Tidbits from Paris. Just off to meet with the farmers
- French Ambassador and Gus O'Donnell had a conversation about 2 weeks ago in a message was passed to G.O.D. (Presumably to be passed to Cameron). Post Brexit, the EU intends to make an unconditional offer to Scotland to join the EU on the same terms (+the Euro) as the UK currently has. This *may* explain Cameron's sudden panic
- My Paris contact (extremely close to people who know Cameron very well) says that he is a dipshit. Utterly thick and disconnected from the detail, which is why he gets tripped up so often. I quote precisely
- France is terrified that the UK will leave, and result in them facing Germany alone. The French block (Spain/Portugal/Italy/Greece) has crumbled. Spain and Portugal are voting with Germany on everything to suck up. Italy is voting randomnly and unpredictably. Only Greece is reliably supporting France..and if you are in the same camp as Greece...
- Germany sees Brexit as a win/win. If the UK stays they have a net contributor and reliablish ally against France. If the UK leaves Western Europe looks more and more like the 4th Reich. The actual parallel this guy used was 1870...
Wow. That's fascinating.
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
"It’s not surprising, then, that the cabinet is split along class lines when it comes to the EU. A majority of those in favour — David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Hunt, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan — were privately educated, whereas most of those against — Iain Duncan Smith, Chris Grayling, Priti Patel — were state educated. Within the Conservative party, the schism over our membership of the EU is a proxy for the class antagonism between the different wings that’s always been present but rarely rises to the surface."
Trump earned 35 percent, followed by 19 percent for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 17 percent for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, 9 percent for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, 8 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and 7 percent for Ben Carson. Just 5 percent of voters say they remain undecided among that group.
@SamCoatesTimes: Following Times story about leaked Steve Baker email suggesting Vote Leave will evade referendum spending limits https://t.co/6dIXV3A7j0
it's interesting how "anti-British" the Dutch are in Ashcroft's polls. They are in the top tier, in terms of wanting us to shove off if we demand a better deal, or in terms of not caring if we go.
I don't think this is Anglophobia, I think this is resentment and envy. They wish they'd stayed out of the euro and Schengen, like us - and we are getting the emotional backlash. Cf the rise of Wilders.
The Netherlands has the highest approval of the Euro of any large economy in Europe. On the TNS polling from November, it's something like 70-15 on "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands". On the Piel subsample, even PVV supporters were 50 on the "Euro good for the Netherlands" question.
The large EU country with by far the highest Euro-scepticism is Italy.
Oh stop with your accurate facts. Only joking. So I was wrong about the euro, but I still think Schengen. Otherwise how do we explain this animosity from a country traditionally warm to the UK? Maybe it's just Dutch anality. That protestant sense all should play by the same rules.
Talking of facts this is a very cool, level-headed analysis of Brexit and its consequences for the British economy. Verdict: pretty much neutral.
Given the cultural and political benefits of Brexit, that = LEAVE.
It's funny, I discussed the Dutch thing a few days ago and posted the other questions from Piel. In summary, I think that the PVV has very different roots to the FN in France and UKIP in the UK. It is a reaction to what I call "too much tolerance of intolerance", and which is a particular issue in the Netherlands. In particular, I think it's interesting that - while the FN and UKIP opposed gay marriage - the PVV has been at the forefront of gay rights in the Netherlands and has called out the inherent homophobia of much of Islam.
I also pointed out that PVV supporters are massively more Europhile than even the Liberal Democrats
Remember Pim Fortuyn. The precursor to Wilders. Fortuyn's "Islamophobia" was closely linked to his gayness. He was first in defining the threat to Dutch liberalism.
He nearly became Dutch PM. I wish he'd succeeded.
Interesting that this happened in Holland but not, for instance, here. I wonder what that says, if anything, about the different types of liberalism in each country and/or, possibly the different left-wing parties.
Trump earned 35 percent, followed by 19 percent for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 17 percent for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, 9 percent for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, 8 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and 7 percent for Ben Carson. Just 5 percent of voters say they remain undecided among that group.
it's interesting how "anti-British" the Dutch are in Ashcroft's polls. They are in the top tier, in terms of wanting us to shove off if we demand a better deal, or in terms of not caring if we go.
I don't think this is Anglophobia, I think this is resentment and envy. They wish they'd stayed out of the euro and Schengen, like us - and we are getting the emotional backlash. Cf the rise of Wilders.
The Netherlands has the highest approval of the Euro of any large economy in Europe. On the TNS polling from November, it's something like 70-15 on "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands". On the Piel subsample, even PVV supporters were 50 on the "Euro good for the Netherlands" question.
The large EU country with by far the highest Euro-scepticism is Italy.
Oh stop with your accurate facts. Only joking. So I was wrong about the euro, but I still think Schengen. Otherwise how do we explain this animosity from a country traditionally warm to the UK? Maybe it's just Dutch anality. That protestant sense all should play by the same rules.
Talking of facts this is a very cool, level-headed analysis of Brexit and its consequences for the British economy. Verdict: pretty much neutral.
Given the cultural and political benefits of Brexit, that = LEAVE.
It's funny, I discussed the Dutch thing a few days ago and posted the other questions from Piel. In summary, I think that the PVV has very different roots to the FN in France and UKIP in the UK. It is a reaction to what I call "too much tolerance of intolerance", and which is a particular issue in the Netherlands. In particular, I think it's interesting that - while the FN and UKIP opposed gay marriage - the PVV has been at the forefront of gay rights in the Netherlands and has called out the inherent homophobia of much of Islam.
I also pointed out that PVV supporters are massively more Europhile than even the Liberal Democrats
Remember Pim Fortuyn. The precursor to Wilders. Fortuyn's "Islamophobia" was closely linked to his gayness. He was first in defining the threat to Dutch liberalism.
He nearly became Dutch PM. I wish he'd succeeded.
Had a nasty car crash or something didn't he? And Jorg Haider in Austria? The charismatic leaders of right wing populist movements tend to be very accident prone.
"It’s not surprising, then, that the cabinet is split along class lines when it comes to the EU. A majority of those in favour — David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Hunt, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan — were privately educated, whereas most of those against — Iain Duncan Smith, Chris Grayling, Priti Patel — were state educated. Within the Conservative party, the schism over our membership of the EU is a proxy for the class antagonism between the different wings that’s always been present but rarely rises to the surface."
"It’s not surprising, then, that the cabinet is split along class lines when it comes to the EU. A majority of those in favour — David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Hunt, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan — were privately educated, whereas most of those against — Iain Duncan Smith, Chris Grayling, Priti Patel — were state educated. Within the Conservative party, the schism over our membership of the EU is a proxy for the class antagonism between the different wings that’s always been present but rarely rises to the surface."
The FTSE is still worth only about half - in real terms - what it was at the '99 peak.
Therefore sell?
Should have done it years ago.
The meaningful questions are "have the profits and dividends of the companies in the UK risen over the last 17 years"? And "if so, have the rises beaten inflation?"
And finally, "is that likely to continue in the future, and is it worth paying the current price for the likely future dividend stream?"
Otherwise, you're simply farting around discussing the price at which other people exchanged pieces of paper.
It's like this: the Nikkei 225, the Japanese stock market index, peaked in 1990.
But the profits of Nikkei firms have increased four times since then. Dividends have increased seven fold.
The problem has not been the economic performance of the firms, but that people exchanged bits of paper for far too much money.
it's interesting how "anti-British" the Dutch are in Ashcroft's polls. They are in the top tier, in terms of wanting us to shove off if we demand a better deal, or in terms of not caring if we go.
I don't think this is Anglophobia, I think this is resentment and envy. They wish they'd stayed out of the euro and Schengen, like us - and we are getting the emotional backlash. Cf the rise of Wilders.
The Netherlands has the highest approval of the Euro of any large economy in Europe. On the TNS polling from November, it's something like 70-15 on "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands". On the Piel subsample, even PVV supporters were 50 on the "Euro good for the Netherlands" question.
The large EU country with by far the highest Euro-scepticism is Italy.
Oh stop with your accurate facts. Only joking. So I was wrong about the euro, but I still think Schengen. Otherwise how do we explain this animosity from a country traditionally warm to the UK? Maybe it's just Dutch anality. That protestant sense all should play by the same rules.
