politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What all CON ministers have been wanting: A definitive guid

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited January 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What all CON ministers have been wanting: A definitive guide to where party voters stand on the EURef

The other big political development this week has been the move to allow CON ministers to speak out on either side in the EU referendum campaign. Some of them, no doubt, will consult the polls to see how their general elections voters are viewing thinfs.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,625
    edited January 2016
    First,like Corbyn at PMQs
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,597
    Laura K conclusion to report on BBC1 6pm News:

    "Whilst the Party is really still struggling to come to terms with itself, it's hard to see how they [Labour] are going to be able to present anything convincing to the general public"

    Hard to be much more damning than that - from the good old BBC!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,656
    Oh, for goodness sake. That's like pin a tail on a sodding donkey.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    edited January 2016
    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Charles said:

    flightpath01 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    taffys said:

    Its interesting that the MSM is catching on to Cologne today, well behind us on PB.

    I think it is becoming too big an issue to ignore.
    The BBC were covering it yesterday as I think were newspapers. Its only just been covered in the German press.
    The BBC say there is trouble with large gangs of men in the same place every new years eve for several years. The issue is usually robbery. This year was clearly worse and the clear question is why were there not more police.
    The issue of the way women should conduct themselves has erupted because of a remark by the mayor of Cologne and as far as I can see everyone has quite rightly jumped on him.

    The BBC also give a report of a woman having a firework thrown into her hoodie. Another group of women being harassed and 'groped' by a gang of 30 men. Women have clearly been targeted but the emotive issue of rape which is exercising everyone is not yet clear. There seems to be a clear conclusion (or accusation) that well, mass rapes have been taking place. But the reporting does not justify this.
    It was on local radio in Socal this morning
    The funny thing is that by treating it as a scary story (what if everyone in Germany rejoins the NSDAP???? Must bury story!!!!!) rather than dealing with the issue it is making the problem much worse.

    The issue is quite simple. In much of the globe, societies are much less advanced in dealing with womens rights, religious right, gay right etc. This leads to the following options -

    1) Immigrants need to be educated to respect local laws and customs.
    2) Immigrants need to be filtered for those who will respect local laws and customs.
    3) Give up on womens rights, gay rights etc.
    4) No immigrants.

    Personally I am in favour of a mix of 1 & 2.
    I'd be 2 and 4. 1 doesn't work very well with Muslim immigrants and 3 absolutely is out of the question. Far fewer immigrants and then those who do come need to be stringently tested for cultural values and to pass a spoken and written English exam. Exceptions given to people of extreme necessity, i.e. this Japanese guy needs to run the nuclear power station and there is no one in the UK who can do it, but he doesn't speak English very well.
    Yes I agree - No immigrants!

    Happy to drive you to Heathrow so you can piss you from here!

    Tw*t!!
    Great grandparents - British citizens
    Grandparents - British citizens
    Parents - British citizens

    Hmm...

    Another Labour supporter more concerned with harvesting Muslim votes than keeping our country safe from terrorists and rapists who have infested the rest of Europe.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    https://twitter.com/JWoodcockMP/status/684803247475933184
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    david_herdson said:

    Oh, for goodness sake. That's like pin a tail on a sodding donkey.

    Not to mention that several ministers will be far more interested in how the party members will vote.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Labour PLP are now beyond ferrets in a sack as descriptions go.

    what would be more apt do we think?

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,661
    MikeL said:

    Laura K conclusion to report on BBC1 6pm News:

    "Whilst the Party is really still struggling to come to terms with itself, it's hard to see how they [Labour] are going to be able to present anything convincing to the general public"

    Hard to be much more damning than that - from the good old BBC!

    Laura Kuenssberg is becoming really quite good as a political commentator. A PB poster-girl of the future!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    St Hodges donations page for his naked run is proving entertaining...

    I believe in you as much as you believe in me x
    Donation by Jeremy Corbyn £ 2.00
    on 06-01-2016 £ 0.50 gift aid

    https://mydonate.bt.com/fundraisers/danhodges
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Tbh, it's polls like this which make me question why people think the Referendum is going to "settle the issue once and for all" for the party.

    A very plausible scenario (arguably the most likely) is that the country as a whole will vote to stay In by a slender-ish margin (say 55-45), but that a majority of Tory voters will vote Out. In such a scenario, would there not be a strong case for the Tories to go onto a committed Outer path (and get a new leader to match) in the name of maintaining their voters?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited January 2016
    Tissue_Price said:

    david_herdson said:

    Oh, for goodness sake. That's like pin a tail on a sodding donkey.

    Not to mention that several ministers will be far more interested in how the party members will vote.
    Yes, but a prospective Outer Tory leader would help their case further if they could point to polls saying "the majority of Tory voters agree with me".
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,656
    Danny565 said:

    Tbh, it's polls like this which make me question why people think the Referendum is going to "settle the issue once and for all" for the party.

    A very plausible scenario (arguably the most likely) is that the country as a whole will vote to stay In by a slender-ish margin (say 55-45), but that a majority of Tory voters will vote Out. In such a scenario, would there not be a strong case for the Tories to go onto a committed Outer path (and get a new leader to match) in the name of maintaining their voters?

    If it's a close Remain then no, it won't shut down the issue either in the party or in the country. On the other hand, if it's a fairly decisive Remain, or any kind of Leave, then it will.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    http://hurryupharry.org/2016/01/06/corbyns-reshuffle/

    Look at the video's

    beggars belief that any rational person would want to be associated with these vile people.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Omnium said:

    MikeL said:

    Laura K conclusion to report on BBC1 6pm News:

    "Whilst the Party is really still struggling to come to terms with itself, it's hard to see how they [Labour] are going to be able to present anything convincing to the general public"

    Hard to be much more damning than that - from the good old BBC!

    Laura Kuenssberg is becoming really quite good as a political commentator. A PB poster-girl of the future!
    I only disagree to the extent that she's been excellent for a long while.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Wanderer said:

    Omnium said:

    MikeL said:

    Laura K conclusion to report on BBC1 6pm News:

    "Whilst the Party is really still struggling to come to terms with itself, it's hard to see how they [Labour] are going to be able to present anything convincing to the general public"

    Hard to be much more damning than that - from the good old BBC!

    Laura Kuenssberg is becoming really quite good as a political commentator. A PB poster-girl of the future!
    I only disagree to the extent that she's been excellent for a long while.
    A very long while, at least 3 jobs ago in fact.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    Omnium said:

    MikeL said:

    Laura K conclusion to report on BBC1 6pm News:

    "Whilst the Party is really still struggling to come to terms with itself, it's hard to see how they [Labour] are going to be able to present anything convincing to the general public"

    Hard to be much more damning than that - from the good old BBC!

