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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tissue Price on Osborne’s leadership ambitions and his EURe

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited January 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tissue Price on Osborne’s leadership ambitions and his EURef problem

But the folk wisdom on backing the next Tory leader is that the favourite never wins. That the winner is more about who he isn’t, than who he is. You have to go all the way back to Eden to find a clear case of the long-term favourite succeeding, and that’s despite several changes to the method of election since then.

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Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    edited January 2016
    Thirst?

    Thanks, Mr Price. Although I still wonder if Osborne actually wants the job - and whether all of this talk is to direct fire away from other candidates.

    IMO he's much more likely to want to be the power behind the throne.

    But I'm probably wrong. As usual ...
  • Quenched. Watch Hammond...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    Good piece, if Leave wins then Osborne is a goner. In fact his career dies with Dave's.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    edited January 2016
    Lay the favourite. Lay the second favourite too (the member for Uxbridge).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    Somewhat importantly, do we know how well (or not) Osborne gets on with the journalists and editors of right-wing papers and websites?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    Did a straw poll of people in my office (financial services) and it is about 40% remain, 30% leave, 30% undecided/refused. I think a few years ago if someone had said the City would be a close race then they would have been laughed out of the room. The EU (and Dave, by way of not negotiating for a FinReg veto) seems determined to push the City away from remain with poor regulation and arbitrary rules intended to harm the industry. Poll taken from Wed-Fri last week, 38 people asked!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    But then again if Remain wins, Tories like me will want a strong sceptic as leader.

    Don't see Ozzy in that space myself. He's no pushover, but he's not a natural BOOer.
    MaxPB said:

    Good piece, if Leave wins then Osborne is a goner. In fact his career dies with Dave's.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    GO has no chance either way - just not going to happen.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    TGOHF said:

    GO has no chance either way - just not going to happen.

    Tear up your Khan betslips !
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    edited January 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Good piece, if Leave wins then Osborne is a goner. In fact his career dies with Dave's.

    I think that's the way it should be. The PM and CoE are an integral team and should be regarded as a unit. They both develop strategy and guide the country through their vision. When one goes, they both should - barring scandal of course.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    GO has no chance either way - just not going to happen.

    Tear up your Khan betslips !
    He's not winning either.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Lolololol http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/09/jeremy-corbyn-on-middle-britain-labour-beating-the-tories
    Which is exactly what we will do. For all the media sound and fury, last week’s shadow cabinet reshuffle has made us a stronger, more diverse and more coherent leadership team.
  • Good piece from Tissue Price, as one would expect.

    Osborne is rightly favourite, of course, but whether the current odds represent value is a bit less clear to me. The key sentence in TP's piece is this one:

    Turning to the mechanics of the election, it seems pretty clear that Osborne already has the MP nominations in the bag. He might even have enough nominations to (in theory) “choose his own opponent”

    Who is that opponent going to be, and will he or she get into the final because of merit as the best anti-Osborne candidate, or because Osborne will have engineered a less-than-overwhelming alternative?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939

    Good piece from Tissue Price, as one would expect.

    Osborne is rightly favourite, of course, but whether the current odds represent value is a bit less clear to me. The key sentence in TP's piece is this one:

    Turning to the mechanics of the election, it seems pretty clear that Osborne already has the MP nominations in the bag. He might even have enough nominations to (in theory) “choose his own opponent”

    Who is that opponent going to be, and will he or she get into the final because of merit as the best anti-Osborne candidate, or because Osborne will have engineered a less-than-overwhelming alternative?

    The Tories elected the "not Ken" candidate; they could just as easily elect the "not Ozzy" offering, even if they don't look like a winner.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Thanks @Tissue_Price. Very good analysis of the George Question.

    I think one has to treat leadership elections in government as almost entirely different animals from those in opposition. That's especially true if the governing party is in good nick which is very rare, as you say (and might not end up being the case here).

    I also think that whether Osborne can pick his run-off opponent may be decisive. As I've said a few times, Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    FPT: thanks @RodCrosby for the Art Tatum track. Lifted my spirits for the afternoon.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.

    I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.
  • Excellent piece by Tissue Price, one that I largely agree with as our portfolio on this market is similar.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    rcs1000 said:
    I don't think they are going to put it on sale for less than $799.

    Did you try PSVR at CES? I think it is probably the worst of the three on a technical level (though that's only because the other two are just very, very good and PSVR is just very good) but I've heard from multiple people that $399 is the likely price point with one Move and the PS Camera, plus there will eventually be a solo headset without other stuff for less money. If it is anywhere near $399/£349 vs whatever OR and HTC do, the market is likely going to be heading towards console players for a long time.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Absolutely. @Tissue_Price has nailed it and this is the key issue.
    Wanderer said:

    Thanks @Tissue_Price. Very good analysis of the George Question.

