are used, people will be prepared for them, and it will greatly diminish the shock value.

They may even laugh at them.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

I wonder if there's a point at which Project Fear goes so obviously and overwhelmingly OTT that rather than voting Remain out of fear, they vote Leave out of anger for being taken for fools.

At least, that's what I hope will happen. I suspect some will talk Leave (but vote Remain) and never admit it, even after the event.

To be fair some more extreme Leavers (mostly on social media) are going full on Project Fear too and channelling the late Peter Griffiths.

A vote for remain is literally a vote for the EU forcing you to let immigrant rapists in your house.

It's a race to the bottom. But in a fear fight, Remain will win hands down.

Sean_F

Casino_Royale said:

I wonder if there's a point at which Project Fear goes so obviously and overwhelmingly OTT that rather than voting Remain out of fear, they vote Leave out of anger for being taken for fools.

At least, that's what I hope will happen. I suspect some will talk Leave (but vote Remain) and never admit it, even after the event.

The danger for Project Fear will come if it evokes laughter.

Sean_F

Quite a range, excluding don't knows.

Leave ranges from 40-56%, Remain from 44-60%.

chestnut

The 4.5m people who voted UKIP in May and at the Euros will still turn out, irrespective of ABCD status.

Their vote was to force the government's hand, and it stands to reason that they will carry on because the referendum and change is what they wanted.

It's just the same as 45% voting for an independent Scotland. It was always a certainty that they would back the SNP last May.

It's a process of forcing change.

Casino_Royale

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

I am working on the basis that all the polls will overstate remain as we know 'us oldies' are more likely to fulfil our civic duty than our more yooful fellow citizens.

Wait until Dave says Brexit threatens pensions. The oldies will back Remain and the polls underestimate Remain.

That's a very good point. Of course that'll happen.

Baffled I hadn't thought of it.

Brexit threatens the NHS, Pensions, Strictly, X-factor, the Premier League, house prices, pubs, soaps, and cheap shopping at Primark.

Have I missed anything?

While Remain threatens sausages, bananas, chocolate, the weather, the monarchy, cricket and drinking in pints.

No, the monarchy have come out for Remain.

Pints of beer are ok, so far, but metrication has crept into BBC parlance (far too much use of kilometres going on) and in weights and measures in supermarkets.

Also the latest EU directives are trying to switch our national rail network from MPH to KPH, and I know because I work on Crossrail and it came up yesterday.

HurstLlama

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That chart of which individuals would influence the choice is just weird. I don't know what it's measuring, but it certainly isn't measuring what it purports to measure: for example, Nicola Sturgeon more influential on Euurope than Nigel Farage?

You could argue that at the last general election, in England, Nicola Sturgeon was more influential than Nigel Farage

I think it might be more accurate to say that Alex Salmond was more influential that Farage. At anyrate that poster of Salmond with Miliband in his top pocket cost UKIP an awful lot of votes and may even have got Cameron his majority.

isam

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

I wonder if there's a point at which Project Fear goes so obviously and overwhelmingly OTT that rather than voting Remain out of fear, they vote Leave out of anger for being taken for fools.

At least, that's what I hope will happen. I suspect some will talk Leave (but vote Remain) and never admit it, even after the event.

The danger for Project Fear will come if it evokes laughter.

Whats strange about it is that, despite being described as scaremongering by the establishment, almost every prediction by anti immigration politicians regarding numbers of immigrants at a time when it could be stopped have been

(a) accurate, &
(b) supported by public opinion

Yet somehow the establishment have managed to cast the truth tellers in a bad light, despite them being proved correct.. something to do with Gramsci and State apparatus I think

Richard_Nabavi

Casino_Royale said:

It's a risky strategy (because it could help reinforce the Project Fear message) but I think what Leave should do is try (if they've quite finished fighting amongst themselves) and get out there and refute and satirise the likely scaremongering tactics before Remain even try and use them.

That way, when they are used, people will be prepared for them, and it will greatly diminish the shock value.

They may even laugh at them.

I don't think the Remain side will go OTT (although the Leave side will accuse them of doing so, of course). It will be more a steady drip of sowing doubt, which, given the lack of definition of the alternative, should be fairly easy.