    Laura Kuenssberg is becoming really quite good as a political commentator. A PB poster-girl of the future!
    She always was good but is showing signs of becoming one of the outstanding political commentators in the media
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    In the late 1970s, a Cambridge University economist (as in a lecturer) predicted that North Korea and South Korea would merge by 2000, with the successful North absorbing the failing capitalist South.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    david_herdson said:

    Danny565 said:

    Tbh, it's polls like this which make me question why people think the Referendum is going to "settle the issue once and for all" for the party.

    A very plausible scenario (arguably the most likely) is that the country as a whole will vote to stay In by a slender-ish margin (say 55-45), but that a majority of Tory voters will vote Out. In such a scenario, would there not be a strong case for the Tories to go onto a committed Outer path (and get a new leader to match) in the name of maintaining their voters?

    If it's a close Remain then no, it won't shut down the issue either in the party or in the country. On the other hand, if it's a fairly decisive Remain, or any kind of Leave, then it will.
    A decisive Remain would represent an extraordinary failure by the Leave caucus.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,661
    Danny565 said:

    Tbh, it's polls like this which make me question why people think the Referendum is going to "settle the issue once and for all" for the party.

    A very plausible scenario (arguably the most likely) is that the country as a whole will vote to stay In by a slender-ish margin (say 55-45), but that a majority of Tory voters will vote Out. In such a scenario, would there not be a strong case for the Tories to go onto a committed Outer path (and get a new leader to match) in the name of maintaining their voters?

    Happily we'll never know the split by party.

    If we vote "remain" our future lies with Europe, and otherwise if "leave". I don't think there will be much quibbling after the result in Tory ranks. It'll be better for all concerned if Scotland votes the same way as the rest of the UK. It seems likely that the split there will be announced.

  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    In the late 1970s, a Cambridge University economist (as in a lecturer) predicted that North Korea and South Korea would merge by 2000, with the successful North absorbing the failing capitalist South.
    Is there a name to go with that? It's delicious.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,855
    Netflix are launching in some new countries. 130 new countries! Absolutely huge expansion, they say that it triples their potential audience.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    Violence, extreme violence leading to abject fear.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    david_herdson said:

    Danny565 said:

    Tbh, it's polls like this which make me question why people think the Referendum is going to "settle the issue once and for all" for the party.

    A very plausible scenario (arguably the most likely) is that the country as a whole will vote to stay In by a slender-ish margin (say 55-45), but that a majority of Tory voters will vote Out. In such a scenario, would there not be a strong case for the Tories to go onto a committed Outer path (and get a new leader to match) in the name of maintaining their voters?

    If it's a close Remain then no, it won't shut down the issue either in the party or in the country. On the other hand, if it's a fairly decisive Remain, or any kind of Leave, then it will.
    What happens if it's a tie: 11,234,567 vs 11,234,567?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    In the late 1970s, a Cambridge University economist (as in a lecturer) predicted that North Korea and South Korea would merge by 2000, with the successful North absorbing the failing capitalist South.
    Priceless!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Some rare co-ordination by Labour today....

    Guido Fawkes ✔ @GuidoFawkes
    On @Channel4 @KevanJonesMP just called on @EmilyThornberry to return £14,500 received from lawyers suing soldiers http://guyfawk.es/1PekdZk

    Matthew Harris @hattmarris84
    On the Emily Thornberry donation row, John Mann told LBC: "I'm sure she'll pay that back so that those allegation of bias cant be there."

    Matthew Harris @hattmarris84
    When told by @IainDale that the donation received by Thornberry was £14,500, Mann replied: "I imagine Emily could probably afford it"
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    HurstLlama said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    Violence, extreme violence leading to abject fear.
    Absolutely dreadful. Presumably even China will eventually get fed up of this cold sore on their flank, and major powers can ensure the system is replaced?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    Brilliant article:

    "I hate to break it to feminists, but ‘white male privilege’ is a myth — Brendan O'Neill"

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/i-hate-to-break-it-to-feminists-but-white-male-privilege-is-a-myth/
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,661
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Wanderer said:

    Omnium said:

    MikeL said:

    Laura K conclusion to report on BBC1 6pm News:

    "Whilst the Party is really still struggling to come to terms with itself, it's hard to see how they [Labour] are going to be able to present anything convincing to the general public"

    Hard to be much more damning than that - from the good old BBC!

    Laura Kuenssberg is becoming really quite good as a political commentator. A PB poster-girl of the future!
    I only disagree to the extent that she's been excellent for a long while.
    A very long while, at least 3 jobs ago in fact.
    Well apologies to you guys and Big_G. for being late to the club. More particularly apologies to LK for not recognizing her talents earlier. Anyway I have now, and I look forward to a slightly more informed 2016 than otherwise under her influence.

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,656
    Wanderer said:

    david_herdson said:

    Danny565 said:

    Tbh, it's polls like this which make me question why people think the Referendum is going to "settle the issue once and for all" for the party.

    A very plausible scenario (arguably the most likely) is that the country as a whole will vote to stay In by a slender-ish margin (say 55-45), but that a majority of Tory voters will vote Out. In such a scenario, would there not be a strong case for the Tories to go onto a committed Outer path (and get a new leader to match) in the name of maintaining their voters?

    If it's a close Remain then no, it won't shut down the issue either in the party or in the country. On the other hand, if it's a fairly decisive Remain, or any kind of Leave, then it will.
    A decisive Remain would represent an extraordinary failure by the Leave caucus.
    At the moment, I can see quite a wide range of results as possible from a 2:1 Remain to a 3:2 Leave.

    Leave's ability to organise themselves is such that they could learn from the Judean Peoples' parties. It's quite possible that this referendum could go the way of the 1975 one, with all the unpopular politicians lining up for, and contradicting each other about, Leave. On the other hand, the EU is unpopular and European politicians seem intent on making it or them - which for these purposes comes close to amounting to the same thing - still more so.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    rcs1000 said:

    david_herdson said:

    Danny565 said:

    Tbh, it's polls like this which make me question why people think the Referendum is going to "settle the issue once and for all" for the party.

    A very plausible scenario (arguably the most likely) is that the country as a whole will vote to stay In by a slender-ish margin (say 55-45), but that a majority of Tory voters will vote Out. In such a scenario, would there not be a strong case for the Tories to go onto a committed Outer path (and get a new leader to match) in the name of maintaining their voters?

    If it's a close Remain then no, it won't shut down the issue either in the party or in the country. On the other hand, if it's a fairly decisive Remain, or any kind of Leave, then it will.
    What happens if it's a tie: 11,234,567 vs 11,234,567?
    The Queen breaks the tie.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,656
    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    Extreme repression buttressed by popular ignorance.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    On topic, I'd expect ministers to be more concerned with:

    * what they themselves actually think
    * what Tory members think (if you have an eye to the leadership)

    Chasing the opinion of voters on this will only lead you to the conclusion that support is more or less evenly split so you are no further forward.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,656
    rcs1000 said:

    david_herdson said:

    Danny565 said:

    Tbh, it's polls like this which make me question why people think the Referendum is going to "settle the issue once and for all" for the party.

