@NCPoliticsUK: 1/2 Getting a few questions re Leicester East. Labour has held it since 1987 - although CON won it once in 1983 on very similar boundaries,
@NCPoliticsUK: 2/2 subsequent demographic shifts have basically put it out of reach of CON and UKIP and the East Mids have always been a weak area for LIB
As an aside, having crunched the numbers on both the elections in France this year (the March Departmental ones, and the December Regional ones), I really struggle to see a path to the Presidency for Le Pen.
The only plausible situation where she wins is where she is up against a Left Wing candidate in round two (ideally Hollande), and where Republicans break 2:1 for her against Hollande. (Given Hollande will pick up all the Green transfers, almost all the Left Front, and all the MoDem votes.) And in the Deparment elections in March, where it was Socialist vs FN in the second round, the right wing vote appeared to go 4:1 in favour of the Socialist candidate.
I think we really have to wait and see how the summer plays out before declaring anything in the French election. If anything like November happens again and the culprits are again "refugees" then it will absolute turn the election on its head. FN will get a much fairer hearing than they do at the moment. Every time it kicks off in France it adds 5-7 points to MLP's poll rating. A long summer of another 2m immigrants trying to get into Europe, the possibility of terrorist attacks at the European Championships and the possibility of attacks like those in Cologne taking place in the euphoria of said championships leaves lot up to chance.
FN might be transfer toxic at the moment, as you rightly point out, but it may not remain that way. People said that PVV could never win in the Netherlands, and yet they are heading for victory and a coalition with the D66. That's another one to look at for, a PVV/D66 coalition may begin negotiations to leave the Euro or the EU entirely. The radical right is surging across Europe. If one of these parties does win, it will be interesting to see how the EU reacts to the hostility. Even Law and Justice are still committed to remain in the EU, but the likes of FN and the PVV are not. Both want to bring back the national currency and monetary control and both would like to leave the EU entirely (both countries also rejected the EU Constitution as well so there is some appetite to restrict the EU).
Under a thin veneer of respectable looking types, they devolve quite quickly through the ones who look like nightclub bouncers to the real thugs.
In any conceivable second round, everyone (apart from core FN supporters) will vote for the other candidate.
Yes, I think so too. I think MLP could be Hollande in a run off because UMP supporters really don't like him, but I don't think there is much chance of Hollande making it into the second round. More likely the run off will be between MLP and one of Juppe or Sarkozy, both of which would beat MLP hands down.
Think it might be worth pointing out at this stage. Remember what has happened in the recent past in regards to allegations, and "Innocent face" and all that have ended up with legal proceedings against them.
Reading Paul Flynn's tweets today... is he er... is he acquainted with Father Jack?
Someone put him to bed....
Paul Flynn @PaulFlynnMP 14m14 minutes ago Lambeth, London Day of orchestrated treachery as resignations were timed for news outlets with cunning malevolence to wound elected leader and party.
Well the analytical content is right The Manichean emotive exaggeration is no worse than what you see here about Muslims or feminists literally every day
I wonder how you manage to cope with the views that seem to horrify you so much on this blog.
Calm down dear The blog doesn't embody the views of the Powellite commenters who are a tiny minority of its readers and who reason from anecdote Believe it or not most of the value in PB.com is from Mike and not comments about the need for people to educate themselves about how all Muslims are awful
Each to their own, I seldom read Mr. Smithson's headers - they tend to be rather predictable and for me the value in the site comes from the comments of some of our regular contributors. Mind you in pure cash terms there hasn't been a lot of value in this site for some years. When I first started visiting there were some very knowledgeable gambling fellows on here and I regularly made a few bob from following them (Goodwood 2009 was wonderful).
Think it might be worth pointing out at this stage. Remember what has happened in the recent past in regards to allegations, and "Innocent face" and all that have ended up with legal proceedings against them.
Not aimed at you, some people on twitter are so fucking stupid/smearing gits.
Not aimed at you, some people on twitter are so fucking stupid/smearing gits.
I am guilty as charged in seeing that front page and thinking it was tomorrows. I just saw it on my twitter feed on my phone and fell for it. I should know better than trust tweets that aren't from reliable sources.
My original point still stands in regards to people being careful about what they write.
About any possible by-election in Leicester East (Keith Vaz), it's 60% asian, white Britons are only 28%, with very few pensioners. Even if it's in the Tory heartland of the East Midlands I think Labour is very safe there, perhaps they can take 60% or more.
...I said it on here a few days ago. Leave needs to get across that a vote for Remain puts us on the path to a European super state where our votes mean nothing and we have no power to control our own laws, everything will be done in Brussels....
You do realise that the European Union Act 2011 specifically prevents the outcome you describe?
Reading Paul Flynn's tweets today... is he er... is he acquainted with Father Jack?
Someone put him to bed....
Paul Flynn @PaulFlynnMP 14m14 minutes ago Lambeth, London Day of orchestrated treachery as resignations were timed for news outlets with cunning malevolence to wound elected leader and party.
Well the analytical content is right The Manichean emotive exaggeration is no worse than what you see here about Muslims or feminists literally every day
I wonder how you manage to cope with the views that seem to horrify you so much on this blog.
