politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB/Polling Matters podcast featuring Mike Smithson
Comments
-
$10 trillion seems quite high... $10trn / 110 equals average wealth per Russian billionaire of $90bn. Which is richer than Bill Gates, Carlos Slim or Warren Buffett.Pulpstar said:
The top 1% in Russia own 70% of the nation's wealth, with 110 Billionaires owning over $10T in assets. The rich-poor gap is way higher there than anywhere else, certainly in the western world.glw said:
A common trick in the 90s when Russian industry was privatised was for the newly privatised industries to appoint firms as exclusive agents. Those agents would buy at the Russian price and export at the market price and pocket the difference. And given that Russia has many of the "world's biggest X" where X is things like oil, aluminium, iron, steel and so on, there was a huge amount of money made but some very nasty people.RobD said:Madness, if true.
I don't think the situation is quite as blatantly larcenous now, but it is more consolidated and the people in power and the owners of the major industries are now very closely tied.0 -
#BREAKING - Tunisia announces nationwide curfew following four days of protests https://t.co/CYbYa36F2Z https://t.co/kUepTKun0o0
-
Oh, we went further than that. We actively corrupted chinese officials and broke Chinese laws in order to smuggle tea plants out of China. Those plants were used as to found the tea plantations of in India and Ceylon. Once those were up and running we didn't give a toss about the opium trade and eventually moved to suppress it. Interesting people were our Victorian ancestors.Jonathan said:
This illustrates the lengths the British will go to for a good cup of tea.HurstLlama said:
Nah. The opium wars were about balance of trade. We wanted to buy their tea but they would only accept hard cash (well silver actually) in payment. So we started to flog them opium, grown in India, which they paid for in silver we we then used to buy the tea that we wanted. The Chinese didn't like having their population corrupted by narcotics and moved to stop its import. We didn't like that and so we had the opium war, which led amongst other things to the founding of Hong Kong as a colony.OldKingCole said:
Isn’t that similar to what we did to them in the Opium Wars?perdix said:
Yebut..... if we keep on buying subsidised Chinese steel we will have no local source of production, no steel jobs, no taxes from steel business or employment.... Maybe that's what the Chinese want, destroy competition and then raise prices when they are sole supplier.rcs1000 said:
Thank you for injecting a bit of economic common sense.Patrick said:
Err...steel is a bulk and universal commodity. Like oil. Or copper. Or refined sugar. It's globally vastly over-produced. We should buy from the best value provider. It is NOT a strategic commodity. China subsidises its vast and inefficient steel industry as a makework exercise. UK taxpayers should be delighted that we're getting cheap steel courtesy of the loony policies of the Chinese leadership and the generosity of the Chinese taxpayer.malcolmg said:I see the Tories are planning to use Chinese steel for the type 26 frigates, what hold do they have over Cameron.
As a fine point of interest, until the 1970s the cap badge of the Royal Hong Police included a depiction of opium barrels.0 -
I think that's absolutely right.taffys said:''Is that why he said yesterday he wasn’t in a hurry to hold the referendum?''
I dunno. If the continental European politicians wails are even half right, who knows what Europe we will be dealing with in six months anyway. Don;t know about you, but the world feels very volatile to me right now.
One strong theme for me is anti elitism. Anti-Davos. That is what is behind the Trump phenomenon.0 -
I cant speak for other posters, but I would say that is completely irrelevant.. The problem isn't muslim countries, or muslims, it is the tension caused by rapid Islamic immigration to a certain (5-10%) level in countries where there were previously very few muslimsCarlottaVance said:For posters who fret about Muslims.....the world's most populous Muslim country, Indonesia, is overwhelmingly opposed to ISIS and their works:
http://jakarta.coconuts.co/2016/01/22/survey-says-953-indonesians-rejected-isis-back-december
And this survey was conducted before the most recent bomb attacks in Jakarta.....
I don't doubt it would be the same if it were Christians going to an Islamic country if the numbers were great enough
Mass Immigration=Segregation+Ghettoisation=Violence
See The Paris Suburbs, Molenbeek, The East End of London0 -
Ted Cruz at 6-1 looks big to me on Betfair right now.0
-
I would have thought the worst/best [delete as appropriate] would have been at the peak of the Eurozone crisis in 2011, when Leave had a 20% lead.SeanT said:
It would be entirely counter-productive for Farage or Hannan - or whoever - to go on TV and froth about bloody immigrants. It would put people OFF voting LEAVE, for fear of being tainted with all that unpleasantness.NorfolkTilIDie said:
So why do you think eurosceptics aren't making this argument on the telly? Why aren't think tanks making estimates of how many will come here?SeanT said:
You hadn't noticed that immigration/terror is now deemeed THE most important topic by the British voters, shooting up the list in the last few months? You think this has nothing to do with Paris/Cologne?NorfolkTilIDie said:
If that was really that likely, eurosceptics would be running wild with that. But I only ever hear that in internet comments. That suggests analysis is flawed.SeanT said:
As discussed yesterday, the British public are well aware that anyone let in to Germany today could be in the UK in a few years - or less, if Germany relaxes its citizenship laws - or they just decide to sneak in.NorfolkTilIDie said:
British public don't care how many immigrants go to Germany. They care how many come here.SeanT said:They must be getting worried in Europhile Central (10 Downing St) around about now. This is just too close to be comfortable, and with a spring and summer of migration/eurogeddon to come.
They really could lose this.
Relatedly, Dan Hannan speculates that TEN MILLION migrants might arrive in Europe this year. Ten. Million.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3409449/If-Brussels-bullies-like-think-like-vote-stay-writes-Conservative-MEP-DANIEL-HANNAN.html
Seems unlikely to me, but even if it is just half of that, it could be apocalyptic, presaging LEAVE
Yesterday also proved that the only people unaware of this self evident fact are pb's most ardent europhiles.
And presumably you don't link this to the swing to LEAVE now being shown in various polls?
You might be better off commenting on a less demanding website.
I spose they could be waiting for final couple of weeks to drop such estimates.
As others have noted, they don't have to do it. The news does it for them, pro or anti immigrant, this subject is dominating everything - along with the poisonous nexus of terror/ISIS/Calais/Islamism. And there's no let-up in sight, with the big seasonal migrations yet to begin.
Right now, it's looking like the europhile Tories have picked the worse POSSIBLE time to have a referendum on Europe.0 -
Given we are close to having none left it is not debatableJosiasJessop said:
I've asked this before, but steel is not just steel. There are many specialist alloys with various elements added, eg. vanadium, chromium etc.rcs1000 said:
The Chinese government does not set the price at which Chinese firms sell steel any more than the UK government does.perdix said:
Yebut..... if we keep on buying subsidised Chinese steel we will have no local source of production, no steel jobs, no taxes from steel business or employment.... Maybe that's what the Chinese want, destroy competition and then raise prices when they are sole supplier.rcs1000 said:
Thank you for injecting a bit of economic common sense.Patrick said:
Err...steel is a bulk and universal commodity. Like oil. Or copper. Or refined sugar. It's globally vastly over-produced. We should buy from the best value provider. It is NOT a strategic commodity. China subsidises its vast and inefficient steel industry as a makework exercise. UK taxpayers should be delighted that we're getting cheap steel courtesy of the loony policies of the Chinese leadership and the generosity of the Chinese taxpayer.malcolmg said:I see the Tories are planning to use Chinese steel for the type 26 frigates, what hold do they have over Cameron.
Truth be told, there is too much steel production in the world. Steel mills are going to close in the UK, in China, in Australia, in Germany and in the US. That is a natural part of the business cycle.
The most expensive (the so-called "marginal producer") mills will close. Our steel plants are not cheap by world standards. And local demand for steel is modest.
If we don't have world class steel plants, then we either burden the rest of the economy by supporting them through subsidies or by paying higher prices (which amount to the same thing), or we let them go.
We need to let them go. Propping up uncompetitive industries is a losing game. And it's one where we all pay the price in the long term.
Can any mill produce these steels and swap between them easily, or do they require specialist furnaces, crucibles etc?
Any debate on the industry would rather seem to hang on this question ...0 -
Keep trying to avoid the point with the rest of your hypocrit chums.watford30 said:
The steel choice will be up to BAE Systems, Hertel etc but why let the truth get in the way of a McRant.malcolmg said:I see the Tories are planning to use Chinese steel for the type 26 frigates, what hold do they have over Cameron.
