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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember that Iowa, the first state to decide, has a history of springing surprises

We’ve got just seven weeks to wait until the first US voters start making their choices in the 2016 White House race. As has become the custom since 1972 the first state to express a choice is Iowa with its caucuses.

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MP_SE

First like Trump.

SandyRentool

Snowy like Iowa in January.

DavidL

8 years ago when I was a lot keener on Hillary than I am now the whole caucus thing struck me as very unfair and undemocratic. Most of that campaign Hillary won primaries, especially open Primaries and consistently lost caucuses. Obama's team seemed brilliant at organising them.

It seems a peculiar method of choosing anything and I find it very hard to believe that a maverick like Trump will do well in it unless he has bought in a lot of top talent.

Sunil_Prasannan

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

Indigo

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

451,880 don't believe in (any) immigration. Strange to tell that petition hasn't been mentioned on the BBC at all.

Pulpstar

I'd have thought Iowa would be Cruz or Trump.

Kevin_McCandless

Of course, this is only the first round of the caucus, which will culminate in early summer with one big caucus at the state level. In 2012, Ron Paul supporters took over the process and ultimately got 22 of the 28 delegates. (As someone on another board put, the only people who understand how caucuses work are the old people who've been going to them for 50 years.)

viewcode

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

Point 1: Nobody is stopping Trump speaking nor communicating the contents of his speech
Point 2: This is Britain. You don't have an absolute free speech right and never have (it's always been contingent on public order and security concerns). You must be confusing the UK with the US.

Sean_F

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

Point 1: Nobody is stopping Trump speaking nor communicating the contents of his speech
Point 2: This is Britain. You don't have an absolute free speech right and never have (it's always been contingent on public order and security concerns). You must be confusing the UK with the US.

I doubt if Trump is a threat to national security and public order.

FPT quarterly tax returns, Osborne really is a c**t, isn't he?

Indigo

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

Point 1: Nobody is stopping Trump speaking nor communicating the contents of his speech
Point 2: This is Britain. You don't have an absolute free speech right and never have (it's always been contingent on public order and security concerns). You must be confusing the UK with the US.

I don't think many people could make that mistake, we have the unholy alliance between students and assorted lefties that think that we should have the right to be not offended, and politicians who think that legislation like the Racial and Religious Hatred Act (2006) is a good idea, combined with the sort of idiotic prudery that gives us the recent changes on what sort of material should be available in R rated videos, as if that matters a damn in the world of almost endless on-line pr0n.

MaxPB

Just did a Populus for the BSE campaign, it looks like they are going to ramp up the project fear aspect, literally everything in there is negative, about how shit this country would be if we left the EU. All the statements they tested were negatively proposed, "if we leave this becomes more expensive". Even some rubbish about beaches, it was all pretty desperate. The only hit they had was the last statement about leaving giving Nigel Farage what he wants, I think that might hit home for a lot of the "soft leavers" in blue. Other than that if this is their campaign, it isn't going to work.

viewcode

Sean_F said:

... Osborne really is a c**t, isn't he?

Best. Post. Evah.

runnymede

And what pray constitutes 'public order concerns'? If some group claims that speech of some sort will lead to them committing acts of violence (aka a threat) is that sufficient to have the said speech banned on 'public order' grounds?

viewcode

runnymede said:

And what pray constitutes 'public order concerns'??

Whatever the cops say they are?

Sunil_Prasannan

MaxPB said:

Just did a Populus for the BSE campaign, it looks like they are going to ramp up the project fear aspect, literally everything in there is negative, about how shit this country would be if we left the EU. All the statements they tested were negatively proposed, "if we leave this becomes more expensive". Even some rubbish about beaches, it was all pretty desperate. The only hit they had was the last statement about leaving giving Nigel Farage what he wants, I think that might hit home for a lot of the "soft leavers" in blue. Other than that if this is their campaign, it isn't going to work.

BSE Campaign? Sounds like Mad Europhile Disease

Sunil_Prasannan

viewcode said:

runnymede said:

And what pray constitutes 'public order concerns'??

Whatever the cops say they are?

You will make an Excellent Drone!

felix

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

Point 1: Nobody is stopping Trump speaking nor communicating the contents of his speech
Point 2: This is Britain. You don't have an absolute free speech right and never have (it's always been contingent on public order and security concerns). You must be confusing the UK with the US.

Oh dear -sense of humour deficit growing among the left.

Speedy

There are 3 new Iowa polls coming later tonight, from PPP, DesMoines Register, and Bloomberg, here are the tea leaves in case I'm not online to post them:

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls Dec 11
First night of our Iowa poll- Trump and Cruz at the top with no one else remotely close to them

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls Dec 11
Trump also polling 20-25% when tested in general election match ups as an independent in Iowa

Joshua Green ‏@JoshuaGreen 17h17 hours ago
Wow, the Bloomberg/Ann Selzer Iowa poll coming tomorrow at 6 is gonna change the #Narrative

Taegan Goddard ‏@politicalwire 18h18 hours ago
Hmmm… Trump’s already trashing Des Moines Register poll out tomorrow night. Must show/think its shows Cruz winning.