    I think one has to treat leadership elections in government as almost entirely different animals from those in opposition. That's especially true if the governing party is in good nick which is very rare, as you say (and might not end up being the case here).

    I also think that whether Osborne can pick his run-off opponent may be decisive. As I've said a few times, Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.

  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Good piece from Tissue Price, as one would expect.

    Osborne is rightly favourite, of course, but whether the current odds represent value is a bit less clear to me. The key sentence in TP's piece is this one:

    Turning to the mechanics of the election, it seems pretty clear that Osborne already has the MP nominations in the bag. He might even have enough nominations to (in theory) “choose his own opponent”

    Who is that opponent going to be, and will he or she get into the final because of merit as the best anti-Osborne candidate, or because Osborne will have engineered a less-than-overwhelming alternative?

    Good question. To state the obvious, it's got to be someone who's standing and it's possible to imagine a post-Remain field (I think - please correct me) like:

    Osborne
    May
    Boris
    Hammond
    Fox (I'm assuming the Eurosceptic right will have a candidate whatever happens in the referendum.)

    It seems to me that Osborne would prefer Fox in such a case?

    Post-Leave I don't think it applies does it? Osborne wouldn't control so many votes in that situation and would have to look to his own chances, not picking his opponent.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited January 2016
    Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.

    {Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    George Galloway "If someone proposed a role in Scotland which satisfied me and Labour I would definitely look at it" https://t.co/XtiUHGImfM
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited January 2016

    The Tories elected the "not Ken" candidate; they could just as easily elect the "not Ozzy" offering, even if they don't look like a winner.

    Not comparable, I think.

    I wasn't a party member at the time, but I remember having a conversation with a good friend who was a prominent local councillor and a dyed-in-the-wool Conservative - she'd been PA to one of the Tory grandees. I asked her what on earth the party was doing choosing the unelectable IDS over Ken Clarke; her response was to say that there was no choice, the party would have split in two if Clarke had been selected. Party members knew exactly what they were doing, and in retrospect they were right. In any case Blair was invincible at the time, so electability was academic anyway.

    This time it will be different (assuming a Remain vote, of course). Party unity won't be an issue, and those who prefer someone else to Osborne would accept Osborne all the same. If the alternative looks like no more of a winner than Osborne, they'll go for Osborne.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    taffys said:

    Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.

    I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.

    He appeals to me somewhat. So that's one vote, now, about the rest....
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    Good piece from Tissue Price, as one would expect.

    Osborne is rightly favourite, of course, but whether the current odds represent value is a bit less clear to me. The key sentence in TP's piece is this one:

    Turning to the mechanics of the election, it seems pretty clear that Osborne already has the MP nominations in the bag. He might even have enough nominations to (in theory) “choose his own opponent”

    Who is that opponent going to be, and will he or she get into the final because of merit as the best anti-Osborne candidate, or because Osborne will have engineered a less-than-overwhelming alternative?

    The Tories elected the "not Ken" candidate; they could just as easily elect the "not Ozzy" offering, even if they don't look like a winner.
    I'm going to do precisely that. There is no way I would vote for Osborne as leader, even if it was vs IDS. :/
  • Wanderer said:

    FPT: thanks @RodCrosby for the Art Tatum track. Lifted my spirits for the afternoon.

    Yes, Art Tatum is absolutely wonderful. Also Rod mentioned Ben Webster - another goodie.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.

    {Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.

    I was of the same mind but the November statement proved otherwise. He undid a lot of the unpopular cuts because they would dent his leadership ambitions as the chancellor pushing them through.
  • MaxPB said:


    I was of the same mind but the November statement proved otherwise. He undid a lot of the unpopular cuts because they would dent his leadership ambitions as the chancellor pushing them through.

    No he didn't. He (partially) undid the change to Tax Credits because he didn't have a majority in the House to force them through.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,561
    edited January 2016
    The interesting question is who the standard-bearer of the Eurosceptic right would be? Liam Fox is pencilled in at the moment, but surely isn't credible. There surely will be such a candidate. The only other names I can think of are Owen Paterson and David Davis, hardly shining stars (and fading at that.)

    This is why I think exactly one of Sajid Javid, Theresa May and Boris Johnson will gamble on Leave. It'll put them in pole position to be that candidate should the Tory party need this, and be distinctive in what's looking like a crowded field? My instinct is that Sajid Javid won't (as per the article, it's more covering Osborne if he goes Leave) Boris will be bought off in the end - so there's a career defining moment for Theresa May coming up very quickly in my view.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    MaxPB said:

    Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.

    {Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.

    I was of the same mind but the November statement proved otherwise. He undid a lot of the unpopular cuts because they would dent his leadership ambitions as the chancellor pushing them through.
    No he had to undo them because they got voted out in the Lords. As I understand it under Universal Credit, they come in a few years down the line anyway, just in time for an election.
    Do you want to change your mind?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    MaxPB said:


    I was of the same mind but the November statement proved otherwise. He undid a lot of the unpopular cuts because they would dent his leadership ambitions as the chancellor pushing them through.

