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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Introducing the Politicalbetting EU Polling Averages – spli

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  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    AndyJS said:

    2 hours later and we still don't know who's going to win either contest.

    Rubio and Hillary*

    *Provided she wins.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,418
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    97% in

    Cruz 28
    Trump 24
    Rubio 23

    And that's the big hit on the Trump campaign.
    The worst of all worlds for Trump.

    80% in

    Hillary 50
    Sanders 49

    97%? It says 81% on here:

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/pages/interactives/elections-results-primaries-2016/#/#/
    Andy try this:

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ia/Rep
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    edited February 2016
    Speedy said:

    I have to say opinion polls are crap throughout the world.

    I can't believe the time I waste look at them and posting them.
    From now on all polls go to the bin, I won't even look at them.

    Cruz was leading most Iowa polls about 2 months ago, Hillary did win narrowly as most polls predicted
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Well not a great night for "the book"

    But £100 on Rubio Pres @ 5.0 and £35ish winnings onCruz makes it OK I guess ^^;
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    81% in

    Hillary ahead by 0.9%
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    82.75% reporting
    Hillary Clinton
    50.1%
    Bernie Sanders
    49.2%

    Less than 1% in it.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Well not a great night for "the book"

    But £100 on Rubio Pres @ 5.0 and £35ish winnings onCruz makes it OK I guess ^^;

    I'm putting money on Hillary, Rubio and Cruz will be crushed by her.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,253
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Whoa

    97% in all of a sudden

    Cruz 28
    Trump 24
    Rubio 23

    OMG!

    The Canadian is winning?

    That's jolly sporting of Iowa......
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    97% in

    Cruz 28
    Trump 24
    Rubio 23

    And that's the big hit on the Trump campaign.
    The worst of all worlds for Trump.

    80% in

    Hillary 50
    Sanders 49

    97%? It says 81% on here:

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/pages/interactives/elections-results-primaries-2016/#/#/
    Andy try this:

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ia/Rep
    Thanks.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Well not a great night for "the book"

    But £100 on Rubio Pres @ 5.0 and £35ish winnings onCruz makes it OK I guess ^^;

    I'm putting money on Hillary, Rubio and Cruz will be crushed by her.
    I'll probably nil out/green up if it comes to that. I'm -300 Rubio for the GOP

    Still above water !

    Will reassess next after New Hampshire.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    And CNN declares Cruz the winner, some 90 minutes after I declared it.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Iowa called for Cruz...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    84% reporting
    Clinton 50.1%
    Sanders 49.3%
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Speedy said:

    And CNN declares Cruz the winner, some 90 minutes after I declared it.

    The difference is they wait for a 99.5% probability of being right...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Huckabee drops out.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Gov. Mike Huckabee ✔ @GovMikeHuckabee
    I am officially suspending my campaign. Thank you for all your loyal support. #ImWithHucK
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    @GovMikeHuckabee 3 mins3 minutes ago
    I am officially suspending my campaign. Thank you for all your loyal support. #ImWithHucK
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    When Trump campaigned at Waterloo, Iowa, earlier today I should have known.

    At 84%

    Hillary by 0.5%
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Clinton 49.96%
    Sanders 49.36%

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/pages/interactives/elections-results-primaries-2016/#/#/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,823
    justin124 said:

    84% reporting
    Clinton 50.1%
    Sanders 49.3%

    Godsdammit I have to go to bed. At current rate of pickup Bernie may still win 49.8 vs Clinton 49.6, O'Malley 0.6. But sleepybye beckons: g'night, all.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    delegates could be 7,7,6,3,1,1,1,1 interestingly, depending on the final result.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    At 86% Hillary by 0.7
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Rubio odds for the GOP nomination on Betfair.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Rubio odds for the GOP nomination on Betfair.

    Yeap, bettors are returning to Rubio.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Rubio talking about Hillary maybe being "disqualified" as POTUS and unfit to be CIC as a "liar"...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited February 2016
    RodCrosby said:

    Rubio talking about Hillary maybe being "disqualified" as POTUS and unfit to be CIC as a "liar"...

    Hillary would beat him by an Obama margin, either a 2012 or 2008 one.

    Goodnight.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Rubio odds for the GOP nomination on Betfair.

    Yeap, bettors are returning to Rubio.
    Rubio has actually been polling better in Iowa recently than NH and SC and he still only came third, if Trump wins New Hampshire it is between him and Cruz in my view, anyway we shall see. Goodnight
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Rubio odds for the GOP nomination on Betfair.

    Yeap, bettors are returning to Rubio.
    Rubio has actually been polling better in Iowa recently than NH and SC and he still only came third, if Trump wins New Hampshire it is between him and Cruz in my view, anyway we shall see. Goodnight
    Yep the market is getting ahead of itself.

    Lets watch the New Hampshire polls though
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Oh God the bartender story...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    88.64% reporting
    Hillary Clinton
    49.9%
    Bernie Sanders
    49.4%
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2016
    hmm.

    lost a fair bit on the iowa market (I went in big backing Rubio to win @ 25/1). Not sure I regret that bet, even though it lost.

    Anyway losses are more than made up for on the nomination/potus markets.

    My main trade was laying the Donald @evens a couple of days ago (tipped on here) - and rebalancing my book to favour Rubio. Just laid him off @ 1.8 for the nomination. I think that's too low, tbh.

    All in all pretty profitable, despite getting the entrance polls completely wrong!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,736
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Rubio odds for the GOP nomination on Betfair.

    Yeap, bettors are returning to Rubio.
    Rubio has actually been polling better in Iowa recently than NH and SC and he still only came third, if Trump wins New Hampshire it is between him and Cruz in my view, anyway we shall see. Goodnight
    Yep the market is getting ahead of itself.

    Lets watch the New Hampshire polls though
    Indeed, will be an interesting few days, night
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Danny565 said:

    88.64% reporting
    Hillary Clinton
    49.9%
    Bernie Sanders
    49.4%

    Sanders still needs a 4% lead in the remaining...

    Unlikely.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited February 2016
    So the Democrat result is effectively a tie - no momentum in that for Clinton. 49.8 to 49.6 with 89% counted.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    Pong said:

    hmm.

    lost a fair bit on the ioaw market (I went in big backing Rubio to win @ 25/1)

    Not a bad bet, actually.

    Anyway, losses are more than made up for on the nomination/potus markets.

    My main trade was laying the Donald @evens a couple of days ago (tipped on here) - and rebalancing my profit on Rubio. Just laid him off @ 1.8 for the nomination.

    All in all pretty profitable.

    I got the entrance polls completely wrong, though!

    Hah kind of opposite for me.

    Made £36.76 profit on Cruz in Iowa, and got £100 on Rubio at 5.0 for POTUS (I'm kind of long the field (Except Bush) for the GOP nomination).

    The GOP nomination book has lost a fair chunk of EV though.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    Danny565 said:

    88.64% reporting
    Hillary Clinton
    49.9%
    Bernie Sanders
    49.4%

    Sanders still needs a 4% lead in the remaining...

    Unlikely.
    This page says Clinton 49.8%, Sanders 49.56%:

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/pages/interactives/elections-results-primaries-2016/#/#/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,663
    @Pong Do you think the GOP market has overeacted a tad to Rubio ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,418
    NEW THREAD
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    RobD said:

    So are the entrance polls typically any good?

    We now know the answer is NO.
This discussion has been closed.