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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What all CON ministers have been wanting: A definitive guid

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    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    That is certainly the perceived wisdom, but why? What is the point of taking over the Labour Party if in the process you make it unelectable? That makes no sense to me.

    At the very least are they not banking on achieving power because the pendulum must swing?

    I agree, as barmy as it seems the Corbynites must believe Corbynism has legs.

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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,099
    @Speedy: this is a very interesting article on Juppe vs Sarkozy - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c8ae84d6-07b2-11e5-a58f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3wQ6CoCkd
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,078
    glw said:

    That is certainly the perceived wisdom, but why? What is the point of taking over the Labour Party if in the process you make it unelectable? That makes no sense to me.

    At the very least are they not banking on achieving power because the pendulum must swing?

    I agree, as barmy as it seems the Corbynites must believe Corbynism has legs.

    Winning even the Labour leadership contest seemed preposterous when they set out under Corbyn. Having achieved that, why wouldn't they think anything was possible, however much things seemed stacked against that possibility?

    And if it did fail, at least they tried to present their 'true' Labour vision for once I guess.
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    TomTom Posts: 273
    glw said:

    That is certainly the perceived wisdom, but why? What is the point of taking over the Labour Party if in the process you make it unelectable? That makes no sense to me.

    At the very least are they not banking on achieving power because the pendulum must swing?

    I agree, as barmy as it seems the Corbynites must believe Corbynism has legs.

    But as Southam says their whole raison d'etre for 30 years has been trying to win control of the party. Unlike the 80s there is no active or creative left in local Government (remember that Blunkett was regarded as a radical leftist in those days for example).

    Labour in local Government is almost entirely 'social democrat' now. Since the fall of the Berlin wall far leftisim is lifestyle identity politics and how it makes you feel not whether you achieve anything. Corbyn chimed with that mood perfectly and the combination of old leftists and twitter social justice warriors is killing the party.
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    notme said:

    Vaz isn't a Muslim, But he did take part in Rushdie demos:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Vaz

    very much a christian i believe....
    Indeed - he is in fact a distant relative of a saint.
    I think this is one of the more remarkable thinks about British society - people can complete pillocks without being muslim. Its worth remembering.

    I can well see the reasons why Harman broke the rules to appoint him Chairman of the Home Affairs Committee - but how is it that he is still in charge?
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098


    Only my opinion, but I suspect Military personnel past and present will be disgusted that Hyacinth Bucket is now the shadow defence secretary.

    I rather think that most squaddies past and present have not been enamoured with Labour Party Defence Secretaries, actual or shadow, for a very long time. Not that Cameron and Co are high on their Christmas card list, either.

    Every Conservative administration, with the possible exception of Heath, has cut defence almost as its first priority on gaining office. Cameron has not just come up with the usual cuts he has gone further, had two bites at the cherry, made promises and broke them (especially as regards the military covenant), and got his sidekick to fiddle the books so he can claim he is spending more on defence than he actually is.

    Not your intention I'm sure, but you sound like an apologist for Ms Bucket’s appointment.
    It certainly wasn't my intention to give that impression, Mr. Clare. I think that Mrs. Bucket's appointment is completely irrelevant as is just about every other appointment made by Corbyn to his Shadow Cabinet. Who gives a flying f**k what any of them say? They aren't going to get near the reins of power to implement anything, at least not in the foreseeable future.

    Looking at defence in particular what is the old trout going to come up with anyway? The armed forces should be cut even further? Cameron will probably agree, the next round of cuts is already penciled in for 2020. We are going to build four new submarines to carry Trident and maintain the CASD, the majority in the House is already there for that so Corbyn's and Bucket's views don't matter.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,078

    notme said:

    Vaz isn't a Muslim, But he did take part in Rushdie demos:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Vaz

    very much a christian i believe....
    Indeed - he is in fact a distant relative of a saint.
    I think this is one of the more remarkable thinks about British society - people can complete pillocks without being muslim. Its worth remembering.

    I can well see the reasons why Harman broke the rules to appoint him Chairman of the Home Affairs Committee - but how is it that he is still in charge?
    I had no idea he was so...flawed. He seems reasonable and effective in post, on TV anyway, and my Labour contacts (such as they are) think he's a good figure.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    kle4 said:

    Winning even the Labour leadership contest seemed preposterous when they set out under Corbyn. Having achieved that, why wouldn't they think anything was possible, however much things seemed stacked against that possibility?