Actually the DMR and Bloomberg poll might be the same one, conducted for both of them, so 2 polls might come out.
For Trump to be polling at 20-25% as an independent I guess PPP is very good for Trump (could be 40% in the primary), while the Bloomberg poll I guess is bad for Trump.

MP_SE

MaxPB said:

Just did a Populus for the BSE campaign, it looks like they are going to ramp up the project fear aspect, literally everything in there is negative, about how shit this country would be if we left the EU. All the statements they tested were negatively proposed, "if we leave this becomes more expensive". Even some rubbish about beaches, it was all pretty desperate. The only hit they had was the last statement about leaving giving Nigel Farage what he wants, I think that might hit home for a lot of the "soft leavers" in blue. Other than that if this is their campaign, it isn't going to work.

Typical of those suffering from europhilia. They can only talk the UK down.

viewcode

runnymede said:

And what pray constitutes 'public order concerns'? If some group claims that speech of some sort will lead to them committing acts of violence (aka a threat) is that sufficient to have the said speech banned on 'public order' grounds?

There is a danger here that you may mistake my reportage of the different arrangements in the UK for advocacy of them. the honest answer to your questions are "what the cops say they are" and "yes, and always has been". It doesn't mean I like the situation nor approve of it.

It feeds into a longstanding hobbyhorse of mine: people map the US system onto the UK one and assume it makes sense: hence Sunil's observance about free speech. But a right to free speech is a US thing, not a UK thing: here it's a principle that can be overriden in certain circumstances, there it's a right that requires a higher threshold to override

viewcode

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MaxPB said:

Just did a Populus for the BSE campaign, it looks like they are going to ramp up the project fear aspect, literally everything in there is negative, about how shit this country would be if we left the EU. All the statements they tested were negatively proposed, "if we leave this becomes more expensive". Even some rubbish about beaches, it was all pretty desperate. The only hit they had was the last statement about leaving giving Nigel Farage what he wants, I think that might hit home for a lot of the "soft leavers" in blue. Other than that if this is their campaign, it isn't going to work.

BSE Campaign? Sounds like Mad Europhile Disease

It was intended that way Sunil. The organisation is BSIE, but if you pretend the organisation is called BSE then it sounds like a disease. See also "I'd like to give her one", 70's humour, oo-er missus, etc.

Indigo

viewcode said:

runnymede said:

And what pray constitutes 'public order concerns'??

Whatever the cops say they are?

So the free speech of our country, such as it is, is in the hands of people that left school at 16 to go to Hendon and spent 20 or so years in uniform being careful to not make waves or do anything controversial so that the promotions would keep on rolling in.... fills one with confidence.

Speedy

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

Point 1: Nobody is stopping Trump speaking nor communicating the contents of his speech
Point 2: This is Britain. You don't have an absolute free speech right and never have (it's always been contingent on public order and security concerns). You must be confusing the UK with the US.

True, Britain doesn't and never had free speech, apart perhaps from speakers corner.
It really annoys me that America is more free than Britain.

rcs1000

Indigo said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

451,880 don't believe in (any) immigration. Strange to tell that petition hasn't been mentioned on the BBC at all.

Nor have they mentioned the 447,924 calling for accepting more asylum seekers.

So, at least they are even handed at ignoring pointless petitions.

Indigo

rcs1000 said:

Indigo said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

451,880 don't believe in (any) immigration. Strange to tell that petition hasn't been mentioned on the BBC at all.

Nor have they mentioned the 447,924 calling for accepting more asylum seekers.

So, at least they are even handed at ignoring pointless petitions.

Except apparently the Trump one.

Speedy

rcs1000 said:

Indigo said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

451,880 don't believe in (any) immigration. Strange to tell that petition hasn't been mentioned on the BBC at all.

Nor have they mentioned the 447,924 calling for accepting more asylum seekers.

So, at least they are even handed at ignoring pointless petitions.

Lets say there are always half a million people in this country wasting their time petitioning indifferent politicians.

viewcode

Speedy said:

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

Point 1: Nobody is stopping Trump speaking nor communicating the contents of his speech
Point 2: This is Britain. You don't have an absolute free speech right and never have (it's always been contingent on public order and security concerns). You must be confusing the UK with the US.

True, Britain doesn't and never had free speech, apart perhaps from speakers corner.
It really annoys me that America is more free than Britain.

True, but i quite like the UK. At the risk of sounding silly, it kinda works.

Speedy

viewcode said:

Speedy said:

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

Point 1: Nobody is stopping Trump speaking nor communicating the contents of his speech
Point 2: This is Britain. You don't have an absolute free speech right and never have (it's always been contingent on public order and security concerns). You must be confusing the UK with the US.

True, Britain doesn't and never had free speech, apart perhaps from speakers corner.
It really annoys me that America is more free than Britain.

True, but i quite like the UK. At the risk of sounding silly, it kinda works.