    A very plausible scenario (arguably the most likely) is that the country as a whole will vote to stay In by a slender-ish margin (say 55-45), but that a majority of Tory voters will vote Out. In such a scenario, would there not be a strong case for the Tories to go onto a committed Outer path (and get a new leader to match) in the name of maintaining their voters?

    If it's a close Remain then no, it won't shut down the issue either in the party or in the country. On the other hand, if it's a fairly decisive Remain, or any kind of Leave, then it will.
    What happens if it's a tie: 11,234,567 vs 11,234,567?
    We have a recount.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Omnium said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Wanderer said:

    Omnium said:

    MikeL said:

    Laura K conclusion to report on BBC1 6pm News:

    "Whilst the Party is really still struggling to come to terms with itself, it's hard to see how they [Labour] are going to be able to present anything convincing to the general public"

    Hard to be much more damning than that - from the good old BBC!

    Laura Kuenssberg is becoming really quite good as a political commentator. A PB poster-girl of the future!
    I only disagree to the extent that she's been excellent for a long while.
    A very long while, at least 3 jobs ago in fact.
    Well apologies to you guys and Big_G. for being late to the club. More particularly apologies to LK for not recognizing her talents earlier. Anyway I have now, and I look forward to a slightly more informed 2016 than otherwise under her influence.

    You are forgiven. More joy in heaven and all that ;)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    Brilliant article:

    "I hate to break it to feminists, but ‘white male privilege’ is a myth — Brendan O'Neill"

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/i-hate-to-break-it-to-feminists-but-white-male-privilege-is-a-myth/

    White male tells feminists that white male privilege is a myth does seem to have an element of self-interest about it!
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    In the late 1970s, a Cambridge University economist (as in a lecturer) predicted that North Korea and South Korea would merge by 2000, with the successful North absorbing the failing capitalist South.
    Joan Robinson?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    Mortimer said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    Violence, extreme violence leading to abject fear.
    Absolutely dreadful. Presumably even China will eventually get fed up of this cold sore on their flank, and major powers can ensure the system is replaced?
    I believe China have two separate fears: The NK system failing and millions of people crossing over to China, and of a US presence right on their border.

    They will do little IMO until the threat by the NK regime outweighs those two fears, or those two fears can be guarded against.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    R5 report on German story is now down to "large groups of men"....

    I think that is bloody sexist...should be large groups of people...actually no that is people-ist...large groups of things..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    glw said:

    Netflix are launching in some new countries. 130 new countries! Absolutely huge expansion, they say that it triples their potential audience.

    Crickey, their lawyers must have been working hard to get all the distribution deals done for that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited January 2016
    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    What do you mean, they have got Red Star OS, its like Mac OSX +++ ;-)

    The security people who pulled Red Star apart were genuinely impressed by some of the coding / ideas. Said it was better than what is standard in a lot of commercial applications.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    JosiasJessop said:

    Mortimer said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    Violence, extreme violence leading to abject fear.
    Absolutely dreadful. Presumably even China will eventually get fed up of this cold sore on their flank, and major powers can ensure the system is replaced?
    I believe China have two separate fears: The NK system failing and millions of people crossing over to China, and of a US presence right on their border.

    They will do little IMO until the threat by the NK regime outweighs those two fears, or those two fears can be guarded against.
    So presumably as Chinese consumer economy and armed power grows, NK would become more unacceptable.

    If capitalism forced China into acting against NK....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    In the late 1970s, a Cambridge University economist (as in a lecturer) predicted that North Korea and South Korea would merge by 2000, with the successful North absorbing the failing capitalist South.
    Joan Robinson?
    You, sir, are a star. It was indeed Joan Robinson. See: http://knowledgeproblem.com/2011/02/08/joan-robinson-on-the-two-koreas-in-1977/
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2016
    WTI crude now $33.83, Brent down more than 6% today:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    david_herdson said:

    Wanderer said:

    david_herdson said:

    Danny565 said:

    Tbh, it's polls like this which make me question why people think the Referendum is going to "settle the issue once and for all" for the party.

    A very plausible scenario (arguably the most likely) is that the country as a whole will vote to stay In by a slender-ish margin (say 55-45), but that a majority of Tory voters will vote Out. In such a scenario, would there not be a strong case for the Tories to go onto a committed Outer path (and get a new leader to match) in the name of maintaining their voters?

    If it's a close Remain then no, it won't shut down the issue either in the party or in the country. On the other hand, if it's a fairly decisive Remain, or any kind of Leave, then it will.
    A decisive Remain would represent an extraordinary failure by the Leave caucus.
    At the moment, I can see quite a wide range of results as possible from a 2:1 Remain to a 3:2 Leave.

    Leave's ability to organise themselves is such that they could learn from the Judean Peoples' parties. It's quite possible that this referendum could go the way of the 1975 one, with all the unpopular politicians lining up for, and contradicting each other about, Leave. On the other hand, the EU is unpopular and European politicians seem intent on making it or them - which for these purposes comes close to amounting to the same thing - still more so.
    I think that's a good assessment.

    I think that of those factors the long-term, deep unpopularity of the EU is most likely to be the decisive one. It's the only one that cannot be removed. Leave might get its act together, the rest of the EU might help out Dave with a nice package, but that underlying distrust won't go away.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    david_herdson said:

    Danny565 said:

    Tbh, it's polls like this which make me question why people think the Referendum is going to "settle the issue once and for all" for the party.

    A very plausible scenario (arguably the most likely) is that the country as a whole will vote to stay In by a slender-ish margin (say 55-45), but that a majority of Tory voters will vote Out. In such a scenario, would there not be a strong case for the Tories to go onto a committed Outer path (and get a new leader to match) in the name of maintaining their voters?

