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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : January 14th 2016
Launceston Central (Ind defence, elected as Lib Dem) on Cornwall
Result of council at last election (2013): Independent 37, Liberal Democrats 36, Conservatives 31, Labour 6, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Mebynon Kernow 4, Green Party 1 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 25)
Result of ward at last election (2013):
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Comments
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The most vital and pivotal election in the realm, tonight.
As always, thanks for preparing this!0 -
Second!0
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Newish computer which I am switching from Windows 8.1 to Windows 10 tonight. Please assure me my life is going to get better.0
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It could hardly get worse.DavidL said:Newish computer which I am switching from Windows 8.1 to Windows 10 tonight. Please assure me my life is going to get better.
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Cornwall gets to have devolved powers without the imposition of an elected mayor. No such option for anywhere in the north of England.0
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made the switch last week. hardly any differenceDavidL said:Newish computer which I am switching from Windows 8.1 to Windows 10 tonight. Please assure me my life is going to get better.
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Can't afford one, what with their 123-member council!SandyRentool said:Cornwall gets to have devolved powers without the imposition of an elected mayor. No such option for anywhere in the north of England.
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Windows 10 is much much better. 8.1 was dire.DavidL said:Newish computer which I am switching from Windows 8.1 to Windows 10 tonight. Please assure me my life is going to get better.
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Well done on the win last night, there's a good chance Leicester will be three points clear come Sunday night. I see you can still get 12-1 on Leicester for the title - that seems a bit long to me.foxinsoxuk said:Second!
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123? That’s nothing. We've got 126 in Durham!RobD said:
Can't afford one, what with their 123-member council!SandyRentool said:Cornwall gets to have devolved powers without the imposition of an elected mayor. No such option for anywhere in the north of England.
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Durham has almost twice the population as Cornwall, it should be a 246-member councilSandyRentool said:
123? That’s nothing. We've got 126 in Durham!RobD said:
Can't afford one, what with their 123-member council!SandyRentool said:Cornwall gets to have devolved powers without the imposition of an elected mayor. No such option for anywhere in the north of England.
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I am off to the Villa game. I don't often get the chance as often various other business on a Saturday (including working!). I shall enjoy it, it is likely to be a long time before we play David Cameron's Villa again, unless we get them in a cup.tlg86 said:
Well done on the win last night, there's a good chance Leicester will be three points clear come Sunday night. I see you can still get 12-1 on Leicester for the title - that seems a bit long to me.foxinsoxuk said:Second!
I think the title race is a bit too open (though I put a quid each way on at 3000/1 in August!). I think a top 4 place is pretty nailed on though, it is a big gap to 5th place. Availible at just under evens now.0 -
FPT
The success of Natcen's BSA research in identifying political affiliation is partly the purity of the sample, partly the persistence of the people pursuing the sampled voters and partly their success in building a relationship with who they interview which encourages honesty.0 -
If you get through the next five League games still in touching distance of the top you genuinely have a chance to win it. You probably need to beat Villa and Stoke, but draws at Man City and Arsenal would leave you in a very good position.foxinsoxuk said:
I am off to the Villa game. I don't often get the chance as often various other business on a Saturday (including working!). I shall enjoy it, it is likely to be a long time before we play David Cameron's Villa again, unless we get them in a cup.tlg86 said:
Well done on the win last night, there's a good chance Leicester will be three points clear come Sunday night. I see you can still get 12-1 on Leicester for the title - that seems a bit long to me.foxinsoxuk said:Second!
I think the title race is a bit too open (though I put a quid each way on at 3000/1 in August!). I think a top 4 place is pretty nailed on though, it is a big gap to 5th place. Availible at just under evens now.0 -
You'll get David Cameron's West Ham in 3 months though.foxinsoxuk said:it is likely to be a long time before we play David Cameron's Villa again, unless we get them in a cup.
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Thank you. I prefer your answer to the others. Bit like finding a doctor that tells you what you want to hear (woops).foxinsoxuk said:
Windows 10 is much much better. 8.1 was dire.DavidL said:Newish computer which I am switching from Windows 8.1 to Windows 10 tonight. Please assure me my life is going to get better.
To be honest I am not entirely sure if it has worked or not.0 -
Great views of Aston Villa's new stadium from the Olympic ParkTheuniondivvie said:
You'll get David Cameron's West Ham in 3 months though.foxinsoxuk said:it is likely to be a long time before we play David Cameron's Villa again, unless we get them in a cup.
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I was pretty happy with our reserves performance against Spurs in the Cup. There is some reasonable back up there (apart from Dyer - who was dire!).tlg86 said:
If you get through the next five League games still in touching distance of the top you genuinely have a chance to win it. You probably need to beat Villa and Stoke, but draws at Man City and Arsenal would leave you in a very good position.foxinsoxuk said:
I am off to the Villa game. I don't often get the chance as often various other business on a Saturday (including working!). I shall enjoy it, it is likely to be a long time before we play David Cameron's Villa again, unless we get them in a cup.tlg86 said:
Well done on the win last night, there's a good chance Leicester will be three points clear come Sunday night. I see you can still get 12-1 on Leicester for the title - that seems a bit long to me.foxinsoxuk said:Second!
I think the title race is a bit too open (though I put a quid each way on at 3000/1 in August!). I think a top 4 place is pretty nailed on though, it is a big gap to 5th place. Availible at just under evens now.
