Just watching the c4 news - North Korea looks about 40 years behind the rest of the world. How has that system not collapsed?
Violence, extreme violence leading to abject fear.
Absolutely dreadful. Presumably even China will eventually get fed up of this cold sore on their flank, and major powers can ensure the system is replaced?
ntil the threat by the NK regime outweighs those two fears, or those two fears can be guarded against.
So presumably as Chinese consumer economy and armed power grows, NK would become more unacceptable.
If capitalism forced China into acting against NK....
It's more about the old guard in China seeing the survival of the regime in the North as the proof of the victory that cost them and China so much.
The younger generation of leaders are wondering the following - They manage to bring down the North without causing an apocalypse, back reunification with the South (which will be crippled by the economic cost of reunification - so Chinese cheap lending would be required) on the understanding that the US would have to leave all its bases there. This would push the US away from China and replace a US ally (South Korea) with a friendly state that could never be a threat to China...
The problem is ending the regime n the North without setting off a war...
If I remember correctly though (it's been a long time since I read about the Korean War), didn't China only get seriously involved once the allies crossed the partition line and reached as far north as the Chinese border in 1950? Before that NK had mainly been supported by Russia rather than China, with China's help only coming because they needed Russian aid?
I think ...
Hence that 'victory' only came about because of their desire to keep the US from their border ...
Yes, pretty much - but the scale of the Chinese losses was vast. The *official* Chinese numbers were half a million casualties including 114K dead. Probably a lot worse. So it became one of those "we must have won something" wars. The survival of North Korea is a totem for those who were in the Chinese army at the time.
Don't forget, the Commies came ever so close to conquering the South in September 1950...
''I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so.''
Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.
EU may collapse in internal strife even before the referendum
I don't think that will be the case if the referendum is held before June 2017, in May 2017 there are the french presidential elections and if Le Pen becomes president that will commence the break up, since the EU cannot survive a french withdrawal.
But if France leaves the EU then suddenly Britain can form a separate Economic Community with France (and other countries who may follow France) that competes with the remnants of the EU, something that Britain tried to do in the 60's but scandinavian countries were too small economically back then. Suddenly there would be 2 camps in europe, one led by Britain and one led by Germany competing for mastery of the continent.
From a tactical view point it would serve British interests to wait until the french presidential election to see what happens before deciding about EU membership.
@PfP - not seeing the value in backing either Leave or Remain at current odds. I just can't call it either way versus the prices offered.
Best bets are at the shoulders: Remain 40-45% at 8/1 and 60-65℅ at 8/1 IMHO. If the EU and the Remain campaign really goes south, the deal falls apart and Leave get their act together and argue the EEA is the best status quo option (targeting nervous swing professionals) i could see a leave vote of 56-57%.
On the other hand if Cameron surprises and gets a better than expected deal, the EU calms down and there's a disastrous and bitter Leave campaign we could get a remain vote of 62-63%.
A really good article, one I wouldn't expect from the guardian. I even turned off my ad blocker and refreshed the page!
This is the kind of article that needs to be on the BBC website and should form the basis of the news report.
Astonishingly, this hasn't received a fraction of the media coverage in the UK such an important and serious story as this undoubtedly warrants - perhaps it will prove to be a slow burner as we get over the mega news concerning who is about to appear on CBB, etc.
''I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so.''
Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.
EU may collapse in internal strife even before the referendum
I don't think that will be the case if the referendum is held before June 2017, in May 2017 there are the french presidential elections and if Le Pen becomes president that will commence the break up, since the EU cannot survive a french withdrawal.
But if France leaves the EU then suddenly Britain can form a separate Economic Community with France (and other countries who may follow France) that competes with the remnants of the EU, something that Britain tried to do in the 60's but scandinavian countries were too small economically back then. Suddenly there would be 2 camps in europe, one led by Britain and one led by Germany competing for mastery of the continent.
From a tactical view point it would serve British interests to wait until the french presidential election to see what happens before deciding about EU membership.
If the EU is overwelmed by migrants in the Spring and Summer the whole project could go pear shaped as each Country defends it's own borders
Keith Vaz is Chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee... if he gets reshuffled in, does that mean a Labour Party Election with a probable blairite replacement in the bag? My understanding is convention is for ministers to be scrutinized by them and hence play minimal part.
A really good article, one I wouldn't expect from the guardian. I even turned off my ad blocker and refreshed the page!
This is the kind of article that needs to be on the BBC website and should form the basis of the news report.
Astonishingly, this hasn't received a fraction of the media coverage in the UK such an important and serious story as this undoubtedly warrants - perhaps it will prove to be a slow burner as we get over the mega news concerning who is about to appear on CBB, etc.
I'm not surprised. Far too many of our broadcast media feel the British public are a lynch mob in waiting.
''I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so.''
Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.
EU may collapse in internal strife even before the referendum
I don't think that will be the case if the referendum is held before June 2017, in May 2017 there are the french presidential elections and if Le Pen becomes president that will commence the break up, since the EU cannot survive a french withdrawal.
But if France leaves the EU then suddenly Britain can form a separate Economic Community with France (and other countries who may follow France) that competes with the remnants of the EU, something that Britain tried to do in the 60's but scandinavian countries were too small economically back then. Suddenly there would be 2 camps in europe, one led by Britain and one led by Germany competing for mastery of the continent.
From a tactical view point it would serve British interests to wait until the french presidential election to see what happens before deciding about EU membership.
If the EU is overwelmed by migrants in the Spring and Summer the whole project could go pear shaped as each Country defends it's own borders
Indeed, that is precisely one of any number of possible "Events, Dear Boy, Events".