    If it's a close Remain then no, it won't shut down the issue either in the party or in the country. On the other hand, if it's a fairly decisive Remain, or any kind of Leave, then it will.
    What happens if it's a tie: 11,234,567 vs 11,234,567?
    The Queen breaks the tie.
    Does she get a vote in the referendum?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    What do you mean, they have got Red Star OS, its like Mac OSX +++ ;-)

    The security people who pulled Red Star apart were genuinely impressed by some of the coding / ideas. Said it was better than what is standard in a lot of commercial applications.
    There was an (alleged) version online you could install. From the user standpoint a very crap Linux distro. I remember being told that it used the term "Pyongyang Fortress" for firewall but I don't know if that's true. It's stuck with me though and I still use that term myself, much to people's confusion.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    rcs1000 said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    In the late 1970s, a Cambridge University economist (as in a lecturer) predicted that North Korea and South Korea would merge by 2000, with the successful North absorbing the failing capitalist South.
    Joan Robinson?
    You, sir, are a star. It was indeed Joan Robinson. See: http://knowledgeproblem.com/2011/02/08/joan-robinson-on-the-two-koreas-in-1977/
    Thanks both. Most entertaining factoid.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    The fairly tragic (for many people) story of Kim Hyon-hui is worth considering. Not only does it show the way someone can be brainwashed into committing atrocities, but also how (if you believe her) such a person can be rehabilitated.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Hyon-hui

    Also of her teacher in NK, one of the many people kidnapped from Japan:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yaeko_Taguchi

    NK is truly an evil state.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    Mortimer said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Mortimer said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    Violence, extreme violence leading to abject fear.
    Absolutely dreadful. Presumably even China will eventually get fed up of this cold sore on their flank, and major powers can ensure the system is replaced?
    I believe China have two separate fears: The NK system failing and millions of people crossing over to China, and of a US presence right on their border.

    They will do little IMO until the threat by the NK regime outweighs those two fears, or those two fears can be guarded against.
    So presumably as Chinese consumer economy and armed power grows, NK would become more unacceptable.

    If capitalism forced China into acting against NK....
    It's more about the old guard in China seeing the survival of the regime in the North as the proof of the victory that cost them and China so much.

    The younger generation of leaders are wondering the following - They manage to bring down the North without causing an apocalypse, back reunification with the South (which will be crippled by the economic cost of reunification - so Chinese cheap lending would be required) on the understanding that the US would have to leave all its bases there. This would push the US away from China and replace a US ally (South Korea) with a friendly state that could never be a threat to China...

    The problem is ending the regime n the North without setting off a war...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited January 2016
    Wanderer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    What do you mean, they have got Red Star OS, its like Mac OSX +++ ;-)

    The security people who pulled Red Star apart were genuinely impressed by some of the coding / ideas. Said it was better than what is standard in a lot of commercial applications.
    There was an (alleged) version online you could install. From the user standpoint a very crap Linux distro. I remember being told that it used the term "Pyongyang Fortress" for firewall but I don't know if that's true. It's stuck with me though and I still use that term myself, much to people's confusion.
    v3.0 is available. It is, and it isn't, a crap linux distro. It has some really interesting added features, however not the sort of added features the individual user would be interested in, more the sort of features somebody wanting to spy on an entire population would want e.g. Any file* (opened or not) that comes into contact with a computer running Red Star gets uniquely watermarked, and the watermarking is additive, so you can track the progress of files.

    *from a list of common types e.g image files, word docs, etc.

    Also, it has anti-tamper mechanisms. If you try to alter or hack the kernel files, it goes into auto-reboot and basically buggers your OS install. The guys who investigated this said without another OS it would be unbelievably hard to bypass this system.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Omnium said:

    Danny565 said:

    Tbh, it's polls like this which make me question why people think the Referendum is going to "settle the issue once and for all" for the party.

    A very plausible scenario (arguably the most likely) is that the country as a whole will vote to stay In by a slender-ish margin (say 55-45), but that a majority of Tory voters will vote Out. In such a scenario, would there not be a strong case for the Tories to go onto a committed Outer path (and get a new leader to match) in the name of maintaining their voters?

    Happily we'll never know the split by party.

    If we vote "remain" our future lies with Europe, and otherwise if "leave". I don't think there will be much quibbling after the result in Tory ranks. It'll be better for all concerned if Scotland votes the same way as the rest of the UK. It seems likely that the split there will be announced.

    We'll have a basic idea of the split by party from polls at the time, and to some extent by how Tory-voting areas split in the Ref.

    I suppose the way I see it, for a substantial chunk of the Tory party, leaving the EU is their main driving priniciple, that's surely not something they're just going to give up on - and if it's shown that a majority of Tory voters feel the same way, they'll have a good rationale for why they should keep banging on about it.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    rcs1000 said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    In the late 1970s, a Cambridge University economist (as in a lecturer) predicted that North Korea and South Korea would merge by 2000, with the successful North absorbing the failing capitalist South.
    Joan Robinson?
    You, sir, are a star. It was indeed Joan Robinson. See: http://knowledgeproblem.com/2011/02/08/joan-robinson-on-the-two-koreas-in-1977/
    Ah, she was an apologist for the Cultural Revolution too https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joan_Robinson
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Tissue_Price said:

    david_herdson said:

    Oh, for goodness sake. That's like pin a tail on a sodding donkey.

    Not to mention that several ministers will be far more interested in how the party members will vote.
    If I had to stick that pin on that donkey I'd say members would be 65/35 to Leave and Tory voters more or less split 50/50 on the day.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Casino_Royale said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    david_herdson said:

    Oh, for goodness sake. That's like pin a tail on a sodding donkey.

    Not to mention that several ministers will be far more interested in how the party members will vote.
    If I had to stick that pin on that donkey I'd say members would be 65/35 to Leave and Tory voters more or less split 50/50 on the day.
    Do you not expect Tory voters to skew more towards Leave than the public as a whole?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    edited January 2016
    Danny565 said:

    Omnium said:

    Danny565 said:

    Tbh, it's polls like this which make me question why people think the Referendum is going to "settle the issue once and for all" for the party.

    A very plausible scenario (arguably the most likely) is that the country as a whole will vote to stay In by a slender-ish margin (say 55-45), but that a majority of Tory voters will vote Out. In such a scenario, would there not be a strong case for the Tories to go onto a committed Outer path (and get a new leader to match) in the name of maintaining their voters?

    Happily we'll never know the split by party.

    If we vote "remain" our future lies with Europe, and otherwise if "leave". I don't think there will be much quibbling after the result in Tory ranks. It'll be better for all concerned if Scotland votes the same way as the rest of the UK. It seems likely that the split there will be announced.

    We'll have a basic idea of the split by party from polls at the time, and to some extent by how Tory-voting areas split in the Ref.

    I suppose the way I see it, for a substantial chunk of the Tory party, leaving the EU is their main driving priniciple, that's surely not something they're just going to give up on - and if it's shown that a majority of Tory voters feel the same way, they'll have a good rationale for why they should keep banging on about it.
    I really doubt that it's a driving principle (as opposed to mere opinion) for voters (not members). If a large chunk of Tory voters felt that way it would have to rate higher in the Ipsos MORI issues index, I think. Plus, if you are that passionately BOOish there's UKIP.