The defence is pretty solid with 3 clean sheets in a row in the league. Vardy seemed a little slow last night, but is only a week post op and seemed comfortable. Mahrez has always slowed down a little in the winter. I think he feels the cold and damp a bit. There are no real injuries in the squad and morale is sky high.
I have noticed that our defence concede a lot of corners (which are well defended). It is worth betting on lots of these IMO. Not only does this allow the defence to get organised, it sucks the oponents defenders up the pitch and exposes them to the break. I have seen a fair number of goals that we have scored within a minute of an opposition corner.
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I've binned Windows entirely now. I use a Samsung Chromebook, tablet and smartphone. Everything syncronises across all my devices, from my kindle app to my spotify. It is so much quicker and easier than when I had a steam powered Windows laptop, Sony phone and no tablet. Only downside is that Google knows everything. When I fart, Google probably knows from gas analysis what I had for tea!foxinsoxuk said:
Windows 10 is much much better. 8.1 was dire.DavidL said:Newish computer which I am switching from Windows 8.1 to Windows 10 tonight. Please assure me my life is going to get better.
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I am a huge fan of Cornwall Council - look at that diversity of seats. Labour are up from at one point having a single, lonely member on there. I know there are some councils with no labour or no tories, but few close to this large.0
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And probably determined whether your gas is ecologically damaging or not depending on methane content. No doubt you get a score.TwistedFireStopper said:
I've binned Windows entirely now. I use a Samsung Chromebook, tablet and smartphone. Everything syncronises across all my devices, from my kindle app to my spotify. It is so much quicker and easier than when I had a steam powered Windows laptop, Sony phone and no tablet. Only downside is that Google knows everything. When I fart, Google probably knows from gas analysis what I had for tea!foxinsoxuk said:
Windows 10 is much much better. 8.1 was dire.DavidL said:Newish computer which I am switching from Windows 8.1 to Windows 10 tonight. Please assure me my life is going to get better.
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A truly shocking figure:
Though Jews make up less than 1 percent of the population, French officials say more than 50 percent of all reported racist attacks in 2014 were directed against them.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3399791/Immigration-Israel-western-European-Jews-hits-time-high-following-rise-anti-Semitic-attacks.html0 -
IIRC, the number of seats is going to be cut in Cornwall, as part of devolution discussions, and as a cost saving measure?0
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3399791/Immigration-Israel-western-European-Jews-hits-time-high-following-rise-anti-Semitic-attacks.htmlMP_SE said:A truly shocking figure:
Though Jews make up less than 1 percent of the population, French officials say more than 50 percent of all reported racist attacks in 2014 were directed against them.
It's amazing all those wishing to make racist attacks are even able to find a jewish person to attack given those numbers. They can be a dedicated bunch, racist idiots.0 -
And 127 of them are Labour. (well not quite, but you get the idea). In fact Durham Unitary Council was created so Labour could get control of the West of the County.SandyRentool said:
123? That’s nothing. We've got 126 in Durham!RobD said:
Can't afford one, what with their 123-member council!SandyRentool said:Cornwall gets to have devolved powers without the imposition of an elected mayor. No such option for anywhere in the north of England.
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Interview with the world's worst Bond villain coming up on Newsnight.0
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Once the system is up and running - I recommend calling: scf /scannow from the command prompt (admin) available by right-clicking the .dugarbandier said:
made the switch last week. hardly any differenceDavidL said:Newish computer which I am switching from Windows 8.1 to Windows 10 tonight. Please assure me my life is going to get better.
It checks the files haven't been corrupted.0 -
It's amazing all those wishing to make racist attacks are even able to find a jewish person to attack given those numbers. They can be a dedicated bunch, racist idiots.kle4 said:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3399791/Immigration-Israel-western-European-Jews-hits-time-high-following-rise-anti-Semitic-attacks.htmlMP_SE said:A truly shocking figure:
Though Jews make up less than 1 percent of the population, French officials say more than 50 percent of all reported racist attacks in 2014 were directed against them.
France has the third largest Jewish population in the world apparantly. Most are (like French Muslims) of Maghrebi descent.0 -
Jesus, 94 out of 126 are Labour. 19 Independents, which probably contains a few Lab in all but name. Has to be the most for a single party in any council, even if it is not the highest proportion (there being a few 100% for one or the other - I wonder if Eastleigh Borough is still 40 out of 44 LD)weejonnie said:
And 127 of them are Labour. (well not quite, but you get the idea). In fact Durham Unitary Council was created so Labour could get control of the West of the County.SandyRentool said:
123? That’s nothing. We've got 126 in Durham!RobD said:
Can't afford one, what with their 123-member council!SandyRentool said:Cornwall gets to have devolved powers without the imposition of an elected mayor. No such option for anywhere in the north of England.
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3399791/Immigration-Israel-western-European-Jews-hits-time-high-following-rise-anti-Semitic-attacks.htmlMP_SE said:A truly shocking figure:
Though Jews make up less than 1 percent of the population, French officials say more than 50 percent of all reported racist attacks in 2014 were directed against them.
It would be interesting to know the demographic of the attackers.
Though I think we can all make a guess.
On a related note Merkel's madness has perhaps increased the number of Jew haters in Germany to its highest since the 1940s.
