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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : January 14th 2016
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : January 14th 2016
Launceston Central (Ind defence, elected as Lib Dem) on Cornwall
Result of council at last election (2013): Independent 37, Liberal Democrats 36, Conservatives 31, Labour 6, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Mebynon Kernow 4, Green Party 1 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 25)
Result of ward at last election (2013):
0
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As always, thanks for preparing this!
I think the title race is a bit too open (though I put a quid each way on at 3000/1 in August!). I think a top 4 place is pretty nailed on though, it is a big gap to 5th place. Availible at just under evens now.
The success of Natcen's BSA research in identifying political affiliation is partly the purity of the sample, partly the persistence of the people pursuing the sampled voters and partly their success in building a relationship with who they interview which encourages honesty.
To be honest I am not entirely sure if it has worked or not.
The defence is pretty solid with 3 clean sheets in a row in the league. Vardy seemed a little slow last night, but is only a week post op and seemed comfortable. Mahrez has always slowed down a little in the winter. I think he feels the cold and damp a bit. There are no real injuries in the squad and morale is sky high.
I have noticed that our defence concede a lot of corners (which are well defended). It is worth betting on lots of these IMO. Not only does this allow the defence to get organised, it sucks the oponents defenders up the pitch and exposes them to the break. I have seen a fair number of goals that we have scored within a minute of an opposition corner.
It's amazing all those wishing to make racist attacks are even able to find a jewish person to attack given those numbers. They can be a dedicated bunch, racist idiots.
It checks the files haven't been corrupted.
France has the third largest Jewish population in the world apparantly. Most are (like French Muslims) of Maghrebi descent.
It would be interesting to know the demographic of the attackers.
Though I think we can all make a guess.
On a related note Merkel's madness has perhaps increased the number of Jew haters in Germany to its highest since the 1940s.
ETA: Yes, all 96 Manchester councillors are Labour.
Holyrood Constituency:
SNP: 52%
LAB: 21%
CON: 16%
LD: 7%
Other: 4%
https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH
@davieclegg: BREAKING: #sp16 poll
Holyrood List Vote
SNP: 42%
LAB: 20%
CON: 16%
LD: 8%
Green: 9%
UKIP: 5%
Other: <1%
https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH
Seats predicted by Weber Shandwick’s Scotland Votes tool.
SNP 70
LAB 26
CON 18
GREEN 8
LD 7
https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH
" The two Wirral seats are the best examples of the Tories' Northern problem. Nice houses (some VERY nice) everywhere, no universities anywhere or especially high numbers of trendy 20-somethings, barely a non-white face to be seen.
Both Labour in 2015. "
And both on Merseyside.
Merseyside =/= North.
By way of comparison take a look at Ed Balls exMP to see formerly safe Labour areas in the North trending Conservative (or rightwards generally).
Northern England has much the same electoral trends as the rest of the country:
Public sector middle class -> leftwards
Private sector working class -> rightwards
Cities -> leftwards
Towns -> rightwards
Since the additional powers will be exercised in perpetuity by the raving Corbynistas, I have politely declined the offer.
Should Scotland be independent? No 51% Yes 49%
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/snp-course-increase-holyrood-majority-7182713
In all seriousness, does that mean they are polling more in Scotland than nationally? Definitely not sure that can be trusted.
Today is the annivesary of the Casablanca Conference in 1943, attended by Churchill, FDR, de Gaulle and Giraud.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casablanca_Conference
During the Conference, Roosevelt spoke with the French resident general at Rabat, Morocco, about postwar independence and Jewish immigrants in North Africa. Roosevelt proposed that:
"[t]he number of Jews engaged in the practice of the professions (law, medicine, etc.) should be definitely limited to the percentage that the Jewish population in North Africa bears to the whole of the North African population.... [T]his plan would further eliminate the specific and understandable complaints which the Germans bore towards the Jews in Germany, namely, that while they represented a small part of the population, over 50 percent of the lawyers, doctors, schoolteachers, college professors, etc., in Germany were Jews."[13][14]
This disposition of the Jewish population harkened back to a mindset communicated in earlier years to Roosevelt by the American ambassador to Germany, William Dodd (1933–37). Dodd had appraised Germany's repression of Jews, and writing to Roosevelt, he said: "The Jews had held a great many more of the key positions in Germany than their number or talents entitled them to."[15]
And more than either on luck.
If so I can imagine the reaction in Sunderland.
I'm sure there's someone in the world with a less aurally-pleasing voice than George Osborne, but I'm yet to discover it.
Trump 33%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 13%
Carson 12%
Bush 5%
http://www.scribd.com/doc/295502565/NBC-WSJ-January-Poll
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casablanca_Conference
During the Conference, Roosevelt spoke with the French resident general at Rabat, Morocco, about postwar independence and Jewish immigrants in North Africa. Roosevelt proposed that:
"[t]he number of Jews engaged in the practice of the professions (law, medicine, etc.) should be definitely limited to the percentage that the Jewish population in North Africa bears to the whole of the North African population.... [T]his plan would further eliminate the specific and understandable complaints which the Germans bore towards the Jews in Germany, namely, that while they represented a small part of the population, over 50 percent of the lawyers, doctors, schoolteachers, college professors, etc., in Germany were Jews."[13][14]
This disposition of the Jewish population harkened back to a mindset communicated in earlier years to Roosevelt by the American ambassador to Germany, William Dodd (1933–37). Dodd had appraised Germany's repression of Jews, and writing to Roosevelt, he said: "The Jews had held a great many more of the key positions in Germany than their number or talents entitled them to."[15]
Dear me.
I wonder how many Jewish Democrat voters knew about that.
#rumbled.
Roll on windows 10, they bring back the start menu, but inexplicably make it virtually useless. Not sure how they managed it. It is years behind even the windows XP start menu, never mind the more sophisticated windows vista and 7.
The good thing about windows 10 though, is now as a user there is no real difference between a modern 'app' and a desktop programme. You interact with them in the same way, making the user experience much better.
The only real thing you need to do to turn windows 10 into a much more functional machine is install classic shell from classicshell dot net and after installing click on the flag in bottom left hand corner and choose the style of start menu you want. After than Windows 10 becomes pretty much a better version of 7.
Once leadership becomes rotten its very difficult to reform.
Public sector -> Private sector.
Good news for the Tories as well as the economy.
AWESOME!
Wee SCon hearts.
If the Lab-SNP pact had been thought much more unlikely then you would have had fewer 'fear factor' Conservative votes and a few more Labour, LibDem and UKIP MPs and a minority Conservative government.
In what sense is she "Metropolitan elite"?
While the ex-public schoolboy, City trader turned professional politician Nigel Farage is the authentic view of the Northern working class? Colour me a little unconvinced...
Many of those already 'tooled up' have terrible weapons handling skills, fingers on triggers, barrels pointing here there and everywhere, as they pootle about in public spaces.
Much as I disagree with Farage and they way he performed in the debates, Ukip are much more relevant to the Northern working class than Labour ever will be again.
'Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.'
Student union rent-a-gob.
Guess there are very few Labour MP's that want to go on TV and be associated with Corbyn therefore you have to scrape the barrel & end up with Smith.
Would she be more authentically Northern if she brought her whippet and snap-box of black pudding to QT?
That means she represents the views of all parts of Islington.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000764
Reference Bob Crow.
I suspect that she is not "socially conservative" enough to be against the first and in favour of the second.
After all there are no working class women or gays!
Good night.
And of course by the same token Farage is part of the "Brussels Elite"...
LD 515 Con 226 Green 65 CPA 12
Meanwhile UKIP elected one semi-detached MP.