    However, I'm not sure any rationale is needed for the said banging-on.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    JosiasJessop said:

    Mortimer said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    Violence, extreme violence leading to abject fear.
    Absolutely dreadful. Presumably even China will eventually get fed up of this cold sore on their flank, and major powers can ensure the system is replaced?
    I believe China have two separate fears: The NK system failing and millions of people crossing over to China, and of a US presence right on their border.

    They will do little IMO until the threat by the NK regime outweighs those two fears, or those two fears can be guarded against.
    IVSTR reading a piece in The Economist a few years ago. According to it, one of the biggest fears was a population of c20 million suddenly needing food aid and emergency relief.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    david_herdson said:

    Wanderer said:

    david_herdson said:

    Danny565 said:

    Tbh, it's polls like this which make me question why people think the Referendum is going to "settle the issue once and for all" for the party.

    A very plausible scenario (arguably the most likely) is that the country as a whole will vote to stay In by a slender-ish margin (say 55-45), but that a majority of Tory voters will vote Out. In such a scenario, would there not be a strong case for the Tories to go onto a committed Outer path (and get a new leader to match) in the name of maintaining their voters?

    If it's a close Remain then no, it won't shut down the issue either in the party or in the country. On the other hand, if it's a fairly decisive Remain, or any kind of Leave, then it will.
    A decisive Remain would represent an extraordinary failure by the Leave caucus.
    At the moment, I can see quite a wide range of results as possible from a 2:1 Remain to a 3:2 Leave.

    Leave's ability to organise themselves is such that they could learn from the Judean Peoples' parties. It's quite possible that this referendum could go the way of the 1975 one, with all the unpopular politicians lining up for, and contradicting each other about, Leave. On the other hand, the EU is unpopular and European politicians seem intent on making it or them - which for these purposes comes close to amounting to the same thing - still more so.
    Turnout will be key. The young and graduates (and Facebook and twitter) will be overwhelmingly for Remain but it's the oldies that vote.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    No resignations since lunch. Is the reshuffle finished?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TheEconomist: For now, Corbyn is not going anywhere. That dooms Labour’s electoral prospects https://t.co/4fYduNAgBn https://t.co/JMDe2nHhYt
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    Scott_P said:

    No resignations since lunch. Is the reshuffle finished?

    Depends whether they want to catch the ten o'clock news with a new splash...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TelePolitics: No self-respecting politician could remain in Corbyn's shadow cabinet https://t.co/H3zCrwXEzJ
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited January 2016
    Evening all.

    “Now they’ve got the freedom this should help them make up their minds or not”


    Er sorry, but what is the main point of this patronising thread?


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    AlastairMeeks said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    Brilliant article:

    "I hate to break it to feminists, but ‘white male privilege’ is a myth — Brendan O'Neill"

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/i-hate-to-break-it-to-feminists-but-white-male-privilege-is-a-myth/

    White male tells feminists that white male privilege is a myth does seem to have an element of self-interest about it!
    White female tells feminists that white male privilege is a myth is a bus that is unlikely to come along any time soon...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Danny565 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    david_herdson said:

    Oh, for goodness sake. That's like pin a tail on a sodding donkey.

    Not to mention that several ministers will be far more interested in how the party members will vote.
    If I had to stick that pin on that donkey I'd say members would be 65/35 to Leave and Tory voters more or less split 50/50 on the day.
    Do you not expect Tory voters to skew more towards Leave than the public as a whole?
    Yes, but I think Cameron's recommendation will have an effect.

    Also affluent middle-class professional Tory voters aged 40-60 in London and the Southeast will tend to favour Remain.

    However, I do agree with David. We are in uncharted waters and the atmosphere is febrile. Sentiment could shift on the EU very quickly in either direction.

    Events this year could be decisive.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: Doesn't take that long - Mandelson, weighs in post reshuffle saying it puts Labour further from power, manna for Corbyn supporters
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Scott_P said:

    No resignations since lunch. Is the reshuffle finished?

    I hope so. I may be in a small minority on this site but I really am bored shitless by it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    SimonStClare said:

    Evening all.

    “Now they’ve got the freedom this should help them make up their minds or not”


    Er sorry, but what is the main point of this patronising thread?


    CON ministers uncertain which way to vote in the EU referendum will probably want solid information about what ordinary members of the party think before they make their decision, but sadly for them the information is not clear.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Rumour Keith Vaz about to join Corbyn's shadow team...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,163
    Scott_P said:

    @TelePolitics: No self-respecting politician could remain in Corbyn's shadow cabinet https://t.co/H3zCrwXEzJ

    It's weird the way that site looks these days. That's fine as an opinion column but it seems to be presented as a news piece.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Charles said:

    flightpath01 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    taffys said:

    Its interesting that the MSM is catching on to Cologne today, well behind us on PB.

    I think it is becoming too big an issue to ignore.


    The BBC also give a report of a woman having a firework thrown into her hoodie. Another group of women being harassed and 'groped' by a gang of 30 men. Women have clearly been targeted but the emotive issue of rape which is exercising everyone is not yet clear. There seems to be a clear conclusion (or accusation) that well, mass rapes have been taking place. But the reporting does not justify this.
    It was on local radio in Socal this morning
    The funny thing is that by treating it as a scary story (what if everyone in Germany rejoins the NSDAP???? Must bury story!!!!!) rather than dealing with the issue it is making the problem much worse.

    The issue is quite simple. In much of the globe, societies are much less advanced in dealing with womens rights, religious right, gay right etc. This leads to the following options -

    1) Immigrants need to be educated to respect local laws and customs.
    2) Immigrants need to be filtered for those who will respect local laws and customs.
    3) Give up on womens rights, gay rights etc.
    4) No immigrants.

    Personally I am in favour of a mix of 1 & 2.
    I'd be 2 and 4. 1 doesn't work very well with Muslim immigrants and 3 absolutely is out of the question. Far fewer immigrants and then those who do come need to be stringently tested for cultural values and to pass a spoken and written English exam. Exceptions given to people of extreme necessity, i.e. this Japanese guy needs to run the nuclear power station and there is no one in the UK who can do it, but he doesn't speak English very well.
    Yes I agree - No immigrants!

    Happy to drive you to Heathrow so you can piss you from here!

    Tw*t!!
    Great grandparents - British citizens
    Grandparents - British citizens
    Parents - British citizens

    Hmm...

    Another Labour supporter more concerned with harvesting Muslim votes than keeping our country safe from terrorists and rapists who have infested the rest of Europe.
    What have you got against Muslims that you keep on at it ?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    Malmesbury said:

    Mortimer said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Mortimer said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    Violence, extreme violence leading to abject fear.
    Absolutely dreadful. Presumably even China will eventually get fed up of this cold sore on their flank, and major powers can ensure the system is replaced?
    I believe China have two separate fears: The NK system failing and millions of people crossing over to China, and of a US presence right on their border.

