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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tissue Price on Osborne’s leadership ambitions and his EURe
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tissue Price on Osborne’s leadership ambitions and his EURef problem
But the folk wisdom on backing the next Tory leader is that the favourite never wins. That the winner is more about who he isn’t, than who he is. You have to go all the way back to Eden to find a clear case of the long-term favourite succeeding, and that’s despite several changes to the method of election since then.
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Thanks, Mr Price. Although I still wonder if Osborne actually wants the job - and whether all of this talk is to direct fire away from other candidates.
IMO he's much more likely to want to be the power behind the throne.
But I'm probably wrong. As usual ...
Don't see Ozzy in that space myself. He's no pushover, but he's not a natural BOOer.
Osborne is rightly favourite, of course, but whether the current odds represent value is a bit less clear to me. The key sentence in TP's piece is this one:
Turning to the mechanics of the election, it seems pretty clear that Osborne already has the MP nominations in the bag. He might even have enough nominations to (in theory) “choose his own opponent”
Who is that opponent going to be, and will he or she get into the final because of merit as the best anti-Osborne candidate, or because Osborne will have engineered a less-than-overwhelming alternative?
I think one has to treat leadership elections in government as almost entirely different animals from those in opposition. That's especially true if the governing party is in good nick which is very rare, as you say (and might not end up being the case here).
I also think that whether Osborne can pick his run-off opponent may be decisive. As I've said a few times, Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.
I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.
Did you try PSVR at CES? I think it is probably the worst of the three on a technical level (though that's only because the other two are just very, very good and PSVR is just very good) but I've heard from multiple people that $399 is the likely price point with one Move and the PS Camera, plus there will eventually be a solo headset without other stuff for less money. If it is anywhere near $399/£349 vs whatever OR and HTC do, the market is likely going to be heading towards console players for a long time.
Osborne
May
Boris
Hammond
Fox (I'm assuming the Eurosceptic right will have a candidate whatever happens in the referendum.)
It seems to me that Osborne would prefer Fox in such a case?
Post-Leave I don't think it applies does it? Osborne wouldn't control so many votes in that situation and would have to look to his own chances, not picking his opponent.
{Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.
I wasn't a party member at the time, but I remember having a conversation with a good friend who was a prominent local councillor and a dyed-in-the-wool Conservative - she'd been PA to one of the Tory grandees. I asked her what on earth the party was doing choosing the unelectable IDS over Ken Clarke; her response was to say that there was no choice, the party would have split in two if Clarke had been selected. Party members knew exactly what they were doing, and in retrospect they were right. In any case Blair was invincible at the time, so electability was academic anyway.
This time it will be different (assuming a Remain vote, of course). Party unity won't be an issue, and those who prefer someone else to Osborne would accept Osborne all the same. If the alternative looks like no more of a winner than Osborne, they'll go for Osborne.
This is why I think exactly one of Sajid Javid, Theresa May and Boris Johnson will gamble on Leave. It'll put them in pole position to be that candidate should the Tory party need this, and be distinctive in what's looking like a crowded field? My instinct is that Sajid Javid won't (as per the article, it's more covering Osborne if he goes Leave) Boris will be bought off in the end - so there's a career defining moment for Theresa May coming up very quickly in my view.
Do you want to change your mind?
NB On re-reading my piece it occurs to me that Macmillan might not have inherited the job as favourite to retain his position in 1959/60 - Mark Pack's database shows C/L level heading into 1957 but Labour then had substantial leads after Macmillan took over (a Suez effect, no doubt). Anyone know the prices?!
11:24am: Catherine McKinnell quits
11:51am: Paul Sheriff quits as PPS
11:56am: Corbyn says he won't address PLP...
I might put one together myself when I have a free moment.
Paul Kenny to Corbyn - (Great use of Swanee as a verb)- https://t.co/m80iUol63h https://t.co/0UZrHlBtO4
The undoing of them in the Autumn Statement was also masterful politics, as he actually only undid half of them by leaving the reduction in the lower threshold.