Calm down dear The blog doesn't embody the views of the Powellite commenters who are a tiny minority of its readers and who reason from anecdote Believe it or not most of the value in PB.com is from Mike and not comments about the need for people to educate themselves about how all Muslims are awful
Each to their own, I seldom read Mr. Smithson's headers - they tend to be rather predictable and for me the value in the site comes from the comments of some of our regular contributors. Mind you in pure cash terms there hasn't been a lot of value in this site for some years. When I first started visiting there were some very knowledgeable gambling fellows on here and I regularly made a few bob from following them (Goodwood 2009 was wonderful).
The comments are 10 times more predictable than the headers
MaxPB: where are you getting your information on D66's political views? I was told - perhaps inaccurately - that they were like the Liberal Democrats.
Totally correct, they are Cleggites (weren't his family Dutch?)
Not at all. The current PM (Rutte, VVD) comes from the Lib Dems of the Netherlands. The CDA is much closer to the Tories(and the CDU in Germany) and the PvdA are Labour's sister party iirc. D66 are like the Liberal party before they merged with the SDP. Economically right, socially liberal. The PVV would be UKIP, ofc.
Not aimed at you, some people on twitter are so fucking stupid/smearing gits.
I am guilty as charged in seeing that front page and thinking it was tomorrows. I just saw it on my twitter feed on my phone and fell for it. I should know better than trust tweets that aren't from reliable sources.
My original point still stands in regards to people being careful about what they write.
It's ok, on this topic, I've learnt to exercise huge amounts of caution.
Think it might be worth pointing out at this stage. Remember what has happened in the recent past in regards to allegations, and "Innocent face" and all that have ended up with legal proceedings against them.
Not aimed at you, some people on twitter are so fucking stupid/smearing gits.
Reading Paul Flynn's tweets today... is he er... is he acquainted with Father Jack?
Someone put him to bed....
Paul Flynn @PaulFlynnMP 14m14 minutes ago Lambeth, London Day of orchestrated treachery as resignations were timed for news outlets with cunning malevolence to wound elected leader and party.
Well the analytical content is right The Manichean emotive exaggeration is no worse than what you see here about Muslims or feminists literally every day
I wonder how you manage to cope with the views that seem to horrify you so much on this blog.
Calm down dear The blog doesn't embody the views of the Powellite commenters who are a tiny minority of its readers and who reason from anecdote Believe it or not most of the value in PB.com is from Mike and not comments about the need for people to educate themselves about how all Muslims are awful
Each to their own, I seldom read Mr. Smithson's headers - they tend to be rather predictable and for me the value in the site comes from the comments of some of our regular contributors. Mind you in pure cash terms there hasn't been a lot of value in this site for some years. When I first started visiting there were some very knowledgeable gambling fellows on here and I regularly made a few bob from following them (Goodwood 2009 was wonderful).
The comments are 10 times more predictable than the headers
The Sun front page looks very anodyne. What am I missing?
Some people on twitter are reposting a [fake] old Sun Front Page (often claiming it as tomorrows) and connecting that with other news. A quick search of twitter will show you all you need to know. Lots of people's tweets are most definitely actionable.
Twitter is going wild over why Keith Vaz has deleted his Twitter and Facebook accounts.
There were rumours in the last few hours that he is entering the shadow cabinet, seems logical if those rumours are true.
The disgraced Vaz, who was suspended from the Commons after an enquiry found that he'd made false allegations about a policewoman? The same MP who was dismissed from his post as Europe Minister, after the Hinduja affair? Corbyn's gone through the bottom of the barrel if he gets a Shadow Cabinet post.
@MaxPB: I've looked at the Wikipedia page for D66 and they appear to a pro-EU bunch.
Very much like Ciu in Spain actually, but the problem is that they are the only candidates who are economically liberal. The CDA are said to be refusing to go into coalition with the VVD on principle, though it could be that they want to maximise their vote share and will relent once the election is over.
Given the completely proportional nature of the Dutch electoral system, whatever emerges will be a coalition. If the PVV are north of 40 seats, it will be very hard to exclude them.
That being said, support for the Euro is incredibly high in the Netherlands. A TNS poll in November has 75-to-21 saying it had been good for the Dutch economy (this is one of the highest levels of support across the EZ). I simply can't see the Netherlands pulling out of the EU or the Euro under those circumstances.
So bad, she seemed to be flustered that current Labour party policy is to have a replacement for Trident.
Couldn't answer what would happen if the Syria vote was next week, would there be a free vote, would Benn make his speech from the backbenches etc
By current standards, that doesn't sounds like a car crash, that sounds like a perfectly normal interview with a Labour spokesperson i.e Ken or Dianne.
Twitter is going wild over why Keith Vaz has deleted his Twitter and Facebook accounts.
There were rumours in the last few hours that he is entering the shadow cabinet, seems logical if those rumours are true.
The disgraced Vaz, who was suspended from the Commons after an enquiry found that he'd made false allegations about a policewoman? The same MP who was dismissed from his post as Europe Minister, after the Hinduja affair? Corbyn's gone through the bottom of the barrel if he gets a Shadow Cabinet post.
'A number of Glasgow-based veterans of the campaign to keep Scotland in Britain have launched a new party ahead of May’s elections to the Scottish Parliament, The Scotsman reports.
Properly titled ‘A Better Britain – Unionist Party’, the group seems intended to offer a home to Labour-leaning unionists who can’t bring themselves to make the jump to the Scottish Conservatives.