    They will do little IMO until the threat by the NK regime outweighs those two fears, or those two fears can be guarded against.
    So presumably as Chinese consumer economy and armed power grows, NK would become more unacceptable.

    If capitalism forced China into acting against NK....
    It's more about the old guard in China seeing the survival of the regime in the North as the proof of the victory that cost them and China so much.

    The younger generation of leaders are wondering the following - They manage to bring down the North without causing an apocalypse, back reunification with the South (which will be crippled by the economic cost of reunification - so Chinese cheap lending would be required) on the understanding that the US would have to leave all its bases there. This would push the US away from China and replace a US ally (South Korea) with a friendly state that could never be a threat to China...

    The problem is ending the regime n the North without setting off a war...
    If I remember correctly though (it's been a long time since I read about the Korean War), didn't China only get seriously involved once the allies crossed the partition line and reached as far north as the Chinese border in 1950? Before that NK had mainly been supported by Russia rather than China, with China's help only coming because they needed Russian aid?

    I think ...

    Hence that 'victory' only came about because of their desire to keep the US from their border ...
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    edited January 2016
    ScottP...That figures.....keep all the slimeballs at the front where we can see them..it will very soon be the Shadow Cabinet of the failures..
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    kle4 said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Evening all.

    “Now they’ve got the freedom this should help them make up their minds or not”


    Er sorry, but what is the main point of this patronising thread?


    CON ministers uncertain which way to vote in the EU referendum will probably want solid information about what ordinary members of the party think before they make their decision, but sadly for them the information is not clear.
    If a clear majority of party members back Leave then that complicates Osborne's leadership ambitions. Particularly if the EU and or the deal quickly go south.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    Casino_Royale said:

    Danny565 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    david_herdson said:

    Oh, for goodness sake. That's like pin a tail on a sodding donkey.

    Not to mention that several ministers will be far more interested in how the party members will vote.
    If I had to stick that pin on that donkey I'd say members would be 65/35 to Leave and Tory voters more or less split 50/50 on the day.
    Do you not expect Tory voters to skew more towards Leave than the public as a whole?
    Yes, but I think Cameron's recommendation will have an effect.

    Also affluent middle-class professional Tory voters aged 40-60 in London and the Southeast will tend to favour Remain.

    However, I do agree with David. We are in uncharted waters and the atmosphere is febrile. Sentiment could shift on the EU very quickly in either direction.

    Events this year could be decisive.
    We have a whole summer migrant crisis to contend with, the possibility of more events like those in Germany occurring in the rest of Europe and the possibility of another demand for money from the EC.

    If the Leave side can get organised we can make it a close race and possibly edge 50-55 points in a low turn out referendum, but it will take a fair wind and ruthless dedication to a winning message.

    The people who are voting Leave because of immigration are already likely to vote leave. The argument Leave needs to make will have to be like the one Dan Hannan made in the Telegraph, there is no status quo. I said it on here a few days ago. Leave needs to get across that a vote for Remain puts us on the path to a European super state where our votes mean nothing and we have no power to control our own laws, everything will be done in Brussels by some type of autocrat who we don't get much say in picking. This argument has worked well for me in convincing people minded to vote either way, it works especially well for soft-left type IMO while people on the centre or soft-right need to be swayed by an economic argument.

    We need to show that Britain out of Europe will be more democratic and stronger economically. It means we have to swallow things like remaining in the ECHR to appease the centre left and show that the City will be fine without EU membership (we had a nice helpful intervention today from Barclays and HSBC) and we can trade freely with the rest of the world which is growing much faster than the EU.

    I think if the Leave side concentrates on immigration we will end up with about 35% of the vote and the issue will be dead for 20 years until the EU falls apart or becomes a superstate and we end up leaving.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Labour's new song: "We'll keep the white flag flying here......"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    Casino_Royale said:

    kle4 said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Evening all.

    “Now they’ve got the freedom this should help them make up their minds or not”


    Er sorry, but what is the main point of this patronising thread?


    CON ministers uncertain which way to vote in the EU referendum will probably want solid information about what ordinary members of the party think before they make their decision, but sadly for them the information is not clear.
    If a clear majority of party members back Leave then that complicates Osborne's leadership ambitions. Particularly if the EU and or the deal quickly go south.
    I also think that having a PM closely associated with Remain after a close vote is going to be difficult as anyone who was in Remain will be seen as soft on the EU and we will have pending treaty changes to ram through. A leader who is willing to call another referendum if the treaty changes are not put through may be seen as a better bet.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Hillsborough: Final Anfield memorial service in April. The final Anfield memorial service to remember 96 football fans who died at Hillsborough will take place in April.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-35236522

    I had no idea they were still doing this.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    Scott_P said:

    Rumour Keith Vaz about to join Corbyn's shadow team...

    I feel like I am in this really weird dream and that I will soon wake up and find this s##t show was all just basically like Dallas.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_P said:

    Rumour Keith Vaz about to join Corbyn's shadow team...

    I feel like I am in this really weird dream and that I will soon wake up and find this s##t show was all just basically like Dallas.
    And who will be coming out of the shower...?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    New PPP N.H poll:

    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 25m25 minutes ago
    Our NH poll- Trump 29, Rubio 15, Christie/Kasich 11, Bush/Cruz 10, Carson/Fiorina 4, Paul 3, Huckabee/Santorum 1: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/01/trump-maintains-lead-in-nh-dem-race-close.html …

    Changes from their last one:

    Trump +2
    Rubio +4
    Christie +1
    Kasich +3
    Cruz -3
    Bush +5
    Carson -5
    Fiorina -2
    Paul -1

    So everyone happy, except Cruz.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    kle4 said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Evening all.

    “Now they’ve got the freedom this should help them make up their minds or not”


    Er sorry, but what is the main point of this patronising thread?


    CON ministers uncertain which way to vote in the EU referendum will probably want solid information about what ordinary members of the party think before they make their decision, but sadly for them the information is not clear.
    If a clear majority of party members back Leave then that complicates Osborne's leadership ambitions. Particularly if the EU and or the deal quickly go south.
    I also think that having a PM closely associated with Remain after a close vote is going to be difficult as anyone who was in Remain will be seen as soft on the EU and we will have pending treaty changes to ram through. A leader who is willing to call another referendum if the treaty changes are not put through may be seen as a better bet.
    The problem with calling a second referendum in those circumstances if probably not whether the leader is willing but whether you can get it through the Commons with such a small majority.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited January 2016
    Speedy said:

    New PPP N.H poll:

    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 25m25 minutes ago
    Our NH poll- Trump 29, Rubio 15, Christie/Kasich 11, Bush/Cruz 10, Carson/Fiorina 4, Paul 3, Huckabee/Santorum 1: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/01/trump-maintains-lead-in-nh-dem-race-close.html …

    Changes from their last one:

    Trump +2
    Rubio +4
    Christie +1
    Kasich +3
    Cruz -3
    Bush +5
    Carson -5
    Fiorina -2
    Paul -1

    So everyone happy, except Cruz.

