politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing the Politicalbetting EU Polling Averages – spli
Comments
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Trump leads by SEVEN votes:
Trump 691
Cruz 6840 -
Oh CBS has Hillary 48, Sanders 46, O'Malley 3 now.
Cruz 27
Trump 25
Rubio 23
Carson 7
Paul 6
Numbers changing all the time.0 -
Calling it now, Cruz first in Iowa0
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Cruz leads: 1290 to 1245!0
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I've just plumped similarly. The fact that Trump isn't surging is very encouraging for Cruz and Rubio.M.Partridge said:Calling it now, Cruz first in Iowa
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CNN and CBS contradictory messages tbh
CBS miles better for Rubio.
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When I was Mayor of Baltimore I did such a good job they made two TV shows about my city - Homicide and The Wire...Pulpstar said:For God's sake O'Malley what a wasted vote.
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Rural counties report first and lean Cruz, as long as Trump is neck and neck or so for the moment he should win once the suburbs and Des Moines reportMortimer said:
I've just plumped similarly. The fact that Trump isn't surging is very encouraging for Cruz and Rubio.M.Partridge said:Calling it now, Cruz first in Iowa
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I think you may be a bit premature...M.Partridge said:Calling it now, Cruz first in Iowa
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LOL!Sunil_Prasannan said:...Palpatine: The dark side of the Force is a pathway to many policy platforms some consider to be unelectable...
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7% in
Cruz 30
Trump 29
Rubio 18
19% in
Hillary 53
Sanders 460 -
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Only 3% reported, but Cruz leads in Polk.HYUFD said:
Rural counties report first and lean Cruz, as long as Trump is neck and neck or so for the moment he should win once the suburbs and Des Moines reportMortimer said:
I've just plumped similarly. The fact that Trump isn't surging is very encouraging for Cruz and Rubio.M.Partridge said:Calling it now, Cruz first in Iowa
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Possibly, however i really get the feeling there is so much hype around Trump that it wont come into tangible votes....AndyJS said:
I think you may be a bit premature...M.Partridge said:Calling it now, Cruz first in Iowa
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Is that Matthew Partridge - former stalwart from the early days of Political Betting?M.Partridge said:
Possibly, however i really get the feeling there is so much hype around Trump that it wont come into tangible votes....AndyJS said:
I think you may be a bit premature...M.Partridge said:Calling it now, Cruz first in Iowa
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CNN showing one location with Trump 3rd - way behind - Rubio leading.0
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LIVE on #Periscope: Democratic caucus https://t.co/jMdvo4wFfs0
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Getting close to BF Cruz/Trump crossover0
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Cruz ahead?0
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Latest Betfair
Trump 2.16-2.6
Cruz 1.58-1.95
Rubio 30-1000 -
Clinton well ahead of Bernie so far, more than the polls had predicted. I wonder if there's a similar polling issue to the UK, that a left-wing candidate attracting the young has lots of keen fans answering polls, over-estimating support?
Huge momentum for Cruz if he wins or even runs Trump close. Lots of pressure on those beyond the top 3 to pull out soon.0 -
I think Cruz and Hillary are going to going to win.Sunil_Prasannan said:Cruz ahead?
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Shy Cruz Factor in the "entrance polls"?0
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Love it! Altough it'll take a lot to beat "and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering, while we conduct austerity debates".Sunil_Prasannan said:
Palpatine: Did you ever hear the Tragedy of Darth Corbyn the Wise?
Anakin: No.
Palpatine: I thought not. It's not a story the Labour Party would tell you. It's a Sith legend. Darth Corbyn was a Dark Lord of the Sith so powerful and so wise, he could use the Force to influence the midi-chlorians to create... Left-wing Policies. He had such a knowledge of the Dark Side, he could even keep the ones he cared about... from dying from boredom at Party meetings.
Anakin: He could actually...save people from boring themselves to death?
Palpatine: The dark side of the Force is a pathway to many policy platforms some consider to be unelectable.
Anakin: What happened to him?
Palpatine: He became so powerful, the only thing he was afraid of was losing his power... which, eventually of course, he did. Unfortunately, he taught his Shadow Chancellor everything he knew. Then his Shadow Chancellor stole his best policies. Ironic. He could save others from obscurity... but not himself.
Anakin: Is it possible to learn this power?
Palpatine: Not from a Socialist...
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BBC News saying a quarter of the Democrat vote in, with Hillary 5% ahead.0
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14% in
Cruz 30
Trump 28
Rubio 19
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If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.0
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Has the Trump train derailed?0
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O'Malley is holding a victory party. Bless.0
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34% in
Hillary 52
Sanders 480 -
Tim Stanley
Bush 1980 32%
Bush 1988 19%
Bush 2000 41%
Bush 201 <5%
#IowaCaucus0 -
If Cruz wins that means he becomes Trump's main rival, if Trump wins NH whichever of them wins SC is likely nominee, however I still think Trump will squeeze it out as more urban areas reportstjohn said:If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.
