politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The doubts over Cruz’s eligibility will hurt him in the eye
Comments
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Ref EURef: we've just received a 4-page 'newspaper' from Britain in Europe through the post. Has anyone else had one of these?0
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More steam engine porn really, seats crustier than a 70"s cinema in Sheffield called Studio 5/6/7 that specialized in films with an 18 certificate.Wanderer said:
Nationalisation porn?bigjohnowls said:Tonights This Week Liz 4% Kendall is on
Another early night for me.
Mind you not sure if i will be able to sleep after the excitment of Railway talk I am attending
Dawn of Nationalisation
Images from the Percy Moseley. Collection from the years 1947, 1948 and 1949.
Should be brilliant
Funnily enough can still remember my first ever film there it was Flesh Gordon0 -
Away from here, politics rarely comes up in conversations I have. But when it does, it seems pretty much everyone I know (largely from the northern suburban middle classes in their 30s and 40s) takes the standard Guardian view of the world. So I'm expecting to be pretty much alone as an outer.CDM said:
I'm not so sure. I work in finance (but not for a bank), and when the topic comes up and I mention that I'm for leave there is genuine surprise. I also met somebody else in the same sector who feels the same way, but wouldn't say so in a discussion forum because she thought she would be alone.Plato_Says said:I think the Cologne Effect and Merkel more generally has made it perfectly acceptable to say Not Here Thanks.
Leave are finally getting their crap together. Remain are by contrast puffing US evil banksters funding them. Awful PR.CDM said:FPT:
Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.
I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?
It might be just a City thing; would be good to hear Charles' view.
I accept that this view is not representative, There must, somewhere, be hidden reserves of outers somewhere (or LEAVE wouldn't be at 40% and above in the polls) just as there are hidden reserves of other Conservative voters and UKIP voters somewhere. But either they don't move in my circles, or they do and they keep quiet.0 -
Yup, they are customising it to each region.david_herdson said:Ref EURef: we've just received a 4-page 'newspaper' from Britain in Europe through the post. Has anyone else had one of these?
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For that matter, should we be seeking to regain sovereignty over the whole of Ireland? Our territorial claim to it is of more recent provenance than Argentina's over the Falklands, and it's closer. It would also meet Jeremy Corbyn's preferred objective of a united Ireland, though not by the route he's envisaged to date.logical_song said:
In which case, what about Gibraltar and the Channel Islands?MarkHopkins said:
Corbyn: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st Century we could get into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it."Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq
The Islands that are 300 miles away?
He can't even get his facts straight.0 -
No.MarkHopkins said:
Irrelevant to the point.logical_song said:
In which case, what about Gibraltar and the Channel Islands?MarkHopkins said:
Corbyn: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st Century we could get into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it."Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq
The Islands that are 300 miles away?
He can't even get his facts straight.
Gibraltar is just off Spain and the Channel Islands are just off France. If you want to negotiate with Argentina about Falklands sovereignty then why not with Spain about Gibraltar?
Corbyn should make his views on that clear.0 -
Why "Undecideds" in quotes? Are you implying there are no genuine undecideds?blackburn63 said:
The "undecideds" are attempting to muddy the waters with "ah but what happens if we leave" nonsense, knowing that Leave means humiliation for Dave. Of course millions will, metaphorically, stand on the breakwater at Dover, look at the camps in Calais and ignore the nuances of the EEA, ECHR, ECJ, etc etc and decide they've had enough.SeanT said:I'm off to the gym, good evening to all, for now.
If this debate has proved one thing, it's that europhiles have absolutely no answer to the migration problem/issue - they don't even properly understand it. They do understand, however, that it could be fatal to their cause.
The LEAVERS need to play this carefully, and not come over too Heinrich Himmlerish, but events, the migration crisis above all else, are very much on their side.
It may not matter than LEAVE is led by a cabal of painted buffoons, if REMAIN are truly so clueless on this utterly dominant subject.
Later.
Somebody earlier referred to the camps in Kent where people are desperate to reach the Continent, a bit like all those Americans who drowned trying to reach Cuba on rafts.
It's also perfectly fair for someone who is undecided to ask what happens if we leave. In fact, it's sensible, particularly if they also ask what happens if we stay.0 -
Isn't there still a valid Papal Bull saying we Brits should invade Ireland to civilise the natives?AlastairMeeks said:
For that matter, should we be seeking to regain sovereignty over the whole of Ireland? Our territorial claim to it is of more recent provenance than Argentina's over the Falklands, and it's closer. It would also meet Jeremy Corbyn's preferred objective of a united Ireland, though not by the route he's envisaged to date.logical_song said:
In which case, what about Gibraltar and the Channel Islands?MarkHopkins said:
Corbyn: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st Century we could get into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it."Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq
The Islands that are 300 miles away?
He can't even get his facts straight.0 -
I'd imagine Corbo wanted to keep Gibraltar British until Franco left office and now he would give it back.logical_song said:
No.MarkHopkins said:
Irrelevant to the point.logical_song said:
In which case, what about Gibraltar and the Channel Islands?MarkHopkins said:
Corbyn: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st Century we could get into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it."Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq
The Islands that are 300 miles away?
He can't even get his facts straight.
Gibraltar is just off Spain and the Channel Islands are just off France. If you want to negotiate with Argentina about Falklands sovereignty then why not with Spain about Gibraltar?
Corbyn should make his views on that clear.
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Gibraltar and the Channel Islands also overwhelmingly want to remain British.logical_song said:
In which case, what about Gibraltar and the Channel Islands?MarkHopkins said:
Corbyn: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st Century we could get into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it."Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq
The Islands that are 300 miles away?
He can't even get his facts straight.0 -
Dave's just said 'You’ll never hear me say Britain couldn’t succeed outside the European Union'0
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I think you are right about all of that.SeanT said:
But it could last long enough to win the voteWanderer said:
Absolutely. And I think Cameron will generate a Remain upswing when he unveils his deal. I think that will be the time to back Leave though as the effect won't last (which is just a hunch tbh).SeanT said:
Yes. Imagine anyone else (with the possible exception of BoJo) leading the REMAIN campaign. Osborne, Miliband, May, Blair, Mandelson, Brown, Major, Corbyn, Salmond, Clegg...Plato_Says said:I agree, and he's a great hand. IIRC his personal credibility is worth c5pts with undecideds.
TGOHF said:
The only good card "Remain" have left is Cameron.Plato_Says said:I think the Cologne Effect and Merkel more generally has made it perfectly acceptable to say Not Here Thanks.
Leave are finally getting their crap together. Remain are by contrast puffing US evil banksters funding them. Awful PR.CDM said:FPT:
Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.
I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?
REMAIN would lose under all these.
All those europhile lefties who slag off Cameron should thank their luckies he is at the helm.
Presumably Cam's plan is to bring home the EU bacon and a shiny new deal (ludicrously overblown, of course) then have a very quick campaign on the back of it, before LEAVE get the chance to thoroughly deconstruct.
However this sensible plan (from a europhile perspective) is in danger of being utterly blown away by the migration THING.
It will be quite a tour de force if he pulls it off.0 -
logical_song said:
No.MarkHopkins said:
Irrelevant to the point.logical_song said:
In which case, what about Gibraltar and the Channel Islands?MarkHopkins said:
Corbyn: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st Century we could get into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it."Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq
The Islands that are 300 miles away?
