politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tissue Price on Osborne’s leadership ambitions and his EURe
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tissue Price on Osborne’s leadership ambitions and his EURef problem
But the folk wisdom on backing the next Tory leader is that the favourite never wins. That the winner is more about who he isn’t, than who he is. You have to go all the way back to Eden to find a clear case of the long-term favourite succeeding, and that’s despite several changes to the method of election since then.
Comments
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Thirst?
Thanks, Mr Price. Although I still wonder if Osborne actually wants the job - and whether all of this talk is to direct fire away from other candidates.
IMO he's much more likely to want to be the power behind the throne.
But I'm probably wrong. As usual ...0 -
Quenched. Watch Hammond...0
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Good piece, if Leave wins then Osborne is a goner. In fact his career dies with Dave's.0
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Lay the favourite. Lay the second favourite too (the member for Uxbridge).0
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Somewhat importantly, do we know how well (or not) Osborne gets on with the journalists and editors of right-wing papers and websites?0
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Did a straw poll of people in my office (financial services) and it is about 40% remain, 30% leave, 30% undecided/refused. I think a few years ago if someone had said the City would be a close race then they would have been laughed out of the room. The EU (and Dave, by way of not negotiating for a FinReg veto) seems determined to push the City away from remain with poor regulation and arbitrary rules intended to harm the industry. Poll taken from Wed-Fri last week, 38 people asked!0
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But then again if Remain wins, Tories like me will want a strong sceptic as leader.
Don't see Ozzy in that space myself. He's no pushover, but he's not a natural BOOer.MaxPB said:Good piece, if Leave wins then Osborne is a goner. In fact his career dies with Dave's.
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GO has no chance either way - just not going to happen.0
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I think that's the way it should be. The PM and CoE are an integral team and should be regarded as a unit. They both develop strategy and guide the country through their vision. When one goes, they both should - barring scandal of course.MaxPB said:Good piece, if Leave wins then Osborne is a goner. In fact his career dies with Dave's.
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@MaxPB: more importantly, http://www.engadget.com/2016/01/11/htc-vive-pre-orders-february-29/0
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Lolololol http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/09/jeremy-corbyn-on-middle-britain-labour-beating-the-tories
Which is exactly what we will do. For all the media sound and fury, last week’s shadow cabinet reshuffle has made us a stronger, more diverse and more coherent leadership team.
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Good piece from Tissue Price, as one would expect.
Osborne is rightly favourite, of course, but whether the current odds represent value is a bit less clear to me. The key sentence in TP's piece is this one:
Turning to the mechanics of the election, it seems pretty clear that Osborne already has the MP nominations in the bag. He might even have enough nominations to (in theory) “choose his own opponent”
Who is that opponent going to be, and will he or she get into the final because of merit as the best anti-Osborne candidate, or because Osborne will have engineered a less-than-overwhelming alternative?0 -
The Tories elected the "not Ken" candidate; they could just as easily elect the "not Ozzy" offering, even if they don't look like a winner.Richard_Nabavi said:Good piece from Tissue Price, as one would expect.
Osborne is rightly favourite, of course, but whether the current odds represent value is a bit less clear to me. The key sentence in TP's piece is this one:
Turning to the mechanics of the election, it seems pretty clear that Osborne already has the MP nominations in the bag. He might even have enough nominations to (in theory) “choose his own opponent”
Who is that opponent going to be, and will he or she get into the final because of merit as the best anti-Osborne candidate, or because Osborne will have engineered a less-than-overwhelming alternative?0 -
Thanks @Tissue_Price. Very good analysis of the George Question.
I think one has to treat leadership elections in government as almost entirely different animals from those in opposition. That's especially true if the governing party is in good nick which is very rare, as you say (and might not end up being the case here).
I also think that whether Osborne can pick his run-off opponent may be decisive. As I've said a few times, Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.0 -
FPT: thanks @RodCrosby for the Art Tatum track. Lifted my spirits for the afternoon.0
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Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.
I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.0 -
Excellent piece by Tissue Price, one that I largely agree with as our portfolio on this market is similar.0
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I don't think they are going to put it on sale for less than $799.rcs1000 said:@MaxPB: more importantly, http://www.engadget.com/2016/01/11/htc-vive-pre-orders-february-29/
Did you try PSVR at CES? I think it is probably the worst of the three on a technical level (though that's only because the other two are just very, very good and PSVR is just very good) but I've heard from multiple people that $399 is the likely price point with one Move and the PS Camera, plus there will eventually be a solo headset without other stuff for less money. If it is anywhere near $399/£349 vs whatever OR and HTC do, the market is likely going to be heading towards console players for a long time.0 -
Absolutely. @Tissue_Price has nailed it and this is the key issue.Wanderer said:
Thanks @Tissue_Price. Very good analysis of the George Question.
I think one has to treat leadership elections in government as almost entirely different animals from those in opposition. That's especially true if the governing party is in good nick which is very rare, as you say (and might not end up being the case here).