    Some life left in Bush after all?

    I remain of the opinion that second place in New Hampshire is the most important battle of the first two contests: whichever of the so-called "moderate" candidates (Rubio, Bush, Christie, Kasich) wins that will be flooded with dollars from the Republican Establishment, to compete against Trump and Cruz for the rest of the primaries.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Danny565 said:

    Speedy said:

    New PPP N.H poll:

    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 25m25 minutes ago
    Our NH poll- Trump 29, Rubio 15, Christie/Kasich 11, Bush/Cruz 10, Carson/Fiorina 4, Paul 3, Huckabee/Santorum 1: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/01/trump-maintains-lead-in-nh-dem-race-close.html …

    Changes from their last one:

    Trump +2
    Rubio +4
    Christie +1
    Kasich +3
    Cruz -3
    Bush +5
    Carson -5
    Fiorina -2
    Paul -1

    So everyone happy, except Cruz.

    Some life left in Bush after all?

    I remain of the opinion that second place in New Hampshire is the most important battle of the first two contests: whichever of the so-called "moderate" candidates (Rubio, Bush, Christie, Kasich) wins that will be flooded with dollars from the Republican Establishment, to compete against Trump and Cruz for the rest of the primaries.
    Good thinking, and on that basis It's Not Over Yet.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    JosiasJessop said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Mortimer said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Mortimer said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    Violence, extreme violence leading to abject fear.
    Absolutely dreadful. Presumably even China will eventually get fed up of this cold sore on their flank, and major powers can ensure the system is replaced?
    I believe China have two separate fears: The NK system failing and millions of people crossing over to China, and of a US presence right on their border.

    They will do little IMO until the threat by the NK regime outweighs those two fears, or those two fears can be guarded against.
    So presumably as Chinese consumer economy and armed power grows, NK would become more unacceptable.

    If capitalism forced China into acting against NK....
    It's more about the old guard in China seeing the survival of the regime in the North as the proof of the victory that cost them and China so much.

    The younger generation of leaders are wondering the following - They manage to bring down the North without causing an apocalypse, back reunification with the South (which will be crippled by the economic cost of reunification - so Chinese cheap lending would be required) on the understanding that the US would have to leave all its bases there. This would push the US away from China and replace a US ally (South Korea) with a friendly state that could never be a threat to China...

    The problem is ending the regime n the North without setting off a war...
    If I remember correctly though (it's been a long time since I read about the Korean War), didn't China only get seriously involved once the allies crossed the partition line and reached as far north as the Chinese border in 1950? Before that NK had mainly been supported by Russia rather than China, with China's help only coming because they needed Russian aid?

    I think ...

    Hence that 'victory' only came about because of their desire to keep the US from their border ...
    Basically N.Korea is a chinese buffer state.
    It suits the americans, the japanese and the chinese to keep korea divided for their own reasons.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Wanderer said:

    Danny565 said:

    Speedy said:

    New PPP N.H poll:

    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 25m25 minutes ago
    Our NH poll- Trump 29, Rubio 15, Christie/Kasich 11, Bush/Cruz 10, Carson/Fiorina 4, Paul 3, Huckabee/Santorum 1: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/01/trump-maintains-lead-in-nh-dem-race-close.html …

    Changes from their last one:

    Trump +2
    Rubio +4
    Christie +1
    Kasich +3
    Cruz -3
    Bush +5
    Carson -5
    Fiorina -2
    Paul -1

    So everyone happy, except Cruz.

    Some life left in Bush after all?

    I remain of the opinion that second place in New Hampshire is the most important battle of the first two contests: whichever of the so-called "moderate" candidates (Rubio, Bush, Christie, Kasich) wins that will be flooded with dollars from the Republican Establishment, to compete against Trump and Cruz for the rest of the primaries.
    Good thinking, and on that basis It's Not Over Yet.
    Of course, it could be 1) Trump, 2) Cruz :)
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Scott_P said:

    Rumour Keith Vaz about to join Corbyn's shadow team...

    I hope so. Such a fine example of the Labour party.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2016
    Danny565 said:

    Speedy said:

    New PPP N.H poll:

    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls 25m25 minutes ago
    Our NH poll- Trump 29, Rubio 15, Christie/Kasich 11, Bush/Cruz 10, Carson/Fiorina 4, Paul 3, Huckabee/Santorum 1: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/01/trump-maintains-lead-in-nh-dem-race-close.html …

    Changes from their last one:

    Trump +2
    Rubio +4
    Christie +1
    Kasich +3
    Cruz -3
    Bush +5
    Carson -5
    Fiorina -2
    Paul -1

    So everyone happy, except Cruz.

    Some life left in Bush after all?

    I remain of the opinion that second place in New Hampshire is the most important battle of the first two contests: whichever of the so-called "moderate" candidates (Rubio, Bush, Christie, Kasich) wins that will be flooded with dollars from the Republican Establishment, to compete against Trump and Cruz for the rest of the primaries.
    Nope, you forget about momentum, only the winners come out of Iowa and N.Hampshire to be competitive in the rest of the primaries and have a chance to win the nomination.

    That has always been true for both parties since the primary system was introduced with the exception of McGovern in 1972 and Clinton in 1992.

    Someone will come second in N.H. but unless he won Iowa then he's dead no matter how many dollars he'll get from the establishment (Bush got 100$ million and that didn't do him much good), if a moderate can't win in N.H then it's a long way to find a primary that he can win, especially after been branded a loser.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    surbiton said:

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    MaxPB said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Charles said:

    flightpath01 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    taffys said:

    Its interesting that the MSM is catching on to Cologne today, well behind us on PB.

    I think it is becoming too big an issue to ignore.


    The BBC also give a report of a woman having a firework thrown into her hoodie. Another group of women being harassed and 'groped' by a gang of 30 men. Women have clearly been targeted but the emotive issue of rape which is exercising everyone is not yet clear. There seems to be a clear conclusion (or accusation) that well, mass rapes have been taking place. But the reporting does not justify this.
    It was on local radio in Socal this morning
    The funny thing is that by treating it as a scary story (what if everyone in Germany rejoins the NSDAP???? Must bury story!!!!!) rather than dealing with the issue it is making the problem much worse.

    The issue is quite simple. In much of the globe, societies are much less advanced in dealing with womens rights, religious right, gay right etc. This leads to the following options -

    1) Immigrants need to be educated to respect local laws and customs.
    2) Immigrants need to be filtered for those who will respect local laws and customs.
    3) Give up on womens rights, gay rights etc.
    4) No immigrants.