Plus the leader was elected by the magic circle, so not an appealing betting market.
There is certainly a counterintuitive case to be made (as Plato hints) that the next leader should come from the losing side of the referendum, in the interests of reconciliation.
Anyone nominating Liam Fox only demonstrates they are terminally thick. The other immediate name to spring to mind is Hammond but I suspect he will be Osborne's campaign manager and the next first secretary of state.
When I researched it a while back the first odds ever offered on the Tory leadership was for Heath in 1964.
Miss Plato, it's series 2, but feels like 3 because of the loooong mid-season interval. Agree entirely on the Penguin. In previous Batman stuff I've always found him the least interesting of characters, but he stole the show in the first series.
Also Boris has no chance - he may be an affable chap and good as Mayor of London, but neither the MPs nor the members will elect a clown with a bunch of skeletons to be the PM.
This is from 4 years ago and this was him speaking at a Fincom, something that is not usually not recorded. I personally would not want to be on the other side of a negotiation with this man. He is formidable.
I do, Richard does and so do all of the other Tory members on here. Loads of Labour members disagree with their party line as well. I have never seen flightpath deviate from the Tory party line. He is an astroturfer.
Edit: If you thought I was insulting Richard then you are mistaken, I was just pointing out that I know he is a real person who does take the party line more often than not.
your description of of GO as a kind of Mandelson is nearer the mark. Though he's not quite as good. Like Mandelson he will never get the top job as he just pisses too many people off for his own good.
Excellent. If a little close to home.
The internet connects all those tinfoil hats; people whose daftness would once have isolated them are now part of a group, a community, and sometimes a movement.
RACCCCCIAAALLLLIIIISSSTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT...Going to here that cry every day until polling day now. Trying to close down and reshape the debate, telling your opponent you can't use a perfectly normal word.
I noted that I'm female, slim and my mother is long dead. He blocked me.
The level of debate is non existent. It's toddler world.
Whilst it's nice being able to just click idiots away, it also means self-selecting social circles are easily created and maintained, where ideas only ever get agreed with, and the concept of persuading other people or of being persuaded is theoretical only.
I know PBers rarely concede ground or change their mind (it remains a slightly proud moment when I persuaded someone using balance of taxation powers that we need an English Parliament) but there is generally engagement.
The AG has a vital role to play in the life of the nation as a senior law officer - someone with less than 5 years legal work experience is not fit for purpose. Even as a shadow AG.
Except enthusiastic onanists **** nobody but themselves, of course.
It's much like motivation for the gym, or work, or drawing an Egyptian style depiction of a fictional character. Search for a reason to avoid something, or to do something, and you'll find it. Convince yourself the West is oppressing you/your people, and you'll find it.
Stellar expertise and experience. Just what we need to be able to be to understand the ins and outs of what is incredibly complex job.
Interesting they didn't wait until after June to walk out.
Slacktivism is on the increase - petition this, like that, down-vote the other job done, time to lay down my SJW credentials for the day etc.
I suppose I should be grateful. As Moltke said, it's only the stupid and energetic that are truly dangerous.
Beyond weird. I never expected this on May 8th.
There was a bit I recall in Lawson's truly outstanding book "the view from No. 11" where he said the fact he was never considered a possible replacement for Maggie weakened him in negotiations within the party. I have no doubt Osborne will be aware of the observation and he may just be acting accordingly to ensure power does not drain away prematurely. But he has already done a serious shift and he may have had enough.
"Space safes" are the "intellectual" equivalent of those plastic corners you put on tables to stop your toddler poking his eye out when he falls. They are not necessary for adults.
Anyone demanding a "safe space" reveals themselves to be a baby. Usually a baby shrieking and spitting out their dummy. But a baby nonetheless. They should be gently told that we - the grown ups - will pay attention to them when - and only when - they have grown up.