Incidentally, the most striking thing about the government's role in this is how thorough they are being in making preparations to build the case. On the thread last night there was much talk of Cameron panicking, but he's not panicking: he's being very systematic, and he and the No 10 team are doing a lot of detailed work on the message. So much for 'essay-crisis Cameron'.

I wasn't expecting this, I thought he'd remain rather aloof from the campaign. I was quite wrong on that.

isam

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

It's a risky strategy (because it could help reinforce the Project Fear message) but I think what Leave should do is try (if they've quite finished fighting amongst themselves) and get out there and refute and satirise the likely scaremongering tactics before Remain even try and use them.

That way, when they are used, people will be prepared for them, and it will greatly diminish the shock value.

They may even laugh at them.

I don't think the Remain side will go OTT (although the Leave side will accuse them of doing so, of course). It will be more a steady drip of sowing doubt, which, given the lack of definition of the alternative, should be fairly easy.

Incidentally, the most striking thing about the government's role in this is how thorough they are being in making preparations to build the case. On the thread last night there was much talk of Cameron panicking, but he's not panicking: he's being very systematic, and he and the No 10 team are doing a lot of detailed work on the message. So much for 'essay-crisis Cameron'.

I wasn't expecting this, I thought he'd remain rather aloof from the campaign. I was quite wrong on that.

Haha!

Nabavi admits he was wrong on Cameron for the first time... and its that he was wrong to underestimate him!

Great stuff Ricky!

TheScreamingEagles

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That chart of which individuals would influence the choice is just weird. I don't know what it's measuring, but it certainly isn't measuring what it purports to measure: for example, Nicola Sturgeon more influential on Euurope than Nigel Farage?

You could argue that at the last general election, in England, Nicola Sturgeon was more influential than Nigel Farage

I think it might be more accurate to say that Alex Salmond was more influential that Farage. At anyrate that poster of Salmond with Miliband in his top pocket cost UKIP an awful lot of votes and may even have got Cameron his majority.

We also put Miliband in Sturgeon's pocket too.

http://cdn2.spectator.co.uk/files/2015/04/Sturgeon_Pocket_1200x6283-620x324.jpg

But I agree, the SNP angle turned the Tories into the largest party in a hung parliament into a Tory majority.

Though from my canvassing experiences it was Lab and Lib Dem voters who brought it up the most, unprompted.

Plato_Says

Chris000g

Once of this parish, some interesting graphs

Why are migrants anxious to leave France and come to UK - I don't think it's the benefits... https://t.co/OZAeagiCOm

but when a migrant in a safe country opts to try to enter another country for economic benefits their argument they are a refugee collapses

Richard_Nabavi

isam said:

Nabavi admits he was wrong on Cameron for the first time... and its that he was wrong to underestimate him!

Great stuff Ricky!

No idea who Ricky is, but I wasn't talking about underestimating Cameron, I was talking about the strategy being different from what I expected.

Sean_F

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

It's a risky strategy (because it could help reinforce the Project Fear message) but I think what Leave should do is try (if they've quite finished fighting amongst themselves) and get out there and refute and satirise the likely scaremongering tactics before Remain even try and use them.

That way, when they are used, people will be prepared for them, and it will greatly diminish the shock value.

They may even laugh at them.

I don't think the Remain side will go OTT (although the Leave side will accuse them of doing so, of course). It will be more a steady drip of sowing doubt, which, given the lack of definition of the alternative, should be fairly easy.

Incidentally, the most striking thing about the government's role in this is how thorough they are being in making preparations to build the case. On the thread last night there was much talk of Cameron panicking, but he's not panicking: he's being very systematic, and he and the No 10 team are doing a lot of detailed work on the message. So much for 'essay-crisis Cameron'.

I wasn't expecting this, I thought he'd remain rather aloof from the campaign. I was quite wrong on that.

So far, they haven't been doing a very good job (it doesn't mean they won't do so in the future). They either make silly claims about immigration and terrorism, or else they think that threats from bankers to move jobs abroad will sway the population (banks being about as popular as herpes at the moment).