Talking of facts this is a very cool, level-headed analysis of Brexit and its consequences for the British economy. Verdict: pretty much neutral.
Given the cultural and political benefits of Brexit, that = LEAVE.
It's funny, I discussed the Dutch thing a few days ago and posted the other questions from Piel. In summary, I think that the PVV has very different roots to the FN in France and UKIP in the UK. It is a reaction to what I call "too much tolerance of intolerance", and which is a particular issue in the Netherlands. In particular, I think it's interesting that - while the FN and UKIP opposed gay marriage - the PVV has been at the forefront of gay rights in the Netherlands and has called out the inherent homophobia of much of Islam.
I also pointed out that PVV supporters are massively more Europhile than even the Liberal Democrats
Remember Pim Fortuyn. The precursor to Wilders. Fortuyn's "Islamophobia" was closely linked to his gayness. He was first in defining the threat to Dutch liberalism.
He nearly became Dutch PM. I wish he'd succeeded.
Had a nasty car crash or something didn't he? And Jorg Haider in Austria? The charismatic leaders of right wing populist movements tend to be very accident prone.
Lol. Fortyun's death certainly wasn't an accident!
Tidbits from Paris. Just off to meet with the farmers
- French Ambassador and Gus O'Donnell had a conversation about 2 weeks ago in a message was passed to G.O.D. (Presumably to be passed to Cameron). Post Brexit, the EU intends to make an unconditional offer to Scotland to join the EU on the same terms (+the Euro) as the UK currently has. This *may* explain Cameron's sudden panic
- My Paris contact (extremely close to people who know Cameron very well) says that he is a dipshit. Utterly thick and disconnected from the detail, which is why he gets tripped up so often. I quote precisely
- France is terrified that the UK will leave, and result in them facing Germany alone. The French block (Spain/Portugal/Italy/Greece) has crumbled. Spain and Portugal are voting with Germany on everything to suck up. Italy is voting randomnly and unpredictably. Only Greece is reliably supporting France..and if you are in the same camp as Greece...
- Germany sees Brexit as a win/win. If the UK stays they have a net contributor and reliablish ally against France. If the UK leaves Western Europe looks more and more like the 4th Reich. The actual parallel this guy used was 1870...
Wow. That's fascinating.
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
I too am happy to believe Charles. Co-incides with my long-distance observation too!
it's interesting how "anti-British" the Dutch are in Ashcroft's polls. They are in the top tier, in terms of wanting us to shove off if we demand a better deal, or in terms of not caring if we go.
I don't think this is Anglophobia, I think this is resentment and envy. They wish they'd stayed out of the euro and Schengen, like us - and we are getting the emotional backlash. Cf the rise of Wilders.
The Netherlands has the highest approval of the Euro of any large economy in Europe. On the TNS polling from November, it's something like 70-15 on "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands". On the Piel subsample, even PVV supporters were 50 on the "Euro good for the Netherlands" question.
The large EU country with by far the highest Euro-scepticism is Italy.
Oh stop with your accurate facts. Only joking. So I was wrong about the euro, but I still think Schengen. Otherwise how do we explain this animosity from a country traditionally warm to the UK? Maybe it's just Dutch anality. That protestant sense all should play by the same rules.
Talking of facts this is a very cool, level-headed analysis of Brexit and its consequences for the British economy. Verdict: pretty much neutral.
Given the cultural and political benefits of Brexit, that = LEAVE.
It's funny, I discussed the Dutch thing a few days ago and posted the other questions from Piel. In summary, I think that the PVV has very different roots to the FN in France and UKIP in the UK. It is a reaction to what I call "too much tolerance of intolerance", and which is a particular issue in the Netherlands. In particular, I think it's interesting that - while the FN and UKIP opposed gay marriage - the PVV has been at the forefront of gay rights in the Netherlands and has called out the inherent homophobia of much of Islam.
I also pointed out that PVV supporters are massively more Europhile than even the Liberal Democrats
Remember Pim Fortuyn. The precursor to Wilders. Fortuyn's "Islamophobia" was closely linked to his gayness. He was first in defining the threat to Dutch liberalism.
He nearly became Dutch PM. I wish he'd succeeded.
Had a nasty car crash or something didn't he? And Jorg Haider in Austria? The charismatic leaders of right wing populist movements tend to be very accident prone.
And don't forget the assasination attempt on Nigel Farage
Or the car crash of Eurosceptic liberal David Pehaligon Or the suspicious early death of Eurosceptic Labour leader Hugh Gaitskill
Tidbits from Paris. Just off to meet with the farmers
- French Ambassador and Gus O'Donnell had a conversation about 2 weeks ago in a message was passed to G.O.D. (Presumably to be passed to Cameron). Post Brexit, the EU intends to make an unconditional offer to Scotland to join the EU on the same terms (+the Euro) as the UK currently has. This *may* explain Cameron's sudden panic
- My Paris contact (extremely close to people who know Cameron very well) says that he is a dipshit. Utterly thick and disconnected from the detail, which is why he gets tripped up so often. I quote precisely
- France is terrified that the UK will leave, and result in them facing Germany alone. The French block (Spain/Portugal/Italy/Greece) has crumbled. Spain and Portugal are voting with Germany on everything to suck up. Italy is voting randomnly and unpredictably. Only Greece is reliably supporting France..and if you are in the same camp as Greece...
- Germany sees Brexit as a win/win. If the UK stays they have a net contributor and reliablish ally against France. If the UK leaves Western Europe looks more and more like the 4th Reich. The actual parallel this guy used was 1870...
Wow. That's fascinating.
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
And their conversation was just their gossip and opinion. Hearsay built on hearsay. O'Donnell has been mouthing off ever since he left his job. Before the general election he was making dire predictions about the Union and Scottish independence if the snp did well. He has an axe to grind and a low opinion of mps and pms, any pm.
Tidbits from Paris. Just off to meet with the farmers
- French Ambassador and Gus O'Donnell had a conversation about 2 weeks ago in a message was passed to G.O.D. (Presumably to be passed to Cameron). Post Brexit, the EU intends to make an unconditional offer to Scotland to join the EU on the same terms (+the Euro) as the UK currently has. This *may* explain Cameron's sudden panic
- My Paris contact (extremely close to people who know Cameron very well) says that he is a dipshit. Utterly thick and disconnected from the detail, which is why he gets tripped up so often. I quote precisely
- France is terrified that the UK will leave, and result in them facing Germany alone. The French block (Spain/Portugal/Italy/Greece) has crumbled. Spain and Portugal are voting with Germany on everything to suck up. Italy is voting randomnly and unpredictably. Only Greece is reliably supporting France..and if you are in the same camp as Greece...
- Germany sees Brexit as a win/win. If the UK stays they have a net contributor and reliablish ally against France. If the UK leaves Western Europe looks more and more like the 4th Reich. The actual parallel this guy used was 1870...
Wow. That's fascinating.
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
And their conversation was just their gossip and opinion. Hearsay built on hearsay. O'Donnell has been mouthing off ever since he left his job. Before the general election he was making dire predictions about the Union and Scottish independence if the snp did well. He has an axe to grind and a low opinion of mps and pms, any pm.
"It’s not surprising, then, that the cabinet is split along class lines when it comes to the EU. A majority of those in favour — David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Hunt, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan — were privately educated, whereas most of those against — Iain Duncan Smith, Chris Grayling, Priti Patel — were state educated. Within the Conservative party, the schism over our membership of the EU is a proxy for the class antagonism between the different wings that’s always been present but rarely rises to the surface."
How is that any different to Labour in the seventies? And yet by the nineties and noughties the Labour Party was pretty united and we spoke of Tory divisions.
The Tory party has been moving in an increasingly eurosceptic direction for over 20 years. Given the changes on the horizon for the EU, and what we know of UK politics at the moment, i can't see that changing.
Who saw it changing last time either? But change it did.
The changes I see coming for the EU move the EU more in the Tory direction than the Delors/Labour direction that caused the shift last time but the future is not certain.
The change in the Tory party may be a softening of attitudes towards immigration from social conservatism, depending on who wins the next leadership election.
Given where the country is at, I think that's crazy, but I'm astonished at how many Tories I meet who have very liberal views on it and are dismissive of controls.
Like me .
The idea of closed shops to boost wages is a left-wing antiquated idea to me not a right-wing one.