Actually I hope Corbyn would promise a law enshrining the right to free speech.

tlg86

On free speech, what concerns me is that it's determined by who might be offended. Some of the Muslim clerics we've had here have gotten away with preaching all sorts of offensive nonsense. But I've always felt that because the people who object to it aren't likely to kick off then the authorities are less likely to be bothered.

If Donald Trump made a visit to the UK to give a speech or something you know that rent a mob would show up to cause trouble and thus the authorities would be more likely to intervene.

Plato_Says

We were in a much healthier place before New Labour's PC police

viewcode said:

Speedy said:

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

Point 1: Nobody is stopping Trump speaking nor communicating the contents of his speech
Point 2: This is Britain. You don't have an absolute free speech right and never have (it's always been contingent on public order and security concerns). You must be confusing the UK with the US.

True, Britain doesn't and never had free speech, apart perhaps from speakers corner.
It really annoys me that America is more free than Britain.

True, but i quite like the UK. At the risk of sounding silly, it kinda works.

Plato_Says

Quite.

tlg86 said:

On free speech, what concerns me is that it's determined by who might be offended. Some of the Muslim clerics we've had here have gotten away with preaching all sorts of offensive nonsense. But I've always felt that because the people who object to it aren't likely to kick off then the authorities are less likely to be bothered.

If Donald Trump made a visit to the UK to give a speech or something you know that rent a mob would show up to cause trouble and thus the authorities would be more likely to intervene.

FrancisUrquhart

Pair held over suspected toxic gas plot in Switzerland

Two men of Syrian origin are in custody in Switzerland suspected of manufacturing toxic gas, the attorney general’s office has said.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/12/switzerland-two-held-toxic-gas-syrian

Pulpstar

Plato_Says said:

Quite.

tlg86 said:

On free speech, what concerns me is that it's determined by who might be offended. Some of the Muslim clerics we've had here have gotten away with preaching all sorts of offensive nonsense. But I've always felt that because the people who object to it aren't likely to kick off then the authorities are less likely to be bothered.

If Donald Trump made a visit to the UK to give a speech or something you know that rent a mob would show up to cause trouble and thus the authorities would be more likely to intervene.

Lock Trump in a room with Anjem Choudhary.

Plato_Says

Very Homeland. Angela must hate the current series.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pair held over suspected toxic gas plot in Switzerland

Two men of Syrian origin are in custody in Switzerland suspected of manufacturing toxic gas, the attorney general’s office has said.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/12/switzerland-two-held-toxic-gas-syrian

Pulpstar

rcs1000 said:

Indigo said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

451,880 don't believe in (any) immigration. Strange to tell that petition hasn't been mentioned on the BBC at all.

Nor have they mentioned the 447,924 calling for accepting more asylum seekers.

So, at least they are even handed at ignoring pointless petitions.

Has Andy Burnham signed them both ?

Indigo

Pulpstar said:

Plato_Says said:

Quite.

tlg86 said:

On free speech, what concerns me is that it's determined by who might be offended. Some of the Muslim clerics we've had here have gotten away with preaching all sorts of offensive nonsense. But I've always felt that because the people who object to it aren't likely to kick off then the authorities are less likely to be bothered.

If Donald Trump made a visit to the UK to give a speech or something you know that rent a mob would show up to cause trouble and thus the authorities would be more likely to intervene.

Lock Trump in a room with Anjem Choudhary.

No need, just show a few of his tweets to Polis Scotland...

FrancisUrquhart

There has been a ludicrous amount of space and time given to the Tyson Fury and Donald Trump "petitions".

I noted yesterday the Guardian were still all out Fury bashing over his homophobic and sexist comments, with only a small and far less predominant article on the issue of illegal schools that have been found to be indoctrinating 100s of kids with these values.

Speedy

On what could be my last post for tonight (i'm planning to go out).
I read an article about President Elect 1981&87 the PC game and how accurately it predicted the 1984 and 1988 US presidential elections:

http://www.newyorker.com/news/sporting-scene/the-short-impressive-life-of-the-first-presidential-election-video-game

So I downloaded it and modified it with 2016 information to see what happens in a Trump vs Clinton race, it's mostly what you've expect, the list of leaning or too close to call states are:
Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Oregon , Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin
With Iowa to be a republican pick-up.

The state polls roughly agree with this, so not bad for a 30 year old computer simulation.

Wanderer

viewcode said:

Speedy said:

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

Point 1: Nobody is stopping Trump speaking nor communicating the contents of his speech
Point 2: This is Britain. You don't have an absolute free speech right and never have (it's always been contingent on public order and security concerns). You must be confusing the UK with the US.

True, Britain doesn't and never had free speech, apart perhaps from speakers corner.
It really annoys me that America is more free than Britain.

True, but i quite like the UK. At the risk of sounding silly, it kinda works.

I'm increasingly coming round to that outlandish point of view.