    No he didn't. He (partially) undid the change to Tax Credits because he didn't have a majority in the House to force them through.
    And cuts to the police?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Wanderer said:

    taffys said:

    Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.

    I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.

    He appeals to me somewhat. So that's one vote, now, about the rest....
    I am leaning Leave and leaning Osborne. Being a swing voter is a novel experience...

    NB On re-reading my piece it occurs to me that Macmillan might not have inherited the job as favourite to retain his position in 1959/60 - Mark Pack's database shows C/L level heading into 1957 but Labour then had substantial leads after Macmillan took over (a Suez effect, no doubt). Anyone know the prices?!
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Alex Wickham
    11:24am: Catherine McKinnell quits
    11:51am: Paul Sheriff quits as PPS
    11:56am: Corbyn says he won't address PLP...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This is a problem crying out for a decision tree.

    I might put one together myself when I have a free moment.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Andrew Sparrow
    Paul Kenny to Corbyn - (Great use of Swanee as a verb)- https://t.co/m80iUol63h https://t.co/0UZrHlBtO4
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169

    MaxPB said:


    I was of the same mind but the November statement proved otherwise. He undid a lot of the unpopular cuts because they would dent his leadership ambitions as the chancellor pushing them through.

    No he didn't. He (partially) undid the change to Tax Credits because he didn't have a majority in the House to force them through.
    He got them through the House, it was the Other Place that voted them down.

    The undoing of them in the Autumn Statement was also masterful politics, as he actually only undid half of them by leaving the reduction in the lower threshold.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    MaxPB said:

    Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.

    {Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.

    I was of the same mind but the November statement proved otherwise. He undid a lot of the unpopular cuts because they would dent his leadership ambitions as the chancellor pushing them through.
    No he had to undo them because they got voted out in the Lords. As I understand it under Universal Credit, they come in a few years down the line anyway, just in time for an election.
    Do you want to change your mind?
    Richard I have met and know is a party man, you I'm sure are just a CCHQ bot who, in the event of a government announcement that all people with the username "flightpath01" be publicly flogged, would be supportive.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited January 2016
    MaxPB said:

    And cuts to the police?

    Maybe, but given the increased terrorism risk, and the principal Conservative message of security, I'm not too surprised that there was a rethink on that. Sometimes lobbying and internal debate do produce results on the merits of the argument - not everything is a leadership bid!
  • Wanderer said:

    taffys said:

    Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.

    I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.

    He appeals to me somewhat. So that's one vote, now, about the rest....
    I am leaning Leave and leaning Osborne. Being a swing voter is a novel experience...

    NB On re-reading my piece it occurs to me that Macmillan might not have inherited the job as favourite to retain his position in 1959/60 - Mark Pack's database shows C/L level heading into 1957 but Labour then had substantial leads after Macmillan took over (a Suez effect, no doubt). Anyone know the prices?!
    I don't think there were any prices then.

    Plus the leader was elected by the magic circle, so not an appealing betting market.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    This is a problem crying out for a decision tree.

    I might put one together myself when I have a free moment.

    I contemplated writing the thread as such!

    There is certainly a counterintuitive case to be made (as Plato hints) that the next leader should come from the losing side of the referendum, in the interests of reconciliation.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676
    edited January 2016
    taffys said:

    Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.

    I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.

    he looked genuinely unworldly, as in not from this planet, during PMQs last week. I can't imagine anyone warming to him, if this is any kind of factor or requirement in PM desirability.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited January 2016
    Interesting betting article from TP. Halfon is a wasted bet. Very damaged goods. Hunt also looks to be damaged goods. Javid has no presence. The way for May to win is if she declares for Leave and does it at the first opportunity.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    MaxPB said:

    And cuts to the police?

    Maybe, but given the increased terrorism risk, and the principal Conservative message of security, I'm not too surprised that there was a rethink on that. Sometimes lobbying and internal debate do produce results on the merits of the argument - not everything is a leadership bid!
    Then surely reversing cuts to the armed forces would be a priority, yet we are still cutting down on active infantry.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,895
    MaxPB said:

    Did a straw poll of people in my office (financial services) and it is about 40% remain, 30% leave, 30% undecided/refused. I think a few years ago if someone had said the City would be a close race then they would have been laughed out of the room. The EU (and Dave, by way of not negotiating for a FinReg veto) seems determined to push the City away from remain with poor regulation and arbitrary rules intended to harm the industry. Poll taken from Wed-Fri last week, 38 people asked!

    Voodoo poll, 38 people - did any know your views?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Wanderer said:

    taffys said:

    Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.

    I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.

    He appeals to me somewhat. So that's one vote, now, about the rest....
    I am leaning Leave and leaning Osborne. Being a swing voter is a novel experience...