And the idea of importing millions of immigrants to keep wages down is....right wing??? left wing??? ever voted for by anybody???
The idea of free trade and letting the market take care of it is right wing to me.
No, it's a liberal one.
The right wing case places minimisation of social disruption above the benefits of the unfettered market.
The FTSE is still worth only about half - in real terms - what it was at the '99 peak.
Therefore sell?
Should have done it years ago.
The meaningful questions are "have the profits and dividends of the companies in the UK risen over the last 17 years"? And "if so, have the rises beaten inflation?"
And finally, "is that likely to continue in the future, and is it worth paying the current price for the likely future dividend stream?"
Otherwise, you're simply farting around discussing the price at which other people exchanged pieces of paper.
It's like this: the Nikkei 225, the Japanese stock market index, peaked in 1990.
But the profits of Nikkei firms have increased four times since then. Dividends have increased seven fold.
The problem has not been the economic performance of the firms, but that people exchanged bits of paper for far too much money.
There is another problem, is the long term decline of the share price being offset by the long term rise of dividends?
Lets say you buy stocks worth 100 pounds, it provides dividends of 1 pound per year, the share price falls by 30% in 10 years and stays there. Even if the dividends are doubled to 2 pounds per year immediately on purchase, you would need 15 years to make a profit.
Mr. 1000, Theo van Gogh also got killed on similar grounds (though he was a film director).
Although they didn't bother to pretend that was an accident; that was more of a warning to other film makers not to produce anti-immigration, anti-EU propaganda
@SamCoatesTimes: Here is Steve Baker letter triggering police complaint over suggestions Vote Leave want to dodge legal spend limits https://t.co/Fx9l2kMAMp
Tidbits from Paris. Just off to meet with the farmers
- French Ambassador and Gus O'Donnell had a conversation about 2 weeks ago in a message was passed to G.O.D. (Presumably to be passed to Cameron). Post Brexit, the EU intends to make an unconditional offer to Scotland to join the EU on the same terms (+the Euro) as the UK currently has. This *may* explain Cameron's sudden panic
- My Paris contact (extremely close to people who know Cameron very well) says that he is a dipshit. Utterly thick and disconnected from the detail, which is why he gets tripped up so often. I quote precisely
- France is terrified that the UK will leave, and result in them facing Germany alone. The French block (Spain/Portugal/Italy/Greece) has crumbled. Spain and Portugal are voting with Germany on everything to suck up. Italy is voting randomnly and unpredictably. Only Greece is reliably supporting France..and if you are in the same camp as Greece...
- Germany sees Brexit as a win/win. If the UK stays they have a net contributor and reliablish ally against France. If the UK leaves Western Europe looks more and more like the 4th Reich. The actual parallel this guy used was 1870...
Wow. That's fascinating.
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
And their conversation was just their gossip and opinion. Hearsay built on hearsay. O'Donnell has been mouthing off ever since he left his job. Before the general election he was making dire predictions about the Union and Scottish independence if the snp did well. He has an axe to grind and a low opinion of mps and pms, any pm.
Christ, do you ever have anything positive to contribute ?
Tidbits from Paris. Just off to meet with the farmers
- French Ambassador and Gus O'Donnell had a conversation about 2 weeks ago in a message was passed to G.O.D. (Presumably to be passed to Cameron). Post Brexit, the EU intends to make an unconditional offer to Scotland to join the EU on the same terms (+the Euro) as the UK currently has. This *may* explain Cameron's sudden panic
- My Paris contact (extremely close to people who know Cameron very well) says that he is a dipshit. Utterly thick and disconnected from the detail, which is why he gets tripped up so often. I quote precisely
- France is terrified that the UK will leave, and result in them facing Germany alone. The French block (Spain/Portugal/Italy/Greece) has crumbled. Spain and Portugal are voting with Germany on everything to suck up. Italy is voting randomnly and unpredictably. Only Greece is reliably supporting France..and if you are in the same camp as Greece...
- Germany sees Brexit as a win/win. If the UK stays they have a net contributor and reliablish ally against France. If the UK leaves Western Europe looks more and more like the 4th Reich. The actual parallel this guy used was 1870...
Wow. That's fascinating.
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
And their conversation was just their gossip and opinion. Hearsay built on hearsay. O'Donnell has been mouthing off ever since he left his job. Before the general election he was making dire predictions about the Union and Scottish independence if the snp did well. He has an axe to grind and a low opinion of mps and pms, any pm.
"It’s not surprising, then, that the cabinet is split along class lines when it comes to the EU. A majority of those in favour — David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Hunt, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan — were privately educated, whereas most of those against — Iain Duncan Smith, Chris Grayling, Priti Patel — were state educated. Within the Conservative party, the schism over our membership of the EU is a proxy for the class antagonism between the different wings that’s always been present but rarely rises to the surface."
Lets say you buy stocks worth 100 pounds, it provides dividends of 1 pound per year, the share price falls by 30% in 10 years and stays there. Even if the dividends are doubled to 2 pounds per year immediately on purchase, you would need 15 years to make a profit.
That's why the only stock I've bought outright so far was GSK.L at 1255 when it had something mad like almost a 7% divi yield.
Tidbits from Paris. Just off to meet with the farmers
- French Ambassador and Gus O'Donnell had a conversation about 2 weeks ago in a message was passed to G.O.D. (Presumably to be passed to Cameron). Post Brexit, the EU intends to make an unconditional offer to Scotland to join the EU on the same terms (+the Euro) as the UK currently has. This *may* explain Cameron's sudden panic
- My Paris contact (extremely close to people who know Cameron very well) says that he is a dipshit. Utterly thick and disconnected from the detail, which is why he gets tripped up so often. I quote precisely
- France is terrified that the UK will leave, and result in them facing Germany alone. The French block (Spain/Portugal/Italy/Greece) has crumbled. Spain and Portugal are voting with Germany on everything to suck up. Italy is voting randomnly and unpredictably. Only Greece is reliably supporting France..and if you are in the same camp as Greece...
- Germany sees Brexit as a win/win. If the UK stays they have a net contributor and reliablish ally against France. If the UK leaves Western Europe looks more and more like the 4th Reich. The actual parallel this guy used was 1870...
Wow. That's fascinating.
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
And their conversation was just their gossip and opinion. Hearsay built on hearsay. O'Donnell has been mouthing off ever since he left his job. Before the general election he was making dire predictions about the Union and Scottish independence if the snp did well. He has an axe to grind and a low opinion of mps and pms, any pm.
Christ, do you ever have anything positive to contribute ?
Easier to scroll straight past than to try and read his/her ramblings.
Mr. 1000, Theo van Gogh also got killed on similar grounds (though he was a film director).
Although they didn't bother to pretend that was an accident; that was more of a warning to other film makers not to produce anti-immigration, anti-EU propaganda
He was killed by an Islamist who didn't like the film he produced, for which Ayan Hirsi Ali wrote the script, about Islam's treatment of women. It was more akin to the Charlie Hebdo killings.
It was a warning not to criticise Islam. And there was a specific threat made to Hirsi Ali in the note the killer left pinned to Van Gogh's body.
it's interesting how "anti-British" the Dutch are in Ashcroft's polls. They are in the top tier, in terms of wanting us to shove off if we demand a better deal, or in terms of not caring if we go.
I don't think this is Anglophobia, I think this is resentment and envy. They wish they'd stayed out of the euro and Schengen, like us - and we are getting the emotional backlash. Cf the rise of Wilders.
The Netherlands has the highest approval of the Euro of any large economy in Europe. On the TNS polling from November, it's something like 70-15 on "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands". On the Piel subsample, even PVV supporters were 50 on the "Euro good for the Netherlands" question.
The large EU country with by far the highest Euro-scepticism is Italy.
Oh stop with your accurate facts. Only joking. So I was wrong about the euro, but I still think Schengen. Otherwise how do we explain this animosity from a country traditionally warm to the UK? Maybe it's just Dutch anality. That protestant sense all should play by the same rules.
Talking of facts this is a very cool, level-headed analysis of Brexit and its consequences for the British economy. Verdict: pretty much neutral.
Given the cultural and political benefits of Brexit, that = LEAVE.
