Perhaps we could agree that Labour increased its vote share on a much reduced turnout then? The part we don't know is the reasons for the reduced turnout....
1) don't like Labour anymore 2) dont like " terrorist sympathisers" 3) couldn't find me wellies and brolly.
As for the White Christmas thingy it was part of a compilation of Crimbo carols I understand and therefore in no way racial. Had this been the only one played then I would then agree the line could have been construed as technically crossed. They didn't so it wasn't.
How many by-elections are you aware of where the turnout was higher than the preceding general election ?
No idea, couldn't be arsed to look either but I guess more hens teeth are likely to be found. The point remains that this seems a compromise position for all and what actually happened on the day.
It looks like the days of the UK having a surplus on income from foreign investments might be over for good:
' The UK’s international investment position abroad (outward FDI position) decreased from £1,024.6 billion to £1,015.4 billion between 2013 and 2014, the lowest level recorded since 2009 (£981.5 billion). The 2014 estimate also marked the third consecutive annual decline since 2011 (£1,090.9 billion).
The international investment position in the UK by overseas residents and businesses (inward FDI positions) at the end of 2014 reached £1,034.3 billion, up from £910.3 billion in 2013. The level of inward investment in 2014 was the highest on record, having continued to follow an upward trend in recent decades. '
If the UK runs a permanent trade deficit and a permanent tourism deficit and has a deficit on government transactions (overseas aid, EU contributions etc) and has a deficit on investments then something will have to change and likely have to change soon. That something will involve a big reduction in living standards.
Agreed. Of all the media, only William Keegan in the Observer seems to be pointing out how truly poor UK position is. At some point there will be a reckoning. Presumably with an attack on the pound. Where will interest rates go then?
As I've said before on here, I personally can't see Osborne getting to 2020 election without some kind of recession or even deeper economic crisis. But who knows. Forecasting is a mug's game.
A Tory cllr of my acquaintance who claims to know about financial matters had long stated 2018 is going to be when this all comes crashing down on whoever was in power by then. I'm sure that's a guess like any other, but it feels right.
I'd say 2017 personally, but certainly before next GE. The Eurozone is not looking too good for starters. Draghi had to announce more anti-deflation measures yesterday. China not good. US though might keep us all afloat.
Banks such as Goldman Sachs predict they [oil prices] could fall further to as low as $20 per barrel as the world produces more oil than it consumes and runs out of capacity to store the excess.
There was some comment about the North Sea fields going out of production.
OPEC will not give up until Shale oil production is stopped.
In the meantime, watch the inexorable rise and rise of renewables. China and India have joined the game with the zeal of converts ! From Jan 1, New Delhi will only permit cars with odd and even number plates on alternate days.
The big deal will be when https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_1 comes on line. If it can deliver the drop in the price of Lithium batteries projected, then a cheap electric car - 300 mile range for $25k new - will be possible.
The question then is at what point the electric cars eating into the car market mean that net demand for petrol world wide *drops* on a sustained basis for the foresable future. That is, the increase in electric cars becomes bigger than the increase in car usage.
There's also the idea that electric cars will be able to help load balance renewables: batteries of cars not in use would be able to soak up the excess and give some back during low periods.
It'd be interesting to see how such a distributed storage effort would work in practice.
Might not affect oil prices even if a lot of electric cars and oil/gas will be soaked up replacing coal which pretty much everyone seems to agree is on the way out.
From what I have read over the years on here , you have never wanted Labour to win under Brown or Milliband. You voted Lib Dem and was happy with coalition hardly effective opposition. There is a competent party in Scotland the SNP to oppose the government. However you were against them to.
I voted Labour in May. I don't support the break-up of the UK. You're right though, I don't want Jeremy Corbyn as PM. He is an economically illiterate apologist for murder and terrorism. I am pretty confident my wish will come true.
What is with this word "terrorism" that the Brits are so hung up about ?
Mandela was a "terrorist" until he acquired the position of the greatest statesman of the 20th century.
We [ or, Aparthied South Africa ] negotiated with him and the ANC.
Kenyatta was a "terrorist". We recognised him as the leader of Kenya.
Mugabe was a "terrorist". We recognised him as the leader of Zimbabwe.
Gaddafi was a "terrorist". We then shook his hand in a Beduin tent for oil. Finally, we created circumstances to have him butchered.
Martin McGuinness was a "terrorist". He is now the stable force in the Northern Ireland government. The Unionists are the unstable lot.
In the end , we talk to all of them. Why not earlier ? Sometimes it could save lives.
You should only negotiate with terrorists in three circumstances:
1. When you recognise that they have a point and that you are in fact in the wrong. 2. When they recognise that you have a point and renounce violence. 3. When you are in a fix and the fight and its consequences aren't worth the candle.
Step by step. Why have we made a pariah out of Assad ? I can think of , at least, 20 leaders world-wide who also butcher their people. Saudi's behead more people than Daesh. They are indiscriminately killing people in Yemen. Even the Pakistanis refused to work with them there despite the fact it is Pakistani soldiers who "man" the Saudi army.
Assad is the only secular leader in that region. We should have been supporting him from the beginning. We got carried away with the Arab spring [ Al-Sisi the murderer is no doubt a great follower of the Arab Spring. He is even invited to No.10 ] Our 70000 include great democrats like the Al-Nusra.
If we had not weakened Assad, Daesh would not found time and place to establish a base thanks to money from the Gulf, our friends !
Absolutely right. It was the Saudis and the Gulf states who fomented the uprising against Assad as they saw his secularism and his moderate Alawite strand of Shia Islam as an affront to their beliefs. And of course we - the West - will do absolutely anything to support the Saudis whilst ignoring their own crimes.
Do you have any evidence for that? It was the people on the streets that started the uprising. They only wanted the release of political prisoners and democratic reforms.
So: where's your evidence that Saudi and the Gulf States fomented the uprising? Especially as Saudi was having its own difficulties with the Arab Spring at the time.
Read 'Syria Burning' by Charles Glass. One of the most respected and well informed Middle Eastern journalists of the past 3 decades.
"One way to view the fanatic Islamicization of the Syrian revolution after 2011 is that it was the inevitable form of a rebellion inspired and financed by Saudi Wahhabism that sought not democracy but the elimination of rule by Alawite “infidels.” "
It's worth pointing out the the export of Saudi Wahhabism is as much about exporting trouble makers for the current Suadi Monarchy as anything else.
If you try and replace the Saudi government at the moment you will get the beards. And they are such fun....
From what I have read over the years on here , you have never wanted Labour to win under Brown or Milliband. You voted Lib Dem and was happy with coalition hardly effective opposition. There is a competent party in Scotland the SNP to oppose the government. However you were against them to.
I voted Labour in May. I don't support the break-up of the UK. You're right though, I don't want Jeremy Corbyn as PM. He is an economically illiterate apologist for murder and terrorism. I am pretty confident my wish will come true.
What is with this word "terrorism" that the Brits are so hung up about ?
Mandela was a "terrorist" until he acquired the position of the greatest statesman of the 20th century.
We [ or, Aparthied South Africa ] negotiated with him and the ANC.
Kenyatta was a "terrorist". We recognised him as the leader of Kenya.
Mugabe was a "terrorist". We recognised him as the leader of Zimbabwe.
Gaddafi was a "terrorist". We then shook his hand in a Beduin tent for oil. Finally, we created circumstances to have him butchered.
Martin McGuinness was a "terrorist". He is now the stable force in the Northern Ireland government. The Unionists are the unstable lot.
In the end , we talk to all of them. Why not earlier ? Sometimes it could save lives.
You should only negotiate with terrorists in three circumstances:
1. When you recognise that they have a point and that you are in fact in the wrong. 2. When they recognise that you have a point and renounce violence. 3. When you are in a fix and the fight and its consequences aren't worth the candle.
Plus, why shouldn't we negotiate with McGuinness. He was on our payroll, after all.
Banks such as Goldman Sachs predict they [oil prices] could fall further to as low as $20 per barrel as the world produces more oil than it consumes and runs out of capacity to store the excess.
There was some comment about the North Sea fields going out of production.
OPEC will not give up until Shale oil production is stopped.