    And if it did fail, at least they tried to present their 'true' Labour vision for once I guess.

    Well obviously we can see that it is a hugely more challenging task to win a general election compared to the Labour leadership with some very silly rules and daft nominations. But yes you can sort of see why they think "we got this far, let's go for it." It will probably turn out about as well as Operation Barbarossa ultimately did, but they don't realise that yet.
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    HYUFD said:

    'A number of Glasgow-based veterans of the campaign to keep Scotland in Britain have launched a new party ahead of May’s elections to the Scottish Parliament, The Scotsman reports.

    Properly titled ‘A Better Britain – Unionist Party’, the group seems intended to offer a home to Labour-leaning unionists who can’t bring themselves to make the jump to the Scottish Conservatives.

    It combines a staunchly unionist constitutional position, including opposition to new powers and restoration of pre-2007 Scottish Executive branding, with a distinctly centrist policy platform including a 50p higher rate of income tax.

    The Unionist Party plans to concentrate on a small number of areas and only contest list seats, to assuage concerns that it might split the vote.'
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/better-together-party-to-contest-holyrood-2016-election-1-3991779

    Another attempt to form a Unionist party in Scotland.
    Speedy said:

    HYUFD said:

    'A number of Glasgow-based veterans of the campaign to keep Scotland in Britain have launched a new party ahead of May’s elections to the Scottish Parliament, The Scotsman reports.

    Properly titled ‘A Better Britain – Unionist Party’, the group seems intended to offer a home to Labour-leaning unionists who can’t bring themselves to make the jump to the Scottish Conservatives.

    It combines a staunchly unionist constitutional position, including opposition to new powers and restoration of pre-2007 Scottish Executive branding, with a distinctly centrist policy platform including a 50p higher rate of income tax.

    The Unionist Party plans to concentrate on a small number of areas and only contest list seats, to assuage concerns that it might split the vote.'
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/better-together-party-to-contest-holyrood-2016-election-1-3991779

    That could be a new development in scotland.
    No it won't be.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,040
    edited January 2016

    I rather think that most squaddies past and present have not been enamoured with Labour Party Defence Secretaries, actual or shadow, for a very long time. Not that Cameron and Co are high on their Christmas card list, either.

    Every Conservative administration, with the possible exception of Heath, has cut defence almost as its first priority on gaining office. Cameron has not just come up with the usual cuts he has gone further, had two bites at the cherry, made promises and broke them (especially as regards the military covenant), and got his sidekick to fiddle the books so he can claim he is spending more on defence than he actually is.

    The officer classes and defence companies occasionally prefer Labour Defence Secretaries: they go native and give the brass everything they ask for, even if it's ridiculous (FRES, Nimrod). Conservative ones have the virtue of being more cynical and actually demanding results.

    However, the Corbynites do seem to be sui generis...

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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903

    The Abbott interview

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugIKeG7AChI

    Is she wearing biking leathers?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    edited January 2016
    I think she hopes by speeeeakkkkkking sooooooo slowwwwwlllyyy Evan will just get bored or forget the question and / or time will run out for the interview.

    Evan....Evvvvvann....Evvvvvvvaaannnnnnnnn....
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    TomTom Posts: 273

    The Abbott interview

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugIKeG7AChI

    Is she wearing biking leathers?
    Yes, its a coded reference to her trip to East Germany with the boss.
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903


    Only my opinion, but I suspect Military personnel past and present will be disgusted that Hyacinth Bucket is now the shadow defence secretary.

    I rather think that most squaddies past and present have not been enamoured with Labour Party Defence Secretaries, actual or shadow, for a very long time. Not that Cameron and Co are high on their Christmas card list, either.

    Every Conservative administration, with the possible exception of Heath, has cut defence almost as its first priority on gaining office. Cameron has not just come up with the usual cuts he has gone further, had two bites at the cherry, made promises and broke them (especially as regards the military covenant), and got his sidekick to fiddle the books so he can claim he is spending more on defence than he actually is.

    Not your intention I'm sure, but you sound like an apologist for Ms Bucket’s appointment.
    It certainly wasn't my intention to give that impression, Mr. Clare. I think that Mrs. Bucket's appointment is completely irrelevant as is just about every other appointment made by Corbyn to his Shadow Cabinet. Who gives a flying f**k what any of them say? They aren't going to get near the reins of power to implement anything, at least not in the foreseeable future.