I also think that whether Osborne can pick his run-off opponent may be decisive. As I've said a few times, Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.0 -
Good question. To state the obvious, it's got to be someone who's standing and it's possible to imagine a post-Remain field (I think - please correct me) like:Richard_Nabavi said:Good piece from Tissue Price, as one would expect.
Osborne is rightly favourite, of course, but whether the current odds represent value is a bit less clear to me. The key sentence in TP's piece is this one:
Turning to the mechanics of the election, it seems pretty clear that Osborne already has the MP nominations in the bag. He might even have enough nominations to (in theory) “choose his own opponent”
Who is that opponent going to be, and will he or she get into the final because of merit as the best anti-Osborne candidate, or because Osborne will have engineered a less-than-overwhelming alternative?
Osborne
May
Boris
Hammond
Fox (I'm assuming the Eurosceptic right will have a candidate whatever happens in the referendum.)
It seems to me that Osborne would prefer Fox in such a case?
Post-Leave I don't think it applies does it? Osborne wouldn't control so many votes in that situation and would have to look to his own chances, not picking his opponent.0 -
Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.
{Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.0 -
George Galloway "If someone proposed a role in Scotland which satisfied me and Labour I would definitely look at it" https://t.co/XtiUHGImfM0
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Not comparable, I think.SandyRentool said:The Tories elected the "not Ken" candidate; they could just as easily elect the "not Ozzy" offering, even if they don't look like a winner.
I wasn't a party member at the time, but I remember having a conversation with a good friend who was a prominent local councillor and a dyed-in-the-wool Conservative - she'd been PA to one of the Tory grandees. I asked her what on earth the party was doing choosing the unelectable IDS over Ken Clarke; her response was to say that there was no choice, the party would have split in two if Clarke had been selected. Party members knew exactly what they were doing, and in retrospect they were right. In any case Blair was invincible at the time, so electability was academic anyway.
This time it will be different (assuming a Remain vote, of course). Party unity won't be an issue, and those who prefer someone else to Osborne would accept Osborne all the same. If the alternative looks like no more of a winner than Osborne, they'll go for Osborne.0 -
He appeals to me somewhat. So that's one vote, now, about the rest....taffys said:Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.
I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.0 -
I'm going to do precisely that. There is no way I would vote for Osborne as leader, even if it was vs IDS.SandyRentool said:
The Tories elected the "not Ken" candidate; they could just as easily elect the "not Ozzy" offering, even if they don't look like a winner.Richard_Nabavi said:Good piece from Tissue Price, as one would expect.
Osborne is rightly favourite, of course, but whether the current odds represent value is a bit less clear to me. The key sentence in TP's piece is this one:
Turning to the mechanics of the election, it seems pretty clear that Osborne already has the MP nominations in the bag. He might even have enough nominations to (in theory) “choose his own opponent”
Who is that opponent going to be, and will he or she get into the final because of merit as the best anti-Osborne candidate, or because Osborne will have engineered a less-than-overwhelming alternative?
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Yes, Art Tatum is absolutely wonderful. Also Rod mentioned Ben Webster - another goodie.Wanderer said:FPT: thanks @RodCrosby for the Art Tatum track. Lifted my spirits for the afternoon.
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I was of the same mind but the November statement proved otherwise. He undid a lot of the unpopular cuts because they would dent his leadership ambitions as the chancellor pushing them through.SimonStClare said:Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.
{Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.0 -
No he didn't. He (partially) undid the change to Tax Credits because he didn't have a majority in the House to force them through.MaxPB said:
I was of the same mind but the November statement proved otherwise. He undid a lot of the unpopular cuts because they would dent his leadership ambitions as the chancellor pushing them through.0 -
The interesting question is who the standard-bearer of the Eurosceptic right would be? Liam Fox is pencilled in at the moment, but surely isn't credible. There surely will be such a candidate. The only other names I can think of are Owen Paterson and David Davis, hardly shining stars (and fading at that.)
This is why I think exactly one of Sajid Javid, Theresa May and Boris Johnson will gamble on Leave. It'll put them in pole position to be that candidate should the Tory party need this, and be distinctive in what's looking like a crowded field? My instinct is that Sajid Javid won't (as per the article, it's more covering Osborne if he goes Leave) Boris will be bought off in the end - so there's a career defining moment for Theresa May coming up very quickly in my view.0 -
No he had to undo them because they got voted out in the Lords. As I understand it under Universal Credit, they come in a few years down the line anyway, just in time for an election.MaxPB said:
I was of the same mind but the November statement proved otherwise. He undid a lot of the unpopular cuts because they would dent his leadership ambitions as the chancellor pushing them through.SimonStClare said:Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.
{Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.