It combines a staunchly unionist constitutional position, including opposition to new powers and restoration of pre-2007 Scottish Executive branding, with a distinctly centrist policy platform including a 50p higher rate of income tax.
MaxPB: where are you getting your information on D66's political views? I was told - perhaps inaccurately - that they were like the Liberal Democrats.
Totally correct, they are Cleggites (weren't his family Dutch?)
Not at all. The current PM (Rutte, VVD) comes from the Lib Dems of the Netherlands. The CDA is much closer to the Tories(and the CDU in Germany) and the PvdA are Labour's sister party iirc. D66 are like the Liberal party before they merged with the SDP. Economically right, socially liberal. The PVV would be UKIP, ofc.
The VVD is the Dutch party most similar to the Conservatives. Unlike the Lib Dems it is the most economic-right party, it is universally market-liberal, and it contains a significant (though not a majority) anti-immigration sentiment. I would probably vote VVD if not D66 if I were Dutch The CDA are an economically centrist party with mild Christian socially-conservative tendencies. Not like the Tories at all. There is nothing in the UK like it. Perhaps the SDLP? D66 are much more urban and youth-oriented than the Liberal Party was and more economic liberal (which the Liberal Party, of course, was not - though people systemically seem to misremember this) And the PVV are the reverse mirror image of Ukip on most issues, apart from race and religious matters, on which they are far more extreme than Ukip, I would say close to white nationalism ("get rid of the Moroccans"), but YMMV
Twitter is going wild over why Keith Vaz has deleted his Twitter and Facebook accounts.
There were rumours in the last few hours that he is entering the shadow cabinet, seems logical if those rumours are true.
The disgraced Vaz, who was suspended from the Commons after an enquiry found that he'd made false allegations about a policewoman? The same MP who was dismissed from his post as Europe Minister, after the Hinduja affair? Corbyn's gone through the bottom of the barrel if he gets a Shadow Cabinet post.
His expenses were interesting too.
Wikipedia spells it out very clearly. Some people should not be allowed to play a part in political life in this country.
So bad, she seemed to be flustered that current Labour party policy is to have a replacement for Trident.
Couldn't answer what would happen if the Syria vote was next week, would there be a free vote, would Benn make his speech from the backbenches etc
By current standards, that doesn't sounds like a car crash, that sounds like a perfectly normal interview with a Labour spokesperson i.e Ken or Dianne.
Watch it on the iplayer in the morning. I can't describe the majesty of its awfulness
The approach outlined by Max_PB below (We will be absorbed by a European Superstate!) has inspired me to introduce a third meme. This enables me to do the three-laws things ("Viewcode's Three Memes") plus, with a little tweaking, pull off a Mass Effect 3 "Eternal, Infinite, Immortal" reference, thus:
* Meme#1: The EU is the Eternal Villain. Anything good it does must be characterised as "would have happened anyway". Anything bad that happens must be blamed on it, no matter how implausibly * Meme#2: The EU is the Infinite Villain. The statement "I would have voted Remain if Cameron had negotiated X but he didn't so I'll vote Leave, such a pity" where X is a member of the set of all possible things * Meme#3: The EU is the Immortal Villain. Anything bad that might happen in a future EU must be presented as fact, no matter how improbable it is.
As an aside, having crunched the numbers on both the elections in France this year (the March Departmental ones, and the December Regional ones), I really struggle to see a path to the Presidency for Le Pen.
The only plausible situation where she wins is where she is up against a Left Wing candidate in round two (ideally Hollande), and where Republicans break 2:1 for her against Hollande. (Given Hollande will pick up all the Green transfers, almost all the Left Front, and all the MoDem votes.) And in the Deparment elections in March, where it was Socialist vs FN in the second round, the right wing vote appeared to go 4:1 in favour of the Socialist candidate.
I think we really have to wait and see how the summer plays out before declaring anything in the French election. If anything like November happens again and the culprits are again "refugees" then it will absolute turn the election on its head. FN will get a much fairer hearing than they do at the moment. Every time it kicks off in France it adds 5-7 points to MLP's poll rating. A long summer of another 2m immigrants trying to get into Europe, the possibility of terrorist attacks at the European Championships and the possibility of attacks like those in Cologne taking place in the euphoria of said championships leaves lot up to chance.
FN might be transfer toxic at the moment, as you rightly point out, but it may not remain that way. People said that PVV could never win in the Netherlands, and yet they are heading for victory and a coalition with the D66. That's another one to look at for, a PVV/D66 coalition may begin negotiations to leave the Euro or the EU entirely. The radical right is surging across Europe. If one of these parties does win, it will be interesting to see how the EU reacts to the hostility. Even Law and Justice are still committed to remain in the EU, but the likes of FN and the PVV are not. Both want to bring back the national currency and monetary control and both would like to leave the EU entirely (both countries also rejected the EU Constitution as well so there is some appetite to restrict the EU).
