Just suppose the polls over the coming weeks follow this morning's lead by YouGov in showing LEAVE as having a clear lead, what does Cameron do next? Press on regardless, with seemingly every likelihood of his being defeated in June and a very personal defeat that indeed would be? Or does he decide that discretion is the better part of valour and attempt to negotiate better terms no matter how dim his prospects of success might seem? Or does he simply find some pretext, eg "more pressing business" for delaying the referendum, perhaps until next year? Tricky, possibly very tricky for him
Edit: Btw I don't think the media, nor the public will take too kindly to Stuart Rose's nanny-like suggestion that polls should be prohibited in the final two week period prior to the referendum date.
Of more interest is whether it flushes out any EUsceptic Tory, currently lying prone, under cover, into the open to lead Leave.
Someone mentioned he other day that If he makes the White House he should rename the Whitehouse as Trump house ........his government could be interesting though for the Iranians.
Since they met Rubio has been pretty much a wholly owned subsidiary of billionaire Miami auto dealer Norman Braman. This almost inevitably turned Rubio into the cabana boy for the Dade County Likud Party Billionaire Boosters Club.
Just suppose the polls over the coming weeks follow this morning's lead by YouGov in showing LEAVE as having a clear lead, what does Cameron do next? Press on regardless, with seemingly every likelihood of his being defeated in June and a very personal defeat that indeed would be? Or does he decide that discretion is the better part of valour and attempt to negotiate better terms no matter how dim his prospects of success might seem? Or does he simply find some pretext, eg "more pressing business" for delaying the referendum, perhaps until next year? Tricky, possibly very tricky for him
Edit: Btw I don't think the media, nor the public will take too kindly to Stuart Rose's nanny-like suggestion that polls should be prohibited in the final two week period prior to the referendum date.
Of more interest is whether it flushes out any EUsceptic Tory, currently lying prone, under cover, into the open to lead Leave.
The number of candidates proposed to lead Leave seems to be larger than the electorate of the UK!
How is it to be decided? By whom and on what basis? Ditto for Remain.
Yes, very best wishes to TSE. Eyesight is always under threat for those 3 million (potentially up to 4 million) diabetes sufferers, requiring regular check-ups and careful dietary intake, etc. Without knowing TSE's particular circumstances, it's difficult to know whether he's at greater risk than others with this ailment.
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.
That bit's easy. You just hire Goldman Sachs
BTW @rcs1000 how can GS even have the moxy to *ask* Malyasia for $589m in fees on a $6.5bn fund raising.
Market rate would be $10-12m. Even with some fancy derivatives they do basically scalp their clients.
How can you justify that kind of culture?
Because they jusst fund the politicians not to take action against them.
The Yougov EU poll showing Scotland as the only one of their 5 UK regions to vote remain, by a pretty hefty margin (53 - 32, HT James Kelly). Hard to see any significant event changing that dislocation.
Just suppose the polls over the coming weeks follow this morning's lead by YouGov in showing LEAVE as having a clear lead, what does Cameron do next? Press on regardless, with seemingly every likelihood of his being defeated in June and a very personal defeat that indeed would be? Or does he decide that discretion is the better part of valour and attempt to negotiate better terms no matter how dim his prospects of success might seem? Or does he simply find some pretext, eg "more pressing business" for delaying the referendum, perhaps until next year? Tricky, possibly very tricky for him
Edit: Btw I don't think the media, nor the public will take too kindly to Stuart Rose's nanny-like suggestion that polls should be prohibited in the final two week period prior to the referendum date.
Of more interest is whether it flushes out any EUsceptic Tory, currently lying prone, under cover, into the open to lead Leave.
Although LEAVE needs a leader, I don't think he or she needs necessarily to be particularly prominent - for example Dan Hannan would fit the bill very well indeed imho. Whilst I wouldn't want Farage to lead as such, he is a terrific speaker as evidenced by any number of those brilliant video clips of him socking it to them in the European Parliament and he'd be a great asset for the LEAVE camp in any TV debate as well as in Newsnight-type confrontations, pitched against his opposite numbers.