If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.
''I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so.''
Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.
EU may collapse in internal strife even before the referendum
I don't think that will be the case if the referendum is held before June 2017, in May 2017 there are the french presidential elections and if Le Pen becomes president that will commence the break up, since the EU cannot survive a french withdrawal.
But if France leaves the EU then suddenly Britain can form a separate Economic Community with France (and other countries who may follow France) that competes with the remnants of the EU, something that Britain tried to do in the 60's but scandinavian countries were too small economically back then. Suddenly there would be 2 camps in europe, one led by Britain and one led by Germany competing for mastery of the continent.
From a tactical view point it would serve British interests to wait until the french presidential election to see what happens before deciding about EU membership.
If the EU is overwelmed by migrants in the Spring and Summer the whole project could go pear shaped as each Country defends it's own borders
''I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so.''
Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.
EU may collapse in internal strife even before the referendum
I don't think that will be the case if the referendum is held before June 2017, in May 2017 there are the french presidential elections and if Le Pen becomes president that will commence the break up, since the EU cannot survive a french withdrawal.
But if France leaves the EU then suddenly Britain can form a separate Economic Community with France (and other countries who may follow France) that competes with the remnants of the EU, something that Britain tried to do in the 60's but scandinavian countries were too small economically back then. Suddenly there would be 2 camps in europe, one led by Britain and one led by Germany competing for mastery of the continent.
From a tactical view point it would serve British interests to wait until the french presidential election to see what happens before deciding about EU membership.
If the EU is overwelmed by migrants in the Spring and Summer the whole project could go pear shaped as each Country defends it's own borders
That's the big known unknown.
Donny Rumsfield moves amongst us. Seriously, spot on comment Sean.
If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.
If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.
A really good article, one I wouldn't expect from the guardian. I even turned off my ad blocker and refreshed the page!
This is the kind of article that needs to be on the BBC website and should form the basis of the news report.
Astonishingly, this hasn't received a fraction of the media coverage in the UK such an important and serious story as this undoubtedly warrants - perhaps it will prove to be a slow burner as we get over the mega news concerning who is about to appear on CBB, etc.
Far too many of our broadcast media feel the British public are a lynch mob in waiting.
Regardless of this particular instance, that comment is spot on. Then again, a lot of people in powerful places seem to agree with it.
If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.
That hasn't stopped an opportunistic Britain before, it's better to wait and see if she comes into power and then exploit it. Her game is french nationalism and that certainly can be exploited.
If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.
If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.
Yes whenever I read a story about such things I look at the comments. Most of them are "good riddance". The public are only really concerned about them coming back.
Yes whenever I read a story about such things I look at the comments. Most of them are "good riddance". The public are only really concerned about them coming back.
The problem is the same system that us letting them go doesn't seem much better at stopping them returning.
Reading Paul Flynn's tweets today... is he er... is he acquainted with Father Jack?
Someone put him to bed....
Paul Flynn @PaulFlynnMP 14m14 minutes ago Lambeth, London Day of orchestrated treachery as resignations were timed for news outlets with cunning malevolence to wound elected leader and party.
If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.
If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.
The EU would not survive a Le Pen presidency.
So best to wait then. We can do a new economic community from the ruins of the last one.
Tom Hunter @OneLifeStand87 9m9 minutes ago @PaulFlynnMP I really don't think they were. Accept both sides can have principles. Not like @KevanJonesMP wasn't pro-Trident before today. s
Tom Hunter @OneLifeStand87 8m8 minutes ago @PaulFlynnMP And considering the number of tweets you've deleted today I'd spend longer thinking before you post. It's not helping.
Are Twitter censoring tweets about Keith Vaz? I saw tweets on the #keithvaz hashtag that appear to have gone and it's been dead for 20 minutes now. Surely that is extraordinary for just a cabinet reshuffle...
If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.
If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.
The EU would not survive a Le Pen presidency.
Indeed. One of the reasons I hope it happens. Though I do have serious reservations about an FN government across the channel. At least it would put an end to the EU and the Euro.
If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.
If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.
The EU would not survive a Le Pen presidency.
So best to wait then.
As an aside, having crunched the numbers on both the elections in France this year (the March Departmental ones, and the December Regional ones), I really struggle to see a path to the Presidency for Le Pen.
The FN did a terrible job in attracting second round votes in each election, and ended up with lower vote shares in round two that round one almost across the board. (And it is worth remembering that the December regionals exaggerate the FN vote share as Paris did not have elections, and the FN performs poorly there.)
The only plausible situation where she wins is where she is up against a Left Wing candidate in round two (ideally Hollande), and where Republicans break 2:1 for her against Hollande. (Given Hollande will pick up all the Green transfers, almost all the Left Front, and all the MoDem votes.) And in the Deparment elections in March, where it was Socialist vs FN in the second round, the right wing vote appeared to go 4:1 in favour of the Socialist candidate.
If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.
If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.
The EU would not survive a Le Pen presidency.
So best to wait then.
As an aside, having crunched the numbers on both the elections in France this year (the March Departmental ones, and the December Regional ones), I really struggle to see a path to the Presidency for Le Pen.
The FN did a terrible job in attracting second round votes in each election, and ended up with lower vote shares in round two that round one almost across the board. (And it is worth remembering that the December regionals exaggerate the FN vote share as Paris did not have elections, and the FN performs poorly there.)
