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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The doubts over Cruz’s eligibility will hurt him in the eyes of primary voters irrespective of their validity

An ongoing issue for Cruz has been whether the fact that he was Canadian born makes him ineligible to serve as President. The constitution lays down that the office holder has to be a “natural born” American. There are many legal views on this, read the article linked to above, and it would probably end up in the Supreme Court.

Read the full story here

RobD

First!

RobD

Rod Crosby would be proud

rcs1000

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

LucyJones said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

watford30 said:

Many will bide their time, having learnt enough German to get by, before hot footing it over here as soon as possible. The language is the key.

They can't hot-foot it over here.

They can if they get a German - i.e. EU - passport. "Relaxing" the necessary requirements to be eligible for German passport is one very obvious way for Frau Merkel to help deal with the massive influx of migrants who seem to be currently overwhelming Germany.

That would be extremely difficult to get through the German parliament. Germany has always been one of the hardest countries in Europe to become a citizen of, and the Cologne attacks would hardly make MPs there keen to make it easier for refugees to become citizens.

But if making them citizens is the easiest way to 'export' them? Hand over a one way ticket to Luton with every passport.

I don't buy that.

Take us. Once you get a UK passport, you can go to Germany, etc.

Can you believe a UK government would make it easier for refugees to get UK passports so they could go elsewhere in Europe?

Would that be saleable in parliament if people are concerned about the number of refugees?

SandyRentool

Must be natural born. That rules me out - I was delivered by C-section.

TheScreamingEagles

Canadians are Americans anyway just with better manners and fewer guns.

Except the Québécois, because they are French

Pulpstar

I don't know, and am keeping my powder dry on Iowa for the moment. New Hampshire/South Carolina is "easier" to work out - Trump is winning, and these states are closer to typical than Iowa.
Cruz is ahead/level with Rubio in NH and has a decent chance in Iowa. So although Cruz could blow out I'm staying +ve Cruz; -ve Rubio.
If Trump wins Iowa and New Hampshire he's probably odds on and unstoppable by South Carolina.

SandyRentool

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

LucyJones said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

watford30 said:

Many will bide their time, having learnt enough German to get by, before hot footing it over here as soon as possible. The language is the key.

They can't hot-foot it over here.

They can if they get a German - i.e. EU - passport. "Relaxing" the necessary requirements to be eligible for German passport is one very obvious way for Frau Merkel to help deal with the massive influx of migrants who seem to be currently overwhelming Germany.

That would be extremely difficult to get through the German parliament. Germany has always been one of the hardest countries in Europe to become a citizen of, and the Cologne attacks would hardly make MPs there keen to make it easier for refugees to become citizens.

But if making them citizens is the easiest way to 'export' them? Hand over a one way ticket to Luton with every passport.

I don't buy that.

Take us. Once you get a UK passport, you can go to Germany, etc.

Can you believe a UK government would make it easier for refugees to get UK passports so they could go elsewhere in Europe?

Would that be saleable in parliament if people are concerned about the number of refugees?

I think the UK is a special case. Migrants don't see the UK as a stepping stone to the rest of the EU. No-one is camped out near Dover trying to get to France or Belgium.

Richard_Nabavi

On topic: Luckily there are plenty of lawyers in the US.

rcs1000

Pulpstar said:

I don't know, and am keeping my powder dry on Iowa for the moment. New Hampshire/South Carolina is "easier" to work out - Trump is winning, and these states are closer to typical than Iowa.
Cruz is ahead/level with Rubio in NH and has a decent chance in Iowa. So although Cruz could blow out I'm staying +ve Cruz; -ve Rubio.
If Trump wins Iowa and New Hampshire he's probably odds on and unstoppable by South Carolina.

I don't buy him winning Iowa. I suspect his organisation just isn't good enough, and his supporters aren't natural caucus goers. I think Cruz wins Iowa in with a high 30s share, followed by Trump in the low 20s and Rubio in the high teens.

DecrepitJohnL

Wasn't Barack Obama a natural-born professor of constitutional law at the University of Chicago? He might know.

rcs1000

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

LucyJones said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

watford30 said:

Many will bide their time, having learnt enough German to get by, before hot footing it over here as soon as possible. The language is the key.

They can't hot-foot it over here.

They can if they get a German - i.e. EU - passport. "Relaxing" the necessary requirements to be eligible for German passport is one very obvious way for Frau Merkel to help deal with the massive influx of migrants who seem to be currently overwhelming Germany.

That would be extremely difficult to get through the German parliament. Germany has always been one of the hardest countries in Europe to become a citizen of, and the Cologne attacks would hardly make MPs there keen to make it easier for refugees to become citizens.

But if making them citizens is the easiest way to 'export' them? Hand over a one way ticket to Luton with every passport.

I don't buy that.

Take us. Once you get a UK passport, you can go to Germany, etc.

Can you believe a UK government would make it easier for refugees to get UK passports so they could go elsewhere in Europe?

Would that be saleable in parliament if people are concerned about the number of refugees?

Look at the stats. Look at my link to the Guardian report. You're delusional if you think these people won't want to come to welfare-generous English-speaking Britain, just as soon as they get a permit.

They're already coming. And that was before the 1m "Syrians"

Yes, and in eight years, some of those 1m or 2m Syrians are going to come to the UK. I agree. (Although as it is highly likely they won't be eligible for any benefits for four years, in eight years time, I would have thought they might stay somewhere where they are eligible for social housing and benefits, but that's another story.)