The truth certainly seemed irrelevant when the SNPBad rants were being laid at the choice of Dragados, Hochtief, American Bridge, and Morrison Construction to use Chinese steel on the Quensferry Crossing.0 -
The rise of Corbyn also comes into that category for me.rcs1000 said:
I think that's absolutely right.taffys said:''Is that why he said yesterday he wasn’t in a hurry to hold the referendum?''
I dunno. If the continental European politicians wails are even half right, who knows what Europe we will be dealing with in six months anyway. Don;t know about you, but the world feels very volatile to me right now.
One strong theme for me is anti elitism. Anti-Davos. That is what is behind the Trump phenomenon.0 -
For a bunch of pirates and smugglers, yes. Was your family engaged out East, Mr. Charles? I have never heard of them being mentioned but so much money was being made I'd be surprised if they didn't have a finger in the pie somewhere.Charles said:
Classy bunch, the taipansHurstLlama said:
Nah. The opium wars were about balance of trade. We wanted to buy their tea but they would only accept hard cash (well silver actually) in payment. So we started to flog them opium, grown in India, which they paid for in silver we we then used to buy the tea that we wanted. The Chinese didn't like having their population corrupted by narcotics and moved to stop its import. We didn't like that and so we had the opium war, which led amongst other things to the founding of Hong Kong as a colony.OldKingCole said:
Isn’t that similar to what we did to them in the Opium Wars?perdix said:
Yebut..... if we keep on buying subsidised Chinese steel we will have no local source of production, no steel jobs, no taxes from steel business or employment.... Maybe that's what the Chinese want, destroy competition and then raise prices when they are sole supplier.rcs1000 said:
Thank you for injecting a bit of economic common sense.Patrick said:
Err...steel is a bulk and universal commodity. Like oil. Or copper. Or refined sugar. It's globally vastly over-produced. We should buy from the best value provider. It is NOT a strategic commodity. China subsidises its vast and inefficient steel industry as a makework exercise. UK taxpayers should be delighted that we're getting cheap steel courtesy of the loony policies of the Chinese leadership and the generosity of the Chinese taxpayer.malcolmg said:I see the Tories are planning to use Chinese steel for the type 26 frigates, what hold do they have over Cameron.
As a fine point of interest, until the 1970s the cap badge of the Royal Hong Police included a depiction of opium barrels.0 -
How fascinating
Britain Elects
61% of Britons believe in equality but do not identity as a feminist, whereas 7% do. 9% believe feminism is irrelevant.
(via Survation)
4% of Britons say they are opposed to feminism, 4% also 'don't know what feminism is'.
(via Survation / 30 Nov - 03 Dec)0 -
By 'big', do you mean too long or too short?Pulpstar said:Ted Cruz at 6-1 looks big to me on Betfair right now.
0 -
I think you are right both about the importance of migration and the most effective way for Leave to play it.isam said:
Of course it is, you are bang rightSeanT said:
Yep, there's been a definite swing to LEAVE and I am sure it is migration/terror that's doing it. i.e. I do not believe the British public have been swayed by earnest Spectator articles about greater free trading opportunities in the EEA and EFTA as against the EU.
Only political nerds (guilty) are even aware of EEA EFTA etc, prob less than 1% of voters. And most of them think its boring.
Cologne/Calais etc will win it for LEAVE if LEAVE is to win. The beauty of it is that LEAVE don't have to mention it... its regularly on every pro EU news broadcast and every pro EU newspapers front page, juxtaposed with establishment suits telling us we are better off in. The perfect storm0 -
Long imo.Richard_Nabavi said:
By 'big', do you mean too long or too short?Pulpstar said:Ted Cruz at 6-1 looks big to me on Betfair right now.
Trump's price seems to have come in entirely at his expense. Bush and Rubio don't seem to have moved. At all.0 -
Agreed.MaxPB said:
The rise of Corbyn also comes into that category for me.rcs1000 said:
I think that's absolutely right.taffys said:''Is that why he said yesterday he wasn’t in a hurry to hold the referendum?''
I dunno. If the continental European politicians wails are even half right, who knows what Europe we will be dealing with in six months anyway. Don;t know about you, but the world feels very volatile to me right now.
One strong theme for me is anti elitism. Anti-Davos. That is what is behind the Trump phenomenon.
My concern is that the rise of economic populism ends up throwing the baby (free trade, free markets) alongside the bathwater (the EU).
Marine Le Pen would be a classic example of this; is there anyone else who think's that France's problems are result of excessive free trade and big business? (As opposed to incredibly high government spending, an appallingly inflexible labour market and the Euro.)0 -
The rise of Corbyn also comes into that category for me.
Yep absolutely, and Corbyn may well score some big (albeit isolated) successes.
0 -
Dair, Don't you know Alex Salmond ordered that personally, did you not get the memoDair said:
Keep trying to avoid the point with the rest of your hypocrit chums.watford30 said:
The steel choice will be up to BAE Systems, Hertel etc but why let the truth get in the way of a McRant.malcolmg said:I see the Tories are planning to use Chinese steel for the type 26 frigates, what hold do they have over Cameron.
The truth certainly seemed irrelevant when the SNPBad rants were being laid at the choice of Dragados, Hochtief, American Bridge, and Morrison Construction to use Chinese steel on the Quensferry Crossing.0 -
rcs1000 said:
Agreed.MaxPB said:
The rise of Corbyn also comes into that category for me.rcs1000 said:
I think that's absolutely right.taffys said:''Is that why he said yesterday he wasn’t in a hurry to hold the referendum?''
I dunno. If the continental European politicians wails are even half right, who knows what Europe we will be dealing with in six months anyway. Don;t know about you, but the world feels very volatile to me right now.
One strong theme for me is anti elitism. Anti-Davos. That is what is behind the Trump phenomenon.
My concern is that the rise of economic populism ends up throwing the baby (free trade, free markets) alongside the bathwater (the EU).
Marine Le Pen would be a classic example of this; is there anyone else who think's that France's problems are result of excessive free trade and big business? (As opposed to incredibly high government spending, an appallingly inflexible labour market and the Euro.)
Realistically the Tories are in charge of the UK for the next decade so I can't see us going protectionist any time soon.rcs1000 said:
Agreed.MaxPB said:
The rise of Corbyn also comes into that category for me.rcs1000 said:
I think that's absolutely right.taffys said:''Is that why he said yesterday he wasn’t in a hurry to hold the referendum?''
I dunno. If the continental European politicians wails are even half right, who knows what Europe we will be dealing with in six months anyway. Don;t know about you, but the world feels very volatile to me right now.
One strong theme for me is anti elitism. Anti-Davos. That is what is behind the Trump phenomenon.
My concern is that the rise of economic populism ends up throwing the baby (free trade, free markets) alongside the bathwater (the EU).
Marine Le Pen would be a classic example of this; is there anyone else who think's that France's problems are result of excessive free trade and big business? (As opposed to incredibly high government spending, an appallingly inflexible labour market and the Euro.)0 -
And Tower Hamlets is part of the UK - yes?SeanT said:
Ah, moderate, kindly Indonesia. Banda Aceh is part of Indonesia, isn't it?CarlottaVance said:For posters who fret about Muslims.....the world's most populous Muslim country, Indonesia, is overwhelmingly opposed to ISIS and their works:
http://jakarta.coconuts.co/2016/01/22/survey-says-953-indonesians-rejected-isis-back-december
And this survey was conducted before the most recent bomb attacks in Jakarta.....
Yes.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-24/indonesian-aceh-province-enacts-islamic-sharia-criminal-code/6882346
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/dateline/story/sharia-showdown0 -
It's funny that you're so concerned with the state of British manufacturing, yet claim to drive a BMW.malcolmg said:
Given we are close to having none left it is not debatableJosiasJessop said:
I've asked this before, but steel is not just steel. There are many specialist alloys with various elements added, eg. vanadium, chromium etc.rcs1000 said:
The Chinese government does not set the price at which Chinese firms sell steel any more than the UK government does.perdix said:
Yebut..... if we keep on buying subsidised Chinese steel we will have no local source of production, no steel jobs, no taxes from steel business or employment.... Maybe that's what the Chinese want, destroy competition and then raise prices when they are sole supplier.rcs1000 said:
Thank you for injecting a bit of economic common sense.Patrick said:
Err...steel is a bulk and universal commodity. Like oil. Or copper. Or refined sugar. It's globally vastly over-produced. We should buy from the best value provider. It is NOT a strategic commodity. China subsidises its vast and inefficient steel industry as a makework exercise. UK taxpayers should be delighted that we're getting cheap steel courtesy of the loony policies of the Chinese leadership and the generosity of the Chinese taxpayer.malcolmg said:I see the Tories are planning to use Chinese steel for the type 26 frigates, what hold do they have over Cameron.