The only plausible situation where she wins is where she is up against a Left Wing candidate in round two (ideally Hollande), and where Republicans break 2:1 for her against Hollande. (Given Hollande will pick up all the Green transfers, almost all the Left Front, and all the MoDem votes.) And in the Deparment elections in March, where it was Socialist vs FN in the second round, the right wing vote appeared to go 4:1 in favour of the Socialist candidate.
I thought I read the FN vote held up, but there was even more tactical voting than normal (in a place were such activity isn't exactly uncommon).
If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.
If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.
The EU would not survive a Le Pen presidency.
Indeed. One of the reasons I hope it happens. Though I do have serious reservations about an FN government across the channel. At least it would put an end to the EU and the Euro.
The FN is of the view that many of France's problems come from a lack of regulation of business and an excess of free trade. From a policy perspective, they are nothing like the VVD in the Netherlands, or the AfD in Germany.
So, a Le Pen victory - which I would rate as extremely unlikely - would not be a good outcome for the French people. And I don't think it would be a good outcome for the British for Mrs Le Pen to be running France.
According to witnesses, the males, between 15 and 35 years old, tightly surrounded women in groups of 30 or 40, before groping them and mugging them and their partners. Many threw firecrackers into the crowds, adding to the mayhem that ensued, which later forced the police to clear the square.
Egypt: Patrick Kingsley in Cairo
Friday 5 July 2013 12.57 BST Last modified on Thursday 22 May 2014 01.01 BST
''I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so.''
Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.
EU may collapse in internal strife even before the referendum
I don't think that will be the case if the referendum is held before June 2017, in May 2017 there are the french presidential elections and if Le Pen becomes president that will commence the break up, since the EU cannot survive a french withdrawal.
But if France leaves the EU then suddenly Britain can form a separate Economic Community with France (and other countries who may follow France) that competes with the remnants of the EU, something that Britain tried to do in the 60's but scandinavian countries were too small economically back then. Suddenly there would be 2 camps in europe, one led by Britain and one led by Germany competing for mastery of the continent.
From a tactical view point it would serve British interests to wait until the french presidential election to see what happens before deciding about EU membership.
If the EU is overwelmed by migrants in the Spring and Summer the whole project could go pear shaped as each Country defends it's own borders
That's the big known unknown.
Donny Rumsfield moves amongst us. Seriously, spot on comment Sean.
I don't know why Rumsfeld was ever mocked.
The known unknowns are the problems you anticipate, but you can't be sure what their effects will be.
The unknown unknowns are the problems that come out of nowhere.
Trump +2 Rubio +4 Christie +1 Kasich +3 Cruz -3 Bush +5 Carson -5 Fiorina -2 Paul -1
So everyone happy, except Cruz.
So Trump remains on course to win the Granite state and any momentum Cruz may get out of Iowa will be quickly eroded there. On the Dem side it is very close
If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.
If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.
The EU would not survive a Le Pen presidency.
So best to wait then.
As an aside, having crunched the numbers on both the elections in France this year (the March Departmental ones, and the December Regional ones), I really struggle to see a path to the Presidency for Le Pen.
The FN did a terrible job in attracting second round votes in each election, and ended up with lower vote shares in round two that round one almost across the board. (And it is worth remembering that the December regionals exaggerate the FN vote share as Paris did not have elections, and the FN performs poorly there.)
The only plausible situation where she wins is where she is up against a Left Wing candidate in round two (ideally Hollande), and where Republicans break 2:1 for her against Hollande. (Given Hollande will pick up all the Green transfers, almost all the Left Front, and all the MoDem votes.) And in the Deparment elections in March, where it was Socialist vs FN in the second round, the right wing vote appeared to go 4:1 in favour of the Socialist candidate.
I thought I read the FN vote held up, but there was even more tactical voting than normal (in a place were such activity isn't exactly uncommon).
Their vote share fell in round two, although their absolute number increased slightly.
Col Tim Collins, who commanded the 1st Battalion of the Royal Irish Regiment during the invasion, said: "Emily Thornberrry is someone without any credibility, the only reason she is there is because she is a Corbyn loyalist.
"It demonstrates the utter disdain he has for the defence of the nation. It suggests defence doesn't matter. She is an inciompetent individual who got herself sacked because of an act of buffoonery."
Lord Dannatt, the former head of the British army, said he was "disturbed" by Miss Thornberry's links to Leigh Day while Lord West of Spithead, a former First Sea Lord who served as a Labour security minister, suggested that he links were "ill advised".
If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.
If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.
The EU would not survive a Le Pen presidency.
Indeed. One of the reasons I hope it happens. Though I do have serious reservations about an FN government across the channel. At least it would put an end to the EU and the Euro.
This is the same school of thought that says "we need more attacks on women to show people how nasty a fraction of Muslims are".
If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.
If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.
The EU would not survive a Le Pen presidency.
So best to wait then.
As an aside, having crunched the numbers on both the elections in France this year (the March Departmental ones, and the December Regional ones), I really struggle to see a path to the Presidency for Le Pen.
The FN did a terrible job in attracting second round votes in each election, and ended up with lower vote shares in round two that round one almost across the board. (And it is worth remembering that the December regionals exaggerate the FN vote share as Paris did not have elections, and the FN performs poorly there.)
The only plausible situation where she wins is where she is up against a Left Wing candidate in round two (ideally Hollande), and where Republicans break 2:1 for her against Hollande. (Given Hollande will pick up all the Green transfers, almost all the Left Front, and all the MoDem votes.) And in the Deparment elections in March, where it was Socialist vs FN in the second round, the right wing vote appeared to go 4:1 in favour of the Socialist candidate.