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I think Manchester is (or was) a 100% Labour councilkle4 said:
Jesus, 94 out of 126 are Labour. 19 Independents, which probably contains a few Lab in all but name. Has to be the most for a single party in any council, even if it is not the highest proportion (there being a few 100% for one or the other - I wonder if Eastleigh Borough is still 40 out of 44 LD)weejonnie said:
And 127 of them are Labour. (well not quite, but you get the idea). In fact Durham Unitary Council was created so Labour could get control of the West of the County.SandyRentool said:
123? That’s nothing. We've got 126 in Durham!RobD said:
Can't afford one, what with their 123-member council!SandyRentool said:Cornwall gets to have devolved powers without the imposition of an elected mayor. No such option for anywhere in the north of England.
ETA: Yes, all 96 Manchester councillors are Labour.0 -
@davieclegg: BREAKING: #sp16 poll
Holyrood Constituency:
SNP: 52%
LAB: 21%
CON: 16%
LD: 7%
Other: 4%
https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH
@davieclegg: BREAKING: #sp16 poll
Holyrood List Vote
SNP: 42%
LAB: 20%
CON: 16%
LD: 8%
Green: 9%
UKIP: 5%
Other: <1%
https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH0 -
@davieclegg: BREAKING: #sp16 poll
Seats predicted by Weber Shandwick’s Scotland Votes tool.
SNP 70
LAB 26
CON 18
GREEN 8
LD 7
https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH0 -
If it is able to be well run despite that paucity of official opposition, I salute them.Danny565 said:
I think Manchester is (or was) a 100% Labour councilkle4 said:
Jesus, 94 out of 126 are Labour. 19 Independents, which probably contains a few Lab in all but name. Has to be the most for a single party in any council, even if it is not the highest proportion (there being a few 100% for one or the other - I wonder if Eastleigh Borough is still 40 out of 44 LD)weejonnie said:
And 127 of them are Labour. (well not quite, but you get the idea). In fact Durham Unitary Council was created so Labour could get control of the West of the County.SandyRentool said:
123? That’s nothing. We've got 126 in Durham!RobD said:
Can't afford one, what with their 123-member council!SandyRentool said:Cornwall gets to have devolved powers without the imposition of an elected mayor. No such option for anywhere in the north of England.
ETA: Yes, all 96 Manchester councillors are Labour.0 -
FPT Danny:
" The two Wirral seats are the best examples of the Tories' Northern problem. Nice houses (some VERY nice) everywhere, no universities anywhere or especially high numbers of trendy 20-somethings, barely a non-white face to be seen.
Both Labour in 2015. "
And both on Merseyside.
Merseyside =/= North.
By way of comparison take a look at Ed Balls exMP to see formerly safe Labour areas in the North trending Conservative (or rightwards generally).
Northern England has much the same electoral trends as the rest of the country:
Public sector middle class -> leftwards
Private sector working class -> rightwards
Cities -> leftwards
Towns -> rightwards
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Had a request from Durham Council on whether the North East should accept the devolved powers (and a Mayor) offered to the North East by the Government.
Since the additional powers will be exercised in perpetuity by the raving Corbynistas, I have politely declined the offer.0 -
On those figures that gives SNP 70 (+1), Labour 26(-11), Tory 18(+3), LD 7%(+2), Green 8(+6)Scott_P said:@davieclegg: BREAKING: #sp16 poll
Holyrood Constituency:
SNP: 52%
LAB: 21%
CON: 16%
LD: 7%
Other: 4%
https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH
@davieclegg: BREAKING: #sp16 poll
Holyrood List Vote
SNP: 42%
LAB: 20%
CON: 16%
LD: 8%
Green: 9%
UKIP: 5%
Other: <1%
https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH</p>
Should Scotland be independent? No 51% Yes 49%
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/snp-course-increase-holyrood-majority-71827130 -
LD Surge!HYUFD said:
On those figures that gives SNP 70 (+1), Labour 26(-11), Tory 18%(+3%), LD 7%(+2%), Green 8%(+6%)Scott_P said:@davieclegg: BREAKING: #sp16 poll
Holyrood Constituency:
SNP: 52%
LAB: 21%
CON: 16%
LD: 7%
Other: 4%
https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH
@davieclegg: BREAKING: #sp16 poll
Holyrood List Vote
SNP: 42%
LAB: 20%
CON: 16%
LD: 8%
Green: 9%
UKIP: 5%
Other: <1%
https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH</p>
Should Scotland be independent? No 51% Yes 49%
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/snp-course-increase-holyrood-majority-7182713
In all seriousness, does that mean they are polling more in Scotland than nationally? Definitely not sure that can be trusted.0 -
France has the third largest Jewish population in the world apparantly. Most are (like French Muslims) of Maghrebi descent.foxinsoxuk said:
It's amazing all those wishing to make racist attacks are even able to find a jewish person to attack given those numbers. They can be a dedicated bunch, racist idiots.kle4 said:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3399791/Immigration-Israel-western-European-Jews-hits-time-high-following-rise-anti-Semitic-attacks.htmlMP_SE said:A truly shocking figure:
Though Jews make up less than 1 percent of the population, French officials say more than 50 percent of all reported racist attacks in 2014 were directed against them.