Truth be told, there is too much steel production in the world. Steel mills are going to close in the UK, in China, in Australia, in Germany and in the US. That is a natural part of the business cycle.
The most expensive (the so-called "marginal producer") mills will close. Our steel plants are not cheap by world standards. And local demand for steel is modest.
If we don't have world class steel plants, then we either burden the rest of the economy by supporting them through subsidies or by paying higher prices (which amount to the same thing), or we let them go.
We need to let them go. Propping up uncompetitive industries is a losing game. And it's one where we all pay the price in the long term.
Can any mill produce these steels and swap between them easily, or do they require specialist furnaces, crucibles etc?
Any debate on the industry would rather seem to hang on this question ...0 -
''My concern is that the rise of economic populism ends up throwing the baby (free trade, free markets) alongside the bathwater (the EU). ''
Indeed. Trump's protectionist instincts are a big concern, too.0 -
Yeah; but the risk of soverign default and disorganised exit from the Eurozone seems much diminished. Government debt-to-GDP has peaked in Ireland, Spain, Italy, and Portugal. (Although the last could easily see another serious crisis this year.)SeanT said:
Fair point. I yield. The worst possible time outside Peak Eurogeddon then. Tho of course eurogeddon has not gone away....rcs1000 said:
I would have thought the worst/best [delete as appropriate] would have been at the peak of the Eurozone crisis in 2011, when Leave had a 20% lead.SeanT said:NorfolkTilIDie said:
So why do you think eurosceptics aren't making this argument on the telly? Why aren't think tanks making estimates of how many will come here?SeanT said:NorfolkTilIDie said:
If that was really that likely, eurosceptics would be running wild with that. But I only ever hear that in internet comments. That suggests analysis is flawed.SeanT said:NorfolkTilIDie said:
British public don't care how many immigrants go to Germany. They care how many come here.SeanT said:They must be getting worried in Europhile Central (10 Downing St) around about now. This is just too close to be comfortable, and with a spring and summer of migration/eurogeddon to come.
They really could lose this.
Relatedly, Dan Hannan speculates that TEN MILLION migrants might arrive in Europe this year. Ten. Million.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3409449/If-Brussels-bullies-like-think-like-vote-stay-writes-Conservative-MEP-DANIEL-HANNAN.html
Seems unlikely to me, but even if it is just half of that, it could be apocalyptic, presaging LEAVE
Yesterday also proved that the only people unaware of this self evident fact are pb's most ardent europhiles.
And presumably you don't link this to the swing to LEAVE now being shown in various polls?
You might be better off commenting on a less demanding website.
I spose they could be waiting for final couple of weeks to drop such estimates.
Right now, it's looking like the europhile Tories have picked the worse POSSIBLE time to have a referendum on Europe.0 -
This seems a bit odd, not least from the viewpoint of restrictions imposed without a conviction. Do we know what it's about?
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/01/22/north-yorkshire-police-man-banned-sex-york_n_9047902.html?icid=maing-grid7|uk|dl1|sec1_lnk2&pLid=4227790 -
There's some logic to that. Both Trump and Cruz are hated by the establishment and are running on an anti-establishment platform. Trump just does it better (except for the evangelicals).Pulpstar said:Long imo.
Trump's price seems to have come in entirely at his expense. Bush and Rubio don't seem to have moved. At all.0 -
He continues to "fight for a better deal"...SeanT said:taffys question from yesterday looks more and more relevant. Let's say Cameron gets his deal in March. But let's say, as well, that the polls stay resolutely depressing, for him - pointing to a narrow LEAVE victory.
What does he do then? Risk it? I find it hard to believe he'd risk his entire reputation that way. But he'd need some reason to delay. And what if the polls still don't budge?0 -
Nice chart
Labour supporters more likely to be on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram than Tories https://t.co/JoppF2203v https://t.co/dXxndLQF2u0 -
I think France leaving the Euro and letting the Franc depreciate to its real value would help, but it is a temporary fix, but it would also help with the first point as they would be able to inflate away some of the debt and with some spending restraint they could also fix the high government spending issue.rcs1000 said:
Agreed.MaxPB said:
The rise of Corbyn also comes into that category for me.rcs1000 said:
I think that's absolutely right.taffys said:''Is that why he said yesterday he wasn’t in a hurry to hold the referendum?''
I dunno. If the continental European politicians wails are even half right, who knows what Europe we will be dealing with in six months anyway. Don;t know about you, but the world feels very volatile to me right now.
One strong theme for me is anti elitism. Anti-Davos. That is what is behind the Trump phenomenon.
My concern is that the rise of economic populism ends up throwing the baby (free trade, free markets) alongside the bathwater (the EU).
Marine Le Pen would be a classic example of this; is there anyone else who think's that France's problems are result of excessive free trade and big business? (As opposed to incredibly high government spending, an appallingly inflexible labour market and the Euro.)
I honestly don't think anyone can fix the endemic issues with the French labour market. Look at when Sarkozy tried to do it, the whole country just went on strike for days. The culture of "I'll work when I feel like it" is just to ingrained into their national psyche.0 -
NickPalmer said:
This seems a bit odd, not least from the viewpoint of restrictions imposed without a conviction. Do we know what it's about?
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/01/22/north-yorkshire-police-man-banned-sex-york_n_9047902.html?icid=maing-grid7|uk|dl1|sec1_lnk2&pLid=422779
More to the point.how’s it going to be enforced?0 -
I'm looking forward to your series of messages sometime around the end of April or so confidently proclaiming that the Remain victory was never in doubt and that everyone has been far too engrossed in what was always a foregone conclusion.SeanT said:taffys question from yesterday looks more and more relevant. Let's say Cameron gets his deal in March. But let's say, as well, that the polls stay resolutely depressing, for him - pointing to a narrow LEAVE victory.
What does he do then? Risk it? I find it hard to believe he'd endanger his entire reputation that way - go down as the PM who took us out of the EU. His banker friends and Notting Hill chums would never forgive him.
But he'd need some reason to delay. And what if the polls still don't budge?
You'll have at least four more changes of mind before the final result, of course.0 -
I think "some" is right.Richard_Nabavi said:
There's some logic to that. Both Trump and Cruz are hated by the establishment and are running on an anti-establishment platform. Trump just does it better (except for the evangelicals).Pulpstar said:Long imo.
Trump's price seems to have come in entirely at his expense. Bush and Rubio don't seem to have moved. At all.
You could point to substantial differences in some policy areas such that, should one of them drop out, as ever the transfer percentage would be some way from 100%.
I think the reason the odds are zero sum is because either Cruz gets momentum from Iowa and damages Trump (but goes up himself) or he doesn't and damages himself. Whether Rubio or Bush can launch a comeback is not particularly dependent on Iowa (actually an interesting question!).0 -
One final thing to note from the PSF release, interesting to see that corporation tax is almost back to pre-crisis levels in cash terms despite being cut by 8p. A fair amount of inflation will have helped but there has definitely been a marked increase in business activity and less tax avoidance.0
-
We must never lose track of the the fact that if we vote to leave then it will be the majority of the voters in the UK who want it that way..so be it .. we will move on to the next stage0
-
No claim, just a fact. I doubt anyone on this site has 100% British goods given the state of British Manufacturing. You clearly miss the point that this Government like previous ones does little to support British Companies and is happy to sell them off and give preference to foreign goods etc. This policy will ensure that we go even further down the toilet as there can only be so many people working as Bankers, burger flippers and coffee makers.watford30 said:
It's funny that you're so concerned with the state of British manufacturing, yet claim to drive a BMW.malcolmg said:
Given we are close to having none left it is not debatableJosiasJessop said:
I've asked this before, but steel is not just steel. There are many specialist alloys with various elements added, eg. vanadium, chromium etc.rcs1000 said:perdix said:
Yebut..... if we keep on buying subsidised Chinese steel we will have no local source of production, no steel jobs, no taxes from steel business or employment.... Maybe that's what the Chinese want, destroy competition and then raise prices when they are sole supplier.rcs1000 said:
Thank you for injecting a bit of economic common sense.Patrick said:
Err...steel is a bulk and universal commodity. Like oil. Or copper. Or refined sugar. It's globally vastly over-produced. We should buy from the best value provider. It is NOT a strategic commodity. China subsidises its vast and inefficient steel industry as a makework exercise. UK taxpayers should be delighted that we're getting cheap steel courtesy of the loony policies of the Chinese leadership and the generosity of the Chinese taxpayer.malcolmg said:I see the Tories are planning to use Chinese steel for the type 26 frigates, what hold do they have over Cameron.