My fundamentl point, though, is that I don't think it would be politically popular in Germany to make it easier for refugees to get German passports. In fact, I suspect - and Austria is leading the way - that it will become harder for refigees to get passports in future.

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

LucyJones said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

watford30 said:

Many will bide their time, having learnt enough German to get by, before hot footing it over here as soon as possible. The language is the key.

They can't hot-foot it over here.

They can if they get a German - i.e. EU - passport. "Relaxing" the necessary requirements to be eligible for German passport is one very obvious way for Frau Merkel to help deal with the massive influx of migrants who seem to be currently overwhelming Germany.

That would be extremely difficult to get through the German parliament. Germany has always been one of the hardest countries in Europe to become a citizen of, and the Cologne attacks would hardly make MPs there keen to make it easier for refugees to become citizens.

But if making them citizens is the easiest way to 'export' them? Hand over a one way ticket to Luton with every passport.

I don't buy that.

Take us. Once you get a UK passport, you can go to Germany, etc.

Can you believe a UK government would make it easier for refugees to get UK passports so they could go elsewhere in Europe?

Would that be saleable in parliament if people are concerned about the number of refugees?

I agree it's unlikely but the phenomenon does need to be recognised. There is a very, very large number of people in the world who see the acquisition of a first-tier passport as an essential rite of passage. They don't particularly care which country they get it from and often plan to live in that country only until they have met the citizenship requirements.

Pulpstar

DecrepitJohnL said:

Wasn't Barack Obama a natural-born professor of constitutional law at the University of Chicago? He might know.

I'm sure a certain chap from Liverpool wil let us know...

Wanderer

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Wanderer said:

Question I have about the EEA plan: would there be a majority in Parliament for it?

If the referendum goes Leave then presumably the Government will repeal the European Communities Act (and whatever else). It might put EEA accession in the same bill or a separate one. I think there'd be a large majority for the ECA repeal as people will be wary of seeming to obstruct the referendum result. What about the EEA part though?

I assume there are Conservative ultras who would see it as an attempt to engineer Remain by the back door. So there might not be a blue majority for it.

Would any opposition party help out? The temptation to let the Conservatives fight it out among themselves would be huge. Also, it wouldn't be hard to justify voting against the EEA accession: not in the referendum, Leave should mean Leave, what about workers' rights, what about Scotland etc etc.

That's not something I'd considered. If there is no Parliamentary majority for leaving the EU, how exactly does one go about it?

The Tories elect a new leader who becomes PM. He/she three-line whips it - you'd prob get a max of 20-30 rebels.

You cover that with the DUP/UUP etc. and through a split Labour Party partly abstaining.

I accept it wouldn't be guaranteed but I don't think the whole House would unite to block a referendum decision.

FPT:

I don't think there would much difficulty in getting a majority for leaving the EU. MPs would be loathe to be seen to be openly flouting the referendum verdict.

My question is more to do with joining the EEA. That's not in the referendum and I would guess that the Government wouldn't have a majority from its own benches alone as some would see the EEA as almost as bad as the EU. They would say that it was a betrayal of the Leave result.

And I don't see why opposition MPs would help the Government out.

weejonnie

SandyRentool said:

Must be natural born. That rules me out - I was delivered by C-section.

From your mother's womb untimely ripped/

LucyJones

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

LucyJones said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

watford30 said:

Many will bide their time, having learnt enough German to get by, before hot footing it over here as soon as possible. The language is the key.

They can't hot-foot it over here.

They can if they get a German - i.e. EU - passport. "Relaxing" the necessary requirements to be eligible for German passport is one very obvious way for Frau Merkel to help deal with the massive influx of migrants who seem to be currently overwhelming Germany.

That would be extremely difficult to get through the German parliament. Germany has always been one of the hardest countries in Europe to become a citizen of, and the Cologne attacks would hardly make MPs there keen to make it easier for refugees to become citizens.

But if making them citizens is the easiest way to 'export' them? Hand over a one way ticket to Luton with every passport.

I don't buy that.

Take us. Once you get a UK passport, you can go to Germany, etc.

Can you believe a UK government would make it easier for refugees to get UK passports so they could go elsewhere in Europe?

Would that be saleable in parliament if people are concerned about the number of refugees?

That would surely depend on how likely it would seem that granting passports would lead to a significant outflow of migrants. If Cameron had done a Merkel and invited >1million "refugees" into the country and we had gone on to experience multiple Cologne style incidents, than maybe the idea of granting passports which would allow some of the refugees to head off elsewhere wouldn't seem so ridiculous. Maybe.

Scott_P

@JournoStephen: Guffaws as @NicolaSturgeon says council capital funding for nurseries is not being cut but "reprofiled". #fmqs

david_herdson

SeanT said:

I'm off to the gym, good evening to all, for now.

If this debate has proved one thing, it's that europhiles have absolutely no answer to the migration problem/issue - they don't even properly understand it. They do understand, however, that it could be fatal to their cause.

The LEAVERS need to play this carefully, and not come over too Heinrich Himmlerish, but events, the migration crisis above all else, are very much on their side.

It may not matter than LEAVE is led by a cabal of painted buffoons, if REMAIN are truly so clueless on this utterly dominant subject.