He can't even get his facts straight.
Gibraltar is just off Spain and the Channel Islands are just off France. If you want to negotiate with Argentina about Falklands sovereignty then why not with Spain about Gibraltar?
Corbyn should make his views on that clear.
Ahh yes, I see your point. Yes Corbyn should.
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Does Corbyn think that Kalingrad should be returned to Lithuania?logical_song said:
No.MarkHopkins said:
Irrelevant to the point.logical_song said:
In which case, what about Gibraltar and the Channel Islands?MarkHopkins said:
Corbyn: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st Century we could get into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it."Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq
The Islands that are 300 miles away?
He can't even get his facts straight.
Gibraltar is just off Spain and the Channel Islands are just off France. If you want to negotiate with Argentina about Falklands sovereignty then why not with Spain about Gibraltar?
Corbyn should make his views on that clear.0 -
Bella Caledonia is a RISE front, masquerading as a non-partisan Independence grouping. They've been exposed and face the consequence.CarlottaVance said:This is what happens if you dare suggest considering NOT giving BOTH your votes to the SNP:
@bellacaledonia Drowning under the sea of negativity against Bella. Going to take some time off social media to consider best options.
There is but one true faith......
The split vote strategy can only be effective if the List vote goes to the greens, the idiots at Bella are trying to muddy the water in the highly implausible hope of sneaking a RISE nutter into Holyrood.
The hard left has had their chance, they got representatives in the first two parliaments. They made an utter mess of it. They even had one of their MSPs go "on the sick" for 18 months.0 -
Now, that's irrelevant! Nobody would say otherwise.Cookie said:
Gibraltar and the Channel Islands also overwhelmingly want to remain British.logical_song said:
In which case, what about Gibraltar and the Channel Islands?MarkHopkins said:
Corbyn: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st Century we could get into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it."Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq
The Islands that are 300 miles away?
He can't even get his facts straight.0 -
Yes, it always helps to read the posting.MarkHopkins said:logical_song said:
No.MarkHopkins said:
Irrelevant to the point.logical_song said:
In which case, what about Gibraltar and the Channel Islands?MarkHopkins said:
Corbyn: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st Century we could get into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it."Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq
The Islands that are 300 miles away?
He can't even get his facts straight.
Gibraltar is just off Spain and the Channel Islands are just off France. If you want to negotiate with Argentina about Falklands sovereignty then why not with Spain about Gibraltar?
Corbyn should make his views on that clear.
Ahh yes, I see your point. Yes Corbyn should.0 -
Kurdistan?watford30 said:
Does Corbyn think that Kalingrad should be returned to Lithuania?logical_song said:
No.MarkHopkins said:
Irrelevant to the point.logical_song said:
In which case, what about Gibraltar and the Channel Islands?MarkHopkins said:
Corbyn: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st Century we could get into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it."Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq
The Islands that are 300 miles away?
He can't even get his facts straight.
Gibraltar is just off Spain and the Channel Islands are just off France. If you want to negotiate with Argentina about Falklands sovereignty then why not with Spain about Gibraltar?
Corbyn should make his views on that clear.0 -
James McHale
The working class are the salt of the earth when voting Labour. But start voting UKIP and suddenly you're a homophobic, xenophobic racist!0 -
This would be a great question for a journalist to ask him.watford30 said:
Does Corbyn think that Kalingrad should be returned to Lithuania?logical_song said:
No.MarkHopkins said:
Irrelevant to the point.logical_song said:
In which case, what about Gibraltar and the Channel Islands?MarkHopkins said:
Corbyn: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st Century we could get into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it."Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq
The Islands that are 300 miles away?
He can't even get his facts straight.
Gibraltar is just off Spain and the Channel Islands are just off France. If you want to negotiate with Argentina about Falklands sovereignty then why not with Spain about Gibraltar?
Corbyn should make his views on that clear.0 -
So you just ignore your opponents, rather than challenge them?bigjohnowls said:Tonights This Week Liz 4% Kendall is on
Another early night for me.
Mind you not sure if i will be able to sleep after the excitment of Railway talk I am attending
Dawn of Nationalisation
Images from the Percy Moseley. Collection from the years 1947, 1948 and 1949.
Should be brilliant
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CDM - I agree. In my view, this is the #1 problem for LEAVE - for many, voting LEAVE doesn't fit with the way they view themselves. LEAVE need to find a way of making people feel good about voting out - something the SNP have managed very well over the last 20 years. I fear there may not be enough time to effect this change.TGOHF said:
The only good card "Remain" have left is Cameron.Plato_Says said:I think the Cologne Effect and Merkel more generally has made it perfectly acceptable to say Not Here Thanks.
Leave are finally getting their crap together. Remain are by contrast puffing US evil banksters funding them. Awful PR.CDM said:FPT:
Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.
I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?0 -
I think you're right, especially when you consider that Tories are likely to make up the largest section of Leavers and they are used to being shy!CDM said:FPT:
Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.
I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?
To have any chance however, Leavers need a forceful, eloquent and convincing leader .... Dan Hannan looks very much the part,but would he be acceptable to non-Tories in the same way as Boris would have been, before seemingly chickening out of the fray?0 -
Yes but as Richard says - leaving involves a bit of a "hassle"TheScreamingEagles said:Dave's just said 'You’ll never hear me say Britain couldn’t succeed outside the European Union'
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Ah - just seen your reply to Mark Hopkins below. I think I misread the point you were making in the way that he did.logical_song said:
Now, that's irrelevant! Nobody would say otherwise.Cookie said:
Gibraltar and the Channel Islands also overwhelmingly want to remain British.logical_song said:
In which case, what about Gibraltar and the Channel Islands?MarkHopkins said:
Corbyn: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st Century we could get into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it."Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq
The Islands that are 300 miles away?
He can't even get his facts straight.0 -
The referendum might well be decided in the next few weeks, when the electoral commission decides who the official Leave campaign is.Cookie said:
CDM - I agree. In my view, this is the #1 problem for LEAVE - for many, voting LEAVE doesn't fit with the way they view themselves. LEAVE need to find a way of making people feel good about voting out - something the SNP have managed very well over the last 20 years. I fear there may not be enough time to effect this change.TGOHF said:
The only good card "Remain" have left is Cameron.Plato_Says said:I think the Cologne Effect and Merkel more generally has made it perfectly acceptable to say Not Here Thanks.
Leave are finally getting their crap together. Remain are by contrast puffing US evil banksters funding them. Awful PR.CDM said:FPT:
Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.
I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?
If it is Leave.EU then Leave is going to disappear up its own arse.0 -
Katie Sky
On principle of ever closer union, specifically Schengen, PM: we never went for approach of taking down our borders &in my op' we never will0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Miss Plato, the UKIP wet dream scenario is now actually a plausible possibility.
UK votes to Remain.
EU alters rules so we get a quota of X migrants or suffer financial and other penalties.