    Looking at defence in particular what is the old trout going to come up with anyway? The armed forces should be cut even further? Cameron will probably agree, the next round of cuts is already penciled in for 2020. We are going to build four new submarines to carry Trident and maintain the CASD, the majority in the House is already there for that so Corbyn's and Bucket's views don't matter.
    We are maintaining defence spending at 2% we are buying more equipment for the SAS we are committing to and spending more on drones and intelligence. We spend more on defence than virtually any other country in the world. We inherited an absolute shambles from labour.
    Your comparison of Lady Nugee with the conservatives is crass. But no surprise.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,015
    Just catching up with today's events. I note the treacherous Benn is still shadow Foreign Sec.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    Just to check - how did today's resigners vote on Syria ?
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976


    Only my opinion, but I suspect Military personnel past and present will be disgusted that Hyacinth Bucket is now the shadow defence secretary.

    I rather think that most squaddies past and present have not been enamoured with Labour Party Defence Secretaries, actual or shadow, for a very long time. Not that Cameron and Co are high on their Christmas card list, either.

    Every Conservative administration, with the possible exception of Heath, has cut defence almost as its first priority on gaining office. Cameron has not just come up with the usual cuts he has gone further, had two bites at the cherry, made promises and broke them (especially as regards the military covenant), and got his sidekick to fiddle the books so he can claim he is spending more on defence than he actually is.

    Not your intention I'm sure, but you sound like an apologist for Ms Bucket’s appointment.
    It certainly wasn't my intention to give that impression, Mr. Clare. I think that Mrs. Bucket's appointment is completely irrelevant as is just about every other appointment made by Corbyn to his Shadow Cabinet. Who gives a flying f**k what any of them say? They aren't going to get near the reins of power to implement anything, at least not in the foreseeable future.

    Looking at defence in particular what is the old trout going to come up with anyway? The armed forces should be cut even further? Cameron will probably agree, the next round of cuts is already penciled in for 2020. We are going to build four new submarines to carry Trident and maintain the CASD, the majority in the House is already there for that so Corbyn's and Bucket's views don't matter.
    Mr Llama, kindly not use my post as a conduit for your pet peeves. Thanks in advance.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,078
    Pulpstar said:

    Just to check - how did today's resigners vote on Syria ?

    Reynolds said he was against, I believe.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187
    rcs1000 said:

    @Speedy: this is a very interesting article on Juppe vs Sarkozy - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c8ae84d6-07b2-11e5-a58f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3wQ6CoCkd

    Juppe may be more popular with the public but he has no chance of beating Sarkozy amongst Republican grassroots
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,300
    edited January 2016
    Six British universities are facing an inquiry after the controversial human rights group Cage used meetings on campus to encourage the “sabotage” of the government’s official anti-extremism programme.

    Cage attended nine talks at six British universities between September and November 2015, eight of which included Mr Begg.

    The University of Manchester, the University of Birmingham and King’s College London, all members of the he Russell Group of elite universities, allowed Cage on campus four times between them; London University’s School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) had three Cage events and Bradford University and East London University had one each.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/12085765/Six-universities-face-inquiry-over-Cage-campus-talks.html
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    viewcode said:

    I rather think that most squaddies past and present have not been enamoured with Labour Party Defence Secretaries, actual or shadow, for a very long time. Not that Cameron and Co are high on their Christmas card list, either.

    Every Conservative administration, with the possible exception of Heath, has cut defence almost as its first priority on gaining office. Cameron has not just come up with the usual cuts he has gone further, had two bites at the cherry, made promises and broke them (especially as regards the military covenant), and got his sidekick to fiddle the books so he can claim he is spending more on defence than he actually is.

    The officer classes and defence companies occasionally prefer Labour Defence Secretaries: they go native and give the brass everything they ask for, even if it's ridiculous (FRES, Nimrod). Conservative ones have the virtue of being more cynical and actually demanding results.

    However, the Corbynites do seem to be sui generis...

    Weren't FRES and the Nimrod MPA upgrade kicked off under the Major government? Fair comment that the decision to cancel the latter should have been taken a lot earlier (the people who came up the with plan to start with should have been shot) but to cancel it without a replacement MPA was plain stupid.