The approach outlined by Max_PB below (We will be absorbed by a European Superstate!) has inspired me to introduce a third meme. This enables me to do the three-laws things ("Viewcode's Three Memes") plus, with a little tweaking, pull off a Mass Effect 3 "Eternal, Infinite, Immortal" reference, thus:
* Meme#1: The EU is the Eternal Villain. Anything good it does must be characterised as "would have happened anyway". Anything bad that happens must be blamed on it, no matter how implausibly * Meme#2: The EU is the Infinite Villain. The statement "I would have voted Remain if Cameron had negotiated X but he didn't so I'll vote Leave, such a pity" where X is a member of the set of all possible things * Meme#3: The EU is the Immortal Villain. Anything bad that might happen in a future EU must be presented as fact, no matter how improbable it is.
@MaxPB: I've looked at the Wikipedia page for D66 and they appear to a pro-EU bunch.
Very much like Ciu in Spain actually, but the problem is that they are the only candidates who are economically liberal. The CDA are said to be refusing to go into coalition with the VVD on principle, though it could be that they want to maximise their vote share and will relent once the election is over.
CiU no longer exists. The two parties fell out over Catalan independence.
Can you just imagine what an election camp aign in 2020 would look like with Corbyn/McDonell/Abbot/Livingstone going out selling the manifesto with virtually no other back-up?
@MaxPB: I've looked at the Wikipedia page for D66 and they appear to a pro-EU bunch.
Very much like Ciu in Spain actually, but the problem is that they are the only candidates who are economically liberal. The CDA are said to be refusing to go into coalition with the VVD on principle, though it could be that they want to maximise their vote share and will relent once the election is over.
CiU no longer exists. The two parties fell out over Catalan independence.
'A number of Glasgow-based veterans of the campaign to keep Scotland in Britain have launched a new party ahead of May’s elections to the Scottish Parliament, The Scotsman reports.
Properly titled ‘A Better Britain – Unionist Party’, the group seems intended to offer a home to Labour-leaning unionists who can’t bring themselves to make the jump to the Scottish Conservatives.
It combines a staunchly unionist constitutional position, including opposition to new powers and restoration of pre-2007 Scottish Executive branding, with a distinctly centrist policy platform including a 50p higher rate of income tax.
Twitter is going wild over why Keith Vaz has deleted his Twitter and Facebook accounts.
There were rumours in the last few hours that he is entering the shadow cabinet, seems logical if those rumours are true.
The disgraced Vaz, who was suspended from the Commons after an enquiry found that he'd made false allegations about a policewoman? The same MP who was dismissed from his post as Europe Minister, after the Hinduja affair? Corbyn's gone through the bottom of the barrel if he gets a Shadow Cabinet post.
His expenses were interesting too.
Wikipedia spells it out very clearly. Some people should not be allowed to play a part in political life in this country.
Given the long list of scandals, it has always been quite amazing to me that he has been elected chair of select committees and spends his days lecturing others on what they have done wrong.
Can you just imagine what an election camp aign in 2020 would look like with Corbyn/McDonell/Abbot/Livingstone going out selling the manifesto with virtually no other back-up?
With the quite outstanding Seamus Milne as spin doctor, what could possibly go wrong....
Can you just imagine what an election camp aign in 2020 would look like with Corbyn/McDonell/Abbot/Livingstone going out selling the manifesto with virtually no other back-up?
Her entire argument is Jeremy received a bigger mandate than Blair, so people should respect whatever Corbyn does, ignoring the fact she and Jez never respected Blair's mandate.
Oh, and no one on Jez's team did any briefings on the reshuffle either.
As an aside, having crunched the numbers on both the elections in France this year (the March Departmental ones, and the December Regional ones), I really struggle to see a path to the Presidency for Le Pen.
The only plausible situation where she wins is where she is up against a Left Wing candidate in round two (ideally Hollande), and where Republicans break 2:1 for her against Hollande. (Given Hollande will pick up all the Green transfers, almost all the Left Front, and all the MoDem votes.) And in the Deparment elections in March, where it was Socialist vs FN in the second round, the right wing vote appeared to go 4:1 in favour of the Socialist candidate.
FN might be transfer toxic at the moment, as you rightly point out, but it may not remain that way. People said that PVV could never win in the Netherlands, and yet they are heading for victory and a coalition with the D66. That's another one to look at for, a PVV/D66 coalition may begin negotiations to leave the Euro or the EU entirely. The radical right is surging across Europe. If one of these parties does win, it will be interesting to see how the EU reacts to the hostility. Even Law and Justice are still committed to remain in the EU, but the likes of FN and the PVV are not. Both want to bring back the national currency and monetary control and both would like to leave the EU entirely (both countries also rejected the EU Constitution as well so there is some appetite to restrict the EU).
@lewis_goodall: Diane Abbott tells @EvanHD that Jeremy Corbyn took so long over his reshuffle because he's "very nice". Wonder if @MichaelDugher would agree
As an aside, having crunched the numbers on both the elections in France this year (the March Departmental ones, and the December Regional ones), I really struggle to see a path to the Presidency for Le Pen.
The only plausible situation where she wins is where she is up against a Left Wing candidate in round two (ideally Hollande), and where Republicans break 2:1 for her against Hollande. (Given Hollande will pick up all the Green transfers, almost all the Left Front, and all the MoDem votes.) And in the Deparment elections in March, where it was Socialist vs FN in the second round, the right wing vote appeared to go 4:1 in favour of the Socialist candidate.