In the meantime, watch the inexorable rise and rise of renewables. China and India have joined the game with the zeal of converts ! From Jan 1, New Delhi will only permit cars with odd and even number plates on alternate days.
The big deal will be when https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_1 comes on line. If it can deliver the drop in the price of Lithium batteries projected, then a cheap electric car - 300 mile range for $25k new - will be possible.
The question then is at what point the electric cars eating into the car market mean that net demand for petrol world wide *drops* on a sustained basis for the foresable future. That is, the increase in electric cars becomes bigger than the increase in car usage.
There's also the idea that electric cars will be able to help load balance renewables: batteries of cars not in use would be able to soak up the excess and give some back during low periods.
It'd be interesting to see how such a distributed storage effort would work in practice.
Might not affect oil prices even if a lot of electric cars and oil/gas will be soaked up replacing coal which pretty much everyone seems to agree is on the way out.
The point is that if take up of electric cars reverses the *increase* in demand for oil to fuel vehicles. Wouldn't take much to do that...
Perhaps we could agree that Labour increased its vote share on a much reduced turnout then? The part we don't know is the reasons for the reduced turnout....
1) don't like Labour anymore 2) dont like " terrorist sympathisers" 3) couldn't find me wellies and brolly.
As for the White Christmas thingy it was part of a compilation of Crimbo carols I understand and therefore in no way racial. Had this been the only one played then I would then agree the line could have been construed as technically crossed. They didn't so it wasn't.
How many by-elections are you aware of where the turnout was higher than the preceding general election ?
No idea, couldn't be arsed to look either but I guess more hens teeth are likely to be found. The point remains that this seems a compromise position for all and what actually happened on the day.
It happened fairly frequently through to the early 1970s but has been rare since then and hasn't happened at all since 1982 (Glasgow Hillhead).
Thanks. I suspect that unless there is a specific protest to be had this will continue. The Labour guy had a very good reputation I understand from previous work in the council but he now of course is just another MP on the centre left and not one of the new inner circle. Who replaces him on the NEC as council rep as I believe he held that position. It will be an interesting question and not sure if that is a direct appointment or is that person elected by members?
What I wanted to read most, ahead of an expected Commons vote on air strikes against Isis in Syria, was expert analysis of what such action might achieve. But a small crop of articles about that was dwarfed by a mountain of cuttings about the other war – inside the Labour Party.
UKIP's potential in the North will be along the eastern coast rather than the west. It also requires Tories to see them as a necessary buffer/counter to Labour so that tactical votes can be accumulated. That happened in Heywood, but never happened Thursday.
Under Corbyn the Tories don't need a buffer against Labour.
I agree. However it would be good if someone did oppose the government of the day. The choice we were given was hardly inspiring. Slightly less austerity was hardly the best policy to get the vote out. Camerons conservatives have now joined this party
''I'd say 2017 personally, but certainly before next GE. The Eurozone is not looking too good for starters. Draghi had to announce more anti-deflation measures yesterday. China not good. US though might keep us all afloat.''
This is the most radical and best piece of economic forecasting I have read in years. And if Friday's US jobs report is anything to go by, it could be right.
Whichever answer they give me, I always listen in humbled admiration. What extraordinary contacts these experts must have, to be able to declare with certainty what the Isil leadership privately thinks about British foreign policy. Too embarrassed to confess that I have never befriended even a junior member of the Isil hierarchy, I keep my mouth bashfully shut.
In other words, the market has assumed that it's ~80% likely that the winner will come from the 2nd SF.
I'd guess, if Wenbo makes it through, he'll be down to ~7/2 to win the final. If it's Grace, he'll be down to ~10/1. Those are back of the fag packet estimates from someone who only casually watches snooker! Good/bad/exhausting SF performances could impact those odds assumptions ^ significantly.
The Ukip people were silly to cry foul on Friday morning. They had no real evidence.
The police are not going to investigate anyway. Why would they? Even if true, it's very unlikely to have affected the result and they'd be immediately accused of racism.
It's a pity they let their disappointment show. Now you're going to have a few people going round mumbling "Tower Hamlets ... Tower Hamlets." etc.
Lose graciously, swallow your disappointment and learn from it.
It looks like the days of the UK having a surplus on income from foreign investments might be over for good:
' The UK’s international investment position abroad (outward FDI position) decreased from £1,024.6 billion to £1,015.4 billion between 2013 and 2014, the lowest level recorded since 2009 (£981.5 billion). The 2014 estimate also marked the third consecutive annual decline since 2011 (£1,090.9 billion).
The international investment position in the UK by overseas residents and businesses (inward FDI positions) at the end of 2014 reached £1,034.3 billion, up from £910.3 billion in 2013. The level of inward investment in 2014 was the highest on record, having continued to follow an upward trend in recent decades. '
If the UK runs a permanent trade deficit and a permanent tourism deficit and has a deficit on government transactions (overseas aid, EU contributions etc) and has a deficit on investments then something will have to change and likely have to change soon. That something will involve a big reduction in living standards.
Agreed. Of all the media, only William Keegan in the Observer seems to be pointing out how truly poor UK position is. At some point there will be a reckoning. Presumably with an attack on the pound. Where will interest rates go then?
As I've said before on here, I personally can't see Osborne getting to 2020 election without some kind of recession or even deeper economic crisis. But who knows. Forecasting is a mug's game.
A Tory cllr of my acquaintance who claims to know about financial matters had long stated 2018 is going to be when this all comes crashing down on whoever was in power by then. I'm sure that's a guess like any other, but it feels right.
It is a guess but the fundamental point that you cannot indefinitely run deficits across the board and sell off current or future assets to balance the books has to be right.
But the PB posters are not balanced but predominately right wing English and Tory. Nothing wrong with that. You would have to have serious human difficulties to support the "White Christmas" party led by Farrage and serious intellectual ones to support the Fib/Dems led by that walking disaster Farron. Given that this site is never likely to be stuffed with Corbynestas then that would only leave the new Bennites and I think it will take more than one well delivered but badly argued, speech to establish that.
I had the pleasure of working on a project with Peter Oborne some years ago in London and I think he is a fine man and a good, principled journalist. That's why he got pushed out of the Daily Telegraph - a sewage machine which makes Momentum look democratic and diverse.
Finally I do think that one reason the SNP are totally dominant in Scotland is that they are regarded as competent in Government. For example Salmond in office very quickly took the decision to replace the Forth Bridge - a decision that Tory and Labour/Fib Government's had ducked for twenty years.
Scotslass
I believe it will need a Keir Stamer type MP to help Labour. As the English will only vote for the officer class to be PM. Atlee , Wilson Blair all Oxbridge types only the Conservatives could get a Major type elected .
As usual a good piece from David but it is surely hard to take the threat of UKIP to Labour in the north seriously after the Oldham result. It is hard to imagine a backdrop less propitious to Labour than has existed over the last week or so.
I also have reservations about the difficulties of an SDP II if it had sufficient members in the HoC. Would they not get short money for a start?
Re SDP2, yes, a sizable parliamentary party would get Short money but what about members, big donors, campaigning information and so on? Starting a national party from scratch is an immense ask. There's then the question of whether they too look to do a deal with the Lib Dems. There are good tactical reasons (the same ones, in fact) for going down the same road as the 1980s but then won't that just lead to the same destination? If so, why not cut out the middleman and just defect? Except that for all the LDs need revitalising, to accept, say, 30 ex-Lab MPs (never mind more) would swamp them at the top end and be in effect a reverse takeover. But if they compete against each other then they risk both failing. On the other hand, if they've been booted out of the PLP, or are about to be, what do they have to lose?
Commit Labour to PR, STV. Then the tricky bit - gain power. Then all parties can split as they choose.
If anyone is a fan of betting on First Player to be carded in football matches, Betfair have just started doing it, and I have put up some prices on the live tv matches
Should beat best price from the bookie on most players I imagine
I missed the bit where Corbyn was talking to ISIS.
He says we should. And given that he and McDonnell say that their links with the IRA were to advance the peace process, why are they not coming up with their own proposals to talk to IS or even going over there to do so? Corbyn also says that all wars end when the opposing sides talk to each other. Not so. To take one obvious example, WW2 didn't. Unconditional surrender was the aim and unconditional surrender is what the Allies got.