FrancisUrquhart

Indigo said:

Pulpstar said:

Plato_Says said:

Quite.

tlg86 said:

On free speech, what concerns me is that it's determined by who might be offended. Some of the Muslim clerics we've had here have gotten away with preaching all sorts of offensive nonsense. But I've always felt that because the people who object to it aren't likely to kick off then the authorities are less likely to be bothered.

If Donald Trump made a visit to the UK to give a speech or something you know that rent a mob would show up to cause trouble and thus the authorities would be more likely to intervene.

Lock Trump in a room with Anjem Choudhary.

No need, just show a few of his tweets to Polis Scotland...

I can't believe Choudary has been given bail AGAIN, after having been rearrested for breaking his bail conditions....FFS....Did Jahadi Jez write a letter to the judge or something, saying how he is really just a nice misunderstood boy?

Speedy

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pair held over suspected toxic gas plot in Switzerland

Two men of Syrian origin are in custody in Switzerland suspected of manufacturing toxic gas, the attorney general’s office has said.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/12/switzerland-two-held-toxic-gas-syrian

Sound like the plot from The Cassandra Crossing.

RodCrosby

FPT, and people bleating about the "unconstitutionality" of Trump's remarks.

The US has in the past banned immigration from the Chinese, Mormons, Communists and people with HIV, to name but some.

An almost unfettered power to control immigration is one of the President's "plenary powers".

Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides:

"Whenever the President finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, he may by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or non-immigrants, or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate."

richardDodd

Rod Crosby..Thank you..

Pulpstar

RodCrosby said:

FPT, and people bleating about the "unconstitutionality" of Trump's remarks.

The US has in the past banned immigration from the Chinese, Mormons, Communists and people with HIV, to name but some.

An almost unfettered power to control immigration is one of the President's "plenary powers".

Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides:

"Whenever the President finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, he may by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or non-immigrants, or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate."

What about existing US muslim citizens coming back into the country though ?

This part of Trump's plan looked in contradiction to the constitution to me.

RodCrosby

Pulpstar said:

RodCrosby said:

FPT, and people bleating about the "unconstitutionality" of Trump's remarks.

The US has in the past banned immigration from the Chinese, Mormons, Communists and people with HIV, to name but some.

An almost unfettered power to control immigration is one of the President's "plenary powers".

Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides:

"Whenever the President finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, he may by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or non-immigrants, or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate."

What about existing US muslim citizens coming back into the country though ?

This part of Trump's plan looked in contradiction to the constitution to me.

Yes, he would undoubtedly have a problem there...

tlg86

FrancisUrquhart said:

There has been a ludicrous amount of space and time given to the Tyson Fury and Donald Trump "petitions".

I noted yesterday the Guardian were still all out Fury bashing over his homophobic and sexist comments, with only a small and far less predominant article on the issue of illegal schools that have been found to be indoctrinating 100s of kids with these values.

I wonder if the Tyson Fury case would have been quite so prominent if he were a Muslim? Admittedly, I think Muslims tend to keep the counsel on these matters (gay marriage etc.).

FrancisUrquhart

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

There has been a ludicrous amount of space and time given to the Tyson Fury and Donald Trump "petitions".

I noted yesterday the Guardian were still all out Fury bashing over his homophobic and sexist comments, with only a small and far less predominant article on the issue of illegal schools that have been found to be indoctrinating 100s of kids with these values.

I wonder if the Tyson Fury case would have been quite so prominent if he were a Muslim? Admittedly, I think Muslims tend to keep the counsel on these matters (gay marriage etc.).

Well Amir Khan certainly gets a free pass and still the golden boy, despite shall we say rather mixed behaviour outside of the ring.

Pulpstar

tlg86 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

There has been a ludicrous amount of space and time given to the Tyson Fury and Donald Trump "petitions".

I noted yesterday the Guardian were still all out Fury bashing over his homophobic and sexist comments, with only a small and far less predominant article on the issue of illegal schools that have been found to be indoctrinating 100s of kids with these values.

I wonder if the Tyson Fury case would have been quite so prominent if he were a Muslim? Admittedly, I think Muslims tend to keep the counsel on these matters (gay marriage etc.).

Amir Khan keeps getting knocked out too much for us to find out :P

runnymede

We were in a much healthier place before New Labour's PC police

The idea that people like 'Sir' (or is it 'Lord') Ian Blair should be the arbiters of free speech is pretty terrifying.

Danny565

I thought Rubio was the strong favourite a few months ago, but I'm starting to have doubts now. The thing is that, until recently, it was quite easy to explain his mediocre poll numbers by just saying the spotlight hadn't come onto him yet and so people weren't really considering him. But he actually has had a fair bit of attention recently, yet he's still treading water, which suggests there's some fundamental problems with him as a candidate for the selectorate.

There was a good article I read yesterday (I think someone posted it here?) saying Chris Christie might be worth a punt. He's "moderate" enough in terms of policies to keep the Republican establishment on side, but at the same time has the kind of abrasive "strong-man" personality which might appeal to some Trump voters.