Today is the annivesary of the Casablanca Conference in 1943, attended by Churchill, FDR, de Gaulle and Giraud.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casablanca_Conference
During the Conference, Roosevelt spoke with the French resident general at Rabat, Morocco, about postwar independence and Jewish immigrants in North Africa. Roosevelt proposed that:
"[t]he number of Jews engaged in the practice of the professions (law, medicine, etc.) should be definitely limited to the percentage that the Jewish population in North Africa bears to the whole of the North African population.... [T]his plan would further eliminate the specific and understandable complaints which the Germans bore towards the Jews in Germany, namely, that while they represented a small part of the population, over 50 percent of the lawyers, doctors, schoolteachers, college professors, etc., in Germany were Jews."[13][14]
This disposition of the Jewish population harkened back to a mindset communicated in earlier years to Roosevelt by the American ambassador to Germany, William Dodd (1933–37). Dodd had appraised Germany's repression of Jews, and writing to Roosevelt, he said: "The Jews had held a great many more of the key positions in Germany than their number or talents entitled them to."[15]0 -
I suspect that how well run councils are depends more on their officials than their councillors.kle4 said:
If it is able to be well run despite that paucity of official opposition, I salute them.Danny565 said:
I think Manchester is (or was) a 100% Labour councilkle4 said:
Jesus, 94 out of 126 are Labour. 19 Independents, which probably contains a few Lab in all but name. Has to be the most for a single party in any council, even if it is not the highest proportion (there being a few 100% for one or the other - I wonder if Eastleigh Borough is still 40 out of 44 LD)weejonnie said:
And 127 of them are Labour. (well not quite, but you get the idea). In fact Durham Unitary Council was created so Labour could get control of the West of the County.SandyRentool said:
123? That’s nothing. We've got 126 in Durham!RobD said:
Can't afford one, what with their 123-member council!SandyRentool said:Cornwall gets to have devolved powers without the imposition of an elected mayor. No such option for anywhere in the north of England.
ETA: Yes, all 96 Manchester councillors are Labour.
And more than either on luck.
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Is that being called 'Newcastle City Region' or some such ?weejonnie said:Had a request from Durham Council on whether the North East should accept the devolved powers (and a Mayor) offered to the North East by the Government.
Since the additional powers will be exercised in perpetuity by the raving Corbynistas, I have politely declined the offer.
If so I can imagine the reaction in Sunderland.
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Ken Livingstone isn't on again!!!!!!!!!!??????????????????????Danny565 said:Interview with the world's worst Bond villain coming up on Newsnight.
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Probably, but effectiveness of political leadership in providing direction and scrutiny is a factor, and depending on how the other factors stack up, possible the factor that is easiest to tip the balance and alter.another_richard said:
I suspect that how well run councils are depends more on their officials than their councillors.kle4 said:
If it is able to be well run despite that paucity of official opposition, I salute them.Danny565 said:
I think Manchester is (or was) a 100% Labour councilkle4 said:
Jesus, 94 out of 126 are Labour. 19 Independents, which probably contains a few Lab in all but name. Has to be the most for a single party in any council, even if it is not the highest proportion (there being a few 100% for one or the other - I wonder if Eastleigh Borough is still 40 out of 44 LD)weejonnie said:
And 127 of them are Labour. (well not quite, but you get the idea). In fact Durham Unitary Council was created so Labour could get control of the West of the County.SandyRentool said:
123? That’s nothing. We've got 126 in Durham!RobD said:
Can't afford one, what with their 123-member council!SandyRentool said:Cornwall gets to have devolved powers without the imposition of an elected mayor. No such option for anywhere in the north of England.
ETA: Yes, all 96 Manchester councillors are Labour.
And more than either on luck.0 -
Sadly not.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Ken Livingstone isn't on again!!!!!!!!!!??????????????????????Danny565 said:Interview with the world's worst Bond villain coming up on Newsnight.
I'm sure there's someone in the world with a less aurally-pleasing voice than George Osborne, but I'm yet to discover it.0 -
NBC/WSJ GOP national
Trump 33%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 13%
Carson 12%
Bush 5%
http://www.scribd.com/doc/295502565/NBC-WSJ-January-Poll0 -
Today is the annivesary of the Casablanca Conference in 1943, attended by Churchill, FDR, de Gaulle and Giraud.Sunil_Prasannan said:
France has the third largest Jewish population in the world apparantly. Most are (like French Muslims) of Maghrebi descent.foxinsoxuk said:
It's amazing all those wishing to make racist attacks are even able to find a jewish person to attack given those numbers. They can be a dedicated bunch, racist idiots.kle4 said:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3399791/Immigration-Israel-western-European-Jews-hits-time-high-following-rise-anti-Semitic-attacks.htmlMP_SE said:A truly shocking figure:
Though Jews make up less than 1 percent of the population, French officials say more than 50 percent of all reported racist attacks in 2014 were directed against them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casablanca_Conference
During the Conference, Roosevelt spoke with the French resident general at Rabat, Morocco, about postwar independence and Jewish immigrants in North Africa. Roosevelt proposed that:
"[t]he number of Jews engaged in the practice of the professions (law, medicine, etc.) should be definitely limited to the percentage that the Jewish population in North Africa bears to the whole of the North African population.... [T]his plan would further eliminate the specific and understandable complaints which the Germans bore towards the Jews in Germany, namely, that while they represented a small part of the population, over 50 percent of the lawyers, doctors, schoolteachers, college professors, etc., in Germany were Jews."[13][14]
This disposition of the Jewish population harkened back to a mindset communicated in earlier years to Roosevelt by the American ambassador to Germany, William Dodd (1933–37). Dodd had appraised Germany's repression of Jews, and writing to Roosevelt, he said: "The Jews had held a great many more of the key positions in Germany than their number or talents entitled them to."[15]
Dear me.