Do you want to change your mind?0 -
And cuts to the police?Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. He (partially) undid the change to Tax Credits because he didn't have a majority in the House to force them through.MaxPB said:
I was of the same mind but the November statement proved otherwise. He undid a lot of the unpopular cuts because they would dent his leadership ambitions as the chancellor pushing them through.0 -
I am leaning Leave and leaning Osborne. Being a swing voter is a novel experience...Wanderer said:
He appeals to me somewhat. So that's one vote, now, about the rest....taffys said:Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.
I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.
NB On re-reading my piece it occurs to me that Macmillan might not have inherited the job as favourite to retain his position in 1959/60 - Mark Pack's database shows C/L level heading into 1957 but Labour then had substantial leads after Macmillan took over (a Suez effect, no doubt). Anyone know the prices?!0 -
Alex Wickham
11:24am: Catherine McKinnell quits
11:51am: Paul Sheriff quits as PPS
11:56am: Corbyn says he won't address PLP...0 -
This is a problem crying out for a decision tree.
I might put one together myself when I have a free moment.0 -
Andrew Sparrow
Paul Kenny to Corbyn - (Great use of Swanee as a verb)- https://t.co/m80iUol63h https://t.co/0UZrHlBtO40 -
He got them through the House, it was the Other Place that voted them down.Richard_Nabavi said:
No he didn't. He (partially) undid the change to Tax Credits because he didn't have a majority in the House to force them through.MaxPB said:
I was of the same mind but the November statement proved otherwise. He undid a lot of the unpopular cuts because they would dent his leadership ambitions as the chancellor pushing them through.
The undoing of them in the Autumn Statement was also masterful politics, as he actually only undid half of them by leaving the reduction in the lower threshold.0 -
Richard I have met and know is a party man, you I'm sure are just a CCHQ bot who, in the event of a government announcement that all people with the username "flightpath01" be publicly flogged, would be supportive.flightpath01 said:
No he had to undo them because they got voted out in the Lords. As I understand it under Universal Credit, they come in a few years down the line anyway, just in time for an election.MaxPB said:
I was of the same mind but the November statement proved otherwise. He undid a lot of the unpopular cuts because they would dent his leadership ambitions as the chancellor pushing them through.SimonStClare said:Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.
{Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.
Do you want to change your mind?0 -
Maybe, but given the increased terrorism risk, and the principal Conservative message of security, I'm not too surprised that there was a rethink on that. Sometimes lobbying and internal debate do produce results on the merits of the argument - not everything is a leadership bid!MaxPB said:And cuts to the police?
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I don't think there were any prices then.Tissue_Price said:
I am leaning Leave and leaning Osborne. Being a swing voter is a novel experience...Wanderer said:
He appeals to me somewhat. So that's one vote, now, about the rest....taffys said:Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.
I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.
NB On re-reading my piece it occurs to me that Macmillan might not have inherited the job as favourite to retain his position in 1959/60 - Mark Pack's database shows C/L level heading into 1957 but Labour then had substantial leads after Macmillan took over (a Suez effect, no doubt). Anyone know the prices?!
Plus the leader was elected by the magic circle, so not an appealing betting market.0 -
I contemplated writing the thread as such!AlastairMeeks said:This is a problem crying out for a decision tree.
I might put one together myself when I have a free moment.
There is certainly a counterintuitive case to be made (as Plato hints) that the next leader should come from the losing side of the referendum, in the interests of reconciliation.0 -
he looked genuinely unworldly, as in not from this planet, during PMQs last week. I can't imagine anyone warming to him, if this is any kind of factor or requirement in PM desirability.taffys said:Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.
I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.0 -
Interesting betting article from TP. Halfon is a wasted bet. Very damaged goods. Hunt also looks to be damaged goods. Javid has no presence. The way for May to win is if she declares for Leave and does it at the first opportunity.0
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Then surely reversing cuts to the armed forces would be a priority, yet we are still cutting down on active infantry.Richard_Nabavi said:
Maybe, but given the increased terrorism risk, and the principal Conservative message of security, I'm not too surprised that there was a rethink on that. Sometimes lobbying and internal debate do produce results on the merits of the argument - not everything is a leadership bid!MaxPB said:And cuts to the police?
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Voodoo poll, 38 people - did any know your views?MaxPB said:Did a straw poll of people in my office (financial services) and it is about 40% remain, 30% leave, 30% undecided/refused. I think a few years ago if someone had said the City would be a close race then they would have been laughed out of the room. The EU (and Dave, by way of not negotiating for a FinReg veto) seems determined to push the City away from remain with poor regulation and arbitrary rules intended to harm the industry. Poll taken from Wed-Fri last week, 38 people asked!
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I meant prices for the next GE. Though, thinking about it, I think those were pioneered by Ron Pollard of Ladbrokes in the early 1960s.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't think there were any prices then.Tissue_Price said:
I am leaning Leave and leaning Osborne. Being a swing voter is a novel experience...Wanderer said:
He appeals to me somewhat. So that's one vote, now, about the rest....taffys said:Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.
I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.