Later.

The solution is simple; it's federalist.

You need a European-backed border force with guns and ships in the Med and Aegean. The issue is too big for Greece and others on the front line to handle.

However, that solution's not going to play well in Britain either.

Plato_Says

A stimulating comparison between Litvinenko & that much misunderstood purchaser of posh baklava, Jihadi John... https://t.co/8SUGQWOGaH

CAGE strikes again.

david_herdson

On topic, Mike is spot-on. Whether or not Cruz is eligible (I don't expect a definitive ruling this side of the conventions - there's no constitutional bar on someone being *nominated*), it will affect people's perceptions and that can only play to Cruz's disadvantage.

One side-effect will be that if this does become a significant media narrative, it'll tend to freeze other support as it'll make it harder for Kasich (say) to breakthrough or for anyone to score hits on Trump.

volcanopete

Anyone considering a punt on Rubio should take a look at any number of articles for the New Yorker pretty much rubbishing his back story and strongly suggesting he will be unable to secure the 35% of Hispanic voters GOP thinks it needs.In other words,he is a loser.
However odd and scary it may seem,we are a step closer to President Trump and Vice President Palin.A racist,climate-change denying presidency funded by the fossil fuel industry in charge of NATO's military capacity.

RobD

SeanT said:

Parting gift. Fate of Ed Stone revealed. Cost £8000. Some amusing details.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/the-mystery-of-labour-s-two-ton-u-k-election-debacle-solved

It can't be destroyed, it just can't be I was hoping they'd find it in a thousand years time and wonder over its marvel.

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Parting gift. Fate of Ed Stone revealed. Cost £8000. Some amusing details.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/the-mystery-of-labour-s-two-ton-u-k-election-debacle-solved

It can't be destroyed, it just can't be I was hoping they'd find it in a thousand years time and wonder over it's marvel.

If it cost 8 grand, the Tories should make a new one.

Ed's massive erection that cost him the election. (It didn't really)

Plato_Says

Lolz

Joe Murphy
Mary Creagh squashed by T.May for seeking UN Sec Council talks. May: "I'm not sure what SC, of which Russia is a permanent member, wd do."

Pulpstar

volcanopete said:

Anyone considering a punt on Rubio should take a look at any number of articles for the New Yorker pretty much rubbishing his back story and strongly suggesting he will be unable to secure the 35% of Hispanic voters GOP thinks it needs.In other words,he is a loser.
However odd and scary it may seem,we are a step closer to President Trump and Vice President Palin.A racist,climate-change denying presidency funded by the fossil fuel industry in charge of NATO's military capacity.

Anyone considering a punt on Rubio should wait till after he's been walloped in the first three states. You should be able to get better odds after that lot than the miserly 11-4 or so offered now.

Wanderer

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Parting gift. Fate of Ed Stone revealed. Cost £8000. Some amusing details.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/the-mystery-of-labour-s-two-ton-u-k-election-debacle-solved

It can't be destroyed, it just can't be I was hoping they'd find it in a thousand years time and wonder over it's marvel.

If it cost 8 grand, the Tories should make a new one.

Ed's massive erection that cost him the election. (It didn't really)

I like the story that Cameron didn't believe it when he was first told.

Casino_Royale

God, not this again.

TheScreamingEagles

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Parting gift. Fate of Ed Stone revealed. Cost £8000. Some amusing details.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/the-mystery-of-labour-s-two-ton-u-k-election-debacle-solved

It can't be destroyed, it just can't be I was hoping they'd find it in a thousand years time and wonder over it's marvel.

If it cost 8 grand, the Tories should make a new one.

Ed's massive erection that cost him the election. (It didn't really)

I like the story that Cameron didn't believe it when he was first told.

He wasn't the only one.

I now really regret not doing a thread on it at the time.

Wanderer

Casino_Royale said:

God, not this again.

You don't fancy a dissection of the words "natural born" with your lunch?!

RobD

Casino_Royale said:

God, not this again.

What? Birthers, or the Ed Stone?

TheScreamingEagles

Sort of on topic, if GOP primaries were to be conducted under AV, that would be bad news for Trump?

Wanderer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Parting gift. Fate of Ed Stone revealed. Cost £8000. Some amusing details.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/the-mystery-of-labour-s-two-ton-u-k-election-debacle-solved

It can't be destroyed, it just can't be I was hoping they'd find it in a thousand years time and wonder over it's marvel.

If it cost 8 grand, the Tories should make a new one.

Ed's massive erection that cost him the election. (It didn't really)

I like the story that Cameron didn't believe it when he was first told.

He wasn't the only one.

I now really regret not doing a thread on it at the time.

My first reaction was that the picture was photoshopped and a pisstake.

logical_song

SeanT said:

I'm off to the gym, good evening to all, for now.

If this debate has proved one thing, it's that europhiles have absolutely no answer to the migration problem/issue - they don't even properly understand it. They do understand, however, that it could be fatal to their cause.

The LEAVERS need to play this carefully, and not come over too Heinrich Himmlerish, but events, the migration crisis above all else, are very much on their side.

It may not matter than LEAVE is led by a cabal of painted buffoons, if REMAIN are truly so clueless on this utterly dominant subject.

Later.

" LEAVERS need to play this carefully, and not come over too Heinrich Himmlerish,"
That'll be the tricky bit.