Cameron gets replaced by someone rubbish enough to beat Corbyn but not compelling enough to keep voters from going for a populist purple vote.0 -
It's a huge age differential isn't it?Cookie said:
Away from here, politics rarely comes up in conversations I have. But when it does, it seems pretty much everyone I know (largely from the northern suburban middle classes in their 30s and 40s) takes the standard Guardian view of the world. So I'm expecting to be pretty much alone as an outer.CDM said:
I'm not so sure. I work in finance (but not for a bank), and when the topic comes up and I mention that I'm for leave there is genuine surprise. I also met somebody else in the same sector who feels the same way, but wouldn't say so in a discussion forum because she thought she would be alone.Plato_Says said:I think the Cologne Effect and Merkel more generally has made it perfectly acceptable to say Not Here Thanks.
Leave are finally getting their crap together. Remain are by contrast puffing US evil banksters funding them. Awful PR.CDM said:FPT:
Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.
I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?
It might be just a City thing; would be good to hear Charles' view.
I accept that this view is not representative, There must, somewhere, be hidden reserves of outers somewhere (or LEAVE wouldn't be at 40% and above in the polls) just as there are hidden reserves of other Conservative voters and UKIP voters somewhere. But either they don't move in my circles, or they do and they keep quiet.
There's a clear divide between pensioners clearly favouring OUT and 18-34s solidly in. You clearly move in hip and trendy circles.
IN will win if they can persuade the baby-boomers their children's security is protected staying in and convince 20 somethings that they need to vote this time.
OUT will win if they persuade enough younger voters that the global world they've grown up in isn't under threat from leaving, and it'll make their jobs more secure. To do this, they are going to have to commit to what OUT looks like, and deal with the EEA question once and for all.0 -
Wasn't aware there was a challenge opportunity on This WeekRobD said:
So you just ignore your opponents, rather than challenge them?bigjohnowls said:Tonights This Week Liz 4% Kendall is on
Another early night for me.
Mind you not sure if i will be able to sleep after the excitment of Railway talk I am attending
Dawn of Nationalisation
Images from the Percy Moseley. Collection from the years 1947, 1948 and 1949.
Should be brilliant
Perhaps I could ask her if she would have Nationalised the Railways in the 40s0 -
Ouch
Tom Harris
.@TotalPolitics Only a political neophyte would claim that Tony Blair's "predicament" in the PLP was remotely similar to Corbyn's.0 -
He's eloquent, but lefties like him because he criticised the NHS, and Dave slapped him down for that.SeanT said:
Hannan is hated by lefties, I have no idea why: except perhaps that they fear him, as a very eloquent, reasonable, persuasive eurosceptic, the thinking man's Nigel Farage, as it werepeter_from_putney said:
I think you're right, especially when you consider that Tories are likely to make up the largest section of Leavers and they are used to being shy!CDM said:FPT:
Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.
I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?
To have any chance however, Leavers need a forceful, eloquent and convincing leader .... Dan Hannan looks very much the part,but would he be acceptable to non-Tories in the same way as Boris would have been, before seemingly chickening out of the fray?
He should lead the campaign. He's a great speaker and clearly a decent chap, most voters won't give a toss that Guardianistas abhor him.
Remember this:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=94lW6Y4tBXs0 -
BTW I notice on the previous thread one or two were shedding crocodile tears over the spy that Putin had killed, he was a Russian spy ffs, not a Salvation Army volunteer.
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Press Gazette
National press ABCs, December 2015: Cut price Daily Star grows sales and hurts Daily Mirror https://t.co/1wUAPSVbg20 -
'Under our Constitution, a naturalized citizen stands on an equal footing with the native citizen in all respects, save that of eligibility to the Presidency.'Patrick said:On Topic: Everyone knows the difference between a Caesarean section birth and a natural birth. I'm sure Cruz was a natural born American. ;-)
Luria v. United States, 231 US 9, 24 (1913)
'We start from the premise that the rights of citizenship of the native born and of the naturalized person are of the same dignity and are coextensive. The only difference drawn by the Constitution is that only the "natural born" citizen is eligible to be President. Art. II,§ 1.' Schneider v. Rusk, 377 US 163, 165 (1964)
Miller v. Albright 523 U.S. 420 (1998)
JUSTICE STEVENS announced the judgment of the Court and delivered an opinion, in which THE CHIEF JUSTICE joins.
'There are "two sources of citizenship, and two only: birth and naturalization." United States v. Wong Kim Ark, 169 U. S. 649, 702 (1898). Within the former category, the Fourteenth Amendment of the Constitution guarantees that every person "born in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, becomes at once a citizen of the United States, and needs no naturalization." 169 U. S., at 702. Persons not born in the United States acquire citizenship by birth only as provided by Acts of Congress. Id., at 703.'
JUSTICE SCALIA, with whom JUSTICE THOMAS joins, concurring in the judgment.
'The Constitution "contemplates two sources of citizenship, and two only: birth and naturalization." United States v. Wong Kim Ark, 169 U. S. 649, 702 (1898). Under the Fourteenth Amendment, "[e]very person born in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, becomes at once a citizen of the United States, and needs no naturalization." Ibid. Petitioner, having been born outside the territory of the United States, is an alien as far as the Constitution is concerned, and "can only become a citizen by being naturalized, either by treaty, as in the case of the annexation of foreign territory; or by authority of Congress." Id., at 702-703; see also Rogers v. Bellei, 401 U. S. 815, 827 (1971). Here it is the "authority of Congress" that is appealed to its power under Art. I, § 8, cl. 4, to "establish an uniform Rule of Naturalization." If there is no congressional enactment granting petitioner citizenship, she remains an alien.'
[my emphases]0 -
Yes! It seemed to be the same 6 scaremongering, Nick Clegg regurgitations 30 or 40 times over 4 pagesdavid_herdson said:Ref EURef: we've just received a 4-page 'newspaper' from Britain in Europe through the post. Has anyone else had one of these?
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To be fair, it is ridiculous that we could get into some conflict there. Argentina's navy manages to sink by itself these days. It's in nothing like a fit state for combat.MarkHopkins said:
Corbyn: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st Century we could get into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it."Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq
The Islands that are 300 miles away?
He can't even get his facts straight.0 -
True, Sean. ''Liberal' is the key thing there. I think the point that I was making was that in my rather dull, middle-class suburb - this is Sale; this is Manchester half-way out, where people set up home when they have families because it's not run by Manchester City Council* and because the schools are good and there are parks and low crime rates and general owner-occupation and Council Tax is low - that people are almost as Guardianista as they are in Chorlton.SeanT said:
Hardly surprising that 30-40-something liberal middle classes are REMAIN. in fact that is the core REMAIN vote.Cookie said:
Away from here, politics rarely comes up in conversations I have. But when it does, it seems pretty much everyone I know (largely from the northern suburban middle classes in their 30s and 40s) takes the standard Guardian view of the world. So I'm expecting to be pretty much alone as an outer.CDM said:
I'm not so sure. I work in finance (but not for a bank), and when the topic comes up and I mention that I'm for leave there is genuine surprise. I also met somebody else in the same sector who feels the same way, but wouldn't say so in a discussion forum because she thought she would be alone.Plato_Says said:I think the Cologne Effect and Merkel more generally has made it perfectly acceptable to say Not Here Thanks.
Leave are finally getting their crap together. Remain are by contrast puffing US evil banksters funding them. Awful PR.CDM said:FPT:
Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.
I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?