I thought I read the FN vote held up, but there was even more tactical voting than normal (in a place were such activity isn't exactly uncommon).
Of the 6 million votes in round two that were 'available' (i.e. that could not given to whoever had previously had them), the Republicans got 4 millions, the Socialists 1.5 million, and the FN 600,000.
The floating of the idea of moving the exam timetables around for Ramadan is making a lot of front pages. I don't think it is going to do the government a lot of good some how.
''I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so.''
Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.
EU may collapse in internal strife even before the referendum
I don't think that will be the case if the referendum is held before June 2017, in May 2017 there are the french presidential elections and if Le Pen becomes president that will commence the break up, since the EU cannot survive a french withdrawal.
But if France leaves the EU then suddenly Britain can form a separate Economic Community with France (and other countries who may follow France) that competes with the remnants of the EU, something that Britain tried to do in the 60's but scandinavian countries were too small economically back then. Suddenly there would be 2 camps in europe, one led by Britain and one led by Germany competing for mastery of the continent.
From a tactical view point it would serve British interests to wait until the french presidential election to see what happens before deciding about EU membership.
If the EU is overwelmed by migrants in the Spring and Summer the whole project could go pear shaped as each Country defends it's own borders
That's the big known unknown.
Donny Rumsfield moves amongst us. Seriously, spot on comment Sean.
I don't know why Rumsfeld was ever mocked.
The known unknowns are the problems you anticipate, but you can't be sure what their effects will be.
The unknown unknowns are the problems that come out of nowhere.
Honestly it's likely just it sounds silly on the face of it. Known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns is a funny sounding phrase.
Reading Paul Flynn's tweets today... is he er... is he acquainted with Father Jack?
Someone put him to bed....
Paul Flynn @PaulFlynnMP 14m14 minutes ago Lambeth, London Day of orchestrated treachery as resignations were timed for news outlets with cunning malevolence to wound elected leader and party.
Well the analytical content is right The Manichean emotive exaggeration is no worse than what you see here about Muslims or feminists literally every day
''I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so.''
Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.
EU may collapse in internal strife even before the referendum
I don't think that will be the case if the referendum is held before June 2017, in May 2017 there are the french presidential elections and if Le Pen becomes president that will commence the break up, since the EU cannot survive a french withdrawal.
But if France leaves the EU then suddenly Britain can form a separate Economic Community with France (and other countries who may follow France) that competes with the remnants of the EU, something that Britain tried to do in the 60's but scandinavian countries were too small economically back then. Suddenly there would be 2 camps in europe, one led by Britain and one led by Germany competing for mastery of the continent.
From a tactical view point it would serve British interests to wait until the french presidential election to see what happens before deciding about EU membership.
If the EU is overwelmed by migrants in the Spring and Summer the whole project could go pear shaped as each Country defends it's own borders
That's the big known unknown.
Donny Rumsfield moves amongst us. Seriously, spot on comment Sean.
I don't know why Rumsfeld was ever mocked.
The known unknowns are the problems you anticipate, but you can't be sure what their effects will be.
The unknown unknowns are the problems that come out of nowhere.
If you read the text of what he said, it was actually incredibly insightful.
On topic and without reading the thread I trust phone polls accuracy far more than online ones at the best of times. I wouldn't agree even that at the General Election that the online polls and phone polls were equally bad ... the phone polls were bad but the online polls were worse. The final phone polls were awful but the penultimate ones if they'd been final were far more accurate - the same can not be said about online.
However this isn't the best of times. I think that "true believers" of one thing or another are far more likely to sign up for online polls so I think the flaws inherent in online polls will be exaggerated in a matter like this - where some people care deeply and passionately but most others are a bit 'meh'.
''I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so.''
Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.
EU may collapse in internal strife even before the referendum
I don't think that will be the case if the referendum is held before June 2017, in May 2017 there are the french presidential elections and if Le Pen becomes president that will commence the break up, since the EU cannot survive a french withdrawal.
But if France leaves the EU then suddenly Britain can form a separate Economic Community with France (and other countries who may follow France) that competes with the remnants of the EU, something that Britain tried to do in the 60's but scandinavian countries were too small economically back then. Suddenly there would be 2 camps in europe, one led by Britain and one led by Germany competing for mastery of the continent.
From a tactical view point it would serve British interests to wait until the french presidential election to see what happens before deciding about EU membership.
If the EU is overwelmed by migrants in the Spring and Summer the whole project could go pear shaped as each Country defends it's own borders
That's the big known unknown.
Donny Rumsfield moves amongst us. Seriously, spot on comment Sean.
I don't know why Rumsfeld was ever mocked.
The known unknowns are the problems you anticipate, but you can't be sure what their effects will be.
The unknown unknowns are the problems that come out of nowhere.
Well said it makes and made perfect sense.
Some people are too thick to understand comments sometimes and then blow up their ignorance into mocking the smarter person. This was one of those times.
Reading Paul Flynn's tweets today... is he er... is he acquainted with Father Jack?
Someone put him to bed....
Paul Flynn @PaulFlynnMP 14m14 minutes ago Lambeth, London Day of orchestrated treachery as resignations were timed for news outlets with cunning malevolence to wound elected leader and party.
Well the analytical content is right The Manichean emotive exaggeration is no worse than what you see here about Muslims or feminists literally every day
I wonder how you manage to cope with the views that seem to horrify you so much on this blog.