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41% in
Hillary 51
Sanders 48
19% in
Cruz 30
Trump 27
Rubio 190 -
Yes. But momentum is crucial. I'm not saying Trump would lose New Hampshire if he loses Iowa - but a small win in NH wouldn't be very good for him.AndyJS said:
He has a very big lead in the New Hampshire polls.stjohn said:If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.
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Cruz 30
Trump 270 -
I thought they were saying earlier that the Democrat results would take much longer to come in? Weird.0
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I told you to short Trump a few hours ago.HYUFD said:
If Cruz wins that means he becomes Trump's main rival, if Trump wins NH whichever of them wins SC is likely nominee, however I still think Trump will squeeze it out as more urban areas reportstjohn said:If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.
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Mark Gettleson
@LouiseMensch It's almost all rural conservative precincts so far, but early Cruz lead in Polk County is very interesting0 -
I've got £17 on Cruz at 3.850
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It looks like Des Moine will deliver victory to Cruz and Hillary.
First time that a major city has voted for the more right wing candidate.0 -
Betfair has Trump and Cruz back at effectively Evens the pair.
NH Trump currently 1.3-1.340 -
With 19% of precincts counted, Jim Gilmore has 2 votes. Not 2 percent. 2.0
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I have the suspicion that the announcement of the entrance polls an hour before voting started skewed the results on the GOP side in favour of Cruz.
Either that or all polls where crap.0 -
That had nothing to do with turnoutSpeedy said:
I told you to short Trump a few hours ago.HYUFD said:
If Cruz wins that means he becomes Trump's main rival, if Trump wins NH whichever of them wins SC is likely nominee, however I still think Trump will squeeze it out as more urban areas reportstjohn said:If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.
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Even if Cruz edges it in Iowa, that would probably result in just a 1 delegate lead, owing to its PR allocation.
NH and SC are quasi Winner Takes All, and far more significant.
I will soon have a spreadsheet up, indicating all of this, as I did in 2012.0 -
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It's all about the momentum!RodCrosby said:Even if Cruz edges it in Iowa, that would probably result in just a 1 delegate lead, owing to its PR allocation.
NH and SC are quasi Winner Takes All, and far more significant.
I will soon have a spreadsheet up, indicating all of this, as I did in 2012.0 -
Yeah, we heard that about Santorum and Gingrich too, in 2012...RobD said:
It's all about the momentum!RodCrosby said:Even if Cruz edges it in Iowa, that would probably result in just a 1 delegate lead, owing to its PR allocation.
NH and SC are quasi Winner Takes All, and far more significant.
I will soon have a spreadsheet up, indicating all of this, as I did in 2012.0 -
So far turnout looks like 140k for the GOP, at the low end of expectations.HYUFD said:
That had nothing to do with turnoutSpeedy said:
I told you to short Trump a few hours ago.HYUFD said:
If Cruz wins that means he becomes Trump's main rival, if Trump wins NH whichever of them wins SC is likely nominee, however I still think Trump will squeeze it out as more urban areas reportstjohn said:If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.
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Has to be good for Cruz and poor for Trump - especially in urban areas.Speedy said:
So far turnout looks like 140k for the GOP, at the low end of expectations.HYUFD said:
That had nothing to do with turnoutSpeedy said:
I told you to short Trump a few hours ago.HYUFD said:
If Cruz wins that means he becomes Trump's main rival, if Trump wins NH whichever of them wins SC is likely nominee, however I still think Trump will squeeze it out as more urban areas reportstjohn said:If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.
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Cruz is winning urban areas.Mortimer said:
Has to be good for Cruz and poor for Trump - especially in urban areas.Speedy said:
So far turnout looks like 140k for the GOP, at the low end of expectations.HYUFD said:
That had nothing to do with turnoutSpeedy said:
I told you to short Trump a few hours ago.HYUFD said:
If Cruz wins that means he becomes Trump's main rival, if Trump wins NH whichever of them wins SC is likely nominee, however I still think Trump will squeeze it out as more urban areas reportstjohn said:If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.
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37% in
Cruz 29
Trump 26
Rubio 20
57% in
Hillary 51
Sanders 480 -
Big jump in numbers reporting:
Cruz 29
Trump 26
Rubio 20
Big picture = good for Rubio?