It might be just a City thing; would be good to hear Charles' view.
I accept that this view is not representative, There must, somewhere, be hidden reserves of outers somewhere (or LEAVE wouldn't be at 40% and above in the polls) just as there are hidden reserves of other Conservative voters and UKIP voters somewhere. But either they don't move in my circles, or they do and they keep quiet.
The old, the Tory, the WWC, the metro-libertarian are the core LEAVERS.
I suppose I'm a metro-libertarian. But I don't know any others. My next door but one neighbour is a Tory voter, but he's very much of the Ken Clarke mold.0 -
My birth was scheduled.weejonnie said:
From your mother's womb untimely ripped/SandyRentool said:Must be natural born. That rules me out - I was delivered by C-section.
The surgeon gave my father the choice of before and after the end of the tax year...0 -
I agree; one of the very few Leavers who would worry the Remain camp. Not a premier league choice, but given the absence of star quality on the Leave side, they could do a lot worse.SeanT said:
Hannan is hated by lefties, I have no idea why: except perhaps that they fear him, as a very eloquent, reasonable, persuasive eurosceptic, the thinking man's Nigel Farage, as it werepeter_from_putney said:
I think you're right, especially when you consider that Tories are likely to make up the largest section of Leavers and they are used to being shy!CDM said:FPT:
Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.
I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?
To have any chance however, Leavers need a forceful, eloquent and convincing leader .... Dan Hannan looks very much the part,but would he be acceptable to non-Tories in the same way as Boris would have been, before seemingly chickening out of the fray?
He should lead the campaign. He's a great speaker and clearly a decent chap, most voters won't give a toss that Guardianistas abhor him.
Remember this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94lW6Y4tBXs0 -
Be more worried if they took that into account for the conception ...Charles said:
My birth was scheduled.weejonnie said:
From your mother's womb untimely ripped/SandyRentool said:Must be natural born. That rules me out - I was delivered by C-section.
The surgeon gave my father the choice of before and after the end of the tax year...0 -
Mr. Isam, I got one of those as well. It's not impressive to me, but unless the alternative is offered it may well sway votes.0
-
I'm still waiting for one of the big hitting Remainers to take on Nigel in a televised debate, after he demolished Clegg I can't imagine they'll be queuing up.tpfkar said:
I agree; one of the very few Leavers who would worry the Remain camp. Not a premier league choice, but given the absence of star quality on the Leave side, they could do a lot worse.SeanT said:
Hannan is hated by lefties, I have no idea why: except perhaps that they fear him, as a very eloquent, reasonable, persuasive eurosceptic, the thinking man's Nigel Farage, as it werepeter_from_putney said:
I think you're right, especially when you consider that Tories are likely to make up the largest section of Leavers and they are used to being shy!CDM said:FPT:
Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.
I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?
To have any chance however, Leavers need a forceful, eloquent and convincing leader .... Dan Hannan looks very much the part,but would he be acceptable to non-Tories in the same way as Boris would have been, before seemingly chickening out of the fray?
He should lead the campaign. He's a great speaker and clearly a decent chap, most voters won't give a toss that Guardianistas abhor him.
Remember this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94lW6Y4tBXs
0 -
A dog owner who told a woman her Jack Russell was attacking her because it "doesn't like Muslims" has been convicted of racially aggravated harassment.
Fiona Connolly's dog had run up to Candice Legister and chew at her dress as she walked through Little Wormwood Scrubs Park in Chelsea, southwest London.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/12112681/Dog-owner-claimed-animal-attacked-woman-as-it-doesnt-like-Muslims.html0 -
What exactly is a metro-libertarian?SeanT said:
Hardly surprising that 30-40-something liberal middle classes are REMAIN. in fact that is the core REMAIN vote.Cookie said:
Away from here, politics rarely comes up in conversations I have. But when it does, it seems pretty much everyone I know (largely from the northern suburban middle classes in their 30s and 40s) takes the standard Guardian view of the world. So I'm expecting to be pretty much alone as an outer.CDM said:
I'm not so sure. I work in finance (but not for a bank), and when the topic comes up and I mention that I'm for leave there is genuine surprise. I also met somebody else in the same sector who feels the same way, but wouldn't say so in a discussion forum because she thought she would be alone.Plato_Says said:I think the Cologne Effect and Merkel more generally has made it perfectly acceptable to say Not Here Thanks.
Leave are finally getting their crap together. Remain are by contrast puffing US evil banksters funding them. Awful PR.CDM said:FPT:
Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.
I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?
It might be just a City thing; would be good to hear Charles' view.
I accept that this view is not representative, There must, somewhere, be hidden reserves of outers somewhere (or LEAVE wouldn't be at 40% and above in the polls) just as there are hidden reserves of other Conservative voters and UKIP voters somewhere. But either they don't move in my circles, or they do and they keep quiet.
The old, the Tory, the WWC, the metro-libertarian are the core LEAVERS.0 -
'To be fair, it is ridiculous that we could get into some conflict there. Argentina's navy manages to sink by itself these days. It's in nothing like a fit state for combat.
Britain also has HMS Dauntless, which is a serious piece of kit, apparently.0 -
You're not too bothered by foreign powers irradiating parts of London then? Or executing people here.blackburn63 said:BTW I notice on the previous thread one or two were shedding crocodile tears over the spy that Putin had killed, he was a Russian spy ffs, not a Salvation Army volunteer.
0 -
@David_Cameron · 6m6 minutes ago
I made clear in my speech at #WEF - an EU renegotiation deal needs to be right for the UK. I'm in no hurry to do a deal in February.
Timetable slipping, I think.
Especially coupled with this:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/414be6be-c035-11e5-9fdb-87b8d15baec2.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product
"earlier, speaking to journalists, Mr Valls cast doubt on the idea that the British government would secure agreement on a package of reforms to keep Britain in the EU, at the next EU summit in February — suggesting that negotiations would “need more time”."0 -
I'm not sure about that. I agree with those who have been saying that immigration is the Leave side's most potent political argument (leaving aside the point that it may be a bogus argument, and certainly is if we end up in an EEA-style deal). Angela Merkel is doing a much better job of pushing UK voters towards Brexit than anyone in either Leave campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:The referendum might well be decided in the next few weeks, when the electoral commission decides who the official Leave campaign is.
If it is Leave.EU then Leave is going to disappear up its own arse.
Given that, it's a bit hard to say which of the two campaign groups would be the more effective. Leave.EU is more divisive, less professional, and looks a bit dodgy, but it has the most potent argument at the centre of its offering. VoteLeave are more gentlemanly, and come over as more sane, but are hampered from making that potent argument because they presumably don't actually believe it or think it will taint the Leave side.0 -
An immigration led strategy will be great for achieving 35% of the vote.isam said:
How can people who devote a lot of time to arguing the merits of mass immigration, and downplaying the problems it brings, reconcile that with having to look at any cost as if they are a shrewdie who only ever wins arguments, when the argument most likely to appeal to voters (as backed by the polls) is the fear of immigration and violence??taffys said:They think LEAVE should ignore immigration and the refugee crisis and focus on micro analysing EU treaties etc
You can see whole threads here with posters poring over treaties to see what we can and can't do.
Meanwhile cornerstone principles turn to ash when the EU is threatened, as we now see with the Dublin treaty.