In its newly released January 2016 poll yougov has Tories split 55% Leave 45% Remain. With UKIP voters strongly for Leave, 72% to 28% and the centre left parties almost as strongly for Remain (LDs split 64% to 36% Remain, Labour 62% to 38% Remain, the Greens 68% to 32% Remain and the SNP 63% to 38% for Remain) Tories will be the key swing voters in the Referendum with the overall result just 51% to 49% for Remain once Don't Knows are excluded https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/01/06/big-dividing-lines-eu-age-education-and-newspaper-/
The floating of the idea of moving the exam timetables around for Ramadan is making a lot of front pages. I don't think it is going to do the government a lot of good some how.
Especially as it's not necessary. Children are excused from fasting. The exam boards should grow a pair.
In its newly released January 2016 poll yougov has Tories split 55% Leave 45% Remain. With UKIP voters strongly for Leave, 72% to 28% and the centre left parties almost as strongly for Remain (LDs split 64% to 36% Remain, Labour 62% to 38% Remain, the Greens 68% to 32% Remain and the SNP 63% to 38% for Remain) Tories will be the key swing voters in the Referendum with the overall result just 51% to 49% for Remain once Don't Knows are excluded https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/01/06/big-dividing-lines-eu-age-education-and-newspaper-/
More than a quarter of UKIP voters want us to stay in the EU! It just goes to show that there's nought as queer as folk.
It definitely looks like he's joining the shadow cabinet.
Is that good or bad? He seems well regarded by my Labour voting acquaintances (those I know vote Labour at any rate)
I could be wrong but I seem to recall he was very prominent in the Salman Rushdie book burning demonstrations in Bradford in the 1980's. Looking at back at those demonstrations now you can't help thinking we should have clamped down then and said it was not acceptable to call for the murder off A UK citizen simply because he offended your religion.
''I can't help but think that most if not all the "Events, Dear Boy, Events" which might occur occur between now and the holding of the referendum are likely to be helpful to the Leave cause and potentially decisively so.''
Absolutely. I wonder what effect events in Germany might have, for example.
EU may collapse in internal strife even before the referendum
I don't think that will be the case if the referendum is held before June 2017, in May 2017 there are the french presidential elections and if Le Pen becomes president that will commence the break up, since the EU cannot survive a french withdrawal.
But if France leaves the EU then suddenly Britain can form a separate Economic Community with France (and other countries who may follow France) that competes with the remnants of the EU, something that Britain tried to do in the 60's but scandinavian countries were too small economically back then. Suddenly there would be 2 camps in europe, one led by Britain and one led by Germany competing for mastery of the continent.
From a tactical view point it would serve British interests to wait until the french presidential election to see what happens before deciding about EU membership.
If the EU is overwelmed by migrants in the Spring and Summer the whole project could go pear shaped as each Country defends it's own borders
That's the big known unknown.
Donny Rumsfield moves amongst us. Seriously, spot on comment Sean.
I don't know why Rumsfeld was ever mocked.
The known unknowns are the problems you anticipate, but you can't be sure what their effects will be.
The unknown unknowns are the problems that come out of nowhere.
Honestly it's likely just it sounds silly on the face of it. Known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns is a funny sounding phrase.
I agree with @Sean_F. I think scorn was poured on this just because it was Rumsfeld and people didn't like him or Bush. The phrases are actually clear and useful.
The floating of the idea of moving the exam timetables around for Ramadan is making a lot of front pages. I don't think it is going to do the government a lot of good some how.
Especially as it's not necessary. Children are excused from fasting. The exam boards should grow a pair.
Well yes. It sounds like just another form of the classic "I am offended on the behalf of other people" guilt, without understanding things properly.
When I saw this I asked a Muslim friend, who said exactly what you have posted. He said you are also permitted to do your fast at a different date to make up for it if you really feel strongly about this. He did exactly this a number of years ago.
As an aside, having crunched the numbers on both the elections in France this year (the March Departmental ones, and the December Regional ones), I really struggle to see a path to the Presidency for Le Pen.
The FN did a terrible job in attracting second round votes in each election, and ended up with lower vote shares in round two that round one almost across the board. (And it is worth remembering that the December regionals exaggerate the FN vote share as Paris did not have elections, and the FN performs poorly there.)
The only plausible situation where she wins is where she is up against a Left Wing candidate in round two (ideally Hollande), and where Republicans break 2:1 for her against Hollande. (Given Hollande will pick up all the Green transfers, almost all the Left Front, and all the MoDem votes.) And in the Deparment elections in March, where it was Socialist vs FN in the second round, the right wing vote appeared to go 4:1 in favour of the Socialist candidate.
I think we really have to wait and see how the summer plays out before declaring anything in the French election. If anything like November happens again and the culprits are again "refugees" then it will absolute turn the election on its head. FN will get a much fairer hearing than they do at the moment. Every time it kicks off in France it adds 5-7 points to MLP's poll rating. A long summer of another 2m immigrants trying to get into Europe, the possibility of terrorist attacks at the European Championships and the possibility of attacks like those in Cologne taking place in the euphoria of said championships leaves lot up to chance.
FN might be transfer toxic at the moment, as you rightly point out, but it may not remain that way. People said that PVV could never win in the Netherlands, and yet they are heading for victory and a coalition with the D66. That's another one to look at for, a PVV/D66 coalition may begin negotiations to leave the Euro or the EU entirely. The radical right is surging across Europe. If one of these parties does win, it will be interesting to see how the EU reacts to the hostility. Even Law and Justice are still committed to remain in the EU, but the likes of FN and the PVV are not. Both want to bring back the national currency and monetary control and both would like to leave the EU entirely (both countries also rejected the EU Constitution as well so there is some appetite to restrict the EU).