It's funny, I discussed the Dutch thing a few days ago and posted the other questions from Piel. In summary, I think that the PVV has very different roots to the FN in France and UKIP in the UK. It is a reaction to what I call "too much tolerance of intolerance", and which is a particular issue in the Netherlands. In particular, I think it's interesting that - while the FN and UKIP opposed gay marriage - the PVV has been at the forefront of gay rights in the Netherlands and has called out the inherent homophobia of much of Islam.
I also pointed out that PVV supporters are massively more Europhile than even the Liberal Democrats
Remember Pim Fortuyn. The precursor to Wilders. Fortuyn's "Islamophobia" was closely linked to his gayness. He was first in defining the threat to Dutch liberalism.
He nearly became Dutch PM. I wish he'd succeeded.
Had a nasty car crash or something didn't he? And Jorg Haider in Austria? The charismatic leaders of right wing populist movements tend to be very accident prone.
And don't forget the assasination attempt on Nigel Farage
Or the car crash of Eurosceptic liberal David Pehaligon Or the suspicious early death of Eurosceptic Labour leader Hugh Gaitskill
Sanders leads in 2, with another 2 being close. They didn't poll Colorado or Minnesota. Actually 2 of them aren't Super Tuesday states either.
HRC's minority firewall holds. Sanders' strength really does seem to be Greater New England.
No idea what will happen in Nevada, the party machine will 'influence' results and I suspect Mexicans don't have a tradition of caucusing given they tend not to vote anyway (or register to vote for that matter)?
Mr. 1000, Theo van Gogh also got killed on similar grounds (though he was a film director).
Although they didn't bother to pretend that was an accident; that was more of a warning to other film makers not to produce anti-immigration, anti-EU propaganda
He was killed by an Islamist who didn't like the film he produced, for which Ayan Hirsi Ali wrote the script, about Islam's treatment of women. It was more akin to the Charlie Hebdo killings.
It was a warning not to criticise Islam. And there was a specific threat made to Hirsi Ali in the note the killer left pinned to Van Gogh's body.
Sky news George Gaynes - best known for playing the bungling Commandant Lassard in the Police Academy films - has died aged 98.
He had a commanding voice and presence. Just reading his biography a bit, if Carter hadn't boycotted the Moscow Olympics he would have probably become an olympic medalist for kayaking, that's something I didn't knew before.
Tidbits from Paris. Just off to meet with the farmers
- French Ambassador and Gus O'Donnell had a conversation about 2 weeks ago in a message was passed to G.O.D. (Presumably to be passed to Cameron). Post Brexit, the EU intends to make an unconditional offer to Scotland to join the EU on the same terms (+the Euro) as the UK currently has. This *may* explain Cameron's sudden panic
- My Paris contact (extremely close to people who know Cameron very well) says that he is a dipshit. Utterly thick and disconnected from the detail, which is why he gets tripped up so often. I quote precisely
- France is terrified that the UK will leave, and result in them facing Germany alone. The French block (Spain/Portugal/Italy/Greece) has crumbled. Spain and Portugal are voting with Germany on everything to suck up. Italy is voting randomnly and unpredictably. Only Greece is reliably supporting France..and if you are in the same camp as Greece...
- Germany sees Brexit as a win/win. If the UK stays they have a net contributor and reliablish ally against France. If the UK leaves Western Europe looks more and more like the 4th Reich. The actual parallel this guy used was 1870...
Wow. That's fascinating.
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
And their conversation was just their gossip and opinion. Hearsay built on hearsay. O'Donnell has been mouthing off ever since he left his job. Before the general election he was making dire predictions about the Union and Scottish independence if the snp did well. He has an axe to grind and a low opinion of mps and pms, any pm.
Christ, do you ever have anything positive to contribute ?
Easier to scroll straight past than to try and read his/her ramblings.
it's interesting how "anti-British" the Dutch are in Ashcroft's polls. They are in the top tier, in terms of wanting us to shove off if we demand a better deal, or in terms of not caring if we go.
I don't think this is Anglophobia, I think this is resentment and envy. They wish they'd stayed out of the euro and Schengen, like us - and we are getting the emotional backlash. Cf the rise of Wilders.
The Netherlands has the highest approval of the Euro of any large economy in Europe. On the TNS polling from November, it's something like 70-15 on "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands". On the Piel subsample, even PVV supporters were 50 on the "Euro good for the Netherlands" question.
The large EU country with by far the highest Euro-scepticism is Italy.
Oh stop with your accurate facts. Only joking. So I was wrong about the euro, but I still think Schengen. Otherwise how do we explain this animosity from a country traditionally warm to the UK? Maybe it's just Dutch anality. That protestant sense all should play by the same rules.
Talking of facts this is a very cool, level-headed analysis of Brexit and its consequences for the British economy. Verdict: pretty much neutral.
Given the cultural and political benefits of Brexit, that = LEAVE.
It's funny, I discussed the Dutch thing a few days ago and posted the other questions from Piel. In een at the forefront of gay rights in the Netherlands and has called out the inherent homophobia of much of Islam.
I also pointed out that PVV supporters are massively more Europhile than even the Liberal Democrats
Remember Pim Fortuyn. The precursor to Wilders. Fortuyn's "Islamophobia" was closely linked to his gayness. He was first in defining the threat to Dutch liberalism.
He nearly became Dutch PM. I wish he'd succeeded.
Had a nasty car crash or something didn't he? And Jorg Haider in Austria? The charismatic leaders of right wing populist movements tend to be very accident prone.
And don't forget the assasination attempt on Nigel Farage
Or the car crash of Eurosceptic liberal David Pehaligon Or the suspicious early death of Eurosceptic Labour leader Hugh Gaitskill
Sky news George Gaynes - best known for playing the bungling Commandant Lassard in the Police Academy films - has died aged 98.
He had a commanding voice and presence. Just reading his biography a bit, if Carter hadn't boycotted the Moscow Olympics he would have probably become an olympic medalist for kayaking, that's something I didn't knew before.
Given that he was 62 at the time, that would have been some going.
it's interesting how "anti-British" the Dutch are in Ashcroft's polls. They are in the top tier, in terms of wanting us to shove off if we demand a better deal, or in terms of not caring if we go.
I don't think this is Anglophobia, I think this is resentment and envy. They wish they'd stayed out of the euro and Schengen, like us - and we are getting the emotional backlash. Cf the rise of Wilders.
The Netherlands has the highest approval of the Euro of any large economy in Europe. On the TNS polling from November, it's something like 70-15 on "The Euro has been good for the Netherlands". On the Piel subsample, even PVV supporters were 50 on the "Euro good for the Netherlands" question.
The large EU country with by far the highest Euro-scepticism is Italy.
Oh stop with your accurate facts. Only joking. So I was wrong about the euro, but I still think Schengen. Otherwise how do we explain this animosity from a country traditionally warm to the UK? Maybe it's just Dutch anality. That protestant sense all should play by the same rules.
Talking of facts this is a very cool, level-headed analysis of Brexit and its consequences for the British economy. Verdict: pretty much neutral.
Given the cultural and political benefits of Brexit, that = LEAVE.
It's funny, I discussed the Dutch thing a few days ago and posted the other questions from Piel. In een at the forefront of gay rights in the Netherlands and has called out the inherent homophobia of much of Islam.
I also pointed out that PVV supporters are massively more Europhile than even the Liberal Democrats
Remember Pim Fortuyn. The precursor to Wilders. Fortuyn's "Islamophobia" was closely linked to his gayness. He was first in defining the threat to Dutch liberalism.
He nearly became Dutch PM. I wish he'd succeeded.
Had a nasty car crash or something didn't he? And Jorg Haider in Austria? The charismatic leaders of right wing populist movements tend to be very accident prone.
And don't forget the assasination attempt on Nigel Farage
Or the car crash of Eurosceptic liberal David Pehaligon Or the suspicious early death of Eurosceptic Labour leader Hugh Gaitskill
I won't. Nor the blowing up of Airey Neave.
INLA murdered Airey Neave
I know. I just have suspicions about on who's behalf.
@Cyclefree - I have just purchased Democracy in Europe which you recommended earlier on today.
I thoroughly recommend The Tainted Source - The Undemocratic Origins of the European Idea by John Laughland. It is sometimes easy to forget it was published in 1997 as much of what is discussed is still true today. I particularly like the following:
Faced with declining competitiveness, low growth, mass unemployment, and sclerotic and often corrupt political structures, European countries are undertaking to reproduce their present systems at supranational level rather than to reform them at home. Similarly, instead of asking how the world's monetary system as a whole might be reformed to render the globalisation of the economy fairer and freer, they prefer to pursue an exclusive intra-European project who effect will be to close the continent in on itself.
