From Kevin Barry (Iowa CBS affiliate reporter) on Twitter via Jonah Goldberg: Moderator asks room for a surrogate speaker for @JebBush. In room of 700, no one raised their hand. Audible gasps. #IaCaucus
Clinton well ahead of Bernie so far, more than the polls had predicted. I wonder if there's a similar polling issue to the UK, that a left-wing candidate attracting the young has lots of keen fans answering polls, over-estimating support?
Huge momentum for Cruz if he wins or even runs Trump close. Lots of pressure on those beyond the top 3 to pull out soon.
Palpatine: Did you ever hear the Tragedy of Darth Corbyn the Wise?
Anakin: No.
Palpatine: I thought not. It's not a story the Labour Party would tell you. It's a Sith legend. Darth Corbyn was a Dark Lord of the Sith so powerful and so wise, he could use the Force to influence the midi-chlorians to create... Left-wing Policies. He had such a knowledge of the Dark Side, he could even keep the ones he cared about... from dying from boredom at Party meetings.
Anakin: He could actually...save people from boring themselves to death?
Palpatine: The dark side of the Force is a pathway to many policy platforms some consider to be unelectable.
Anakin: What happened to him?
Palpatine: He became so powerful, the only thing he was afraid of was losing his power... which, eventually of course, he did. Unfortunately, he taught his Shadow Chancellor everything he knew. Then his Shadow Chancellor stole his best policies. Ironic. He could save others from obscurity... but not himself.
Anakin: Is it possible to learn this power?
Palpatine: Not from a Socialist...
Love it! Altough it'll take a lot to beat "and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering, while we conduct austerity debates".
If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.
If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.
He has a very big lead in the New Hampshire polls.
If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.
If Cruz wins that means he becomes Trump's main rival, if Trump wins NH whichever of them wins SC is likely nominee, however I still think Trump will squeeze it out as more urban areas report
If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.
He has a very big lead in the New Hampshire polls.
Yes. But momentum is crucial. I'm not saying Trump would lose New Hampshire if he loses Iowa - but a small win in NH wouldn't be very good for him.
If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.
If Cruz wins that means he becomes Trump's main rival, if Trump wins NH whichever of them wins SC is likely nominee, however I still think Trump will squeeze it out as more urban areas report
If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.
If Cruz wins that means he becomes Trump's main rival, if Trump wins NH whichever of them wins SC is likely nominee, however I still think Trump will squeeze it out as more urban areas report
If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.
If Cruz wins that means he becomes Trump's main rival, if Trump wins NH whichever of them wins SC is likely nominee, however I still think Trump will squeeze it out as more urban areas report
I told you to short Trump a few hours ago.
That had nothing to do with turnout
So far turnout looks like 140k for the GOP, at the low end of expectations.
If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.
If Cruz wins that means he becomes Trump's main rival, if Trump wins NH whichever of them wins SC is likely nominee, however I still think Trump will squeeze it out as more urban areas report
I told you to short Trump a few hours ago.
That had nothing to do with turnout
So far turnout looks like 140k for the GOP, at the low end of expectations.
Has to be good for Cruz and poor for Trump - especially in urban areas.
If Trump loses I could see the old windbag deflating. He wasn't expected to win Iowa until recently. Now, because of expectations, if he loses it could prove serious for his overall chances.
If Cruz wins that means he becomes Trump's main rival, if Trump wins NH whichever of them wins SC is likely nominee, however I still think Trump will squeeze it out as more urban areas report
I told you to short Trump a few hours ago.
That had nothing to do with turnout
So far turnout looks like 140k for the GOP, at the low end of expectations.
Has to be good for Cruz and poor for Trump - especially in urban areas.
Paul Lewis ✔ @PaulLewis One of Donald Trump's most talkative senior advisors tells me he's not in the mood for a chat. "I don't think I should do that right now."
If Hillary wins Iowa place a big bet on her for president. The GOP race looks like it's going to be a long fight with a very high probability they are going to select a weak candidate like in 2012.
The media will bury Trump and raise an altar to Rubio.
Assuming Trump wins New Hampshire it is between him and Cruz now for the nomination, with Rubio taking the bronze. Rubio either needs to win New Hampshire or take a strong second and then win South Carolina to become nominee now. Anyway, looks like a better than expected night for Cruz and Iowa has once again gone for the more evangelical conservative candidate. Will wait a few more minutes then check in again in the morning
On the Democratic side was close as expected but Hillary looks to have won
My only POTUS bet of note so far is Cruz to be the overall GOP nominee at 5.0. At least he looks competitive again and his current nominee odds look a bit big.
