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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember that Iowa, the first state to decide, has a histor

We’ve got just seven weeks to wait until the first US voters start making their choices in the 2016 White House race. As has become the custom since 1972 the first state to express a choice is Iowa with its caucuses.
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It seems a peculiar method of choosing anything and I find it very hard to believe that a maverick like Trump will do well in it unless he has bought in a lot of top talent.
Point 2: This is Britain. You don't have an absolute free speech right and never have (it's always been contingent on public order and security concerns). You must be confusing the UK with the US.
FPT quarterly tax returns, Osborne really is a c**t, isn't he?
PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls Dec 11
First night of our Iowa poll- Trump and Cruz at the top with no one else remotely close to them
PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls Dec 11
Trump also polling 20-25% when tested in general election match ups as an independent in Iowa
Joshua Green @JoshuaGreen 17h17 hours ago
Wow, the Bloomberg/Ann Selzer Iowa poll coming tomorrow at 6 is gonna change the #Narrative
Taegan Goddard @politicalwire 18h18 hours ago
Hmmm… Trump’s already trashing Des Moines Register poll out tomorrow night. Must show/think its shows Cruz winning.
Actually the DMR and Bloomberg poll might be the same one, conducted for both of them, so 2 polls might come out.
For Trump to be polling at 20-25% as an independent I guess PPP is very good for Trump (could be 40% in the primary), while the Bloomberg poll I guess is bad for Trump.
It feeds into a longstanding hobbyhorse of mine: people map the US system onto the UK one and assume it makes sense: hence Sunil's observance about free speech. But a right to free speech is a US thing, not a UK thing: here it's a principle that can be overriden in certain circumstances, there it's a right that requires a higher threshold to override
It really annoys me that America is more free than Britain.
So, at least they are even handed at ignoring pointless petitions.
If Donald Trump made a visit to the UK to give a speech or something you know that rent a mob would show up to cause trouble and thus the authorities would be more likely to intervene.
Two men of Syrian origin are in custody in Switzerland suspected of manufacturing toxic gas, the attorney general’s office has said.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/12/switzerland-two-held-toxic-gas-syrian
I read an article about President Elect 1981&87 the PC game and how accurately it predicted the 1984 and 1988 US presidential elections:
http://www.newyorker.com/news/sporting-scene/the-short-impressive-life-of-the-first-presidential-election-video-game
So I downloaded it and modified it with 2016 information to see what happens in a Trump vs Clinton race, it's mostly what you've expect, the list of leaning or too close to call states are:
Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Oregon , Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin
With Iowa to be a republican pick-up.
The state polls roughly agree with this, so not bad for a 30 year old computer simulation.
I noted yesterday the Guardian were still all out Fury bashing over his homophobic and sexist comments, with only a small and far less predominant article on the issue of illegal schools that have been found to be indoctrinating 100s of kids with these values.
The US has in the past banned immigration from the Chinese, Mormons, Communists and people with HIV, to name but some.
An almost unfettered power to control immigration is one of the President's "plenary powers".
Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides:
"Whenever the President finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, he may by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or non-immigrants, or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate."
This part of Trump's plan looked in contradiction to the constitution to me.
The idea that people like 'Sir' (or is it 'Lord') Ian Blair should be the arbiters of free speech is pretty terrifying.
There was a good article I read yesterday (I think someone posted it here?) saying Chris Christie might be worth a punt. He's "moderate" enough in terms of policies to keep the Republican establishment on side, but at the same time has the kind of abrasive "strong-man" personality which might appeal to some Trump voters.