We are being lined up as a dumping ground for German folly. A landfill for their policy catastrophe.
A tricky one...
But it could repel a lot of the marginal voters.
It's an important theme, and needs to be explored, but shouldn't set the tone for the whole discussion.0 -
The alternatives are newspaper headlines every day. LEAVE have had a result as the media are doing their work for them by just reporting the newsMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Isam, I got one of those as well. It's not impressive to me, but unless the alternative is offered it may well sway votes.
"A 26-year-old Algerian asylum seeker has become the first suspect to be arrested over alleged sexual offences in Cologne on New Year's Eve."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35348949
"A Cologne imam has said the victims of the New Years Eve mob sex attacks had themselves to blame because they wore perfume. Sami Abu-Yusuf added that he was not surprised the girls were sexually assaulted, groped and raped, because of the way they dressed"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3408033/Muslim-cleric-says-Cologne-sex-attacks-victims-fault-wore-PERFUME.html
"Syrian migrants in Calais win green light to come to Britain
British court says the four men should be allowed to come here immediately in case with far-reaching implications"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/12111377/Syrian-migrants-in-Calais-win-green-light-to-come-to-Britain.html
0 -
Hannan is a persuasive spokesperson for Leave. He's not well known enough to be their lead though.0
-
Logical Song The last time I was there it was noticeable that Gibraltar is definitely attached to the Country of Spain..They share a border..0
-
Exactly.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm not sure about that. I agree with those who have been arguing that immigration is the Leave side's most potent political argument (leaving aside the point that it may be a bogus argument, and certainly is if we end up in an EEA-style deal). Angela Merkel is doing a much better job of pushing UK voters towards Brexit than anyone in either Leave campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:The referendum might well be decided in the next few weeks, when the electoral commission decides who the official Leave campaign is.
If it is Leave.EU then Leave is going to disappear up its own arse.
Given that, it's a bit hard to say which of the two campaign groups would be the more effective. Leave.EU is more divisive, less professional, and looks a bit dodgy, but it has the most potent argument at the centre of its offering. VoteLeave are more gentlemanly, and come over as more sane, but are hampered from making that potent argument because they presumably don't actually believe it or think it will taint the Leave side.
and for all the criticism of UKIPs campaign methods and their number of MPs, it cannot be argued that 5 years ago, them winning the Euros and getting 13% of the vote at a GE would have been laughed at on here.. in fact it was and I did quite well out of it in betting terms (only to give it all back and more by backing seats).
They increased their vote share (and absolute vote?) by more than any other party, so I'd be careful to write off their campaign too soon just because it didn't suit ones personal taste0 -
Dave's just said 'You’ll never hear me say Britain couldn’t succeed outside the European Union'
But at the same time he supports the propagation of laughable propaganda that suggests just that e.g. the 'pure Goebbels' 3 million jobs claim.0 -
Is less about immigration and more the tactics, strategy and the collegiate approach of the campaign.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm not sure about that. I agree with those who have been arguing that immigration is the Leave side's most potent political argument (leaving aside the point that it may be a bogus argument, and certainly is if we end up in an EEA-style deal). Angela Merkel is doing a much better job of pushing UK voters towards Brexit than anyone in either Leave campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:The referendum might well be decided in the next few weeks, when the electoral commission decides who the official Leave campaign is.
If it is Leave.EU then Leave is going to disappear up its own arse.
Given that, it's a bit hard to say which of the two campaign groups would be the more effective. Leave.EU is more divisive, less professional, and looks a bit dodgy, but it has the most potent argument at the centre of its offering. VoteLeave are more gentlemanly, and come over as more sane, but are hampered from making that potent argument because they presumably don't actually believe it or think it will taint the Leave side.
If it Leave.EU then it is going to use the UKIP model and people to run the campaign (sans Carswell) Vote Leave is much broader based.0 -
He's a libertarian. He goes against every nanny state you-can't-do-that instinct they have. And, of course, he makes his case well.SeanT said:
Hannan is hated by lefties, I have no idea why: except perhaps that they fear him, as a very eloquent, reasonable, persuasive eurosceptic, the thinking man's Nigel Farage, as it werepeter_from_putney said:
I think you're right, especially when you consider that Tories are likely to make up the largest section of Leavers and they are used to being shy!CDM said:FPT:
Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.
I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?
To have any chance however, Leavers need a forceful, eloquent and convincing leader .... Dan Hannan looks very much the part,but would he be acceptable to non-Tories in the same way as Boris would have been, before seemingly chickening out of the fray?
He should lead the campaign. He's a great speaker and clearly a decent chap, most voters won't give a toss that Guardianistas abhor him.
Remember this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94lW6Y4tBXs0 -
Its the only chance LEAVE have of winningCharles said:
An immigration led strategy will be great for achieving 35% of the vote.isam said:
How can people who devote a lot of time to arguing the merits of mass immigration, and downplaying the problems it brings, reconcile that with having to look at any cost as if they are a shrewdie who only ever wins arguments, when the argument most likely to appeal to voters (as backed by the polls) is the fear of immigration and violence??taffys said:They think LEAVE should ignore immigration and the refugee crisis and focus on micro analysing EU treaties etc
You can see whole threads here with posters poring over treaties to see what we can and can't do.
Meanwhile cornerstone principles turn to ash when the EU is threatened, as we now see with the Dublin treaty.
We are being lined up as a dumping ground for German folly. A landfill for their policy catastrophe.
A tricky one...
But it could repel a lot of the marginal voters.
It's an important theme, and needs to be explored, but shouldn't set the tone for the whole discussion.0 -
I'm not excusing the dog owner, but the whole thing seems like a storm in a teacup to me. Is it really a worthwhile use of police and court time, dealing with petty insults from thick drunkards?TheScreamingEagles said:A dog owner who told a woman her Jack Russell was attacking her because it "doesn't like Muslims" has been convicted of racially aggravated harassment.
Fiona Connolly's dog had run up to Candice Legister and chew at her dress as she walked through Little Wormwood Scrubs Park in Chelsea, southwest London.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/12112681/Dog-owner-claimed-animal-attacked-woman-as-it-doesnt-like-Muslims.html
0 -
It's just like the laughable 'one million Syrians in Germany are coming to the UK' claimrunnymede said:Dave's just said 'You’ll never hear me say Britain couldn’t succeed outside the European Union'
But at the same time he supports the propagation of laughable propaganda that suggests just that e.g. the 'pure Goebbels' 3 million jobs claim.0 -
It would be a mistake to let it slip past June. The vote needs to be this year; September or October work as well as (if not better than) June. Next year, on the other hand, creates a load more hostages to fortune as well as giving Leave more time to organise.AlastairMeeks said:@David_Cameron · 6m6 minutes ago
I made clear in my speech at #WEF - an EU renegotiation deal needs to be right for the UK. I'm in no hurry to do a deal in February.
Timetable slipping, I think.
Especially coupled with this:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/414be6be-c035-11e5-9fdb-87b8d15baec2.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product
"earlier, speaking to journalists, Mr Valls cast doubt on the idea that the British government would secure agreement on a package of reforms to keep Britain in the EU, at the next EU summit in February — suggesting that negotiations would “need more time”."0 -
When a politician says they are 'not in a hurry', it usually means that they are in a hurry.0
-
Yes, that's surely right. Arron Banks in particular is a big negative.TheScreamingEagles said:Is less about immigration and more the tactics, strategy and the collegiate approach of the campaign.