I wonder how many Jewish Democrat voters knew about that.
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Gilbert Gottfried?Danny565 said:
Sadly not.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Ken Livingstone isn't on again!!!!!!!!!!??????????????????????Danny565 said:Interview with the world's worst Bond villain coming up on Newsnight.
I'm sure there's someone in the world with a less aurally-pleasing voice than George Osborne, but I'm yet to discover it.0 -
Osborne very vague about the EC in the gentle Evan Newsnight interview. Many signs that he/they have not thought it all through. Weak in answers - maybe due to him spreading himself too thin across too many responsibilities?0
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Diane 'whispering death' Abbottkle4 said:
Gilbert Gottfried?Danny565 said:
Sadly not.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Ken Livingstone isn't on again!!!!!!!!!!??????????????????????Danny565 said:Interview with the world's worst Bond villain coming up on Newsnight.
I'm sure there's someone in the world with a less aurally-pleasing voice than George Osborne, but I'm yet to discover it.0 -
Interesting that Osborne was repeating a lot of the disingenuous stuff we have been reading on here from certain posters in recent weeks though.0
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Bugger,runnymede said:Interesting that Osborne was repeating a lot of the disingenuous stuff we have been reading on here from certain posters in recent weeks though.
#rumbled.0 -
You wouldn't be referring to the 'undecided' people would you ?runnymede said:Interesting that Osborne was repeating a lot of the disingenuous stuff we have been reading on here from certain posters in recent weeks though.
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BBCQT seems to be upsetting all of the right people tonight0
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Or maybe due to not wanting to come out completely one way or another for multiple sensible reasons until the negotiations are over.TCPoliticalBetting said:Osborne very vague about the EC in the gentle Evan Newsnight interview. Many signs that he/they have not thought it all through. Weak in answers - maybe due to him spreading himself too thin across too many responsibilities?
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Windows 10 is much better than windows 8, though essentially very similar. You essentially have two operating systems running together, the traditional windows desktop and the modern apps. In windows 8, it was like a clunky gear change moving between traditional programs and apps, as your full screen would be taken over by an app as you get thrown out of the safety blanket of a desktop. The interactive experience was very different. While not intrinsically bad, it meant that windows 8 as a whole was a dogs dinner, despite some massive improvements in how windows worked.DavidL said:
Thank you. I prefer your answer to the others. Bit like finding a doctor that tells you what you want to hear (woops).foxinsoxuk said:
Windows 10 is much much better. 8.1 was dire.DavidL said:Newish computer which I am switching from Windows 8.1 to Windows 10 tonight. Please assure me my life is going to get better.
To be honest I am not entirely sure if it has worked or not.
Roll on windows 10, they bring back the start menu, but inexplicably make it virtually useless. Not sure how they managed it. It is years behind even the windows XP start menu, never mind the more sophisticated windows vista and 7.
The good thing about windows 10 though, is now as a user there is no real difference between a modern 'app' and a desktop programme. You interact with them in the same way, making the user experience much better.
The only real thing you need to do to turn windows 10 into a much more functional machine is install classic shell from classicshell dot net and after installing click on the flag in bottom left hand corner and choose the style of start menu you want. After than Windows 10 becomes pretty much a better version of 7.0 -
I think feedback loops might play a part here.kle4 said:
Probably, but effectiveness of political leadership in providing direction and scrutiny is a factor, and depending on how the other factors stack up, possible the factor that is easiest to tip the balance and alter.another_richard said:
I suspect that how well run councils are depends more on their officials than their councillors.kle4 said:
If it is able to be well run despite that paucity of official opposition, I salute them.Danny565 said:
I think Manchester is (or was) a 100% Labour councilkle4 said:
Jesus, 94 out of 126 are Labour. 19 Independents, which probably contains a few Lab in all but name. Has to be the most for a single party in any council, even if it is not the highest proportion (there being a few 100% for one or the other - I wonder if Eastleigh Borough is still 40 out of 44 LD)weejonnie said:
And 127 of them are Labour. (well not quite, but you get the idea). In fact Durham Unitary Council was created so Labour could get control of the West of the County.SandyRentool said:
123? That’s nothing. We've got 126 in Durham!RobD said:
Can't afford one, what with their 123-member council!SandyRentool said:Cornwall gets to have devolved powers without the imposition of an elected mayor. No such option for anywhere in the north of England.
ETA: Yes, all 96 Manchester councillors are Labour.
And more than either on luck.
Once leadership becomes rotten its very difficult to reform.
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Country as a whole:another_richard said:FPT Danny:
" The two Wirral seats are the best examples of the Tories' Northern problem. Nice houses (some VERY nice) everywhere, no universities anywhere or especially high numbers of trendy 20-somethings, barely a non-white face to be seen.
Both Labour in 2015. "
And both on Merseyside.
Merseyside =/= North.
By way of comparison take a look at Ed Balls exMP to see formerly safe Labour areas in the North trending Conservative (or rightwards generally).
Northern England has much the same electoral trends as the rest of the country:
Public sector middle class -> leftwards
Private sector working class -> rightwards
Cities -> leftwards
Towns -> rightwards
Public sector -> Private sector.
Good news for the Tories as well as the economy.0 -
Newsnight report on the polling disaster with Matt Singh.0
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Seems that the only people in QT who are not junior doctors are the panel....0
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Cruz is flying out the door. Bad poll out for him ?0
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Tom Baldwin blaming the polls for losing the election.