Reading Paul Flynn's tweets today... is he er... is he acquainted with Father Jack?
Someone put him to bed....
Paul Flynn @PaulFlynnMP 14m14 minutes ago Lambeth, London Day of orchestrated treachery as resignations were timed for news outlets with cunning malevolence to wound elected leader and party.
Well the analytical content is right The Manichean emotive exaggeration is no worse than what you see here about Muslims or feminists literally every day
I wonder how you manage to cope with the views that seem to horrify you so much on this blog.
Calm down dear The blog doesn't embody the views of the Powellite commenters who are a tiny minority of its readers and who reason from anecdote Believe it or not most of the value in PB.com is from Mike and not comments about the need for people to educate themselves about how all Muslims are awful
If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.
If Le Pen wins then our referendum is the least of the EU's problems. France will abdicate from all of its EU treaties and reintroduce the Franc.
The EU would not survive a Le Pen presidency.
Indeed. One of the reasons I hope it happens. Though I do have serious reservations about an FN government across the channel. At least it would put an end to the EU and the Euro.
This is the same school of thought that says "we need more attacks on women to show people how nasty a fraction of Muslims are".
As an aside, having crunched the numbers on both the elections in France this year (the March Departmental ones, and the December Regional ones), I really struggle to see a path to the Presidency for Le Pen.
The FN did a terrible job in attracting second round votes in each election, and ended up with lower vote shares in round two that round one almost across the board. (And it is worth remembering that the December regionals exaggerate the FN vote share as Paris did not have elections, and the FN performs poorly there.)
The only plausible situation where she wins is where she is up against a Left Wing candidate in round two (ideally Hollande), and where Republicans break 2:1 for her against Hollande. (Given Hollande will pick up all the Green transfers, almost all the Left Front, and all the MoDem votes.) And in the Deparment elections in March, where it was Socialist vs FN in the second round, the right wing vote appeared to go 4:1 in favour of the Socialist candidate.
I think we really have to wait and see how the summer plays out before declaring anything in the French election. If anything like November happens again and the culprits are again "refugees" then it will absolute turn the election on its head. FN will get a much fairer hearing than they do at the moment. Every time it kicks off in France it adds 5-7 points to MLP's poll rating. A long summer of another 2m immigrants trying to get into Europe, the possibility of terrorist attacks at the European Championships and the possibility of attacks like those in Cologne taking place in the euphoria of said championships leaves lot up to chance.
FN might be transfer toxic at the moment, as you rightly point out, but it may not remain that way. People said that PVV could never win in the Netherlands, and yet they are heading for victory and a coalition with the D66. That's another one to look at for, a PVV/D66 coalition may begin negotiations to leave the Euro or the EU entirely. The radical right is surging across Europe. If one of these parties does win, it will be interesting to see how the EU reacts to the hostility. Even Law and Justice are still committed to remain in the EU, but the likes of FN and the PVV are not. Both want to bring back the national currency and monetary control and both would like to leave the EU entirely (both countries also rejected the EU Constitution as well so there is some appetite to restrict the EU).
Reading Paul Flynn's tweets today... is he er... is he acquainted with Father Jack?
Someone put him to bed....
Paul Flynn @PaulFlynnMP 14m14 minutes ago Lambeth, London Day of orchestrated treachery as resignations were timed for news outlets with cunning malevolence to wound elected leader and party.
Well the analytical content is right The Manichean emotive exaggeration is no worse than what you see here about Muslims or feminists literally every day
I wonder how you manage to cope with the views that seem to horrify you so much on this blog.
In its newly released January 2016 poll yougov has Tories split 55% Leave 45% Remain. With UKIP voters strongly for Leave, 72% to 28% and the centre left parties almost as strongly for Remain (LDs split 64% to 36% Remain, Labour 62% to 38% Remain, the Greens 68% to 32% Remain and the SNP 63% to 38% for Remain) Tories will be the key swing voters in the Referendum with the overall result just 51% to 49% for Remain once Don't Knows are excluded https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/01/06/big-dividing-lines-eu-age-education-and-newspaper-/
More than a quarter of UKIP voters want us to stay in the EU! It just goes to show that there's nought as queer as folk.
I see that information came from YouGov and therefore probably needs to be treated with a great deal of caution. Reading Tea Leaves might be a better guide or Heidi, TimB's German Shepherd.
In its newly released January 2016 poll yougov has Tories split 55% Leave 45% Remain. With UKIP voters strongly for Leave, 72% to 28% and the centre left parties almost as strongly for Remain (LDs split 64% to 36% Remain, Labour 62% to 38% Remain, the Greens 68% to 32% Remain and the SNP 63% to 38% for Remain) Tories will be the key swing voters in the Referendum with the overall result just 51% to 49% for Remain once Don't Knows are excluded https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/01/06/big-dividing-lines-eu-age-education-and-newspaper-/
More than a quarter of UKIP voters want us to stay in the EU! It just goes to show that there's nought as queer as folk.
More than a third of LDs want to leave the EU too, inevitably there will always be some exceptions to the rule!
As an aside, having crunched the numbers on both the elections in France this year (the March Departmental ones, and the December Regional ones), I really struggle to see a path to the Presidency for Le Pen.
The FN did a terrible job in attracting second round votes in each election, and ended up with lower vote shares in round two that round one almost across the board. (And it is worth remembering that the December regionals exaggerate the FN vote share as Paris did not have elections, and the FN performs poorly there.)