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40% in
Cruz 29
Trump 26
Rubio 20
I'm calling it officially Cruz and Hillary have won.0 -
59.01% reporting
Hillary Clinton 51.0%
Bernie Sanders 48.5%
Martin O'Malley 0.6%0 -
Trump drifting out to 4.5...0
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63% in
Hillary 51
Sanders 49
Perhaps I called Hillary too early.0 -
Bush and Paul might get one delegate if they're lucky, Carson 3.
Everyone below them nada.
In NH you need 10% to get anything, while SC is quasi FPTP by district and statewide.
Maybe after then there'll be a maximum of four candidates left in the race.0 -
It looks really bad for Trump, the city of Des Moine really hates him.0
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Trump slips:
Now 29/25/210 -
52% in
Cruz 29
Trump 25
Rubio 210 -
Paul Lewis ✔ @PaulLewis
One of Donald Trump's most talkative senior advisors tells me he's not in the mood for a chat. "I don't think I should do that right now."0 -
If Hillary wins Iowa place a big bet on her for president.
The GOP race looks like it's going to be a long fight with a very high probability they are going to select a weak candidate like in 2012.0 -
Assuming Trump wins New Hampshire it is between him and Cruz now for the nomination, with Rubio taking the bronze. Rubio either needs to win New Hampshire or take a strong second and then win South Carolina to become nominee now. Anyway, looks like a better than expected night for Cruz and Iowa has once again gone for the more evangelical conservative candidate. Will wait a few more minutes then check in again in the morningSpeedy said:
The media will bury Trump and raise an altar to Rubio.MikeL said:Big jump in numbers reporting:
Cruz 29
Trump 26
Rubio 20
Big picture = good for Rubio?
On the Democratic side was close as expected but Hillary looks to have won0 -
Rubio now vying with Trump for favourite's position as the overall 2016 GOP nominee.
Trump 2.34-2.98
Rubio 2.48-2.72
Cruz 7.8-9.00 -
Narrowing a tad, and Rubio creeping up.0
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60% in
Cruz 28
Trump 25
Rubio 220 -
Betfair almost calling it for Cruz in Iowa.
Cruz 1.06-1.07
Trump 10.5-95
My only POTUS bet of note so far is Cruz to be the overall GOP nominee at 5.0. At least he looks competitive again and his current nominee odds look a bit big.0 -
Yes, a good night for Hillary, she has held off Sanders and her dream scenario is a Trump v Cruz battle which looks more likely tonight, while Rubio is still in the fight he has also failed to do an Obama and win the Iowa caucuses which will please her as he is the candidate her camp most fear.Speedy said:If Hillary wins Iowa place a big bet on her for president.
The GOP race looks like it's going to be a long fight with a very high probability they are going to select a weak candidate like in 2012.0 -
75% in
Cruz 28
Trump 25
Rubio 220 -
On the DEM side the count has stopped at 63%
Hillary 51
Sanders 49
O'Malley has suspended his campaign.0 -
Finally made some money on Iowa after 3 goes!
Wish I'd shorted Trump more - he was at 1.3-1.4 as the market went in play.
Goodnight all - thanks for the company!0 -
@EdMorrissey
CNN now reporting that Martin O'Malley will suspend his campaign in the next 40 minutes.0 -
73% in
Hillary 50
Sanders 49
72% in
Cruz 28
Trump 25
Rubio 230 -
Hmm0
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75% in
Cruz 28
Trump 25
Rubio 220 -
76.8% reporting
Hillary Clinton
50.3%
Bernie Sanders
49.0%0 -
Trump would need a 9 point lead in the remaining to overtake.Sunil_Prasannan said:75% in
Cruz 28
Trump 25
Rubio 220 -
I have to say opinion polls are crap throughout the world.
I can't believe the time I waste look at them and posting them.
From now on all polls go to the bin, I won't even look at them.0 -
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of opinion polls entering political discourse, until the polling companies' representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!Speedy said:I have to say opinion polls are crap throughout the world.
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Cruz Control?RodCrosby said:
Trump would need a 9 point lead in the remaining to overtake.Sunil_Prasannan said:75% in
Cruz 28
Trump 25
Rubio 220 -
:-)Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of opinion polls entering political discourse, until the polling companies' representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!Speedy said:I have to say opinion polls are crap throughout the world.
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2 hours later and we still don't know who's going to win either contest.0
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97% in
Cruz 28
Trump 24
Rubio 23
And that's the big hit on the Trump campaign.
The worst of all worlds for Trump.
80% in
Hillary 50
Sanders 490 -
Whoa
97% in all of a sudden
Cruz 28
Trump 24
Rubio 23
OMG!0 -
97%? It says 81% on here:Speedy said:97% in
Cruz 28
Trump 24
Rubio 23
And that's the big hit on the Trump campaign.
The worst of all worlds for Trump.
80% in
Hillary 50
Sanders 49
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/pages/interactives/elections-results-primaries-2016/#/#/0