AWESOME!0 -
According to him, if the polls had shown the Tories close to winning a majority, more people would have decided not to vote Tory to stop them winning a majority. Sounds like a circular argument if ever there was one, requiring incredible mental contortions.Scott_P said:Tom Baldwin blaming the polls for losing the election.
AWESOME!0 -
Ties in well with the occasionally offered 'people didn't realise what they were voting for' by voting in the Tories (and ignoring that Labour told everyone what voting Tory would mean), which Corbyn has stated at least once, by suggesting people really didn't realise voting Tory would lead to Tory government, as polls assured them they could risk it and still be rewarded with an SNP-Lab pact.AndyJS said:
According to him, if the polls had shown the Tories close to winning a majority, more people would have decided not to vote Tory to stop them winning a majority. Sounds like a circular argument if ever there was one, requiring incredible mental contortions.Scott_P said:Tom Baldwin blaming the polls for losing the election.
AWESOME!0 -
BREAKINGScott_P said:@davieclegg: BREAKING: #sp16 poll
Holyrood Constituency:
SNP: 52%
LAB: 21%
CON: 16%
LD: 7%
Other: 4%
https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH
@davieclegg: BREAKING: #sp16 poll
Holyrood List Vote
SNP: 42%
LAB: 20%
CON: 16%
LD: 8%
Green: 9%
UKIP: 5%
Other: <1%
https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH</p>
Wee SCon hearts.0 -
While others would have voted Conservative only because they thought it was the only way to stop a Lab-SNP pact.kle4 said:
Ties in well with the occasionally offered 'people didn't realise what they were voting for' by voting in the Tories (and ignoring that Labour told everyone what voting Tory would mean), which Corbyn has stated at least once, by suggesting people really didn't realise voting Tory would lead to Tory government, as polls assured them they could risk it and still be rewarded with an SNP-Lab pact.AndyJS said:
According to him, if the polls had shown the Tories close to winning a majority, more people would have decided not to vote Tory to stop them winning a majority. Sounds like a circular argument if ever there was one, requiring incredible mental contortions.Scott_P said:Tom Baldwin blaming the polls for losing the election.
AWESOME!
If the Lab-SNP pact had been thought much more unlikely then you would have had fewer 'fear factor' Conservative votes and a few more Labour, LibDem and UKIP MPs and a minority Conservative government.
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Can't the SNP loan them 4-5% They'll still be in control, or close enough, and the SLAB panic would be something to see.Theuniondivvie said:
BREAKINGScott_P said:@davieclegg: BREAKING: #sp16 poll
Holyrood Constituency:
SNP: 52%
LAB: 21%
CON: 16%
LD: 7%
Other: 4%
https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH
@davieclegg: BREAKING: #sp16 poll
Holyrood List Vote
SNP: 42%
LAB: 20%
CON: 16%
LD: 8%
Green: 9%
UKIP: 5%
Other: <1%
https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH</p>
Wee SCon hearts.0 -
The bloody 'peace' argument about the EU. It's so broken.0
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Osborne will make soft eurosceptic noises in an attempt to make his decision to back the remain campaign look like it was a difficult one.runnymede said:Interesting that Osborne was repeating a lot of the disingenuous stuff we have been reading on here from certain posters in recent weeks though.
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Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.0
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She is horrible, if this is all Labour have to offer they are in more trouble than we thought.watford30 said:Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.
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A teenager trapped in the body of a gurning Corbynista. Very good at pulling faces, huffing and rolling her eyes - is she a friend of Abbott?nigel4england said:
She is horrible, if this is all Labour have to offer they are in more trouble than we thought.watford30 said:Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.
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Like watching a sixth form debate, pathetic. Getting owned by Kelvin Mckenzie is a real low.watford30 said:
Gurning Corbynista. Very good at pulling faces, huffing and rolling her eyes - is she a friend of Abbott?nigel4england said:
She is horrible, if this is all Labour have to offer they are in more trouble than we thought.watford30 said:Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.
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Tell MikeK the good news dow up 200+. Should cheer him up!0
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Born in Barrow, degree from Lancaster, MP for Lancaster.watford30 said:Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.
In what sense is she "Metropolitan elite"?
While the ex-public schoolboy, City trader turned professional politician Nigel Farage is the authentic view of the Northern working class? Colour me a little unconvinced...0 -
I would've thought Kippers loved Kelvinnigel4england said:
Like watching a sixth form debate, pathetic. Getting owned by Kelvin Mckenzie is a real low.watford30 said:
Gurning Corbynista. Very good at pulling faces, huffing and rolling her eyes - is she a friend of Abbott?nigel4england said:
She is horrible, if this is all Labour have to offer they are in more trouble than we thought.watford30 said:Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.
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Theuniondivvie said:
BREAKINGScott_P said:@davieclegg: BREAKING: #sp16 poll
Holyrood Constituency:
SNP: 52%
LAB: 21%
CON: 16%
LD: 7%
Other: 4%
https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH
@davieclegg: BREAKING: #sp16 poll
Holyrood List Vote
SNP: 42%
LAB: 20%
CON: 16%
LD: 8%
Green: 9%
UKIP: 5%
Other: <1%
https://t.co/6N9qW15AFH</p>
Wee SCon hearts.