The only plausible situation where she wins is where she is up against a Left Wing candidate in round two (ideally Hollande), and where Republicans break 2:1 for her against Hollande. (Given Hollande will pick up all the Green transfers, almost all the Left Front, and all the MoDem votes.) And in the Deparment elections in March, where it was Socialist vs FN in the second round, the right wing vote appeared to go 4:1 in favour of the Socialist candidate.
I think we really have to wait and see how the summer plays out before declaring anything in the French election. If anything like November happens again and the culprits are again "refugees" then it will absolute turn the election on its head. FN will get a much fairer hearing than they do at the moment. Every time it kicks off in France it adds 5-7 points to MLP's poll rating. A long summer of another 2m immigrants trying to get into Europe, the possibility of terrorist attacks at the European Championships and the possibility of attacks like those in Cologne taking place in the euphoria of said championships leaves lot up to chance.
FN might be transfer toxic at the moment, as you rightly point out, but it may not remain that way. People said that PVV could never win in the Netherlands, and yet they are heading for victory and a coalition with the D66. That's another one to look at for, a PVV/D66 coalition may begin negotiations to leave the Euro or the EU entirely. The radical right is surging across Europe. If one of these parties does win, it will be interesting to see how the EU reacts to the hostility. Even Law and Justice are still committed to remain in the EU, but the likes of FN and the PVV are not. Both want to bring back the national currency and monetary control and both would like to leave the EU entirely (both countries also rejected the EU Constitution as well so there is some appetite to restrict the EU).
The FN are just too toxic - rightly so.
Under a thin veneer of respectable looking types, they devolve quite quickly through the ones who look like nightclub bouncers to the real thugs.
In any conceivable second round, everyone (apart from core FN supporters) will vote for the other candidate.
Reading Paul Flynn's tweets today... is he er... is he acquainted with Father Jack?
Someone put him to bed....
Paul Flynn @PaulFlynnMP 14m14 minutes ago Lambeth, London Day of orchestrated treachery as resignations were timed for news outlets with cunning malevolence to wound elected leader and party.
Well the analytical content is right The Manichean emotive exaggeration is no worse than what you see here about Muslims or feminists literally every day
I wonder how you manage to cope with the views that seem to horrify you so much on this blog.
By challenging them, I imagine.
I think that by the standards of internet fora this place is both pluralist and civilised. It probably does lean to the right but there are a lot of other voices.
It definitely looks like he's joining the shadow cabinet.
Is that good or bad? He seems well regarded by my Labour voting acquaintances (those I know vote Labour at any rate)
I could be wrong but I seem to recall he was very prominent in the Salman Rushdie book burning demonstrations in Bradford in the 1980's. Looking at back at those demonstrations now you can't help thinking we should have clamped down then and said it was not acceptable to call for the murder off A UK citizen simply because he offended your religion.
Vaz isn't a Muslim, But he did take part in demos:
It definitely looks like he's joining the shadow cabinet.
Is that good or bad? He seems well regarded by my Labour voting acquaintances (those I know vote Labour at any rate)
I could be wrong but I seem to recall he was very prominent in the Salman Rushdie book burning demonstrations in Bradford in the 1980's. Looking at back at those demonstrations now you can't help thinking we should have clamped down then and said it was not acceptable to call for the murder off A UK citizen simply because he offended your religion.
MaxPB: where are you getting your information on D66's political views? I was told - perhaps inaccurately - that they were like the Liberal Democrats.
A Dutch friend of mine said they are pretty right wing but socially quite liberal and are seen as the prime candidate for a coalition. Nothing else works, even VVD/PvdA/CDA together won't have the numbers if the polls are right. The same friend said that the polls may also be understating the VVD on 35-40 seats, he thinks that they may end up with rather more than that as there is some level of shy support for them, apparently it has something to do with the difference in polling companies some have a spiral of silence adjustment and others don't. The ones that don't always have VVD lower.
@NCPoliticsUK: 1/2 Getting a few questions re Leicester East. Labour has held it since 1987 - although CON won it once in 1983 on very similar boundaries,
@NCPoliticsUK: 2/2 subsequent demographic shifts have basically put it out of reach of CON and UKIP and the East Mids have always been a weak area for LIB
@MaxPB: I've looked at the Wikipedia page for D66 and they appear to a pro-EU bunch.
Very much like Ciu in Spain actually, but the problem is that they are the only candidates who are economically liberal. The CDA are said to be refusing to go into coalition with the VVD on principle, though it could be that they want to maximise their vote share and will relent once the election is over.
Talk of Le Pen become French President is utterly absurd. The French electoral system ensures that there is no chance of that happening at all.
Le Pen is about as likely to become President and Clegg was likely to become PM last election.
If she finishes in the top two against Hollande she could win, but not otherwise.
I think that's right. But, of course, Hollande will only get into the top two against Le Pen if he gets a lot more popular...
The only plausible path, really, is for something to happen to the Republicans - like a split - that sees them fielding two candidates who each get 15%. Or for a MoDem surge which takes exclusively from the Republicans.
Comments
This is the kind of article that needs to be on the BBC website and should form the basis of the news report.
But if France leaves the EU then suddenly Britain can form a separate Economic Community with France (and other countries who may follow France) that competes with the remnants of the EU, something that Britain tried to do in the 60's but scandinavian countries were too small economically back then.
Suddenly there would be 2 camps in europe, one led by Britain and one led by Germany competing for mastery of the continent.
From a tactical view point it would serve British interests to wait until the french presidential election to see what happens before deciding about EU membership.