We need to let them go. Propping up uncompetitive industries is a losing game. And it's one where we all pay the price in the long term.
Can any mill produce these steels and swap between them easily, or do they require specialist furnaces, crucibles etc?
Any debate on the industry would rather seem to hang on this question ...
Investing our tax income in local production is a virtuous circle, given it to the Chinese for "Cheap shoddy goods" is infantile and stupid.0 -
I made a deliberate decision to avoid spending money with Amazon a few years ago. Everytime I now have a choice of another website I use that rather than Amazon. I have been an Amazon customer since at least 1999.DecrepitJohnL said:
Whatever Amazon employees do all day, it isn't writing cheques to HMRC.Innocent_Abroad said:
What on earth do they all do all day?FrancisUrquhart said:Amazon has says it will take on 2,500 new permanent staff in the UK this year, bringing its total number of UK employees to 14,000.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-353798610 -
''Both Trump and Cruz are hated by the establishment and are running on an anti-establishment platform. ''
True but one will in the end be beholden to that establishment for money, and one won't. That is Trump's key selling point, isn't it? he can say what he likes because he's a billionaire.0 -
Don't forget the MAJOR PANIC!!!!!! Where CAMERON ABSOLUTELY MUST DO SOMETHING (unspecified) because of one rogue YouGov poll.......AlastairMeeks said:
I'm looking forward to your series of messages sometime around the end of April or so confidently proclaiming that the Remain victory was never in doubt and that everyone has been far too engrossed in what was always a foregone conclusion.SeanT said:taffys question from yesterday looks more and more relevant. Let's say Cameron gets his deal in March. But let's say, as well, that the polls stay resolutely depressing, for him - pointing to a narrow LEAVE victory.
What does he do then? Risk it? I find it hard to believe he'd endanger his entire reputation that way - go down as the PM who took us out of the EU. His banker friends and Notting Hill chums would never forgive him.
But he'd need some reason to delay. And what if the polls still don't budge?
You'll have at least four more changes of mind before the final result, of course.
Never a dull moment!
Meanwhile, steadier nerves.....
0 -
France needs a sensible Eurosceptic party.MaxPB said:
I think France leaving the Euro and letting the Franc depreciate to its real value would help, but it is a temporary fix, but it would also help with the first point as they would be able to inflate away some of the debt and with some spending restraint they could also fix the high government spending issue.rcs1000 said:
Agreed.MaxPB said:
The rise of Corbyn also comes into that category for me.rcs1000 said:
I think that's absolutely right.taffys said:''Is that why he said yesterday he wasn’t in a hurry to hold the referendum?''
I dunno. If the continental European politicians wails are even half right, who knows what Europe we will be dealing with in six months anyway. Don;t know about you, but the world feels very volatile to me right now.
One strong theme for me is anti elitism. Anti-Davos. That is what is behind the Trump phenomenon.
My concern is that the rise of economic populism ends up throwing the baby (free trade, free markets) alongside the bathwater (the EU).
Marine Le Pen would be a classic example of this; is there anyone else who think's that France's problems are result of excessive free trade and big business? (As opposed to incredibly high government spending, an appallingly inflexible labour market and the Euro.)
I honestly don't think anyone can fix the endemic issues with the French labour market. Look at when Sarkozy tried to do it, the whole country just went on strike for days. The culture of "I'll work when I feel like it" is just to ingrained into their national psyche.
Leaving the Euro while raising public spending (as is FN policy), introducing new taxes on business, and increasing protectionism isn't going to make the country a better place. I would also point out that the FN wants to make it harder for businesses to let workers go...
Essentially, the FN solves one of France's three problems. But makes the other two much worse.0 -
Billionaire Trump and all his inherited wealth is anti elitism?rcs1000 said:
I think that's absolutely right.taffys said:''Is that why he said yesterday he wasn’t in a hurry to hold the referendum?''
I dunno. If the continental European politicians wails are even half right, who knows what Europe we will be dealing with in six months anyway. Don;t know about you, but the world feels very volatile to me right now.
One strong theme for me is anti elitism. Anti-Davos. That is what is behind the Trump phenomenon.0 -
From people I have talked to, the point about migrants getting EU passports and coming to UK don't occur to them. If it was really going to happen eurosceptics should nention it more. At least in passing.0
-
MG Speaking from the heart of British Industry....Ayrshire
0 -
Minor Euro-news: 35 prominent Pirate Party people in Germany have switched their support to the Left Party as the "only real anti-establishment party", amid speculation that the Pirates are close to collapse. Typically it was announced on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/dielinkeberlin/status/690228315257454593/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
That makes you a Europhile, apparently.SeanT said:I am still genuinely undecided on this issue..
0 -
Also possibly of interest: Andy Burnham going well beyond either front bench on Litvinienko:
http://labourlist.org/2016/01/burnham-litvinenko-death-was-an-unparalleled-act-of-state-sponsored-terrorism/
0 -
Talking of anti-establishment parties, whatever happened to the Five Star Movement?0
-
I'm not sure which way I'm going to vote on this one either. I'd be in favour of Leave on the basis that this town needs an enema, but I don't like the look of the people dangling the hosepipe.SeanT said:
Oh, I think I can do more than four, old boy. I can do four in a DAY.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm looking forward to your series of messages sometime around the end of April or so confidently proclaiming that the Remain victory was never in doubt and that everyone has been far too engrossed in what was always a foregone conclusion.SeanT said:taffys question from yesterday looks more and more relevant. Let's say Cameron gets his deal in March. But let's say, as well, that the polls stay resolutely depressing, for him - pointing to a narrow LEAVE victory.
What does he do then? Risk it? I find it hard to believe he'd endanger his entire reputation that way - go down as the PM who took us out of the EU. His banker friends and Notting Hill chums would never forgive him.
But he'd need some reason to delay. And what if the polls still don't budge?
You'll have at least four more changes of mind before the final result, of course.
I am still genuinely undecided on this issue. I really don't know which way I will vote. It's an unusual position for me, before an election I am generally 95-100% certain where I'll put my cross.0 -
I imagine you will get the same take-up which I got when they were forecasting Cameron wouldn't hold an EU referendum if he got a majority.rcs1000 said:
Come on guys.rcs1000 said:Would anyone like a bet with me?
£1,000 says Germany does not loosen it's citizenship requirements in the next 12 months.
SeanT?
Everyone was forecasting this yesterday. Someone put their money where their mouth is.0 -
Better than baloney from Italy. Unionists wrecked all the industry in Ayrshire.richardDodd said:MG Speaking from the heart of British Industry....Ayrshire
0 -
They've been surging. They're now on around 26% against something in the low 30s for the Renzi's PD. Forza Italia's on about 10%, and LN/NcS is on about 15%.Richard_Nabavi said:Talking of anti-establishment parties, whatever happened to the Five Star Movement?
0 -
If we get regular double-digit leads for Leave *after* Cameron has waved his deal in the air, then I might start to believe there's a chance.Sean_F said:
The latest is:-SeanT said:
They must be getting worried in Europhile Central (10 Downing St) around about now. This is just too close to be comfortable, and with a spring and summer of migration/eurogeddon to come.Plato_Says said:Martin Boon
Apol for late arrival. @ICMResearch #euref weekly tracker: Remain In 42%, Leave 40% DK 17% (51 v 49). website post of data shortly.
They really could lose this.