Oh stop with your accurate facts. Only joking. So I was wrong about the euro, but I still think Schengen. Otherwise how do we explain this animosity from a country traditionally warm to the UK? Maybe it's just Dutch anality. That protestant sense all should play by the same rules.
You're moderately right about the Dutch view of Schengen. In this poll, taken last year after the wave of deaths of migrants trying to get into Italy,
they were more pro-Schengen than Britain or (especially) France but less so than Italy or Germany. Overall, 59% favoured "provisional" reestablishment of border controls, vs 41% who disagreed. Might have changed since then, of course.
Why the Brits felt so strongly is interesting - presumably a spinoff from general unease about immigration. I'm surprised that most people in Britain knew what Schengen was.
The poll (same page) also showed the Dutch much less tough on stronger border controls against African migrants and more willing (47%) to accept a bigger share of migrants landing in Italy. Germany was massively keen to accept a bigger share of migrants (69%); the Brits weren't (32%).
Tidbits from Paris. Just off to meet with the farmers
- French Ambassador and Gus O'Donnell had a conversation about 2 weeks ago in a message was passed to G.O.D. (Presumably to be passed to Cameron). Post Brexit, the EU intends to make an unconditional offer to Scotland to join the EU on the same terms (+the Euro) as the UK currently has. This *may* explain Cameron's sudden panic
- My Paris contact (extremely close to people who know Cameron very well) says that he is a dipshit. Utterly thick and disconnected from the detail, which is why he gets tripped up so often. I quote precisely
- France is terrified that the UK will leave, and result in them facing Germany alone. The French block (Spain/Portugal/Italy/Greece) has crumbled. Spain and Portugal are voting with Germany on everything to suck up. Italy is voting randomnly and unpredictably. Only Greece is reliably supporting France..and if you are in the same camp as Greece...
- Germany sees Brexit as a win/win. If the UK stays they have a net contributor and reliablish ally against France. If the UK leaves Western Europe looks more and more like the 4th Reich. The actual parallel this guy used was 1870...
Wow. That's fascinating.
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
And their conversation was just their gossip and opinion. Hearsay built on hearsay. O'Donnell has been mouthing off ever since he left his job. Before the general election he was making dire predictions about the Union and Scottish independence if the snp did well. He has an axe to grind and a low opinion of mps and pms, any pm.
Christ, do you ever have anything positive to contribute ?
Christ you mean you and everyone else is positive? Pardon me for not taking too much notice of sir humphreys agreeing with each other.
Sky news George Gaynes - best known for playing the bungling Commandant Lassard in the Police Academy films - has died aged 98.
He had a commanding voice and presence. Just reading his biography a bit, if Carter hadn't boycotted the Moscow Olympics he would have probably become an olympic medalist for kayaking, that's something I didn't knew before.
Given that he was 62 at the time, that would have been some going.
Sanders leads in 2, with another 2 being close. They didn't poll Colorado or Minnesota. Actually 2 of them aren't Super Tuesday states either.
HRC's minority firewall holds. Sanders' strength really does seem to be Greater New England.
No idea what will happen in Nevada, the party machine will 'influence' results and I suspect Mexicans don't have a tradition of caucusing given they tend not to vote anyway (or register to vote for that matter)?
Here's the thing, Hillary's 2016 primary map is Obama's primary map from 2008. However Sanders is much stronger in the mountain west than Hillary was in 2008.
About Nevada, turnout is very poor, usually 3%, further the democrats don't publish voting results, only delegates won like in Iowa. And like in Iowa Sanders may have won the popular vote but Hillary won all the coin tosses for delegates.
Further, the delegates are assigned by geographical criteria not by population, so that even the ghost towns in the desert get a minimum of delegates, Las Vegas and Reno get less delegates per voter than the ghost towns where no one lives, Obama used that trick to win Nevada with fewer votes than Hillary in 2008.
On top of that unlike in Iowa where if they are tied in districts there is a coin toss, in Nevada they play cards to determine the winner in a tie (it's Nevada, what did you expect?), so expect a lot of card cheating too.
Caucuses are the worst electoral contests in the world.
I know. I just have suspicions about on who's behalf.
Politician Tony Benn records in his diary (17 February 1981) that a journalist from the New Statesman, Duncan Campbell, told him that he had received information from an intelligence agent two years previously that Neave had planned to have Benn assassinated if a Labour government was elected, James Callaghan resigned and there was a possibility that Benn might be elected party leader in his place. Campbell claimed that the agent was ready to give his name and the New Statesman was going to print the story. Benn, however, discounted the validity of the story and wrote in his diary: "No one will believe for a moment that Airey Neave would have done such a thing".[22] The magazine printed the story on 20 February 1981, naming the agent as Lee Tracey. Tracey claimed to have met Neave and was asked to join a team of intelligence and security specialists which would "make sure Benn was stopped". Tracey planned a second meeting with Neave but Neave was killed before they could meet again.[23]
BBC really is in full propaganda mode. Nothing about the crackdown on the Kurds. Nothing about Turkey shelling the Syrian Kurds over the border. Turkey facing security threats from ISIS? The group they foster, allow over the border, buy oil (and worse) from? Since when does NATO come with the responsibility to schill for its grottier members?
"It’s not surprising, then, that the cabinet is split along class lines when it comes to the EU. A majority of those in favour — David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Hunt, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan — were privately educated, whereas most of those against — Iain Duncan Smith, Chris Grayling, Priti Patel — were state educated. Within the Conservative party, the schism over our membership of the EU is a proxy for the class antagonism between the different wings that’s always been present but rarely rises to the surface."
Sky news George Gaynes - best known for playing the bungling Commandant Lassard in the Police Academy films - has died aged 98.
He had a commanding voice and presence. Just reading his biography a bit, if Carter hadn't boycotted the Moscow Olympics he would have probably become an olympic medalist for kayaking, that's something I didn't knew before.
Given that he was 62 at the time, that would have been some going.
@Cyclefree - I have just purchased Democracy in Europe which you recommended earlier on today.
I thoroughly recommend The Tainted Source - The Undemocratic Origins of the European Idea by John Laughland. It is sometimes easy to forget it was published in 1997 as much of what is discussed is still true today. I particularly like the following:
Faced with declining competitiveness, low growth, mass unemployment, and sclerotic and often corrupt political structures, European countries are undertaking to reproduce their present systems at supranational level rather than to reform them at home. Similarly, instead of asking how the world's monetary system as a whole might be reformed to render the globalisation of the economy fairer and freer, they prefer to pursue an exclusive intra-European project who effect will be to close the continent in on itself.
Yep, I'm an outer. The EU is a monster that must be destroyed.
@Cyclefree - I have just purchased Democracy in Europe which you recommended earlier on today.
I thoroughly recommend The Tainted Source - The Undemocratic Origins of the European Idea by John Laughland. It is sometimes easy to forget it was published in 1997 as much of what is discussed is still true today. I particularly like the following:
Faced with declining competitiveness, low growth, mass unemployment, and sclerotic and often corrupt political structures, European countries are undertaking to reproduce their present systems at supranational level rather than to reform them at home. Similarly, instead of asking how the world's monetary system as a whole might be reformed to render the globalisation of the economy fairer and freer, they prefer to pursue an exclusive intra-European project who effect will be to close the continent in on itself.
I hope you find it interesting. I've got his "The Origins of Western Liberalism" on my rather large pile of books to read.
I've read the Laughland book but it was some time ago so cannot, to be honest, remember very much about it, though I do recall a lot about customs unions and fiat currencies.
This bit explains why I'm voting Remain, and why I don't think the EEA route is worth the candle (given that in addition it wouldn't help on migration):
Overall, financial services have more to lose immediately after a European Union exit than most other sectors of the economy. Even in the best case scenario [an EEA-style deal], in which passporting rights were preserved, the United Kingdom would still lose influence over the single market’s rules. The City would probably be hurt in the short term, but it would not spell disaster. The City’s competitive advantage is founded on more than just unfettered access to the single market. A European Union exit would enable the United Kingdom to broker trade deals with emerging markets that could pay dividends for the financial services sector in the long run.