NB On re-reading my piece it occurs to me that Macmillan might not have inherited the job as favourite to retain his position in 1959/60 - Mark Pack's database shows C/L level heading into 1957 but Labour then had substantial leads after Macmillan took over (a Suez effect, no doubt). Anyone know the prices?!
Plus the leader was elected by the magic circle, so not an appealing betting market.0 -
If Osborne was courting popularity amongst party members, he'd prioritise the armed forces over the police.MaxPB said:Then surely reversing cuts to the armed forces would be a priority, yet we are still cutting down on active infantry.
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He appeals to people who want someone sane and broad minded as PM and who has demonstrated the ability and nerve to hold down a top Cabinet post.taffys said:Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.
I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.
Anyone nominating Liam Fox only demonstrates they are terminally thick. The other immediate name to spring to mind is Hammond but I suspect he will be Osborne's campaign manager and the next first secretary of state.0 -
As one of my friends put it recently, and I have posted it before - "If such a thing as a soul exists, then Osborne seems like he doesn't have one".TOPPING said:
he looked genuinely unworldly, as in not from this planet, during PMQs last week. I can't imagine anyone warming to him, if this is any kind of factor or requirement in PM desirability.taffys said:Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.
I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.0 -
Yes I have written Halfon off now. Hunt was at a very juicy price and there is a long way to go yet in this BMA dispute. Javid was a pre-election punt on the calculation that Osborne might not want it; I think it's pretty clear that he does now! May can certainly win in the manner you suggest.TCPoliticalBetting said:Interesting betting article from TP. Halfon is a wasted bet. Very damaged goods. Hunt also looks to be damaged goods. Javid has no presence. The way for May to win is if she declares for Leave and does it at the first opportunity.
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Ah get you.Tissue_Price said:
I meant prices for the next GE. Though, thinking about it, I think those were pioneered by Ron Pollard of Ladbrokes in the early 1960s.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't think there were any prices then.Tissue_Price said:
I am leaning Leave and leaning Osborne. Being a swing voter is a novel experience...Wanderer said:
He appeals to me somewhat. So that's one vote, now, about the rest....taffys said:Osborne doesn't strike me as a man born to appeal to shire Tories, but he doesn't have to be perfect, just better than the other choice.
I'm not sure who Osborne does appeal to. That's the problem.
NB On re-reading my piece it occurs to me that Macmillan might not have inherited the job as favourite to retain his position in 1959/60 - Mark Pack's database shows C/L level heading into 1957 but Labour then had substantial leads after Macmillan took over (a Suez effect, no doubt). Anyone know the prices?!
Plus the leader was elected by the magic circle, so not an appealing betting market.
When I researched it a while back the first odds ever offered on the Tory leadership was for Heath in 1964.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Miss Plato, it's series 2, but feels like 3 because of the loooong mid-season interval. Agree entirely on the Penguin. In previous Batman stuff I've always found him the least interesting of characters, but he stole the show in the first series.0 -
Vice versa for the public though. IMO he seems to be gambling on being more credible than his opponent as a potential PM.Richard_Nabavi said:
If Osborne was courting popularity amongst party members, he'd prioritise the armed forces over the police.MaxPB said:Then surely reversing cuts to the armed forces would be a priority, yet we are still cutting down on active infantry.
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I agree. I think he's the Mandleson sort rather than the Brown sort.SimonStClare said:Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.
{Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.
Also Boris has no chance - he may be an affable chap and good as Mayor of London, but neither the MPs nor the members will elect a clown with a bunch of skeletons to be the PM.0 -
If he really wanted to court popularity he'd slash the international aid budget and give it to the armed forces.MaxPB said:
Vice versa for the public though. IMO he seems to be gambling on being more credible than his opponent as a potential PM.Richard_Nabavi said:
If Osborne was courting popularity amongst party members, he'd prioritise the armed forces over the police.MaxPB said:Then surely reversing cuts to the armed forces would be a priority, yet we are still cutting down on active infantry.
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In 2009 I was backing Mandelson as next PM.Sandpit said:
I agree. I think he's the Mandleson sort rather than the Brown sort.SimonStClare said:Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.
{Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.
Also Boris has no chance - he may be an affable chap and good as Mayor of London, but neither the MPs nor the members will elect a clown with a bunch of skeletons to be the PM.0 -
I trod in some Osborne whilst out walking at the weekend.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he really wanted to court popularity he'd slash the international aid budget and give it to the armed forces.MaxPB said:
Vice versa for the public though. IMO he seems to be gambling on being more credible than his opponent as a potential PM.Richard_Nabavi said:
If Osborne was courting popularity amongst party members, he'd prioritise the armed forces over the police.MaxPB said:Then surely reversing cuts to the armed forces would be a priority, yet we are still cutting down on active infantry.
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There were betting markets on politics in the UK long before that - see pages 563ff of "The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling" (Google will give you a preview)Tissue_Price said:I meant prices for the next GE. Though, thinking about it, I think those were pioneered by Ron Pollard of Ladbrokes in the early 1960s.