Relatedly, Dan Hannan speculates that TEN MILLION migrants might arrive in Europe this year. Ten. Million.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3409449/If-Brussels-bullies-like-think-like-vote-stay-writes-Conservative-MEP-DANIEL-HANNAN.html
Seems unlikely to me, but even if it is just half of that, it could be apocalyptic, presaging LEAVE
ICM 42/40 Remain
Panelbase 42/45 Leave
Yougov 41/42 Leave
Survation 38/42 Leave
ORB 36/43 Leave0 -
Why don't you practice what you preach?malcolmg said:
No claim, just a fact. I doubt anyone on this site has 100% British goods given the state of British Manufacturing. You clearly miss the point that this Government like previous ones does little to support British Companies and is happy to sell them off and give preference to foreign goods etc. This policy will ensure that we go even further down the toilet as there can only be so many people working as Bankers, burger flippers and coffee makers.watford30 said:
It's funny that you're so concerned with the state of British manufacturing, yet claim to drive a BMW.malcolmg said:
Given we are close to having none left it is not debatableJosiasJessop said:
I've asked this before, but steel is not just steel. There are many specialist alloys with various elements added, eg. vanadium, chromium etc.rcs1000 said:perdix said:
Yebut..... if we keep on buying subsidised Chinese steel we will have no local source of production, no steel jobs, no taxes from steel business or employment.... Maybe that's what the Chinese want, destroy competition and then raise prices when they are sole supplier.rcs1000 said:
Thank you for injecting a bit of economic common sense.Patrick said:
Err...steel is a bulk and universal commodity. Like oil. Or copper. Or refined sugar. It's globally vastly over-produced. We should buy from the best value provider. It is NOT a strategic commodity. China subsidises its vast and inefficient steel industry as a makework exercise. UK taxpayers should be delighted that we're getting cheap steel courtesy of the loony policies of the Chinese leadership and the generosity of the Chinese taxpayer.malcolmg said:I see the Tories are planning to use Chinese steel for the type 26 frigates, what hold do they have over Cameron.
We need to let them go. Propping up uncompetitive industries is a losing game. And it's one where we all pay the price in the long term.
Can any mill produce these steels and swap between them easily, or do they require specialist furnaces, crucibles etc?
Any debate on the industry would rather seem to hang on this question ...
Investing our tax income in local production is a virtuous circle, given it to the Chinese for "Cheap shoddy goods" is infantile and stupid.
Why did you fail to buy a British built, but not necessarily sourced, Land Rover, for instance? I'll guess it was for the same reasons that shipbuilders buy steel overseas. Quality, price, spec, availability and value for money.
0 -
OK. Next three years.SeanT said:
Don't be a dick. No one was forecasting that it would happen THIS YEAR. Yawn.rcs1000 said:
Come on guys.rcs1000 said:Would anyone like a bet with me?
£1,000 says Germany does not loosen it's citizenship requirements in the next 12 months.
SeanT?
Everyone was forecasting this yesterday. Someone put their money where their mouth is.
Better?0 -
The Chinese don't generally make "Cheap shoddy goods" - apart from the cheap toy end of the market, where that is what they aim for. Their steel (at the various grades) is as good as any (in general)..malcolmg said:
No claim, just a fact. I doubt anyone on this site has 100% British goods given the state of British Manufacturing. You clearly miss the point that this Government like previous ones does little to support British Companies and is happy to sell them off and give preference to foreign goods etc. This policy will ensure that we go even further down the toilet as there can only be so many people working as Bankers, burger flippers and coffee makers.watford30 said:
It's funny that you're so concerned with the state of British manufacturing, yet claim to drive a BMW.malcolmg said:
Given we are close to having none left it is not debatableJosiasJessop said:
I've asked this before, but steel is not just steel. There are many specialist alloys with various elements added, eg. vanadium, chromium etc.rcs1000 said:perdix said:
Yebut..... if we keep on buying subsidised Chinese steel we will have no local source of production, no steel jobs, no taxes from steel business or employment.... Maybe that's what the Chinese want, destroy competition and then raise prices when they are sole supplier.rcs1000 said:
We need to let them go. Propping up uncompetitive industries is a losing game. And it's one where we all pay the price in the long term.
Can any mill produce these steels and swap between them easily, or do they require specialist furnaces, crucibles etc?
Any debate on the industry would rather seem to hang on this question ...
Investing our tax income in local production is a virtuous circle, given it to the Chinese for "Cheap shoddy goods" is infantile and stupid.
At one point it was cheaper to buy Chinese cutlery an melt it than to buy stainless steel from a UK mill.
Dumping isn't the real story - that's is just the story of moment. In the long run, making a good or better product for less and you will win.
In the longer term the Chinese advantage in manufacturing is just about gone. If you multiply productivity by wages, it is now cheaper to build factories in the US (lots of automation, rather than cheap workers) - look where the new Mac Pro is made...0 -
Gaz Cornfield
The UK "news" editor of Putin propaganda channel Russia Today is also an Amnesty International press officer. RE https://t.co/scrBHI9Ar50 -
Oh I know, I was just pointing out that in theory leaving the Eurozone could help with two out of the three problems. FN aren't going to do that though, they will put up trade barriers and ramp up protectionism with retaliatory moves from other countries.rcs1000 said:
France needs a sensible Eurosceptic party.MaxPB said:
I think France leaving the Euro and letting the Franc depreciate to its real value would help, but it is a temporary fix, but it would also help with the first point as they would be able to inflate away some of the debt and with some spending restraint they could also fix the high government spending issue.rcs1000 said:
Agreed.MaxPB said:
The rise of Corbyn also comes into that category for me.rcs1000 said:
I think that's absolutely right.taffys said:''Is that why he said yesterday he wasn’t in a hurry to hold the referendum?''
I dunno. If the continental European politicians wails are even half right, who knows what Europe we will be dealing with in six months anyway. Don;t know about you, but the world feels very volatile to me right now.
One strong theme for me is anti elitism. Anti-Davos. That is what is behind the Trump phenomenon.
My concern is that the rise of economic populism ends up throwing the baby (free trade, free markets) alongside the bathwater (the EU).
Marine Le Pen would be a classic example of this; is there anyone else who think's that France's problems are result of excessive free trade and big business? (As opposed to incredibly high government spending, an appallingly inflexible labour market and the Euro.)
I honestly don't think anyone can fix the endemic issues with the French labour market. Look at when Sarkozy tried to do it, the whole country just went on strike for days. The culture of "I'll work when I feel like it" is just to ingrained into their national psyche.
Leaving the Euro while raising public spending (as is FN policy), introducing new taxes on business, and increasing protectionism isn't going to make the country a better place. I would also point out that the FN wants to make it harder for businesses to let workers go...
Essentially, the FN solves one of France's three problems. But makes the other two much worse.0 -
Fascinated to find out what major industry in Ayrshire has been "wiped out"0
-
If anything they will make it harder to become a citizen for asylum seekers so they can be easily resettled to Syria if the situation is ever resolved. I highly doubt they will want to hand out German citizenship the new arrivals so quickly.rcs1000 said:
Come on guys.rcs1000 said:Would anyone like a bet with me?
£1,000 says Germany does not loosen it's citizenship requirements in the next 12 months.
SeanT?
Everyone was forecasting this yesterday. Someone put their money where their mouth is.0 -
@JeremyCliffe: Podemos proposes coalition with PSOE and IU, with Iglesias as deputy PM. Key shift: now downplaying former insistence on Catalan referendum.0
-
go look it up stupidrichardDodd said:Fascinated to find out what major industry in Ayrshire has been "wiped out"
0 -
@MrG - Many happy returns of the day – you old git
0 -
Well, it cant be whining......richardDodd said:Fascinated to find out what major industry in Ayrshire has been "wiped out"
0 -
The most likely place, I'd reckon, to elect a sensible Eurosceptic government would be Italy. It's got by far the weakest support for the Euro of EZ countries, and its bearing the brunt of immigration across the Med.MaxPB said:
Oh I know, I was just pointing out that in theory leaving the Eurozone could help with two out of the three problems. FN aren't going to do that though, they will put up trade barriers and ramp up protectionism with retaliatory moves from other countries.rcs1000 said:
France needs a sensible Eurosceptic party.MaxPB said:
I think France leaving the Euro and letting the Franc depreciate to its real value would help, but it is a temporary fix, but it would also help with the first point as they would be able to inflate away some of the debt and with some spending restraint they could also fix the high government spending issue.rcs1000 said:
Agreed.MaxPB said:
The rise of Corbyn also comes into that category for me.rcs1000 said:I think that's absolutely right.