If it Leave.EU then it is going to use the UKIP model and people to run the campaign (sans Carswell) Vote Leave is much broader based.0 -
I think September is much more likely.david_herdson said:It would be a mistake to let it slip past June. The vote needs to be this year; September or October work as well as (if not better than) June. Next year, on the other hand, creates a load more hostages to fortune as well as giving Leave more time to organise.
0 -
No, it will guarantee a loss.isam said:
Its the only chance LEAVE have of winningCharles said:
An immigration led strategy will be great for achieving 35% of the vote.isam said:
How can people who devote a lot of time to arguing the merits of mass immigration, and downplaying the problems it brings, reconcile that with having to look at any cost as if they are a shrewdie who only ever wins arguments, when the argument most likely to appeal to voters (as backed by the polls) is the fear of immigration and violence??taffys said:They think LEAVE should ignore immigration and the refugee crisis and focus on micro analysing EU treaties etc
You can see whole threads here with posters poring over treaties to see what we can and can't do.
Meanwhile cornerstone principles turn to ash when the EU is threatened, as we now see with the Dublin treaty.
We are being lined up as a dumping ground for German folly. A landfill for their policy catastrophe.
A tricky one...
But it could repel a lot of the marginal voters.
It's an important theme, and needs to be explored, but shouldn't set the tone for the whole discussion.
I actually think it is a good idea that there are two Leave campaigns - I wish they would stop taking potshots at each other and co-operate.
Leave.EU should focus on the 'UKIP voter' emphasis immigration, play under the radar screen.
Vote Leave should be the official face of the campaign, talk to business, work with the media and try to make voting leave acceptable0 -
Hmm. Does sound that way. That's bad for Remain.AlastairMeeks said:@David_Cameron · 6m6 minutes ago
I made clear in my speech at #WEF - an EU renegotiation deal needs to be right for the UK. I'm in no hurry to do a deal in February.
Timetable slipping, I think.
Especially coupled with this:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/414be6be-c035-11e5-9fdb-87b8d15baec2.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product
"earlier, speaking to journalists, Mr Valls cast doubt on the idea that the British government would secure agreement on a package of reforms to keep Britain in the EU, at the next EU summit in February — suggesting that negotiations would “need more time”."
Suggests there is something substantive to talk about, of cours0 -
Yes I agree with you completely on the second point.. It has crossed my mind that the whole "good cop/bad cop" thing between Carswell/VL and Farage/L.EU was a put up... I doubt it but I think it is perfect actuallyCharles said:
No, it will guarantee a loss.isam said:
Its the only chance LEAVE have of winningCharles said:
An immigration led strategy will be great for achieving 35% of the vote.isam said:
How can people who devote a lot of time to arguing the merits of mass immigration, and downplaying the problems it brings, reconcile that with having to look at any cost as if they are a shrewdie who only ever wins arguments, when the argument most likely to appeal to voters (as backed by the polls) is the fear of immigration and violence??taffys said:They think LEAVE should ignore immigration and the refugee crisis and focus on micro analysing EU treaties etc
You can see whole threads here with posters poring over treaties to see what we can and can't do.
Meanwhile cornerstone principles turn to ash when the EU is threatened, as we now see with the Dublin treaty.
We are being lined up as a dumping ground for German folly. A landfill for their policy catastrophe.
A tricky one...
But it could repel a lot of the marginal voters.
It's an important theme, and needs to be explored, but shouldn't set the tone for the whole discussion.
I actually think it is a good idea that there are two Leave campaigns - I wish they would stop taking potshots at each other and co-operate.
Leave.EU should focus on the 'UKIP voter' emphasis immigration, play under the radar screen.
Vote Leave should be the official face of the campaign, talk to business, work with the media and try to make voting leave acceptable0 -
Good plan. Now how can you make it happen?Charles said:
No, it will guarantee a loss.isam said:
Its the only chance LEAVE have of winningCharles said:
An immigration led strategy will be great for achieving 35% of the vote.isam said:
How can people who devote a lot of time to arguing the merits of mass immigration, and downplaying the problems it brings, reconcile that with having to look at any cost as if they are a shrewdie who only ever wins arguments, when the argument most likely to appeal to voters (as backed by the polls) is the fear of immigration and violence??taffys said:They think LEAVE should ignore immigration and the refugee crisis and focus on micro analysing EU treaties etc
You can see whole threads here with posters poring over treaties to see what we can and can't do.
Meanwhile cornerstone principles turn to ash when the EU is threatened, as we now see with the Dublin treaty.
We are being lined up as a dumping ground for German folly. A landfill for their policy catastrophe.
A tricky one...
But it could repel a lot of the marginal voters.
It's an important theme, and needs to be explored, but shouldn't set the tone for the whole discussion.
I actually think it is a good idea that there are two Leave campaigns - I wish they would stop taking potshots at each other and co-operate.
Leave.EU should focus on the 'UKIP voter' emphasis immigration, play under the radar screen.
Vote Leave should be the official face of the campaign, talk to business, work with the media and try to make voting leave acceptable0 -
Yup. You need Matthew Elliott leading your team.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that's surely right. Arron Banks in particular is a big negative.TheScreamingEagles said:Is less about immigration and more the tactics, strategy and the collegiate approach of the campaign.
If it Leave.EU then it is going to use the UKIP model and people to run the campaign (sans Carswell) Vote Leave is much broader based.
He never fails to impress, even if he did lead the No2AV campaign.0 -
To clarify, I should have said "It would be a mistake to let the negotiations slip past June"Richard_Nabavi said:
I think September is much more likely.david_herdson said:It would be a mistake to let it slip past June. The vote needs to be this year; September or October work as well as (if not better than) June. Next year, on the other hand, creates a load more hostages to fortune as well as giving Leave more time to organise.
0 -
Off-topic:
Construction's started on a prototype Hyperloop.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-35361093
A waste of money IMO, but we shall see.0 -
I'd agree with that.Charles said:
No, it will guarantee a loss.isam said:
Its the only chance LEAVE have of winningCharles said:
An immigration led strategy will be great for achieving 35% of the vote.isam said:
How can people who devote a lot of time to arguing the merits of mass immigration, and downplaying the problems it brings, reconcile that with having to look at any cost as if they are a shrewdie who only ever wins arguments, when the argument most likely to appeal to voters (as backed by the polls) is the fear of immigration and violence??taffys said:They think LEAVE should ignore immigration and the refugee crisis and focus on micro analysing EU treaties etc
You can see whole threads here with posters poring over treaties to see what we can and can't do.
Meanwhile cornerstone principles turn to ash when the EU is threatened, as we now see with the Dublin treaty.
We are being lined up as a dumping ground for German folly. A landfill for their policy catastrophe.
A tricky one...
But it could repel a lot of the marginal voters.
It's an important theme, and needs to be explored, but shouldn't set the tone for the whole discussion.
I actually think it is a good idea that there are two Leave campaigns - I wish they would stop taking potshots at each other and co-operate.