    Personally I am in favour of a mix of 1 & 2.
    I'd be 2 and 4. 1 doesn't work very well with Muslim immigrants and 3 absolutely is out of the question. Far fewer immigrants and then those who do come need to be stringently tested for cultural values and to pass a spoken and written English exam. Exceptions given to people of extreme necessity, i.e. this Japanese guy needs to run the nuclear power station and there is no one in the UK who can do it, but he doesn't speak English very well.
    Yes I agree - No immigrants!

    Happy to drive you to Heathrow so you can piss you from here!

    Tw*t!!
    Great grandparents - British citizens
    Grandparents - British citizens
    Parents - British citizens

    Hmm...

    Another Labour supporter more concerned with harvesting Muslim votes than keeping our country safe from terrorists and rapists who have infested the rest of Europe.
    What have you got against Muslims that you keep on at it ?
    Are you a Muslim, Surbiton?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Drawing inspiration from @SeanT's undue modesty, I wanted to make sure people had seen the following article.

    We've blagged a few pretty bits and pieces that we are putting on display at our pad in London from the end of January if any one is interested.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/goingout/attractions/treasure-trove-reveals-how-the-ancient-egyptians-really-lived-a3149846.html
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    JosiasJessop said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Mortimer said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Mortimer said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    Violence, extreme violence leading to abject fear.
    Absolutely dreadful. Presumably even China will eventually get fed up of this cold sore on their flank, and major powers can ensure the system is replaced?
    I believe China have two separate fears: The NK system failing and millions of people crossing over to China, and of a US presence right on their border.

    They will do little IMO until the threat by the NK regime outweighs those two fears, or those two fears can be guarded against.
    So presumably as Chinese consumer economy and armed power grows, NK would become more unacceptable.

    If capitalism forced China into acting against NK....
    It's more about the old guard in China seeing the survival of the regime in the North as the proof of the victory that cost them and China so much.

    The younger generation of leaders are wondering the following - They manage to bring down the North without causing an apocalypse, back reunification with the South (which will be crippled by the economic cost of reunification - so Chinese cheap lending would be required) on the understanding that the US would have to leave all its bases there. This would push the US away from China and replace a US ally (South Korea) with a friendly state that could never be a threat to China...

    The problem is ending the regime n the North without setting off a war...
    If I remember correctly though (it's been a long time since I read about the Korean War), didn't China only get seriously involved once the allies crossed the partition line and reached as far north as the Chinese border in 1950? Before that NK had mainly been supported by Russia rather than China, with China's help only coming because they needed Russian aid?

    I think ...

    Hence that 'victory' only came about because of their desire to keep the US from their border ...
    It's all here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War

    and an animated GIF here:

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Korean_war_1950-1953.gif
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Reading Paul Flynn's tweets today... is he er... is he acquainted with Father Jack?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    Charles said:

    Drawing inspiration from @SeanT's undue modesty, I wanted to make sure people had seen the following article.

    We've blagged a few pretty bits and pieces that we are putting on display at our pad in London from the end of January if any one is interested.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/goingout/attractions/treasure-trove-reveals-how-the-ancient-egyptians-really-lived-a3149846.html

    I really enjoyed the exhibition that I attended a couple of years ago. And it's worth going just to get a look-see of your gaff, which has to be the largest exhibit!
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited January 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    We have a whole summer migrant crisis to contend with, the possibility of more events like those in Germany occurring in the rest of Europe and the possibility of another demand for money from the EC.

    If the Leave side can get organised we can make it a close race and possibly edge 50-55 points in a low turn out referendum, but it will take a fair wind and ruthless dedication to a winning message.

    The people who are voting Leave because of immigration are already likely to vote leave. The argument Leave needs to make will have to be like the one Dan Hannan made in the Telegraph, there is no status quo. I said it on here a few days ago. Leave needs to get across that a vote for Remain puts us on the path to a European super state where our votes mean nothing and we have no power to control our own laws, everything will be done in Brussels by some type of autocrat who we don't get much say in picking. This argument has worked well for me in convincing people minded to vote either way, it works especially well for soft-left type IMO while people on the centre or soft-right need to be swayed by an economic argument.
    I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so. Right now, for my money, Betfair's decimal odds of 3.0 to leave look better value than their 1.5 odds to remain. But as ever DYOR.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,210
    Charles said:

    Drawing inspiration from @SeanT's undue modesty, I wanted to make sure people had seen the following article.

    We've blagged a few pretty bits and pieces that we are putting on display at our pad in London from the end of January if any one is interested.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/goingout/attractions/treasure-trove-reveals-how-the-ancient-egyptians-really-lived-a3149846.html

    That does look interesting.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited January 2016
    ''I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so.''

    Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    taffys said:

    ''I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so.''

    Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.

    EU may collapse in internal strife even before the referendum
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    bigjohnowls said:

    First,like Corbyn at PMQs

    JICIPM? :lol:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Arrse: Bizarre world where it is ok for shadow defence sec to be closely associated with anti-military legal firm https://t.co/7LSxo877fW
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Mortimer said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Mortimer said:

    HurstLlama said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?

    Violence, extreme violence leading to abject fear.
    Absolutely dreadful. Presumably even China will eventually get fed up of this cold sore on their flank, and major powers can ensure the system is replaced?
    I believe China have two separate fears: The NK system failing and millions of people crossing over to China, and of a US presence right on their border.

    They will do little IMO until the threat by the NK regime outweighs those two fears, or those two fears can be guarded against.
    So presumably as Chinese consumer economy and armed power grows, NK would become more unacceptable.

    If capitalism forced China into acting against NK....
    It's more about the old guard in China seeing the survival of the regime in the North as the proof of the victory that cost them and China so much.

    The younger generation of leaders are wondering the following - They manage to bring down the North without causing an apocalypse, back reunification with the South (which will be crippled by the economic cost of reunification - so Chinese cheap lending would be required) on the understanding that the US would have to leave all its bases there. This would push the US away from China and replace a US ally (South Korea) with a friendly state that could never be a threat to China...

    The problem is ending the regime n the North without setting off a war...
    If I remember correctly though (it's been a long time since I read about the Korean War), didn't China only get seriously involved once the allies crossed the partition line and reached as far north as the Chinese border in 1950? Before that NK had mainly been supported by Russia rather than China, with China's help only coming because they needed Russian aid?

    I think ...

    Hence that 'victory' only came about because of their desire to keep the US from their border ...
    It's all here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War

    and an animated GIF here:

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Korean_war_1950-1953.gif
    Yes, pretty much - but the scale of the Chinese losses was vast. The *official* Chinese numbers were half a million casualties including 114K dead. Probably a lot worse. So it became one of those "we must have won something" wars. The survival of North Korea is a totem for those who were in the Chinese army at the time.

This discussion has been closed.