It's a trade-off of a very likely loss against a speculative gain, which in any case might be attainable anyway - we can extend our trade in financial services with non-EU countries if we stay in.
Tidbits from Paris. Just off to meet with the farmers
- French Ambassador and Gus O'Donnell had a conversation about 2 weeks ago in a message was passed to G.O.D. (Presumably to be passed to Cameron). Post Brexit, the EU intends to make an unconditional offer to Scotland to join the EU on the same terms (+the Euro) as the UK currently has. This *may* explain Cameron's sudden panic
- My Paris contact (extremely close to people who know Cameron very well) says that he is a dipshit. Utterly thick and disconnected from the detail, which is why he gets tripped up so often. I quote precisely
- France is terrified that the UK will leave, and result in them facing Germany alone. The French block (Spain/Portugal/Italy/Greece) has crumbled. Spain and Portugal are voting with Germany on everything to suck up. Italy is voting randomnly and unpredictably. Only Greece is reliably supporting France..and if you are in the same camp as Greece...
- Germany sees Brexit as a win/win. If the UK stays they have a net contributor and reliablish ally against France. If the UK leaves Western Europe looks more and more like the 4th Reich. The actual parallel this guy used was 1870...
Wow. That's fascinating.
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
I too am happy to believe Charles. Co-incides with my long-distance observation too!
I believe the conversation happened as reported. I don't know the motivation - but (even though Ambassadors gossip worse than old women) it feels like an official backchannel communication
"It’s not surprising, then, that the cabinet is split along class lines when it comes to the EU. A majority of those in favour — David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Hunt, Amber Rudd, Nicky Morgan — were privately educated, whereas most of those against — Iain Duncan Smith, Chris Grayling, Priti Patel — were state educated. Within the Conservative party, the schism over our membership of the EU is a proxy for the class antagonism between the different wings that’s always been present but rarely rises to the surface."
Just seen the unemployment figures. Can't help but wonder how low unemployment would be if we had not had massive European migration in the past decades.....
Tidbits from Paris. Just off to meet with the farmers
- French Ambassador and Gus O'Donnell had a conversation about 2 weeks ago in a message was passed to G.O.D. (Presumably to be passed to Cameron). Post Brexit, the EU intends to make an unconditional offer to Scotland to join the EU on the same terms (+the Euro) as the UK currently has. This *may* explain Cameron's sudden panic
- My Paris contact (extremely close to people who know Cameron very well) says that he is a dipshit. Utterly thick and disconnected from the detail, which is why he gets tripped up so often. I quote precisely
- France is terrified that the UK will leave, and result in them facing Germany alone. The French block (Spain/Portugal/Italy/Greece) has crumbled. Spain and Portugal are voting with Germany on everything to suck up. Italy is voting randomnly and unpredictably. Only Greece is reliably supporting France..and if you are in the same camp as Greece...
- Germany sees Brexit as a win/win. If the UK stays they have a net contributor and reliablish ally against France. If the UK leaves Western Europe looks more and more like the 4th Reich. The actual parallel this guy used was 1870...
Wow. That's fascinating.
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
I too am happy to believe Charles. Co-incides with my long-distance observation too!
I believe the conversation happened as reported. I don't know the motivation - but (even though Ambassadors gossip worse than old women) it feels like an official backchannel communication
The way things are working out in the POTUS market it's Trump v Clinton making the 4-6 Democrat still value in the winners market.Bernie's vote will transfer to Hilary's but it's the demographics of the US which means GOP is running with its hands behind its back.The White Supremacist,KKK,approach will only take you so far as well insulting,women,disabled people and any "other" to "other". the 4-5 was better,the 4-6 is still good.
Tidbits from Paris. Just off to meet with the farmers
- French Ambassador and Gus O'Donnell had a conversation about 2 weeks ago in a message was passed to G.O.D. (Presumably to be passed to Cameron). Post Brexit, the EU intends to make an unconditional offer to Scotland to join the EU on the same terms (+the Euro) as the UK currently has. This *may* explain Cameron's sudden panic
- My Paris contact (extremely close to people who know Cameron very well) says that he is a dipshit. Utterly thick and disconnected from the detail, which is why he gets tripped up so often. I quote precisely
- France is terrified that the UK will leave, and result in them facing Germany alone. The French block (Spain/Portugal/Italy/Greece) has crumbled. Spain and Portugal are voting with Germany on everything to suck up. Italy is voting randomnly and unpredictably. Only Greece is reliably supporting France..and if you are in the same camp as Greece...
- Germany sees Brexit as a win/win. If the UK stays they have a net contributor and reliablish ally against France. If the UK leaves Western Europe looks more and more like the 4th Reich. The actual parallel this guy used was 1870...
Wow. That's fascinating.
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
And their conversation was just their gossip and opinion. Hearsay built on hearsay. O'Donnell has been mouthing off ever since he left his job. Before the general election he was making dire predictions about the Union and Scottish independence if the snp did well. He has an axe to grind and a low opinion of mps and pms, any pm.
Just to be clear, the only part of my post attributed to the Ambassdaor/G.O.D. Was the Scottish point. Everything else was separate.
You don't have to believe me. I think the conversation happened, my source thougt it was a real conversation, not speculation. The Ambassador would have known a comment like that would have been reported back to the authorities. It feels like a back channel.
Just seen the unemployment figures. Can't help but wonder how low unemployment would be if we had not had massive European migration in the past decades.....
.. and how much higher wages might be at the lowest levels
Then again, big corporates wouldn't have such huge profit margins
BBC questioning the quality of jobs being created. I don't remember them questioning the quality of (public sector) jobs being 'created' by Labour 15 years ago.
Just seen the unemployment figures. Can't help but wonder how low unemployment would be if we had not had massive European migration in the past decades.....
It's entirely possible that unemployment would be higher.
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
And their conversation was just their gossip and opinion. Hearsay built on hearsay. O'Donnell has been mouthing off ever since he left his job. Before the general election he was making dire predictions about the Union and Scottish independence if the snp did well. He has an axe to grind and a low opinion of mps and pms, any pm.
Just to be clear, the only part of my post attributed to the Ambassdaor/G.O.D. Was the Scottish point. Everything else was separate.
You don't have to believe me. I think the conversation happened, my source thougt it was a real conversation, not speculation. The Ambassador would have known a comment like that would have been reported back to the authorities. It feels like a back channel.
BBC questioning the quality of jobs being created. I don't remember them questioning the quality of (public sector) jobs being 'created' by Labour 15 years ago.
Gah. This really annoys me. As well as being balls (most new jobs are full time) It feeds a basic misapprehension within society (in my experience public sector society) that everyone is on a zero hours contract, and so that unemployment is better than underemployment.
An NHS rabble rousing friend of my other half is always morning about zero hours jobs - it turns out it was because her daughter had one. I asked her to guess how many people were on zero hours - she overestimate by about 1000%
This bit explains why I'm voting Remain, and why I don't think the EEA route is worth the candle (given that in addition it wouldn't help on migration):
Overall, financial services have more to lose immediately after a European Union exit than most other sectors of the economy. Even in the best case scenario [an EEA-style deal], in which passporting rights were preserved, the United Kingdom would still lose influence over the single market’s rules. The City would probably be hurt in the short term, but it would not spell disaster. The City’s competitive advantage is founded on more than just unfettered access to the single market. A European Union exit would enable the United Kingdom to broker trade deals with emerging markets that could pay dividends for the financial services sector in the long run.
It's a trade-off of a very likely loss against a speculative gain, which in any case might be attainable anyway - we can extend our trade in financial services with non-EU countries if we stay in.
But what you are excluding is, if we remain in, any attempts by the Eurozone to migrate activities out of London. I see a real risk of permanent damage from being in vs temporary damage with future upside from Leave.
Just seen the unemployment figures. Can't help but wonder how low unemployment would be if we had not had massive European migration in the past decades.....
It's entirely possible that unemployment would be higher.
The problem we have is getting motivated workers off benefits and we have just seen the howls from various quarters when the govt tried to push them in that durection. The increase in NEETS has been an awful social disaster for us.