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I've met Richard too. Throwing insults at other Tory members doesn't impress me.MaxPB said:
Richard I have met and know is a party man, you I'm sure are just a CCHQ bot who, in the event of a government announcement that all people with the username "flightpath01" be publicly flogged, would be supportive.flightpath01 said:
No he had to undo them because they got voted out in the Lords. As I understand it under Universal Credit, they come in a few years down the line anyway, just in time for an election.MaxPB said:
I was of the same mind but the November statement proved otherwise. He undid a lot of the unpopular cuts because they would dent his leadership ambitions as the chancellor pushing them through.SimonStClare said:Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.
{Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.
Do you want to change your mind?0 -
Anyone who thinks for a moment that Osborne might not be euro-sceptic enough or some sort of a push over in respect of City interests really should watch this video: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/8878738/George-Osborne-attacks-Tobin-tax.html
This is from 4 years ago and this was him speaking at a Fincom, something that is not usually not recorded. I personally would not want to be on the other side of a negotiation with this man. He is formidable.0 -
Mr. Max, it's possible Corbyn won't be there by the time the Conservatives engage in the ritual bloodletting of their own leadership contest.0
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What is the internet's greatest contribution to society? The spread of knowledge? Freedom of expression and communication? Free markets of empowered consumers and competitive suppliers? Pictures of naked ladies?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12092603/As-Labours-attack-on-the-BBC-proves-the-internet-is-empowering-the-dangerously-thick.html
They all deserve a mention. But my vote goes to making sure idiots no longer feel alone. The internet, the apex of human technical and intellectual achievement, means that no matter how dim-witted you are, no matter how fundamentally stupid your ideas are, you can always find someone who thinks the same way and can tell you that you're right.0 -
I'll ask you this, have you ever, ever seen an area where flightpath has disagreed with the government line?Plato_Says said:I've met Richard too. Throwing insults at other Tory members doesn't impress me.
MaxPB said:
Richard I have met and know is a party man, you I'm sure are just a CCHQ bot who, in the event of a government announcement that all people with the username "flightpath01" be publicly flogged, would be supportive.flightpath01 said:
No he had to undo them because they got voted out in the Lords. As I understand it under Universal Credit, they come in a few years down the line anyway, just in time for an election.MaxPB said:
I was of the same mind but the November statement proved otherwise. He undid a lot of the unpopular cuts because they would dent his leadership ambitions as the chancellor pushing them through.SimonStClare said:Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.
{Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.
Do you want to change your mind?
I do, Richard does and so do all of the other Tory members on here. Loads of Labour members disagree with their party line as well. I have never seen flightpath deviate from the Tory party line. He is an astroturfer.
Edit: If you thought I was insulting Richard then you are mistaken, I was just pointing out that I know he is a real person who does take the party line more often than not.0 -
Is it his IIRC affair that's caused this? It doesn't bother me much.Tissue_Price said:
Yes I have written Halfon off now. Hunt was at a very juicy price and there is a long way to go yet in this BMA dispute. Javid was a pre-election punt on the calculation that Osborne might not want it; I think it's pretty clear that he does now! May can certainly win in the manner you suggest.TCPoliticalBetting said:Interesting betting article from TP. Halfon is a wasted bet. Very damaged goods. Hunt also looks to be damaged goods. Javid has no presence. The way for May to win is if she declares for Leave and does it at the first opportunity.
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LOLDavidL said:Anyone who thinks for a moment that Osborne might not be euro-sceptic enough or some sort of a push over in respect of City interests really should watch this video: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/8878738/George-Osborne-attacks-Tobin-tax.html
This is from 4 years ago and this was him speaking at a Fincom, something that is not usually not recorded. I personally would not want to be on the other side of a negotiation with this man. He is formidable.
your description of of GO as a kind of Mandelson is nearer the mark. Though he's not quite as good. Like Mandelson he will never get the top job as he just pisses too many people off for his own good.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12092603/As-Labours-attack-on-the-BBC-proves-the-internet-is-empowering-the-dangerously-thick.htmlScott_P said:What is the internet's greatest contribution to society? The spread of knowledge? Freedom of expression and communication? Free markets of empowered consumers and competitive suppliers? Pictures of naked ladies?
They all deserve a mention. But my vote goes to making sure idiots no longer feel alone. The internet, the apex of human technical and intellectual achievement, means that no matter how dim-witted you are, no matter how fundamentally stupid your ideas are, you can always find someone who thinks the same way and can tell you that you're right.
Excellent. If a little close to home.0 -
Mr. P, not just the entertainingly thick, but the dangerously stupid too. Such as people who think Muslims in the UK get the same treatment as the Jews did under Hitler.0
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I get the feeling the PM might not be too happy if he did that. I think Osborne would be minded to do that, or pledge to do that in the leadership election, cut the GDP contribution to 0.5% and top up the defence budget to 2.2%, or shift the MoD's development spending to DfID entirely.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he really wanted to court popularity he'd slash the international aid budget and give it to the armed forces.MaxPB said:
Vice versa for the public though. IMO he seems to be gambling on being more credible than his opponent as a potential PM.Richard_Nabavi said:
If Osborne was courting popularity amongst party members, he'd prioritise the armed forces over the police.MaxPB said:Then surely reversing cuts to the armed forces would be a priority, yet we are still cutting down on active infantry.