Best bets are at the shoulders: Remain 40-45% at 8/1 and 60-65℅ at 8/1 IMHO. If the EU and the Remain campaign really goes south, the deal falls apart and Leave get their act together and argue the EEA is the best status quo option (targeting nervous swing professionals) i could see a leave vote of 56-57%.
On the other hand if Cameron surprises and gets a better than expected deal, the EU calms down and there's a disastrous and bitter Leave campaign we could get a remain vote of 62-63%.
The latter is probably marginally the better bet.
If Le Pen wins, she isn't going to be interested in creating the kind of free trade arrangement we would be keen on. She rails against globalisation and big business almost as much as against immigrants.
Seriously, spot on comment Sean.
Imagine if labour wasn't lead by an idiot, the government / May would be in hot water.
The resources devoted to keeping them here is the scandal.
Her game is french nationalism and that certainly can be exploited.
https://t.co/U2GaBbLyqr https://t.co/5qp2usV6Rt
Paul Flynn @PaulFlynnMP 14m14 minutes ago Lambeth, London
Day of orchestrated treachery as resignations were timed for news outlets with
cunning malevolence to wound elected leader and party.
We can do a new economic community from the ruins of the last one.
@PaulFlynnMP I really don't think they were. Accept both sides can have principles. Not like @KevanJonesMP wasn't pro-Trident before today.
s
Tom Hunter @OneLifeStand87 8m8 minutes ago
@PaulFlynnMP And considering the number of tweets you've deleted today I'd spend longer thinking before you post. It's not helping.
Gareth Richards @dgarethrichards 5m5 minutes ago
@PaulFlynnMP for goodness sake stop it Paul
Surely that is extraordinary for just a cabinet reshuffle...
The FN did a terrible job in attracting second round votes in each election, and ended up with lower vote shares in round two that round one almost across the board. (And it is worth remembering that the December regionals exaggerate the FN vote share as Paris did not have elections, and the FN performs poorly there.)
The only plausible situation where she wins is where she is up against a Left Wing candidate in round two (ideally Hollande), and where Republicans break 2:1 for her against Hollande. (Given Hollande will pick up all the Green transfers, almost all the Left Front, and all the MoDem votes.) And in the Deparment elections in March, where it was Socialist vs FN in the second round, the right wing vote appeared to go 4:1 in favour of the Socialist candidate.
So, a Le Pen victory - which I would rate as extremely unlikely - would not be a good outcome for the French people. And I don't think it would be a good outcome for the British for Mrs Le Pen to be running France.
According to witnesses, the males, between 15 and 35 years old, tightly surrounded women in groups of 30 or 40, before groping them and mugging them and their partners. Many threw firecrackers into the crowds, adding to the mayhem that ensued, which later forced the police to clear the square.
Egypt: Patrick Kingsley in Cairo
Friday 5 July 2013 12.57 BST Last modified on Thursday 22 May 2014 01.01 BST
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/05/egypt-women-rape-sexual-assault-tahrir-square
"We're talking about mob sexual assaults, from stripping women naked and dragging them on the floor – to rape."
The known unknowns are the problems you anticipate, but you can't be sure what their effects will be.
The unknown unknowns are the problems that come out of nowhere.
Clinton 47%
Sanders 44%
O'Malley 3%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/01/trump-maintains-lead-in-nh-dem-race-close.html
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/684858046355472384
The Manichean emotive exaggeration is no worse than what you see here about Muslims or feminists literally every day
However this isn't the best of times. I think that "true believers" of one thing or another are far more likely to sign up for online polls so I think the flaws inherent in online polls will be exaggerated in a matter like this - where some people care deeply and passionately but most others are a bit 'meh'.
Some people are too thick to understand comments sometimes and then blow up their ignorance into mocking the smarter person. This was one of those times.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/01/06/big-dividing-lines-eu-age-education-and-newspaper-/
Of course, there can also be unknown knowns.
When I saw this I asked a Muslim friend, who said exactly what you have posted. He said you are also permitted to do your fast at a different date to make up for it if you really feel strongly about this. He did exactly this a number of years ago.
FN might be transfer toxic at the moment, as you rightly point out, but it may not remain that way. People said that PVV could never win in the Netherlands, and yet they are heading for victory and a coalition with the D66. That's another one to look at for, a PVV/D66 coalition may begin negotiations to leave the Euro or the EU entirely. The radical right is surging across Europe. If one of these parties does win, it will be interesting to see how the EU reacts to the hostility. Even Law and Justice are still committed to remain in the EU, but the likes of FN and the PVV are not. Both want to bring back the national currency and monetary control and both would like to leave the EU entirely (both countries also rejected the EU Constitution as well so there is some appetite to restrict the EU).
The blog doesn't embody the views of the Powellite commenters who are a tiny minority of its readers and who reason from anecdote
Believe it or not most of the value in PB.com is from Mike and not comments about the need for people to educate themselves about how all Muslims are awful
Le Pen is about as likely to become President and Clegg was likely to become PM last election.
In fact, she's five points down on where she was a year ago.
Under a thin veneer of respectable looking types, they devolve quite quickly through the ones who look like nightclub bouncers to the real thugs.
In any conceivable second round, everyone (apart from core FN supporters) will vote for the other candidate.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Vaz
@NCPoliticsUK: 2/2 subsequent demographic shifts have basically put it out of reach of CON and UKIP and the East Mids have always been a weak area for LIB
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Vaz
The only plausible path, really, is for something to happen to the Republicans - like a split - that sees them fielding two candidates who each get 15%. Or for a MoDem surge which takes exclusively from the Republicans.
I just don't see it.