IS have never shown - by words or deeds - any desire whatever for any sort of dialogue. So the demands for talks and understanding their grievances and dialogue shows, at best, a woeful misunderstanding of the nature of the organisation we are dealing with. Corbyn et al are taking an analogue approach in a digital age.
To suggest that we should talk to Daesh is like saying we should stroke a rabid dog.
But the PB posters are not balanced but predominately right wing English and Tory. Nothing wrong with that. You would have to have serious human difficulties to support the "White Christmas" party led by Farrage and serious intellectual ones to support the Fib/Dems led by that walking disaster Farron. Given that this site is never likely to be stuffed with Corbynestas then that would only leave the new Bennites and I think it will take more than one well delivered but badly argued, speech to establish that.
I had the pleasure of working on a project with Peter Oborne some years ago in London and I think he is a fine man and a good, principled journalist. That's why he got pushed out of the Daily Telegraph - a sewage machine which makes Momentum look democratic and diverse.
Finally I do think that one reason the SNP are totally dominant in Scotland is that they are regarded as competent in Government. For example Salmond in office very quickly took the decision to replace the Forth Bridge - a decision that Tory and Labour/Fib Government's had ducked for twenty years.
Scotslass
I believe it will need a Keir Stamer type MP to help Labour. As the English will only vote for the officer class to be PM. Atlee , Wilson Blair all Oxbridge types only the Conservatives could get a Major type elected .
You have a point. He also did not betray the party as a whole.
If anyone is a fan of betting on First Player to be carded in football matches, Betfair have just started doing it, and I have put up some prices on the live tv matches
Should beat best price from the bookie on most players I imagine
I see Lee Cattermole is 2.62 to be booked today - he should be booked every time he walks on the pitch.
Banks such as Goldman Sachs predict they [oil prices] could fall further to as low as $20 per barrel as the world produces more oil than it consumes and runs out of capacity to store the excess.
There was some comment about the North Sea fields going out of production.
OPEC will not give up until Shale oil production is stopped.
In the meantime, watch the inexorable rise and rise of renewables. China and India have joined the game with the zeal of converts ! From Jan 1, New Delhi will only permit cars with odd and even number plates on alternate days.
The big deal will be when https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory_1 comes on line. If it can deliver the drop in the price of Lithium batteries projected, then a cheap electric car - 300 mile range for $25k new - will be possible.
The question then is at what point the electric cars eating into the car market mean that net demand for petrol world wide *drops* on a sustained basis for the foresable future. That is, the increase in electric cars becomes bigger than the increase in car usage.
There's also the idea that electric cars will be able to help load balance renewables: batteries of cars not in use would be able to soak up the excess and give some back during low periods.
It'd be interesting to see how such a distributed storage effort would work in practice.
I hope to sell a lot of controllers to them soon. Shhh !
This woman is accused of attacking her husband with several of his guitars. The judge asked "First offender?" She replied, "No, first a Gibson, second a Fender"
If anyone is a fan of betting on First Player to be carded in football matches, Betfair have just started doing it, and I have put up some prices on the live tv matches
Should beat best price from the bookie on most players I imagine
I see Lee Cattermole is 2.62 to be booked today - he should be booked every time he walks on the pitch.
I've bought Newcastle team bookings at 25 tomorrow
Step by step. Why have we made a pariah out of Assad ? I can think of , at least, 20 leaders world-wide who also butcher their people. Saudi's behead more people than Daesh. They are indiscriminately killing people in Yemen. Even the Pakistanis refused to work with them there despite the fact it is Pakistani soldiers who "man" the Saudi army.
Assad is the only secular leader in that region. We should have been supporting him from the beginning. We got carried away with the Arab spring [ Al-Sisi the murderer is no doubt a great follower of the Arab Spring. He is even invited to No.10 ] Our 70000 include great democrats like the Al-Nusra.
If we had not weakened Assad, Daesh would not found time and place to establish a base thanks to money from the Gulf, our friends !
Assad used chemical weapons. That is a line we in the west let Saddam cross in the 1980s, and that mistake helped contribute to the mess we are in now.
(It's surprising that the left, who were rightly condemning Thatcher and the west for ignoring the use of chemical weapons by Saddam, are now ignoring the use of those weapons by Assad).
And then there are the other crimes his regime has committed.
As for your last paragraph: Daesh already had a base in Iraq before Assad's latest troubles began.
But leaving all the above aside, Assad no longer has the moral authority, manpower or capability to manage the country alone. He;s only surviving because of the Iranian and Hezbollah troops, and he is their, and Putin's puppet.
The Saudis are doing just as nasty things in Yemen. They have previously used chemical weapons against the Bedouin and are now accused of using them in Yemen. They are just as guilty of acts of war against their own people and their neighbours as Syria and yet we ignore them and regard them as allies.
I am afraid trying to pick out one country as being uniquely bad or evil in the Middle East is a mugs game.
Absolutely. Our no.1 priority is to protect ourselves: we do this by destroying Daesh. Assad is a nasty piece of work but he doesn't threaten us or our interests. Nasty and locally powerful pieces of work are two a penny in the Middle East and many other parts of the world. We are where we are with Daesh because we did for Saddam and Gaddafi. Trying to do for Assad repeats that mistake. There seems little prospect of any exit strategy succeeding without Assad being involved unless Russia and Iran agree and participate (et tu Brute).
If anyone is a fan of betting on First Player to be carded in football matches, Betfair have just started doing it, and I have put up some prices on the live tv matches
Should beat best price from the bookie on most players I imagine
Depends on liquidity but will beat the bookies for sure.
''I'd say 2017 personally, but certainly before next GE. The Eurozone is not looking too good for starters. Draghi had to announce more anti-deflation measures yesterday. China not good. US though might keep us all afloat.''
This is the most radical and best piece of economic forecasting I have read in years. And if Friday's US jobs report is anything to go by, it could be right.
Why do you think mass emigration has started ? There are jobs to had with no one to do it. But soon even developing countries will start running out of labour.
taffys thanks for that very interesting read. I do note the following paragraph that makes me think that life will not be as rosy for workers as the Professor believes. "Professor Goodhart makes large assumptions. He doubts that robots will displace workers fast enough to offset the labour shortage, or that greying nations are culturally able to absorb enough immigrants to plug the jobs gap, or that India and Africa have the infrastructure to repeat the "China effect". "
For example IMHO driverless cars will destroy jobs for taxi drivers, delivery people and lorry drivers within 10 years.
taffys thanks for that very interesting read. I do note the following paragraph that makes me think that life will not be as rosy for workers as the Professor believes. "Professor Goodhart makes large assumptions. He doubts that robots will displace workers fast enough to offset the labour shortage, or that greying nations are culturally able to absorb enough immigrants to plug the jobs gap, or that India and Africa have the infrastructure to repeat the "China effect". "
For example IMHO driverless cars will destroy jobs for taxi drivers, delivery people and lorry drivers within 10 years.
Yeah. I can see robots carrying a large refrigerator up two floors and then ask for a cup of tea ! Plus 20 quid to put it in the correct spot.
We talk to terrorists in the end, yes, only idiots pretend we don't.
Perhaps the kurds and the Yazidis should have 'talked' to ISIS earlier.
Talk about a one way conversation...
Talked to a Kurdish friend of a work colleague yesterday. He pretty much killed the conversation when he said what he (and he claimed alot of Kurds) saw as solution to the ISIS issue.
The Kurds should be rewarded for their courage and heroism by finally getting their own sovereign state, nearly 100 years after WW1.
What the guys said was that an ISIS fighters caught should be shot out of hand. The civilians living in ISIS areas who were Sunni arabs should be expelled. Their homes and lands given to Kurds and their friends.
And the Kurds do have form. It was Kurdish militias that were mostly responsible for the Armenian, Assyrian and Pontic Greek genocides of 1915-23. Not sole responsibility of course, and given licence to do so by the Young Turks who were running the Ottoman empire at the time.
There are very few peoples with clean hands in the Middle East.
Practises such as scooping up postal votes on election day to deliver to the polling stations, have probably been rife for years, just another form of GOTV and "knocking up" to the activists there?
''I'd say 2017 personally, but certainly before next GE. The Eurozone is not looking too good for starters. Draghi had to announce more anti-deflation measures yesterday. China not good. US though might keep us all afloat.''