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.
That bit's easy. You just hire Goldman Sachs
BTW @rcs1000 how can GS even have the moxy to *ask* Malyasia for $589m in fees on a $6.5bn fund raising.
Market rate would be $10-12m. Even with some fancy derivatives they do basically scalp their clients.
How can you justify that kind of culture?
Oh, is that why politicians get the big after dinner speech fees and directorships after their terms in office...... ?
Someone mentioned he other day that If he makes the White House he should rename the Whitehouse as Trump house ........his government could be interesting though for the Iranians.
Since they met Rubio has been pretty much a wholly owned subsidiary of billionaire Miami auto dealer Norman Braman. This almost inevitably turned Rubio into the cabana boy for the Dade County Likud Party Billionaire Boosters Club.
The Yougov EU poll showing Scotland as the only one of their 5 UK regions to vote remain, by a pretty hefty margin (53 - 32, HT James Kelly). Hard to see any significant event changing that dislocation.
Someone mentioned he other day that If he makes the White House he should rename the Whitehouse as Trump house ........his government could be interesting though for the Iranians.
Since they met Rubio has been pretty much a wholly owned subsidiary of billionaire Miami auto dealer Norman Braman. This almost inevitably turned Rubio into the cabana boy for the Dade County Likud Party Billionaire Boosters Club.
Just suppose the polls over the coming weeks follow this morning's lead by YouGov in showing LEAVE as having a clear lead, what does Cameron do next? Press on regardless, with seemingly every likelihood of his being defeated in June and a very personal defeat that indeed would be? Or does he decide that discretion is the better part of valour and attempt to negotiate better terms no matter how dim his prospects of success might seem? Or does he simply find some pretext, eg "more pressing business" for delaying the referendum, perhaps until next year? Tricky, possibly very tricky for him
Edit: Btw I don't think the media, nor the public will take too kindly to Stuart Rose's nanny-like suggestion that polls should be prohibited in the final two week period prior to the referendum date.
Of more interest is whether it flushes out any EUsceptic Tory, currently lying prone, under cover, into the open to lead Leave.
The number of candidates proposed to lead Leave seems to be larger than the electorate of the UK!
How is it to be decided? By whom and on what basis? Ditto for Remain.
It will be decided by who has most credibility and broad cross-party appeal, and who can reassure on economics. The board of Vote Leave should have the final say, if they can sort themselves out.
Stuart Rose is a joke but Remain have the advantage that their campaign is effectively led by Cameron, with Osborne as his chief bruiser, whatever he might say about official neutrality to the contrary.
Britain Elects @britainelects Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.
Proberly cheering this,
YouGov/Times:
CON 39 (=) LAB 29 (-1) LIB 6 (=) UKIP 18 (+1) GRN 3 (=) SNP 4 (=)
Dates 3rd-4th Feb
Could we see UKIP closing in on Labour within a year?
Yes if Corbyn and McDonnell stay in charge.
I can see Labour heading towards 26/7. The question is whether UKIP could get up that high.
It would surely involve taking another tithe of voters from the Tories I would imagine.
If UKIP can't make hay out of the current political environment, they never will. An incompetent soft Marxist Labour leadership, a misfiring Conservative government, an invisible and discredited Lib Dems, and an In/Out EU referendum. UKIP have a genuine opportunity to be topping the polls in the low 30s by the summer. For historic parallels, I'd mention the Alliance in 1981/2, the Lib Dems in 2010, and UKIP themselves at the EP election.
The Yougov EU poll showing Scotland as the only one of their 5 UK regions to vote remain, by a pretty hefty margin (53 - 32, HT James Kelly). Hard to see any significant event changing that dislocation.
What are the 5 regions?
London, rest of South, Wales & Midlands, North, Scotland. Surprised that London is out.
Someone mentioned he other day that If he makes the White House he should rename the Whitehouse as Trump house ........his government could be interesting though for the Iranians.
Since they met Rubio has been pretty much a wholly owned subsidiary of billionaire Miami auto dealer Norman Braman. This almost inevitably turned Rubio into the cabana boy for the Dade County Likud Party Billionaire Boosters Club.