My concern is that the rise of economic populism ends up throwing the baby (free trade, free markets) alongside the bathwater (the EU).
Marine Le Pen would be a classic example of this; is there anyone else who think's that France's problems are result of excessive free trade and big business? (As opposed to incredibly high government spending, an appallingly inflexible labour market and the Euro.)
I honestly don't think anyone can fix the endemic issues with the French labour market. Look at when Sarkozy tried to do it, the whole country just went on strike for days. The culture of "I'll work when I feel like it" is just to ingrained into their national psyche.
Leaving the Euro while raising public spending (as is FN policy), introducing new taxes on business, and increasing protectionism isn't going to make the country a better place. I would also point out that the FN wants to make it harder for businesses to let workers go...
Essentially, the FN solves one of France's three problems. But makes the other two much worse.
The problem there is that the Right Wing is split between LN and Forza Italia. If they could unite (and cast off Berlusconi), then you could really see a shock.
The Five Star Movement, on the other hand, is a bunch of incoherent student policies. And it veers from Euroscepticism to plans for a single European government on a monthly basis.0 -
My mother's family mainly - we chaired the East India Company a couple of times as well as sitting on the board for a lot of the nineteenth century plus had interests in Ceylon.HurstLlama said:
For a bunch of pirates and smugglers, yes. Was your family engaged out East, Mr. Charles? I have never heard of them being mentioned but so much money was being made I'd be surprised if they didn't have a finger in the pie somewhere.Charles said:
Classy bunch, the taipansHurstLlama said:
Nah. The opium wars were about balance of trade. We wanted to buy their tea but they would only accept hard cash (well silver actually) in payment. So we started to flog them opium, grown in India, which they paid for in silver we we then used to buy the tea that we wanted. The Chinese didn't like having their population corrupted by narcotics and moved to stop its import. We didn't like that and so we had the opium war, which led amongst other things to the founding of Hong Kong as a colony.OldKingCole said:
Isn’t that similar to what we did to them in the Opium Wars?perdix said:
Yebut..... if we keep on buying subsidised Chinese steel we will have no local source of production, no steel jobs, no taxes from steel business or employment.... Maybe that's what the Chinese want, destroy competition and then raise prices when they are sole supplier.rcs1000 said:
Thank you for injecting a bit of economic common sense.Patrick said:
Err...steel is a bulk and universal commodity. Like oil. Or copper. Or refined sugar. It's globally vastly over-produced. We should buy from the best value provider. It is NOT a strategic commodity. China subsidises its vast and inefficient steel industry as a makework exercise. UK taxpayers should be delighted that we're getting cheap steel courtesy of the loony policies of the Chinese leadership and the generosity of the Chinese taxpayer.malcolmg said:I see the Tories are planning to use Chinese steel for the type 26 frigates, what hold do they have over Cameron.
As a fine point of interest, until the 1970s the cap badge of the Royal Hong Police included a depiction of opium barrels.
My father's family was too busy messing about in Wiltshire to actually do any work.0 -
Still plugging away, Lega Nord are the party to watch at the moment. Outpolling Forza Italia at the moment and if M5S do well Italy could end up with a M5S+LN coalition in 2018.Richard_Nabavi said:Talking of anti-establishment parties, whatever happened to the Five Star Movement?
0 -
It would be electoral suicide for any German political party (except possibly the Greens) to suggest making it easier for asylum seekers to become German.MaxPB said:
If anything they will make it harder to become a citizen for asylum seekers so they can be easily resettled to Syria if the situation is ever resolved. I highly doubt they will want to hand out German citizenship the new arrivals so quickly.rcs1000 said:
Come on guys.rcs1000 said:Would anyone like a bet with me?
£1,000 says Germany does not loosen it's citizenship requirements in the next 12 months.
SeanT?
Everyone was forecasting this yesterday. Someone put their money where their mouth is.0 -
Cattle fondling, and something to do with turnips.richardDodd said:Fascinated to find out what major industry in Ayrshire has been "wiped out"
0 -
For me I'm not undecided: if we Leave our destiny is in our own hands; if we Remain it's putting faith in the hands of others.
I know that if I vote Remain out of fear/apprehension I would always feel culpable for what followed - I might regret it for the rest of my life.
I will never regret voting to give this country back self-governance.0 -
Absurd. We have no control over what other people do with 'their immigrants' but for some strange reason we remain helpless? How does Germany get all these people through the gates of Britain - cattle trucks?SeanT said:
Nope. It's an unframeable bet anyway. My argument is that one or more refugee-laden countries will find some way to unburden themselves, and we won't be able to do anything about it.rcs1000 said:
OK. Next three years.SeanT said:
Don't be a dick. No one was forecasting that it would happen THIS YEAR. Yawn.rcs1000 said:
Come on guys.rcs1000 said:Would anyone like a bet with me?
£1,000 says Germany does not loosen it's citizenship requirements in the next 12 months.
SeanT?
Everyone was forecasting this yesterday. Someone put their money where their mouth is.
Better?
It might be a relaxation of citizenship laws, it might be special dispensation for asylum seekers alone, it might be a new EU wide agreement to let them move (look how the EU is right now forcing us to take a quota, or else - this wasn't meant to be possible outside Schengen).
The salient point is we have no control over what our EU partners decide to "do with" their immigrants. What we DO know is that the UK is a prime destination for all of them, due to the English language, generous benefits, etc0 -
M5S have said they won't go into coalition with anyone. That might change, of course.MaxPB said:
Still plugging away, Lega Nord are the party to watch at the moment. Outpolling Forza Italia at the moment and if M5S do well Italy could end up with a M5S+LN coalition in 2018.Richard_Nabavi said:Talking of anti-establishment parties, whatever happened to the Five Star Movement?
0 -
I think they hope to "unburden" themselves by sending them back to Syria one day. Seems unrealistic at the moment.SeanT said:
Nope. It's an unframeable bet anyway. My argument is that one or more refugee-laden countries will find some way to unburden themselves, and we won't be able to do anything about it.rcs1000 said:
OK. Next three years.SeanT said:
Don't be a dick. No one was forecasting that it would happen THIS YEAR. Yawn.rcs1000 said:
Come on guys.rcs1000 said:Would anyone like a bet with me?
£1,000 says Germany does not loosen it's citizenship requirements in the next 12 months.
SeanT?
Everyone was forecasting this yesterday. Someone put their money where their mouth is.
Better?
It might be a relaxation of citizenship laws, it might be special dispensation for asylum seekers alone, it might be a new EU wide agreement to let them move (look how the EU is right now forcing us to take a quota, or else - this wasn't meant to be possible outside Schengen).
The salient point is we have no control over what our EU partners decide to "do with" their immigrants. What we DO know is that the UK is a prime destination for all of them, due to the English language, generous benefits, etc0 -
I really couldn't care less what nasty demagogues like Putin or their sock-puppets think about what Britain should or shouldn't do regarding its self-governance.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm not sure which way I'm going to vote on this one either. I'd be in favour of Leave on the basis that this town needs an enema, but I don't like the look of the people dangling the hosepipe.SeanT said:
Oh, I think I can do more than four, old boy. I can do four in a DAY.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm looking forward to your series of messages sometime around the end of April or so confidently proclaiming that the Remain victory was never in doubt and that everyone has been far too engrossed in what was always a foregone conclusion.SeanT said:taffys question from yesterday looks more and more relevant. Let's say Cameron gets his deal in March. But let's say, as well, that the polls stay resolutely depressing, for him - pointing to a narrow LEAVE victory.
What does he do then? Risk it? I find it hard to believe he'd endanger his entire reputation that way - go down as the PM who took us out of the EU. His banker friends and Notting Hill chums would never forgive him.
But he'd need some reason to delay. And what if the polls still don't budge?
You'll have at least four more changes of mind before the final result, of course.
I am still genuinely undecided on this issue. I really don't know which way I will vote. It's an unusual position for me, before an election I am generally 95-100% certain where I'll put my cross.
It's absolutely none of their business and they won't influence me one way or another.