If Hillary wins Iowa place a big bet on her for president. The GOP race looks like it's going to be a long fight with a very high probability they are going to select a weak candidate like in 2012.
Yes, a good night for Hillary, she has held off Sanders and her dream scenario is a Trump v Cruz battle which looks more likely tonight, while Rubio is still in the fight he has also failed to do an Obama and win the Iowa caucuses which will please her as he is the candidate her camp most fear.
I have to say opinion polls are crap throughout the world.
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of opinion polls entering political discourse, until the polling companies' representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!
I have to say opinion polls are crap throughout the world.
Sunil J. Prasannan is calling for a total and complete shut-down of opinion polls entering political discourse, until the polling companies' representatives can figure out what the hell is going on!
Comments
Trump 691
Cruz 684
Cruz 27
Trump 25
Rubio 23
Carson 7
Paul 6
Numbers changing all the time.
CBS miles better for Rubio.
Cruz 30
Trump 29
Rubio 18
19% in
Hillary 53
Sanders 46
Moderator asks room for a surrogate speaker for @JebBush. In room of 700, no one raised their hand. Audible gasps. #IaCaucus
Trump 2.16-2.6
Cruz 1.58-1.95
Rubio 30-100
Huge momentum for Cruz if he wins or even runs Trump close. Lots of pressure on those beyond the top 3 to pull out soon.
Cruz 30
Trump 28
Rubio 19
Hillary 52
Sanders 48
Bush 1980 32%
Bush 1988 19%
Bush 2000 41%
Bush 201 <5%
#IowaCaucus
Hillary 51
Sanders 48
19% in
Cruz 30
Trump 27
Rubio 19
Trump 27
@LouiseMensch It's almost all rural conservative precincts so far, but early Cruz lead in Polk County is very interesting
First time that a major city has voted for the more right wing candidate.
NH Trump currently 1.3-1.34
Either that or all polls where crap.
NH and SC are quasi Winner Takes All, and far more significant.
I will soon have a spreadsheet up, indicating all of this, as I did in 2012.
Trump 2.5-3.3
Cruz 1.46-1.65
Cruz 29
Trump 26
Rubio 20
57% in
Hillary 51
Sanders 48
Cruz 29
Trump 26
Rubio 20
Big picture = good for Rubio?
Cruz 29
Trump 26
Rubio 20
I'm calling it officially Cruz and Hillary have won.
Hillary Clinton 51.0%
Bernie Sanders 48.5%
Martin O'Malley 0.6%
Hillary 51
Sanders 49
Perhaps I called Hillary too early.
Everyone below them nada.
In NH you need 10% to get anything, while SC is quasi FPTP by district and statewide.
Maybe after then there'll be a maximum of four candidates left in the race.
Rubio and Trump battling out for 2nd in Polk.
Now 29/25/21
Cruz 29
Trump 25
Rubio 21
One of Donald Trump's most talkative senior advisors tells me he's not in the mood for a chat. "I don't think I should do that right now."
The GOP race looks like it's going to be a long fight with a very high probability they are going to select a weak candidate like in 2012.
On the Democratic side was close as expected but Hillary looks to have won
Trump 2.34-2.98
Rubio 2.48-2.72
Cruz 7.8-9.0
Cruz 28
Trump 25
Rubio 22
Cruz 1.06-1.07
Trump 10.5-95
My only POTUS bet of note so far is Cruz to be the overall GOP nominee at 5.0. At least he looks competitive again and his current nominee odds look a bit big.
Cruz 28
Trump 25
Rubio 22
Hillary 51
Sanders 49
O'Malley has suspended his campaign.
Wish I'd shorted Trump more - he was at 1.3-1.4 as the market went in play.
Goodnight all - thanks for the company!
CNN now reporting that Martin O'Malley will suspend his campaign in the next 40 minutes.
Hillary 50
Sanders 49
72% in
Cruz 28
Trump 25
Rubio 23
Cruz 28
Trump 25
Rubio 22
Hillary Clinton
50.3%
Bernie Sanders
49.0%
I can't believe the time I waste look at them and posting them.
From now on all polls go to the bin, I won't even look at them.
Cruz 28
Trump 24
Rubio 23
And that's the big hit on the Trump campaign.
The worst of all worlds for Trump.
80% in
Hillary 50
Sanders 49
97% in all of a sudden
Cruz 28
Trump 24
Rubio 23
OMG!
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/pages/interactives/elections-results-primaries-2016/#/#/