I think we really have to wait and see how the summer plays out before declaring anything in the French election. If anything like November happens again and the culprits are again "refugees" then it will absolute turn the election on its head. FN will get a much fairer hearing than they do at the moment. Every time it kicks off in France it adds 5-7 points to MLP's poll rating. A long summer of another 2m immigrants trying to get into Europe, the possibility of terrorist attacks at the European Championships and the possibility of attacks like those in Cologne taking place in the euphoria of said championships leaves lot up to chance.
Yes; but with Juppe as the Republicans candidate, it's:
Republicans 30%, Le Pen 26%, Hollande 20.5%.
Yes but Juppe will not be the Republicans candidate, Sarkozy will win the nomination comfortably though Juppe could still run in the first round anyway making it even more likely to be a Le Pen v Hollande in the run-off
Can you just imagine what an election camp aign in 2020 would look like with Corbyn/McDonell/Abbot/Livingstone going out selling the manifesto with virtually no other back-up?
Her entire argument is Jeremy received a bigger mandate than Blair, so people should respect whatever Corbyn does, ignoring the fact she and Jez never respected Blair's mandate.
Oh, and no one on Jez's team did any briefings on the reshuffle either.
How stupid do you have to be to go around telling journalists lies that they are able to refute using themselves as the primary source material?
'A number of Glasgow-based veterans of the campaign to keep Scotland in Britain have launched a new party ahead of May’s elections to the Scottish Parliament, The Scotsman reports.
Properly titled ‘A Better Britain – Unionist Party’, the group seems intended to offer a home to Labour-leaning unionists who can’t bring themselves to make the jump to the Scottish Conservatives.
It combines a staunchly unionist constitutional position, including opposition to new powers and restoration of pre-2007 Scottish Executive branding, with a distinctly centrist policy platform including a 50p higher rate of income tax.
The party could offer a home for centre left voters who can't stand the SNP or Corbyn and could never bring themselves to vote Tory, could even pick up a seat or two on the list
@MaxPB: I've looked at the Wikipedia page for D66 and they appear to a pro-EU bunch.
Very much like Ciu in Spain actually, but the problem is that they are the only candidates who are economically liberal. The CDA are said to be refusing to go into coalition with the VVD on principle, though it could be that they want to maximise their vote share and will relent once the election is over.
CiU no longer exists. The two parties fell out over Catalan independence.
I think he means Citizen's
Ah, OK. The fall of the CiU is remarkable. When I lived over there it dominated the Catalan parliament and Esquerra was tiny in comparison. The idea that Jordi Pujol would live out his last days in total disgrace would have been unimaginable.
Jonathan Reynolds MP @jreynoldsMP 10m10 minutes ago For the record @HackneyAbbott, I was a trainee solicitor when elected, having gone to law school as a mature student and single parent (1/2)
Jonathan Reynolds MP @jreynoldsMP 9m9 minutes ago @HackneyAbbott And I think you're a total sell-out for sending your own kids to private school (2/2)
Can you just imagine what an election camp aign in 2020 would look like with Corbyn/McDonell/Abbot/Livingstone going out selling the manifesto with virtually no other back-up?
Her entire argument is Jeremy received a bigger mandate than Blair, so people should respect whatever Corbyn does, ignoring the fact she and Jez never respected Blair's mandate.
Oh, and no one on Jez's team did any briefings on the reshuffle either.
Incredible to think that Blair's election was just 21 1/2 years ago. The whole New Labour story arc and now this clusterfuck, in that short time.
Can you just imagine what an election camp aign in 2020 would look like with Corbyn/McDonell/Abbot/Livingstone going out selling the manifesto with virtually no other back-up?
Her entire argument is Jeremy received a bigger mandate than Blair, so people should respect whatever Corbyn does, ignoring the fact she and Jez never respected Blair's mandate.
Oh, and no one on Jez's team did any briefings on the reshuffle either.
Incredible to think that Blair's election was just 21 1/2 years ago. The whole New Labour story arc and now this clusterfuck, in that short time.
The Tories went from Thatcher's win in 1979 to IDS in 22 years!
Can you just imagine what an election camp aign in 2020 would look like with Corbyn/McDonell/Abbot/Livingstone going out selling the manifesto with virtually no other back-up?
Her entire argument is Jeremy received a bigger mandate than Blair, so people should respect whatever Corbyn does, ignoring the fact she and Jez never respected Blair's mandate.
Oh, and no one on Jez's team did any briefings on the reshuffle either.
How stupid do you have to be to go around telling journalists lies that they are able to refute using themselves as the primary source material?
As long as the useful idiots swallow it that's all that matters. Does anyone seriously believe that one of Dianne Abbot's priorities is the return of a Labour government? Of course it isn't.
Can you just imagine what an election camp aign in 2020 would look like with Corbyn/McDonell/Abbot/Livingstone going out selling the manifesto with virtually no other back-up?
There's no beginning to the quality and depth of the corbynista front men and woman.
The approach outlined by Max_PB below (We will be absorbed by a European Superstate!) has inspired me to introduce a third meme. This enables me to do the three-laws things ("Viewcode's Three Memes") plus, with a little tweaking, pull off a Mass Effect 3 "Eternal, Infinite, Immortal" reference, thus:
* Meme#1: The EU is the Eternal Villain. Anything good it does must be characterised as "would have happened anyway". Anything bad that happens must be blamed on it, no matter how implausibly * Meme#2: The EU is the Infinite Villain. The statement "I would have voted Remain if Cameron had negotiated X but he didn't so I'll vote Leave, such a pity" where X is a member of the set of all possible things * Meme#3: The EU is the Immortal Villain. Anything bad that might happen in a future EU must be presented as fact, no matter how improbable it is.