    That decision was probably down the RAF's fighter/bomber pilot dominance. A very old problem. Look for example at the History of Coastal command in WW2. We nearly starved, and lost the war, because the RAF would not allocate aircraft and resources to where they were needed as opposed to their grand scheme to bomb Germany into submission.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098


    Only my opinion, but I suspect Military personnel past and present will be disgusted that Hyacinth Bucket is now the shadow defence secretary.

    I rather think that most squaddies past and present have not been enamoured with Labour Party Defence Secretaries, actual or shadow, for a very long time. Not that Cameron and Co are high on their Christmas card list, either.

    Every Conservative administration, with the possible exception of Heath, has cut defence almost as its first priority on gaining office. Cameron has not just come up with the usual cuts he has gone further, had two bites at the cherry, made promises and broke them (especially as regards the military covenant), and got his sidekick to fiddle the books so he can claim he is spending more on defence than he actually is.

    Not your intention I'm sure, but you sound like an apologist for Ms Bucket’s appointment.
    It certainly wasn't my intention to give that impression, Mr. Clare. I think that Mrs. Bucket's appointment is completely irrelevant as is just about every other appointment made by Corbyn to his Shadow Cabinet. Who gives a flying f**k what any of them say? They aren't going to get near the reins of power to implement anything, at least not in the foreseeable future.

    Looking at defence in particular what is the old trout going to come up with anyway? The armed forces should be cut even further? Cameron will probably agree, the next round of cuts is already penciled in for 2020. We are going to build four new submarines to carry Trident and maintain the CASD, the majority in the House is already there for that so Corbyn's and Bucket's views don't matter.
    We are maintaining defence spending at 2% we are buying more equipment for the SAS we are committing to and spending more on drones and intelligence. We spend more on defence than virtually any other country in the world. We inherited an absolute shambles from labour.
    Your comparison of Lady Nugee with the conservatives is crass. But no surprise.
    Your blind defence of HMG's plans regardless of their effectiveness or even veracity comes as no surprise to me either.

    You may wish to consider how, if we spend so much, Japan has armed forces both larger and better equipped than our own.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,099


    Only my opinion, but I suspect Military personnel past and present will be disgusted that Hyacinth Bucket is now the shadow defence secretary.

    I rather think that most squaddies past and present have not been enamoured with Labour Party Defence Secretaries, actual or shadow, for a very long time. Not that Cameron and Co are high on their Christmas card list, either.

    Every Conservative administration, with the possible exception of Heath, has cut defence almost as its first priority on gaining office. Cameron has not just come up with the usual cuts he has gone further, had two bites at the cherry, made promises and broke them (especially as regards the military covenant), and got his sidekick to fiddle the books so he can claim he is spending more on defence than he actually is.

    Not your intention I'm sure, but you sound like an apologist for Ms Bucket’s appointment.
    It certainly wasn't my intention to give that impression, Mr. Clare. I think that Mrs. Bucket's appointment is completely irrelevant as is just about every other appointment made by Corbyn to his Shadow Cabinet. Who gives a flying f**k what any of them say? They aren't going to get near the reins of power to implement anything, at least not in the foreseeable future.

    Looking at defence in particular what is the old trout going to come up with anyway? The armed forces should be cut even further? Cameron will probably agree, the next round of cuts is already penciled in for 2020. We are going to build four new submarines to carry Trident and maintain the CASD, the majority in the House is already there for that so Corbyn's and Bucket's views don't matter.
    We are maintaining defence spending at 2% we are buying more equipment for the SAS we are committing to and spending more on drones and intelligence. We spend more on defence than virtually any other country in the world. We inherited an absolute shambles from labour.
    Your comparison of Lady Nugee with the conservatives is crass. But no surprise.
    Your blind defence of HMG's plans regardless of their effectiveness or even veracity comes as no surprise to me either.

    You may wish to consider how, if we spend so much, Japan has armed forces both larger and better equipped than our own.
    Japan is twice the size of the UK on any measure
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,005
    Off topic: Can't believe Chris Gayle might be banned from BBL !
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    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic: Can't believe Chris Gayle might be banned from BBL !

    Seriously...I mean seriously. The guy is a twunk. He is a well known womanizer. But really....I mean really...What he said wasn't even that bad. It was more cringe worthy than anything else. Nothing worse than the terrible chat up lines guys try every weekend in bars around the world.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2016
    No surprise — Jacqui Smith on Sky News Paper Review defending the idiotic decision to change exams to fit in with certain religious practices.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,099
    AndyJS said:

    No surprise — Jacqui Smith on Sky News Paper Review defending the idiotic decision to change exams to fit in with certain religious practices.