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Not keen though he does talk common sense at times, never forgive him for Hillsborough though.Danny565 said:
I would've thought Kippers loved Kelvinnigel4england said:
Like watching a sixth form debate, pathetic. Getting owned by Kelvin Mckenzie is a real low.watford30 said:
Gurning Corbynista. Very good at pulling faces, huffing and rolling her eyes - is she a friend of Abbott?nigel4england said:
She is horrible, if this is all Labour have to offer they are in more trouble than we thought.watford30 said:Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.
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Only 1 in four of the plods who apply to join the armed teams in the Met are deemed suitable. These are the ones capable of filling in the forms, so perish the thought of giving them all guns.
Many of those already 'tooled up' have terrible weapons handling skills, fingers on triggers, barrels pointing here there and everywhere, as they pootle about in public spaces.0 -
Metropolitan in terms of her student politics, bleeding heart idiot.foxinsoxuk said:
Born in Barrow, degree from Lancaster, MP for Lancaster.watford30 said:Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.
In what sense is she "Metropolitan elite"?
While the ex-public schoolboy, City trader turned professional politician Nigel Farage is the authentic view of the Northern working class? Colour me a little unconvinced...
Much as I disagree with Farage and they way he performed in the debates, Ukip are much more relevant to the Northern working class than Labour ever will be again.0 -
@watford30
'Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.'
Student union rent-a-gob.
Guess there are very few Labour MP's that want to go on TV and be associated with Corbyn therefore you have to scrape the barrel & end up with Smith.0 -
I wondered that myself, but Oldham (And the GE) seemed to put paid to that idea..nigel4england said:
Metropolitan in terms of her student politics, bleeding heart idiot.foxinsoxuk said:
Born in Barrow, degree from Lancaster, MP for Lancaster.watford30 said:Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.
In what sense is she "Metropolitan elite"?
While the ex-public schoolboy, City trader turned professional politician Nigel Farage is the authentic view of the Northern working class? Colour me a little unconvinced...
Much as I disagree with Farage and they way he performed in the debates, Ukip are much more relevant to the Northern working class than Labour and will ever be again.0 -
I assume the point was that she holds the same opinions as the "Metropolitan elite".foxinsoxuk said:
Born in Barrow, degree from Lancaster, MP for Lancaster.watford30 said:Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.
In what sense is she "Metropolitan elite"?
While the ex-public schoolboy, City trader turned professional politician Nigel Farage is the authentic view of the Northern working class? Colour me a little unconvinced...0 -
So some sort of philosophical "Metropolitan Elite" that comes from a modest background in an obscure part of Northern England, but fits your stereotype?nigel4england said:
Metropolitan in terms of her student politics, bleeding heart idiot.foxinsoxuk said:
Born in Barrow, degree from Lancaster, MP for Lancaster.watford30 said:Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.
In what sense is she "Metropolitan elite"?
While the ex-public schoolboy, City trader turned professional politician Nigel Farage is the authentic view of the Northern working class? Colour me a little unconvinced...
Much as I disagree with Farage and they way he performed in the debates, Ukip are much more relevant to the Northern working class than Labour and will ever be again.
Would she be more authentically Northern if she brought her whippet and snap-box of black pudding to QT?0 -
By the time Oldham came round Ukip were on the slide, they took tens of thousands of votes from the WWC at the GE though.Pulpstar said:
I wondered that myself, but Oldham (And the GE) seemed to put paid to that idea..nigel4england said:
Metropolitan in terms of her student politics, bleeding heart idiot.foxinsoxuk said:
Born in Barrow, degree from Lancaster, MP for Lancaster.watford30 said:Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.
In what sense is she "Metropolitan elite"?
While the ex-public schoolboy, City trader turned professional politician Nigel Farage is the authentic view of the Northern working class? Colour me a little unconvinced...
Much as I disagree with Farage and they way he performed in the debates, Ukip are much more relevant to the Northern working class than Labour and will ever be again.0 -
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Interesting fact is that UKIP managed to beat the Greens in Islington South & Finsbury, even if it was by only 4 votes.Scott_P said:
She's a paid up Corbynista.AndyJS said:I assume the point was that she holds the same opinions as the "Metropolitan elite".
That means she represents the views of all parts of Islington.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140007640 -
No, she would be more representative of the working class she keeps banging on about if she didn't support policies that constantly undermine them.foxinsoxuk said:
So some sort of philosophical "Metropolitan Elite" that comes from a modest background in an obscure part of Northern England, but fits your stereotype?nigel4england said:
Metropolitan in terms of her student politics, bleeding heart idiot.foxinsoxuk said:
Born in Barrow, degree from Lancaster, MP for Lancaster.watford30 said:Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.
In what sense is she "Metropolitan elite"?
While the ex-public schoolboy, City trader turned professional politician Nigel Farage is the authentic view of the Northern working class? Colour me a little unconvinced...
Much as I disagree with Farage and they way he performed in the debates, Ukip are much more relevant to the Northern working class than Labour and will ever be again.
Would she be more authentically Northern if she brought her whippet and snap-box of black pudding to QT?
Reference Bob Crow.0 -
Because no proper working class person cares about anything other than bloody immigrants?nigel4england said:
No, she would be more representative of the working class she keeps banging on about if she didn't support policies that constantly undermine them.foxinsoxuk said:
So some sort of philosophical "Metropolitan Elite" that comes from a modest background in an obscure part of Northern England, but fits your stereotype?nigel4england said:
Metropolitan in terms of her student politics, bleeding heart idiot.foxinsoxuk said:
Born in Barrow, degree from Lancaster, MP for Lancaster.watford30 said:Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.