Just suppose the polls over the coming weeks follow this morning's lead by YouGov in showing LEAVE as having a clear lead, what does Cameron do next? Press on regardless, with seemingly every likelihood of his being defeated in June and a very personal defeat that indeed would be? Or does he decide that discretion is the better part of valour and attempt to negotiate better terms no matter how dim his prospects of success might seem? Or does he simply find some pretext, eg "more pressing business" for delaying the referendum, perhaps until next year? Tricky, possibly very tricky for him
Edit: Btw I don't think the media, nor the public will take too kindly to Stuart Rose's nanny-like suggestion that polls should be prohibited in the final two week period prior to the referendum date.
Of more interest is whether it flushes out any EUsceptic Tory, currently lying prone, under cover, into the open to lead Leave.
The number of candidates proposed to lead Leave seems to be larger than the electorate of the UK!
How is it to be decided? By whom and on what basis? Ditto for Remain.
It will be decided by who has most credibility and broad cross-party appeal, and who can reassure on economics. The board of Vote Leave should have the final say, if they can sort themselves out.
Stuart Rose is a joke but Remain have the advantage that their campaign is effectively led by Cameron, with Osborne as his chief bruiser, whatever he might say about official neutrality to the contrary.
It does beg the question of who appoints the board of Leave though.
Britain Elects @britainelects Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.
Proberly cheering this,
YouGov/Times:
CON 39 (=) LAB 29 (-1) LIB 6 (=) UKIP 18 (+1) GRN 3 (=) SNP 4 (=)
Dates 3rd-4th Feb
Could we see UKIP closing in on Labour within a year?
Yes if Corbyn and McDonnell stay in charge.
I can see Labour heading towards 26/7. The question is whether UKIP could get up that high.
It would surely involve taking another tithe of voters from the Tories I would imagine.
If UKIP can't make hay out of the current political environment, they never will. An incompetent soft Marxist Labour leadership, a misfiring Conservative government, an invisible and discredited Lib Dems, and an In/Out EU referendum. UKIP have a genuine opportunity to be topping the polls in the low 30s by the summer. For historic parallels, I'd mention the Alliance in 1981/2, the Lib Dems in 2010, and UKIP themselves at the EP election.
When the economy slows, which will happen perhaps sooner than you think, some of the Conservative vote will peel off and it will be a question of where that goes. Remember Cameron failed to win a majority once and barely a majority the second time despite having highly favourable circumstances both times, there is no real popular support there.
DH: "If UKIP can't make hay out of the current political environment, they never will. An incompetent soft Marxist Labour leadership, a misfiring Conservative government, an invisible and discredited Lib Dems, and an In/Out EU referendum. UKIP have a genuine opportunity to be topping the polls in the low 30s by the summer. "
Were that to be the case, then you'd have to say that REMAIN would stand absolutely no chance!
The Yougov EU poll showing Scotland as the only one of their 5 UK regions to vote remain, by a pretty hefty margin (53 - 32, HT James Kelly). Hard to see any significant event changing that dislocation.
Why are we still allowing serious sexual and physical assault on young girls go unchallenged..Those FGM figures are appalling and no one is ever brought to court..If the authorities are aware of the numbers then they must also be aware of the identities..
Someone mentioned he other day that If he makes the White House he should rename the Whitehouse as Trump house ........his government could be interesting though for the Iranians.
Since they met Rubio has been pretty much a wholly owned subsidiary of billionaire Miami auto dealer Norman Braman. This almost inevitably turned Rubio into the cabana boy for the Dade County Likud Party Billionaire Boosters Club.
The Yougov EU poll showing Scotland as the only one of their 5 UK regions to vote remain, by a pretty hefty margin (53 - 32, HT James Kelly). Hard to see any significant event changing that dislocation.
Has anyone seen the Daily Express headline.. What a joke.. 92% want to leave the EU in Express voodoo poll shocker....
Why anyone is paying attention to polls when even the pollsters don't know if the results are on the money is beyond me.,.. Even the American polls are way out of line.