RobD

RodCrosby said:

FPT, and people bleating about the "unconstitutionality" of Trump's remarks.

The US has in the past banned immigration from the Chinese, Mormons, Communists and people with HIV, to name but some.

An almost unfettered power to control immigration is one of the President's "plenary powers".

Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides:

"Whenever the President finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, he may by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or non-immigrants, or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate."

Just because it is a law doesn't mean it is constitutional Unless it has been successfully defended in the Supreme Court, of course!

AndreaParma_82

Scottish Conservative regional lists

Glasgow (currently 1 seat)

1. Adam Tompkins
2. Annie Wells
3. Sheila Mechan
4. Kyle Thornton
5. John Anderson
6. Graham Hutchison
7. Thomas Kerr
8. Taylor Muir
9. Thomas Haddow

Highlands and Islands (currently 2 seats)

1. Douglas Ross
2. Edward Mountain
3. Donald Cameron
4. Jamie Halcro-Johnston
5. Malcolm Mackay
6. Struan Mackie
7. Cameron Smith

Mid Scotland and Fife (2 seats)

1. Murdo Fraser MSP
2. Liz Smith MSP
3. Dean Lockhart
4. Alexander Stewart
5. Huw Bell
6. James Reekie
7. Dave Dempsey
8. Alex Stewart-Clark
9. Martin Laidlaw

North East (currently 2 seats)


1. Alex Johnstone MSP
2. Alexander Burnett
3. Ross Thomson
4. Peter Chapman
5. Liam Kerr
6. Bill Bowman
7. Nicola Ross
8. Colin Clark
9. Derek Wann
10. Seb Leslie

Central Scotland (currently 1)


1. Margaret Mitchell MSP
2. Graham Simpson
3. Alison Harris
4. Andrew Morrison
5. Callum Laidlaw
6. Meghan Gallacher
7. Robyn Halbert
8. Eric Holford
9. Anthony Newman

Lothian (currently 2)

1. Ruth Davidson MSP
2. Miles Briggs
3. Gordon Lindhurst
4. Iain McGill/Jeremy Balfour (tie)
6. Nick Cook
7. Iain White
8. Sandy Batho
9. Charles Kennedy

South (currently 0 regional + 3 FPTP constituencies)

1. John Scott MSP
2. Oliver Mundell
3. Rachael Hamilton
4. Finlay Carson
5. Brian Whittle
6. Michelle Ballantyne
7. Alex Allison
8. Lee Lyons

West of Scotland (currently 2)

1. Jackson Carlaw MSP
2. Jamie Greene
3. Maurice Golden
4. Maurice Corry
5. Andrew Polson
6. David Wilson
7. Paul Masterson
8. Richard Appleton
9. Graeme Brooks
10. William McClure

RobD

According to this guy the rise of the Front National is all our fault

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12047208/Its-all-Englands-fault-the-man-who-could-stop-Marine-Le-Pen-blames-Britain.html

Didn't realize we had that much influence in internal French politics

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

According to this guy the rise of the Front National is all our fault

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12047208/Its-all-Englands-fault-the-man-who-could-stop-Marine-Le-Pen-blames-Britain.html

Didn't realize we had that much influence in internal French politics

It is our fault.

We should have invaded France years (centuries?) ago, they'd have no Front National if we Les Rosbifs had been running France.

I would have made a fine Viceroy of France.

AndreaParma_82

Half of the Scottish Conservative Holyrood group was retiring. The other half topped the lists. John Lamont will live or die in Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire without the regional list's rescue.
Women didn't do well in the selection. Candidates who got the spots of retiring MSPs are all men and except for Glasgow, the first spots after the ones they already hold are male.

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the Morris Dancer Party had just such a manifesto commitment.

DiversityIsOurGodNow

RobD said:

According to this guy the rise of the Front National is all our fault

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12047208/Its-all-Englands-fault-the-man-who-could-stop-Marine-Le-Pen-blames-Britain.html

Didn't realize we had that much influence in internal French politics

To the self-loathing media bedwetters, everything's Britain's fault. The whole lot of them ought to be swinging from the lampposts for the damage they've done to this country.

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, I'll never forget the Dean scream.

MikeSmithson

I've updated header with news of Trump's attack on Des Moines Register poll due out tomorrow. Looks bad for him.

TheScreamingEagles

England v Wales in next years Euros

MyBurningEars

Speedy said:

On what could be my last post for tonight (i'm planning to go out).
I read an article about President Elect 1981&87 the PC game and how accurately it predicted the 1984 and 1988 US presidential elections:

http://www.newyorker.com/news/sporting-scene/the-short-impressive-life-of-the-first-presidential-election-video-game

So I downloaded it and modified it with 2016 information to see what happens in a Trump vs Clinton race, it's mostly what you've expect, the list of leaning or too close to call states are:
Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Oregon , Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin
With Iowa to be a republican pick-up.

The state polls roughly agree with this, so not bad for a 30 year old computer simulation.

Great article.