In what sense is she "Metropolitan elite"?
While the ex-public schoolboy, City trader turned professional politician Nigel Farage is the authentic view of the Northern working class? Colour me a little unconvinced...
Much as I disagree with Farage and they way he performed in the debates, Ukip are much more relevant to the Northern working class than Labour and will ever be again.
Would she be more authentically Northern if she brought her whippet and snap-box of black pudding to QT?
Reference Bob Crow.0 -
Portillo says he thinks that if the result of the referendum is a Leave win, we won't actually leave the EU. Nice to know he rates democracy so highly.0
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Oh good, Jess Phillips and her Brummie accent on This Week.0
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If only UKIP had put up isam...AndyJS said:
Interesting fact is that UKIP managed to beat the Greens in Islington South & Finsbury, even if it was by only 4 votes.Scott_P said:
She's a paid up Corbynista.AndyJS said:I assume the point was that she holds the same opinions as the "Metropolitan elite".
That means she represents the views of all parts of Islington.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E140007640 -
What are her views on women's rights and homophobia?foxinsoxuk said:0 -
They care about their job prospects, their wages that are suppressed, social housing, schools for their kids etc. Are they wrong?foxinsoxuk said:
Because no proper working class person cares about anything other than bloody immigrants?nigel4england said:
No, she would be more representative of the working class she keeps banging on about if she didn't support policies that constantly undermine them.foxinsoxuk said:
So some sort of philosophical "Metropolitan Elite" that comes from a modest background in an obscure part of Northern England, but fits your stereotype?nigel4england said:
Metropolitan in terms of her student politics, bleeding heart idiot.foxinsoxuk said:
Born in Barrow, degree from Lancaster, MP for Lancaster.watford30 said:Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.
In what sense is she "Metropolitan elite"?
While the ex-public schoolboy, City trader turned professional politician Nigel Farage is the authentic view of the Northern working class? Colour me a little unconvinced...
Much as I disagree with Farage and they way he performed in the debates, Ukip are much more relevant to the Northern working class than Labour and will ever be again.
Would she be more authentically Northern if she brought her whippet and snap-box of black pudding to QT?
Reference Bob Crow.0 -
I suspect that she is in favour of the first and against the second.nigel4england said:
What are her views on women's rights and homophobia?foxinsoxuk said:
I suspect that she is not "socially conservative" enough to be against the first and in favour of the second.
After all there are no working class women or gays!
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It's not a where you come from, it's where you are now. applies to both sides.foxinsoxuk said:
So some sort of philosophical "Metropolitan Elite" that comes from a modest background in an obscure part of Northern England, but fits your stereotype?nigel4england said:
Metropolitan in terms of her student politics, bleeding heart idiot.foxinsoxuk said:
Born in Barrow, degree from Lancaster, MP for Lancaster.watford30 said:Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.
In what sense is she "Metropolitan elite"?
While the ex-public schoolboy, City trader turned professional politician Nigel Farage is the authentic view of the Northern working class? Colour me a little unconvinced...
Much as I disagree with Farage and they way he performed in the debates, Ukip are much more relevant to the Northern working class than Labour and will ever be again.
Would she be more authentically Northern if she brought her whippet and snap-box of black pudding to QT?
Good night.0 -
Why doesn't she campaign for them then, or is she worried it would cost Labout votes in places like Oldham?foxinsoxuk said:
I suspect that she is in favour of the first and against the second.nigel4england said:
What are her views on women's rights and homophobia?foxinsoxuk said:
I suspect that she is not "socially conservative" enough to be against the first and in favour of the second.
After all there are no working class women or gays!0 -
So all MPs are defined as "Metropolitan Elite" because they all work in London? Its a rather circular definition surely?kle4 said:
It's not a where you come from, it's where you are now. applies to both sides.foxinsoxuk said:
So some sort of philosophical "Metropolitan Elite" that comes from a modest background in an obscure part of Northern England, but fits your stereotype?nigel4england said:
Metropolitan in terms of her student politics, bleeding heart idiot.foxinsoxuk said:
Born in Barrow, degree from Lancaster, MP for Lancaster.watford30 said:Shrieking Cat Smith, clueless Metropolitan elite.
In what sense is she "Metropolitan elite"?
While the ex-public schoolboy, City trader turned professional politician Nigel Farage is the authentic view of the Northern working class? Colour me a little unconvinced...
Much as I disagree with Farage and they way he performed in the debates, Ukip are much more relevant to the Northern working class than Labour and will ever be again.
Would she be more authentically Northern if she brought her whippet and snap-box of black pudding to QT?
Good night.
And of course by the same token Farage is part of the "Brussels Elite"...0 -
Launceston is Lib Dem hold
LD 515 Con 226 Green 65 CPA 12
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I think she does! And it seems so do they, after all they did vote her in just a few months ago.nigel4england said:
Why doesn't she campaign for them then, or is she worried it would cost Labout votes in places like Oldham?foxinsoxuk said:
I suspect that she is in favour of the first and against the second.nigel4england said:
What are her views on women's rights and homophobia?foxinsoxuk said:
I suspect that she is not "socially conservative" enough to be against the first and in favour of the second.
After all there are no working class women or gays!
Meanwhile UKIP elected one semi-detached MP.0
This discussion has been closed.