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A wonderful choice of photo to follow (I am sure entirely by coincidence) this bit:Scott_P said:
That article is essential readingDavidL said:Excellent. If a little close to home.
The internet connects all those tinfoil hats; people whose daftness would once have isolated them are now part of a group, a community, and sometimes a movement.0 -
http://order-order.com/2016/01/11/i-khant-read-sadiqs-radical-politics/
RACCCCCIAAALLLLIIIISSSTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT...Going to here that cry every day until polling day now. Trying to close down and reshape the debate, telling your opponent you can't use a perfectly normal word.0 -
I think he's a great number two, and never thought he would put himself forward for the top job, but I think he's decided to see if he can give it a go and will give it his all. He has Cameron's backing, and despite being in post for years, only in the last year has he even really seemed a contender, and that too may fade depending on how badly he misses his economic targets, but even if he once resigned himself to not being cut out for the top job, I think he does want it now. He's incredibly young for someone who now has near 6 years experience as Chancellor (and a very influential one thanks to his good relationship with Cameron), so why not chance his arm?SimonStClare said:Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.
{Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.0 -
I've just had a similar experience on Twitter with a Corbynista. I was very polite, pointed out some uncomfortable facts and was then called a fat, mummies boy.
I noted that I'm female, slim and my mother is long dead. He blocked me.
The level of debate is non existent. It's toddler world.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, not just the entertainingly thick, but the dangerously stupid too. Such as people who think Muslims in the UK get the same treatment as the Jews did under Hitler.
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What they aren't? Moazzam Begg is touring our universities telling kids that is the case.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, not just the entertainingly thick, but the dangerously stupid too. Such as people who think Muslims in the UK get the same treatment as the Jews did under Hitler.
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Miss Plato, quite.
Whilst it's nice being able to just click idiots away, it also means self-selecting social circles are easily created and maintained, where ideas only ever get agreed with, and the concept of persuading other people or of being persuaded is theoretical only.
I know PBers rarely concede ground or change their mind (it remains a slightly proud moment when I persuaded someone using balance of taxation powers that we need an English Parliament) but there is generally engagement.0 -
This is the whole debate about "safe spaces" in the US going on right now. Some on the left believe that certain groups should have safe spaces on US college campuses to "debate" ideas (furiously agree with each other) while some on the right think that the safe spaces are the first step to stifling freedom of expression and that people shouldn't be cosseted from discussion even if it is critical or even insulting. It isn't a right/left issue entirely though, Obama came out against safe spaces and said they are bad for education and freedom.Plato_Says said:I've just had a similar experience on Twitter with a Corbynista. I was very polite, pointed out some uncomfortable facts and was then called a fat, mummies boy.
I noted that I'm female, slim and my mother is long dead. He blocked me.
The level of debate is non existent. It's toddler world.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, not just the entertainingly thick, but the dangerously stupid too. Such as people who think Muslims in the UK get the same treatment as the Jews did under Hitler.
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Appointing someone with so little legal experience shows how there is next to no talent left on the Labour benches willing to serve.Scott_P said:@PSbook: As we predicted, Karl Turner gets nod as Labour's shadow attorney general. So who to replace him in #2 role. Rebecca Long-Bailey?
The AG has a vital role to play in the life of the nation as a senior law officer - someone with less than 5 years legal work experience is not fit for purpose. Even as a shadow AG.0 -
@JoeMurphyLondon: Three Tube strikes confirmed. In other news, Titanic sets sail and there's an incident on a bridge in Sarajevo https://t.co/jY24Q4ejtk0
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Mr. Urquhart, some people hunt for and cling to grievance the way frisky, but lonely, fellows accumulate pornography.
Except enthusiastic onanists **** nobody but themselves, of course.
It's much like motivation for the gym, or work, or drawing an Egyptian style depiction of a fictional character. Search for a reason to avoid something, or to do something, and you'll find it. Convince yourself the West is oppressing you/your people, and you'll find it.0 -
"he graduated with a law degree as a mature student from the University of Hull in 2004. He became a barrister in 2005 after passing the Bar Vocational Course at Northumbria University and went on to practise criminal law for the Max Gold Partnership in Hull"oxfordsimon said:
Appointing someone with so little legal experience shows how there is next to no talent left on the Labour benches willing to serve.Scott_P said:@PSbook: As we predicted, Karl Turner gets nod as Labour's shadow attorney general. So who to replace him in #2 role. Rebecca Long-Bailey?
The AG has a vital role to play in the life of the nation as a senior law officer - someone with less than 5 years legal work experience is not fit for purpose. Even as a shadow AG.