To let them have any such influence would be to concede them a power they don't deserve to have.0 -
We are always putting faith in the hands of others. The question is: which others do we put our faith in? Neither camp inspires any confidence at all.Casino_Royale said:For me I'm not undecided: if we Leave our destiny is in our own hands; if we Remain it's putting faith in the hands of others.
I know that if I vote Remain out of fear/apprehension I would always feel culpable for what followed - I might regret it for the rest of my life.
I will never regret voting to give this country back self-governance.0 -
MG So you obviously do not have a clue as to what major Ayrshire industry was "wiped out"...figures..0
-
M5S is still just Bepe Grillo's plaything which is an issue. Like UKIP they aren't professional enough.rcs1000 said:The most likely place, I'd reckon, to elect a sensible Eurosceptic government would be Italy. It's got by far the weakest support for the Euro of EZ countries, and its bearing the brunt of immigration across the Med.
The problem there is that the Right Wing is split between LN and Forza Italia. If they could unite (and cast off Berlusconi), then you could really see a shock.
The Five Star Movement, on the other hand, is a bunch of incoherent student policies. And it veers from Euroscepticism to plans for a single European government on a monthly basis.
As for LN vs FI. I'm sure FI would be interested in merging, but I doubt LN would given the seepage over the last two years. I've heard that some LN members think that if they outperform FI in the election then they can begin to campaign as the main party of the right wing which will help them break through the barrier which haunts parties like them (and UKIP).0 -
They can't enter the UK unless they are a citizen of an EEA country.SeanT said:
Nope. It's an unframeable bet anyway. My argument is that one or more refugee-laden countries will find some way to unburden themselves, and we won't be able to do anything about it.rcs1000 said:
OK. Next three years.SeanT said:
Don't be a dick. No one was forecasting that it would happen THIS YEAR. Yawn.rcs1000 said:
Come on guys.rcs1000 said:Would anyone like a bet with me?
£1,000 says Germany does not loosen it's citizenship requirements in the next 12 months.
SeanT?
Everyone was forecasting this yesterday. Someone put their money where their mouth is.
Better?
It might be a relaxation of citizenship laws, it might be special dispensation for asylum seekers alone, it might be a new EU wide agreement to let them move (look how the EU is right now forcing us to take a quota, or else - this wasn't meant to be possible outside Schengen).
The salient point is we have no control over what our EU partners decide to "do with" their immigrants. What we DO know is that the UK is a prime destination for all of them, due to the English language, generous benefits, etc
Perhaps one of our lawyers could let us know if there is any way under our existing treaties to require us to admit a non-citizen? (Other than, of course, people appealing to British judges under the auspices of the European Convention on Hunam Rights.)0 -
Student politics eh...rcs1000 said:
M5S have said they won't go into coalition with anyone. That might change, of course.MaxPB said:
Still plugging away, Lega Nord are the party to watch at the moment. Outpolling Forza Italia at the moment and if M5S do well Italy could end up with a M5S+LN coalition in 2018.Richard_Nabavi said:Talking of anti-establishment parties, whatever happened to the Five Star Movement?
0 -
If they were made German citizens early (as Sean is suggesting) then they would be able to come here via freedom of movement.flightpath01 said:
Absurd. We have no control over what other people do with 'their immigrants' but for some strange reason we remain helpless? How does Germany get all these people through the gates of Britain - cattle trucks?SeanT said:
Nope. It's an unframeable bet anyway. My argument is that one or more refugee-laden countries will find some way to unburden themselves, and we won't be able to do anything about it.rcs1000 said:
OK. Next three years.SeanT said:
Don't be a dick. No one was forecasting that it would happen THIS YEAR. Yawn.rcs1000 said:
Come on guys.rcs1000 said:Would anyone like a bet with me?
£1,000 says Germany does not loosen it's citizenship requirements in the next 12 months.
SeanT?
Everyone was forecasting this yesterday. Someone put their money where their mouth is.
Better?
It might be a relaxation of citizenship laws, it might be special dispensation for asylum seekers alone, it might be a new EU wide agreement to let them move (look how the EU is right now forcing us to take a quota, or else - this wasn't meant to be possible outside Schengen).
The salient point is we have no control over what our EU partners decide to "do with" their immigrants. What we DO know is that the UK is a prime destination for all of them, due to the English language, generous benefits, etc0 -
Interesting article http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-impact/missing-non-voters-and-misweighted-samples-understanding-the-great-british-polling-miss
It looks at the 2015 polling problems and compares the 2010 election where the libdems were 4% over estimate and concludes a similar issue arose on not polling enough non voters.0 -
Absolutely. If the German government changes citizenship rules, then they would be able to come to the UK.MaxPB said:
If they were made German citizens early (as Sean is suggesting) then they would be able to come here via freedom of movement.flightpath01 said:
Absurd. We have no control over what other people do with 'their immigrants' but for some strange reason we remain helpless? How does Germany get all these people through the gates of Britain - cattle trucks?SeanT said:
Nope. It's an unframeable bet anyway. My argument is that one or more refugee-laden countries will find some way to unburden themselves, and we won't be able to do anything about it.rcs1000 said:
OK. Next three years.SeanT said:
Don't be a dick. No one was forecasting that it would happen THIS YEAR. Yawn.rcs1000 said:
Come on guys.rcs1000 said:Would anyone like a bet with me?
£1,000 says Germany does not loosen it's citizenship requirements in the next 12 months.
SeanT?
Everyone was forecasting this yesterday. Someone put their money where their mouth is.
Better?
It might be a relaxation of citizenship laws, it might be special dispensation for asylum seekers alone, it might be a new EU wide agreement to let them move (look how the EU is right now forcing us to take a quota, or else - this wasn't meant to be possible outside Schengen).
The salient point is we have no control over what our EU partners decide to "do with" their immigrants. What we DO know is that the UK is a prime destination for all of them, due to the English language, generous benefits, etc
But my theory is that it would be electoral suicide for any German political party to suggest making it easier for asylum seekers to become German citizens.0 -
-
I can't claim to be an expert on Ayrshire but in the last few years carpetmaking and whisky blending have both ceased in Kilmarnock alone.richardDodd said:MG So you obviously do not have a clue as to what major Ayrshire industry was "wiped out"...figures..
0 -
From Wikipedia on the M5S:
the M5S is not a party but a "movement" and it may not be included in the traditional left-right paradigm. The "five stars" are a reference to five key issues: public water, sustainable transport, sustainable development, right to Internet access, and environmentalism. The party also advocates direct democracy,[24] the principle of "zero-cost politics",[25] degrowth,[26] and nonviolence.[27]0 -
*Falls off chair*Dair said:
'I can't claim to be an expert on Ayrshire...'richardDodd said:MG So you obviously do not have a clue as to what major Ayrshire industry was "wiped out"...figures..
0 -
Dair... any evidence they were "wiped out" by Unionists0
-
Yes well if the CDU tried to do it now then it would destroy their chances for 2017. I could see a SPD/Green/Left coalition coming close enough to power that the SPD might not want another grand coalition which will just hollow them out further.rcs1000 said:
Absolutely. If the German government changes citizenship rules, then they would be able to come to the UK.MaxPB said:
If they were made German citizens early (as Sean is suggesting) then they would be able to come here via freedom of movement.flightpath01 said:
Absurd. We have no control over what other people do with 'their immigrants' but for some strange reason we remain helpless? How does Germany get all these people through the gates of Britain - cattle trucks?SeanT said:
Nope. It's an unframeable bet anyway. My argument is that one or more refugee-laden countries will find some way to unburden themselves, and we won't be able to do anything about it.rcs1000 said:
OK. Next three years.SeanT said:
Don't be a dick. No one was forecasting that it would happen THIS YEAR. Yawn.rcs1000 said:
Come on guys.rcs1000 said:Would anyone like a bet with me?
£1,000 says Germany does not loosen it's citizenship requirements in the next 12 months.
SeanT?
Everyone was forecasting this yesterday. Someone put their money where their mouth is.
Better?
It might be a relaxation of citizenship laws, it might be special dispensation for asylum seekers alone, it might be a new EU wide agreement to let them move (look how the EU is right now forcing us to take a quota, or else - this wasn't meant to be possible outside Schengen).