Casino_Royale

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

I'm off to the gym, good evening to all, for now.

If this debate has proved one thing, it's that europhiles have absolutely no answer to the migration problem/issue - they don't even properly understand it. They do understand, however, that it could be fatal to their cause.

The LEAVERS need to play this carefully, and not come over too Heinrich Himmlerish, but events, the migration crisis above all else, are very much on their side.

It may not matter than LEAVE is led by a cabal of painted buffoons, if REMAIN are truly so clueless on this utterly dominant subject.

Later.

The solution is simple; it's federalist.

You need a European-backed border force with guns and ships in the Med and Aegean. The issue is too big for Greece and others on the front line to handle.

However, that solution's not going to play well in Britain either.

What the British people are really asking for is More Europe.

Casino_Royale

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Parting gift. Fate of Ed Stone revealed. Cost £8000. Some amusing details.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/the-mystery-of-labour-s-two-ton-u-k-election-debacle-solved

It can't be destroyed, it just can't be I was hoping they'd find it in a thousand years time and wonder over it's marvel.

If it cost 8 grand, the Tories should make a new one.

Ed's massive erection that cost him the election. (It didn't really)

I like the story that Cameron didn't believe it when he was first told.

I love the Indiana Jones reference: "It belongs in a museum!"

TheScreamingEagles

paulwaugh: Gallows humour from Labour insider on Burnham calling for FSB agents to be kicked out of UK: "Is Seumas on his way then?"

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sort of on topic, if GOP primaries were to be conducted under AV, that would be bad news for Trump?

I suggest you write a letter to Reinhold Richard "Reince" Priebus (The current GOP chair) immediately.

isam

SeanT said:

I'm off to the gym, good evening to all, for now.

If this debate has proved one thing, it's that europhiles have absolutely no answer to the migration problem/issue - they don't even properly understand it. They do understand, however, that it could be fatal to their cause.

The LEAVERS need to play this carefully, and not come over too Heinrich Himmlerish, but events, the migration crisis above all else, are very much on their side.

It may not matter than LEAVE is led by a cabal of painted buffoons, if REMAIN are truly so clueless on this utterly dominant subject.

Later.

"utterly dominant subject"

The more clueless on here don't agree with you that it is the dominant subject, despite immigration or terrorism being the no1 concern for the public in the polls

They think LEAVE should ignore immigration and the refugee crisis and focus on micro analysing EU treaties etc

dr_spyn

I have a email from Edward in Stone, did this cost Labour the election?

First the bacon sandwich, then the monumental disaster of the Tombstone, and Labour still had change out of £10K.

Wanderer

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

SeanT said:

I'm off to the gym, good evening to all, for now.

If this debate has proved one thing, it's that europhiles have absolutely no answer to the migration problem/issue - they don't even properly understand it. They do understand, however, that it could be fatal to their cause.

The LEAVERS need to play this carefully, and not come over too Heinrich Himmlerish, but events, the migration crisis above all else, are very much on their side.

It may not matter than LEAVE is led by a cabal of painted buffoons, if REMAIN are truly so clueless on this utterly dominant subject.

Later.

The solution is simple; it's federalist.

You need a European-backed border force with guns and ships in the Med and Aegean. The issue is too big for Greece and others on the front line to handle.

However, that solution's not going to play well in Britain either.

What the British people are really asking for is More Europe.

Would a European border force that meant business be unpopular here, provided it wasn't deployed here?

I think it would become controversial if it used its guns, but that's another matter.

Pulpstar

If we have net migration of 300,000 a year and build 30,000 houses a year - where does that leave us ?

TheScreamingEagles

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Parting gift. Fate of Ed Stone revealed. Cost £8000. Some amusing details.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/the-mystery-of-labour-s-two-ton-u-k-election-debacle-solved

It can't be destroyed, it just can't be I was hoping they'd find it in a thousand years time and wonder over it's marvel.

If it cost 8 grand, the Tories should make a new one.

Ed's massive erection that cost him the election. (It didn't really)

I like the story that Cameron didn't believe it when he was first told.

He wasn't the only one.

I now really regret not doing a thread on it at the time.

My first reaction was that the picture was photoshopped and a pisstake.

I had spent four hours writing a thread on a subject I had been heavily briefed about a few days earlier and wanted to go to bed.

david_herdson

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Parting gift. Fate of Ed Stone revealed. Cost £8000. Some amusing details.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/the-mystery-of-labour-s-two-ton-u-k-election-debacle-solved

It can't be destroyed, it just can't be I was hoping they'd find it in a thousand years time and wonder over it's marvel.

If it cost 8 grand, the Tories should make a new one.

Ed's massive erection that cost him the election. (It didn't really)

I like the story that Cameron didn't believe it when he was first told.

He wasn't the only one.

I now really regret not doing a thread on it at the time.

My first reaction was that the picture was photoshopped and a pisstake.

My first reaction was that Miliband's signature looks like it was written by a five year old.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Parting gift. Fate of Ed Stone revealed. Cost £8000. Some amusing details.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/the-mystery-of-labour-s-two-ton-u-k-election-debacle-solved

It can't be destroyed, it just can't be I was hoping they'd find it in a thousand years time and wonder over it's marvel.

If it cost 8 grand, the Tories should make a new one.

Ed's massive erection that cost him the election. (It didn't really)

I like the story that Cameron didn't believe it when he was first told.