Stellar expertise and experience. Just what we need to be able to be to understand the ins and outs of what is incredibly complex job.0 -
You're not the only one- I think Osborne understands his strengths and weaknesses- unlike Gordon- and that he'd be much happier as kingmaker. I can see him rallying around an anyone but Theresa candidate- and would be more than happy supporting BorisSandpit said:
I agree. I think he's the Mandleson sort rather than the Brown sort.SimonStClare said:Am I the only one who thinks Osborne will never be party leader or that he even wants the Job? - He’s a backroom bod and knows it, he may even follow the PM out the door when he leaves.
{Edit} Cheers for an interesting thread Mr Price.
Also Boris has no chance - he may be an affable chap and good as Mayor of London, but neither the MPs nor the members will elect a clown with a bunch of skeletons to be the PM.0 -
This is Zac's big chance. He has to paint Khan as being in the pockets of the Corbyn and the unions. Zac needs to goad Khan into responding, either he is against organised Labour and the freedom to withhold it or he is for the strikes that will damage London's economy irritate millions of Londoners. If he is the former then he will lose support from the Labour base, if he is the latter then he will suffer in outer London.Scott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Three Tube strikes confirmed. In other news, Titanic sets sail and there's an incident on a bridge in Sarajevo https://t.co/jY24Q4ejtk
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Classic Boris. I don't really approve of his turn of phrase, but it's effective. http://www.cityam.com/232099/tube-strikes-2016-london-mayor-boris-johnson-and-zac-goldsmith-slam-sadiq-khan-over-union-support
Johnson said investment in London transport would be "put in peril" if Sadiq Khan becomes Mayor, adding: "He is a tool of ASLEF. He emanates from the bowels of the unions."
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If Starmer doesn't get Shadow Solicitor General then we must assume he turned down a position (AG or SG).oxfordsimon said:
Appointing someone with so little legal experience shows how there is next to no talent left on the Labour benches willing to serve.Scott_P said:@PSbook: As we predicted, Karl Turner gets nod as Labour's shadow attorney general. So who to replace him in #2 role. Rebecca Long-Bailey?
The AG has a vital role to play in the life of the nation as a senior law officer - someone with less than 5 years legal work experience is not fit for purpose. Even as a shadow AG.0 -
Quite.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If Starmer doesn't get Shadow Solicitor General then we must assume he turned down a position (AG or SG).oxfordsimon said:
Appointing someone with so little legal experience shows how there is next to no talent left on the Labour benches willing to serve.Scott_P said:@PSbook: As we predicted, Karl Turner gets nod as Labour's shadow attorney general. So who to replace him in #2 role. Rebecca Long-Bailey?
The AG has a vital role to play in the life of the nation as a senior law officer - someone with less than 5 years legal work experience is not fit for purpose. Even as a shadow AG.0 -
I agree, Zac has to get him refusing to condemn, etc.MaxPB said:
This is Zac's big chance. He has to paint Khan as being in the pockets of the Corbyn and the unions. Zac needs to goad Khan into responding, either he is against organised Labour and the freedom to withhold it or he is for the strikes that will damage London's economy irritate millions of Londoners. If he is the former then he will lose support from the Labour base, if he is the latter then he will suffer in outer London.Scott_P said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Three Tube strikes confirmed. In other news, Titanic sets sail and there's an incident on a bridge in Sarajevo https://t.co/jY24Q4ejtk
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@jessbrammar: UK Communist Party call for Lab to take Leave side in EU Ref as "platform for arguing alternative to Tory austerity" https://t.co/U0n8YEbhJ20
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I am sure his opinion on the legality of Labour's next war will be compelling.FrancisUrquhart said:
"he graduated with a law degree as a mature student from the University of Hull in 2004. He became a barrister in 2005 after passing the Bar Vocational Course at Northumbria University and went on to practise criminal law for the Max Gold Partnership in Hull"oxfordsimon said:
Appointing someone with so little legal experience shows how there is next to no talent left on the Labour benches willing to serve.Scott_P said:@PSbook: As we predicted, Karl Turner gets nod as Labour's shadow attorney general. So who to replace him in #2 role. Rebecca Long-Bailey?
The AG has a vital role to play in the life of the nation as a senior law officer - someone with less than 5 years legal work experience is not fit for purpose. Even as a shadow AG.
Stellar expertise and experience. Just what we need to be able to be to understand the ins and outs of what is incredibly complex job.0 -
This is Zac's big chance.
Interesting they didn't wait until after June to walk out.0 -
You would at least hope he was offered that role to turn down, rather than just giving it to somebody from Northumberland poly with zero experience.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If Starmer doesn't get Shadow Solicitor General then we must assume he turned down a position (AG or SG).oxfordsimon said:
Appointing someone with so little legal experience shows how there is next to no talent left on the Labour benches willing to serve.Scott_P said:@PSbook: As we predicted, Karl Turner gets nod as Labour's shadow attorney general. So who to replace him in #2 role. Rebecca Long-Bailey?