The salient point is we have no control over what our EU partners decide to "do with" their immigrants. What we DO know is that the UK is a prime destination for all of them, due to the English language, generous benefits, etc
But my theory is that it would be electoral suicide for any German political party to suggest making it easier for asylum seekers to become German citizens.0 -
When we put our faith of others in the example of our Government, we can vote them out after 5 years if they introduce laws we disagree withAlastairMeeks said:
We are always putting faith in the hands of others. The question is: which others do we put our faith in? Neither camp inspires any confidence at all.Casino_Royale said:For me I'm not undecided: if we Leave our destiny is in our own hands; if we Remain it's putting faith in the hands of others.
I know that if I vote Remain out of fear/apprehension I would always feel culpable for what followed - I might regret it for the rest of my life.
I will never regret voting to give this country back self-governance.
We could still have free movement of people throughout the EU or the world if we left the EU if a party proposed it and they won the election. We could have an extremely Europhile govt outside of the EU, just as Scotland has an extremely pro independence govt while not being independent0 -
SeanT is inventing possibilities out of the top of his head and assuming there is no response.rcs1000 said:
They can't enter the UK unless they are a citizen of an EEA country.SeanT said:
Nope. It's an unframeable bet anyway. My argument is that one or more refugee-laden countries will find some way to unburden themselves, and we won't be able to do anything about it.rcs1000 said:
OK. Next three years.SeanT said:
Don't be a dick. No one was forecasting that it would happen THIS YEAR. Yawn.rcs1000 said:
Come on guys.rcs1000 said:Would anyone like a bet with me?
£1,000 says Germany does not loosen it's citizenship requirements in the next 12 months.
SeanT?
Everyone was forecasting this yesterday. Someone put their money where their mouth is.
Better?
It might be a relaxation of citizenship laws, it might be special dispensation for asylum seekers alone, it might be a new EU wide agreement to let them move (look how the EU is right now forcing us to take a quota, or else - this wasn't meant to be possible outside Schengen).
The salient point is we have no control over what our EU partners decide to "do with" their immigrants. What we DO know is that the UK is a prime destination for all of them, due to the English language, generous benefits, etc
Perhaps one of our lawyers could let us know if there is any way under our existing treaties to require us to admit a non-citizen? (Other than, of course, people appealing to British judges under the auspices of the European Convention on Hunam Rights.)
The best place for these refugees is back in the camps and then back into Syria. This will only happen when the war in Syria ends, but its clear that border controls are being reintroduced and we are no different. So endless millions of people fronting up at Dover is just another Leave scare story. its quite pathetic that their opposition to the EU is reduced to this when it is an issue which has nothing to do with EU fundamentals.0 -
The loss of Whisky blending and bottling was a direct result of the Labour government's failure with regards to the Diageo supermerger. But it's such a tiny aspect of that complete failure it's often ignored as the discussion focuses on the much bigger issues with it such as head office location and size.richardDodd said:Dair... any evidence they were "wiped out" by Unionists
Diageo needs broken up quite urgently, it is quite a destructive influence on the Whisky industry.0 -
To be honest if the Tories went along with that then I think UKIP would be nailed on to win in 2020. The government could just take the Polish route and refuse. It has worked well for the Poles and other Eastern European nations. What are the EU going to do, throw us out just after we've voted to stay in?SeanT said:There's a zillion ways for them to come here. They could just COME HERE, for a start (or there, I'm in Bangkok), like the thousands in Calais. If 4-10m arrive this year, as predicted by some experts, the numbers get so big they would be literally unstoppable.
Then they can appeal to courts, they just need to get one sibling in the UK and in they come, as we now know, or the EU can just decide fuck it, let the British take a million, as they seem to be doing now with quotas, on and on
The history of the UK in the EU is one of constant betrayal, duplicity, broken promises and generalised and often successful attempts to get the UK to agree to something it hates.
Anyone who thinks the immigration crisis will not follow this same pattern is a witless twat.
As it stands the UK and Ireland have permanent opt-outs from any refugee related programmes the EU might be planning. If they tried to rescind those then they might as well throw away any chance of remain winning.0 -
Citizenship of the EU is additional to citizenship of the member states and our treaty obligations depend on the concept of EU citizenship rather than reciprocal arrangements at the national level. In theory there doesn't seem to be anything which explicitly prevents EU citizenship being conferred on someone who is not a citizen of any of the member states.rcs1000 said:
They can't enter the UK unless they are a citizen of an EEA country.SeanT said:
Nope. It's an unframeable bet anyway. My argument is that one or more refugee-laden countries will find some way to unburden themselves, and we won't be able to do anything about it.rcs1000 said:
OK. Next three years.SeanT said:
Don't be a dick. No one was forecasting that it would happen THIS YEAR. Yawn.rcs1000 said:
Come on guys.rcs1000 said:Would anyone like a bet with me?
£1,000 says Germany does not loosen it's citizenship requirements in the next 12 months.
SeanT?
Everyone was forecasting this yesterday. Someone put their money where their mouth is.
Better?
It might be a relaxation of citizenship laws, it might be special dispensation for asylum seekers alone, it might be a new EU wide agreement to let them move (look how the EU is right now forcing us to take a quota, or else - this wasn't meant to be possible outside Schengen).
The salient point is we have no control over what our EU partners decide to "do with" their immigrants. What we DO know is that the UK is a prime destination for all of them, due to the English language, generous benefits, etc
Perhaps one of our lawyers could let us know if there is any way under our existing treaties to require us to admit a non-citizen? (Other than, of course, people appealing to British judges under the auspices of the European Convention on Hunam Rights.)
If the 'solution' to the volume of migrants is to process people at the European level it could lead in some interesting directions.0 -
HMG deliberately stopped buying locally made carpets for the wardrooms on Royal Navy vessels.richardDodd said:Dair... any evidence they were "wiped out" by Unionists
0 -
Just briefly dropping by, but thought my PB tory friends may like to go apoplectic over the progress on junior doctors. Looks like a big government climbdown:
Take a look at @ShaunLintern's Tweet: https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/690472474199334912?s=090 -
10 million this year is too high. That'd be something like 30,000 entering Europe a day, as opposed to the current 2,000. I just don't think there are enough people smugglers or boats to manage the logistics of that.
However, I could easily see it peaking at 8-10k a day over high summer, and perhaps 2-3 million arriving in Europe this year.
No doubt the BBC will continue to focus in on the handful of tearful infants and elderly women, rather than the other 80% that are young (and rather entitled and aggressive) fit men.0 -
There's no way for them to rescind then without our agreement.MaxPB said:
To be honest if the Tories went along with that then I think UKIP would be nailed on to win in 2020. The government could just take the Polish route and refuse. It has worked well for the Poles and other Eastern European nations. What are the EU going to do, throw us out just after we've voted to stay in?SeanT said:There's a zillion ways for them to come here. They could just COME HERE, for a start (or there, I'm in Bangkok), like the thousands in Calais. If 4-10m arrive this year, as predicted by some experts, the numbers get so big they would be literally unstoppable.
Then they can appeal to courts, they just need to get one sibling in the UK and in they come, as we now know, or the EU can just decide fuck it, let the British take a million, as they seem to be doing now with quotas, on and on
The history of the UK in the EU is one of constant betrayal, duplicity, broken promises and generalised and often successful attempts to get the UK to agree to something it hates.
Anyone who thinks the immigration crisis will not follow this same pattern is a witless twat.
As it stands the UK and Ireland have permanent opt-outs from any refugee related programmes the EU might be planning. If they tried to rescind those then they might as well throw away any chance of remain winning.
Where we have a serious problem is that UK courts seem to have a much broader definition of "family life" than anywhere else in Europe.0 -
Dair Obviously the Whisky industry is actually very robust..it should be..I personally buy a lot of it..so that is one industry that is still thriving now what else was "wiped out"0
-
You'd probably infer that anyway from them being younger and better educated. It does reinforce my stereotype of Tories as out of touch and anti-social, which is nice because my experience of actual real life Tories doesn't.Plato_Says said:Nice chart
Labour supporters more likely to be on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram than Tories https://t.co/JoppF2203v https://t.co/dXxndLQF2u0 -
'Confidential offer' leaked like medical records left in a hospital bin.foxinsoxuk said:Just briefly dropping by, but thought my PB tory friends may like to go apoplectic over the progress on junior doctors. Looks like a big government climbdown:
Take a look at @ShaunLintern's Tweet: //twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/690472474199334912?s=09
Still, good to see it confirmed that the dispute really is all about money, rather than working extra hours.0