    NB On re-reading my piece it occurs to me that Macmillan might not have inherited the job as favourite to retain his position in 1959/60 - Mark Pack's database shows C/L level heading into 1957 but Labour then had substantial leads after Macmillan took over (a Suez effect, no doubt). Anyone know the prices?!
    I don't think there were any prices then.

    Plus the leader was elected by the magic circle, so not an appealing betting market.
    I meant prices for the next GE. Though, thinking about it, I think those were pioneered by Ron Pollard of Ladbrokes in the early 1960s.
  • MaxPB said:

    Then surely reversing cuts to the armed forces would be a priority, yet we are still cutting down on active infantry.

    If Osborne was courting popularity amongst party members, he'd prioritise the armed forces over the police.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    taffys said:

    Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.

    I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.

    He appeals to people who want someone sane and broad minded as PM and who has demonstrated the ability and nerve to hold down a top Cabinet post.
    Anyone nominating Liam Fox only demonstrates they are terminally thick. The other immediate name to spring to mind is Hammond but I suspect he will be Osborne's campaign manager and the next first secretary of state.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    TOPPING said:

    taffys said:

    Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.

    I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.

    he looked genuinely unworldly, as in not from this planet, during PMQs last week. I can't imagine anyone warming to him, if this is any kind of factor or requirement in PM desirability.
    As one of my friends put it recently, and I have posted it before - "If such a thing as a soul exists, then Osborne seems like he doesn't have one".
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Interesting betting article from TP. Halfon is a wasted bet. Very damaged goods. Hunt also looks to be damaged goods. Javid has no presence. The way for May to win is if she declares for Leave and does it at the first opportunity.

    Yes I have written Halfon off now. Hunt was at a very juicy price and there is a long way to go yet in this BMA dispute. Javid was a pre-election punt on the calculation that Osborne might not want it; I think it's pretty clear that he does now! May can certainly win in the manner you suggest.
  • Wanderer said:

    taffys said:

    Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.

    I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.

    He appeals to me somewhat. So that's one vote, now, about the rest....
    I am leaning Leave and leaning Osborne. Being a swing voter is a novel experience...

    NB On re-reading my piece it occurs to me that Macmillan might not have inherited the job as favourite to retain his position in 1959/60 - Mark Pack's database shows C/L level heading into 1957 but Labour then had substantial leads after Macmillan took over (a Suez effect, no doubt). Anyone know the prices?!
    I don't think there were any prices then.

    Plus the leader was elected by the magic circle, so not an appealing betting market.
    I meant prices for the next GE. Though, thinking about it, I think those were pioneered by Ron Pollard of Ladbrokes in the early 1960s.
    Ah get you.

    When I researched it a while back the first odds ever offered on the Tory leadership was for Heath in 1964.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Miss Plato, it's series 2, but feels like 3 because of the loooong mid-season interval. Agree entirely on the Penguin. In previous Batman stuff I've always found him the least interesting of characters, but he stole the show in the first series.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    MaxPB said:

    Then surely reversing cuts to the armed forces would be a priority, yet we are still cutting down on active infantry.

    If Osborne was courting popularity amongst party members, he'd prioritise the armed forces over the police.
    Vice versa for the public though. IMO he seems to be gambling on being more credible than his opponent as a potential PM.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    edited January 2016

    Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.

    {Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.

    I agree. I think he's the Mandleson sort rather than the Brown sort.

    Also Boris has no chance - he may be an affable chap and good as Mayor of London, but neither the MPs nor the members will elect a clown with a bunch of skeletons to be the PM.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Then surely reversing cuts to the armed forces would be a priority, yet we are still cutting down on active infantry.

    If Osborne was courting popularity amongst party members, he'd prioritise the armed forces over the police.
    Vice versa for the public though. IMO he seems to be gambling on being more credible than his opponent as a potential PM.
    If he really wanted to court popularity he'd slash the international aid budget and give it to the armed forces.
  • Sandpit said:

    Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.

    {Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.

    I agree. I think he's the Mandleson sort rather than the Brown sort.

    Also Boris has no chance - he may be an affable chap and good as Mayor of London, but neither the MPs nor the members will elect a clown with a bunch of skeletons to be the PM.
    In 2009 I was backing Mandelson as next PM.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Then surely reversing cuts to the armed forces would be a priority, yet we are still cutting down on active infantry.

    If Osborne was courting popularity amongst party members, he'd prioritise the armed forces over the police.
    Vice versa for the public though. IMO he seems to be gambling on being more credible than his opponent as a potential PM.
    If he really wanted to court popularity he'd slash the international aid budget and give it to the armed forces.
    I trod in some Osborne whilst out walking at the weekend.
  • I meant prices for the next GE. Though, thinking about it, I think those were pioneered by Ron Pollard of Ladbrokes in the early 1960s.

    There were betting markets on politics in the UK long before that - see pages 563ff of "The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling" (Google will give you a preview)
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I've met Richard too. Throwing insults at other Tory members doesn't impress me.
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.