This is the most radical and best piece of economic forecasting I have read in years. And if Friday's US jobs report is anything to go by, it could be right.
Why do you think mass emigration has started ? There are jobs to had with no one to do it. But soon even developing countries will start running out of labour.
''I'd say 2017 personally, but certainly before next GE. The Eurozone is not looking too good for starters. Draghi had to announce more anti-deflation measures yesterday. China not good. US though might keep us all afloat.''
This is the most radical and best piece of economic forecasting I have read in years. And if Friday's US jobs report is anything to go by, it could be right.
Why do you think mass emigration has started ? There are jobs to had with no one to do it. But soon even developing countries will start running out of labour.
Is that a bad thing ? No, wage rates will rise.
More acurrately, the world is running out of people with a basic education, in reasonably stables states. An uneducated subsistence farmer is pretty much useless in any kind of manufacturing setting. Forget India/China have x billion people - the cohort who are potential industrial labour is much, much smaller. Growing as a proportion of the population, but less fast than demand.
A major part of this, is that as such counties grow richer, their internal demand for goods and services are taking off. China is actually losing manufacturing jobs - labour costs have risen to the point that automation is exploding there...
We talk to terrorists in the end, yes, only idiots pretend we don't.
Perhaps the kurds and the Yazidis should have 'talked' to ISIS earlier.
Talk about a one way conversation...
Talked to a Kurdish friend of a work colleague yesterday. He pretty much killed the conversation when he said what he (and he claimed alot of Kurds) saw as solution to the ISIS issue.
The Kurds should be rewarded for their courage and heroism by finally getting their own sovereign state, nearly 100 years after WW1.
What the guys said was that an ISIS fighters caught should be shot out of hand. The civilians living in ISIS areas who were Sunni arabs should be expelled. Their homes and lands given to Kurds and their friends.
And the Kurds do have form. It was Kurdish militias that were mostly responsible for the Armenian, Assyrian and Pontic Greek genocides of 1915-23. Not sole responsibility of course, and given licence to do so by the Young Turks who were running the Ottoman empire at the time.
There are very few peoples with clean hands in the Middle East.
WE always like to have our "latest" friends. The Kurds are the latest. PKK chaps are nice fellas really !
taffys thanks for that very interesting read. I do note the following paragraph that makes me think that life will not be as rosy for workers as the Professor believes. "Professor Goodhart makes large assumptions. He doubts that robots will displace workers fast enough to offset the labour shortage, or that greying nations are culturally able to absorb enough immigrants to plug the jobs gap, or that India and Africa have the infrastructure to repeat the "China effect". "
For example IMHO driverless cars will destroy jobs for taxi drivers, delivery people and lorry drivers within 10 years.
Yeah. I can see robots carrying a large refrigerator up two floors and then ask for a cup of tea ! Plus 20 quid to put it in the correct spot.
taffys thanks for that very interesting read. I do note the following paragraph that makes me think that life will not be as rosy for workers as the Professor believes. "Professor Goodhart makes large assumptions. He doubts that robots will displace workers fast enough to offset the labour shortage, or that greying nations are culturally able to absorb enough immigrants to plug the jobs gap, or that India and Africa have the infrastructure to repeat the "China effect". "
For example IMHO driverless cars will destroy jobs for taxi drivers, delivery people and lorry drivers within 10 years.
Yeah. I can see robots carrying a large refrigerator up two floors and then ask for a cup of tea ! Plus 20 quid to put it in the correct spot.
Giggle if you like. The Japanese have projects to replace humans doing exactly this. Humaniform robots that unload from the van and carry it in. I figure less than 10 years to first commercial service.
''I'd say 2017 personally, but certainly before next GE. The Eurozone is not looking too good for starters. Draghi had to announce more anti-deflation measures yesterday. China not good. US though might keep us all afloat.''
This is the most radical and best piece of economic forecasting I have read in years. And if Friday's US jobs report is anything to go by, it could be right.
Why do you think mass emigration has started ? There are jobs to had with no one to do it. But soon even developing countries will start running out of labour.
''I'd say 2017 personally, but certainly before next GE. The Eurozone is not looking too good for starters. Draghi had to announce more anti-deflation measures yesterday. China not good. US though might keep us all afloat.''
This is the most radical and best piece of economic forecasting I have read in years. And if Friday's US jobs report is anything to go by, it could be right.
Why do you think mass emigration has started ? There are jobs to had with no one to do it. But soon even developing countries will start running out of labour.
Is that a bad thing ? No, wage rates will rise.
More acurrately, the world is running out of people with a basic education, in reasonably stables states. An uneducated subsistence farmer is pretty much useless in any kind of manufacturing setting. Forget India/China have x billion people - the cohort who are potential industrial labour is much, much smaller. Growing as a proportion of the population, but less fast than demand.
A major part of this, is that as such counties grow richer, their internal demand for goods and services are taking off. China is actually losing manufacturing jobs - labour costs have risen to the point that automation is exploding there...
We sell automation in China. After enjoying growth rates in excess of first, 100%, then 50% , the last two years have given us negative growth rates. One State owned company was selling to another on credit. The balloon had to burst sooner rather than later.
The population crunch coming will be a disaster. Also, the major gender imbalance.
taffys thanks for that very interesting read. I do note the following paragraph that makes me think that life will not be as rosy for workers as the Professor believes. "Professor Goodhart makes large assumptions. He doubts that robots will displace workers fast enough to offset the labour shortage, or that greying nations are culturally able to absorb enough immigrants to plug the jobs gap, or that India and Africa have the infrastructure to repeat the "China effect". "
For example IMHO driverless cars will destroy jobs for taxi drivers, delivery people and lorry drivers within 10 years.
Yeah. I can see robots carrying a large refrigerator up two floors and then ask for a cup of tea ! Plus 20 quid to put it in the correct spot.
''I'd say 2017 personally, but certainly before next GE. The Eurozone is not looking too good for starters. Draghi had to announce more anti-deflation measures yesterday. China not good. US though might keep us all afloat.''
This is the most radical and best piece of economic forecasting I have read in years. And if Friday's US jobs report is anything to go by, it could be right.
Why do you think mass emigration has started ? There are jobs to had with no one to do it. But soon even developing countries will start running out of labour.
''I'd say 2017 personally, but certainly before next GE. The Eurozone is not looking too good for starters. Draghi had to announce more anti-deflation measures yesterday. China not good. US though might keep us all afloat.''
This is the most radical and best piece of economic forecasting I have read in years. And if Friday's US jobs report is anything to go by, it could be right.
Why do you think mass emigration has started ? There are jobs to had with no one to do it. But soon even developing countries will start running out of labour.
Is that a bad thing ? No, wage rates will rise.
More acurrately, the world is running out of people with a basic education, in reasonably stables states. An uneducated subsistence farmer is pretty much useless in any kind of manufacturing setting. Forget India/China have x billion people - the cohort who are potential industrial labour is much, much smaller. Growing as a proportion of the population, but less fast than demand.
A major part of this, is that as such counties grow richer, their internal demand for goods and services are taking off. China is actually losing manufacturing jobs - labour costs have risen to the point that automation is exploding there...
We sell automation in China. After enjoying growth rates in excess of first, 100%, then 50% , the last two years have given us negative growth rates. One State owned company was selling to another on credit. The balloon had to burst sooner rather than later.
The population crunch coming will be a disaster. Also, the major gender imbalance.
I missed the bit where Corbyn was talking to ISIS. </blockquote We're not at war with the so called Islamic State, though, are we, so there's nothing to negotiate on. There is absolutely nothing for us to talk about. Our way of life and culture is totally incompatible with the stated aims of the so called Islamic State. Whether we bomb or not, they still want to kill us on our own streets. They will still behead, rape, burn and destroy anything that doesn't fit with their ideals. I genuinely don't think there is a solution, short of all out ground war in the Middle East, and Draconian laws and actions back home, which won't be palatable. As I think Sean Fear said a while back, we can't make them live like us, democracy as we like to practice it just isn't how many other countries can function, so maybe it's time we understood that, and stepped back from trying to democratise them.