Glasgow (currently 1 seat)
1. Adam Tompkins
2. Annie Wells
3. Sheila Mechan
4. Kyle Thornton
5. John Anderson
6. Graham Hutchison
7. Thomas Kerr
8. Taylor Muir
9. Thomas Haddow
Highlands and Islands (currently 2 seats)
1. Douglas Ross
2. Edward Mountain
3. Donald Cameron
4. Jamie Halcro-Johnston
5. Malcolm Mackay
6. Struan Mackie
7. Cameron Smith
Mid Scotland and Fife (2 seats)
1. Murdo Fraser MSP
2. Liz Smith MSP
3. Dean Lockhart
4. Alexander Stewart
5. Huw Bell
6. James Reekie
7. Dave Dempsey
8. Alex Stewart-Clark
9. Martin Laidlaw
North East (currently 2 seats)
1. Alex Johnstone MSP
2. Alexander Burnett
3. Ross Thomson
4. Peter Chapman
5. Liam Kerr
6. Bill Bowman
7. Nicola Ross
8. Colin Clark
9. Derek Wann
10. Seb Leslie
Central Scotland (currently 1)
1. Margaret Mitchell MSP
2. Graham Simpson
3. Alison Harris
4. Andrew Morrison
5. Callum Laidlaw
6. Meghan Gallacher
7. Robyn Halbert
8. Eric Holford
9. Anthony Newman
Lothian (currently 2)
1. Ruth Davidson MSP
2. Miles Briggs
3. Gordon Lindhurst
4. Iain McGill/Jeremy Balfour (tie)
6. Nick Cook
7. Iain White
8. Sandy Batho
9. Charles Kennedy
South (currently 0 regional + 3 FPTP constituencies)
1. John Scott MSP
2. Oliver Mundell
3. Rachael Hamilton
4. Finlay Carson
5. Brian Whittle
6. Michelle Ballantyne
7. Alex Allison
8. Lee Lyons
West of Scotland (currently 2)
1. Jackson Carlaw MSP
2. Jamie Greene
3. Maurice Golden
4. Maurice Corry
5. Andrew Polson
6. David Wilson
7. Paul Masterson
8. Richard Appleton
9. Graeme Brooks
10. William McClure
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12047208/Its-all-Englands-fault-the-man-who-could-stop-Marine-Le-Pen-blames-Britain.html
Didn't realize we had that much influence in internal French politics
We should have invaded France years (centuries?) ago, they'd have no Front National if we Les Rosbifs had been running France.
I would have made a fine Viceroy of France.
Women didn't do well in the selection. Candidates who got the spots of retiring MSPs are all men and except for Glasgow, the first spots after the ones they already hold are male.
Mr. Eagles, the Morris Dancer Party had just such a manifesto commitment.
I loved this bit: "In President Elect ’88, players could pick from sixty-nine pre-programmed Presidential candidates, including Joseph Biden, Bill Clinton, and Oliver North"
How times have changed, or how little!
Well, ok, it's not quite that errant, but it's still pretty errant.
You have got to be joking! What on earth makes you think that he's in favour of free speech?
I mean Her Majesty is concurrently Queen and The Duke of Normandy.
The President of France is also concurrently Co-Prince of Andorra
BLACKMUN, J., delivered the opinion of the Court
"It is clear that ... an unadmitted and nonresident alien, had no constitutional right of entry to this country as a nonimmigrant or otherwise. The appellees concede this."
Someone said it were if Salvador Dali and Jackson Pollock had gotten into a drunken fight with a photocopier inside a paint factory, whilst doing drugs
I like Cruz's manner - he seems very personable.
Edit: oops, you mentioned the principle of non-rights of aliens. Hm, fair enough. I should probably be worried as an alien living in the US!
http://bit.ly/1NhYykL
If you're lucky, I'll post a picture of it here on Friday night
Cough.
Louisa Johnson looks a shoo in according to Betfair.
Derby N – 785 / 523
Gower – 537 / 417
Croydon Central – 568 / 679
Vale Of Clwyd – 592 / 256
Bury North – 643 / 447
Morley & Outwood – 1033 / 400
Pymouth Sutton & Devonport – 1119 / 977
Thurrock – 1664 / 195
Brighton Kemptown – 821 / 1288
Bolton West – 995 / 389
Telford – 888 / 248
Weaver Vale – 717 / 466
Bedford – 536 / 667
Plymouth Moor View – 1167 / 270
Lincoln – 876 / 586
Cardiff North – 345 / 845
Peterborough - 699 / 465
Corby – 737 / 427
Waveney – 998 / 331
Warrington South – 736 / 690
Southampton Itchen – 1021 / 582
Keighley – 653 / 599
Warwickshire North – 797 / 246
Carlisle – 691 / 359
Halesowen – 769 / 293
Average - 815 / 506
Islington North - 176 / 3271
A near identical match with the YES vote in the AV referendum:
http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=105991&area=gb
http://tinyurl.com/zeruycv
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Company
The f#%*ing end.