I loved this bit: "In President Elect ’88, players could pick from sixty-nine pre-programmed Presidential candidates, including Joseph Biden, Bill Clinton, and Oliver North"

How times have changed, or how little!

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Good evening, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the Morris Dancer Party had just such a manifesto commitment.

To make me Viceroy of France? I'm honoured

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

England v Wales in next years Euros

Provisionally scheduled for 2pm on Thursday 16 June, but the schedule can be changed to accommodate broadcasting wishes - hopefully such a change will happen!

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

England v Wales in next years Euros

Provisionally scheduled for 2pm on Thursday 16 June, but the schedule can be changed to accommodate broadcasting wishes - hopefully such a change will happen!

Please don't let it be like this year's England v Wales Rugby World Cup match.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, your understanding of the Morris Dancer Party manifesto is as errant as your understanding of classical history.

Well, ok, it's not quite that errant, but it's still pretty errant.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I'll never forget the Dean scream.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r82fyOb8F5w

RobD

Morris_Dancer said:

Good evening, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the Morris Dancer Party had just such a manifesto commitment.

Can one be Viceroy of the French and Directly Elected Dictator of Britain at the same time?

malcolmg

AndreaParma_82 said:

Scottish Conservative regional lists

Glasgow (currently 1 seat)

1. Adam Tompkins
2. Annie Wells
3. Sheila Mechan
4. Kyle Thornton
5. John Anderson
6. Graham Hutchison
7. Thomas Kerr
8. Taylor Muir
9. Thomas Haddow

Highlands and Islands (currently 2 seats)

1. Douglas Ross
2. Edward Mountain
3. Donald Cameron
4. Jamie Halcro-Johnston
5. Malcolm Mackay
6. Struan Mackie
7. Cameron Smith

Mid Scotland and Fife (2 seats)

1. Murdo Fraser MSP
2. Liz Smith MSP
3. Dean Lockhart
4. Alexander Stewart
5. Huw Bell
6. James Reekie
7. Dave Dempsey
8. Alex Stewart-Clark
9. Martin Laidlaw

North East (currently 2 seats)


1. Alex Johnstone MSP
2. Alexander Burnett
3. Ross Thomson
4. Peter Chapman
5. Liam Kerr
6. Bill Bowman
7. Nicola Ross
8. Colin Clark
9. Derek Wann
10. Seb Leslie

Central Scotland (currently 1)


1. Margaret Mitchell MSP
2. Graham Simpson
3. Alison Harris
4. Andrew Morrison
5. Callum Laidlaw
6. Meghan Gallacher
7. Robyn Halbert
8. Eric Holford
9. Anthony Newman

Lothian (currently 2)

1. Ruth Davidson MSP
2. Miles Briggs
3. Gordon Lindhurst
4. Iain McGill/Jeremy Balfour (tie)
6. Nick Cook
7. Iain White
8. Sandy Batho
9. Charles Kennedy

South (currently 0 regional + 3 FPTP constituencies)

1. John Scott MSP
2. Oliver Mundell
3. Rachael Hamilton
4. Finlay Carson
5. Brian Whittle
6. Michelle Ballantyne
7. Alex Allison
8. Lee Lyons

West of Scotland (currently 2)

1. Jackson Carlaw MSP
2. Jamie Greene
3. Maurice Golden
4. Maurice Corry
5. Andrew Polson
6. David Wilson
7. Paul Masterson
8. Richard Appleton
9. Graeme Brooks
10. William McClure

What a list of 3rd raters, any party that has Tompkins at the top of a list is really scraping the barrel.

TheScreamingEagles

So if any of the Putin fanboys here cheer for Russia against England, I'll sign a petition to deport them to Russia.

Sean_F

Speedy said:

viewcode said:

Speedy said:

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

Point 1: Nobody is stopping Trump speaking nor communicating the contents of his speech
Point 2: This is Britain. You don't have an absolute free speech right and never have (it's always been contingent on public order and security concerns). You must be confusing the UK with the US.

True, Britain doesn't and never had free speech, apart perhaps from speakers corner.
It really annoys me that America is more free than Britain.

True, but i quite like the UK. At the risk of sounding silly, it kinda works.

Actually I hope Corbyn would promise a law enshrining the right to free speech.

Corbyn? Free Speech? You're avin a laugh mate.

Pulpstar

MikeSmithson said:

I've updated header with news of Trump's attack on Des Moines Register poll due out tomorrow. Looks bad for him.

Cheers, have sold him a touch.

AndyJS

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

That's Corbyn's base, I presume.

Cyclefree

Speedy said:

viewcode said:

Speedy said:

viewcode said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

Point 1: Nobody is stopping Trump speaking nor communicating the contents of his speech
Point 2: This is Britain. You don't have an absolute free speech right and never have (it's always been contingent on public order and security concerns). You must be confusing the UK with the US.

True, Britain doesn't and never had free speech, apart perhaps from speakers corner.
It really annoys me that America is more free than Britain.

True, but i quite like the UK. At the risk of sounding silly, it kinda works.