He wasn't the only one.

I now really regret not doing a thread on it at the time.

My first reaction was that the picture was photoshopped and a pisstake.

I had spent four hours writing a thread on a subject I had been heavily briefed about a few days earlier and wanted to go to bed.

I suggest you get your pen out.

"Dear Reince"...

Plato_Says

LabourPaul
Let's not forget the EdStone was launched in Hastings & Rye, a former Labour seat on the target list which now has a Tory maj of 4,700.

Tissue_Price

Pulpstar said:

volcanopete said:

Anyone considering a punt on Rubio should take a look at any number of articles for the New Yorker pretty much rubbishing his back story and strongly suggesting he will be unable to secure the 35% of Hispanic voters GOP thinks it needs.In other words,he is a loser.
However odd and scary it may seem,we are a step closer to President Trump and Vice President Palin.A racist,climate-change denying presidency funded by the fossil fuel industry in charge of NATO's military capacity.

Anyone considering a punt on Rubio should wait till after he's been walloped in the first three states. You should be able to get better odds after that lot than the miserly 11-4 or so offered now.

This is my plan.

CDM

FPT:

Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.

I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?

Wanderer

david_herdson said:

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Parting gift. Fate of Ed Stone revealed. Cost £8000. Some amusing details.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/the-mystery-of-labour-s-two-ton-u-k-election-debacle-solved

It can't be destroyed, it just can't be I was hoping they'd find it in a thousand years time and wonder over it's marvel.

If it cost 8 grand, the Tories should make a new one.

Ed's massive erection that cost him the election. (It didn't really)

I like the story that Cameron didn't believe it when he was first told.

He wasn't the only one.

I now really regret not doing a thread on it at the time.

My first reaction was that the picture was photoshopped and a pisstake.

My first reaction was that Miliband's signature looks like it was written by a five year old.

Also the sheer vacuity of the "pledges".

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Parting gift. Fate of Ed Stone revealed. Cost £8000. Some amusing details.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/the-mystery-of-labour-s-two-ton-u-k-election-debacle-solved

It can't be destroyed, it just can't be I was hoping they'd find it in a thousand years time and wonder over it's marvel.

If it cost 8 grand, the Tories should make a new one.

Ed's massive erection that cost him the election. (It didn't really)

I like the story that Cameron didn't believe it when he was first told.

He wasn't the only one.

I now really regret not doing a thread on it at the time.

My first reaction was that the picture was photoshopped and a pisstake.

I had spent four hours writing a thread on a subject I had been heavily briefed about a few days earlier and wanted to go to bed.

I suggest you get your pen out.

"Dear Reince"...

I'm not sure a letter from an English chap with a Muslim sounding name doing something that will disadvantage Trump will be my best move.

DecrepitJohnL

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sort of on topic, if GOP primaries were to be conducted under AV, that would be bad news for Trump?

Hard to say because of the number of other candidates. If candidate X drops out, where do X's second preferences go? Is Bush the Establishment candidate, or Kasich or Christie or, at a push, Rubio? Even if X falls, that sector (Establishment, outsider, tea party, evangelical, religious) is still split. And probably X's voters were a coalition in the first place.

Indeed, you could look at the primaries race as a sort of drawn-out STV (treating the different states' electorates as fungible).

bigjohnowls

CDM said:

FPT:

Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.

I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?

Certainly expect a likleyjhood to vote differential.

Leavers much more likely to vote IMO

JosiasJessop

CDM said:

FPT:

Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.

I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?

I think there're still many people - perhaps most - who are still at the instinctual stage. They haven't really thought much about the referendum, or engaged with the issues, and if they have a view it is an instinctual one.

There is certainly a great deal of heat coming from a handful of people I know on both sides, with the rest just shrugging their shoulders (sometimes literally) and changing the subject.

richardDodd

Pulpstar Ten to a house..just like it was at home..

flightpath01

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

LucyJones said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

watford30 said:

Many will bide their time, having learnt enough German to get by, before hot footing it over here as soon as possible. The language is the key.

They can't hot-foot it over here.

They can if they get a German - i.e. EU - passport. "Relaxing" the necessary requirements to be eligible for German passport is one very obvious way for Frau Merkel to help deal with the massive influx of migrants who seem to be currently overwhelming Germany.

That would be extremely difficult to get through the German parliament. Germany has always been one of the hardest countries in Europe to become a citizen of, and the Cologne attacks would hardly make MPs there keen to make it easier for refugees to become citizens.

But if making them citizens is the easiest way to 'export' them? Hand over a one way ticket to Luton with every passport.

I don't buy that.

Take us. Once you get a UK passport, you can go to Germany, etc.

Can you believe a UK government would make it easier for refugees to get UK passports so they could go elsewhere in Europe?

Would that be saleable in parliament if people are concerned about the number of refugees?

Look at the stats. Look at my link to the Guardian report. You're delusional if you think these people won't want to come to welfare-generous English-speaking Britain, just as soon as they get a permit.

They're already coming. And that was before the 1m "Syrians"

Yes, and in eight years, some of those 1m or 2m Syrians are going to come to the UK. I agree. (Although as it is highly likely they won't be eligible for any benefits for four years, in eight years time, I would have thought they might stay somewhere where they are eligible for social housing and benefits, but that's another story.)