    {Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.

    I was of the same mind but the November statement proved otherwise. He undid a lot of the unpopular cuts because they would dent his leadership ambitions as the chancellor pushing them through.
    No he had to undo them because they got voted out in the Lords. As I understand it under Universal Credit, they come in a few years down the line anyway, just in time for an election.
    Do you want to change your mind?
    Richard I have met and know is a party man, you I'm sure are just a CCHQ bot who, in the event of a government announcement that all people with the username "flightpath01" be publicly flogged, would be supportive.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Anyone who thinks for a moment that Osborne might not be euro-sceptic enough or some sort of a push over in respect of City interests really should watch this video: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/8878738/George-Osborne-attacks-Tobin-tax.html

    This is from 4 years ago and this was him speaking at a Fincom, something that is not usually not recorded. I personally would not want to be on the other side of a negotiation with this man. He is formidable.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Max, it's possible Corbyn won't be there by the time the Conservatives engage in the ritual bloodletting of their own leadership contest.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    What is the internet's greatest contribution to society? The spread of knowledge? Freedom of expression and communication? Free markets of empowered consumers and competitive suppliers? Pictures of naked ladies?

    They all deserve a mention. But my vote goes to making sure idiots no longer feel alone. The internet, the apex of human technical and intellectual achievement, means that no matter how dim-witted you are, no matter how fundamentally stupid your ideas are, you can always find someone who thinks the same way and can tell you that you're right.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12092603/As-Labours-attack-on-the-BBC-proves-the-internet-is-empowering-the-dangerously-thick.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    edited January 2016

    I've met Richard too. Throwing insults at other Tory members doesn't impress me.

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.

    {Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.

    I was of the same mind but the November statement proved otherwise. He undid a lot of the unpopular cuts because they would dent his leadership ambitions as the chancellor pushing them through.
    No he had to undo them because they got voted out in the Lords. As I understand it under Universal Credit, they come in a few years down the line anyway, just in time for an election.
    Do you want to change your mind?
    Richard I have met and know is a party man, you I'm sure are just a CCHQ bot who, in the event of a government announcement that all people with the username "flightpath01" be publicly flogged, would be supportive.
    I'll ask you this, have you ever, ever seen an area where flightpath has disagreed with the government line?

    I do, Richard does and so do all of the other Tory members on here. Loads of Labour members disagree with their party line as well. I have never seen flightpath deviate from the Tory party line. He is an astroturfer.

    Edit: If you thought I was insulting Richard then you are mistaken, I was just pointing out that I know he is a real person who does take the party line more often than not.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Is it his IIRC affair that's caused this? It doesn't bother me much.

    Interesting betting article from TP. Halfon is a wasted bet. Very damaged goods. Hunt also looks to be damaged goods. Javid has no presence. The way for May to win is if she declares for Leave and does it at the first opportunity.

    Yes I have written Halfon off now. Hunt was at a very juicy price and there is a long way to go yet in this BMA dispute. Javid was a pre-election punt on the calculation that Osborne might not want it; I think it's pretty clear that he does now! May can certainly win in the manner you suggest.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,302
    edited January 2016
    DavidL said:

    Anyone who thinks for a moment that Osborne might not be euro-sceptic enough or some sort of a push over in respect of City interests really should watch this video: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/8878738/George-Osborne-attacks-Tobin-tax.html

    This is from 4 years ago and this was him speaking at a Fincom, something that is not usually not recorded. I personally would not want to be on the other side of a negotiation with this man. He is formidable.

    LOL

    your description of of GO as a kind of Mandelson is nearer the mark. Though he's not quite as good. Like Mandelson he will never get the top job as he just pisses too many people off for his own good.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Scott_P said:

    What is the internet's greatest contribution to society? The spread of knowledge? Freedom of expression and communication? Free markets of empowered consumers and competitive suppliers? Pictures of naked ladies?

    They all deserve a mention. But my vote goes to making sure idiots no longer feel alone. The internet, the apex of human technical and intellectual achievement, means that no matter how dim-witted you are, no matter how fundamentally stupid your ideas are, you can always find someone who thinks the same way and can tell you that you're right.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12092603/As-Labours-attack-on-the-BBC-proves-the-internet-is-empowering-the-dangerously-thick.html

    Excellent. If a little close to home.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    Excellent. If a little close to home.

    That article is essential reading
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. P, not just the entertainingly thick, but the dangerously stupid too. Such as people who think Muslims in the UK get the same treatment as the Jews did under Hitler.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PSbook: As we predicted, Karl Turner gets nod as Labour's shadow attorney general. So who to replace him in #2 role. Rebecca Long-Bailey?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Then surely reversing cuts to the armed forces would be a priority, yet we are still cutting down on active infantry.