Actually I hope Corbyn would promise a law enshrining the right to free speech.

You have got to be joking! What on earth makes you think that he's in favour of free speech?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. D, Mr. Eagles' strange fantasies are as perplexing as his dress sense.

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good evening, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the Morris Dancer Party had just such a manifesto commitment.

Can one be Viceroy of the French and Directly Elected Dictator of Britain at the same time?

I would make the former ex-officio of the latter.

I mean Her Majesty is concurrently Queen and The Duke of Normandy.

The President of France is also concurrently Co-Prince of Andorra

Plato_Says

For anyone who missed it - Storyville FBI Undercover looks at potential Muslim extremists from the perspective of an informant http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b06r0wtg/storyville-20152016-10-fbi-undercover

RodCrosby

RobD said:

RodCrosby said:

FPT, and people bleating about the "unconstitutionality" of Trump's remarks.

The US has in the past banned immigration from the Chinese, Mormons, Communists and people with HIV, to name but some.

An almost unfettered power to control immigration is one of the President's "plenary powers".

Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides:

"Whenever the President finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, he may by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or non-immigrants, or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate."

Just because it is a law doesn't mean it is constitutional Unless it has been successfully defended in the Supreme Court, of course!

Another part of the Act was upheld by the USSC, as well as the general principle of non-rights of aliens, in Kleindienst v Mandel 408 U.S. 753 (1972)

BLACKMUN, J., delivered the opinion of the Court
"It is clear that ... an unadmitted and nonresident alien, had no constitutional right of entry to this country as a nonimmigrant or otherwise. The appellees concede this."

Alistair

If Trump collapses does Cruz get his supporters?

surbiton

This is my scream - Trump

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, Mr. Eagles' strange fantasies are as perplexing as his dress sense.

You should see the shirt I've ordered for the Christmas do next Friday.

Someone said it were if Salvador Dali and Jackson Pollock had gotten into a drunken fight with a photocopier inside a paint factory, whilst doing drugs

Danny565

Alistair said:

If Trump collapses does Cruz get his supporters?

I think Cruz is more likely to collapse than Trump.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, Mr. Eagles' strange fantasies are as perplexing as his dress sense.

You should see the shirt I've ordered for the Christmas do next Friday.

Someone said it were if Salvador Dal and Jackson Pollock had gotten into a drunk fight with a photocopier inside a paint factory, whilst doing drugs

So it isn't from The White Company then? ;-)

MonikerDiCanio

Trump is habitually contemptuous of the press. His comments on the Des Moines Register and its political hack are nothing out of the ordinary for him.

Pulpstar

Danny565 said:

Alistair said:

If Trump collapses does Cruz get his supporters?

I think Cruz is more likely to collapse than Trump.

Hmm Trump is ahead but he's also more likely to collapse I reckon. I think Cruz takes Iowa.
I like Cruz's manner - he seems very personable.

RobD

RodCrosby said:

RobD said:

RodCrosby said:

FPT, and people bleating about the "unconstitutionality" of Trump's remarks.

The US has in the past banned immigration from the Chinese, Mormons, Communists and people with HIV, to name but some.

An almost unfettered power to control immigration is one of the President's "plenary powers".

Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides:

"Whenever the President finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, he may by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or non-immigrants, or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate."

Just because it is a law doesn't mean it is constitutional Unless it has been successfully defended in the Supreme Court, of course!

Another part of the Act was upheld by the USSC, as well as the general principle of non-rights of aliens, in Kleindienst v Mandel 408 U.S. 753 (1972)

BLACKMUN, J., delivered the opinion of the Court
"It is clear that ... an unadmitted and nonresident alien, had no constitutional right of entry to this country as a nonimmigrant or otherwise. The appellees concede this."

Yeah, but that has no bearing on the part of the act in question
Edit: oops, you mentioned the principle of non-rights of aliens. Hm, fair enough. I should probably be worried as an alien living in the US!

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, Mr. Eagles' strange fantasies are as perplexing as his dress sense.

You should see the shirt I've ordered for the Christmas do next Friday.

Someone said it were if Salvador Dali and Jackson Pollock had gotten into a drunk fight with a photocopier inside a paint factory, whilst doing drugs

So it isn't from The White Company then? ;-)

Nope, here it is.

http://bit.ly/1NhYykL

If you're lucky, I'll post a picture of it here on Friday night

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good evening, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, the Morris Dancer Party had just such a manifesto commitment.

Can one be Viceroy of the French and Directly Elected Dictator of Britain at the same time?

I would make the former ex-officio of the latter.

I mean Her Majesty is concurrently Queen and The Duke of Normandy.

The President of France is also concurrently Co-Prince of Andorra

Quite right. Time for HM to put the fleur de lis back on the coat of arms?

Danny565

So, who's watching the X Factor Final tonight?

Cough.

Pulpstar

Danny565 said:

So, who's watching the X Factor Final tonight?

Cough.

I'm watching the boxing before I head round to a friends.