My fundamentl point, though, is that I don't think it would be politically popular in Germany to make it easier for refugees to get German passports. In fact, I suspect - and Austria is leading the way - that it will become harder for refigees to get passports in future.

I think you are correct.
At least you are not making up fanciful assertions and spitting them out of your fundamental orifice.

Plato_Says

I think the Cologne Effect and Merkel more generally has made it perfectly acceptable to say Not Here Thanks.

Leave are finally getting their crap together. Remain are by contrast puffing US evil banksters funding them. Awful PR.

CDM said:

FPT:

Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.

I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?

dr_spyn

https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/690150828406087680

Incompetence - couldn't work out where to erect it. Huge damage to brand, party image at such low cost.

taffys

They think LEAVE should ignore immigration and the refugee crisis and focus on micro analysing EU treaties etc

You can see whole threads here with posters poring over treaties to see what we can and can't do.

Meanwhile cornerstone principles turn to ash when the EU is threatened, as we now see with the Dublin treaty.

We are being lined up as a dumping ground for German folly. A landfill for their policy catastrophe.

bigjohnowls

Milburn,Hewitt,Lansley triple disaster SOS"s on DP

Wanderer

CDM said:

FPT:

Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.

I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?

I don't think that will be the case here. If anything, Leavers are more assertive in expressing their opinions than Remainists.

Moses_

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

LucyJones said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

watford30 said:

Many will bide their time, having learnt enough German to get by, before hot footing it over here as soon as possible. The language is the key.

They can't hot-foot it over here.

They can if they get a German - i.e. EU - passport. "Relaxing" the necessary requirements to be eligible for German passport is one very obvious way for Frau Merkel to help deal with the massive influx of migrants who seem to be currently overwhelming Germany.

That would be extremely difficult to get through the German parliament. Germany has always been one of the hardest countries in Europe to become a citizen of, and the Cologne attacks would hardly make MPs there keen to make it easier for refugees to become citizens.

But if making them citizens is the easiest way to 'export' them? Hand over a one way ticket to Luton with every passport.

I don't buy that.

Take us. Once you get a UK passport, you can go to Germany, etc.

Can you believe a UK government would make it easier for refugees to get UK passports so they could go elsewhere in Europe?

Would that be saleable in parliament if people are concerned about the number of refugees?

I think that's rather illogical. They want to be here they wouldn't want to leave that's the point. Meanwhile all the others really want to be here but they can put up with incredible discomfort poverty and starvation in another country for a few years....like France and Germany

TheScreamingEagles

I like Bernie Sanders even more, from 1995

https://magazine.good.is/videos/bernie-sanders-shuts-down-member-of-house

Plato_Says

.@wdjstraw contests suggestions up to 30 Labour MPs could campaign for Britain to leave the EU #bbcdp https://t.co/09qgOmupJL

Pulpstar

bigjohnowls said:

Milburn,Hewitt,Lansley triple disaster SOS"s on DP

Hunt's a massive improvement, I quite agree.

peter_from_putney

Kasich's odds for the GOP nomination continue to shorten, but almost certainly it's now too late for him to impact seriously.

isam

taffys said:

They think LEAVE should ignore immigration and the refugee crisis and focus on micro analysing EU treaties etc

You can see whole threads here with posters poring over treaties to see what we can and can't do.

Meanwhile cornerstone principles turn to ash when the EU is threatened, as we now see with the Dublin treaty.

We are being lined up as a dumping ground for German folly. A landfill for their policy catastrophe.

How can people who devote a lot of time to arguing the merits of mass immigration, and downplaying the problems it brings, reconcile that with having to look at any cost as if they are a shrewdie who only ever wins arguments, when the argument most likely to appeal to voters (as backed by the polls) is the fear of immigration and violence??

A tricky one...

JosiasJessop

Wanderer said:

CDM said:

FPT:

Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.

I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?

I don't think that will be the case here. If anything, Leavers are more assertive in expressing their opinions than Remainists.

If the standard of 'debate' on here is anything to go by, then remain will win by a landslide. If only for their (relative) politeness.

BTW, had a leaflet for remain (I think BSE) through the post yesterday. A large one, but haven't laughed at read it yet.

CDM

Plato_Says said:

I think the Cologne Effect and Merkel more generally has made it perfectly acceptable to say Not Here Thanks.

Leave are finally getting their crap together. Remain are by contrast puffing US evil banksters funding them. Awful PR.

CDM said:

FPT:

Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.

I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?

I'm not so sure. I work in finance (but not for a bank), and when the topic comes up and I mention that I'm for leave there is genuine surprise. I also met somebody else in the same sector who feels the same way, but wouldn't say so in a discussion forum because she thought she would be alone.

It might be just a City thing; would be good to hear Charles' view.

Moses_

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

SeanT said:

Parting gift. Fate of Ed Stone revealed. Cost £8000. Some amusing details.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-21/the-mystery-of-labour-s-two-ton-u-k-election-debacle-solved

It can't be destroyed, it just can't be I was hoping they'd find it in a thousand years time and wonder over it's marvel.

If it cost 8 grand, the Tories should make a new one.

Ed's massive erection that cost him the election. (It didn't really)

They should make little miniatures of it and sell them on Oxford St next to the plastic imitations of Big Ben and Harry Potter.

taffys

''Leave are finally getting their crap together. Remain are by contrast puffing US evil banksters funding them. Awful PR. ''

I am starting to wonder if we will get a referendum in 2016 at all. The spring thaw will start soon and Europe will be inundated. The chance of Cameron winning a referendum under those circumstances are pretty dicey, and he will never accept an out vote.