''I'd say 2017 personally, but certainly before next GE. The Eurozone is not looking too good for starters. Draghi had to announce more anti-deflation measures yesterday. China not good. US though might keep us all afloat.''
This is the most radical and best piece of economic forecasting I have read in years. And if Friday's US jobs report is anything to go by, it could be right.
Why do you think mass emigration has started ? There are jobs to had with no one to do it. But soon even developing countries will start running out of labour.
Is that a bad thing ? No, wage rates will rise.
There is an awful lot of talk about a lot of jobs being lost to robots/computers. There was an interesting article on Zero Hedge about the use of robots in the fast food industry and also use in warehouses. This does not bode well for low skilled workers.
I need to have my ears checked. Just thought I heard Sir Ian McKellan say 'Support Isis at Christmas' on a radio advert - of course it was really 'Crisis at Christmas'. The real insight for me was that I was only mildly surprised when I misheard it.
''There is an awful lot of talk about a lot of jobs being lost to robots/computers. ''
This is always difficult to calculate. The same was said about computers thirty years ago, and yet there are more jobs than ever.
And of course there have been periods of high unemployment even when muscle was vital and most women weren;t even in the workforce (such as the 1930s).
I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?
''Why do you think mass emigration has started ? There are jobs to had with no one to do it. But soon even developing countries will start running out of labour.''
It would be funny if, say in thirty years, western countries were desperately trying to attract what they could have had for free now, a huge pool of people.
I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?
Read 'Syria Burning' by Charles Glass. One of the most respected and well informed Middle Eastern journalists of the past 3 decades.
"One way to view the fanatic Islamicization of the Syrian revolution after 2011 is that it was the inevitable form of a rebellion inspired and financed by Saudi Wahhabism that sought not democracy but the elimination of rule by Alawite “infidels.” "
I'll have to get that book, thanks.
But note it says "One way to view ..." It'd be interesting to see what evidence he has for that 'one way to view', and if he has any other ways to view it.
Besides, it's not as if there had not been significant Sunni-Shia violence before in Syria, brutally put down by the regime.
Iran had apparently been helping Assad before the protests began in 2011 (help going back to the election protests a few years earlier). Having another Shia state help put down protests was hardly going to endear the Sunni majority in Syria to the regime.
And that's the core of the problem: a Shai-minority dictator ruling a Shia-majority country was never going to be stable in the long term.
I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?
Can you relink ?
Scared of being called a terrorist sympathiser perhaps?
'Mr Benn, who supports military intervention to protect civilians, said he did not think the Government was planning to come forward with a proposal to extend air strikes from Iraq into Syria.
But asked if he thought they should, Mr Benn said: “No.” He added: “They have to come up with an overall plan, which they have not done. I think the focus for now is finding a peaceful solution to the civil war.”
The shadow Foreign Secretary added: “The most useful contribution we can make is to support as a nation the peace talks that have started. That is the single most important thing we can do.”
Mr Benn’s intervention came in a wide-ranging interview in which he said he was “certain” that Jeremy Corbyn could become Prime Minister in 2020, and revealed that he first met the Labour leader as a youngster when he was doing his homework while his dad held meetings with political supporters.
However, it is Mr Benn’s remarks against Syrian intervention which are likely to cause the most concern in Downing Street.'
''I'd say 2017 personally, but certainly before next GE. The Eurozone is not looking too good for starters. Draghi had to announce more anti-deflation measures yesterday. China not good. US though might keep us all afloat.''
This is the most radical and best piece of economic forecasting I have read in years. And if Friday's US jobs report is anything to go by, it could be right.
Why do you think mass emigration has started ? There are jobs to had with no one to do it. But soon even developing countries will start running out of labour.
Is that a bad thing ? No, wage rates will rise.
There is an awful lot of talk about a lot of jobs being lost to robots/computers. There was an interesting article on Zero Hedge about the use of robots in the fast food industry and also use in warehouses. This does not bode well for low skilled workers.
Read 'Syria Burning' by Charles Glass. One of the most respected and well informed Middle Eastern journalists of the past 3 decades.
"One way to view the fanatic Islamicization of the Syrian revolution after 2011 is that it was the inevitable form of a rebellion inspired and financed by Saudi Wahhabism that sought not democracy but the elimination of rule by Alawite “infidels.” "
I'll have to get that book, thanks.
But note it says "One way to view ..." It'd be interesting to see what evidence he has for that 'one way to view', and if he has any other ways to view it.
Besides, it's not as if there had not been significant Sunni-Shia violence before in Syria, brutally put down by the regime.
Iran had apparently been helping Assad before the protests began in 2011 (help going back to the election protests a few years earlier). Having another Shia state help put down protests was hardly going to endear the Sunni majority in Syria to the regime.
And that's the core of the problem: a Shai-minority dictator ruling a Shia-majority country was never going to be stable in the long term.
Out at the moment but will find the link to the article I quoted from by Glass when I get home. If you put in that quote to Google it will probably bring up the article. As I remember he goes on to talk about fratricidal conflict within Syria as another factor but he concludes at the end that unsurprisingly it is a combination of all these factors.
Read 'Syria Burning' by Charles Glass. One of the most respected and well informed Middle Eastern journalists of the past 3 decades.
"One way to view the fanatic Islamicization of the Syrian revolution after 2011 is that it was the inevitable form of a rebellion inspired and financed by Saudi Wahhabism that sought not democracy but the elimination of rule by Alawite “infidels.” "
I'll have to get that book, thanks.
But note it says "One way to view ..." It'd be interesting to see what evidence he has for that 'one way to view', and if he has any other ways to view it.
Besides, it's not as if there had not been significant Sunni-Shia violence before in Syria, brutally put down by the regime.
Iran had apparently been helping Assad before the protests began in 2011 (help going back to the election protests a few years earlier). Having another Shia state help put down protests was hardly going to endear the Sunni majority in Syria to the regime.
And that's the core of the problem: a Shai-minority dictator ruling a Shia-majority country was never going to be stable in the long term.
I agree that Sunni and Shia seem to be universally uncomfortable bedfellows. The West has been slow appreciating just how uncomfortable judging by the mess it created in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East. The West is now failing to recognise just how uncomfortable bedfellows Islam and democracy are by continually thinking that if we can get them into bed together, that's job done.
I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?
If a week is a long time in politics, then three....is ample time for a volte-face.
''I'd say 2017 personally, but certainly before next GE. The Eurozone is not looking too good for starters. Draghi had to announce more anti-deflation measures yesterday. China not good. US though might keep us all afloat.''
Why do you think mass emigration has started ? There are jobs to had with no one to do it. But soon even developing countries will start running out of labour.
''I'd say 2017 personally, but certainly before next GE. The Eurozone is not looking too good for starters. Draghi had to announce more anti-deflation measures yesterday. China not good. US though might keep us all afloat.''
This is the most radical and best piece of economic forecasting I have read in years. And if Friday's US jobs report is anything to go by, it could be right.
Why do you think mass emigration has started ? There are jobs to had with no one to do it. But soon even developing countries will start running out of labour.
Is that a bad thing ? No, wage rates will rise.
A major part of this, is that as such counties grow richer, their internal demand for goods and services are taking off. China is actually losing manufacturing jobs - labour costs have risen to the point that automation is exploding there...
We sell automation in China. After enjoying growth rates in excess of first, 100%, then 50% , the last two years have given us negative growth rates. One State owned company was selling to another on credit. The balloon had to burst sooner rather than later.
The population crunch coming will be a disaster. Also, the major gender imbalance.
First country to get old before it got rich...
The withdrawl of the one-child policy was , at least, 10 years too late. In some rural areas, the boys:girls ratio is 135:100. Pathetic.
Other countries have done it differently. Bangladesh has per capita GDP 40% lower than India. Yet child mortality is lower, life expectancy is higher and the number of children born per fertile age woman is lower.
On topic, 90% of Bangladeshis are Muslims. Yet 97% of girls go to school. Higher than India and much higher than Pakistan.
Did you see the comment from Osborne? About being one of the first to congratulate Corbyn. They were on the same train to Manchester on Friday.
Probably write secret coded messages to each other.
Could I vote Tory?.... No! Could I vote Labour? Never! Could I vote L/Dem? I feel sick! Could I vote Green? I'm even more sick! Could I vote SNP? No! Never have the chance! Could I vote BNP? Eeech! Never ever!