The conclusions of that study are quite powerful and, I have to say, very convincing:
"Overall
Although the impact of Brexit on the British economy is uncertain, we doubt that Britain’s long-term economic outlook hinges on it. Things have changed a lot since 1973, when joining the European Economic Community was a big deal for the United Kingdom. There are arguably much more important issues now, such as whether productivity will recover. The shortfall in British productivity relative to its pre-crisis trend is still over 10%, so regaining that lost ground would offset even the most negative of estimates of Brexit on the economy. Based on assessing the evidence, we conclude that:
The more extreme claims made about the costs and benefits of Brexit for the British economy are wide of the mark and lacking in evidential bases
It is plausible that Brexit could have a modest negative impact on growth and job creation. But it is slightly more plausible that the net impacts will be modestly positive. This is a strong conclusion when compared with some studies
There are potential net benefits in the areas of a more tailored immigration policy, the freedom to make trade deals, moderately lower levels of regulation and savings to the public purse. In each of these areas, we do not believe that the benefits of Brexit would be huge, but they are likely to be positive
Meanwhile, costs in terms of financial services, foreign direct investment and impacts on London property markets are more likely to be short-term and there are longer-term opportunities from Brexit even in these areas
It is not likely that any particular region or regions of the country would be more adversely affected by Brexit than the country overall. Likewise, we do find support for the notion that Brexit would benefit some sectors more than others, but the range of outcomes for production / manufacturing industries is probably wider than for services
We continue to think that the United Kingdom’s economic prospects are good whether inside or outside the European Union. Britain has pulled ahead of the European Union in recent years, and we expect that gap to widen over the next few years regardless of whether Brexit occurs."
This bit explains why I'm voting Remain, and why I don't think the EEA route is worth the candle (given that in addition it wouldn't help on migration):
Overall, financial services have more to lose immediately after a European Union exit than most other sectors of the economy. Even in the best case scenario [an EEA-style deal], in which passporting rights were preserved, the United Kingdom would still lose influence over the single market’s rules. The City would probably be hurt in the short term, but it would not spell disaster. The City’s competitive advantage is founded on more than just unfettered access to the single market. A European Union exit would enable the United Kingdom to broker trade deals with emerging markets that could pay dividends for the financial services sector in the long run.
It's a trade-off of a very likely loss against a speculative gain, which in any case might be attainable anyway - we can extend our trade in financial services with non-EU countries if we stay in.
But what you are excluding is, if we remain in, any attempts by the Eurozone to migrate activities out of London. I see a real risk of permanent damage from being in vs temporary damage with future upside from Leave.
Agreed.
Remain is not the status quo. It is just as uncertain but without the benefit of repatriating sovereignty.
Interesting how quiet the resident Nats are about your info Charles...
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
And their conversation was just their gossip and opinion. Hearsay built on hearsay. O'Donnell has been mouthing off ever since he left his job. Before the general election he was making dire predictions about the Union and Scottish independence if the snp did well. He has an axe to grind and a low opinion of mps and pms, any pm.
Just to be clear, the only part of my post attributed to the Ambassdaor/G.O.D. Was the Scottish point. Everything else was separate.
You don't have to believe me. I think the conversation happened, my source thougt it was a real conversation, not speculation. The Ambassador would have known a comment like that would have been reported back to the authorities. It feels like a back channel.
But dismiss it if you want. I don't care.
Any titbits from dinner with Terry and June?
Haven't seen Terry for about 9 months - but when I did he was still trying to pretend that the Tesco fiasco was nothing to do with him
Tidbits from Paris. Just off to meet with the farmers
- French Ambassador and Gus O'Donnell had a conversation about 2 weeks ago in a message was passed to G.O.D. (Presumably to be passed to Cameron). Post Brexit, the EU intends to make an unconditional offer to Scotland to join the EU on the same terms (+the Euro) as the UK currently has. This *may* explain Cameron's sudden panic
- My Paris contact (extremely close to people who know Cameron very well) says that he is a dipshit. Utterly thick and disconnected from the detail, which is why he gets tripped up so often. I quote precisely
-...
- Germany sees Brexit as a win/win. If the UK stays they have a net contributor and reliablish ally against France. If the UK leaves Western Europe looks more and more like the 4th Reich. The actual parallel this guy used was 1870...
Wow. That's fascinating.
Doesn't look like Cameron has tried very hard, does it?
And it looks a barely credible story as well.
Well Charles is a far more credible source than you.
My source was standing next to GOD and the Ambassador when they were speaking. It's his job to know what's going on. And he doesn't work for the FCO - so I'm not being played (our friendship goes back 6 generations)
And their conversation was just their gossip and opinion. Hearsay built on hearsay. O'Donnell has been mouthing off ever since he left his job. Before the general election he was making dire predictions about the Union and Scottish independence if the snp did well. He has an axe to grind and a low opinion of mps and pms, any pm.
Just to be clear, the only part of my post attributed to the Ambassdaor/G.O.D. Was the Scottish point. Everything else was separate.
You don't have to believe me. I think the conversation happened, my source thougt it was a real conversation, not speculation. The Ambassador would have known a comment like that would have been reported back to the authorities. It feels like a back channel.
But dismiss it if you want. I don't care.
I'm not taking much notice of increasingly febrile gosssip. I'm not fussed if we leave the eu and remain in the eea. But there will be massive and even more febrile hysteria as we go down that route.
This bit explains why I'm voting Remain, and why I don't think the EEA route is worth the candle (given that in addition it wouldn't help on migration):
Overall, financial services have more to lose immediately after a European Union exit than most other sectors of the economy. Even in the best case scenario [an EEA-style deal], in which passporting rights were preserved, the United Kingdom would still lose influence over the single market’s rules. The City would probably be hurt in the short term, but it would not spell disaster. The City’s competitive advantage is founded on more than just unfettered access to the single market. A European Union exit would enable the United Kingdom to broker trade deals with emerging markets that could pay dividends for the financial services sector in the long run.
It's a trade-off of a very likely loss against a speculative gain, which in any case might be attainable anyway - we can extend our trade in financial services with non-EU countries if we stay in.
But what you are excluding is, if we remain in, any attempts by the Eurozone to migrate activities out of London. I see a real risk of permanent damage from being in vs temporary damage with future upside from Leave.
Agreed.
Remain is not the status quo. It is just as uncertain but without the benefit of repatriating sovereignty.
Interesting how quiet the resident Nats are about your info Charles - I imagine the SNP spin room is currently trying to digest how to respond...
The status quo is simply not possible. This cannot be repeated enough. REMAIN is not a risk free option. What we do know is that we will continue to lose sovereignty as members of the EU.
Looks like the Euro is going to put in a high early next week but well short of the EURUSD 1.16 level, and then there could be real fireworks in the runup to Monday 14th March. We've seen before the latest ongoing bear market rally that core periphery sovereign bond spreads crack wider. Portugese German Bund 10 year spread did get up to nearly 400 basis points (4%), and then there are the woes of Deutsche Bank to worry about. The timing couldn't be better after Cameron comes back waving his piece of paper as a version of 'peace in our time'.
Comments
Jamie Ross
Alex Salmond says on his weekly radio phone-in The Alex Salmond Phone-In that Boris Johnson "wants to be the centre of attention".
Rachel Reeves turns down invitation to join John McDonnell's economic review – @georgeeaton http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/02/rachel-reeves-turns-down-invitation-join-labours-economic-review …
Worth reading for the account of how John McDonnell is taking more power to himself.
It's going nowhere for another 5-10 years...
Post debate:
Trump earned 35 percent, followed by 19 percent for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 17 percent for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, 9 percent for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, 8 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and 7 percent for Ben Carson. Just 5 percent of voters say they remain undecided among that group.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/south-carolina-primary-2016-live-updates-and-results/2016/02/donald-trump-south-carolina-2016-poll-219373#ixzz40RjBmPVa
Clinton and Sanders tied in Nevada - Jeb! down to 1%!
Interesting that this happened in Holland but not, for instance, here. I wonder what that says, if anything, about the different types of liberalism in each country and/or, possibly the different left-wing parties.
Bush fighting Carson for last place, Rubio fighting Cruz for second, Trump way ahead in the mid 30's.
And finally, "is that likely to continue in the future, and is it worth paying the current price for the likely future dividend stream?"
Otherwise, you're simply farting around discussing the price at which other people exchanged pieces of paper.
It's like this: the Nikkei 225, the Japanese stock market index, peaked in 1990.
But the profits of Nikkei firms have increased four times since then. Dividends have increased seven fold.
The problem has not been the economic performance of the firms, but that people exchanged bits of paper for far too much money.