TheWhiteRabbit

Pulpstar said:

If we have net migration of 300,000 a year and build 30,000 houses a year - where does that leave us ?

We completed 150,000 homes last year. The real problem is we didn't during the downturn.

CDM

Wanderer said:

CDM said:

FPT:

Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.

I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?

I don't think that will be the case here. If anything, Leavers are more assertive in expressing their opinions than Remainists.

If only the whole country were like PB

Full of civil, well-informed people who who love threads on AV...

bigjohnowls

Clare Gerada one of the people I respect most on NHS matters just named Stephn Dorrell as her favourite SOS along with Bevan.

I agree on both counts.

BBC just wheeled out my worst 2 Milburn / Lansley

HYUFD

CDM said:

FPT:

Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.

I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?

Unlikely given most of the tabloids back Out and Leave will likely be almost as vocal as Yes in indyref. If anything there could be a 'shy Remain' vote

bigjohnowls

Pulpstar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Milburn,Hewitt,Lansley triple disaster SOS"s on DP

Hunt's a massive improvement, I quite agree.

LOL Funnily enough I think Hunt is less bad than Milburn/Lansley.

Hunt clearly fooked by the reforms of both of them.

LondonBob

Two interesting articles.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/how-donald-trump-defeats-hillary-clinton-217868

Remember Trump has swagger, which is why rappers often give him a shout out, so black voters respond well to him, and his policies.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/266389-donors-changing-their-tune-on-donald-trump

Trump needs the support of the respectable Republican establishment and donors. Sorry loons this doesn't mean the Sheldon Adelson's of this world, Trump's foreign policy will be framed in the American national interest and is not for sale, but the patriotic business community will I expect rally to Trump.

TGOHF

Plato_Says said:

I think the Cologne Effect and Merkel more generally has made it perfectly acceptable to say Not Here Thanks.

Leave are finally getting their crap together. Remain are by contrast puffing US evil banksters funding them. Awful PR.

CDM said:

FPT:

Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.

I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?

The only good card "Remain" have left is Cameron.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sort of on topic, if GOP primaries were to be conducted under AV, that would be bad news for Trump?

Most polls now have Trump beating Rubio head to head, the GOP base want an anti establishment populist it seems and the issue of Cruz's birthplace helps ensure that is Trump

AlastairMeeks

It's a fairly silly rule. There are many things which might make you not want to vote for Ted Cruz as president of the USA, but an accident of birth seems an odd reason to debar him completely, however the legal technicalities might operate.

But it's their country, their constitution.

One more example why a codified constitution has drawbacks.

Pulpstar

bigjohnowls said:

Pulpstar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Milburn,Hewitt,Lansley triple disaster SOS"s on DP

Hunt's a massive improvement, I quite agree.

LOL Funnily enough I think Hunt is less bad than Milburn/Lansley.

Hunt clearly fooked by the reforms of both of them.

Milburn is precisely the reason Corbyn got voted in as Labour leader

TheScreamingEagles

For fans of cricket and Nick Clegg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZPtNrNWYAAuh_V.jpg:large

Plato_Says

I agree, and he's a great hand. IIRC his personal credibility is worth c5pts with undecideds.

TGOHF said:

Plato_Says said:

I think the Cologne Effect and Merkel more generally has made it perfectly acceptable to say Not Here Thanks.

Leave are finally getting their crap together. Remain are by contrast puffing US evil banksters funding them. Awful PR.

CDM said:

FPT:

Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.

I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?

The only good card "Remain" have left is Cameron.

Scott_P

@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq

taffys

''One more example why a codified constitution has drawbacks. ''

And huge, towering strengths. For one, free speech.

NorfolkTilIDie

Judging from convos I been having with Americans online, it seems like the #newyorkvalues attack hurt Cruz far more than his birthplace has.

Plato_Says

Peter Brooks
My cartoon Thursday @TheTimes 'Wallace' Miliband whitewashed in #Labour's Election Defeat Report. https://t.co/fG7ZMBcG5N

david_herdson

volcanopete said:

Anyone considering a punt on Rubio should take a look at any number of articles for the New Yorker pretty much rubbishing his back story and strongly suggesting he will be unable to secure the 35% of Hispanic voters GOP thinks it needs.In other words,he is a loser.
However odd and scary it may seem,we are a step closer to President Trump and Vice President Palin.A racist,climate-change denying presidency funded by the fossil fuel industry in charge of NATO's military capacity.

Palin will not be on the ticket.

Trump is many things but stupid isn't one of them.

bigjohnowls

Tonights This Week Liz 4% Kendall is on

Another early night for me.

Mind you not sure if i will be able to sleep after the excitment of Railway talk I am attending

Dawn of Nationalisation

Images from the Percy Moseley. Collection from the years 1947, 1948 and 1949.

Should be brilliant

Pulpstar

david_herdson said:

volcanopete said:

Anyone considering a punt on Rubio should take a look at any number of articles for the New Yorker pretty much rubbishing his back story and strongly suggesting he will be unable to secure the 35% of Hispanic voters GOP thinks it needs.In other words,he is a loser.
However odd and scary it may seem,we are a step closer to President Trump and Vice President Palin.A racist,climate-change denying presidency funded by the fossil fuel industry in charge of NATO's military capacity.