So the only Party I can vote for is UKIP, but I wish they would grow up quickly. I can see myself not voting for them in the future. However I will send 100 Postal votes supporting OUT, in the EU referendum.
I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?
Can you relink ?
Scared of being called a terrorist sympathiser perhaps?
'Mr Benn, who supports military intervention to protect civilians, said he did not think the Government was planning to come forward with a proposal to extend air strikes from Iraq into Syria.
But asked if he thought they should, Mr Benn said: “No.” He added: “They have to come up with an overall plan, which they have not done. I think the focus for now is finding a peaceful solution to the civil war.”
The shadow Foreign Secretary added: “The most useful contribution we can make is to support as a nation the peace talks that have started. That is the single most important thing we can do.”
Mr Benn’s intervention came in a wide-ranging interview in which he said he was “certain” that Jeremy Corbyn could become Prime Minister in 2020, and revealed that he first met the Labour leader as a youngster when he was doing his homework while his dad held meetings with political supporters.
However, it is Mr Benn’s remarks against Syrian intervention which are likely to cause the most concern in Downing Street.'
"Or alternatively, there’s time for both sides to get serious. Ironically, while McMahon’s election has tipped the PLP rightwards, it may have sent Labour’s NEC the other way (as he’s a councillor representative in it; a role he’ll presumably have to stand down from now)."
Ann Lucas from Coventry Council replaces McMahon on the NEC. So it stays on the right.
''I'd say 2017 personally, but certainly before next GE. The Eurozone is not looking too good for starters. Draghi had to announce more anti-deflation measures yesterday. China not good. US though might keep us all afloat.''
This is the most radical and best piece of economic forecasting I have read in years. And if Friday's US jobs report is anything to go by, it could be right.
Why do you think mass emigration has started ? There are jobs to had with no one to do it. But soon even developing countries will start running out of labour.
Is that a bad thing ? No, wage rates will rise.
There is an awful lot of talk about a lot of jobs being lost to robots/computers. There was an interesting article on Zero Hedge about the use of robots in the fast food industry and also use in warehouses. This does not bode well for low skilled workers.
Although these type of articles have been written for at least 250 years and the world seems to have got by; indeed, prospered.
Personally I find the potential advances quite exciting. I do worry that there will be a large section of society left behind without adequate support to re-skill.
''I'd say 2017 personally, but certainly before next GE. The Eurozone is not looking too good for starters. Draghi had to announce more anti-deflation measures yesterday. China not good. US though might keep us all afloat.''
This is the most radical and best piece of economic forecasting I have read in years. And if Friday's US jobs report is anything to go by, it could be right.
Why do you think mass emigration has started ? There are jobs to had with no one to do it. But soon even developing countries will start running out of labour.
Is that a bad thing ? No, wage rates will rise.
There is an awful lot of talk about a lot of jobs being lost to robots/computers. There was an interesting article on Zero Hedge about the use of robots in the fast food industry and also use in warehouses. This does not bode well for low skilled workers.
Although these type of articles have been written for at least 250 years and the world seems to have got by; indeed, prospered.
True Dave, but in an overpopulated world, the tipping point may have been reached. And another thing; the new robots coming on line are truly remarkable.
And talking of overpopulation, Oxford Street Tube Station has closed over 130 times in the past year. Too many passengers for an antiquated system to cope with.
"Or alternatively, there’s time for both sides to get serious. Ironically, while McMahon’s election has tipped the PLP rightwards, it may have sent Labour’s NEC the other way (as he’s a councillor representative in it; a role he’ll presumably have to stand down from now)."
Ann Lucas from Coventry Council replaces McMahon on the NEC. So it stays on the right.
Hah !
Amusing to hear Lucas deswcribed as on the right, but I guess Mutton is more Corbynista.
''I'd say 2017 personally, but certainly before next GE. The Eurozone is not looking too good for starters. Draghi had to announce more anti-deflation measures yesterday. China not good. US though might keep us all afloat.''
This is the most radical and best piece of economic forecasting I have read in years. And if Friday's US jobs report is anything to go by, it could be right.
Why do you think mass emigration has started ? There are jobs to had with no one to do it. But soon even developing countries will start running out of labour.
Is that a bad thing ? No, wage rates will rise.
There is an awful lot of talk about a lot of jobs being lost to robots/computers. There was an interesting article on Zero Hedge about the use of robots in the fast food industry and also use in warehouses. This does not bode well for low skilled workers.
Although these type of articles have been written for at least 250 years and the world seems to have got by; indeed, prospered.
True Dave, but in an overpopulated world, the tipping point may have been reached. And another thing; the new robots coming on line are truly remarkable.
I think a century ago the robots and computers etc we take for granted now would be considered truly remarkable. In a centuries time people will be massovely more prosperous than today and fretting about the impact of the "truly remarkable" technology yet to come ...
Read 'Syria Burning' by Charles Glass. One of the most respected and well informed Middle Eastern journalists of the past 3 decades.
"One way to view the fanatic Islamicization of the Syrian revolution after 2011 is that it was the inevitable form of a rebellion inspired and financed by Saudi Wahhabism that sought not democracy but the elimination of rule by Alawite “infidels.” "
I'll have to get that book, thanks.
But note it says "One way to view ..." It'd be interesting to see what evidence he has for that 'one way to view', and if he has any other ways to view it.
Besides, it's not as if there had not been significant Sunni-Shia violence before in Syria, brutally put down by the regime.
Iran had apparently been helping Assad before the protests began in 2011 (help going back to the election protests a few years earlier). Having another Shia state help put down protests was hardly going to endear the Sunni majority in Syria to the regime.
And that's the core of the problem: a Shai-minority dictator ruling a Shia-majority country was never going to be stable in the long term.
Out at the moment but will find the link to the article I quoted from by Glass when I get home. If you put in that quote to Google it will probably bring up the article. As I remember he goes on to talk about fratricidal conflict within Syria as another factor but he concludes at the end that unsurprisingly it is a combination of all these factors.
'In a centuries time people will be massovely more prosperous than today and fretting about the impact of the "truly remarkable" technology yet to come ...''
Some feminists are so worried about the impact of sex robots they are urging for them to be banned.
taffys thanks for that very interesting read. I do note the following paragraph that makes me think that life will not be as rosy for workers as the Professor believes. "Professor Goodhart makes large assumptions. He doubts that robots will displace workers fast enough to offset the labour shortage, or that greying nations are culturally able to absorb enough immigrants to plug the jobs gap, or that India and Africa have the infrastructure to repeat the "China effect". "
For example IMHO driverless cars will destroy jobs for taxi drivers, delivery people and lorry drivers within 10 years.
No chance of your last paragraph coming true within ten years.
I posted a link earlier, and am surprised no one has commented, to an interview last month, after the Paris atrocities, where Hilary Benn all but rules out air strikes on Syria... I don't get why more isn't made of this or at least an answer found as to why he changed his mind?
If a week is a long time in politics, then three....is ample time for a volte-face.
Or a change of mind. As Admiral "Mad Jack" Fisher put it - "Ain't I to wear a waterproof when it rains?"
KLE4..The group of colleagues at the BBC who opined it was spin .. to cover the massive drop in numbers...were all Labour supporters..
I don't understand their reasoning in the slightest, whoever they support. I decry spin from all quarters, and Labour are, like all wins in safe seat by elections, milking it further than is justified, but to think merely that to state it was a good result is spin? Ridiculous. The only possible explanation for them I can think of is they are the mythical Lab fanatic BBC supporters who thought an unprecedentedly magnificent victory was sure to happen with the amazing Corbyn in charge, so it must be a disappointment somehow. Utterly preposterous.
taffys thanks for that very interesting read. I do note the following paragraph that makes me think that life will not be as rosy for workers as the Professor believes. "Professor Goodhart makes large assumptions. He doubts that robots will displace workers fast enough to offset the labour shortage, or that greying nations are culturally able to absorb enough immigrants to plug the jobs gap, or that India and Africa have the infrastructure to repeat the "China effect". "
For example IMHO driverless cars will destroy jobs for taxi drivers, delivery people and lorry drivers within 10 years.
No chance of your last paragraph coming true within ten years.