The only thing that does LOOK right is that You Gov have Labour sub 30% that seems right to me anyway.
Britain Elects @britainelects Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.
Proberly cheering this,
YouGov/Times:
CON 39 (=) LAB 29 (-1) LIB 6 (=) UKIP 18 (+1) GRN 3 (=) SNP 4 (=)
Dates 3rd-4th Feb
Could we see UKIP closing in on Labour within a year?
Yes if Corbyn and McDonnell stay in charge.
I can see Labour heading towards 26/7. The question is whether UKIP could get up that high.
It would surely involve taking another tithe of voters from the Tories I would imagine.
If UKIP can't make hay out of the current political environment, they never will. An incompetent soft Marxist Labour leadership, a misfiring Conservative government, an invisible and discredited Lib Dems, and an In/Out EU referendum. UKIP have a genuine opportunity to be topping the polls in the low 30s by the summer. For historic parallels, I'd mention the Alliance in 1981/2, the Lib Dems in 2010, and UKIP themselves at the EP election.
When the economy slows, which will happen perhaps sooner than you think, some of the Conservative vote will peel off and it will be a question of where that goes. Remember Cameron failed to win a majority once and barely a majority the second time despite having highly favourable circumstances both times, there is no real popular support there.
Top trolling. Highly favourable circumstances are a euphemism for out of date and Labour favouring boundaries and some highly questionable electoral roll goings on...
Stop banging on about economics. The economic benefits for Remain, if they exist, do not work well in a referendum situation in a large, confident and economically powerful nation.
Remain might pip this by continuing to not worry about Project Fear.
The Yougov EU poll showing Scotland as the only one of their 5 UK regions to vote remain, by a pretty hefty margin (53 - 32, HT James Kelly). Hard to see any significant event changing that dislocation.
What are the 5 regions?
London, rest of South, Wales & Midlands, North, Scotland. Surprised that London is out.
Stop banging on about economics. The economic benefits for Remain, if they exist, do not work well in a referendum situation in a large, confident and economically powerful nation.
Remain might pip this by continuing to not worry about Project Fear.
The Yougov EU poll showing Scotland as the only one of their 5 UK regions to vote remain, by a pretty hefty margin (53 - 32, HT James Kelly). Hard to see any significant event changing that dislocation.
What are the 5 regions?
London, rest of South, Wales & Midlands, North, Scotland. Surprised that London is out.
The Yougov EU poll showing Scotland as the only one of their 5 UK regions to vote remain, by a pretty hefty margin (53 - 32, HT James Kelly). Hard to see any significant event changing that dislocation.
The Yougov EU poll showing Scotland as the only one of their 5 UK regions to vote remain, by a pretty hefty margin (53 - 32, HT James Kelly). Hard to see any significant event changing that dislocation.
The Yougov EU poll showing Scotland as the only one of their 5 UK regions to vote remain, by a pretty hefty margin (53 - 32, HT James Kelly). Hard to see any significant event changing that dislocation.
What are the 5 regions?
London, rest of South, Wales & Midlands, North, Scotland. Surprised that London is out.
Stop banging on about economics. The economic benefits for Remain, if they exist, do not work well in a referendum situation in a large, confident and economically powerful nation.
Remain might pip this by continuing to not worry about Project Fear.
What do you think Remain should campaign on?
Anything but high economics and 'what is the alternative'ism.
Perhaps visions of duty to Europe - prevention of wars etc. Really, remain do not have a good policy hand.
Leave can win this by being patriotic and positive, and letting Remain bang on about the impact of its none-victories. The way to counter that is not with negativity.
The Yougov EU poll showing Scotland as the only one of their 5 UK regions to vote remain, by a pretty hefty margin (53 - 32, HT James Kelly). Hard to see any significant event changing that dislocation.
What are the 5 regions?
London, rest of South, Wales & Midlands, North, Scotland. Surprised that London is out.
Anyone who votes REMAIN is a foul and vicious traitor who should be hanged and hanged high, preferably yesterday. The time for rational discussion is long past. Now is the time for action!