Palin will not be on the ticket.

Trump is many things but stupid isn't one of them.

Palin is there for the evangelical network. It's a nuke right to the heart of Ted Cruz.

Wanderer

bigjohnowls said:

Tonights This Week Liz 4% Kendall is on

Another early night for me.

Mind you not sure if i will be able to sleep after the excitment of Railway talk I am attending

Dawn of Nationalisation

Images from the Percy Moseley. Collection from the years 1947, 1948 and 1949.

Should be brilliant

Nationalisation porn?

MarkHopkins

Scott_P said:

@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq

Corbyn: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st Century we could get into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it."

The Islands that are 300 miles away?

He can't even get his facts straight.

Plato_Says

Adam Grey
Was asked earlier re @guardiannews story on just 1.8% of Lab members having to "budget to make ends meet" what the solution was. 3 ideas...

1) give anyone canvassed as Lab from those MOSAIC "budget" groups automatic free membership for 1 year and spend year trying to retain them

Interesting idea

NorfolkTilIDie

One problem for Cameron is Junker has said he wants deal on refugees at same time as UK deal. As refugee deal is likely to mean end of Dublin convention that means more refugees in UK. Not great for dual coverage. 2017 referendum could be more likely than peeps think.

Wanderer

NorfolkTilIDie said:

One problem for Cameron is Junker has said he wants deal on refugees at same time as UK deal. As refugee deal is likely to mean end of Dublin convention that means more refugees in UK. Not great for dual coverage. 2017 referendum could be more likely than peeps think.

What advantage would there be in delay?

blackburn63

SeanT said:

I'm off to the gym, good evening to all, for now.

If this debate has proved one thing, it's that europhiles have absolutely no answer to the migration problem/issue - they don't even properly understand it. They do understand, however, that it could be fatal to their cause.

The LEAVERS need to play this carefully, and not come over too Heinrich Himmlerish, but events, the migration crisis above all else, are very much on their side.

It may not matter than LEAVE is led by a cabal of painted buffoons, if REMAIN are truly so clueless on this utterly dominant subject.

Later.

The "undecideds" are attempting to muddy the waters with "ah but what happens if we leave" nonsense, knowing that Leave means humiliation for Dave. Of course millions will, metaphorically, stand on the breakwater at Dover, look at the camps in Calais and ignore the nuances of the EEA, ECHR, ECJ, etc etc and decide they've had enough.

Somebody earlier referred to the camps in Kent where people are desperate to reach the Continent, a bit like all those Americans who drowned trying to reach Cuba on rafts.

[Deleted User]

On Topic: Everyone knows the difference between a Caesarean section birth and a natural birth. I'm sure Cruz was a natural born American. ;-)

taffys

All those europhile lefties who slag off Cameron should thank their luckies he is at the helm.

David Cameron is the Sam Allardyce of politics. Constantly getting his team out of scrapes, but never loved by the fans.

Wanderer

SeanT said:

Plato_Says said:

I agree, and he's a great hand. IIRC his personal credibility is worth c5pts with undecideds.

TGOHF said:

Plato_Says said:

I think the Cologne Effect and Merkel more generally has made it perfectly acceptable to say Not Here Thanks.

Leave are finally getting their crap together. Remain are by contrast puffing US evil banksters funding them. Awful PR.

CDM said:

FPT:

Do other posters think there will be a 'shy Leave' vote? I'm thinking back to the Irish gay marriage vote, which saw the antis do better than the polls suggested, probably because the political classes and the media lined up behind the pro position.

I think some people will support leave but be reluctant to admit it for fear of being thought a kipper. What do people think?

The only good card "Remain" have left is Cameron.

Yes. Imagine anyone else (with the possible exception of BoJo) leading the REMAIN campaign. Osborne, Miliband, May, Blair, Mandelson, Brown, Major, Corbyn, Salmond, Clegg...

REMAIN would lose under all these.

All those europhile lefties who slag off Cameron should thank their luckies he is at the helm.

Absolutely. And I think Cameron will generate a Remain upswing when he unveils his deal. I think that will be the time to back Leave though as the effect won't last (which is just a hunch tbh).

logical_song

MarkHopkins said:

Scott_P said:

@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq

Corbyn: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st Century we could get into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it."

The Islands that are 300 miles away?

He can't even get his facts straight.

In which case, what about Gibraltar and the Channel Islands?

TheScreamingEagles

taffys said:

All those europhile lefties who slag off Cameron should thank their luckies he is at the helm.

David Cameron is the Sam Allardyce of politics. Constantly getting his team out of scrapes, but never loved by the fans.

Well that's your opinion masquerading as facts.

Most recent poll - 84% approval rating among Tory voters.

MarkHopkins

logical_song said:

MarkHopkins said:

Scott_P said:

@TelePolitics: David Cameron tells new Argentinian President: 'Absolutely clear' Falkland Islands want to remain British https://t.co/dJRVctM2kq

Corbyn: "It seems to me ridiculous that in the 21st Century we could get into some enormous conflict with Argentina about the islands just off it."

The Islands that are 300 miles away?

He can't even get his facts straight.

In which case, what about Gibraltar and the Channel Islands?

Irrelevant to the point.