Louisa Johnson looks a shoo in according to Betfair.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, Mr. Eagles' strange fantasies are as perplexing as his dress sense.

You should see the shirt I've ordered for the Christmas do next Friday.

Someone said it were if Salvador Dali and Jackson Pollock had gotten into a drunk fight with a photocopier inside a paint factory, whilst doing drugs

So it isn't from The White Company then? ;-)

Nope, here it is.

http://bit.ly/1NhYykL

If you're lucky, I'll post a picture of it here on Friday night

Jesus H Christ...my eyes...my eyes....and that was before I saw the price ;-)

TheScreamingEagles

Danny565 said:

So, who's watching the X Factor Final tonight?

Cough.

Strictly for me

another_richard

rcs1000 said:

Indigo said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

546,931 people don't believe in Free Speech

451,880 don't believe in (any) immigration. Strange to tell that petition hasn't been mentioned on the BBC at all.

Nor have they mentioned the 447,924 calling for accepting more asylum seekers.

So, at least they are even handed at ignoring pointless petitions.

Thanks for that Bob - it makes an even better comparison with the 'stop all immigration' petition:

Derby N – 785 / 523
Gower – 537 / 417
Croydon Central – 568 / 679
Vale Of Clwyd – 592 / 256
Bury North – 643 / 447
Morley & Outwood – 1033 / 400
Pymouth Sutton & Devonport – 1119 / 977
Thurrock – 1664 / 195
Brighton Kemptown – 821 / 1288
Bolton West – 995 / 389
Telford – 888 / 248
Weaver Vale – 717 / 466
Bedford – 536 / 667
Plymouth Moor View – 1167 / 270
Lincoln – 876 / 586
Cardiff North – 345 / 845
Peterborough - 699 / 465
Corby – 737 / 427
Waveney – 998 / 331
Warrington South – 736 / 690
Southampton Itchen – 1021 / 582
Keighley – 653 / 599
Warwickshire North – 797 / 246
Carlisle – 691 / 359
Halesowen – 769 / 293

Average - 815 / 506

Islington North - 176 / 3271

A near identical match with the YES vote in the AV referendum:

http://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=105991&area=gb

http://tinyurl.com/zeruycv

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Urquhart, the White Company? The medieval mercenary company?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Company

Plato_Says

I've got it set to record - no spoilers!!

Danny565 said:

So, who's watching the X Factor Final tonight?

Cough.

FrancisUrquhart

MonikerDiCanio said:

Trump is habitually contemptuous of the press. His comments on the Des Moines Register and its political hack are nothing out of the ordinary for him.

I was going to say. Is OGH reading too much into this. Is there a news outlet he hasn't go ape shit on yet? Fox News perhaps? And this paper, he had a dust up with them a few months ago and they wrote an editorial telling him to shut up shop on his campaign. So it isn't like he is coming to town without an axe to grind already.

Danny565

Plato_Says said:

I've got it set to record - no spoilers!!

Danny565 said:

So, who's watching the X Factor Final tonight?

Cough.

Are you also hoping for a Reggie & Bolli win?

RodCrosby

RobD said:

RodCrosby said:

RobD said:

RodCrosby said:

FPT, and people bleating about the "unconstitutionality" of Trump's remarks.

The US has in the past banned immigration from the Chinese, Mormons, Communists and people with HIV, to name but some.

An almost unfettered power to control immigration is one of the President's "plenary powers".

Section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act provides:

"Whenever the President finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, he may by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or non-immigrants, or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate."

Just because it is a law doesn't mean it is constitutional Unless it has been successfully defended in the Supreme Court, of course!

Another part of the Act was upheld by the USSC, as well as the general principle of non-rights of aliens, in Kleindienst v Mandel 408 U.S. 753 (1972)

BLACKMUN, J., delivered the opinion of the Court
"It is clear that ... an unadmitted and nonresident alien, had no constitutional right of entry to this country as a nonimmigrant or otherwise. The appellees concede this."

Yeah, but that has no bearing on the part of the act in question
Edit: oops, you mentioned the principle of non-rights of aliens. Hm, fair enough. I should probably be worried as an alien living in the US!

Thank-you. The US Constitution does not bestow its rights on the whole of humanity...

TheScreamingEagles

Danny565 said:

Plato_Says said:

I've got it set to record - no spoilers!!

Danny565 said:

So, who's watching the X Factor Final tonight?

Cough.

Are you also hoping for a Reggie & Bolli win?

Tonight is my favourite bit of The X Factor.

The f#%*ing end.

Danny565

TheScreamingEagles said:

Danny565 said:

Plato_Says said:

I've got it set to record - no spoilers!!

Danny565 said:

So, who's watching the X Factor Final tonight?

Cough.

Are you also hoping for a Reggie & Bolli win?

Tonight is my favourite bit of The X Factor.

The f#%*ing end.

'Fraid that's tomorrow

Sean_F

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Urquhart, the White Company? The medieval mercenary company?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Company

Also an excellent story by Conan Doyle.