The AG has a vital role to play in the life of the nation as a senior law officer - someone with less than 5 years legal work experience is not fit for purpose. Even as a shadow AG.0 -
That's good - reminds people there is a Communist Party (is UK Communitst Party not the same as the Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist)?), and so all of Corbyn's views appear less extreme.Scott_P said:@jessbrammar: UK Communist Party call for Lab to take Leave side in EU Ref as "platform for arguing alternative to Tory austerity" https://t.co/U0n8YEbhJ2
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This is just so bizarre and grimly funny. WTF are Labour doing?!
Scott_P said:@jessbrammar: UK Communist Party call for Lab to take Leave side in EU Ref as "platform for arguing alternative to Tory austerity" https://t.co/U0n8YEbhJ2
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Twitter is a safe space for all manner of daftness. It's even more disappointing to realise that it's a home for the stupid AND lazy.
Slacktivism is on the increase - petition this, like that, down-vote the other job done, time to lay down my SJW credentials for the day etc.
I suppose I should be grateful. As Moltke said, it's only the stupid and energetic that are truly dangerous.0 -
@robertshrimsley: When you have to explain this to people, you have already lost https://t.co/YfPJmNbJGT0
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Well, there is an argument to say he should start as a law minister for ministerial experience. Hence waiting until shadow SG is announced.FrancisUrquhart said:
You would at least hope he was offered that role to turn down, rather than just giving it to somebody from Northumberland poly with zero experience.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If Starmer doesn't get Shadow Solicitor General then we must assume he turned down a position (AG or SG).oxfordsimon said:
Appointing someone with so little legal experience shows how there is next to no talent left on the Labour benches willing to serve.Scott_P said:@PSbook: As we predicted, Karl Turner gets nod as Labour's shadow attorney general. So who to replace him in #2 role. Rebecca Long-Bailey?
The AG has a vital role to play in the life of the nation as a senior law officer - someone with less than 5 years legal work experience is not fit for purpose. Even as a shadow AG.0 -
I'd suggest 99.99% of the population had no idea there's still a Communist Party here. Jezza has given new life to them and the Morning Star.
Beyond weird. I never expected this on May 8th.kle4 said:
That's good - reminds people there is a Communist Party (is UK Communitst Party not the same as the Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist)?), and so all of Corbyn's views appear less extreme.Scott_P said:@jessbrammar: UK Communist Party call for Lab to take Leave side in EU Ref as "platform for arguing alternative to Tory austerity" https://t.co/U0n8YEbhJ2
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I think the job is his for the taking. But does he want it? I am not completely convinced about that although his tune has changed a bit since Cameron confirmed he was going.Alanbrooke said:
LOLDavidL said:Anyone who thinks for a moment that Osborne might not be euro-sceptic enough or some sort of a push over in respect of City interests really should watch this video: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/8878738/George-Osborne-attacks-Tobin-tax.html
This is from 4 years ago and this was him speaking at a Fincom, something that is not usually not recorded. I personally would not want to be on the other side of a negotiation with this man. He is formidable.
your description of of GO as a kind of Mandelson is nearer the mark. Though he's not quite as good. Like Mandelson he will never get the top job as he just pisses too many people off for his own good.
There was a bit I recall in Lawson's truly outstanding book "the view from No. 11" where he said the fact he was never considered a possible replacement for Maggie weakened him in negotiations within the party. I have no doubt Osborne will be aware of the observation and he may just be acting accordingly to ensure power does not drain away prematurely. But he has already done a serious shift and he may have had enough.0 -
I am surprised there is even a debate about this. A university which shies away from critical thinking is not a university but a dinner party.MaxPB said:
This is the whole debate about "safe spaces" in the US going on right now. Some on the left believe that certain groups should have safe spaces on US college campuses to "debate" ideas (furiously agree with each other) while some on the right think that the safe spaces are the first step to stifling freedom of expression and that people shouldn't be cosseted from discussion even if it is critical or even insulting. It isn't a right/left issue entirely though, Obama came out against safe spaces and said they are bad for education and freedom.Plato_Says said:I've just had a similar experience on Twitter with a Corbynista. I was very polite, pointed out some uncomfortable facts and was then called a fat, mummies boy.
I noted that I'm female, slim and my mother is long dead. He blocked me.
The level of debate is non existent. It's toddler world.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, not just the entertainingly thick, but the dangerously stupid too. Such as people who think Muslims in the UK get the same treatment as the Jews did under Hitler.
"Space safes" are the "intellectual" equivalent of those plastic corners you put on tables to stop your toddler poking his eye out when he falls. They are not necessary for adults.
Anyone demanding a "safe space" reveals themselves to be a baby. Usually a baby shrieking and spitting out their dummy. But a baby nonetheless. They should be gently told that we - the grown ups - will pay attention to them when - and only when - they have grown up.
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