Complete elimination? No. But lorry driving in big open cast mines is in the process of being automated. Now....
In the world at large, we will see the first automated vehicles licensed for the road in a limited capacity quite soon - production vehicles, that is.
They seem to think 10,722 is an increase on 14,738......really, Scottish education!
But 39% is an increase on 34%!
Majorities are typically quoted in terms of the absolute number, not percentages.
No they're not.
Yes they are, unless an election is conducted by an electoral college where the 'count' is measured in percentages. Otherwise, it's 'lead in the share of the vote'. The headline is at best misleading, if not downright inaccurate.
taffys thanks for that very interesting read. I do note the following paragraph that makes me think that life will not be as rosy for workers as the Professor believes. "Professor Goodhart makes large assumptions. He doubts that robots will displace workers fast enough to offset the labour shortage, or that greying nations are culturally able to absorb enough immigrants to plug the jobs gap, or that India and Africa have the infrastructure to repeat the "China effect". "
For example IMHO driverless cars will destroy jobs for taxi drivers, delivery people and lorry drivers within 10 years.
No chance of your last paragraph coming true within ten years.
Complete elimination? No. But lorry driving in big open cast mines is in the process of being automated. Now....
In the world at large, we will see the first automated vehicles licensed for the road in a limited capacity quite soon - production vehicles, that is.
I know about those. But the problems they have not fixed - or even attempted to fix - vastly outweigh the problems they have solved. Rain, for instance. Or fog. Or cities.
And the moment you need a driver on board on occasion, so the advantages largely disappear.
taffys thanks for that very interesting read. I do note the following paragraph that makes me think that life will not be as rosy for workers as the Professor believes. "Professor Goodhart makes large assumptions. He doubts that robots will displace workers fast enough to offset the labour shortage, or that greying nations are culturally able to absorb enough immigrants to plug the jobs gap, or that India and Africa have the infrastructure to repeat the "China effect". "
For example IMHO driverless cars will destroy jobs for taxi drivers, delivery people and lorry drivers within 10 years.
No chance of your last paragraph coming true within ten years.
Complete elimination? No. But lorry driving in big open cast mines is in the process of being automated. Now....
In the world at large, we will see the first automated vehicles licensed for the road in a limited capacity quite soon - production vehicles, that is.
I know about those. But the problems they have not fixed - or even attempted to fix - vastly outweigh the problems they have solved. Rain, for instance. Or fog. Or cities.
And the moment you need a driver on board on occasion, so the advantages largely disappear.
taffys thanks for that very interesting read. I do note the following paragraph that makes me think that life will not be as rosy for workers as the Professor believes. "Professor Goodhart makes large assumptions. He doubts that robots will displace workers fast enough to offset the labour shortage, or that greying nations are culturally able to absorb enough immigrants to plug the jobs gap, or that India and Africa have the infrastructure to repeat the "China effect". "
For example IMHO driverless cars will destroy jobs for taxi drivers, delivery people and lorry drivers within 10 years.
No chance of your last paragraph coming true within ten years.
Complete elimination? No. But lorry driving in big open cast mines is in the process of being automated. Now....
In the world at large, we will see the first automated vehicles licensed for the road in a limited capacity quite soon - production vehicles, that is.
I know about those. But the problems they have not fixed - or even attempted to fix - vastly outweigh the problems they have solved. Rain, for instance. Or fog. Or cities.
And the moment you need a driver on board on occasion, so the advantages largely disappear.
They seem to think 10,722 is an increase on 14,738......really, Scottish education!
But 39% is an increase on 34%!
Majorities are typically quoted in terms of the absolute number, not percentages.
No they're not.
Yes they are, unless an election is conducted by an electoral college where the 'count' is measured in percentages. Otherwise, it's 'lead in the share of the vote'. The headline is at best misleading, if not downright inaccurate.
Yes and its not as if anyone needs to over egg the pudding. Labour increased its share of the vote on a lower turnout in a by election. But it did not increase its majority. Its not an unusual performance. Oldham elected an MP well to the right of Corbyn and UKIP came nowhere is the message.
My boss has just reduced my £14,000 BY £4,000 TO £10,000..but that's ok...because he explained to me that there had been a shortfall in company income and as a percentage of monies available for salaries it was in fact a rise..geddit..I might have a little bit of bother at the bank.. and with the mortgage ..but they will understand.. they know all about percentages..
On the other hand, if the price level had dropped by 33% his 'real' income would have increased!
'In a centuries time people will be massovely more prosperous than today and fretting about the impact of the "truly remarkable" technology yet to come ...''
Some feminists are so worried about the impact of sex robots they are urging for them to be banned.
taffys thanks for that very interesting read. I do note the following paragraph that makes me think that life will not be as rosy for workers as the Professor believes. "Professor Goodhart makes large assumptions. He doubts that robots will displace workers fast enough to offset the labour shortage, or that greying nations are culturally able to absorb enough immigrants to plug the jobs gap, or that India and Africa have the infrastructure to repeat the "China effect". "
For example IMHO driverless cars will destroy jobs for taxi drivers, delivery people and lorry drivers within 10 years.
No chance of your last paragraph coming true within ten years.
Complete elimination? No. But lorry driving in big open cast mines is in the process of being automated. Now....
In the world at large, we will see the first automated vehicles licensed for the road in a limited capacity quite soon - production vehicles, that is.
I know about those. But the problems they have not fixed - or even attempted to fix - vastly outweigh the problems they have solved. Rain, for instance. Or fog. Or cities.
And the moment you need a driver on board on occasion, so the advantages largely disappear.
Mr Herdson, you may like an alternative suggestion for the derivation of 'I'll eat my hat if...':
"An alternative derivation has been put forward. This maintains that 'hattes' were mediaeval veal pies and hence the phrase derives from them. There is some evidence that 'hattes' were a form of pie. " http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/eat-my-hat.html
Many years ago I read a variation of this (source long since forgotten), that 'hatte' was a fermented milk concoction fed Dutch kids as a tonic. Thus it was a bargaining ploy by kids which evolved into the meaning of "I'm so confident this won't happen that I'll promise to do something really undesirable if it does."
If indeed it is a venison pie, eating your hat may be quite pleasurable, depending on the cook and the recipe.
My boss has just reduced my £14,000 BY £4,000 TO £10,000..but that's ok...because he explained to me that there had been a shortfall in company income and as a percentage of monies available for salaries it was in fact a rise..geddit..I might have a little bit of bother at the bank.. and with the mortgage ..but they will understand.. they know all about percentages..
On the other hand, if the price level had dropped by 33% his 'real' income would have increased!
Indeed - so you're happy for all benefits and wages to be cut by around 1% immediately as prices are falling?
Comments
It happened fairly frequently through to the early 1970s but has been rare since then and hasn't happened at all since 1982 (Glasgow Hillhead).
It'd be interesting to see how such a distributed storage effort would work in practice.
Might not affect oil prices even if a lot of electric cars and oil/gas will be soaked up replacing coal which pretty much everyone seems to agree is on the way out.
1. When you recognise that they have a point and that you are in fact in the wrong.
2. When they recognise that you have a point and renounce violence.
3. When you are in a fix and the fight and its consequences aren't worth the candle.
If you try and replace the Saudi government at the moment you will get the beards. And they are such fun....
The point is that if take up of electric cars reverses the *increase* in demand for oil to fuel vehicles. Wouldn't take much to do that...
However it would be good if someone did oppose the government of the day.
The choice we were given was hardly inspiring.
Slightly less austerity was hardly the best policy to get the vote out.
Camerons conservatives have now joined this party
This is the most radical and best piece of economic forecasting I have read in years. And if Friday's US jobs report is anything to go by, it could be right.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11882915/Deflation-supercyle-is-over-as-world-runs-out-of-workers.html
In other words, the market has assumed that it's ~80% likely that the winner will come from the 2nd SF.
I'd guess, if Wenbo makes it through, he'll be down to ~7/2 to win the final. If it's Grace, he'll be down to ~10/1. Those are back of the fag packet estimates from someone who only casually watches snooker! Good/bad/exhausting SF performances could impact those odds assumptions ^ significantly.
The police are not going to investigate anyway. Why would they? Even if true, it's very unlikely to have affected the result and they'd be immediately accused of racism.