    If Osborne was courting popularity amongst party members, he'd prioritise the armed forces over the police.
    Vice versa for the public though. IMO he seems to be gambling on being more credible than his opponent as a potential PM.
    If he really wanted to court popularity he'd slash the international aid budget and give it to the armed forces.
    I get the feeling the PM might not be too happy if he did that. I think Osborne would be minded to do that, or pledge to do that in the leadership election, cut the GDP contribution to 0.5% and top up the defence budget to 2.2%, or shift the MoD's development spending to DfID entirely.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited January 2016
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    Excellent. If a little close to home.

    That article is essential reading
    A wonderful choice of photo to follow (I am sure entirely by coincidence) this bit:

    The internet connects all those tinfoil hats; people whose daftness would once have isolated them are now part of a group, a community, and sometimes a movement.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited January 2016
    http://order-order.com/2016/01/11/i-khant-read-sadiqs-radical-politics/

    RACCCCCIAAALLLLIIIISSSTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT...Going to here that cry every day until polling day now. Trying to close down and reshape the debate, telling your opponent you can't use a perfectly normal word.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.

    {Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.

    I think he's a great number two, and never thought he would put himself forward for the top job, but I think he's decided to see if he can give it a go and will give it his all. He has Cameron's backing, and despite being in post for years, only in the last year has he even really seemed a contender, and that too may fade depending on how badly he misses his economic targets, but even if he once resigned himself to not being cut out for the top job, I think he does want it now. He's incredibly young for someone who now has near 6 years experience as Chancellor (and a very influential one thanks to his good relationship with Cameron), so why not chance his arm?
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I've just had a similar experience on Twitter with a Corbynista. I was very polite, pointed out some uncomfortable facts and was then called a fat, mummies boy.

    I noted that I'm female, slim and my mother is long dead. He blocked me.

    The level of debate is non existent. It's toddler world.

    Mr. P, not just the entertainingly thick, but the dangerously stupid too. Such as people who think Muslims in the UK get the same treatment as the Jews did under Hitler.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited January 2016

    Mr. P, not just the entertainingly thick, but the dangerously stupid too. Such as people who think Muslims in the UK get the same treatment as the Jews did under Hitler.

    What they aren't? Moazzam Begg is touring our universities telling kids that is the case.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Miss Plato, quite.

    Whilst it's nice being able to just click idiots away, it also means self-selecting social circles are easily created and maintained, where ideas only ever get agreed with, and the concept of persuading other people or of being persuaded is theoretical only.

    I know PBers rarely concede ground or change their mind (it remains a slightly proud moment when I persuaded someone using balance of taxation powers that we need an English Parliament) but there is generally engagement.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518

    I've just had a similar experience on Twitter with a Corbynista. I was very polite, pointed out some uncomfortable facts and was then called a fat, mummies boy.

    I noted that I'm female, slim and my mother is long dead. He blocked me.

    The level of debate is non existent. It's toddler world.

    Mr. P, not just the entertainingly thick, but the dangerously stupid too. Such as people who think Muslims in the UK get the same treatment as the Jews did under Hitler.

    This is the whole debate about "safe spaces" in the US going on right now. Some on the left believe that certain groups should have safe spaces on US college campuses to "debate" ideas (furiously agree with each other) while some on the right think that the safe spaces are the first step to stifling freedom of expression and that people shouldn't be cosseted from discussion even if it is critical or even insulting. It isn't a right/left issue entirely though, Obama came out against safe spaces and said they are bad for education and freedom.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Scott_P said:

    @PSbook: As we predicted, Karl Turner gets nod as Labour's shadow attorney general. So who to replace him in #2 role. Rebecca Long-Bailey?

    Appointing someone with so little legal experience shows how there is next to no talent left on the Labour benches willing to serve.

    The AG has a vital role to play in the life of the nation as a senior law officer - someone with less than 5 years legal work experience is not fit for purpose. Even as a shadow AG.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JoeMurphyLondon: Three Tube strikes confirmed. In other news, Titanic sets sail and there's an incident on a bridge in Sarajevo https://t.co/jY24Q4ejtk
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    edited January 2016
    Mr. Urquhart, some people hunt for and cling to grievance the way frisky, but lonely, fellows accumulate pornography.

    Except enthusiastic onanists **** nobody but themselves, of course.

    It's much like motivation for the gym, or work, or drawing an Egyptian style depiction of a fictional character. Search for a reason to avoid something, or to do something, and you'll find it. Convince yourself the West is oppressing you/your people, and you'll find it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited January 2016

    Scott_P said:

    @PSbook: As we predicted, Karl Turner gets nod as Labour's shadow attorney general. So who to replace him in #2 role. Rebecca Long-Bailey?

    Appointing someone with so little legal experience shows how there is next to no talent left on the Labour benches willing to serve.