Leave.EU should focus on the 'UKIP voter' emphasis immigration, play under the radar screen.
Vote Leave should be the official face of the campaign, talk to business, work with the media and try to make voting leave acceptable0 -
As a matter of interest, in what way do you think September / October work better than June?david_herdson said:
To clarify, I should have said "It would be a mistake to let the negotiations slip past June"Richard_Nabavi said:
I think September is much more likely.david_herdson said:It would be a mistake to let it slip past June. The vote needs to be this year; September or October work as well as (if not better than) June. Next year, on the other hand, creates a load more hostages to fortune as well as giving Leave more time to organise.
0 -
On the other hand OGH, maybe we should make Trump an honorary Brit and invite him to start a new party over here & to run for PM,
notwithstanding that the people who have signed the petition banning him wouldn't vote him.0 -
"earlier, speaking to journalists, Mr Valls cast doubt on the idea that the British government would secure agreement on a package of reforms to keep Britain in the EU, at the next EU summit in February — suggesting that negotiations would “need more time”."
And yet when the EU needs something, such as a change in the Dublin agreement to enable refugees to be waved through and dumped on others, it can be done yesterday.
0 -
Hours after Liverpool bid for him, Alex Teixeira has done his hamstring.
We're cursed.0 -
Fancy a long term wager on thatJosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
Construction's started on a prototype Hyperloop.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-35361093
A waste of money IMO, but we shall see.
? 0 -
The old folk were taught history and are proud of the British story. They don't want to be absorbed into some European state. If the young were taught any British history it was about how evil we were. Anyway they spend too much time looking at their smart phones to think about anything else.tpfkar said:
It's a huge age differential isn't it?Cookie said:
Away from here, politics rarely comes up in conversations I have. But when it does, it seems pretty much everyone I know (largely from the northern suburban middle classes in their 30s and 40s) takes the standard Guardian view of the world. So I'm expecting to be pretty much alone as an outer.CDM said:
I'm not so sure. I work in finance (but not for a bank), and when the topic comes up and I mention that I'm for leave there is genuine surprise. I also met somebody else in the same sector who feels the same way, but wouldn't say so in a discussion forum because she thought she would be alone.Plato_Says said:I think the Cologne Effect and Merkel more generally has made it perfectly acceptable to say Not Here Thanks.
Leave are finally getting their crap together. Remain are by contrast puffing US evil banksters funding them. Awful PR.CDM said:FPT:
Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.
I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?
It might be just a City thing; would be good to hear Charles' view.
I accept that this view is not representative, There must, somewhere, be hidden reserves of outers somewhere (or LEAVE wouldn't be at 40% and above in the polls) just as there are hidden reserves of other Conservative voters and UKIP voters somewhere. But either they don't move in my circles, or they do and they keep quiet.
There's a clear divide between pensioners clearly favouring OUT and 18-34s solidly in. You clearly move in hip and trendy circles.
IN will win if they can persuade the baby-boomers their children's security is protected staying in and convince 20 somethings that they need to vote this time.
OUT will win if they persuade enough younger voters that the global world they've grown up in isn't under threat from leaving, and it'll make their jobs more secure. To do this, they are going to have to commit to what OUT looks like, and deal with the EEA question once and for all.
0 -
It is already isn't it?MarkHopkins said:
Good plan. Now how can you make it happen?Charles said:
No, it will guarantee a loss.isam said:
Its the only chance LEAVE have of winningCharles said:
An immigration led strategy will be great for achieving 35% of the vote.isam said:
How can people who devote a lot of time to arguing the merits of mass immigration, and downplaying the problems it brings, reconcile that with having to look at any cost as if they are a shrewdie who only ever wins arguments, when the argument most likely to appeal to voters (as backed by the polls) is the fear of immigration and violence??taffys said:They think LEAVE should ignore immigration and the refugee crisis and focus on micro analysing EU treaties etc
You can see whole threads here with posters poring over treaties to see what we can and can't do.
Meanwhile cornerstone principles turn to ash when the EU is threatened, as we now see with the Dublin treaty.
We are being lined up as a dumping ground for German folly. A landfill for their policy catastrophe.
A tricky one...
But it could repel a lot of the marginal voters.
It's an important theme, and needs to be explored, but shouldn't set the tone for the whole discussion.
I actually think it is a good idea that there are two Leave campaigns - I wish they would stop taking potshots at each other and co-operate.
Leave.EU should focus on the 'UKIP voter' emphasis immigration, play under the radar screen.
Vote Leave should be the official face of the campaign, talk to business, work with the media and try to make voting leave acceptable0 -
More focus for the campaign. A June vote would come off the back of a lot of elections in May, which will be a distraction for the Remainers (most of whom have a strong interest in them), while UKIP will prioritise the referendum and can probably run one off the back of the other anyway.Wanderer said:
As a matter of interest, in what way do you think September / October work better than June?david_herdson said:
To clarify, I should have said "It would be a mistake to let the negotiations slip past June"Richard_Nabavi said:
I think September is much more likely.david_herdson said:It would be a mistake to let it slip past June. The vote needs to be this year; September or October work as well as (if not better than) June. Next year, on the other hand, creates a load more hostages to fortune as well as giving Leave more time to organise.
There are, of course, risks both ways to delay, particularly re the migrant crisis but then there's a risk in going early as well if it does mean forcing the negotiations and distracting from a migrant solution.0 -
My main concerns are the same as the articles: the cost - the figures in the initial report were rather optimistic IMO, and the throughput of people is woefully low.Pulpstar said:
Fancy a long term wager on thatJosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
Construction's started on a prototype Hyperloop.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-35361093
A waste of money IMO, but we shall see. ?
As for a bet: how about a trip on it if it goes into full passenger service? (Making your way there is not included). 0 -
Didn't someone try something similar over 100 years ago?JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
Construction's started on a prototype Hyperloop.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-35361093
A waste of money IMO, but we shall see.
The results of any accident will be spectacularly bad.0 -
I chat to Matthew Elliott from time to time and do a little to help out - hosted BfB's Winter Party 12 months ago. Don't have the spare cash at the moment to funnel too much money their way though.MarkHopkins said:
Good plan. Now how can you make it happen?Charles said:
No, it will guarantee a loss.isam said:
Its the only chance LEAVE have of winningCharles said:
An immigration led strategy will be great for achieving 35% of the vote.isam said:
How can people who devote a lot of time to arguing the merits of mass immigration, and downplaying the problems it brings, reconcile that with having to look at any cost as if they are a shrewdie who only ever wins arguments, when the argument most likely to appeal to voters (as backed by the polls) is the fear of immigration and violence??taffys said:They think LEAVE should ignore immigration and the refugee crisis and focus on micro analysing EU treaties etc
You can see whole threads here with posters poring over treaties to see what we can and can't do.
Meanwhile cornerstone principles turn to ash when the EU is threatened, as we now see with the Dublin treaty.
We are being lined up as a dumping ground for German folly. A landfill for their policy catastrophe.
A tricky one...
But it could repel a lot of the marginal voters.
It's an important theme, and needs to be explored, but shouldn't set the tone for the whole discussion.
I actually think it is a good idea that there are two Leave campaigns - I wish they would stop taking potshots at each other and co-operate.