What should that action be? Well, executing the membership of the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties would be a start. Abolishing representative democracy altogether would be even better!
Anyone who votes REMAIN is a foul and vicious traitor who should be hanged and hanged high, preferably yesterday. The time for rational discussion is long past. Now is the time for action!
What should that action be? Well, executing the membership of the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties would be a start. Abolishing representative democracy altogether would be even better!
Interestingly the 'Leavers' think the government is doing a better job of managing the economy than the 'Remainers':
Govt managing economy well (net): Remain: -9 Leave: +11
Now of course, this could simply reflect the greater proportion of Con voters among 'Leave' - or it could be Leave... are less concerned by economic worries, or a combination of both..
The Yougov EU poll showing Scotland as the only one of their 5 UK regions to vote remain, by a pretty hefty margin (53 - 32, HT James Kelly). Hard to see any significant event changing that dislocation.
What are the 5 regions?
London, rest of South, Wales & Midlands, North, Scotland. Surprised that London is out.
Interestingly the 'Leavers' think the government is doing a better job of managing the economy than the 'Remainers':
Govt managing economy well (net): Remain: -9 Leave: +11
Now of course, this could simply reflect the greater proportion of Con voters among 'Leave' - or it could be Leave... are less concerned by economic worries, or a combination of both..
Either one of them and economics is neutralised as an argument.
Remain's worst nightmare is that pissing off not only Tory voters, but Tory activists, means Leave have a tremendous amount of campaigning support to rely on.
I am looking to see if I can take a fortnight off in June....
From Twitter, can't yet find a 'proper' source, but it's reported the Swedish aid worker who was murdered by a migrant has had her memorial verboten, in case it offends migrants.
If that turns out to be true (and the mainstream media is, in this regard, sometimes less reliable than Twitter) then it's the kind of insanity that could credibly lead to a real rise of extremist politicians. If the cuddly mainstream won't acknowledge reality and the genuine concerns people have, voters, at least in part, will turn to those who will.
Anyone who votes REMAIN is a foul and vicious traitor who should be hanged and hanged high, preferably yesterday. The time for rational discussion is long past. Now is the time for action!
What should that action be? Well, executing the membership of the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties would be a start. Abolishing representative democracy altogether would be even better!
The Yougov EU poll showing Scotland as the only one of their 5 UK regions to vote remain, by a pretty hefty margin (53 - 32, HT James Kelly). Hard to see any significant event changing that dislocation.
What are the 5 regions?
London, rest of South, Wales & Midlands, North, Scotland. Surprised that London is out.
Britain Elects @britainelects Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.
Proberly cheering this,
YouGov/Times:
CON 39 (=) LAB 29 (-1) LIB 6 (=) UKIP 18 (+1) GRN 3 (=) SNP 4 (=)
Dates 3rd-4th Feb
Could we see UKIP closing in on Labour within a year?
Yes if Corbyn and McDonnell stay in charge.
I can see Labour heading towards 26/7. The question is whether UKIP could get up that high.
It would surely involve taking another tithe of voters from the Tories I would imagine.
If UKIP can't make hay out of the current political environment, they never will. An incompetent soft Marxist Labour leadership, a misfiring Conservative government, an invisible and discredited Lib Dems, and an In/Out EU referendum. UKIP have a genuine opportunity to be topping the polls in the low 30s by the summer. For historic parallels, I'd mention the Alliance in 1981/2, the Lib Dems in 2010, and UKIP themselves at the EP election.
When the economy slows, which will happen perhaps sooner than you think, some of the Conservative vote will peel off and it will be a question of where that goes. Remember Cameron failed to win a majority once and barely a majority the second time despite having highly favourable circumstances both times, there is no real popular support there.
The notion that a party that won more votes than any party has done this century (including Blair's Labour in 2001), has 'no real popular support' is pushing it a bit.
I disagree that the economy will hit the Tory share all that hard - where will it go? I can well see many floating voters clinging to nurse there.
Europe and social values, on the other hand, have a good chance to push more socially conservative voters - Con and Lab - towards UKIP.