    The AG has a vital role to play in the life of the nation as a senior law officer - someone with less than 5 years legal work experience is not fit for purpose. Even as a shadow AG.
    "he graduated with a law degree as a mature student from the University of Hull in 2004. He became a barrister in 2005 after passing the Bar Vocational Course at Northumbria University and went on to practise criminal law for the Max Gold Partnership in Hull"

    Stellar expertise and experience. Just what we need to be able to be to understand the ins and outs of what is incredibly complex job.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,111
    You're not the only one- I think Osborne understands his strengths and weaknesses- unlike Gordon- and that he'd be much happier as kingmaker. I can see him rallying around an anyone but Theresa candidate- and would be more than happy supporting Boris
    Sandpit said:

    Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.

    {Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.

    I agree. I think he's the Mandleson sort rather than the Brown sort.

    Also Boris has no chance - he may be an affable chap and good as Mayor of London, but neither the MPs nor the members will elect a clown with a bunch of skeletons to be the PM.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: Three Tube strikes confirmed. In other news, Titanic sets sail and there's an incident on a bridge in Sarajevo https://t.co/jY24Q4ejtk

    This is Zac's big chance. He has to paint Khan as being in the pockets of the Corbyn and the unions. Zac needs to goad Khan into responding, either he is against organised Labour and the freedom to withhold it or he is for the strikes that will damage London's economy irritate millions of Londoners. If he is the former then he will lose support from the Labour base, if he is the latter then he will suffer in outer London.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Classic Boris. I don't really approve of his turn of phrase, but it's effective. http://www.cityam.com/232099/tube-strikes-2016-london-mayor-boris-johnson-and-zac-goldsmith-slam-sadiq-khan-over-union-support
    Johnson said investment in London transport would be "put in peril" if Sadiq Khan becomes Mayor, adding: "He is a tool of ASLEF. He emanates from the bowels of the unions."
  • Scott_P said:

    @PSbook: As we predicted, Karl Turner gets nod as Labour's shadow attorney general. So who to replace him in #2 role. Rebecca Long-Bailey?

    Appointing someone with so little legal experience shows how there is next to no talent left on the Labour benches willing to serve.

    The AG has a vital role to play in the life of the nation as a senior law officer - someone with less than 5 years legal work experience is not fit for purpose. Even as a shadow AG.
    If Starmer doesn't get Shadow Solicitor General then we must assume he turned down a position (AG or SG).
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Quite.

    Scott_P said:

    @PSbook: As we predicted, Karl Turner gets nod as Labour's shadow attorney general. So who to replace him in #2 role. Rebecca Long-Bailey?

    Appointing someone with so little legal experience shows how there is next to no talent left on the Labour benches willing to serve.

    The AG has a vital role to play in the life of the nation as a senior law officer - someone with less than 5 years legal work experience is not fit for purpose. Even as a shadow AG.
    If Starmer doesn't get Shadow Solicitor General then we must assume he turned down a position (AG or SG).
  • MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: Three Tube strikes confirmed. In other news, Titanic sets sail and there's an incident on a bridge in Sarajevo https://t.co/jY24Q4ejtk

    This is Zac's big chance. He has to paint Khan as being in the pockets of the Corbyn and the unions. Zac needs to goad Khan into responding, either he is against organised Labour and the freedom to withhold it or he is for the strikes that will damage London's economy irritate millions of Londoners. If he is the former then he will lose support from the Labour base, if he is the latter then he will suffer in outer London.
    I agree, Zac has to get him refusing to condemn, etc.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jessbrammar: UK Communist Party call for Lab to take Leave side in EU Ref as "platform for arguing alternative to Tory austerity" https://t.co/U0n8YEbhJ2
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    Scott_P said:

    @PSbook: As we predicted, Karl Turner gets nod as Labour's shadow attorney general. So who to replace him in #2 role. Rebecca Long-Bailey?

    Appointing someone with so little legal experience shows how there is next to no talent left on the Labour benches willing to serve.

    The AG has a vital role to play in the life of the nation as a senior law officer - someone with less than 5 years legal work experience is not fit for purpose. Even as a shadow AG.
    "he graduated with a law degree as a mature student from the University of Hull in 2004. He became a barrister in 2005 after passing the Bar Vocational Course at Northumbria University and went on to practise criminal law for the Max Gold Partnership in Hull"

    Stellar expertise and experience. Just what we need to be able to be to understand the ins and outs of what is incredibly complex job.
    I am sure his opinion on the legality of Labour's next war will be compelling.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    This is Zac's big chance.

    Interesting they didn't wait until after June to walk out.
  • Scott_P said:

    @PSbook: As we predicted, Karl Turner gets nod as Labour's shadow attorney general. So who to replace him in #2 role. Rebecca Long-Bailey?

    Appointing someone with so little legal experience shows how there is next to no talent left on the Labour benches willing to serve.