Leave.EU should focus on the 'UKIP voter' emphasis immigration, play under the radar screen.
Vote Leave should be the official face of the campaign, talk to business, work with the media and try to make voting leave acceptable0 -
All 5 previously known deaths from Polonium poisoning, including Irene Curie, were accidental. Although there has been speculation that Arafat was poisoned by polonium. Which is interesting as Litvinenko traveled to Israel in October 2006 where it is alleged that he gave information regarding Yukos to Leonid Nevzlin, the former deputy head of Yukos relating to the deaths of former Yukos workers and the imprisonment of Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Litivnenko was also looking into organised crime in Russia and all that implies for that angle.Sean_F said:
Very popular with the Russian secret services. It's a horribly callous way of killing someone. Plainly, they wanted Litvinenko to suffer the agonies of the damned before he died.AlastairMeeks said:How embarrassing for Vladimir Putin.
Poison is a woman's method of murder.
Personally I still believe the smuggling gone wrong hypothesis that Andrew Jay Epstein deduced.
http://www.edwardjayepstein.com/PDFtheories.htm0 -
JosiasJessop said:
My main concerns are the same as the articles: the cost - the figures in the initial report were rather optimistic IMO, and the throughput of people is woefully low.Pulpstar said:
Fancy a long term wager on thatJosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
Construction's started on a prototype Hyperloop.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-35361093
A waste of money IMO, but we shall see. ?
As for a bet: how about a trip on it if it goes into full passenger service? (Making your way there is not included).
What is the advantage over flying?
0 -
On that principle what is Cameron's position on the Crimea (and Donbass and Kharkov and Odessa), or must we bow to the hangups of the loons on that issue?Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq
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There have been lots of funny experiments, including the tracked hovercraft near me, or the French Aerotrain. The most promising, Maglev, has had a massive number of problems.watford30 said:
Didn't someone try something similar over 100 years ago?JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
Construction's started on a prototype Hyperloop.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-35361093
A waste of money IMO, but we shall see.
The results of any accident will be spectacularly bad.
And your point about safety is well put. The failure modes are many, and the energies large.
I remember the Germans saying that their Maglev system was perfectly safe, and couldn't crash ...0 -
Correct, I've far more important things to worry about.watford30 said:
You're not too bothered by foreign powers irradiating parts of London then? Or executing people here.blackburn63 said:BTW I notice on the previous thread one or two were shedding crocodile tears over the spy that Putin had killed, he was a Russian spy ffs, not a Salvation Army volunteer.
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Cost and carbon emissionsMarkHopkins said:JosiasJessop said:
My main concerns are the same as the articles: the cost - the figures in the initial report were rather optimistic IMO, and the throughput of people is woefully low.Pulpstar said:
Fancy a long term wager on thatJosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
Construction's started on a prototype Hyperloop.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-35361093
A waste of money IMO, but we shall see. ?
As for a bet: how about a trip on it if it goes into full passenger service? (Making your way there is not included).
What is the advantage over flying? 0 -
None, really. Depending on your view, it's either designed to kill off the HSR scheme they've got going, or for use on Mars. I cannot see it really working where they've planned.MarkHopkins said:
What is the advantage over flying?JosiasJessop said:
My main concerns are the same as the articles: the cost - the figures in the initial report were rather optimistic IMO, and the throughput of people is woefully low.Pulpstar said:
Fancy a long term wager on thatJosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
Construction's started on a prototype Hyperloop.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-35361093
A waste of money IMO, but we shall see. ?
As for a bet: how about a trip on it if it goes into full passenger service? (Making your way there is not included).
For more info:
http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha.pdf0 -
Meanwhile, Cage compares Litvinenko's murder to the killing of Jihadi John:
https://twitter.com/UK_CAGE/status/6901410315479982080 -
I wonder what price you could get on 'no referendum vote under Cameron'. You could see the calendar drifting endlessly as the situation in Europe disintegrates further in the summer and remain looks less and less likely.
This time next year the back benchers start to seriously lose patience and Cameron will hold a leadership election in the summer, before he has to do what he can not do. Hold a referendum and lose.0 -
The Crimea does not want to remain British. Thats because its never been British and is not a British responsibility.LondonBob said:
On that principle what is Cameron's position on the Crimea (and Donbass and Kharkov and Odessa), or must we bow to the hangups of the loons on that issue?Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq
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England is awesome. The French want to join us.
Toulon’s president, Mourad Boudjellal, has written to Aviva Premiership chiefs about the possibility of his reigning European champions joining English rugby’s flagship domestic competition
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/jan/21/toulon-president-serious-premiership0 -
The unveiling was troubled from the start. Those behind the stunt hadn’t realized the stone’s chief quality -- its mass -- would be a problem. Miliband was supposed to reveal it inside a school hall, but the floor wasn’t strong enough to support it, forcing him to pose for pictures outside, against a gray sky.
Even in the car park, there was a danger of damage to the ground, meaning the slab needed a special weight-distributing frame that appeared in the background of the pictures and gave the scene the air of a construction site.
Miliband also had to circle the school in his bus while the party negotiated with the local Green Party candidate, Jake Bowers, who had got into the school grounds with his horse and cart and refused to move out of the shot. He only did after he was promised a meeting with the Labour leader, according to “Why the Tories Won,” a book about the election by Tim Ross.
...David Cameron, on a campaign visit to Nuneaton, central England, had to be shown photographs to prove the stunt wasn’t a joke. “They can’t actually have done this, can they?” he asked staff.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/the-mystery-of-labour-s-two-ton-u-k-election-debacle-solved0 -
because he was just a beautiful young man...Morris_Dancer said:Meanwhile, Cage compares Litvinenko's murder to the killing of Jihadi John:
https://twitter.com/UK_CAGE/status/6901410315479982080 -
The timeline of 36 months to first passengers seems very ambitious to me. It'll take longer, but around 2040 there'll be a good few running at a profit. Whether we see one in this country any time in the next few decades is another matter, after the 2020s are dominated by HS2 delays, budgets being busted and overruns future Gov'ts may give it a miss even if it is shown to be the "correct" transport solution for us.JosiasJessop said:
None, really. Depending on your view, it's either designed to kill off the HSR scheme they've got going, or for use on Mars. I cannot see it really working where they've planned.MarkHopkins said:
What is the advantage over flying?JosiasJessop said:
My main concerns are the same as the articles: the cost - the figures in the initial report were rather optimistic IMO, and the throughput of people is woefully low.Pulpstar said:
Fancy a long term wager on thatJosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
Construction's started on a prototype Hyperloop.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-35361093
A waste of money IMO, but we shall see. ?
As for a bet: how about a trip on it if it goes into full passenger service? (Making your way there is not included).
For more info:
http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha.pdf0 -
Demon child!SandyRentool said:Must be natural born. That rules me out - I was delivered by C-section.
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Mr. Urquhart, the Ed Stone was the political equivalent of Edward II's manoeuvring ahead of Bannockburn.
Edited for clarity.0 -
You appear a little confused, the Falklands are British territory, the others mentioned are not.LondonBob said:
On that principle what is Cameron's position on the Crimea (and Donbass and Kharkov and Odessa), or must we bow to the hangups of the loons on that issue?Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq
0