Or the car crash of Eurosceptic liberal David Pehaligon
Or the suspicious early death of Eurosceptic Labour leader Hugh Gaitskill
Just seen a little about the Turkish bombing.
Before the general election he was making dire predictions about the Union and Scottish independence if the snp did well. He has an axe to grind and a low opinion of mps and pms, any pm.
Before the general election he was making dire predictions about the Union and Scottish independence if the snp did well. He has an axe to grind and a low opinion of mps and pms, any pm.
Lets say you buy stocks worth 100 pounds, it provides dividends of 1 pound per year, the share price falls by 30% in 10 years and stays there.
Even if the dividends are doubled to 2 pounds per year immediately on purchase, you would need 15 years to make a profit.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35598892
George Gaynes - best known for playing the bungling Commandant Lassard in the Police Academy films - has died aged 98.
I've also seen this in the news:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-nuclear-dirty-bomb-iraq-oil-field-a6879481.html
"'Highly dangerous' radioactive material stolen, sparking fears of Isis 'dirty bomb' "
And I think it's got a lot further to fall.
It was a warning not to criticise Islam. And there was a specific threat made to Hirsi Ali in the note the killer left pinned to Van Gogh's body.
Fortuyn was not killed by an Islamist.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/644269/Syria-airstrikes-General-Lord-Dannatt-Britain-copy-Russia-support-Assad
Nice to see more people speaking out.
No idea what will happen in Nevada, the party machine will 'influence' results and I suspect Mexicans don't have a tradition of caucusing given they tend not to vote anyway (or register to vote for that matter)?
I'd guess the former, if they think they can get away with it.
Just reading his biography a bit, if Carter hadn't boycotted the Moscow Olympics he would have probably become an olympic medalist for kayaking, that's something I didn't knew before.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35598892
I thoroughly recommend The Tainted Source - The Undemocratic Origins of the European Idea by John Laughland. It is sometimes easy to forget it was published in 1997 as much of what is discussed is still true today. I particularly like the following:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2015/07/09/01016-20150709ARTFIG00288-migrants-les-europeens-veulent-la-fin-de-schengen.php
they were more pro-Schengen than Britain or (especially) France but less so than Italy or Germany. Overall, 59% favoured "provisional" reestablishment of border controls, vs 41% who disagreed. Might have changed since then, of course.
Why the Brits felt so strongly is interesting - presumably a spinoff from general unease about immigration. I'm surprised that most people in Britain knew what Schengen was.
The poll (same page) also showed the Dutch much less tough on stronger border controls against African migrants and more willing (47%) to accept a bigger share of migrants landing in Italy. Germany was massively keen to accept a bigger share of migrants (69%); the Brits weren't (32%).
"This first sliiiii-iiiide...."
A schoolboy favourite
However Sanders is much stronger in the mountain west than Hillary was in 2008.
About Nevada, turnout is very poor, usually 3%, further the democrats don't publish voting results, only delegates won like in Iowa.
And like in Iowa Sanders may have won the popular vote but Hillary won all the coin tosses for delegates.
Further, the delegates are assigned by geographical criteria not by population, so that even the ghost towns in the desert get a minimum of delegates, Las Vegas and Reno get less delegates per voter than the ghost towns where no one lives, Obama used that trick to win Nevada with fewer votes than Hillary in 2008.
On top of that unlike in Iowa where if they are tied in districts there is a coin toss, in Nevada they play cards to determine the winner in a tie (it's Nevada, what did you expect?), so expect a lot of card cheating too.
Caucuses are the worst electoral contests in the world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airey_Neave#Conspiracy_theories
I've read the Laughland book but it was some time ago so cannot, to be honest, remember very much about it, though I do recall a lot about customs unions and fiat currencies.
This bit explains why I'm voting Remain, and why I don't think the EEA route is worth the candle (given that in addition it wouldn't help on migration):
Overall, financial services have more to lose immediately after a European Union exit than most other sectors of the economy. Even in the best case scenario [an EEA-style deal], in which passporting rights were preserved, the United Kingdom would still lose influence over the single market’s rules. The City would probably be hurt in the short term, but it would not spell disaster. The City’s competitive advantage is founded on more than just unfettered access to the single market. A European Union exit would enable the United Kingdom to broker trade deals with emerging markets that could pay dividends for the financial services sector in the long run.
It's a trade-off of a very likely loss against a speculative gain, which in any case might be attainable anyway - we can extend our trade in financial services with non-EU countries if we stay in.
the 4-5 was better,the 4-6 is still good.
You don't have to believe me. I think the conversation happened, my source thougt it was a real conversation, not speculation. The Ambassador would have known a comment like that would have been reported back to the authorities. It feels like a back channel.
But dismiss it if you want. I don't care.
Then again, big corporates wouldn't have such huge profit margins
An NHS rabble rousing friend of my other half is always morning about zero hours jobs - it turns out it was because her daughter had one. I asked her to guess how many people were on zero hours - she overestimate by about 1000%
I just walked right past (and I mean right past, brushing shoulders with him) Mark Clarke at a very busy Waterloo station. Like 90 seconds ago..
I feel dirty.
EU referendum poll
Remain: 43% (+2)
Leave: 39% (-3)
(via ICM / 12 - 14 Feb)
"Overall
Although the impact of Brexit on the British economy is uncertain, we doubt that Britain’s long-term economic outlook hinges on it. Things have changed a lot since 1973, when joining the European Economic Community was a big deal for the United Kingdom. There are arguably much more important issues now, such as whether productivity will recover. The shortfall in British productivity relative to its pre-crisis trend is still over 10%, so regaining that lost ground would offset even the most negative of estimates of Brexit on the economy. Based on assessing the evidence, we conclude that:
The more extreme claims made about the costs and benefits of Brexit for the British economy are wide of the mark and lacking in evidential bases
It is plausible that Brexit could have a modest negative impact on growth and job creation. But it is slightly more plausible that the net impacts will be modestly positive. This is a strong conclusion when compared with some studies
There are potential net benefits in the areas of a more tailored immigration policy, the freedom to make trade deals, moderately lower levels of regulation and savings to the public purse. In each of these areas, we do not believe that the benefits of Brexit would be huge, but they are likely to be positive
Meanwhile, costs in terms of financial services, foreign direct investment and impacts on London property markets are more likely to be short-term and there are longer-term opportunities from Brexit even in these areas
It is not likely that any particular region or regions of the country would be more adversely affected by Brexit than the country overall. Likewise, we do find support for the notion that Brexit would benefit some sectors more than others, but the range of outcomes for production / manufacturing industries is probably wider than for services
We continue to think that the United Kingdom’s economic prospects are good whether inside or outside the European Union. Britain has pulled ahead of the European Union in recent years, and we expect that gap to widen over the next few years regardless of whether Brexit occurs."
Remain is not the status quo. It is just as uncertain but without the benefit of repatriating sovereignty.
Interesting how quiet the resident Nats are about your info Charles...
I'm not fussed if we leave the eu and remain in the eea.
But there will be massive and even more febrile hysteria as we go down that route.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/02/17/usa-today-suffolk-poll-whos-more-electable/80452560/
USA Today/ Suffolk National Poll:
Hillary 50 -6
Sanders 40 +11
Trump 35 +8
Cruz 20 +3
Rubio 19 +3
Kasich 6 +4
Carson 4 -6
Bush 4 0
The bottom 3 that are most likely to drop out have 14% all together, Trump's lead is 15%.
GE Match-ups
Hillary 43 -5
Trump 45 +1
Hillary 44 -3
Cruz 45 0
Hillary 42 -3
Rubio 48 0
Sanders 43
Trump 44
Sanders 44
Cruz 42
Sanders 42
Rubio 46
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/euro-near-collapse/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/euro/is-the-pending-euro-collapse-on-target-from-our-2011-forecast-of-2016-202/
Looks like the Euro is going to put in a high early next week but well short of the EURUSD 1.16 level, and then there could be real fireworks in the runup to Monday 14th March. We've seen before the latest ongoing bear market rally that core periphery sovereign bond spreads crack wider. Portugese German Bund 10 year spread did get up to nearly 400 basis points (4%), and then there are the woes of Deutsche Bank to worry about. The timing couldn't be better after Cameron comes back waving his piece of paper as a version of 'peace in our time'.