Can you just imagine what an election camp aign in 2020 would look like with Corbyn/McDonell/Abbot/Livingstone going out selling the manifesto with virtually no other back-up?
Her entire argument is Jeremy received a bigger mandate than Blair, so people should respect whatever Corbyn does, ignoring the fact she and Jez never respected Blair's mandate.
Oh, and no one on Jez's team did any briefings on the reshuffle either.
Incredible to think that Blair's election was just 21 1/2 years ago. The whole New Labour story arc and now this clusterfuck, in that short time.
The Tories went from Thatcher's win in 1979 to IDS in 22 years!
Yes. Worth keeping in mind before making any rash statements, I think.
Only my opinion, but I suspect Military personnel past and present will be disgusted that Hyacinth Bucket is now the shadow defence secretary.
The fun bit will happen if said law firm goes down quite soon - shredding documents that would have bought cases against British troops to a juddering halt is one of the allegations.
Twitter is going wild over why Keith Vaz has deleted his Twitter and Facebook accounts.
There were rumours in the last few hours that he is entering the shadow cabinet, seems logical if those rumours are true.
The disgraced Vaz, who was suspended from the Commons after an enquiry found that he'd made false allegations about a policewoman? The same MP who was dismissed from his post as Europe Minister, after the Hinduja affair? Corbyn's gone through the bottom of the barrel if he gets a Shadow Cabinet post.
I think that barrier was broken by Mandleson - the resignation king.
As long as the useful idiots swallow it that's all that matters. Does anyone seriously believe that one of Dianne Abbot's priorities is the return of a Labour government? Of course it isn't.
You say that, but surely they must think they are furthering that aim? What's the point otherwise?
@lewis_goodall: Diane Abbott tells @EvanHD that Jeremy Corbyn took so long over his reshuffle because he's "very nice". Wonder if @MichaelDugher would agree
Very nice people do not wage vendettas or sack others with differing opinions - they listen.
'A number of Glasgow-based veterans of the campaign to keep Scotland in Britain have launched a new party ahead of May’s elections to the Scottish Parliament, The Scotsman reports.
Properly titled ‘A Better Britain – Unionist Party’, the group seems intended to offer a home to Labour-leaning unionists who can’t bring themselves to make the jump to the Scottish Conservatives.
It combines a staunchly unionist constitutional position, including opposition to new powers and restoration of pre-2007 Scottish Executive branding, with a distinctly centrist policy platform including a 50p higher rate of income tax.
The party could offer a home for centre left voters who can't stand the SNP or Corbyn and could never bring themselves to vote Tory, could even pick up a seat or two on the list
I think there are not many of them in scotland, Corbyn is popular there but it hasn't translated into any votes because SLAB has built a very bad reputation (like SCON, and SLD) over many years.
It's more of a long term question if there can be a centre-right party in scotland that is untainted by any association with the Tories as much as a left wing party that is untainted by the SNP. Kennedy had the same idea of creating a new left wing party to try and limit the SNP, but he died before he had the chance.
It appears that the membership of the Republicans will choose the Presidential candidate. I don't know what form (AV, FPTP, etc.) the election takes. Nor do I know how popular Sarkozy is relative to Juppe among the members.
If you had read through the lines of her This Week performances you could have seen where she was at. The most polite thing to say is that she takes the piss all the time.
As long as the useful idiots swallow it that's all that matters. Does anyone seriously believe that one of Dianne Abbot's priorities is the return of a Labour government? Of course it isn't.
You say that, but surely they must think they are furthering that aim? What's the point otherwise?
Their aim is control of the Labour party. They would happily see Labour defeated in 2020, 2025 and 2030 to achieve that.
As regards this referendum, I believe it is legally non-binding. So if there was a tiny majority for leave it could be that they would throw us a few more concessions and then we be asked to vote again, the correct way this time?
All very droll, especially for lovers of the vernacular. An excellent dialect website was pointed out by someone only the other day. Broad lanky would have done just as well.
Only my opinion, but I suspect Military personnel past and present will be disgusted that Hyacinth Bucket is now the shadow defence secretary.
I rather think that most squaddies past and present have not been enamoured with Labour Party Defence Secretaries, actual or shadow, for a very long time. Not that Cameron and Co are high on their Christmas card list, either.
Every Conservative administration, with the possible exception of Heath, has cut defence almost as its first priority on gaining office. Cameron has not just come up with the usual cuts he has gone further, had two bites at the cherry, made promises and broke them (especially as regards the military covenant), and got his sidekick to fiddle the books so he can claim he is spending more on defence than he actually is.
As regards this referendum, I believe it is legally non-binding. So if there was a tiny majority for leave it could be that they would throw us a few more concessions and then we be asked to vote again, the correct way this time?
Aren't all referenda non-binding? Although I find it unlikely we'll be asked to vote again unless it is an exact tie.
Can you just imagine what an election camp aign in 2020 would look like with Corbyn/McDonell/Abbot/Livingstone going out selling the manifesto with virtually no other back-up?