    I'm assuming we don't make any other religious exceptions for exams.
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    TomTom Posts: 273
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    No surprise — Jacqui Smith on Sky News Paper Review defending the idiotic decision to change exams to fit in with certain religious practices.

    I'm assuming we don't make any other religious exceptions for exams.
    It's a while back now but I don't recall sitting exams on Good Friday, Eatser Monday, or Christmas Day.
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    AndyJS said:

    No surprise — Jacqui Smith on Sky News Paper Review defending the idiotic decision to change exams to fit in with certain religious practices.

    I notice that shock horror she has got herself the gig as head of a public sector organisation.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,099
    Tom said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    No surprise — Jacqui Smith on Sky News Paper Review defending the idiotic decision to change exams to fit in with certain religious practices.

    I'm assuming we don't make any other religious exceptions for exams.
    It's a while back now but I don't recall sitting exams on Good Friday, Eatser Monday, or Christmas Day.
    Yes: but if a Jewish child has an exam on Yom Kippur (for example), would they be able to sit it at a different time?
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    TomTom Posts: 273
    Don't know. But in this case I think the story is that there is a 'window' in which they traditionally hold exams and as far as possible they are trying to hold the most common ones in the period where it doesn't overlap with Ramadan - albeit many are still held during Ramadan and he children have to site them. That doesn't on the face of it strike me as at all unreasonable.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2016
    As others have pointed out before, Labour are essentially f****d in the long-term because the diversity that obsesses them is destroying the consensus that used to exist on issues like welfare. David Goodhart's "progressive dilemma":

    http://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/mar/27/why-left-wrong-mass-immigration
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    TomTom Posts: 273
    AndyJS said:

    As others have pointed out before, Labour are essentially f****d in the long-term because the diversity that obsesses them is destroying the consensus that used to exist on issues like welfare. David Goodhart's "progressive dilemma":

    http://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/mar/27/why-left-wrong-mass-immigration

    Not sure I buy that. The model had begun to break down anyway due to wider pressures. It does undoubtedly cause problems for a traditional 'social democratic' model but not necessarily a left liberal politics. Despite being catastrophically bad at the last two elections they didn't lose the popular vote by as much as you might have expected because the changes affect the right as well. I suspect we become more fragmented generally but that doesn't create a secular trend towards any particular party. Lots of people have made the opposite argument in the states - at least at presidential level.
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    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    The whole Ramadan thing is just wrong. Not because we shouldn't accommodate genuine concerns - but that the teaching of mainstream Islam is that fasting is not required if it interrupts the education of the child.

    So we are creating a solution to a problem that need not exist.

    There will always be those who adhere to different, more extreme, sects - but we should not allow them to dictate public policy.

    By reacting in the way that appears to be happening, it will only increase anti-Islamic sentiment. And it could all have been so easily avoided.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793
    Dugher:

    Pat is a well-liked, experienced and intelligent campaigner who comes from a solid working class background.

    These are qualities so sadly lacking amongst many of Jeremy Corbyn’s advisers in the ‘Islington set.’


    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jeremy-corbyns-reshuffle-been-like-7130013

    And so a meme is (re?) born?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    "Two creepy life-size dolls take to the Tube to launch Derren Brown’s psychological theme park ride"

    http://metro.co.uk/2015/12/03/two-creepy-life-size-dolls-take-to-the-tube-to-launch-derren-browns-psychological-theme-park-ride-5542353/
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    Tis a strange one. I guess there could be an innocent explanation, like he has being getting lots of abuse or somebody got access to his accounts and decided it would be highly amusing to delete them.
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    "as he was trolled by dozens of users."

    this sounds like an explanation, not "without explanation"


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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "as he was trolled by dozens of users."

    this sounds like an explanation, not "without explanation"


    I hope you are not accusing the Mail of lacking internal consistency and logic!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,078

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic: Can't believe Chris Gayle might be banned from BBL !

    Seriously...I mean seriously. The guy is a twunk. He is a well known womanizer. But really....I mean really...What he said wasn't even that bad. It was more cringe worthy than anything else. Nothing worse than the terrible chat up lines guys try every weekend in bars around the world.
    It was inappropriate, but he was fined and I thought apologised, what more is needed.
This discussion has been closed.