Sean_F

Plato_Says said:

Chris000g

Once of this parish, some interesting graphs

Why are migrants anxious to leave France and come to UK - I don't think it's the benefits... https://t.co/OZAeagiCOm

but when a migrant in a safe country opts to try to enter another country for economic benefits their argument they are a refugee collapses

Some people think that claiming asylum gives you an international passport to the destination of your choice.

Plato_Says

Sean_F said:

Plato_Says said:

Chris000g

Once of this parish, some interesting graphs

Why are migrants anxious to leave France and come to UK - I don't think it's the benefits... https://t.co/OZAeagiCOm

but when a migrant in a safe country opts to try to enter another country for economic benefits their argument they are a refugee collapses

Some people think that claiming asylum gives you an international passport to the destination of your choice.

Richard_Nabavi

Sean_F said:

So far, they haven't been doing a very good job (it doesn't mean they won't do so in the future). They either make silly claims about immigration and terrorism, or else they think that threats from bankers to move jobs abroad will sway the population (banks being about as popular as herpes at the moment).

The silly claims about immigration and terrorism come mainly from the Leave side, and the Remain side will want to neutralise them as much as they can since they are potent politically (albeit mostly nonsense). Neutralising them by pointing out dry facts, such as the fact that a million migrants in Germany are not about to turn up here, and have no right to come here, is not very effective since this is an argument about emotion, perception, and images on TV screens. So I expect a lot more silly claims on this subject (on both sides).

I don't think you are right about the bankers and jobs argument. Yes, banks are not popular, but there's going to be a very steady flow of reasonable-sounding people, with no axe to grind, appearing on TV saying British jobs are at risk. Expect this to increase in intensity as soon as the deal is announced. Remember, Remain don't have to win this argument, they just need to sow doubt.

MarqueeMark

Pulpstar said:

taffys said:

JohnO said:

taffys said:

Plato_Says said:

How will Labour overcome this?

CCHQ
No. ppl claiming unemployment-related benefits at LOWEST level since 1975- our plan is delivering more security & opportunity for families

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That chart of which individuals would influence the choice is just weird. I don't know what it's measuring, but it certainly isn't measuring what it purports to measure: for example, Nicola Sturgeon more influential on Euurope than Nigel Farage?

You could argue that at the last general election, in England, Nicola Sturgeon was more influential than Nigel Farage

Plus there are many left-wing English voters who after the debates said they'd vote for Sturgeon if it was an option. Just because she is Scottish doesn't mean only Scots will listen to her.

Well if Ipsos Mori is correct, labour are doing an OK job...

Ah Mr Illustrious Elmbridge Welsh Person, Further to your post yesterday, I am certain that Dom Raab had not yet declared his intention on the referendum. If I were guessing (and I've not discussed the matter with him) my hunch - 53-47? - that he will choose Leave, but it wouldn't be any surprise were he to opt for Remain. Either way, it won't be a problem with any of us.

Indeed. I only raised it because Guido had him down as an outer. Fellow must be some sort of mind reader.

I've never heard Kevin Foster say he was an outer, either.

Still keeping his powder dry.

Sean_F

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sean_F said:

So far, they haven't been doing a very good job (it doesn't mean they won't do so in the future). They either make silly claims about immigration and terrorism, or else they think that threats from bankers to move jobs abroad will sway the population (banks being about as popular as herpes at the moment).

The silly claims about immigration and terrorism come mainly from the Leave side, and the Remain side will want to neutralise them as much as they can since they are potent politically (albeit mostly nonsense). Neutralising them by pointing out dry facts, such as the fact that a million migrants in Germany are not about to turn up here, and have no right to come here, is not very effective since this is an argument about emotion, perception, and images on TV screens. So I expect a lot more silly claims on this subject (on both sides).

I don't think you are right about the bankers and jobs argument. Yes, banks are not popular, but there's going to be a very steady flow of reasonable-sounding people, with no axe to grind, appearing on TV saying British jobs are at risk. Expect this to increase in intensity as soon as the deal is announced. Remember, Remain don't have to win this argument, they just need to sow doubt.

I don't think the Great and the Good carry the same weight they did 40 years ago. They carry some weight, but the level of deference is far less.