    The AG has a vital role to play in the life of the nation as a senior law officer - someone with less than 5 years legal work experience is not fit for purpose. Even as a shadow AG.
    If Starmer doesn't get Shadow Solicitor General then we must assume he turned down a position (AG or SG).
    You would at least hope he was offered that role to turn down, rather than just giving it to somebody from Northumberland poly with zero experience.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Scott_P said:

    @jessbrammar: UK Communist Party call for Lab to take Leave side in EU Ref as "platform for arguing alternative to Tory austerity" https://t.co/U0n8YEbhJ2

    That's good - reminds people there is a Communist Party (is UK Communitst Party not the same as the Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist)?), and so all of Corbyn's views appear less extreme.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    This is just so bizarre and grimly funny. WTF are Labour doing?! :wink:
    Scott_P said:

    @jessbrammar: UK Communist Party call for Lab to take Leave side in EU Ref as "platform for arguing alternative to Tory austerity" https://t.co/U0n8YEbhJ2

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited January 2016
    Twitter is a safe space for all manner of daftness. It's even more disappointing to realise that it's a home for the stupid AND lazy.

    Slacktivism is on the increase - petition this, like that, down-vote the other job done, time to lay down my SJW credentials for the day etc.

    I suppose I should be grateful. As Moltke said, it's only the stupid and energetic that are truly dangerous.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @robertshrimsley: When you have to explain this to people, you have already lost https://t.co/YfPJmNbJGT
  • Scott_P said:

    @PSbook: As we predicted, Karl Turner gets nod as Labour's shadow attorney general. So who to replace him in #2 role. Rebecca Long-Bailey?

    Appointing someone with so little legal experience shows how there is next to no talent left on the Labour benches willing to serve.

    The AG has a vital role to play in the life of the nation as a senior law officer - someone with less than 5 years legal work experience is not fit for purpose. Even as a shadow AG.
    If Starmer doesn't get Shadow Solicitor General then we must assume he turned down a position (AG or SG).
    You would at least hope he was offered that role to turn down, rather than just giving it to somebody from Northumberland poly with zero experience.
    Well, there is an argument to say he should start as a law minister for ministerial experience. Hence waiting until shadow SG is announced.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    I'd suggest 99.99% of the population had no idea there's still a Communist Party here. Jezza has given new life to them and the Morning Star.

    Beyond weird. I never expected this on May 8th.
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jessbrammar: UK Communist Party call for Lab to take Leave side in EU Ref as "platform for arguing alternative to Tory austerity" https://t.co/U0n8YEbhJ2

    That's good - reminds people there is a Communist Party (is UK Communitst Party not the same as the Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist)?), and so all of Corbyn's views appear less extreme.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    DavidL said:

    Anyone who thinks for a moment that Osborne might not be euro-sceptic enough or some sort of a push over in respect of City interests really should watch this video: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/8878738/George-Osborne-attacks-Tobin-tax.html

    This is from 4 years ago and this was him speaking at a Fincom, something that is not usually not recorded. I personally would not want to be on the other side of a negotiation with this man. He is formidable.

    LOL

    your description of of GO as a kind of Mandelson is nearer the mark. Though he's not quite as good. Like Mandelson he will never get the top job as he just pisses too many people off for his own good.

    I think the job is his for the taking. But does he want it? I am not completely convinced about that although his tune has changed a bit since Cameron confirmed he was going.

    There was a bit I recall in Lawson's truly outstanding book "the view from No. 11" where he said the fact he was never considered a possible replacement for Maggie weakened him in negotiations within the party. I have no doubt Osborne will be aware of the observation and he may just be acting accordingly to ensure power does not drain away prematurely. But he has already done a serious shift and he may have had enough.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    MaxPB said:

    I've just had a similar experience on Twitter with a Corbynista. I was very polite, pointed out some uncomfortable facts and was then called a fat, mummies boy.

    I noted that I'm female, slim and my mother is long dead. He blocked me.

    The level of debate is non existent. It's toddler world.

    Mr. P, not just the entertainingly thick, but the dangerously stupid too. Such as people who think Muslims in the UK get the same treatment as the Jews did under Hitler.

    This is the whole debate about "safe spaces" in the US going on right now. Some on the left believe that certain groups should have safe spaces on US college campuses to "debate" ideas (furiously agree with each other) while some on the right think that the safe spaces are the first step to stifling freedom of expression and that people shouldn't be cosseted from discussion even if it is critical or even insulting. It isn't a right/left issue entirely though, Obama came out against safe spaces and said they are bad for education and freedom.
    I am surprised there is even a debate about this. A university which shies away from critical thinking is not a university but a dinner party.

    "Space safes" are the "intellectual" equivalent of those plastic corners you put on tables to stop your toddler poking his eye out when he falls. They are not necessary for adults.

    Anyone demanding a "safe space" reveals themselves to be a baby. Usually a baby shrieking and spitting out their dummy. But a baby nonetheless. They should be gently told that we - the grown ups - will pay attention to them when - and only when - they have grown up.

This discussion has been closed.