Comments
He really does need a convincing win in New Hampshire. If not, I'm going to drastically cut my exposure to him.
https://youtu.be/aCqHzjFr3dc
Since they met Rubio has been pretty much a wholly owned subsidiary of billionaire Miami auto dealer Norman Braman. This almost inevitably turned Rubio into the cabana boy for the Dade County Likud Party Billionaire Boosters Club.
http://www.thenation.com/article/meet-marco-rubios-far-right-neocon-donors/
Be afraid, very afraid.
How is it to be decided? By whom and on what basis? Ditto for Remain.
Whilst I wouldn't want Farage to lead as such, he is a terrific speaker as evidenced by any number of those brilliant video clips of him socking it to them in the European Parliament and he'd be a great asset for the LEAVE camp in any TV debate as well as in Newsnight-type confrontations, pitched against his opposite numbers.
Thanks. It's good to see Moscow's line on this. London, my ar$e.
Stuart Rose is a joke but Remain have the advantage that their campaign is effectively led by Cameron, with Osborne as his chief bruiser, whatever he might say about official neutrality to the contrary.
Were that to be the case, then you'd have to say that REMAIN would stand absolutely no chance!
SNP: 42
Lab: 28
Con: 25
You ommited to mention that.....
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4mzy46afe7/TimesResults_160204_EUReferendumDay1.pdf
Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for the article.
For it to win it needs to bring in a major figure from the left, willing to make the argument for sovereignty from a workers rights viewpoint.
I doubt it'll happen though, the narrow interests of the labour party will always trump the national interest.
Why anyone is paying attention to polls when even the pollsters don't know if the results are on the money is beyond me.,.. Even the American polls are way out of line.
The only thing that does LOOK right is that You Gov have Labour sub 30% that seems right to me anyway.
Stop banging on about economics. The economic benefits for Remain, if they exist, do not work well in a referendum situation in a large, confident and economically powerful nation.
Remain might pip this by continuing to not worry about Project Fear.
London: -5
South: -12
Mid/W: -10
North: -16
Scot: +21
NI is not polled.
Tory say 30% voting 60% Leave ............ 18.0%
Lab say 25% voting 30% Leave .............. 7.5%
UKIP say 30% voting 80% Leave ............ 24.0%
Total Leave vote (excl minor parties) = 49.5%
LEAVE wins!
But then the place IS stuffed with Scots.
Perhaps visions of duty to Europe - prevention of wars etc. Really, remain do not have a good policy hand.
Leave can win this by being patriotic and positive, and letting Remain bang on about the impact of its none-victories. The way to counter that is not with negativity.
What should that action be? Well, executing the membership of the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties would be a start. Abolishing representative democracy altogether would be even better!
Govt managing economy well (net):
Remain: -9
Leave: +11
Now of course, this could simply reflect the greater proportion of Con voters among 'Leave' - or it could be Leave... are less concerned by economic worries, or a combination of both..
As for the Unionsits I thought they were marginally remain - again against the grain of the main party the DUP .
Both sides are afraid to lose their subsidies.
Remain's worst nightmare is that pissing off not only Tory voters, but Tory activists, means Leave have a tremendous amount of campaigning support to rely on.
I am looking to see if I can take a fortnight off in June....
New thread New thread
If that turns out to be true (and the mainstream media is, in this regard, sometimes less reliable than Twitter) then it's the kind of insanity that could credibly lead to a real rise of extremist politicians. If the cuddly mainstream won't acknowledge reality and the genuine concerns people have, voters, at least in part, will turn to those who will.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/debateni/bill-white/how-will-northern-ireland-vote-in-the-upcoming-eu-referendum-34176966.html
I disagree that the economy will hit the Tory share all that hard - where will it go? I can well see many floating voters clinging to nurse there.
Europe and social values, on the other hand, have a good chance to push more socially conservative voters - Con and Lab - towards UKIP.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/12140444/European-court-challenges-Britains-right-to-deport-foreign-criminals.html
As an aside, arriving late for something once due to not allowing enough time is embarrassing, doing it multiple times....