Her entire argument is Jeremy received a bigger mandate than Blair, so people should respect whatever Corbyn does, ignoring the fact she and Jez never respected Blair's mandate.
Oh, and no one on Jez's team did any briefings on the reshuffle either.
Incredible to think that Blair's election was just 21 1/2 years ago. The whole New Labour story arc and now this clusterfuck, in that short time.
The Tories went from Thatcher's win in 1979 to IDS in 22 years!
Yes. Worth keeping in mind before making any rash statements, I think.
Indeed, the political cycle can play out in dramatic ways
As regards this referendum, I believe it is legally non-binding. So if there was a tiny majority for leave it could be that they would throw us a few more concessions and then we be asked to vote again, the correct way this time?
There's no such thing as a legally binding referendum in the UK.
My view is that it would be political suicide for the referendum result not to be taken at face value.
Their aim is control of the Labour party. They would happily see Labour defeated in 2020, 2025 and 2030 to achieve that.
Controlling a political party by making it unelectable is pointless. If you don't go into politics aiming to win elections you are wasting your time. So even though I agree with you about the likely outcome the Corbynites surely must think "this'll work". If they don't think that they are dafter than I thought.
It appears that the membership of the Republicans will choose the Presidential candidate. I don't know what form (AV, FPTP, etc.) the election takes. Nor do I know how popular Sarkozy is relative to Juppe among the members.
They elected Sarkozy the party chairman with 67% of the vote
Only my opinion, but I suspect Military personnel past and present will be disgusted that Hyacinth Bucket is now the shadow defence secretary.
I rather think that most squaddies past and present have not been enamoured with Labour Party Defence Secretaries, actual or shadow, for a very long time. Not that Cameron and Co are high on their Christmas card list, either.
Every Conservative administration, with the possible exception of Heath, has cut defence almost as its first priority on gaining office. Cameron has not just come up with the usual cuts he has gone further, had two bites at the cherry, made promises and broke them (especially as regards the military covenant), and got his sidekick to fiddle the books so he can claim he is spending more on defence than he actually is.
Not your intention I'm sure, but you sound like an apologist for Ms Bucket’s appointment.
Only my opinion, but I suspect Military personnel past and present will be disgusted that Hyacinth Bucket is now the shadow defence secretary.
I rather think that most squaddies past and present have not been enamoured with Labour Party Defence Secretaries, actual or shadow, for a very long time. Not that Cameron and Co are high on their Christmas card list, either.
Every Conservative administration, with the possible exception of Heath, has cut defence almost as its first priority on gaining office. Cameron has not just come up with the usual cuts he has gone further, had two bites at the cherry, made promises and broke them (especially as regards the military covenant), and got his sidekick to fiddle the books so he can claim he is spending more on defence than he actually is.
Yeah maybe , but Corbyn and his cronies want to get rid of the armed forces.. period.,
'A number of Glasgow-based veterans of the campaign to keep Scotland in Britain have launched a new party ahead of May’s elections to the Scottish Parliament, The Scotsman reports.
Properly titled ‘A Better Britain – Unionist Party’, the group seems intended to offer a home to Labour-leaning unionists who can’t bring themselves to make the jump to the Scottish Conservatives.
It combines a staunchly unionist constitutional position, including opposition to new powers and restoration of pre-2007 Scottish Executive branding, with a distinctly centrist policy platform including a 50p higher rate of income tax.
The party could offer a home for centre left voters who can't stand the SNP or Corbyn and could never bring themselves to vote Tory, could even pick up a seat or two on the list
I think there are not many of them in scotland, Corbyn is popular there but it hasn't translated into any votes because SLAB has built a very bad reputation (like SCON, and SLD) over many years.
It's more of a long term question if there can be a centre-right party in scotland that is untainted by any association with the Tories as much as a left wing party that is untainted by the SNP. Kennedy had the same idea of creating a new left wing party to try and limit the SNP, but he died before he had the chance.
Maybe but under the Holyrood voting system it still has an outside chance of a seat, especially if it wins some Labour or LD votes on the list too
@NCPoliticsUK: 1/2 Getting a few questions re Leicester East. Labour has held it since 1987 - although CON won it once in 1983 on very similar boundaries,
@NCPoliticsUK: 2/2 subsequent demographic shifts have basically put it out of reach of CON and UKIP and the East Mids have always been a weak area for LIB
Parmjit Gill won Leicester South for the LDs a few years ago when Jim Marshall died. Labour re-took it in 2005 as I recall.
As long as the useful idiots swallow it that's all that matters. Does anyone seriously believe that one of Dianne Abbot's priorities is the return of a Labour government? Of course it isn't.
You say that, but surely they must think they are furthering that aim? What's the point otherwise?
Their aim is control of the Labour party. They would happily see Labour defeated in 2020, 2025 and 2030 to achieve that.
That is certainly the perceived wisdom, but why? What is the point of taking over the Labour Party if in the process you make it unelectable? That makes no sense to me.
At the very least are they not banking on achieving power because the pendulum must swing?
It appears that the membership of the Republicans will choose the Presidential candidate. I don't know what form (AV, FPTP, etc.) the election takes. Nor do I know how popular Sarkozy is relative to Juppe among the members.