Sunil_Prasannan

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JohnO said:

I am working on the basis that all the polls will overstate remain as we know 'us oldies' are more likely to fulfil our civic duty than our more yooful fellow citizens.

Wait until Dave says Brexit threatens pensions. The oldies will back Remain and the polls underestimate Remain.

That's a very good point. Of course that'll happen.

Baffled I hadn't thought of it.

Brexit threatens the NHS, Pensions, Strictly, X-factor, the Premier League, house prices, pubs, soaps, and cheap shopping at Primark.

Have I missed anything?

While Remain threatens sausages, bananas, chocolate, the weather, the monarchy, cricket and drinking in pints.

Don't forget cake! (hat-tip Emma Thompson!)

isam

x

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sean_F said:

So far, they haven't been doing a very good job (it doesn't mean they won't do so in the future). They either make silly claims about immigration and terrorism, or else they think that threats from bankers to move jobs abroad will sway the population (banks being about as popular as herpes at the moment).

The silly claims about immigration and terrorism come mainly from the Leave side, and the Remain side will want to neutralise them as much as they can since they are potent politically (albeit mostly nonsense). Neutralising them by pointing out dry facts, such as the fact that a million migrants in Germany are not about to turn up here, and have no right to come here, is not very effective since this is an argument about emotion, perception, and images on TV screens. So I expect a lot more silly claims on this subject (on both sides).

I don't think you are right about the bankers and jobs argument. Yes, banks are not popular, but there's going to be a very steady flow of reasonable-sounding people, with no axe to grind, appearing on TV saying British jobs are at risk. Expect this to increase in intensity as soon as the deal is announced. Remember, Remain don't have to win this argument, they just need to sow doubt.

EU immigration has cost British working class people money through wage depression and unemployment for the last decade, its not nonsense

As for the terrorism fear, well who would have predicted what is going on in Germany now was remotely possible a year ago?

If the EU didn't exist, neither would the Jungle in Calais

Moses_

Polls still find Ed Milliband in lead and will be Prime Minister.

Oh?

TheScreamingEagles

Update on PB's favourite councillor and lover of a past Arsenal striker

Ex-councillor Brian Coleman was an important figure in the London Conservative Party before his expulsion in 2013 following his conviction for assaulting a café owner who had photographed his illegally parked car. He is still open to sharing his views with readers of the Camden New Journal.

He says he will vote for the Tory candidate Zac Goldsmith to succeed Boris Johnson as London Mayor, but does not much care for him because he exhibits “the arrogance that comes with huge wealth”. And he does not believe that Boris Johnson will ever be prime minister because he has “the attention span of a gnat”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andy-mcsmiths-diary-political-streakers-at-last-the-pledges-are-sort-of-kept-a6801456.html

taffys

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sean_F said:

So far, they haven't been doing a very good job (it doesn't mean they won't do so in the future). They either make silly claims about immigration and terrorism, or else they think that threats from bankers to move jobs abroad will sway the population (banks being about as popular as herpes at the moment).

The silly claims about immigration and terrorism come mainly from the Leave side, and the Remain side will want to neutralise them as much as they can since they are potent politically (albeit mostly nonsense). Neutralising them by pointing out dry facts, such as the fact that a million migrants in Germany are not about to turn up here, and have no right to come here, is not very effective since this is an argument about emotion, perception, and images on TV screens. So I expect a lot more silly claims on this subject (on both sides).

I don't think you are right about the bankers and jobs argument. Yes, banks are not popular, but there's going to be a very steady flow of reasonable-sounding people, with no axe to grind, appearing on TV saying British jobs are at risk. Expect this to increase in intensity as soon as the deal is announced. Remember, Remain don't have to win this argument, they just need to sow doubt.

The same people who said the EU was only an economic trade project? The same people who said it was vital to join the euro? The same ones who said Lisbon was only a tidying up of treaties??

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

That chart of which individuals would influence the choice is just weird. I don't know what it's measuring, but it certainly isn't measuring what it purports to measure: for example, Nicola Sturgeon more influential on Euurope than Nigel Farage?