It's a pity they let their disappointment show. Now you're going to have a few people going round mumbling "Tower Hamlets ... Tower Hamlets." etc.
Lose graciously, swallow your disappointment and learn from it.
#UKIP #oldhamwest #OldhamWestandRoyton #farage https://t.co/P1ISzPKwXx
I believe it will need a Keir Stamer type MP to help Labour.
As the English will only vote for the officer class to be PM.
Atlee , Wilson Blair all Oxbridge types only the Conservatives could get a Major type elected .
Should beat best price from the bookie on most players I imagine
I missed the bit where Corbyn was talking to ISIS.
He says we should. And given that he and McDonnell say that their links with the IRA were to advance the peace process, why are they not coming up with their own proposals to talk to IS or even going over there to do so? Corbyn also says that all wars end when the opposing sides talk to each other. Not so. To take one obvious example, WW2 didn't. Unconditional surrender was the aim and unconditional surrender is what the Allies got.
IS have never shown - by words or deeds - any desire whatever for any sort of dialogue. So the demands for talks and understanding their grievances and dialogue shows, at best, a woeful misunderstanding of the nature of the organisation we are dealing with. Corbyn et al are taking an analogue approach in a digital age.
To suggest that we should talk to Daesh is like saying we should stroke a rabid dog.
It'd be interesting to see how such a distributed storage effort would work in practice.
I hope to sell a lot of controllers to them soon. Shhh !
The judge asked "First offender?"
She replied, "No, first a Gibson, second a Fender"
I'm more a fan of anytime.
https://twitter.com/Juliet777777/status/673042699046490113
Is that a bad thing ? No, wage rates will rise.
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/179741/Code-of-conduct-for-campaigners-2015.pdf
2.3 Campaigners should never handle or take any completed ballot paper
or postal ballot packs from voters.
I do note the following paragraph that makes me think that life will not be as rosy for workers as the Professor believes.
"Professor Goodhart makes large assumptions. He doubts that robots will displace workers fast enough to offset the labour shortage, or that greying nations are culturally able to absorb enough immigrants to plug the jobs gap, or that India and Africa have the infrastructure to repeat the "China effect". "
For example IMHO driverless cars will destroy jobs for taxi drivers, delivery people and lorry drivers within 10 years.
There are very few peoples with clean hands in the Middle East.
Oldham was one of Prescott's experiments in mass postal voting.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1464017/Fraud-claims-hit-postal-voting-trials.html
Practises such as scooping up postal votes on election day to deliver to the polling stations, have probably been rife for years, just another form of GOTV and "knocking up" to the activists there?
A major part of this, is that as such counties grow richer, their internal demand for goods and services are taking off. China is actually losing manufacturing jobs - labour costs have risen to the point that automation is exploding there...
The population crunch coming will be a disaster. Also, the major gender imbalance.
Has there ever been a person less suitable in charge of a major party?
What a disgusting individual.
We're not at war with the so called Islamic State, though, are we, so there's nothing to negotiate on.
There is absolutely nothing for us to talk about. Our way of life and culture is totally incompatible with the stated aims of the so called Islamic State. Whether we bomb or not, they still want to kill us on our own streets. They will still behead, rape, burn and destroy anything that doesn't fit with their ideals.
I genuinely don't think there is a solution, short of all out ground war in the Middle East, and Draconian laws and actions back home, which won't be palatable.
As I think Sean Fear said a while back, we can't make them live like us, democracy as we like to practice it just isn't how many other countries can function, so maybe it's time we understood that, and stepped back from trying to democratise them.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-04/robots-made-fast-food-workers-obsolete-now-they-are-coming-after-these-791200-jobs
No indeed, I think its great that wages might rise. Even though I am a conservative, I don;t like wealth inequality any more than the next man.
If the global price of wages rises, as goodhart predicts, that would have huge implications right around the world. Political, economic, you name it.
This is always difficult to calculate. The same was said about computers thirty years ago, and yet there are more jobs than ever.
And of course there have been periods of high unemployment even when muscle was vital and most women weren;t even in the workforce (such as the 1930s).
It would be funny if, say in thirty years, western countries were desperately trying to attract what they could have had for free now, a huge pool of people.
But note it says "One way to view ..." It'd be interesting to see what evidence he has for that 'one way to view', and if he has any other ways to view it.
Besides, it's not as if there had not been significant Sunni-Shia violence before in Syria, brutally put down by the regime.
Iran had apparently been helping Assad before the protests began in 2011 (help going back to the election protests a few years earlier). Having another Shia state help put down protests was hardly going to endear the Sunni majority in Syria to the regime.
And that's the core of the problem: a Shai-minority dictator ruling a Shia-majority country was never going to be stable in the long term.
'Mr Benn, who supports military intervention to protect civilians, said he did not think the Government was planning to come forward with a proposal to extend air strikes from Iraq into Syria.
But asked if he thought they should, Mr Benn said: “No.” He added: “They have to come up with an overall plan, which they have not done. I think the focus for now is finding a peaceful solution to the civil war.”
The shadow Foreign Secretary added: “The most useful contribution we can make is to support as a nation the peace talks that have started. That is the single most important thing we can do.”
Mr Benn’s intervention came in a wide-ranging interview in which he said he was “certain” that Jeremy Corbyn could become Prime Minister in 2020, and revealed that he first met the Labour leader as a youngster when he was doing his homework while his dad held meetings with political supporters.
However, it is Mr Benn’s remarks against Syrian intervention which are likely to cause the most concern in Downing Street.'
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/hilary-benn-shadow-foreign-secretary-says-labour-wont-back-air-strikes-on-syria-a6734651.html
Other countries have done it differently. Bangladesh has per capita GDP 40% lower than India. Yet child mortality is lower, life expectancy is higher and the number of children born per fertile age woman is lower.
On topic, 90% of Bangladeshis are Muslims. Yet 97% of girls go to school. Higher than India and much higher than Pakistan.
Micro credit was the main stimulus.
Could I vote Tory?.... No!
Could I vote Labour? Never!
Could I vote L/Dem? I feel sick!
Could I vote Green? I'm even more sick!
Could I vote SNP? No! Never have the chance!
Could I vote BNP? Eeech! Never ever!
So the only Party I can vote for is UKIP, but I wish they would grow up quickly. I can see myself not voting for them in the future. However I will send 100 Postal votes supporting OUT, in the EU referendum.
Ann Lucas from Coventry Council replaces McMahon on the NEC. So it stays on the right.
Amusing to hear Lucas deswcribed as on the right, but I guess Mutton is more Corbynista.
Some feminists are so worried about the impact of sex robots they are urging for them to be banned.
In the world at large, we will see the first automated vehicles licensed for the road in a limited capacity quite soon - production vehicles, that is.
And the moment you need a driver on board on occasion, so the advantages largely disappear.
Hmmm...
Oldham elected an MP well to the right of Corbyn and UKIP came nowhere is the message.
https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/673139901571842048
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/12034865/Latest-pictures-show-Isil-training-camp-in-Afghanistan.html
Lets hope they decide to have a big dust up with the Taliban. That should keep them busy for many a year.
https://youtu.be/atwfWEKz00U?t=5m26s
Your browser should take you to the exact spot, but if it doesnt, start at 5m26s, listen to what the old man says....
2015 General Election- Lab 54.8%
Ukip 20.6%
Con19.0%
LDem 3.7%
Grn 1.9%
Lab Maj 34.2%
Dec 2015 By election - Lab 62.2%
Ukip 23.3%
Con 9.3%
Grn 3.7%
OMR 0.5%
Lab Maj 38.9%
Swing from Ukip to Lab - 2.35%
new thread
"An alternative derivation has been put forward. This maintains that 'hattes' were mediaeval veal pies and hence the phrase derives from them. There is some evidence that 'hattes' were a form of pie. " http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/eat-my-hat.html
Many years ago I read a variation of this (source long since forgotten), that 'hatte' was a fermented milk concoction fed Dutch kids as a tonic. Thus it was a bargaining ploy by kids which evolved into the meaning of "I'm so confident this won't happen that I'll promise to do something really undesirable if it does."
If indeed it is a venison pie, eating your hat may be quite pleasurable, depending on the cook and the recipe.