They elected Sarkozy the party chairman with 67% of the vote
Comments
It doesn't appear to have been tweeted by BBC Nick Sutton. I presume the lawyers are busy.
I know, Labour 60% at least.
It's 60% Asian.
You are pondering what I'm pondering about Vaz.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
Especially among the £3'ers of the Blue variety...
This is the actual front page of tomorrow's Sun
https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/684867420574605313
The front page some people think is tomorrow's front page, is in fact from last year, and from the Sun on Sunday.
@Maomentum_: Diane Abbott quite right: @jeremycorbyn's huge mandate among party members permits him to be as incompetent as he fucking well likes.
My original point still stands in regards to people being careful about what they write.
Even if it's in the Tory heartland of the East Midlands I think Labour is very safe there, perhaps they can take 60% or more.
Couldn't answer what would happen if the Syria vote was next week, would there be a free vote, would Benn make his speech from the backbenches etc
https://t.co/vAiTfVWTMJ
@jreynoldsMP: Is this what she said? At least Google us before slagging us off https://t.co/6v8a9Sso8m
That being said, support for the Euro is incredibly high in the Netherlands. A TNS poll in November has 75-to-21 saying it had been good for the Dutch economy (this is one of the highest levels of support across the EZ). I simply can't see the Netherlands pulling out of the EU or the Euro under those circumstances.
Properly titled ‘A Better Britain – Unionist Party’, the group seems intended to offer a home to Labour-leaning unionists who can’t bring themselves to make the jump to the Scottish Conservatives.
It combines a staunchly unionist constitutional position, including opposition to new powers and restoration of pre-2007 Scottish Executive branding, with a distinctly centrist policy platform including a 50p higher rate of income tax.
The Unionist Party plans to concentrate on a small number of areas and only contest list seats, to assuage concerns that it might split the vote.'
http://www.scotsman.com/news/better-together-party-to-contest-holyrood-2016-election-1-3991779
Twitter is stuffed full of gobshites.
The CDA are an economically centrist party with mild Christian socially-conservative tendencies. Not like the Tories at all. There is nothing in the UK like it. Perhaps the SDLP?
D66 are much more urban and youth-oriented than the Liberal Party was and more economic liberal (which the Liberal Party, of course, was not - though people systemically seem to misremember this)
And the PVV are the reverse mirror image of Ukip on most issues, apart from race and religious matters, on which they are far more extreme than Ukip, I would say close to white nationalism ("get rid of the Moroccans"), but YMMV
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Vaz
* Meme#1: The EU is the Eternal Villain. Anything good it does must be characterised as "would have happened anyway". Anything bad that happens must be blamed on it, no matter how implausibly
* Meme#2: The EU is the Infinite Villain. The statement "I would have voted Remain if Cameron had negotiated X but he didn't so I'll vote Leave, such a pity" where X is a member of the set of all possible things
* Meme#3: The EU is the Immortal Villain. Anything bad that might happen in a future EU must be presented as fact, no matter how improbable it is.
Republicans 30%, Le Pen 26%, Hollande 20.5%.
Oh, and no one on Jez's team did any briefings on the reshuffle either.
Goodnight.
It works very easy when you are the founder and president of the Republicans.
Therefore, absent any information to the contrary, we should assume that it will choose its Presidential candidate in the same way that the UMP did.
https://twitter.com/jreynoldsMP/status/684872565349838848
https://twitter.com/jreynoldsMP/status/684872784133099520
Jonathan Reynolds MP @jreynoldsMP 10m10 minutes ago
For the record @HackneyAbbott, I was a trainee solicitor when elected, having gone to law school as a mature student and single parent (1/2)
Jonathan Reynolds MP @jreynoldsMP 9m9 minutes ago
@HackneyAbbott And I think you're a total sell-out for sending your own kids to private school (2/2)
There's a good article on Ars about the Rift and its price: http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/01/vr-sticker-shock-how-oculus-failed-to-prepare-the-world-for-a-599-rift/
@elliotttimes: And if you have any doubt about this check out @HackneyAbbott timeline right now. Duck and cover. https://t.co/OcyhJYhiWG
It's more of a long term question if there can be a centre-right party in scotland that is untainted by any association with the Tories as much as a left wing party that is untainted by the SNP.
Kennedy had the same idea of creating a new left wing party to try and limit the SNP, but he died before he had the chance.
It appears that the membership of the Republicans will choose the Presidential candidate. I don't know what form (AV, FPTP, etc.) the election takes. Nor do I know how popular Sarkozy is relative to Juppe among the members.
As smooth on the dancefloor as he is in the commons select committee:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/10/01/article-2044221-0E2DC5A700000578-495_1024x615_large.jpg
http://i4.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article6538027.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/Keith-Vaz-dances-with-belly-dancer-at-Labour-Party-Conference-Diversity-night.jpg
Every Conservative administration, with the possible exception of Heath, has cut defence almost as its first priority on gaining office. Cameron has not just come up with the usual cuts he has gone further, had two bites at the cherry, made promises and broke them (especially as regards the military covenant), and got his sidekick to fiddle the books so he can claim he is spending more on defence than he actually is.
My view is that it would be political suicide for the referendum result not to be taken at face value.
Not your intention I'm sure, but you sound like an apologist for Ms Bucket’s appointment.
At the very least are they not banking on achieving power because the pendulum must swing?