You could argue that at the last general election, in England, Nicola Sturgeon was more influential than Nigel Farage

I think it might be more accurate to say that Alex Salmond was more influential that Farage. At anyrate that poster of Salmond with Miliband in his top pocket cost UKIP an awful lot of votes and may even have got Cameron his majority.

We also put Miliband in Sturgeon's pocket too.

http://cdn2.spectator.co.uk/files/2015/04/Sturgeon_Pocket_1200x6283-620x324.jpg

But I agree, the SNP angle turned the Tories into the largest party in a hung parliament into a Tory majority.

Though from my canvassing experiences it was Lab and Lib Dem voters who brought it up the most, unprompted.

And I can see no reason why it won't play just as well in in 2020 too. Unless the SNP suffers some unlikely-looking meltdown, then it is just as relevant to have Corbyn peering out of Sturgeons décolletage....

rcs1000

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

I wonder if there's a point at which Project Fear goes so obviously and overwhelmingly OTT that rather than voting Remain out of fear, they vote Leave out of anger for being taken for fools.

At least, that's what I hope will happen. I suspect some will talk Leave (but vote Remain) and never admit it, even after the event.

To be fair some more extreme Leavers (mostly on social media) are going full on Project Fear too and channelling the late Peter Griffiths.

A vote for remain is literally a vote for the EU forcing you to let immigrant rapists in your house.

It's a race to the bottom. But in a fear fight, Remain will win hands down.

A race to the bottom... phnar phnar...

Sean_F

WRT likelihood to vote, Ipsos Mori found Remain at 60% Leave at 28% among non-voters (who are included in this poll) 50% Remain to 40% Leave among those rating their likelihood to vote at 9 or 10 out of 10 (which is the likelihood Mori use for headline voting intentions). Among those saying certain to vote, Remain is at 49% to 42% for Leave.

In this poll then, Leave's advantage among older voters outweighs Remain's advantage among middle class voters.

Richard_Nabavi

isam said:

EU immigration has cost British working class people money through wage depression and unemployment for the last decade, its not nonsense

Arguably so, but that's not an argument to leave the EU if we remain signed up to freedom of movement, which looks extremely likely since the Leave side haven't developed any alternative. Nor is the migration crisis particularly relevant to EU immigration into the UK whether or not we do a deal not involving freedom of movement, but the Leave side try to elide the two.

rcs1000

NickPalmer said:

Think the chart has a typo - Remain on 54, not 55?

I think the finding that people are sure Remain will win has an insidious effect on Leave - it's discouraging well-known Tory MPs from breaking cover (there aren't many who cheerfully embrace lost causes), and that in turn is probably going to affect voting intention too. People who are sure that their cause is unpopular and think it's led by squabbling nonentities may be less likely to vote.

Decent poll for Labour, incidentally. Not actively beating each up every day may be a good idea.

On the other hand, I know one MP who is publically for Leave, but privately thinks it would be a mistake. His constituency chairman is so much an "Out-ter" that he fears for his job should he go for Remain.

There will - of course - be people who are privately for Out, but who fear for career advancement if they back it.

Basically, trust no one.

Richard_Nabavi

taffys said:

The same people who said the EU was only an economic trade project? The same people who said it was vital to join the euro? The same ones who said Lisbon was only a tidying up of treaties??

Possibly, but more importantly the employers of millions of people, the unions, the BBC etc etc

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

Update on PB's favourite councillor and lover of a past Arsenal striker

Ex-councillor Brian Coleman was an important figure in the London Conservative Party before his expulsion in 2013 following his conviction for assaulting a café owner who had photographed his illegally parked car. He is still open to sharing his views with readers of the Camden New Journal.

He says he will vote for the Tory candidate Zac Goldsmith to succeed Boris Johnson as London Mayor, but does not much care for him because he exhibits “the arrogance that comes with huge wealth”. And he does not believe that Boris Johnson will ever be prime minister because he has “the attention span of a gnat”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andy-mcsmiths-diary-political-streakers-at-last-the-pledges-are-sort-of-kept-a6801456.html

Pots and kettles come to mind.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Plato, agree on Twitter. I hope it doesn't collapse, the brevity suits me.